Alberta – Research Co.

United Conservatives Keep Lead Over New Democrats in Alberta

September 2, 2026August 30, 2026By Mario Canseco

Danielle Smith trails Naheed Nenshi on approval, but holds a four-point advantage on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [September 2, 2026] – The governing United Conservative Party (UCP) remains ahead of the New Democratic Party (NDP) in Alberta’s provincial political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Alberta, 46% of decided voters would support the UCP Candidate in their constituency while 43% would back the NDP.

The Progressive Tory Party of Alberta is third with 5%, followed by the Republican Party of Alberta with 2% and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition also with 2%.

The race is close in the Calgary Metropolitan Area, where the UCP has a two-point edge over the NDP (46% to 44%). The New Democrats are three points ahead of the United Conservatives in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (46% to 43%), while the governing party keeps the upper hand in the rest of the province (49% to 39%).

“Majorities of decided voters aged 35-to-54 (53%) and aged 55 and over (52%) would cast a ballot for the United Conservatives in Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (57%).”

The UCP is holding on to 86% of its voters from the 2023 provincial election, losing 6% to the Progressive Tories and 5% to the New Democrats. Nine-in-ten NDP voters in the last provincial ballot (90%) are staying with the party.

Official Opposition and NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has the highest approval rating of all party leaders in the province (49%), followed by Premier and UCP leader Danielle Smith (43%), Progressive Tory Party of Alberta leader Peter Guthrie (23%), Wildrose Loyalty Coalition leader Paul Hinman (18%) and Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies (also 18%).

On the preferred premier question, Smith has a four-point lead over Nenshi (37% to 33%), with the remaining party leaders in the low single digits.

The economy and jobs is the most important issue facing Alberta for 22% of likely voters, followed by health care (20%), housing, homelessness and poverty (13%), government accountability (11%) and national unity and separation (also 11%).

Just over a third of residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area (34%) pick the economy and jobs as the most pressing concern, while almost one-in-four residents of the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (23%) select health care.

Concerns over national unity reach 20% among Albertans aged 55 and over, 16% among NDP voters in the 2023 provincial election and 20% among Liberal Party voters in the 2025 federal election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from August 24 to August 26, 2026, among 750 likely voters in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Fewer Than 1/4 of Voters in Alberta Side with Separation

August 31, 2026August 29, 2026By Mario Canseco

Stephen Harper and Mark Carney are the most trusted sources on the issue of Alberta seceding from Canada.

Vancouver, BC [August 31, 2026] – The upcoming referendum in Alberta would see a high level of support for the questions related to immigration, but the idea of holding a binding vote on separation is not resonating with the public, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Alberta, 74% say they would vote for the province to remain in Canada, while 22% would cast a ballot in favour of the Government of Alberta commencing the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

“Support for a binding referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada is highest among Albertans aged 35-to-54 (27%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer Albertans aged 55 and over (20%) and aged 18-to-34 (18%) concur.”

The survey also outlines a drop when the questions used in a January 2026 Research Co. poll are revisited, with 26% of Albertans (-5) supporting the idea of Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada and 16% (-8) welcoming the notion of Alberta joining the United States.

The province-wide referendum scheduled for October 19 also includes questions on immigration and constitutional issues.

Majorities of likely voters in Alberta say they will vote “Yes” on the five questions related to immigration:

The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election (66%).
The Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities (65%).
The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially-funded social support programs, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now (60%).
The Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family’s use of the health care and education systems, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now (also 60%).
The Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially-funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services (58%).

Public support is decidedly lower on the four questions related to constitutional issues:

The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province’s laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province’s laws and federal laws conflict (46%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King’s Bench and Appeal courts (45%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs (41%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate (39%).

Likely voters in Alberta think that the validity of the referendum as a true representation of the wishes of the public hinges on voter turnout. Majorities believe a level of participation that ranges from 51% to 60% of registered voters (58%), from 61% to 70% of registered voters (75%) or of more than 70% of registered voters (80%) would be sufficient.

Conversely, most likely voters in Alberta believe turnouts ranging from 41% to 50% of registered voters (55%), from 31% to 40% of registered voters (69%) or fewer than 30% of registered voters (72%) would not be enough to deem the referendum as a true representation of the wishes of Albertans.

Likely voters in Alberta were asked if they trust 15 different individuals on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

More than half say they “definitely” or “probably” trust former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper (51%) and current Canadian prime minister Mark Carney (also 51%). The rating is lower for current federal Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (47%), current provincial Official Opposition leader Naheed Nenshi (46%), former Alberta premier Rachel Notley (40%), current Alberta premier Danielle Smith (37%) and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney (32%).

Fewer than a third of likely voters in Alberta trust professional hockey player Connor McDavid (26%), leader of the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) Avi Lewis (20%), Progressive Tory Party of Alberta leader Peter Guthrie (17%), Wildrose Loyalty Coalition leader Paul Hinman (13%), Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder and lawyer Jeffrey Rath (also 13%), Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre (also 13%), social media personality Marty Belanger (11%) or Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies (10%) on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

Respondents to this survey were presented with potential scenarios in the event Alberta secedes from Canada.

Likely voters are evenly divided on whether they would stay put (45%) or move out of the province (44%) if separation happens.

Residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area are more likely to say they would leave a sovereign Alberta (49%) than those who live in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (44%) or in other parts of the province (38%).

Just over half of likely voters in in Alberta (51%) think a sovereign Alberta should keep a parliamentary system (where the leader of the party with the most seats in the legislature becomes the head of government), while 19% would prefer to adopt a presidential system (with a head of government that is directly elected).

More than two-in-five likely voters in Alberta (43%) believe an independent Alberta should rely on the Canadian dollar as its currency. Fewer would prefer to establish a new currency (22%) or adopt the American dollar (16%).

Just over four-in-five likely voters in Alberta (81%) think a sovereign Alberta should maintain a publicly funded universal health care system, while half (50%) would like a sovereign Alberta to reintroduce the death penalty for murder.

Fewer likely voters in Alberta would welcome other ideas after independence, such as maintaining a Goods and Services Tax (GST) (43%), allowing Albertans to own and carry handguns for self-defence (36%), making marijuana illegal (31%), making same-sex marriage illegal (27%) or making abortion illegal (24%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Three-in-Ten Albertans Open to Independence from Canada

January 8, 2026January 7, 2026By Mario Canseco

Support for sovereignty is strongest among the province’s residents aged 18-to-34.

Vancouver, BC [January 8, 2026] – The proportion of Albertans who are in favour of sovereignty has increased over the past year and a half, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 31% of Albertans support Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada, up nine points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2023.

Just over three-in-five Albertans (62%, -9) are opposed to independence, while 7% (=) are undecided.

“By a 2-to-1 margin, Albertans currently express a desire to remain in Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Still, the growth of separatist sentiment is significant across some groups.”

More than two-in-five Albertans aged 18-to-34 (42%, +15) support Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada. The proportions are lower among those aged 35-to-54 (27%, +2) and those aged 55 and over (25%, +9).

Separatist feelings rose across all three major regions of the province. More than three-in-ten residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area (31%, +5) voice support for an independent Alberta, along with 29% of residents of the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (+5) and 34% of those who live elsewhere in the province (+11).

Albertans who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the 2023 provincial election are significantly more likely to back independence (40%, +11) than those who cast ballots for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (11%, +2).

In a separate question, just under one-in-four Albertans (24%, +5) support their province joining the United States, while more than seven-in-ten (72%, -2) disagree and 5% (-2) are not sure.

The notion of Alberta becoming an American state is more popular among Albertans aged 18-to-34 (32%), those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (27%) and UCP voters in the 2023 provincial election (29%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from January 4 to January 6, 2026, among 703 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Perception of Crime Highest in Manitoba, Lowest in Saskatchewan

April 12, 2024April 11, 2024By Mario Canseco

More than half of British Columbians and Albertans believe criminal activity has increased in the past four years.

Vancouver, BC [April 12, 2024] – Residents of Manitoba are more likely to believe that crime is on the rise in their community, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative samples in five Canadian provinces, 63% of Manitobans say the level of criminal activity has increased in their community over the past four years, up nine points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in November 2020.

The proportions of residents who feel this way are lower in British Columbia (54%, -4 since 2023), Alberta (also 54%, +6 since 2020), Ontario (48%) and Saskatchewan (42%, +1 since 2020).

Fewer than one-in-four residents of Alberta (23%, -1), Saskatchewan (20%, -7), Manitoba (18%, -13), British Columbia (17%, -1) and Ontario (14%) have been victims of a crime involving the police (such as an assault or a car break-in) in their community over the past four years.

Majorities of Manitobans (54%), Albertans (also 54%) and British Columbians (51%, -1) say they fear becoming victims of a crime in their community “a great deal” or “a fair amount”. The proportions are lower in Ontario (45%) and Saskatchewan (37%).

More than seven-in-ten Ontarians (71%) say they would feel “very safe” or “moderately safe” walking alone in their own neighbourhood after dark. Majorities of respondents in Saskatchewan (65%), British Columbia (also 65%, +2), Alberta (63%) and Manitoba (57%) express the same view.

Residents of the five Canadian provinces hold differing views when asked about which factors are to blame “a great deal” for the current situation regarding crime and public safety in your community.

More than half of British Columbians (56%, -3) mention addiction and mental health issues, followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (39%, -2), poverty and inequality (36%, +2), an inadequate court system (35%, -4) and a bad economy and unemployment (29%, +7).

Albertans also place addiction and mental health issues at the top of their list (48%), followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (33%), an inadequate court system (also 33%), poverty and inequality (31%) and bad economy and unemployment (also 31%).

In Saskatchewan, at least two-in-five residents blame gangs and the illegal drug trade (43%) and addiction and mental health issues (40%), followed by poverty and inequality (30%), lack of values and improper education for youth (29%) and an inadequate court system (27%).

Most Manitobans (56%) blame addiction and mental health issues, followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (44%), an inadequate court system (35%), poverty and inequality (34%), and lack of values and improper education for youth (30%).

In Ontario, addiction and mental health issues garner the most mentions (39%), followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (35%), poverty and inequality (31%), lack of values and improper education for youth (30%) and bad economy and unemployment (29%).

“Most residents of these five Canadian provinces gravitate primarily to addiction and mental health when thinking about crime and public safety,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In no province do we see at least three-in-ten respondents blaming insufficient policing or lack of resources to combat crime for the current situation.”

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted from March 29 to March 31, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults in Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan, 600 adults in Manitoba and 600 adults in Ontario. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region for each province. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, 19 times out of 20.

Find the data tables for British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Fewer Than One-in-Four Albertans Consent to Full Independence

July 7, 2023July 6, 2023By Mario Canseco

Support rises slightly if other Canadian provinces join in, but majorities reject all scenarios.

Vancouver, BC [July 7, 2023] – Compared to early 2021, fewer Albertans are openly welcoming the concept of outright sovereignty, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, only 22% of Albertans agree with the idea of Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada, down three points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in February 2021.

Residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area are more likely to support the notion of a sovereign Alberta (26%) than their counterparts in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (18%) and all other regions of the province (23%).

While only 9% of Albertans who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in this year’s provincial election favour the idea of Alberta’s independence, the proportion rises to 29% among those who cast ballots for the governing United Conservative Party (UCP).

The survey presented respondents with three other scenarios related to sovereignty.

Just under one-in-four Albertans (23%, -3) would consent to Alberta and Saskatchewan becoming a country independent from Canada, including 32% of those who do not reside in either of the two main metropolitan areas.

The creation of a nation encompassing Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba garners the backing of 25% of Albertans, while a sovereign country including Canada’s four western provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia—is supported by 30% of Albertans.

“A third of Albertans aged 35-to-54 (33%) endorse the concept of a nation that featured Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia as its components,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are slightly lower among those aged 18-to-34 (30%) and aged 55 and over (28%).”

More than three-in-five Albertans reject each of the four proposals for sovereignty, whether the plan entails only Alberta (71%) or includes Saskatchewan (69%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (67%) or Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia (61%).

Fewer than one-in-five Albertans (19%, +1) would agree with Alberta joining the United States—a feeling that is highest among those aged 18-to-34 (31%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 10 to June 12, 2023, among 800 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Kelly Tarala

Majorities in British Columbia and Alberta Agree on TMX Pipeline

June 21, 2023July 3, 2023By Mario Canseco

The proportion of British Columbians who think the provincial government should stop the project has dropped to 28%.

Vancouver, BC [June 21, 2023] – More than half of British Columbians and two thirds of Albertans believe the federal government was right in re-approving the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 54% of British Columbians agree with the decision, up three points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in July 2022. Two thirds of Albertans (67%, -2) also agree with the re-approval of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion.

In British Columbia, support for the project is highest in Northern BC (62%), followed by Southern BC (61%), the Fraser Valley (58%), Metro Vancouver (53%) and Vancouver Island (52%).

In Alberta, there is virtually no variation in the perceptions of residents of the Calgary CMA (67%), Edmonton CMA (also 67%) and the rest of the province (68%).

Significant majorities of Albertans (79%, +1) and British Columbians (71%, =) believe the Trans Mountain pipeline will create hundreds of jobs for residents of their province.

The public is decidedly more skeptical about the effect the Trans Mountain pipeline will have on fuel costs. Fewer than two-in-five Albertans (37%, -3) and British Columbians (36%, -1) expect to experience lower gas prices as a result of the project’s re-approval.

“Albertans are particularly critical of the federal government on the Trans Mountain file, with 60% (-1) saying they are disappointed with Ottawa’s performance,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer than half of British Columbians (48%, -3) share this feeling.”

Only 20% of Albertans (-5) and 28% of British Columbians (-5) think their provincial government should do anything necessary to ensure that the Trans Mountain expansion does not happen. This is a significant change in British Columbia from a Research Co. survey conducted in June 2019, when 41% of the province’s residents called for government action to stop the project.

One-in-four Albertans (25%, -3) and more than a third of British Columbians (36%, -4) believe the Trans Mountain expansion threatens the health and safety of residents.

British Columbians remain divided on whether this would be a good time to reconsider the Enbridge Northern Gateway—a proposal to build a new pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s north coast, to export oil on tankers to Asian markets—which was rejected by the federal government in November 2016.

Fewer than half of British Columbians (44%, -2) would agree to take a second look at the proposal, while three-in-ten (30%, +4) disagree.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 10 to June 12, 2023, among 800 adults in British Columbia and 800 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points for each province, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables for British Columbia here, our data tables for Alberta here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Alberta Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

May 31, 2023September 17, 2023By Mario Canseco

Ideas and policies won the election for the UCP, but things could have been different if the previous leader had decided to stick around.

Vancouver, BC [May 31, 2023] – Prior to the televised debate in Alberta’s provincial election, the New Democratic Party (NDP) had a slight two-point edge over the United Conservative Party (UCP) in a Research Co. survey. NDP leader Rachel Notley was connecting on her party’s traditional strengths—health care and education—and even was ahead of the UCP’s Danielle Smith on the preferred premier question. Smith was seen as a superior choice to deal with the energy file and was regarded as a better economic manager, but not by much.

After the debate and in the final days of campaigning, our final poll focused on likely voters, as well as those who had already cast their ballot prior to Election Day. The NDP saw its significant 26-point advantage in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (61% to 35%), which had been enough to put the party in first place provincewide, fall to 13 points (55% to 42%). Still significant, but not overwhelming.

In the Calgary Metropolitan Area, the lead for the UCP fell to three points (50% to 47%). In the remaining areas of the province, two thirds of decided voters (68%) told us they would support the UCP, and fewer than three-in-ten (28%) were casting a ballot for the NDP. Our final forecast in the three regions deviates by a couple of points or less from the final results published by Elections Alberta.

Our “Exit Poll” outlines why the UCP consolidated the vote in the final stages of the campaign. Ideas and policies were the most important factor for 44% of voters in Alberta. On this indicator, UCP supporters have a higher score than their NDP counterparts (48% to 39%). Practically half of Albertans who voted for the winning party had ideas and policies in mind. This is higher than the percentages observed for the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario (40%) and the CAQ in Quebec (28%) in last year’s provincial elections.

Just over one-in-four voters in Alberta (26%) told us that the main motivator for their vote was the party’s leader. NDP supporters were more likely to be casting a ballot for Notley (33%) than UCP supporters directly endorsing Smith (22%). All other possible factors are ranked significantly lower: disgust with other contending candidates (11%), the party’s candidate in the riding (8%), desire for stability (also 8%) and desire for change (also 8%).

In an election where only two contending parties have a chance of winning seats, asking about “strategic voting” makes little sense. Instead, we relied on three questions to figure out specific feelings. The negativity was not intense. About one-in-four voters said they cast a ballot for a candidate or party they dislike (23%) or voted to avoid policies they dislike (24%).

Perceptions on the future are another matter. Only 42% of voters in Alberta thought the province would be in a good place, regardless of who won the election. This leaves practically three-in-five voters (58%) who expected Alberta to be in a bad place if a specific party emerged victorious. The polarization is palpable when we look at this question by party support: 60% of UCP voters and 59% of NDP voters predicted hard times if “the other party” formed the government.

At this moment, following the concession and victory speeches, one could assume that the Premier and the Leader of the Opposition would face each other again in 2027. Albertans, who flirted with smaller parties for months, are ready for fresh faces. Almost four-in-five (79%) wish that the province had better people serving as leaders of the main political parties. Of course, each side seems to be blaming someone else: 82% of NDP voters and 81% of UCP voters appear to thoroughly dislike each other’s standard-bearers.

Finally, we take a look at the first leader of the UCP. When asked if they would cast a ballot for the party if Jason Kenney was still in command, 42% of voters in Alberta agreed—a proportion that rises to 50% among men and 49% among those aged 55 and over.

The stark contrast is outside of Calgary and Edmonton, where only 38% of voters were ready to back the UCP with Kenney as leader—a severe drop from the 68% who voted for the party under Smith this year. The former premier may have lost the rural areas after failing to strike the right balance on COVID-19. This precipitated the creation of alternatives, such as the minor parties that, ultimately, did not come close to running full slates of candidates.

Smith, who recovered in time to be ahead on the Best Premier question on our final poll of the campaign, deserves credit for keeping the UCP together. Only 64% of UCP voters in 2023 would have supported the party with Kenney as leader. Some may say that this year’s election yielded a lower seat count and a diminished popular vote to the UCP, but these comparisons are being made with the best version of Kenney that existed and was no longer available in 2020, 2021 and 2022. This election would have been very different if the UCP had not changed leaders.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 29 and May 30, 2023, among 500 adults in Alberta who voted in the 2023 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Photo Credit: Marcel Schoenhardt

Support for UCP Consolidates in Final Stages of Alberta Campaign

May 27, 2023September 17, 2023By Mario Canseco

UCP leader Danielle Smith now has a small lead over the NDP’s Rachel Notley in the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [May 27, 2023] – The governing United Conservative Party (UCP) is ahead of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, half of decided voters in Alberta (50%) would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their constituency in this Monday’s election, while 46% would support the NDP.

“Since our previous survey conducted in mid-May, voter support for the UCP has increased by three points across Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, the NDP’s province-wide numbers are down by the same margin.”

Four per cent of decided voters are backing other parties, including the Green Party (1%, =) and the Solidarity Movement (also 1%, =).

The NDP was ahead of the UCP in Edmonton by 16 points earlier this month, but currently has a significantly smaller advantage (55% to 42%). The UCP holds the upper hand in Calgary (50% to 47%) and has expanded its advantage in the remaining regions of the province (68% to 28%).

Only 15% of decided voters say they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate on Monday’s election. NDP voters are more certain of their choice (95%) than UCP supporters (86%).

Over the past 10 days, the approval rating for Premier and UCP leader Danielle Smith increased from 39% to 47% across Alberta. Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley experienced a more modest rise, from 50% to 53%.

Fewer than one-in-four likely voters in Alberta approve of the way Green leader Jordan Wilkie (22%, +7) and Solidarity leader Artur Pawlowski (18%, +7) have handled their duties

On the momentum question, just over one-in-four likely voters in Alberta (26%) have an improved opinion of Smith since the start of the campaign, while 38% say it is worse now. Notley’s score on this indicator is even (27% improved, 27% worsened).

Smith heads to Election Day with a two-point edge over Notley on being regarded as the best premier for the province (43% to 41%). In our previous survey, Notley was ahead of Smith by five points.

As was the case in the middle of the campaign, Albertans point to two issues as the most important challenges facing the province right now: health care (27%, -2) and the economy and jobs (also 27%, =).

Housing, poverty and homelessness is third on the list of concerns with 12% (+4), followed by crime and public safety (8%, =) and government accountability (7%, =).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 26 and May 27, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Alberta, including 571 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Tight Race in Alberta as Support for Minor Parties Fizzles

May 18, 2023September 17, 2023By Mario Canseco

Rachel Notley is ahead of Danielle Smith when Albertans are asked who would make the best head of government.

Vancouver, BC [May 18, 2023] – Alberta’s two main political parties are virtually tied as voters ponder their choices in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta would support the New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding in this month’s election, while 47% would cast a ballot for the governing United Conservative Party (UCP).

Only 4% of decided voters in Alberta are currently choosing candidates from other parties, including the Green Party (1%) and the Solidarity Movement (also 1%).

Support for the UCP has increased by 17 points since a Research Co. survey conducted in March 2022, when Jason Kenney was still Alberta’s premier. The NDP has gained four points in that span, as voter support for third parties declined from 25% to just 4%.

At this stage of the campaign, the NDP has a significant advantage among decided voters in Edmonton (61% to 35%). The UCP is ahead in Calgary (52% to 44%) and in the remaining regions of the province (63% to 31%).

“Just under one-in-five decided voters in Alberta (19%) say they may change their mind and support a different party’s candidate in the election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This includes 27% of those aged 18-to-34 and 24% of those who do not reside in the Calgary or Edmonton metropolitan areas.”

Two topics continue to dominate when Albertans are asked about the most important issue facing the province: health care (29%, -1) and the economy and jobs (27%, -2). All other perceived challenges are in single digits, including crime and public safety (8%, +6), housing, poverty and homelessness (also 8%, +1) and government accountability (7%, -6).

Half of the province’s residents (50%, +1) approve of the way Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley is handling her duties. The rating is lower for Premier and UCP leader Danielle Smith (39%), Green leader Jordan Wilkie (15%, -5) and Solidarity leader Artur Pawlowski (11%).

All four party leaders post a negative momentum score: -2 for Notley, -7 for Wilkie, -15 for Pawlowski and -25 for Smith.

On the preferred premier question, Notley holds a five-point advantage over Smith (43% to 38%), with significant support from women (48%) and Albertans aged 18-to-34 (52%).

When asked which of the two party leaders is better suited to manage specific issues, Notley holds the upper hand on health care (50% to 32%), education (49% to 31%), the environment (47% to 29%), housing, poverty and homelessness (45% to 29%), accountability (45% to 34%), seniors care (44% to 29%) and child care (43% to 28%).

Smith is ahead on energy and pipelines (50% to 28%), the economy and jobs (44% to 35%), managing the province’s finances (40% to 37%), crime and public safety (39% to 34%) and transportation projects (37% to 33%).

The two leaders are tied, each with 38%, when Albertans ponder who would be the best at creating jobs.

Only 16% of Albertans (-5) support the introduction of a provincial sales tax (PST), while more than three-in-four (77%, +5) are opposed to it.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 16 and May 17, 2023, among 600 adults in Alberta, including 529 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Fewer Than One-in-Four Albertans Support Outright Sovereignty

September 2, 2022September 7, 2022By Mario Canseco

Public backing for the creation of an independent state rises if other western provinces join the new nation.

Vancouver, BC [September 2, 2022] – Few Albertans openly endorse the idea of their province becoming a sovereign entity, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 23% of Albertans support their province becoming a country independent from Canada, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February 2021. Seven-in-ten Albertans (70%, +1) are opposed to this idea.

Support for establishing an independent country encompassing Alberta and Saskatchewan reaches 24% (-2). The same proportion of Albertans (24%) would welcome the creation of a sovereign state featuring their province, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The notion of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia becoming a country independent from Canada is supported by three-in-ten Albertans (30%), while just over three-in-five (61%) are opposed.

Almost three-in-four Albertans (73%, -3) oppose the idea of Alberta joining the United States, while 21% (+3) are supportive—including 26% of those aged 18-to-34.

Just over three-in-five Albertans (61%, +2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in July 2019) consider themselves “Canadians first, Albertans second.” Fewer than three-in-ten (28%, +1) say they are “Albertans first, Canadians second.”

“There is a remarkable political divide when Albertans ponder their allegiance to province and country,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 17% of those who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the last provincial election say they are Albertans first, the proportion rises to 45% among those who supported the United Conservative Party (UCP).”

More than a third of Albertans (37%, -7) believe Ralph Klein is the best premier the province has had since November 1985. Rachel Notley is second on the list with 20% (+3).

When asked to name the worst recent premier of the province, two-in-five Albertans (40%, +37) select current head of government Jason Kenney. Notley (19%, -7) and Alison Redford (12%, -13) are the only former premiers to reach double-digits on this question.

Half of Albertans (50%) say they would move to British Columbia if they had to leave and relocate to another Canadian province. Saskatchewan is a distant second with 11%, followed by Ontario with 10% and Nova Scotia with 4%.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 21 to August 23, 2022, among 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Positive Views on TMX Pipeline Rise in BC, Drop Slightly in Alberta

August 5, 2022August 5, 2022By Mario Canseco

A third of British Columbians (33%) believe the project should be stopped, down eight points since October 2021.

Vancouver, BC [August 5, 2022] – Favourable perceptions on the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline have increased in British Columbia and remain high in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 51% of British Columbians agree with the federal government’s decision to re-approve the project, up six points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2021.

Practically seven-in-ten Albertans (69%) also agree with the re-approval of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, down five points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in November 2020.

In British Columbia, residents of Southern BC (66%), Northern BC (61%) and the Fraser Valley (58%) are more likely to hold positive views on the pipeline project. The rating is lower in Metro Vancouver (50%) and Vancouver Island (41%).

In Alberta, sizeable majorities of residents of Edmonton (72%) and Calgary (66%) are in favour of the pipeline expansion, along with 70% of those who live other areas of the province.

“The proportion of British Columbians who want the provincial government to do anything necessary to ensure that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion does not happen dropped from 41% in October 2021 to 33% in July 2022,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Alberta, 25% of residents (+3) share the same point of view.”

More than half of British Columbians (51%, -4) and three-in-five Albertans (61%, +2) say they are disappointed with the way the federal government has managed the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion.

Significant majorities of Albertans (78%, -1) and British Columbians (71%, +6) believe the Trans Mountain Pipeline will create hundreds of jobs for residents of each province.

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, -7) think the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion threatens the health and safety of the province’s residents. Just under three-in-ten Albertans (28%, +11) share this point of view.

Fewer than half of residents of the two provinces expect gas prices to be lower now that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion has been re-approved: 40% in Alberta (+6) and 37% in British Columbia (+1).

In November 2016, the federal government rejected a proposal—known as the Enbridge Northern Gateway—to build a new pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s north coast, to export oil on tankers to Asian markets.

Just under half of British Columbians (46%, +5) believe it is time to reconsider the Enbridge Northern Gateway proposal, while just over a quarter (27%, -7) disagree.

Support for taking a second look at the Enbridge Northern Gateway is highest in Northern BC (60%), followed by Southern BC (51%), Metro Vancouver (45%), the Fraser Valley (43%) and Vancouver Island (38%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 29 to July 31, 2022, among 800 adults in British Columbia and 800 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points for each province, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables for British Columbia here, our data tables for Alberta here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Codex

Support for Governing United Conservative Party Drops in Alberta

March 14, 2022March 13, 2022By Mario Canseco

Just over one-in-four of the province’s residents approve of the performance of Jason Kenney as premier.

Vancouver, BC [March 14, 2022] – The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a significant lead over the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would support the NDP candidate in their constituency if a provincial election were held today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.

The governing UCP is a distant second with 30% (-10), followed by the Wildrose Independence Party with 8% (+6), the Alberta Party with 7% (-2), the Liberal Party with 5% (+3), the Green Party with 3% (+1) and the Independence Party with 1%.

The NDP is ahead of the UCP by eight points among male decided voters (40% to 32%) and by 21 points among female decided voters (49% to 28%).

The New Democrats hold significant advantages over the United Conservatives in Edmonton (50% to 25%) and Calgary (47% to 34%). In all other areas of the province, the UCP is barely ahead of the NDP (33% to 31%).

“The UCP is evidently having difficulties maintaining the base together,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While the NDP is keeping 89% of its supporters in the 2019 provincial election, the UCP is only managing to hold on to 51% of their voters.”

Only 26% of Albertans (-16) approve of the way Premier and UCP leader Jason Kenney is managing his duties, while 66% (+16) disapprove.

Almost half of the province’s residents (49%, +4) are satisfied with the performance of Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley.

The approval rating is lower for interim Liberal Party leader John Roggeveen (22%), Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie (20%, +4), Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita (18%), Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman (18%, +2) and Independence Party leader Vicky Bayford (13%).

More than a third of Albertans (36%) believe Notley would make the best premier among seven party leaders. Kenney is second with 17%, with all other contenders in single digits.

When Albertans are asked about the most important issue facing the province, similar proportions select health care (30%, +3) and the economy and jobs (29%, -14). Government accountability is third (13%, +6) followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (7%, +4) and COVID-19 (6%, =).

Animosity towards the idea of implementing a provincial sales tax (PST) has grown in Alberta since December 2020. This month, more than seven-in-ten residents of the province (72%, +7) voice opposition to this idea—including 86% of UCP voters and 65% of NDP voters in 2019.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from March 11 to March 13, 2022, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

One-in-Four Albertans Support Becoming an Independent Nation

February 16, 2021February 11, 2021By Mario Canseco

The idea of independence is more appealing to the province’s residents if Saskatchewan and British Columbia join in.

Vancouver, BC [February 16, 2021] – Support for the formation of a country independent of Canada grows in both Alberta and Saskatchewan if British Columbia is included in the territory, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of Canadians in the three western provinces gauged support for sovereignty under various scenarios.

The idea of an independent country that would encompass British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan is appealing to 29% of both Albertans and Saskatchewanians, but only to 12% of British Columbians.

Almost half of Albertans who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the 2019 provincial election (47%), more than a third of men in Saskatchewan (35%) and almost three-in-ten residents of Northern BC (28%) voice support for an independent country encompassing the three western provinces.

In this survey, one-in-four Albertans (25%) are in favour of their province becoming a country independent from Canada. This level of support is consistent with what was observed in similar questions asked by Research Co. in December 2018 (25%) but lower than the numbers registered in July 2019 (30%).

Fewer than one-in-six residents of Saskatchewan (16%) and British Columbia (12%) are in favour of their respective provinces becoming sovereign on their own.

When asked about the possibility of an independent nation encompassing Alberta and Saskatchewan, one-in-four Albertans (26%) and one-in-five Saskatchewanians (21%) are in favour.

Only 13% of British Columbians agree with the prospect of forming a sovereign nation with Alberta. While 18% of Albertans support their province joining the United States, only 7% of British Columbians concur.

Residents of the three provinces were also asked about their perceptions of specific levels of government. At least three-in-five Saskatchewanians (62%) and British Columbians (60%) consider their own provincial government as “very responsive” or moderately responsive” to their needs and the needs of other residents. In Alberta, only 43% of respondents feel the same way.

“In Alberta, the criticism towards the provincial government is not coming exclusively from supporters of opposition parties,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Half of those who voted for the UCP in 2019 (50%) believe that the current administration is responsive, but two-in-five (41%) do not.”

The responsiveness of local governments was rated positively by majorities of residents in each of the three provinces (64% in Saskatchewan, 60% in British Columbia and 58% in Alberta).

While more than two-in-five British Columbians (45%) believe the federal government is responsive to their needs, the proportion drops to 32% in Alberta and 26% in Saskatchewan.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from February 7 to February 9, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults in Alberta and 600 adults in Saskatchewan. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta and Saskatchewan, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables for British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Western Canadians Support Banning Single-Use Plastics

January 12, 2021January 11, 2021By Mario Canseco

Majorities of residents of the four Canadian provinces say they are relying on reusable bags when shopping for groceries.

Vancouver, BC [January 12, 2021] – The federal government’s plan to curb the use of single-use plastics in Canada is supported by most residents of the four western provinces, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 82% of British Columbians, 78% of Manitobans, 71% of Albertans and 69% of Saskatchewanians support the proposal.

The federal plan calls for as ban on grocery checkout bags, straws, stir sticks, six-pack rings, plastic cutlery and food takeout containers made from hard-to-recycle plastics.

Support for the ban on single-use plastics is highest among British Columbians who voted for the BC Green Party in the 2020 provincial election (91%), as well as those who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the most recent provincial democratic processes held in Saskatchewan (90%) and Alberta (86%).

In British Columbia, more than three-in-four respondents to this survey (77%) say they rely on their own re-usable bag when shopping for groceries—a proportion that rises to 80% among those aged 35-to-54.

Majorities of residents of Alberta (69%), Saskatchewan (64%) and Manitoba (60%) are also using their own bags when they shop for groceries, instead of bags provided by the stores.

More than half of British Columbians (54%) say they go out of their way to recycle—such as holding on to bottles and cans until they can be placed into a proper recycling bin—“all of the time”. The proportion for this particular behaviour is slightly lower in Saskatchewan (50%), Manitoba (48%) and Alberta (46%).

One-in-four British Columbians (26%) say they limit hot water usage in their home—taking shorter showers or running the washing machine or dishwasher with full loads only—“all of the time”, compared to 19% in both Alberta and Saskatchewan and 17% in Manitoba.

Other behaviours are not as widely embraced across Western Canada. While 13% of British Columbians and 11% of Albertans say they unplug electrical devices in their home—such as TVs, computers and cell phone chargers—when they are not in use “all of the time”, only 5% of Saskatchewanians and 4% of Manitobans follow the same course of action.

Fewer than one-in-ten residents of each province say they buy biodegradable products or eat organic or home-grown foods “all of the time.”

“Western Canadians aged 55 and over are more likely to be keeping an eye on hot water usage in their homes,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, those aged 18-to-34 have been quicker to adopt biodegradable products.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from January 4 to January 6, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults In Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan and 600 adults in Manitoba. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Opposition NDP Edges Ahead of Governing UCP in Alberta

December 7, 2020December 6, 2020By Mario Canseco

Almost two thirds of the province’s residents (65%) oppose the introduction of a provincial sales tax (PST).

Vancouver, BC [December 7, 2020] – The New Democratic party (NDP) holds the upper hand in Alberta’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 43% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the opposition NDP if a provincial election were held today, while 40% would support the governing United Conservative Party (UCP).

The Alberta Party is third with 9%, followed by the Green Party (2%), the Liberal party (also 2%) and the Wildrose Independence Party (also 2%).

The NDP holds a 10-point lead over the UCP among female decided voters (46% to 36%), while the governing party is ahead among male voters (43% to 41%).

The UCP is the top choice for decided voters aged 55 and over (48% to 38%) while the NDP leads among those aged 18-to-34 (45% to 36%) and those aged 35-to-54 (42% to 39%).

The NDP has a sizeable lead in Edmonton (55% to 30%), while the UCP is slightly ahead in Calgary (44% to 42%) and holds a substantial advantage in the rest of the province (49% to 32%).

“The United Conservative Party is holding on to 74% of its voters from the 2019 election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Some former UCP voters are currently looking at supporting the New Democrats (11%), the Alberta Party (7%) and the Wildrose Independence Party (5%).”

Across the province, just over two-in-five Albertans (42%) approve of the way Premier and UCP leader Jason Kenney is handling his duties while half (50%) disapprove. Residents are split when assessing the performance of official opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley (Approve 45%, Disapprove 46%).

The approval ratings are significantly lower for Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie (16%), interim Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman (also 16%) and Alberta Party interim leader Jacquie Fenske (15%).

The economy and jobs is identified as the most important issue facing the province by 43% of Albertans, followed by health care (27%), government accountability (7%), COVID-19 (6%) and energy and pipelines (4%).

When asked about the possible introduction of a provincial sales tax (PST) given Alberta’s fiscal challenges, almost two thirds of residents (65%) voiced opposition to the idea, while 28% supported it.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from December 2 to December 4, 2020, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Western Canadians Perceive Increase in Criminal Activity

November 24, 2020January 5, 2021By Mario Canseco

Fewer than a third of residents of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have reported crimes to the police.

Vancouver, BC [November 24, 2020] – More than two-in-five residents of four Canadian provinces believe that unlawful activity is on the rise in their communities, even if significantly fewer have actually been victims of crime, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 54% of Manitobans say the level of criminal activity has increased in their community over the past three years.

Almost half of Albertans (48%) also feel that criminal activity in their communities has risen in the past three years. The numbers are slightly lower in British Columbia (42%) and Saskatchewan (41%).

The proportion of residents of the four western provinces who feel crime has decreased is in single digits (7% in Manitoba, 6% in Alberta and British Columbia, and 5% in Saskatchewan).

When respondents are asked if they have been victims of a crime that was reported to the police (such as an assault or a car break-in) in their community, only 20% of British Columbians answered affirmatively. The proportion is higher in Alberta (24%), Saskatchewan (27%) and Manitoba (31%).

“There is a clear divide between perceptions of crime and the reality that communities across Western Canada are reporting,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Respondents are significantly more likely to believe that unlawful activity has increased than to have personally experienced crime.”

In British Columbia, three-in-ten residents of Northern BC (31%) and one-in-five residents of Metro Vancouver (21%) say that they have been victims of a crime that was reported to the police over the past three years.

In Alberta, residents of Edmonton are more likely to have experienced crime (26%) than those in Calgary (22%) or in the rest of the province (23%).

A similar situation is observed in Saskatchewan, where more residents of Saskatoon (28%) say they have been victims of crime than those who live in Regina (24%) or in the rest of the province (18%).

In Manitoba, the proportion criminal activity reported to the police stands at 29% in Winnipeg and at 33% in the remaining areas of the province.

The groups that are more likely to believe that criminal activity is on the rise in their communities are British Columbians aged 55 and over (45%), Albertans aged 55 and over (56%), women in Saskatchewan (45%) and Manitobans aged 35-to-54 (58%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults In Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan and 600 adults in Manitoba. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and+/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half in BC, Three-in-Four in Alberta Agree with Pipeline Expansion

November 10, 2020November 10, 2020By Mario Canseco

Majorities of Albertans and British Columbians are disappointed with the way the federal government has handled this issue.

Vancouver, BC [November 10, 2020] – Just over half of British Columbians and practically three-in-four Albertans want to carry on with the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 52% of British Columbians and 74% of Albertans agree with the federal government’s decision to re-approve the project.

“There is a higher level of support for the pipeline’s expansion from residents aged 55 and over in both British Columbia (60%) and Alberta (83%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Agreement with the federal government’s decision is lower among those aged 18-to-34 In each province (44% in BC, 68% in Alberta).”

In British Columbia, agreement with the pipeline expansion has dropped by four points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in December 2019.

Opposition to the project fell by six points in British Columbia (from 35% to 29%) , while the proportion of undecided respondents increased from 10% last year to 18% now.

More than half of residents of each Canadian province (59% in Alberta and 54% in British Columbia) are disappointed with the way the federal government has handled the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion. These groups include 66% of Green Party voters in British Columbia and 70% of United Conservative Party voters in Alberta.

While two-in-five British Columbians (40%) want the provincial government to do anything necessary to ensure that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion does not happen, the proportion of Albertans who feel the same way about the actions of their own provincial administration stands at 22%.

Only 17% of Albertans believe the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion threatens the health and safety of the province’s residents. The proportion is significantly higher in British Columbia (44%).

Two thirds of British Columbians (68%) and four-in-five Albertans (79%) believe the Trans Mountain Pipeline will create hundreds of jobs for residents of each province.

More than a third of Albertans (34%) and British Columbians (38%) believe gas prices will be lower now that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion has been re-approved.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 29 to October 31, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia, and an online study conducted from November 2 to November 4, 2020, among 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia and Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 3.4 percentage points for Alberta, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables for British Columbia here, our data tables for Alberta here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

If Forced to Relocate, Almost Half of Albertans Would Pick BC

August 28, 2019September 27, 2019By Mario Canseco

Just over one-in-four British Columbians would select Alberta as the province to resettle.

Vancouver, BC [August 27, 2019] – A significant proportion of Albertans would welcome relocating to British Columbia if circumstances called for a move, a new two-province Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 47% of Albertans say they would choose British Columbia if they had to move out of Alberta and live in any other region of Canada.

Ontario and Saskatchewan are tied as the second Canadian destination for Albertans with 11% each, followed by Nova Scotia at 4%.

“A majority of Edmontonians (53%) would choose British Columbia if they were compelled to move away from Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “But more than two-in-five Calgarians (45%) and residents of other parts of Alberta (42%) are willing to join them.”

In British Columbia, 26% of residents say they would move to Alberta if they had to leave British Columbia and resettle in a different Canadian province.

Ontario is second in the minds of British Columbians with 16%, followed by Nova Scotia with 8%. One third of residents (33%) are undecided about which province they would move to.

While more residents of Metro Vancouver express a preference to resettle in Ontario (24%) than in Alberta (20%), all other regions of the province select Alberta first, including 33% of those in Northern BC and 32% of those in the Fraser Valley.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia and 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia and Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the British Columbia sample and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the Alberta sample, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Albertans Evenly Divided on Attachment to the United States

August 7, 2019September 27, 2019By Mario Canseco

Three-in-ten residents think Alberta would be “better off as its own country”, up five points since December 2018.

Vancouver, BC [August 7, 2019] – Residents of Alberta are split when asked if they have “more in common with Americans than with those in other parts of Canada”, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 43% of Albertans agree with this statement, while 43% disagree with it and 14% are undecided.

Almost half of respondents aged 18-to-34 (47%) and aged 55 and over (also 47%) think Albertans have more in common with Americans than with other Canadians. The proportion drops to 37% among respondents aged 35-to-54.

While a majority of those who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the last provincial election believe Albertans have more in common with Americans than with other Canadians (56%), only 29% of those who voted for the provincial New Democratic Party (NDP) in last April’s ballot concur.

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%, +5 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2018) believe Alberta would be better off as its own country, while 62% (-7) disagree.

“The proportion of Albertans who appear to be flirting with separation has risen,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “It is important to note that the level of strong disagreement with this statement dropped from 58% in December 2018 to 44% now.”

More than a quarter of respondents (27%, -4 since December 2018) say they consider themselves “Albertans first, and Canadians second”—a proportion that rises to 34% among those aged 55 and over, 34% for those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton and 37% among those who voted for the UCP in the last provincial election.

Conversely, three-in-five respondents (59%, -1) say they are “Canadians first, and Albertans second.”

A majority of Albertans (56%) think their views “are different from the rest of the country”—including 64% of men, 63% of those aged 55 and over and 72% of UCP voters.

More than two-in-five Albertans (44%) believe Ralph Klein has been the best Premier of Alberta since November 1985, followed by Rachel Notley with 17% and Don Getty with 6%.

When asked who they believe has been the worst recent premier, 26% of Albertans select Notley, followed by Alison Redford (25%) and Klein (11%).

Photo Credit: Zeitlupe

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2019, among 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservatives Extend Their Lead in Alberta

April 15, 2019June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Opposition leader Jason Kenney has overtaken incumbent Rachel Notley as the “Best Premier” for the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 15, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) has extended its advantage in the final stages of the provincial campaign in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta (+4 since a Research Co. poll completed in early April) would support the UCP candidate in their riding in tomorrow’s provincial ballot.

The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 39% (-1), followed by the Alberta Party with 9% (+3) and the Liberal Party with 2% (-1). Two per cent of decided voters would back other parties or candidates.

The level of undecided voters across Alberta has dropped from 22% in early April to 10% in this survey. In the rural areas of the province, only 9% of residents are currently undecided (compared to 27% earlier this month).

Among decided voters, the UCP holds sizeable advantages over the NDP in three distinct demographics: men (57% to 29%), Albertans aged 55 and over (59% to 33%) and those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (60% to 29%).

The opposition UCP is also the top choice for Albertans aged 35-to-54 (46% to 41%) and Calgarians (48% to 37%).

Conversely, the NDP is ahead of the UCP among women (48% to 40%), Albertans aged 18-to-34 (47% to 38%) and those who live in Edmonton (46% to 40%).

“The UCP is holding on to a large majority of voters who cast a ballot for either the Wildrose Party (77%) or the Progressive Conservatives (84%) in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are losing 14% of their voters in the last election to the UCP.”

On the “Best Premier” question, Jason Kenney of the UCP holds a three-point lead over incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP (36% to 33%), with Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party and David Khan of the Liberal Party in single digits (9% and 2% respectively).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 13 to April 15, 2019 among 602 Alberta adults, including 542 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca