If Forced to Relocate, Almost Half of Albertans Would Pick BC

Just over one-in-four British Columbians would select Alberta as the province to resettle.

Vancouver, BC [August 27, 2019] – A significant proportion of Albertans would welcome relocating to British Columbia if circumstances called for a move, a new two-province Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 47% of Albertans say they would choose British Columbia if they had to move out of Alberta and live in any other region of Canada.

Ontario and Saskatchewan are tied as the second Canadian destination for Albertans with 11% each, followed by Nova Scotia at 4%.

“A majority of Edmontonians (53%) would choose British Columbia if they were compelled to move away from Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “But more than two-in-five Calgarians (45%) and residents of other parts of Alberta (42%) are willing to join them.”

In British Columbia, 26% of residents say they would move to Alberta if they had to leave British Columbia and resettle in a different Canadian province. 

Ontario is second in the minds of British Columbians with 16%, followed by Nova Scotia with 8%. One third of residents (33%) are undecided about which province they would move to.

While more residents of Metro Vancouver express a preference to resettle in Ontario (24%) than in Alberta (20%), all other regions of the province select Alberta first, including 33% of those in Northern BC and 32% of those in the Fraser Valley.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia and 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia and Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the British Columbia sample and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the Alberta sample, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Albertans Evenly Divided on Attachment to the United States

Three-in-ten residents think Alberta would be “better off as its own country”, up five points since December 2018.

Vancouver, BC [August 7, 2019] – Residents of Alberta are split when asked if they have “more in common with Americans than with those in other parts of Canada”, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 43% of Albertans agree with this statement, while 43% disagree with it and 14% are undecided.

Almost half of respondents aged 18-to-34 (47%) and aged 55 and over (also 47%) think Albertans have more in common with Americans than with other Canadians. The proportion drops to 37% among respondents aged 35-to-54.

While a majority of those who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the last provincial election believe Albertans have more in common with Americans than with other Canadians (56%), only 29% of those who voted for the provincial New Democratic Party (NDP) in last April’s ballot concur. 

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%, +5 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2018) believe Alberta would be better off as its own country, while 62% (-7) disagree.

“The proportion of Albertans who appear to be flirting with separation has risen,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “It is important to note that the level of strong disagreement with this statement dropped from 58% in December 2018 to 44% now.” 

More than a quarter of respondents (27%, -4 since December 2018) say they consider themselves “Albertans first, and Canadians second”—a proportion that rises to 34% among those aged 55 and over, 34% for those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton and 37% among those who voted for the UCP in the last provincial election.

Conversely, three-in-five respondents (59%, -1) say they are “Canadians first, and Albertans second.”

A majority of Albertans (56%) think their views “are different from the rest of the country”—including 64% of men, 63% of those aged 55 and over and 72% of UCP voters.

More than two-in-five Albertans (44%) believe Ralph Klein has been the best Premier of Alberta since November 1985, followed by Rachel Notley with 17% and Don Getty with 6%.

When asked who they believe has been the worst recent premier, 26% of Albertans select Notley, followed by Alison Redford (25%) and Klein (11%).

Photo Credit: Zeitlupe 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2019, among 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservatives Extend Their Lead in Alberta

Opposition leader Jason Kenney has overtaken incumbent Rachel Notley as the “Best Premier” for the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 15, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) has extended its advantage in the final stages of the provincial campaign in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta (+4 since a Research Co. poll completed in early April) would support the UCP candidate in their riding in tomorrow’s provincial ballot.

The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 39% (-1), followed by the Alberta Party with 9% (+3) and the Liberal Party with 2% (-1). Two per cent of decided voters would back other parties or candidates.

The level of undecided voters across Alberta has dropped from 22% in early April to 10% in this survey. In the rural areas of the province, only 9% of residents are currently undecided (compared to 27% earlier this month).

Among decided voters, the UCP holds sizeable advantages over the NDP in three distinct demographics: men (57% to 29%), Albertans aged 55 and over (59% to 33%) and those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (60% to 29%).

The opposition UCP is also the top choice for Albertans aged 35-to-54 (46% to 41%) and Calgarians (48% to 37%).

Conversely, the NDP is ahead of the UCP among women (48% to 40%), Albertans aged 18-to-34 (47% to 38%) and those who live in Edmonton (46% to 40%). 

“The UCP is holding on to a large majority of voters who cast a ballot for either the Wildrose Party (77%) or the Progressive Conservatives (84%) in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are losing 14% of their voters in the last election to the UCP.”

On the “Best Premier” question, Jason Kenney of the UCP holds a three-point lead over incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP (36% to 33%), with Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party and David Khan of the Liberal Party in single digits (9% and 2% respectively).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 13 to April 15, 2019 among 602 Alberta adults, including 542 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservative Party Ahead in Alberta Campaign

Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney are tied when residents ponder who would make the “Best Premier” of the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 2, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) holds the upper hand as the provincial electoral campaign unfolds in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their riding in this month’s election. The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 40%, followed by the Alberta Party with 6% and the Liberal Party with 3%. Six per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

In the survey, 22% of Albertans are undecided on which party or candidate to support, including 27% of those who reside outside of the Calgary and Edmonton census metropolitan areas.

“The UCP is connecting well with male voters and Albertans aged 55 and over,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP is more popular in Edmonton and with women and voters aged 18-to-34.”

Almost two-in-five decided voters (38%) concede they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the election.

When asked which party leader would make the “Best Premier” for the province, incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP and challenger Jason Kenney of the UCP are tied with 32% each, followed by Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party with 7% and David Khan of the Liberal Party with 5%.

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%) say their opinion of Notley has worsened since the start of the electoral campaign, while a larger proportion of residents (38%) now has a more negative view of Kenney.

Across the province, 45% of Albertans approve of the way Notley has performed her duties, while 46% disapprove. 

The approval rating is lower for Kenney (38%, with 47% disapproving), Mandel (30%, with 39% disapproving) and Khan (23%, with 46% disapproving).

When asked about specific issues, Albertans select Notley as the leader who is better suited to handle health care (38%), the environment (36%), child care (also 36%), education (also 36%), housing, poverty and homelessness (32%), and seniors care (31%).

Kenney is preferred for the economy (38%), job creation (also 38%), energy and pipelines (also 38%), managing the province’s finances (36%), and crime and public safety (32%). 

The two main leaders are practically even on managing government accountability and transportation projects.

The most important issue for Albertans, by far, is the economy and jobs (44%), followed by health care (14%), energy and pipelines (13%) and government accountability (9%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 29 to April 1, 2019, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Negligible Public Support for Separation in Alberta

Older residents are more likely to believe that the province would be better off as its own country.

Vancouver, BC [December 20, 2018] – In spite of increased commentary and media coverage, the proportion of Albertans who believe they would benefit from an eventual independence from Canada remains low, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Albertans, 25% of respondents agree with the statement “Alberta would be better off as its own country.” More than two thirds of Albertans (69%) disagree with this notion, including 58% who “strongly disagree.”

“The level of support for the idea of an independent Alberta is roughly the same as it was in surveys conducted in 2014 and 2016,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Four years ago, with a Progressive Conservative government in Edmonton and a Conservative government in Ottawa, the findings were similar to what is observed in 2018.”

The idea of an independent Alberta is more attractive for residents aged 55 and over (34%), as well as people who voted for the Wildrose Party in the 2015 provincial election (38%).

Across the province, 69% of Albertans say their views are different from the rest of Canada, and 84% say they are very proud of the province they live in.

Three-in-five respondents (60%) say they consider themselves “Canadians first, and Albertans second”, while just under a third (31%) claim to be “Albertans first, and Canadians second.”

Albertans aged 55 and over are more likely to place the province ahead of the country (40%) than those aged 35-to-54 (30%) and those aged 18-to-34 (20%)

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 13 to December 16, 2018, among 601 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error— which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: Gorgo

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca