More than three-in-five Canadians think the federal government should not allow Alberta’s separation to happen.
Vancouver, BC [July 30, 2026] – While Canadians are split when assessing the possible outcome of Alberta’s non-binding referendum on separation, half of Albertans expect it to usher in a binding vote in the future, a new Research Co. poll has found.
A non-binding provincial referendum has been set for October 19, 2026, in Alberta. One of the questions in this referendum asks: “Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
In the online survey of a representative national sample, Canadians are divided on whether voters in Alberta will choose to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation from Canada: 40% think a victory for the “leave” side on the non-binding referendum is “very likely” or “moderately likely”, while 41% consider this possibility “not too likely” or “not likely at all.”
In Alberta, half of respondents (50%) expect voters to compel a binding independence referendum at a later date, while 30% do not expect this scenario to materialize.
Three-in-ten Canadians (30%, -15 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2025) believe the United States will take steps to annex Alberta as an American state—a view shared by 24% of Albertans (-22).
One third of Canadians (33%) think it is “likely” that the United States will recognize Alberta’s sovereignty if a majority of voters choose to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada, while a smaller proportion (28%) predict a similar situation even if a majority of voters reject holding a binding provincial referendum.
Albertans are less likely to expect a recognition of sovereignty from the United States, regardless of whether the “leave” (26%) or “remain” (also 26%) sides emerge victorious in the non-binding referendum.
If voters in Alberta choose to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation, only 28% of Canadians—and 32% of Albertans—think the Government of Canada should ultimately allow Alberta’s separation to happen.
Majorities of Canadians aged 55 and over (68%), aged 18-to-34 (60%) and aged 35-to-54 (55%) think the federal government should ultimately not allow Alberta to secede.
“More than seven-in-ten Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in 2025 would welcome federal intervention to stop Alberta’s separation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “They are joined by majorities of voters who backed the Conservative Party (56%) or the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 56%) in the last federal election.
Public confidence across Canada on all political leaders on the issue of national unity is down significantly from June 2025. Just over three-in-five Canadians (61%, -6) trust the Prime Minister of Canada to make the best decisions on this file. The rating is lower for provincial premiers (51%, -8), provincial leaders of the Official Opposition (44%, -7) and the leader of the Official Opposition in Canada (43%, -8).
In Alberta, the rating is highest for the leader of the Official Opposition in Canada (50%, -6), followed by the Prime Minister (48%, -10), the provincial premier (46%, -9) and the provincial leader of the Official Opposition (40%, -13).
Only one-in-five Canadians (20%, =) think Canada would be better off as an American state, while 21% (=) believe their own province would be better off joining the United States and 28% (-1) say their province would be better off as its own country.
In a separate question, one-in-five Canadians (20%, +1) say they would vote in favour of Canada becoming an American state. Slightly fewer (18%, -1) would cast a ballot for their province to join the United States, while just under one-in-four (24%, -4) would vote for their province to become independent from Canada.
One third of Albertans (33%, -1) say they would vote in favour of their province becoming its own country, while 50% (-12) would vote against this idea and 17% (+12) are undecided.
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from July 20 to July 22, 2026, among 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca



















