Category: Elections

British Columbians See “Fake News” and Polarization as Threats

British Columbians See “Fake News” and Polarization as Threats

By Mario Canseco

About two thirds of residents also think the state of democracy in Canada is endangered by low voter turnout in elections.

Vancouver, BC [September 20, 2023] – Three-in-four residents of British Columbia are concerned about the effect of two issues in Canada, a new Research Co. poll conducted in partnership with the “Strengthening Democracy” initiative has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 76% of British Columbians think “fake news” featured on social media and online publications is “definitely” or “probably” a threat to the state of democracy in Canada, while 75% feel the same way about polarization, or political attitudes becoming more extreme.

More than two thirds of British Columbians also deem three other issues as threats to democracy in Canada: racism and discrimination (70%), low engagement from citizens on important issues (68%) and low voter turnout in democratic processes (67%).

Majorities of British Columbians are also preoccupied with the actions of government being perceived as limiting personal freedom (60%) and hyper partisanship, or political parties disagreeing intensely with each other (59%). Only 32% of the province’s residents believe immigration endangers the state of democracy in Canada.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) rate the state of democracy in Canada as “very good” or “good”, while 29% consider it “bad” or “very bad.”

“More than a third of British Columbians aged 35-to-54 (35%) are not pleased with the state of democracy in Canada right now,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (27%) and aged 55 and over (26%).”

The survey also gauged support for five ideas related to municipal politics in British Columbia.

Majorities of the province’s residents agree with three proposals: allowing permanent residents who have lived in a municipality for at least six months to vote in municipal elections (62%), compelling media outlets to provide a specific number of minutes (in the case of radio and television) or articles (in the case of print and online journalism) solely devoted to municipal issues (59%) and having elected councillors who represent a specific portion of the municipality (also known as wards), instead of voting for several at-large councillors (56%).

Two other ideas are more contentious, with 50% of British Columbians agreeing with abolishing political parties or “slates” and having every candidate for mayor, council or school board run as independents, and 47% agreeing with making voting mandatory for all citizens in municipal elections.

Majorities of British Columbians think their municipal governments (53%) and the provincial government (also 53%) are very responsive” or “moderately responsive” to their needs and the needs of other residents. The rating is significantly lower (40%) for the federal government.

Over the past year, only 31% of British Columbians have engaged directly with their municipality on a specific issue, such as reporting a problem, seeking a permit or obtaining a business license. More than half of these residents (54%) are satisfied with the way their issue was dealt with by their municipality, while 43% are dissatisfied.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 4 to September 6, 2023, among 813 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues

Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues

By Mario Canseco

Wab Kinew seen as the best leader to handle health care, while Heather Stefanson scores well on the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 18, 2023] – There is no clear frontrunner in Manitoba’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, 41% of decided voters in Manitoba would support the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), while 39% would back the governing Progressive Conservative Party.

The Liberal Party is third with 14%, followed by the Green Party with 3%. Across the province, 2% of decided voters would cast ballots for independents or candidates from other parties.

“On two specific age groups, Manitoba’s election is remarkably close,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats and the Progressive Conservatives are separated by two points or less among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42% to 40%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (43% to 42%).”

Fewer than one-in-four decided voters in Manitoba (23%) say they may change their mind and support a different party or candidate in this election—including 14% of those who currently plan to vote for the Progressive Conservatives and 18% of those who currently plan to support the New Democrats.

Just under half of likely voters in Manitoba (47%) approve of the way Official Opposition and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew is handling his duties. The rating is lower for Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Heather Stefanson (37%), Liberal Party leader Dougald Lamont (36%) and Green Party leader Janine Gibson (18%).

Kinew is the only leader with a positive momentum score since the start of the campaign (+2, with 24% of likely voters in Manitoba saying their opinion of him has improved). Lamont is at -4, Gibson at -8 and Stefanson at -23 (with 34% of likely voters saying their opinion of her has worsened).

Likely voters in Manitoba are profoundly divided when asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, with Stefanson practically tied with Kinew (30% to 29%), followed by Lamont (14%) and Gibson (2%).

Just over two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (41%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province—a proportion that rises to 57% among those aged 55 and over.

Housing, poverty and homelessness is second on the list of concerns in the province (17%), followed by the economy and jobs (14%), crime and public safety (also 14%) and the environment (4%).

Kinew is ahead of Stefanson when likely voters in Manitoba are asked who would be the best person to manage health care (40% to 26%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 25%). Stefanson leads Kinew on the economy and jobs (31% to 27%) and energy (30% to 26%).

The difference between the two leaders is negligible or inexistent on four other areas of concern: the environment (Kinew 25%, Stefanson 24%), government accountability (Kinew 28%, Stefanson 27%), crime and public safety (Kinew 33%, Stefanson 31%) and education (each contender at 31%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 15 to September 17, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Manitoba, including 539 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Conservative Party Holds Six-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

Conservative Party Holds Six-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

By Mario Canseco

Pierre Poilievre is tied with Justin Trudeau when Canadians are asked who would make the “Best Prime Minister.”

Vancouver, BC [September 7, 2023] – The popularity of the opposition Conservative Party has increased markedly in Canada over the past six months, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their constituency, up four points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February.

The governing Liberal Party is in second place across the country with 31% (-3), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 8% (=), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals in Ontario (40% to 35%) and British Columbia (42% to 31%). In Quebec, the Bloc is now in first place (34%), followed by the Liberals (30%) and the Conservatives (20%).

“About two-in-five decided voters aged 35-to-54 (39%) and aged 55 and over (40%) would support the Conservatives in a Canadian federal election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The race is closer among decided voters aged 18-to-34.”

This month, the approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau stands at 41% (-5). Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre posts the same number (41%, =), while NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is at 48% (-1).

Fewer Canadians hold positive views on the way Green Party leader Elizabeth May (32%, =), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (20%, -2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (also 20%, +4) are handling their duties.

When asked which federal party leader would make the “Best Prime Minister”, Trudeau and Poilievre are tied at 28%, followed by Singh with 17%. On this particular question, Trudeau has lost five points since February, while Poilievre has gained three.

More than two-in-five Canadians (44%, -3) are satisfied with what the Liberals and the NDP have accomplished since they established a supply and confidence agreement in March 2022.

The Liberal-NDP deal is popular in Ontario (51%), but garners lower support in Atlantic Canada (45%), Quebec (also 45%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (41%), Alberta (35%) and British Columbia (33%).

Practically equal proportions of Canadians say they would be comfortable with Trudeau (44%, =) or Poilievre (42%, +2) being in charge of Canada’s economy.

One-in-four Canadians (25%, +4) identify housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the country, followed by health care (24%, -2), the economy and jobs (20%, -6) and the environment (10%, +3).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 2 to September 4, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Alberta Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

How Alberta Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

By Mario Canseco

Ideas and policies won the election for the UCP, but things could have been different if the previous leader had decided to stick around.

Vancouver, BC [May 31, 2023] – Prior to the televised debate in Alberta’s provincial election, the New Democratic Party (NDP) had a slight two-point edge over the United Conservative Party (UCP) in a Research Co. survey. NDP leader Rachel Notley was connecting on her party’s traditional strengths—health care and education—and even was ahead of the UCP’s Danielle Smith on the preferred premier question. Smith was seen as a superior choice to deal with the energy file and was regarded as a better economic manager, but not by much.

After the debate and in the final days of campaigning, our final poll focused on likely voters, as well as those who had already cast their ballot prior to Election Day. The NDP saw its significant 26-point advantage in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (61% to 35%), which had been enough to put the party in first place provincewide, fall to 13 points (55% to 42%). Still significant, but not overwhelming.

In the Calgary Metropolitan Area, the lead for the UCP fell to three points (50% to 47%). In the remaining areas of the province, two thirds of decided voters (68%) told us they would support the UCP, and fewer than three-in-ten (28%) were casting a ballot for the NDP. Our final forecast in the three regions deviates by a couple of points or less from the final results published by Elections Alberta.

Our “Exit Poll” outlines why the UCP consolidated the vote in the final stages of the campaign. Ideas and policies were the most important factor for 44% of voters in Alberta. On this indicator, UCP supporters have a higher score than their NDP counterparts (48% to 39%). Practically half of Albertans who voted for the winning party had ideas and policies in mind. This is higher than the percentages observed for the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario (40%) and the CAQ in Quebec (28%) in last year’s provincial elections.

Just over one-in-four voters in Alberta (26%) told us that the main motivator for their vote was the party’s leader. NDP supporters were more likely to be casting a ballot for Notley (33%) than UCP supporters directly endorsing Smith (22%). All other possible factors are ranked significantly lower: disgust with other contending candidates (11%), the party’s candidate in the riding (8%), desire for stability (also 8%) and desire for change (also 8%).

In an election where only two contending parties have a chance of winning seats, asking about “strategic voting” makes little sense. Instead, we relied on three questions to figure out specific feelings. The negativity was not intense. About one-in-four voters said they cast a ballot for a candidate or party they dislike (23%) or voted to avoid policies they dislike (24%).

Perceptions on the future are another matter. Only 42% of voters in Alberta thought the province would be in a good place, regardless of who won the election. This leaves practically three-in-five voters (58%) who expected Alberta to be in a bad place if a specific party emerged victorious. The polarization is palpable when we look at this question by party support: 60% of UCP voters and 59% of NDP voters predicted hard times if “the other party” formed the government.

At this moment, following the concession and victory speeches, one could assume that the Premier and the Leader of the Opposition would face each other again in 2027. Albertans, who flirted with smaller parties for months, are ready for fresh faces. Almost four-in-five (79%) wish that the province had better people serving as leaders of the main political parties. Of course, each side seems to be blaming someone else: 82% of NDP voters and 81% of UCP voters appear to thoroughly dislike each other’s standard-bearers.

Finally, we take a look at the first leader of the UCP. When asked if they would cast a ballot for the party if Jason Kenney was still in command, 42% of voters in Alberta agreed—a proportion that rises to 50% among men and 49% among those aged 55 and over.

The stark contrast is outside of Calgary and Edmonton, where only 38% of voters were ready to back the UCP with Kenney as leader—a severe drop from the 68% who voted for the party under Smith this year. The former premier may have lost the rural areas after failing to strike the right balance on COVID-19. This precipitated the creation of alternatives, such as the minor parties that, ultimately, did not come close to running full slates of candidates.

Smith, who recovered in time to be ahead on the Best Premier question on our final poll of the campaign, deserves credit for keeping the UCP together. Only 64% of UCP voters in 2023 would have supported the party with Kenney as leader. Some may say that this year’s election yielded a lower seat count and a diminished popular vote to the UCP, but these comparisons are being made with the best version of Kenney that existed and was no longer available in 2020, 2021 and 2022. This election would have been very different if the UCP had not changed leaders.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 29 and May 30, 2023, among 500 adults in Alberta who voted in the 2023 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty. 

Photo Credit: Marcel Schoenhardt

 

Support for UCP Consolidates in Final Stages of Alberta Campaign

Support for UCP Consolidates in Final Stages of Alberta Campaign

By Mario Canseco

UCP leader Danielle Smith now has a small lead over the NDP’s Rachel Notley in the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [May 27, 2023] – The governing United Conservative Party (UCP) is ahead of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, half of decided voters in Alberta (50%) would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their constituency in this Monday’s election, while 46% would support the NDP.

“Since our previous survey conducted in mid-May, voter support for the UCP has increased by three points across Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, the NDP’s province-wide numbers are down by the same margin.”

Four per cent of decided voters are backing other parties, including the Green Party (1%, =) and the Solidarity Movement (also 1%, =).

The NDP was ahead of the UCP in Edmonton by 16 points earlier this month, but currently has a significantly smaller advantage (55% to 42%). The UCP holds the upper hand in Calgary (50% to 47%) and has expanded its advantage in the remaining regions of the province (68% to 28%).

Only 15% of decided voters say they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate on Monday’s election. NDP voters are more certain of their choice (95%) than UCP supporters (86%).

Over the past 10 days, the approval rating for Premier and UCP leader Danielle Smith increased from 39% to 47% across Alberta. Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley experienced a more modest rise, from 50% to 53%.

Fewer than one-in-four likely voters in Alberta approve of the way Green leader Jordan Wilkie (22%, +7) and Solidarity leader Artur Pawlowski (18%, +7) have handled their duties

On the momentum question, just over one-in-four likely voters in Alberta (26%) have an improved opinion of Smith since the start of the campaign, while 38% say it is worse now. Notley’s score on this indicator is even (27% improved, 27% worsened).

Smith heads to Election Day with a two-point edge over Notley on being regarded as the best premier for the province (43% to 41%). In our previous survey, Notley was ahead of Smith by five points.

As was the case in the middle of the campaign, Albertans point to two issues as the most important challenges facing the province right now: health care (27%, -2) and the economy and jobs (also 27%, =).

Housing, poverty and homelessness is third on the list of concerns with 12% (+4), followed by crime and public safety (8%, =) and government accountability (7%, =).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 26 and May 27, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Alberta, including 571 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Tight Race in Alberta as Support for Minor Parties Fizzles

Tight Race in Alberta as Support for Minor Parties Fizzles

By Mario Canseco

Rachel Notley is ahead of Danielle Smith when Albertans are asked who would make the best head of government.

Vancouver, BC [May 18, 2023] – Alberta’s two main political parties are virtually tied as voters ponder their choices in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta would support the New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding in this month’s election, while 47% would cast a ballot for the governing United Conservative Party (UCP).

Only 4% of decided voters in Alberta are currently choosing candidates from other parties, including the Green Party (1%) and the Solidarity Movement (also 1%).

Support for the UCP has increased by 17 points since a Research Co. survey conducted in March 2022, when Jason Kenney was still Alberta’s premier. The NDP has gained four points in that span, as voter support for third parties declined from 25% to just 4%.

At this stage of the campaign, the NDP has a significant advantage among decided voters in Edmonton (61% to 35%). The UCP is ahead in Calgary (52% to 44%) and in the remaining regions of the province (63% to 31%).

“Just under one-in-five decided voters in Alberta (19%) say they may change their mind and support a different party’s candidate in the election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This includes 27% of those aged 18-to-34 and 24% of those who do not reside in the Calgary or Edmonton metropolitan areas.”

Two topics continue to dominate when Albertans are asked about the most important issue facing the province: health care (29%, -1) and the economy and jobs (27%, -2). All other perceived challenges are in single digits, including crime and public safety (8%, +6), housing, poverty and homelessness (also 8%, +1) and government accountability (7%, -6).

Half of the province’s residents (50%, +1) approve of the way Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley is handling her duties. The rating is lower for Premier and UCP leader Danielle Smith (39%), Green leader Jordan Wilkie (15%, -5) and Solidarity leader Artur Pawlowski (11%).

All four party leaders post a negative momentum score: -2 for Notley, -7 for Wilkie, -15 for Pawlowski and -25 for Smith.

On the preferred premier question, Notley holds a five-point advantage over Smith (43% to 38%), with significant support from women (48%) and Albertans aged 18-to-34 (52%).

When asked which of the two party leaders is better suited to manage specific issues, Notley holds the upper hand on health care (50% to 32%), education (49% to 31%), the environment (47% to 29%), housing, poverty and homelessness (45% to 29%), accountability (45% to 34%), seniors care (44% to 29%) and child care (43% to 28%).

Smith is ahead on energy and pipelines (50% to 28%), the economy and jobs (44% to 35%), managing the province’s finances (40% to 37%), crime and public safety (39% to 34%) and transportation projects (37% to 33%).

The two leaders are tied, each with 38%, when Albertans ponder who would be the best at creating jobs.

Only 16% of Albertans (-5) support the introduction of a provincial sales tax (PST), while more than three-in-four (77%, +5) are opposed to it.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 16 and May 17, 2023, among 600 adults in Alberta, including 529 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

BC NDP Extends Advantage in British Columbia’s Political Scene

BC NDP Extends Advantage in British Columbia’s Political Scene

By Mario Canseco

Crime and public safety rise markedly as issues of concern for residents, going from 5% in February to 14% in May.

Vancouver, BC [May 9, 2023] – Public backing for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) has increased over the past three months in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 46% of decided voters would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency if an election took place today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February.

BC United is in second place with 33% (-3 since the previous survey as BC Liberals), followed by the BC Green Party with 16% (=) and the Conservative Party of BC with 4% (+2).

“Female decided voters in British Columbia pick the BC New Democrats over BC United by a two-to-one margin (50% to 24%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two parties are practically tied among male decided voters (42% for the BC NDP and 41% for BC United).”

Respondents to this survey were asked if they would consider voting for each of the four main parties if they ran a candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election. The BC Conservatives featured candidates in 10 of 87 constituencies in the 2017 provincial election, and in 19 of 87 ridings in the 2020 ballot.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (61%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding. The rating is lower for BC United (46%), the BC Greens (37%) and the BC Conservatives (25%).

Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby maintains an approval rating of 59% across the province. The numbers are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (40%, -2), BC United leader Kevin Falcon (38%, -6) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (18%).

Just under a third of British Columbians (32%, -2) select housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (28%, -1), crime and public safety (14%, +9), the economy and jobs (12%, -1) and the environment (4%, -2).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is the prevalent concern for residents of the Fraser Valley (41%), Southern BC (35%) and Metro Vancouver (33%). Health care is the main worry for residents of Vancouver Island (32%), while the economy and jobs dominates in Northern BC (28%).

Public safety is a greater concern for residents of Metro Vancouver (16%), Vancouver Island (15%) and Southern BC (12%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from May 1 to May 3, 2023, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

More Than 1/3 of Canadians See Trudeau & Poilievre as Arrogant

More Than 1/3 of Canadians See Trudeau & Poilievre as Arrogant

By Mario Canseco

Two-in-five Canadians (40%) describe Jagmeet Singh as compassionate.

Vancouver, BC [April 28, 2023] – Canadians rely mostly on negative attributes when they think of the leaders of the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample provided Canadians with a list of 18 different words—nine positive and nine negative—and asked them to choose up to six to describe the leaders of Canada’s three main federal political parties.

The words used the most by Canadians to describe Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau are arrogant (37%), dishonest (36%), out of touch (35%), intelligent (also 35%), inefficient (31%) and foolish (29%).

Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre garners a slightly higher score on arrogant (39%). The other five words relied on the most to describe him are intelligent (34%), out of touch (29%), dishonest (28%), strong (26%) and uncaring (23%).

Canadians used mostly positive words when asked about New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh: compassionate (40%), intelligent (37%), honest (35%), down to earth (also 35%), open (30%) and in touch (27%).

“Sizeable proportions of Canadians aged 55 and over describe Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre as arrogant (46% and 49% respectively),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 12% feel the same way about Jagmeet Singh.”

The words used the least to describe Trudeau are honest (19%), strong (also 19%), efficient (17%), boring (15%), in touch (14%) and  exciting (9%).

Fewer than one-in-five Canadians relied on words like secretive (19%), inefficient (18%), boring (17%), compassionate (16%), weak (15%) and exciting (14%) to describe Poilievre.

Only 10% of Canadians labelled Singh as uncaring. The proportions are slightly higher for dishonest (16%), arrogant (14%), boring (also 14%), secretive (12%) and exciting (also 12%).

Most Liberal Party voters in the 2021 election (57%) described Trudeau as intelligent. A majority of Conservative Party voters from the previous federal ballot (53%) rely on the same word to label Poilievre. The word used the most by NDP voters to describe Singh is honest (58%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from April 22 to April 24, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals and Conservatives are Neck and Neck in Canada

Liberals and Conservatives are Neck and Neck in Canada

By Mario Canseco

Neither of the two leaders of the main federal parties are gaining ground on economic management.

Vancouver, BC [March 3, 2023] – Canada’s main federal political parties are locked in a virtual tie across the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 34% of decided voters (+3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2022) would support the governing Liberal Party if a federal election were held tomorrow, while 33% (-2) would back the opposition Conservative Party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 18% (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 8% (=), the Green Party with 3% (-1) and the People’s Party with 1% (-1).

The Liberals are ahead in Atlantic Canada (45%, +7), Quebec (39%, +1) and Ontario (39%, +7), while the Conservatives are leading in Alberta (58%, +7), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%, +1) and British Columbia (38%, +1).

More than one-in-five Canadians identify one of three issues as the most important facing the country right now: the economy and jobs (26%, -3), health care (26%, +5) and housing, homelessness and poverty (21%, =).

Fewer Canadians mention the environment (7%, =), accountability and leadership (4%, -1), immigration (4%, =) and crime and public safety (3%, -1) as the most important issues facing the country.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the highest approval rating among the six federal party leaders this month (49%, +3), followed by Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau (46%, +2) and Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre (41%, +4).

The approval rating is lower for Green Party leader Elizabeth May (32%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (22%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (16%, -2).

A third of Canadians (33%) believe Trudeau would make the best prime minister among the six main party leaders. Poilievre is second with 25%, followed by Singh with 15%, Blanchet and May with 3% each, and Bernier with 1%.

“More than a third of Atlantic Canadians (40%), Quebecers (38%) and Ontarians (also 38%) believe Trudeau is the best choice to head the federal government,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Poilievre holds the upper hand on this question in Alberta (46%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (35%) and British Columbia (27%).”

There is little change in the perceptions of the two main party leaders on financial management, with 44% of Canadians (+1) saying they are comfortable with Trudeau being charge of Canada’s economy and 40% (+1) saying they would be comfortable with Poilievre at the helm.

Almost half of Canadians (47%, +3) say they are satisfied with what the Liberals and the NDP have accomplished since their March 2022 supply and confidence agreement, while 44% (=) are dissatisfied.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 25 to February 27, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most British Columbians Foresee an Early Election in 2023

Most British Columbians Foresee an Early Election in 2023

By Mario Canseco

More than three-in-five of the province’s residents who voted for the BC Liberals in 2020 like the name BC United.

Vancouver, BC [February 15, 2023] – A majority of British Columbians think voters will be asked to select the members of the Legislative Assembly before the end of the year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 53% of British Columbians think it is “very likely” or “moderately likely” that the province will have an election in 2023.

“Expectations of an early provincial election in British Columbia are highest among residents who voted for the BC Liberals in 2020 (61%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer BC New Democratic Party (NDP) and BC Green Party voters (52% and 48% respectively) see themselves casting ballots in 2023.”

The BC Liberals will change their name to BC United in 2023. More than a third of British Columbians (36%) say they like the new name for the political party that formed the government from 2001 to 2017—a proportion that rises to 62% among those who voted for the BC Liberals in the last provincial election, held in October 2020.

If an early election indeed takes place in 2023, more than half of British Columbians (53%) predict a win for the BC NDP, while 28% believe the BC Liberals / BC United will emerge victorious.

The survey also gauged the opinion of British Columbians on the people who have served as full time or interim leaders of the three main provincial political parties in this century.

Almost two thirds of British Columbians (64%) have a favourable opinion of John Horgan, who led the BC NDP from 2014 to 2022 and served as premier from 2017 to 2022. The rating is lower for Adrian Dix (46%), Carole James (40%), Ujjal Dosanjh (also 40%) and Joy MacPhail (31%).

Horgan’s favourability rating is 87% among BC NDP voters in the 2020 provincial election.

When British Columbians ponder the previous leaders of the BC Liberals, about two-in-five hold favourable views on the two who headed the provincial government: Gordon Campbell (41%) and Christy Clark (39%). The rating is significantly lower for Shirley Bond (27%), Andrew Wilkinson (24%) and Rich Coleman (22%).

The favourability rating for Campbell and Clark is almost identical among BC Liberal voters in 2020 (65% and 66% respectively).

Across British Columbia, Andrew Weaver (36%) has the highest favourability rating among former leaders of the BC Green Party, followed by Adriane Carr (32%), Adam Olsen (23%) and Jane Sterk (18%).

Weaver’s favourability rating reaches 57% among BC Green Party voters in the 2020 provincial election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on February 4 to February 6, 2023, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Governing BC NDP Stays Ahead of BC Liberals in British Columbia

Governing BC NDP Stays Ahead of BC Liberals in British Columbia

By Mario Canseco

Two-in-five residents think David Eby is a better leader than Kevin Falcon to tackle housing and health care.

Vancouver, BC [February 10, 2023] – The BC New Democratic Party (NDP) maintains a high level of support under new leader David Eby, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their constituency if an election were held today, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2022, when John Horgan was premier.

The BC Liberals are in second place with 36% (+1), followed by the BC Green Party with 16% (+1) and the BC Conservative Party with 2% (-2).

“Support for the BC NDP remains strong in Vancouver Island (59%), while the BC Liberals dominate in Southern BC (53%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats have smaller leads over the BC Liberals in Northern BC (47% to 43%), Metro Vancouver (44% to 38%) and the Fraser Valley (39% to 26%).”

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (59%) approve of the way Eby has performed as premier and leader of the BC NDP. The rating improved this month for both BC Liberals leader Kevin Falcon (44%, +8) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (42%, +7).

More than a third of British Columbians (34%, -4) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province. Health care is a close second (29%, +1), followed by the economy and jobs (13%, +2) the environment (6%, =) and crime and public safety (5%, -3).

Respondents to this survey were asked to choose which of the two main party leaders is best suited to manage eight different issues. Eby has small leads over Falcon on three broad themes: crime and public safety (31% to 27%), energy (also 31% to 27%) and the economy and jobs (34% to 28%).

Eby’s advantage over Falcon is more decisive on five other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 21%), health care (40% to 24%), the environment (37% to 18%), education (37% to 22%) and accountability (35% to 22%)

A separate question gauged whether the leaders of the BC NDP and the BC Liberals possess specific characteristics that can be found in politicians.

Majorities of British Columbians think Eby is a good speaker and communicator (56%) and has a vision for the future of British Columbia (54%).

At least two-in-five residents of the province think the current premier understands their problems (47%), is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (43%), is a strong and decisive leader (42%), inspires confidence (41%) and generally agrees with people on issues they care about (40%).

Fewer British Columbians believe Eby is honest and trustworthy (39%), shares their values (36%), is a good economic manager (35%) and is patronizing (27%).

More than a third of British Columbians think Falcon is good speaker and communicator (46%), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (42%) and is a strong and decisive leader (37%).

Fewer residents say the leader of the BC Liberals inspires confidence (33%), understands the problems of residents (32%), is a good economic manager (also 32%), is patronizing (31%), is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (30%), generally agrees with people on issues they care about (28%), shares their values (27%) and is honest and trustworthy (26%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on February 4 to February 6, 2023, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Criticism Towards Trudeau Increases in Western Canada

Criticism Towards Trudeau Increases in Western Canada

By Mario Canseco

The proportion of Albertans who think the province would be better off as its own country fell to 26%.

Vancouver, BC [February 1, 2023] – Just over half of Canadians think their province would benefit from a change in the federal government, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 52% of Canadians think their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2022.

Majorities of Canadians who reside in Alberta (66%, +2), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (65%, +5), British Columbia (57%, +4)  and Ontario (52%, +4) believe their provinces would be better off with someone other than Justin Trudeau in charge. The proportions are lower in Atlantic Canada (44%, -8) and Quebec (42%, -3).

“Canadians aged 35-to-54 (56%) are more likely to believe that a change in the federal government would be beneficial to their province,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The rating is slightly lower among their counterparts aged 55 and over (51%) and aged 18-to-34 (50%)”

Just over half of Canadians (51%, unchanged) believe their province would be better off with a different premier in charge.

Compared to June 2022, animosity towards Ontario’s Doug Ford has risen from 43% to 57%, while it has dropped for Quebec’s François Legault from 48% to 45%. These two premiers earned majorities in provincial elections held in June and October respectively.

In British Columbia, there is little change in the results posted by John Horgan in June (41%) and David Eby this month (40%). In Alberta, 55% of respondents think the province would be better off with a premier other than Danielle Smith. In June, 65% of Albertans felt this way about Jason Kenney.

The proportion of Albertans who think their province would be better off as its own country fell to 26% this month, down seven points since June and well below the all-time high of 40% registered in December 2019.

Separatist sentiment also dropped in Quebec, from 32% in June to 29% this month.

Fewer than one-in-five Canadians (17%, =) believe their province would be better off joining the United States and becoming an American state—a proportion that rises to 21% in Alberta.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from January 20 to January 22, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Majority of Canadians Expect to Eventually Vote for Senators

Majority of Canadians Expect to Eventually Vote for Senators

By Mario Canseco

One third would prefer to reform the Senate to allow for elections, while fewer favour abolishment or keeping the status quo.

Vancouver, BC [December 23, 2022] – While Canadians do not reach consensus about the best way to proceed with the upper house, more than half think voters will one day be able to choose the members of the Red Chamber, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 56% of Canadians (+2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February 2020) expect to one day be able to directly elect their senators, while 28% (-1) disagree and 17% (=) are not sure.

“Expectations of an elected Senate of Canada are highest in Alberta (64%), British Columbia (60%) and Ontario (59%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Residents of Atlantic Canada (52%), Quebec (49%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (49%) are more skeptical.”

One-in-four Canadians (24%, -3) think Canada does not need a Senate and want all legislation to be reviewed and authorized by the House of Commons—a proportion that reaches 35% among those aged 55 and over.

Just under one-in-ten Canadians (9%, =) believe Canada needs a Senate and the current guidelines that call for appointed senators should not be modified.

Fewer than half of Canadians (45%, =) think Canada needs a Senate, but Canadians should be allowed to take part in the process to choose senators.

When asked to consider specific options for the Red Chamber, only 6% of Canadians support allowing the Prime Minister to appoint senators, while 17% favour having a selection committee that would appoint non-partisan senators.

One third of Canadians (33%) would reform the Senate to allow Canadians to directly elect the members of the upper house, while 14% would abolish the Red Chamber altogether.

Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last federal election are significantly more likely to support Senate reform (50%) than those who cast ballots for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (38%) and the Liberal Party (28%) in 2021.

Since 2015, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has only named senators that were recommended by an arm’s-length advisory body and not directly appointed by him.

Fewer than three-in-ten Canadians (28%, -9) think the changes implemented by Trudeau have made the Senate of Canada better than it was before he took office, while 31% (-1) see no change and 20% (+4) believe the situation is now worse.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on December 10 to December 12, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Florida and Ohio Are Red States in U.S. Midterm Election

Florida and Ohio Are Red States in U.S. Midterm Election

By Mario Canseco

Democratic incumbents in Illinois and New York head to Election Day with significant leads. 

Vancouver, BC [November 7, 2022] – The U.S. Senate contests in the states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are remarkably close on the eve of the midterm election in the United States, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in ten American states.

The surveys of Americans who have already participated in the democratic process or plan to do so tomorrow also show Republican candidates dominating the Senate and Governor’s races in Florida and Ohio, and their Democratic counterparts with healthy leads in California, Illinois and New York

Arizona

In 2020, Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Martha McSally in a U.S. Senate special election with 51,2% of the vote. In this month’s contest, Kelly holds a four-point lead over GOP challenger Blake Masters (51% to 47%), with Libertarian Marc Victor at 2%.

In the Grand Canyon State’s gubernatorial election, Republican Kari Lake has a two-point edge over Democrat Katie Hobbs (51% to 49%).

California

Voters in California will take part in two U.S. Senate elections: a special contest to fill a seat until January 2023 and a regular contest to choose a Senator for a six-year term. In each election, Democrat Alex Padilla holds a sizeable advantage over Republican Mark Meuser (63% to 37%).

Incumbent Gavin Newsom of the Democratic Party has a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Brian Dahle in the gubernatorial election (60% to 40%).

Practically seven-in-ten decided voters in the Golden State (69%) say they will vote “Yes” on Proposition 1 which seeks to amend the California Constitution to expressly include an individual’s fundamental right to reproductive freedom.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of the Republican Party has a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Val Demmings (54% to 44%).

Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis is also heavily favoured to win a new term in office in his contest against former governor Charlie Crist (56% to 42%).

Georgia

The U.S. Senate election in the Peach State may have to be decided in a run-off, with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver garnering the support of 1% of decided voters. Challenger Herschel Walker of the Republican Party and incumbent U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock of the Democratic Party are tied with 49% each.

In the gubernatorial election, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp has a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams (53% to 46%).

Illinois

Democrat Tammy Duckworth appears headed to a new six-year term in the U.S. Senate, with a sizeable advantage over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi (58% to 40%).

In the Prairie State’s gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat J. B. Pritzker is 20 points ahead of Republican rival Darren Bailey (59% to 39%).

Nevada

Democratic U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, first elected in 2016, is trailing GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by a single point (48% to 49%).

In the Silver State’s gubernatorial election, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak is also slightly behind Republican contender Joe Lombardo (47% to 49%).

New York

Voters in the Empire State give incumbent U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer of the Democratic Party a substantial lead over GOP challenger Joe Pinion (59% to 39%).

In the gubernatorial election, former Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul of the Democratic Party has a double-digit lead over Republican candidate Lee Zeldin (55% to 45%).

Ohio

In the Buckeye State’s election to the U.S. Senate, J.D. Vance holds an eight-point advantage over Democrat Tim Ryan (54% to 46%).

Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine has a larger lead over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley (61% to 39%).

Pennsylvania

In the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Pat Toomey, Democratic candidate John Fetterman is barely ahead of Republican contender Mehmet Oz (49% to 48%).

The contest for the governor’s office in the Keystone State is not as tight. Democrat Josh Shapiro has a 12-point lead over Republican Doug Mastriano (55% to 43%).

Wisconsin

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson, first elected in 2010, has a six-point lead over Democratic rival Mandela Barnes in the Badger State (53% to 47%).

In the race for governor, incumbent Tony Evers of the Democratic Party and challenger Tim Michels of the Republican Party are tied with the support of 50% of decided voters each.

Methodology:
Results are based on online surveys conducted from November 4 to November 6, 2022, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in ten American states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca
Conservatives Have Four-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

Conservatives Have Four-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

By Mario Canseco

Canadians are evenly split when assessing the accomplishments of the Liberals and the NDP following their March 2022 agreement.

Vancouver, BC [October 31, 2022] – The opposition Conservative Party is ahead in Canada’s federal political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 35% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The governing Liberal Party is in second place with 31%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19%, the Bloc Québécois with 8%, the Green Party with 4% and the People’s Party with 2%.

The Conservatives hold sizeable leads in their traditional strongholds of Alberta (51%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%) and are also first in Ontario (41%) and British Columbia (37%). The Liberals are leading in Quebec (38%, with the Bloc at 32%) and Atlantic Canada (38%).

“Among Canadian decided voters aged 55 and over, the Conservatives have a double-digit lead over the Liberals (41% to 30%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The race is much closer among younger voters.”

More than two-in-five Canadians (44%) approve of the performance of Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau while just over half (51%) disapprove.

The approval rating is higher this month for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (46%, -5 since the last Research Co. survey conducted before the 2021 federal election).

More than a third of Canadians (37%) approve of the way Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has handled his duties, while 44% disagree and 19% are undecided.

The numbers are lower for Green interim leader Amita Kuttner (22%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (20%, and 38% in Quebec) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (18%).

Practically three-in-ten Canadians (29%, +7 since September 2021) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing Canada, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (21%, +6), health care (also 21%, -6), the environment (7%, -3), accountability and leadership (5%, -1), immigration (4%, +1) and crime and public safety (also 4%, +1).

The economy and jobs is regarded as the most pressing federal concern for residents of Alberta (38%), Quebec (33%), Ontario (30%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 30%).

Health care is the prevalent issue for Atlantic Canadians (35%), while housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter in British Columbia (33%).

When asked which one of the six main party leaders would make the best prime minister of Canada, Trudeau holds a six-point advantage over Poilievre (30% to 24%), followed by Singh (17%), Blanchet (4%), Bernier (2%) and Kuttner (1%).

Residents of two provinces are almost evenly divided on whether Trudeau or Poilievre would be the best head of government for Canada right now. In Ontario, Poilievre is a point ahead of Trudeau (30% to 29%). In British Columbia, the current prime minister edges the opposition leader by the same margin (27% to 26%).

More than two-in-five Canadians (43%) say they are comfortable with Trudeau being charge of Canada’s economy, a proportion that rises to 45% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 52% in Quebec.

Just under two-in-five Canadians (39%) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being charge of Canada’s economy, including 48% of Albertans and 43% of Ontarians.

There is no clear consensus on what the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP has meant to Canada so far. Across the country, 44% are satisfied with the accomplishments of this deal, while the same proportion (44%) are dissatisfied.

Liberal voters in the 2021 federal election are significantly more likely to hold positive views on the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement (80%) than those who voted for the New Democrats (51%) or the Conservatives (13%).

The country is also divided on whether a federal election should be called in the next six months now that the Conservatives have a full time leader (Agree 44%, Disagree 41%).

Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in the last federal election are more convinced about the need to hold a fresh ballot now (73%) than their counterparts who supported the NDP (44%) or the Liberals (30%) in 2021.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 24 to October 26, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca
How Quebec Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

How Quebec Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

By Mario Canseco

Supporters of the governing CAQ say leader François Legault was their primary motivator for casting a ballot.

Vancouver, BC [October 17, 2022] – By the mid-way point of the campaign, it became clear that the provincial election in Quebec would become a race for second place, both in terms of voting percentages and seats.

The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) ultimately garnered 41% of all cast ballots, in tune with the final survey published by Research Co. Premier François Legault, who held the upper hand on approval and on the “Best Premier” question, now leads a caucus of 90 members in the National Assembly—a 14-seat improvement from his first election victory in 2018.

When it comes to the main motivators of support, our “Exit Poll” shows that the Quebec electorate was equally invested in the party’s leader (35%) and the party’s ideas and policies (34%). Significantly fewer voters were primarily concerned about a desire for stability (15%), a desire for change (9%), the party’s candidate in the riding (8%) or disgust with other contending candidates (6%).

For the governing CAQ, building the campaign around the personality of the current head of government paid off handsomely. The party’s leader was the main motivator for 43% of CAQ voters. A look at what we found in Ontario earlier this year shows the command that Legault has on his party’s base. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who also earned a majority mandate, was seen as the primary motivator for 31% of Progressive Conservative voters, 12 points below what we see in Quebec.

The level of rapport with leaders is significantly lower among the other four parties. More than a third of Parti Québécois (PQ) voters (36%) were motivated by leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The proportions on this indicator drop to 27% for Dominique Anglade among Liberal Party of Quebec voters, 26% for Éric Duhaime among Conservative Party of Quebec voters, and just 20% for co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois among Québec solidaire voters.

In Quebec, few voters looked at the candidate in their riding as a key factor in their decision, with numbers ranging from a high of 13% for Liberal and PQ voters to a low of 6% among those who cast ballots for CAQ candidates. Desire for change, an item that is always crucial for opposition parties, stands at 9% as a main motivator across the province, rising to 20% among Québec solidaire voters.

Québec solidaire is also unique when we measure how many Quebecers chose who to support based primarily on a party’s ideas and policies, with a total score of 48%. All other parties have lower scores (Liberals 39%, Conservatives 38%, PQ 36% and CAQ 28%).

On the “strategic vote” question, Quebecers are evenly split. Almost half (49%) admit to having voted for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they disliked, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. Supporters of the Liberals (61%) and the Conservatives (53%) were more likely to behave this way.

Age is a key aspect behind the allure of “strategic voting”. In Quebec, 62% of voters aged 18-to-34 say they voted strategically, compared to 47% among those aged 35-to-54 and 37% among those aged 55 and over. These results are very similar to what we found when we asked this question in Ontario. In Eastern Canada, the younger the voter, the more likely he or she is to look at outside information before casting a ballot. Those aged 55 and over are significantly more likely to simply go with their first choice.

Finally, we asked voters in Quebec a question about their nationality. Just over half (52%) say they consider themselves “Quebecers first, Canadians second.” This is a significantly higher level of provincial identification than what we found in August when we asked representative samples of Albertans (28%) and British Columbians (22%).

When these results are analyzed by party support, majorities of those who cast ballots for the Liberals (82%) and the Conservatives (59%) identify as Canadian. In contrast, supporters of Québec solidaire (52%), the CAQ (60%) and the PQ (86%) are more likely to say they are Quebecers first.

Find our data tables here. 

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 3 and October 4, 2022, among 500 Quebec adults who voted in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Deadlock As Voters in Vancouver Prepare for Municipal Election

Deadlock As Voters in Vancouver Prepare for Municipal Election

By Mario Canseco

Housing (43%, up eight points) remains the most important issue for likely voters in the city, followed by crime (14%, up five points).

Vancouver, BC [October 14, 2022] – The outcome of the mayoral election in Vancouver is uncertain, with the two main contenders tied and about one-in-seven likely voters still undecided about who they will support tomorrow, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Vancouver finds both incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Together and challenger Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC) garnering the support of 33% of decided voters. The numbers represent a two-point drop for Stewart and a three-point gain for Sim since a Research Co. survey conducted in early September.

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver remains in third place with 16% (-1), followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 8% (-5) and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) also with 8% (+4). Two per cent of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for one of the other ten mayoral candidates.

Among male decided voters, Stewart has a three-point edge over Sim (37% to 34%). The race is closer among female voters, with Sim one point ahead of Stewart (31% to 30%), and Hardwick at 21%.

Stewart is the top choice for voters on both the East side of Vancouver (37%) and Downtown (35%), while Sim holds the upper hand on the West side (35%).

Among likely voters who own their primary residence, Sim has a five-point lead over Stewart (38% to 33%), while Stewart is ahead of Sim among likely voters who rent their primary residence (33% to 25%).

“On the eve of the election, 14% of likely voters in Vancouver are still undecided about which mayoral candidate to back,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion of undecided voters is higher among women (17%), likely voters aged 35-to-54 (17%), residents of the West Side (16%) and renters (18%).”

More than two-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (43%, +8) identify housing is the most important issue facing the city—a proportion that rises to 47% among women and to 49% among likely voters aged 55 and over.

Crime is second on the list of pressing concerns for likely voters in Vancouver at 14% (+5), followed by property taxes (10%, +1), poverty (8%, -1) and drug overdoses (8%, -6).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 13 and October 14, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver, including 344 decided voters in the 2022 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 5.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca
CAQ Headed for Second Majority Mandate in Quebec

CAQ Headed for Second Majority Mandate in Quebec

By Mario Canseco

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2022] – The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) heads to tomorrow’s provincial election as the overwhelming favourite, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Quebec, 41% of decided voters will cast a ballot for the CAQ candidate in their constituency, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-September.

The Liberal Party of Quebec and the Conservative Party of Quebec are tied for second place with 16% each (-1 and -2 respectively), followed by Québec solidaire with 14% (=) and the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 12% (+2).

More than three-in-five decided voters aged 55 and over (64%) say they will support the CAQ, along with 39% of those aged 35-to-54. Québec solidaire is the top choice for decided voters aged 18-to-34 (30%).

A majority of likely voters in Quebec (55%, -2) approve of François Legault’s performance as Premier and CAQ leader—a proportion that rises to 68% among those aged 55 and over.

Since mid-September, the approval rating improved for Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (42%, +5), PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (40%, +4) and Official Opposition and Liberal leader Dominique Anglade (39%, +6). The numbers are lower for Conservative leader Éric Duhaime (29%, -2).

On the “Best Premier” question, Legault maintains a sizeable lead (40%, -3), followed by Nadeau-Dubois (12%, +2), Duhaime (also 12%, -1), Anglade (10%, -1), and  Plamondon (8%, +2).

“More than seven-in-ten CAQ voters from the 2018 election (73%) think Legault would make the best premier out of the five main party leaders in Quebec ,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In stark contrast, only 30% of Liberal voters from the previous provincial ballot feel the same way about Anglade.”

The most important issue for likely voters in Quebec is health care (40%, -5), followed by the economy and jobs (17%, +1) and housing, homelessness and poverty (12%, unchanged).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2022, among 708 likely voters in Quebec, including 637 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of likely voters and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490
Governing CAQ Heavily Favoured by Voters in Quebec

Governing CAQ Heavily Favoured by Voters in Quebec

By Mario Canseco

More than half of Quebecers approve of the way François Legault is handling his duties as premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 23, 2022] – The ruling Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is the top choice of voters in the upcoming provincial ballot, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Quebecers, 40% of decided voters say they will support the CAQ candidate in their constituency in next month’s provincial election.

The Conservative Party of Quebec is second with 18%, followed by the Liberal Party of Quebec with 17%, Québec solidaire with 14% and the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 10%.

Support is particularly impressive for the CAQ among decided voters aged 55 and over (60%). The governing party is also ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (35%) while Québec solidaire is first among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (31%).

“The CAQ is holding on to more than three-in-four of its voters (77%) in the 2018 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rates are decidedly lower for the Liberals (52%), Québec solidaire (50%) and the PQ (47%).”

More than half of Quebecers (57%) approve of the way Premier and CAQ leader François Legault has performed in his job. The rating is lower for Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (37%), PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (36%), Official Opposition and Liberal leader Dominique Anglade (33%) and Conservative leader Éric Duhaime (31%).

Legault is also ahead on the “Best Premier” question (43%), with Duhaime (13%), Anglade (11%), Nadeau-Dubois (10%) and  Plamondon (6%) far behind.

Among the five main party leaders, only Plamondon manages a positive momentum score at this stage of the campaign (+1). Nadeau-Dubois (-4), Legault (-11), Duhaime (-15) and Anglade (-15) are in negative territory.

More than two-in-five Quebecers (45%) identify health care as the most important issue facing the province—a proportion that rises to 58% among those aged 55 and over. Only two other issues reach double-digits at the province-wide level: the economy and jobs (16%) and housing, homelessness and poverty (12%).

Legault is seen as the best party leader to handle six issues: the economy and jobs (39%), health care (36%), accountability (also 36%), crime and public safety (33%), education (30%) and energy and pipelines (28%).

The numbers are tighter on two other concerns: housing, poverty and homelessness (Legault 27%, Nadeau-Dubois 23%) and the environment (Legault 23%, Nadeau-Dubois 22%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 19 to September 21, 2022, among 700 Quebec adults, including 616 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490
Stewart and Sim Are Frontrunners in Vancouver Mayoral Election

Stewart and Sim Are Frontrunners in Vancouver Mayoral Election

By Mario Canseco

More than a third of likely voters believe housing is the most important issue facing the city right now.

Vancouver, BC [September 8, 2022] – Four mayoral candidates are in double-digits as voters in Vancouver ponder their choices in next month’s election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 35% of decided voters in the City of Vancouver would support incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Vancouver, while 30% would cast their ballot for Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC).

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver is in third place with 17 per cent, followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 13% and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) with 4%.

More than a third of likely voters in Vancouver (35%) say housing is the most important issue facing the city, followed by drug overdoses (14%), crime (9%), poverty (also 9%) and property taxes (also 9%).

“Concerns about housing are particularly high among women (42%) and likely voters aged 35-to-54 (39%) in the City of Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Drug overdoses are a more prevalent topic among likely voters who reside Downtown (19%) than among their counterparts who live on the West Side (13%) or the East Side (11%).”

Two thirds of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (67%) have followed the municipal electoral campaign “very closely” or “moderately closely.”

Over the past two months, a majority of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (52%) have seen, read or heard media stories where mayoral or council candidates discussed their position on issues. Almost three-in-ten (29%) have visited the website of a mayoral or council candidate.

While 16% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver have interacted with a mayoral or council candidate on social media (such as following on Twitter or liking on Facebook), the proportion rises to 25% among those aged 18-to-34.

Just over two thirds of likely voters in Vancouver (68%) support the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education”, which raises awareness of and welcomes students of all sexual orientations, gender identities and family structures.

In national survey conducted by Research Co. in July 2019, 62% of Canadians supported the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education” in their province.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 3 to September 5, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca