BC NDP Keeps Upper Hand in British Columbia’s Political Scene

The approval ratings for John Horgan and Andrew Wilkinson increased since last year, along with concerns about health care.

Vancouver, BC [May 28, 2020] – The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is ahead of all other contenders in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 41% of decided voters in British Columbia would back the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 33% would cast a ballot for the BC Liberals.

Support for the BC New Democrats increased by two points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in May 2019, while backing for the BC Liberals increased by three points.

The BC Green Party is currently in third place with 16% (-5), followed by the BC Conservative Party with 9% (unchanged).

The New Democrats are the most popular choice among female decided voters in the province (45%), as well as among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (46%) and 35-to-54 (41%).

The BC NDP and the BC Liberals are practically tied in the preference of male decided voters (38% and 36% respectively). A similar scenario is observed with decided voters aged 55 and over (38% for the BC Liberals, 37% for the BC NDP).

“Right now, 12% of BC Liberal voters in 2017 are looking at the BC Conservatives as an option they could back in a provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC Green Party could see 14% of their 2017 voters walk away and support the BC NDP.”

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan stands at 73% this month, up 22 points since May 2019.

Almost half of British Columbians (48%, +14) approve of BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson. The numbers are similar for interim BC Green Party leader Adam Olsen (49%), and lower for BC Conservative Party leader Trevor Bolin (35%, +15).

Almost three-in-ten British Columbians (28%) believe health care is the most important issue facing the province, up 17 points in a year.

The economy and jobs and COVID-19 are tied for second place with 21% each, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty with 17%, the environment with 4%, education with 3%, crime and public safety with 2%, accountability also at 2%, and energy and pipelines with 1%.

Health care is the most pressing concern for voters aged 55 and over (38%), while COVID-19 is the top issue for those aged 35-to-54 (36%) and housing, homelessness and poverty takes precedence among those aged 18-to-34 (29%).

Photo Credit: Ryan Bushby

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 23 to May 25, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 
For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Canadians Hold Mixed Feelings About Trudeau’s Performance

The Liberal Party holds a nine-point advantage over the Conservative Party across the country.

Vancouver, BC [May 8, 2020] – Canadians are divided in their assessment of the first four and a half years of Justin Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 48% of Canadians think Trudeau has performed “about the same” as they expected. Similar proportions of Canadians believe Trudeau has been “better” than they envisioned (24%) or “worse” than they anticipated (25%).

“More than a third of Canadians aged 55 and over (36%) believe Trudeau has been worse than they expected,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Significantly fewer Canadians aged 35-to-54 (21%) and 18-to-34 (18%) feel the same way.”

Two-in-five Canadians (41%) believe Trudeau has accomplished “little” as head of government. Comparable quantities of Canadians believe he has achieved “much” (24%) or that it is “too early” to judge his accomplishments (also 24%) since he took office in November 2015.

While 40% of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in last year’s federal election believe Trudeau as accomplished “much” since becoming prime minister, the proportion falls to 27% among those who cast ballots for New Democratic Party (NDP) candidates and to just 6% among those who supported the Conservative Party.

Respondents to this survey were also asked to evaluate if 10 different issues are better, the same, or worse now than six years ago, when Stephen Harper served as Canada’s prime minister.

At least one-in-five Canadians believe that four issues are better now: Canada’s reputation in the world (30%), Canada’s role in global affairs (25%), the environment (21%) and ethics and accountability (20%).

Fewer Canadians believe there has been an improvement on public safety (19%), health care (also 19%), national unity (18%), the Canadian economy (16%), taxation (13%) and national defence (11%).

If a federal election were held today, the governing Liberals would garner the backing of 39% of decided voters. The Conservatives are in second place with 30%, followed by the New Democrats with 17%, the Green Party with 7%, the Bloc Québécois with 5%, and the People’s Party with 1%.

The Liberals are particularly popular in Ontario (44%), Quebec (40%) and British Columbia (39%). The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (45%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (38%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 1 to May 3, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 
For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Jeangagnon

Young Voters Give Biden National Lead in U.S. Presidential Race

The presumptive Democratic nominee is ahead of the incumbent president by double digits in the West and Midwest.

Vancouver, BC [April 8, 2020] – Joe Biden holds the upper hand over Donald Trump in the United States presidential race, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 50% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 44% would support the Republican incumbent and 6% would back another candidate.  

In 2016, Trump garnered 46% of the popular vote, two points behind Hillary Clinton (48%). Trump secured 306 votes in the Electoral College to Clinton’s 232.  

“In April 2012, Barack Obama was seeking re-election and held a six-point lead over his presumptive challenger, Mitt Romney, on the popular vote” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “At the same point in 2020, it is the incumbent president who is six points behind.”  

One-in-ten American voters (10%) are currently undecided—a proportion that grows to 14% among those aged 18-to-34.   At this stage in the race, there is no sizeable gender gap among decided voters: Biden holds similar leads among men (49% to 44%) and women (51% to 44%).  

A majority of American decided voters aged 18-to-34 (58%) support Biden, while only 36% would cast a ballot for Trump. Biden has a seven-point lead over Trump among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (50% to 43%), but trails Trump by three points among decided voters aged 55 and over (50% for Trump, 47% for Biden).  

Biden is ahead of Trump in the West (53% to 42%) and Midwest (53% to 41%). The race is closer in the Northeast (50% for Biden, 46% for Trump) and in the South (48% for Trump, 45% for Biden).  

Trump is supported by 95% of decided voters who describe themselves as Republicans. Biden’s rate is lower among Democratic decided voters (83%). A majority of Independent decided voters (52%) prefer Biden, with Trump at 39% and 9% backing another candidate.  

More than three-in-five African American (74%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (64%) support Biden. Trump holds a nine-point lead among White decided voters (52% to 43%).  

Trump is holding on to 94% of decided voters who supported him in the 2016 election, while Biden garners the backing of 84% of those who supported Hillary Clinton.  

Decided voters who get their news from CNN and MSNBC / CNBC support Biden (74% each), while seven-in-ten decided voters who watch Fox News (70%) would cast a ballot for Trump.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on April 3, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Americans Fear Foreign Interference in 2020 Election

The approval rating for Donald Trump fell slightly since February (43%), but remains high among Republican voters.

Vancouver, BC [April 6, 2020] – The prospect of foreign meddling in this year’s United States presidential ballot is causing distress for a sizeable proportion of Americans, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 50% of Americans say they have “not much confidence” or “no confidence at all” that foreign countries will not interfere in the election.  

“The possibility of foreign entities intruding in the democratic process is a bigger concern among Democrats (64%) and Independents (56%) in the United States,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, only 23% of Republicans share the same level of wariness.”  

Two-in-five Americans (40%) express little confidence that the systems that are currently in place to cast their ballot (such as electronic voting machines) will not be tampered with.  

More than a third of Americans are not particularly confident that their vote will be accurately counted (35%) and that the systems that are currently in place to cast their ballot (such as electronic voting machines) will work properly (34%).  

While a third of White Americans (33%) express “not much confidence” or “no confidence at all” in their vote being accurately tallied (33%), the proportion rises to 42% among Hispanic and Latino voters and 44% among African Americans.  

Americans who usually watch television news on MSNBC and CNBC are more likely to express little or no confidence in electronic voting machines working properly (45%) than those who watch Fox News (30%) or CNN (29%).  

With seven months to go before the next presidential election, 43% of Americans approve of Donald Trump’s performance, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted after his State of the Union address in February.  

Trump’s approval rating is higher among men (49%) and Americans aged 55 and over (46%), and lower among women (38%) and Americans aged 18-to-34 (35%).  

The incumbent president holds healthier numbers among Republican voters (85%) and Americans who cast a ballot for him in 2016 (86%). Trump’s disapproval rating is highest among Democrats (80%) and those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election (87%).  

White Americans are almost evenly split in their assessment of Trump (47% approve, 49% disapprove). Majorities of African Americans (71%) and Hispanics (64%) are dissatisfied with the president’s performance.  

Two thirds of Americans who usually watch Fox News (67%) approve of the way Trump has handled his job. Fewer than three-in-ten viewers of CNN (28%) and MSNBC/CNBC (25%) concur.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on April 3, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our datasets here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Many Canadians Continue to Wish for an Elected Senate

More than a third of Canadians think the changes implemented by the prime minister have made the upper house better.  

Vancouver, BC [March 23, 2020] – More than two-in-five Canadians would welcome the possibility of playing a direct role in the selection of the upper house’s members, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 45% of Canadians think the country needs a Senate, but citizens should be allowed to take part in the process to choose senators.  

The proportion of Canadians who want to be allowed to participate in selecting the members of the upper house is highest in British Columbia (52%) and Alberta (51%).  

Just over a quarter of Canadians (27%) believe Canada does not need a Senate and would prefer for all legislation to be reviewed and authorized by the House of Commons.  

Only 9% of respondents say Canada needs a Senate and want the current guidelines that call for appointed senators to remain unchanged.  

When given a choice, two-in-five Canadians (40%) say they would prefer to reform the Senate to allow for the direct election of members of the upper house.  

“Support for a reform process that ultimately allows Canadians to cast ballots for Senate candidates grows with age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 33% of Canadians aged 18-to-34 are fond of this idea, the proportion jumps to 39% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 47% among those aged 55 and over.”  

Conversely, three-in-ten Canadians (31%) would rather have a selection committee that would appoint non-partisan Senators, while only 10% would let the prime minister name the new members of the upper house.  

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has only named senators that were recommended by an arm’s-length advisory body and not directly appointed by him.  

More than a third of Canadians (37%) think the changes implemented by Trudeau have made the Senate of Canada “better” than before, while 30% see no change and 16% believe the state of affairs is “worse” now.  

More than half of Canadians (54%) expect Canadians to one day “definitely” or “probably” be able to elect their senators, while 29% do not think this scenario will materialize.

Photo Credit: Xiaphias 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from February 22 to February 25, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca