Most Americans Reject Delaying the 2020 Presidential Election

Among decided voters, Democratic candidate Joe Biden keeps a sizeable advantage over incumbent Donald Trump. 

Vancouver, BC [August 7, 2020] – Most likely voters in the United States reject the notion of delaying the presidential election that is scheduled for November, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, two thirds of respondents (68%) think the election should not be postponed to a later date because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Majorities of likely voters who identify as Democrats (75%), Independents (67%) and Republicans (59%) believe this year’s presidential ballot should go on as planned.

More than half of decided voters (53%) would support prospective Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the November election, while 42% would vote for Republican incumbent Donald Trump.

Support is decidedly lower for Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen (2%), Green nominee Howie Hawkins (1%) and other candidates (also 1%).

These results are largely unchanged at the national level since the July Research Co. survey that also placed Biden ahead by double-digits among decided voters.

The bulk of support for Biden comes from women (59%), decided voters aged 18-to-34 (54%) and African Americans (71%). The race is closer among men, where Biden is slightly ahead of Trump (47% to 45%). Among White voters, Trump is practically tied with Biden (48% to 47%).

More than nine-in-ten decided voters (92%) say they are certain that they will vote for their chosen candidate in the election. This includes 94% of those who intend to support Trump and 91% of those who plan to vote for Biden.

There are some sizeable differences when supporters of the two main contenders are asked about the factors for their choice.

About a third of decided voters who support Trump (34%) say their main motivator is the candidate’s ideas and policies, while fewer point to disgust with other candidates (23%) and Trump’s political party (22%).

Biden voters are primarily motivated by disgust with other candidates (30%), and to a lesser extent by the candidate’s ideas and policies (23%) and his political party (21%).

When asked which one of the two main candidates is better suited to handle specific issues, Biden holds the upper hand on the environment (50%), health care (49%), race relations (48%), education (47%), COVID-19 (46%), government accountability (45%), foreign policy (43%), energy and oil (41%) and managing the deficit (40%)

The two contenders are tied or virtually even on five issues: crime (Trump 39%, Biden 39%), the economy (Trump 43%, Biden 41%), job creation (Trump 42%, Biden 41%), immigration (Biden 42%, Trump 40%) and national defense (Trump 41%, Biden 41%).

“In our June survey, Trump was ahead of Biden on job creation, the economy and national defense,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now the numbers on these issues have tightened considerably, while Biden has also gained ground on energy and oil.”

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on August 3 and August 4, 2020, among 1,018 likely voters in the United States and 946 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our datasets here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Biden Has Double-Digit Lead in American Presidential Race

Support for the prospective Democratic nominee has grown among women and voters aged 18-to-34.

Vancouver, BC [July 8, 2020] – Public backing for prospective Democratic Party presidential nominee Joe Biden increased this month in the United States, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 53% of American decided voters (+2 since a similar survey conducted in June) say they would vote for Biden in this year’s presidential election, while 43% (-3) would cast a ballot for Republican incumbent Donald Trump.

Biden holds a large advantage among female decided voters (57% to 41%), while the race is closer among male decided voters (49% for Biden, 47% for Trump).

The results of this survey are very different for the incumbent president from what the race looked like in July 2012. At the time, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney were tied at 47% in the popular vote, with Obama leading by 12-points among women and Romney holding the sae advantage among men.

This month, Trump is virtually tied with Biden among decided voters aged 55 and over (50% to 49%), while the prospective Democratic nominee is ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (61% to 33%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (53% to 41%).

Just over half of White Americans (51%) say they would vote for Trump in this year’s election. The Republican incumbent has a significantly lower level of support among Hispanic and Latino Americans (28%) and African Americans (9%).

Trump’s approval rating stands at 40% this month, and at 46% among White Americans.

Respondents to this survey were also provided with a list of 18 words to describe Biden and asked to select up to six of them.

About three-in-ten Americans chose the words “intelligent” (32%), “compassionate” (also 32%), “down to earth” (30%), “out of touch” (28%), “weak” (also 28%) and “open” (27%).

In a similar survey conducted in July 2012, Democratic incumbent Barack Obama was regarded as “intelligent” by 50% of Americans, and as “open” by 21%.

The top words used by Independent voters to describe Biden are “weak” (34%) and “out of touch” (33%). In July 2012, only 22% of Independents described both Obama as “weak”, but 32% regarded him as “out of touch.” 

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on July 1 and July 2, 2020, among 1,200 American adults, including 1,049 likely voters and 965 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points for the entire sample, +/- 3.0 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.1 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Approval Rating for Trump Falls to 40% in the United States

More than half of Americans (57%) use the word “arrogant” to describe the incumbent president.

Vancouver, BC [July 6, 2020] – Fewer Americans are satisfied with the way Donald Trump is handling his duties, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 40% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, down six points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June.

The disapproval rating for Trump stands at 56% this month, climbing to 59% among women and 63% among residents of the Northeast.

Only one-in-five African Americans (21%) approve of Trump’s performance. The numbers for the incumbent president are better among Hispanic and Latino respondents (32%) and White respondents (46%).

Trump’s rating dropped to 13% among Democrats (-6). While almost four-in-five Republicans (79%, -4) approve of the president’s performance, only 31% of Independents (-9) concur.

Respondents to this survey were also provided with a list of 18 words to describe Trump and asked to select up to six of them.

Almost three-in-five Americans (57%) chose the word “arrogant” to describe Trump. More than a third of respondents also picked “dishonest” (40%), “uncaring” (39%), “foolish” (also 39%), “strong” (36%) and “out of touch” (34%).

In a similar survey conducted in July 2012, Republican Party presidential candidate Mitt Romney was also regarded as “out of touch” by 34% of Americans, but had his highest score across the country on being “intelligent” (46%).

The top words chosen by Republican Party supporters to describe Trump are “strong” (63%), “intelligent” (55%), “efficient” (43%) and “honest” (40%).

Practically two thirds of Independent voters (65%) believe Trump is “arrogant”—along with 70% of Democrats and 38% of Republicans.

In July 2012, only 32% of Independents described both Romney and incumbent U.S. President Barack Obama as “arrogant.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on July 1 and July 2, 2020, among 1,200 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Americans Prefer Biden Over Trump on Seven Policy Issues

A third of Americans consider Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar as “good choices” for Vice President.

Vancouver, BC [June 3, 2020] – Prospective Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden remains ahead of incumbent Donald Trump of the Republican Party with five months to go before the United States presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 51% of decided voters in the United States (+1 since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in April) would support Biden, while 46% (+2) would vote for Trump. Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen garners the backing of 2% of decided voters.

In 2016, Trump received 46% of the popular vote, two points behind Hillary Clinton (48%). Trump secured 306 votes in the Electoral College to Clinton’s 232.

Trump currently holds an 11-point lead over Biden among White decided voters (54% to 43%). Sizeable proportions of African American (83%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (67%) are planning to vote for Biden.

“Compared to what we reported on in April, there is significant movement among Independent voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “At this stage of the campaign, 15% of these voters are undecided, and among those who choose a candidate, Biden is nearly tied with Trump (47% to 45%).”

Most viewers of CNN and MSNBC / CNBC would vote for Biden (74% and 78% respectively), while more than seven-in-ten Fox News watchers (72%) would cast a ballot for Trump.

Biden is regarded by a plurality of Americans as the presidential candidate best suited to deal with seven policy issues:

  • The environment (46%).
  • Health care (45%).
  • Race relations (44%).
  • Education (also 44%).
  • Foreign policy (42%).
  • Government accountability (40%).
  • COVID-19 (also 40%).

Trump is ahead on three issues:

  • Job creation (43%).
  • The economy (also 43%).
  • National defense (41%).

The two contenders are virtually tied on four other issues:

  • Crime (Biden 38%, Trump 37%).
  • Managing the deficit (both at 36%).
  • Energy and oil (Biden 38%, Trump 37%).
  • Immigration (Biden 40%, Trump 39%).

When Americans are asked about nine characteristics that people may find in politicians, Biden has a higher score than Trump on eight items:

  • Being able to unite America and not divide it (47% to 30%).
  • Being in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (47% to 35%).
  • Generally agreeing with respondents on issues they care about (45% to 40%).
  • Being able to bring the kind of change America needs (45% to 42%).
  • Being able to deal with labour unions effectively in the event of a dispute (45% to 41%).
  • Sharing the values of respondents (44% to 34%).
  • Being a good speaker and communicator (42% to 33%).
  • Being honest and trustworthy (42% to 32%).

Trump holds the upper hand on only one trait:

  • Being a good economic manager (47%, with Biden at 39%).

Biden has said he intends to choose a woman as his running mate. Across the United States, 40% of respondents think Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren would be a “good choice” for Vice President, followed by California Senator Kamala Harris at 39%, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar at 35%, former Georgia Congresswoman Stacey Abrams at 29% and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand at 26%.

More than three-in-five Democrats thin Warren (64%) and Harris (62%) would be good choices for the party’s ticket in 2020, while almost half feel the same way about Klobuchar (48%) and Abrams (46%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on June 1 and June 2, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our datasets here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Perceptions of Trudeau Improve Across Canadian Provinces

The proportion of Albertans who hold separatist feelings has fallen markedly since December 2019.

Vancouver, BC [June 2, 2020] – The views of Canadians on the way the federal government can benefit their province have shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of Canadians believe that their province would be “better off” with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa, while 47% disagree.

A similar Research Co. survey conducted in December 2019 found that 50% of Canadians believed that their province would be “better off” with a different person heading the federal government.

The proportion of Canadians who wish for a person other than Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister is currently highest in Alberta (54%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%), and drops in British Columbia (37%), Quebec (also 37%), Ontario (35%) and Atlantic Canada (31%).

Almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) believe their province would be better off with a different premier in charge, down 14 points nationally since December 2019.

“In three of the four most populous provinces of Canada, the premiers have connected with residents in a meaningful way and saw their standing improve over the past six months,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Alberta, there was little movement for the premier and a slight recovery for the prime minister.”

The proportion of Ontarians who think the province would be better off with a premier other than Doug Ford fell from 60% in December 2019 to 38% in May 2020. There is also an improvement for François Legault in Quebec (from 44% to 29%) and for John Horgan in British Columbia (from 42% to 36%).

In Alberta, 56% of residents would rather have a premier other than Jason Kenney, down one point since December 2019. In this province, negative views of Justin Trudeau dropped by 11 points over the same span.

Across the country, 24% of Canadians (-1) think their province would be better off as its own country. Since December 2019, separatist feelings have fallen by four points in Quebec (36%) and by 12 points in Alberta (28%).

Only 17% of Canadians (+1) believe their province would be better off joining the United States, including 20% of Quebecers, 19% of Albertans and 18% of British Columbians.

Photo Credit: WinterE229 

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on May 26 and May 27, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

BC NDP Keeps Upper Hand in British Columbia’s Political Scene

The approval ratings for John Horgan and Andrew Wilkinson increased since last year, along with concerns about health care.

Vancouver, BC [May 28, 2020] – The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is ahead of all other contenders in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 41% of decided voters in British Columbia would back the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 33% would cast a ballot for the BC Liberals.

Support for the BC New Democrats increased by two points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in May 2019, while backing for the BC Liberals increased by three points.

The BC Green Party is currently in third place with 16% (-5), followed by the BC Conservative Party with 9% (unchanged).

The New Democrats are the most popular choice among female decided voters in the province (45%), as well as among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (46%) and 35-to-54 (41%).

The BC NDP and the BC Liberals are practically tied in the preference of male decided voters (38% and 36% respectively). A similar scenario is observed with decided voters aged 55 and over (38% for the BC Liberals, 37% for the BC NDP).

“Right now, 12% of BC Liberal voters in 2017 are looking at the BC Conservatives as an option they could back in a provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC Green Party could see 14% of their 2017 voters walk away and support the BC NDP.”

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan stands at 73% this month, up 22 points since May 2019.

Almost half of British Columbians (48%, +14) approve of BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson. The numbers are similar for interim BC Green Party leader Adam Olsen (49%), and lower for BC Conservative Party leader Trevor Bolin (35%, +15).

Almost three-in-ten British Columbians (28%) believe health care is the most important issue facing the province, up 17 points in a year.

The economy and jobs and COVID-19 are tied for second place with 21% each, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty with 17%, the environment with 4%, education with 3%, crime and public safety with 2%, accountability also at 2%, and energy and pipelines with 1%.

Health care is the most pressing concern for voters aged 55 and over (38%), while COVID-19 is the top issue for those aged 35-to-54 (36%) and housing, homelessness and poverty takes precedence among those aged 18-to-34 (29%).

Photo Credit: Ryan Bushby

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 23 to May 25, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 
For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Canadians Hold Mixed Feelings About Trudeau’s Performance

The Liberal Party holds a nine-point advantage over the Conservative Party across the country.

Vancouver, BC [May 8, 2020] – Canadians are divided in their assessment of the first four and a half years of Justin Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 48% of Canadians think Trudeau has performed “about the same” as they expected. Similar proportions of Canadians believe Trudeau has been “better” than they envisioned (24%) or “worse” than they anticipated (25%).

“More than a third of Canadians aged 55 and over (36%) believe Trudeau has been worse than they expected,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Significantly fewer Canadians aged 35-to-54 (21%) and 18-to-34 (18%) feel the same way.”

Two-in-five Canadians (41%) believe Trudeau has accomplished “little” as head of government. Comparable quantities of Canadians believe he has achieved “much” (24%) or that it is “too early” to judge his accomplishments (also 24%) since he took office in November 2015.

While 40% of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in last year’s federal election believe Trudeau as accomplished “much” since becoming prime minister, the proportion falls to 27% among those who cast ballots for New Democratic Party (NDP) candidates and to just 6% among those who supported the Conservative Party.

Respondents to this survey were also asked to evaluate if 10 different issues are better, the same, or worse now than six years ago, when Stephen Harper served as Canada’s prime minister.

At least one-in-five Canadians believe that four issues are better now: Canada’s reputation in the world (30%), Canada’s role in global affairs (25%), the environment (21%) and ethics and accountability (20%).

Fewer Canadians believe there has been an improvement on public safety (19%), health care (also 19%), national unity (18%), the Canadian economy (16%), taxation (13%) and national defence (11%).

If a federal election were held today, the governing Liberals would garner the backing of 39% of decided voters. The Conservatives are in second place with 30%, followed by the New Democrats with 17%, the Green Party with 7%, the Bloc Québécois with 5%, and the People’s Party with 1%.

The Liberals are particularly popular in Ontario (44%), Quebec (40%) and British Columbia (39%). The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (45%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (38%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 1 to May 3, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 
For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Jeangagnon

Young Voters Give Biden National Lead in U.S. Presidential Race

The presumptive Democratic nominee is ahead of the incumbent president by double digits in the West and Midwest.

Vancouver, BC [April 8, 2020] – Joe Biden holds the upper hand over Donald Trump in the United States presidential race, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 50% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 44% would support the Republican incumbent and 6% would back another candidate.  

In 2016, Trump garnered 46% of the popular vote, two points behind Hillary Clinton (48%). Trump secured 306 votes in the Electoral College to Clinton’s 232.  

“In April 2012, Barack Obama was seeking re-election and held a six-point lead over his presumptive challenger, Mitt Romney, on the popular vote” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “At the same point in 2020, it is the incumbent president who is six points behind.”  

One-in-ten American voters (10%) are currently undecided—a proportion that grows to 14% among those aged 18-to-34.   At this stage in the race, there is no sizeable gender gap among decided voters: Biden holds similar leads among men (49% to 44%) and women (51% to 44%).  

A majority of American decided voters aged 18-to-34 (58%) support Biden, while only 36% would cast a ballot for Trump. Biden has a seven-point lead over Trump among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (50% to 43%), but trails Trump by three points among decided voters aged 55 and over (50% for Trump, 47% for Biden).  

Biden is ahead of Trump in the West (53% to 42%) and Midwest (53% to 41%). The race is closer in the Northeast (50% for Biden, 46% for Trump) and in the South (48% for Trump, 45% for Biden).  

Trump is supported by 95% of decided voters who describe themselves as Republicans. Biden’s rate is lower among Democratic decided voters (83%). A majority of Independent decided voters (52%) prefer Biden, with Trump at 39% and 9% backing another candidate.  

More than three-in-five African American (74%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (64%) support Biden. Trump holds a nine-point lead among White decided voters (52% to 43%).  

Trump is holding on to 94% of decided voters who supported him in the 2016 election, while Biden garners the backing of 84% of those who supported Hillary Clinton.  

Decided voters who get their news from CNN and MSNBC / CNBC support Biden (74% each), while seven-in-ten decided voters who watch Fox News (70%) would cast a ballot for Trump.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on April 3, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Americans Fear Foreign Interference in 2020 Election

The approval rating for Donald Trump fell slightly since February (43%), but remains high among Republican voters.

Vancouver, BC [April 6, 2020] – The prospect of foreign meddling in this year’s United States presidential ballot is causing distress for a sizeable proportion of Americans, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 50% of Americans say they have “not much confidence” or “no confidence at all” that foreign countries will not interfere in the election.  

“The possibility of foreign entities intruding in the democratic process is a bigger concern among Democrats (64%) and Independents (56%) in the United States,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, only 23% of Republicans share the same level of wariness.”  

Two-in-five Americans (40%) express little confidence that the systems that are currently in place to cast their ballot (such as electronic voting machines) will not be tampered with.  

More than a third of Americans are not particularly confident that their vote will be accurately counted (35%) and that the systems that are currently in place to cast their ballot (such as electronic voting machines) will work properly (34%).  

While a third of White Americans (33%) express “not much confidence” or “no confidence at all” in their vote being accurately tallied (33%), the proportion rises to 42% among Hispanic and Latino voters and 44% among African Americans.  

Americans who usually watch television news on MSNBC and CNBC are more likely to express little or no confidence in electronic voting machines working properly (45%) than those who watch Fox News (30%) or CNN (29%).  

With seven months to go before the next presidential election, 43% of Americans approve of Donald Trump’s performance, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted after his State of the Union address in February.  

Trump’s approval rating is higher among men (49%) and Americans aged 55 and over (46%), and lower among women (38%) and Americans aged 18-to-34 (35%).  

The incumbent president holds healthier numbers among Republican voters (85%) and Americans who cast a ballot for him in 2016 (86%). Trump’s disapproval rating is highest among Democrats (80%) and those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election (87%).  

White Americans are almost evenly split in their assessment of Trump (47% approve, 49% disapprove). Majorities of African Americans (71%) and Hispanics (64%) are dissatisfied with the president’s performance.  

Two thirds of Americans who usually watch Fox News (67%) approve of the way Trump has handled his job. Fewer than three-in-ten viewers of CNN (28%) and MSNBC/CNBC (25%) concur.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on April 3, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our datasets here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Many Canadians Continue to Wish for an Elected Senate

More than a third of Canadians think the changes implemented by the prime minister have made the upper house better.  

Vancouver, BC [March 23, 2020] – More than two-in-five Canadians would welcome the possibility of playing a direct role in the selection of the upper house’s members, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 45% of Canadians think the country needs a Senate, but citizens should be allowed to take part in the process to choose senators.  

The proportion of Canadians who want to be allowed to participate in selecting the members of the upper house is highest in British Columbia (52%) and Alberta (51%).  

Just over a quarter of Canadians (27%) believe Canada does not need a Senate and would prefer for all legislation to be reviewed and authorized by the House of Commons.  

Only 9% of respondents say Canada needs a Senate and want the current guidelines that call for appointed senators to remain unchanged.  

When given a choice, two-in-five Canadians (40%) say they would prefer to reform the Senate to allow for the direct election of members of the upper house.  

“Support for a reform process that ultimately allows Canadians to cast ballots for Senate candidates grows with age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 33% of Canadians aged 18-to-34 are fond of this idea, the proportion jumps to 39% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 47% among those aged 55 and over.”  

Conversely, three-in-ten Canadians (31%) would rather have a selection committee that would appoint non-partisan Senators, while only 10% would let the prime minister name the new members of the upper house.  

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has only named senators that were recommended by an arm’s-length advisory body and not directly appointed by him.  

More than a third of Canadians (37%) think the changes implemented by Trudeau have made the Senate of Canada “better” than before, while 30% see no change and 16% believe the state of affairs is “worse” now.  

More than half of Canadians (54%) expect Canadians to one day “definitely” or “probably” be able to elect their senators, while 29% do not think this scenario will materialize.

Photo Credit: Xiaphias 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from February 22 to February 25, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most British Columbians Would Steer Clear of Wexit Party

More than half of voters in the province would consider casting a ballot for the NDP or the Liberals in the next federal election.

Vancouver, BC [March 13, 2020] – A minuscule proportion of voters in British Columbia are enthralled by the possibility of the Wexit Party running a candidate in their federal constituency, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, only 15% of British Columbians say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the secessionist political organization in the next federal election.

“Almost two thirds of British Columbians (64%) say they would not contemplate the Wexit Party as an option in the next election to the House of Commons,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This includes 58% of voters aged 18-to-34, 62% of those aged 35-to-54 and 75% of those aged 55 and over .”

More than half of British Columbians say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (58%) and the Liberal Party (56%) in the next federal election.

The voter pool in British Columbia is slightly lower for the Conservative Party (46%) and the Green Party (45%).

More than three-in-five women in the province (63%) would consider supporting the NDP in the next federal election. A similar proportion of female voters would contemplate the Liberals (59%), while fewer would ponder the Greens (45%), the Conservatives (39%) or Wexit (9%).

Among male voters, the NDP also currently has the largest voter pool (55%), with Liberals and Conservatives tied at 51% each. Consideration is lower for the Greens (45%) and Wexit (21%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 4 to March 7, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Americans Split on Pelosi’s Ripping of State of the Union Address

Just over a third of Americans think Donald Trump has accomplished much since he became President.

Vancouver, BC [February 6, 2020] – Americans are divided when assessing’s the decision of House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to rip her copy of the State of the Union address in half after President Donald Trump finished his delivery, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of Americans think the actions of the Speaker were “unjustified”, while 42% consider them “justified.”

“More than three-in-four Democrats (77%) stand by the Speaker, while a comparable proportion of Republicans (76%) suggest that she was out of line,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Independents are more likely to believe that Pelosi’s actions were unjustified (48%) than justified (36%).”

About two thirds of Americans were exposed to the latest State of the Union address, with 33% observing it in its entirety, 23% seeing parts of it and 11% only watching reports in the media.

Respondents who were familiar with the State of the Union were asked to select four feelings to describe the speech. The top emotions selected were pride (26%), enthusiasm (23%), trust (21%) and disgust (21%).

Sizeable proportions of Republicans said the speech elicited pride (53%), enthusiasm (47%) and trust (46%). Conversely, the most mentioned emotions by Democrats were disgust (33%) anger (27%) and shame (26%).

More than a third of Americans (35%, including 71% of Republicans) believe that Donald Trump has accomplished much since he became President. More than two-in-five (44%, including 67% of Democrats) think Trump has accomplished little since taking office.

The approval rating for President Trump stands at 45%, up seven points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in January 2019. Half of Americans (51%, -7) currently disapprove of his performance.

Two-in-five Americans (41%) believe Trump deserves re-election as president, while 55% disagree—including 84% of Democrats and 59% of Independents.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on February 5, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: Ingfbruno

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Canadian Voters Are Open to Proportional Representation

Two-in-five would welcome implementing the mixed member system for the next election to the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2019] – A significant proportion of Canadian voters would be open to conducting the next federal ballot under a different electoral system, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who cast a ballot in this year’s federal election, 51% of respondents would agree to elect all members of the House of Commons through party-list proportional representation.

Under this system, parties make lists of candidates to be elected, and seats get allocated to each party in accordance with the number of total votes the party receives.

Majorities of voters in Quebec and Alberta (58% in each province) would be open to electing their Members of Parliament this way. Party-list proportional representation would also be endorsed by 59% of voters aged 18-to-34.

Views on the mixed member proportional representation system are more nuanced, with 39% of Canadian voters agreeing with its implementation for elections to the House of Commons. Just under three-in-ten (28%) disagree and a 33% are undecided.

Under this system, a hybrid method is utilized with the first-past-the-post system for a portion of the legislature, and party-list proportional representation for a another.

Respondents were also asked how they would have voted if the most recent Canadian election had been held under each one of these systems.

In an election held with party-list proportional representation, the Conservative Party would have finished in first place with the support of 33% of decided voters, followed by the Liberal Party with 32%, the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18%, the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois each with 6%, and the People’s Party with 4%.

“While the level of support does not change dramatically for the five parties that will be represented in the incoming House of Commons under the party-list proportional representation system, there are some differences,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support for the Liberals is slightly higher in British Columbia than it was on Election Day, and in Ontario, the Conservatives would fare significantly better.”

When asked who would get their party vote under a mixed member proportional representation system, a third of decided voters (34%) would support the Liberal list, followed by the Conservatives with 31%, the New Democrats with 17%, the Greens with 7%, the Bloc with 6% and the People’s Party with 3%.

In a mixed member election, Liberals and Conservatives would retain practically nine-in-ten of their voters under the first-past-the-post system for the other portion of the legislature.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 20 to October 21, 2019, among 803 adults in Canada who voted in the federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Canadian Voters “Happy” With Liberal Minority Scenario

Most voters would welcome an alliance or agreement involving the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [October 22, 2019] – Canadian voters who participated in the 43rd federal election are divided in their assessment of the incoming House of Commons, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who cast a ballot in this year’s federal election, 49% of voters say they are happy with the expected outcome of the democratic process: a minority government led by the Liberal Party. A similar proportion of Canadian voters (45%) are “upset” with this scenario.

“Voters aged 18-to-34 (52%) are more content with the outcome of the election than those aged 35-to-54 (46%) and those aged 55 and over (47%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of Quebecers (57%) and Atlantic Canadians (56%) are also happy with the prospect of a minority Liberal government, while 55% of Albertans and 52% of residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are upset.”

More than half of Canadian voters (56%) said they would be “happy” if the New Democratic Party (NDP) is included in an alliance or agreement to support another party in the House of Commons.

A smaller proportion of Canadian voters (47%) would welcome a similar role for the Green Party in the lower house. Conversely, only 20% of Canadian voters would be “happy” with the Bloc Québécois participating in any alliance or agreement in the House of Commons. 

Canadian voters were also asked about the possibility of uniting the centre-left parties. The most popular proposal is a formal merger between the Liberal Party and the NDP, which would make 46% of Canadians “happy”—including 69% of Liberal voters and 73% of NDP voters.

Possible mergers involving other combinations are not as popular, including one with Liberals, New Democrats and the Green Party (43%), one with New Democrats and Greens (37%), and one with Liberals and Greens (36%).

In addition, 71% of Canadian voters believe that the party that wins the most seats should form the government—a proportion that includes 84% of Conservative voters and 72% of Liberal voters.

Two thirds of Canadian voters (67%) believed it was time for a change of government in Canada. This sentiment is highest in two regions where the Conservative Party was particularly popular this year: Alberta (83%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (77%).

One third of Canadian voters (32%) say they cast a ballot for a candidate that was not their first choice, but that they perceived as having the best chance to defeat a party that they really do not like in their constituency.

Canadian voters aged 18-to-34 appear to have voted strategically (43%) more often than those aged 35-to-54 (30%) and those aged 55 and over (25%). On a regional basis, more than a third of Quebecers (36%) and Atlantic Canadians (42%) cast their ballot this way.

While the main motivator for Canadian voters was the party’s ideas and policies (27%), there are some differences among the federal parties.

About one-in-five Liberal voters (19%) and Bloc Québécois voters (22%) were primarily motivated by the party’s leader. Conservative voters had desire for change (17%) and disgust with other candidates (16%) as bigger influences, and 15% of New Democrat voters were motivated by the candidate in their riding.

A majority of Conservative voters (61%) think Andrew Scheer should remain as leader of the party. 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 20 to October 21, 2019, among 803 adults in Canada who voted in the federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Grits and Tories Are in Statistical Tie Ahead of Canadian Election

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh closes the campaign with the highest approval rating and momentum score of all federal leaders.

Vancouver, BC [October 20, 2019] – A jump in voter support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois has affected the fortunes of Canada’s two major political parties on the eve of the country’s federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of decided voters (-4 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late September) would cast a ballot for the Liberal Party’s contender in their constituency.

The Conservative Party remains a close second with 31% (-2), followed by the NDP with 19% (+4), the Green Party with 8% (-1), the Bloc with 7% (+2) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

“In September, the Liberals enjoyed a six-point lead among female decided voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now, partly due to a surge in support for the New Democrats, the governing party is practically tied with the Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the Conservative Party continues to dominate in Alberta (61%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%). In both Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Liberal Party is in first place (39% and 34% respectively).

An extremely close race developed in British Columbia, with each of the three major parties garnering the support of more than a quarter of decided voters, with the Greens at 14%.

In Quebec, where the Liberals had a 14-point advantage over the Bloc in September, the election has also tightened considerably. The Liberals now stand at 34% (-3), while the Bloc has jumped to 32% (+9)

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh heads to tomorrow’s election with the highest approval rating of all leaders at 57% (up 15 points since late September).

The numbers held steady for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, unchanged) and Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, also unchanged). 

The approval rating for incumbent Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau improved by three points to 44%, while his disapproval numbers dropped by the same margin to 51%. 

The lowest ranked leader is once again Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (18%, +1).

Singh is the only party leader to post a positive momentum score (+20), with almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) saying their opinion of the NDP leader has improved since the start of the campaign.

Bernier has the lowest momentum score (-25), with Trudeau at -24,  Scheer at -21 and May at -5.

When asked which one of the main party leaders would make the “Best Prime Minister”, Trudeau remains in first place with 30% (-3), followed by Scheer with 23% (-1) and Singh with 21% (+8). The other contenders are in single digits.

Trudeau holds a nine-point edge over Scheer on the “Best Prime Minister” question among men (33% to 24%) and a six-point lead among women (28% to 22%). 

Singh gets his best numbers on this question with women (26%, just two points behind Trudeau) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (32%, eight points ahead of Trudeau).

About one-in-four Canadians (24%, +3) think the economy and jobs is the top issue facing Canada, followed by the environment (20%, -2), health care (also 20%, +2) and housing, homelessness and poverty (16%, -1).

The way Canada’s regions feel about issues did not go through any radical shifts since late September. Housing, homelessness and poverty is still most pressing concern for British Columbians (28%), while the environment is especially important for Quebecers (31%).

As was the case last month, health care is the top issue in Atlantic Canada (36%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (22%), while the economy and jobs takes precedence in Alberta (37%) and Ontario (27%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 18 to October 20, 2019, among 957 Canadian adults, including 890 decided voters in the 2019 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca