Elections – Research Co.

Liberals Remain Dominant as Canadians Focus on United States

November 12, 2026November 12, 2026By Mario Canseco

Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue for the first time since July 2025, overtaking housing and financial concerns.

Vancouver, BC [November 12, 2026] – The standing of Canada’s main federal political parties did not vary much over the past three months, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of decided voters across Canada (unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August) would cast a ballot for the Liberal Party candidate in their riding if a federal election were held today.

The Conservative Party is second with 28% (+1), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 11% (+1), the Bloc Québécois with 6% (=), the Green Party with 4% (-1), the People’s Party with 2% (-2) and other parties and independent candidates with 1% (=).

The governing Liberals hold sizeable leads over the Conservatives among Baby Boomers (57% to 23%), Generation X (49% to 33%) and Generation Z (48% to 22%). The race is closer but with the governing party still ahead, among Millennials (38% to 32%).

Majorities of decided voters in Atlantic Canada (54%) and Quebec (53%) would support the Liberals in the next federal election. The governing party is also ahead in British Columbia (47%) and Ontario (45%) and trails the Conservatives in Alberta by five points (36% to 41%).

When Canadians are asked about the most important issue facing the country, more than one-in-four (26%, +14) mention Canada-U.S. Relations, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (19%, -4), the economy and jobs (18%, -7), health care (12%, -2) and immigration (8%, -1).

“Canadians were clearly enthralled by the midterm elections in the United States,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Canada-U.S. Relations had not been ranked as the most important issue facing Canada since July 2025.”

More than three-in-five Canadians (62%, +3) approve of the performance of Mark Carney as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party, while two-in-five (40%, +2) are satisfied with how Pierre Poilievre is managing his duties as leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party

The approval rating is lower this month for outgoing Green leader Elizabeth May (35%, -2), NDP leader Avi Lewis (also 35%, +3), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (24%, -4) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (23%, +1).

The “Preferred Prime Minister” question places Carney at 46% (+1), followed by Poilievre at 22% (=) and with the remaining federal party leaders in single digits.

Carney maintains double-digit leads over Poilievre when Canadians are asked which one of the two leaders is best suited to manage nine different issues: foreign affairs (52% to 26%), Canada-U.S. Relations (50% to 23%), national unity (48% to 26%), accountability and leadership (48% to 26%), the economy and jobs (47% to 29%), energy and pipelines (45% to 28%), health care (42% to 26%), the environment (40% to 24%), and housing, homelessness and poverty (40% to 29%).

Poilievre manages to reach or surpass the 30% mark on two issues where he still trails Carney: immigration (30% to 40%) and crime and public safety (33% to 38%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 2 to November 4, 2026, among 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Florida Stays Red, Texas Could See Senate Swing in U.S. Election

November 2, 2026November 2, 2026By Mario Canseco

Democratic candidates are ahead of their Republican rivals in Colorado, Georgia, Illinois and New Mexico.

Vancouver, BC [November 2, 2026] – Texas could elect a Democratic Party U.S. Senator for the first time since 1988, as the Republican Party seems poised for victories in two Florida statewide elections, according to new polls conducted by Research Co.

The surveys of American likely voters in six states also show Democratic candidates in Colorado, Illinois and New Mexico with sizeable leads over their Republican rivals.

Colorado

Among decided voters in the Rocky Mountain State, incumbent U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper of the Democratic Party holds a sizeable lead over Republican Party challenger Mark Baisley (61% to 37%).

In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Phil Weisler is clearly ahead of Republican Victor Marx (57% to 41%)

Florida

In the race to take over the remainder of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term in the U.S. Senate, Republican candidate Ashley Moody holds a seven-point lead over Democratic rival Angie Nixon (53% to 46%).

In the gubernatorial election, the gap is narrower, but favouring Republican candidate Byron Donalds over Democratic challenger David Jolly (51% to 47%).

Georgia

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator John Ossoff has a double-digit lead over Republican Mike Collins in the Peach State (55% to 45%).

The election for governor is tighter, with Democrat Keisha Bottoms holding a two-point edge over Republican Rick Jackson (51% to 49%).

Illinois

Democrat Juliana Stratton holds a double-digit lead over Republican Don Tracy (56% to 43%) in the election to the Prairie State’s U.S. Senate seat that had been kept by Dick Durbin since 1997.

In a rematch of the 2022 gubernatorial election, incumbent Democrat J. B. Pritzker is heavily favoured to win a new term in office against Republican Darren Bailey (60% to 38%).

New Mexico

Incumbent U.S. Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a sizeable advantage over Republican contender Larry E. Marker (60% to 40%) in the Land of Enchantment.

In New Mexico’s gubernatorial election, Democrat Debra Halland holds an eight-point lead over Republican Gregg Hull (54% to 46%).

Texas

Democrat James Talarico heads to Election Day with a three-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton (51% to 48%) in the Lone Star State.

In the gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott—who seeks a fourth term in office—is ahead of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by two points (50% to 48%).

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted from October 31 to November 2, 2026, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in six American states: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, New Mexico and Texas. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Democratic Candidates Hold Leads in Minnesota and Michigan

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026By Mario Canseco

The Senate race is closer in Ohio, while two incumbent governors are clearly ahead in New York and Pennsylvania.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2026] – The Democratic Party is favoured to hold on to its U.S. Senate seats in Minnesota and Michigan in this Tuesday’s mid-term elections, according to new polls conducted by Research Co.

The surveys of American likely voters in six states also suggest the Democratic Party candidates will win all gubernatorial races, including the incumbents running in New York and Pennsylvania.

Michigan

Democratic Party candidate Abdul El-Sayed heads to tomorrow’s election in the Great Lake State with a three-point advantage over Republican Party contender Mike Rogers among decided voters (51% to 48%).

In the gubernatorial election, Democrat Jocelyn Benson has a double digit lead over Republican John James (56% to 43%).

Minnesota

In the race for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Peggy Flanagan is ahead of Republican Michele Tafoya by five points (52% to 47%).

In the North Star State’s gubernatorial election, Democrat Amy Klobuchar has a significant lead over Republican Lisa Demuth (56% to 43%).

New York

Incumbent governor Kathy Hochul of the Democratic Party holds a 10-point advantage over Republican Party candidate Bruce Blakeman (55% to 45%).

Ohio

The race to serve the remainder of current U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance’s term in the Buckeye State is extremely close, with 49% of decided voters backing Democrat Sherrod Brown and 48% supporting Republican John Husted.

In the gubernatorial election, Amy Acton of the Democratic Party holds a seven-point lead over Vivek Ramaswamy of the Republican Party (53% to 46%).

Pennsylvania

Incumbent governor Josh Shapiro of the Democratic Party is heavily favoured to win a new term in office in the Keystone State over Republican challenger Stacy Garrity (63% to 36%).

Wisconsin

David Crowley of the Democratic Party has a six-point led on the Badger State’s gubernatorial election over Republican Tom Tiffany (53% to 47%).

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted from October 30 to November 1, 2026, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in six American states: Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

How British Columbia Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

October 26, 2026October 25, 2026By Mario Canseco

BC Conservative voters welcomed Lorne Doerkson and would not have backed the party under its previous full-time leaders.

Vancouver, BC [October 26, 2026] – The snap election that very few people wanted ended with a resounding majority for the Conservative Party of British Columbia and what appears to be the lowest voter turnout in this century (48%).

A majority government became attainable for an opposition party that received about 49,000 fewer votes than two years ago, because the governing party—the BC New Democratic Party (NDP)—saw its number of total votes fall by more than 273,000.

In our “Exit Poll”, almost half of voters who took part in the provincial election (48%) tell us they decided who they would vote for before Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby triggered the election on September 22. Smaller proportions of voters settled on a candidate or party before the televised debate on October 14 (22%) or after its conclusion (19%).

More than half of BC NDP voters (56%) figured out their choice before the election was called, compared to 48% of Conservative Party of BC voters and 31% of BC Green Party voters. There was a bit of movement in the final stages of the campaign. At a time when Eby pleaded with BC Green voters to support his party and stop a BC Conservative government, almost one-in-four BC Green voters (24%) made the decision to cast their ballot for the party led by Emily Lowan.

A look at the motivations of voters shows that a party’s ideas and policies was the biggest mover (44%), followed by the party’s leader (24%), desire for change (15%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%), desire for stability (9%) and disgust with other contending candidates (7%).

The numbers look very similar for BC Conservative and BC NDP voters on two motivators: ideas and policies (43% and 46% respectively) and the party’s leader (21% and 23% respectively). However, while 12% of BC NDP voters were primarily moved by a desire for stability, almost one-in-four BC Conservative voters (23%) focused on a desire for change. The Green Party—which reached double-digits in voting percentages—is very different. Equal proportions of its voters were motivated by the party’s ideas and policies (40%) and its leader (also 40%).

Half of voters in British Columbia (50%) describe the campaign of the Conservative Party of BC as “very positive” or “moderately positive”. This result is three points higher than the assessment of the BC NDP campaign (47%) and one point lower than the review for the BC Greens (51%).

Efforts to portray BC Conservative leader and premier-designate Lorne Doerkson as a steady and calm presence after months of mayhem certainly paid off. Only 31% of voters in British Columbia say they would have cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives under John Rustad and just 25% say they would have done the same had Kerry-Lynne Findlay remained as leader. Among voters who backed BC Conservative candidates, the proportions rise to 43% and 53% respectively. There is simply no way for the BC Conservatives to come within grasp of a majority government with these former leaders at the helm.

Across British Columbia, voters are significantly more likely to say that taxation was a “very important” issue when they decided which party to vote for (47%) than public transportation projects (29%), the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) (27%), automobile insurance (26%) or sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) in schools (25%).

Culture wars may attract views on social media, but the province’s voters who ended up supporting the BC Conservatives were not particularly amused. Fewer than three-in-ten of them say DRIPA (28%), public transportation projects (27%), automobile insurance (25%) or SOGI (24%) were “very important” as they pondered their options in this provincial election. Taxation was the undisputed main topic, at 57%. Echoing the 1992 U.S. Presidential Campaign, whose anthem “Don’t Stop” by Fleetwood Mac played during Doerkson’s final campaign appearances, this was a campaign won on the economy.

Almost half of voters across British Columbia (48%) and Metro Vancouver (49%) say they are happy with the outcome of the provincial election: a majority for the BC Conservatives. Roughly the same proportion (47%) say they would have liked to see other provincial party leaders—and not just Eby, Doerkson and Lowan—on the televised debate. What the future holds for Centre BC and OneBC, parties that managed to get 2% of the vote each running in about a third of all constituencies, remains to be seen.

As the BC NDP ponders its future, British Columbians are divided on whether it should consider a formal merger with the BC Greens into a single provincial political party: 43% agree with this idea, while 38% disagree. Among BC NDP and BC Green voters in the last election, support for a unified centre-left party reaches 66% and 60% respectively.

More than a quarter of a million BC NDP voters from 2024 evidently felt unmotivated by the campaign. The viability of a party that enters the opposition benches for the first time since 2017 hinges on reconnecting with British Columbians who may have developed an affinity in the 2020 pandemic ballot, but who were clearly dumbfounded by an election call two years ahead of schedule.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 24 and October 25, 2026, among 601 British Columbia adults who voted in the 2026 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Conservatives Extend Lead Over NDP in British Columbia

October 23, 2026November 3, 2026By Mario Canseco

Almost half of likely voters (47%, +5 since mid-October) believe Lorne Doerkson is a “premier-in-waiting”.

Vancouver, BC [October 23, 2026] – The opposition Conservative Party of BC heads to tomorrow’s provincial election in British Columbia as the frontrunner, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided likely voters would back the BC Conservatives (= since a similar poll conducted in mid-October, while 40% (-2) would support the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP).

The BC Green Party is in third place with 10% (+2), followed by OneBC with 2% (=) and Centre BC also with 2% (=). The level of undecided voters has dropped from 15% to 10%.

The BC Conservatives lead the BC New Democrats among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (43% to 34%) and aged 55 and over (48% to 41%). The two parties are tied—at 41% each—among decided voters aged 35-to-54.

The BC Conservatives hold a six-point advantage over the BC NDP among male decided voters (45% to 39%) and are three points ahead among female decided voters (43% to 40%).

The BC NDP has its best showing among decided voters on Vancouver Island (46%), while the BC Conservatives are in first place in the Fraser Valley (58%), Northern BC (51%) and Southern BC (48%). In Metro Vancouver, the BC Conservatives are four points ahead of the BC New Democrats (45% to 41%).

“In the final week of the campaign, the BC Conservatives are keeping 87% of their voters from the 2024 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is lower for the BC NDP at 78% and for the BC Greens at 61%.”

Just over three-in-five Liberal voters from the 2025 Canadian federal election (61%) will vote for the BC NDP In the provincial ballot. The governing party is also backed by 80% of federal NDP voters from last year, while the BC Conservatives are supported by 84% of federal Conservative voters.

Almost nine-in-ten decided voters in British Columbia (89%) are certain of their current selection, while 11% could change their mind and choose a different party or candidate tomorrow.

Almost one-in-five BC Green decided voters (19%) could alter their vote. The proportions is significantly lower among those currently backing the BC NDP (7%) or the BC Conservatives (also 7%).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby dropped to 44% (-5). BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson and BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan are now ahead of Eby on this indicator (48%, +3 and 46%, +7 respectively). The numbers are lower for Centre BC leader Elenore Sturko (26%, =) and OneBC leader Dallas Brodie (25%, -1).

Two-in-five likely voters (40%) say their opinion of Eby has worsened since the start of the campaign, while 15% say it has improved. This gives Eby a momentum score of -25.

The momentum scores are negative for Brodie (-8) and Sturko (-7) as the campaign draws to a close. Lowan and Doerkson remain the only leaders with a positive momentum score (+9 and +3 respectively).

The two main party leaders are now tied when likely voters ponder who would make the “Best Premier” for British Columbia: 34% select Eby (-2) and 34% choose Doerkson (+9). Lowan is third with 11% (+4), followed by Brodie (3%, =) and Sturko (2%, -2).

Just under three-in-ten likely voters in British Columbia (28%, +3) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, =), health care (20%, -1), crime and public safety (7%, -2) and government accountability (also 7%, =).

Doerkson is regarded as the best person to handle five issues: crime and public safety (35% to 25% for Eby), managing the province’s finances (34% to 25%), government accountability (32% to 26%), creating jobs (32% to 29%) and energy (31% to 29%).

Eby is ahead of Doerkson on three issues: dealing with the federal government (33% to 29%), health care (32% to 27%) and education (31% to 27%).

The race is closer on six other issues: the economy and jobs (Doerkson 33%, Eby 31%), housing, homelessness and poverty (Eby 31%, Doerkson 29%) and seniors care (Eby 28%, Doerkson 27%).

The two main party leaders are tied on child care (25% each), dealing with municipal governments (30% each) and transportation projects (also 30% each).

Lowan is preferred on the environment (30%, with Doerkson at 22% and Eby at 19%).

Likely voters were asked if 11 character traits are embodied by three provincial party leaders in British Columbia. The results outline significant drops for Eby since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in October 2024, during the previous electoral campaign.

The best rated traits for Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (50%, -7), having a vision for the future of British Columbia (43%, -8) and understanding the problems of BC residents (41%, -9).

The proportions are lower on Eby being a strong and decisive leader (39%, -9), being in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (39%, -8), agreeing with people on issues they care about (38%, -9), being honest and trustworthy (36%, -9), sharing people’s values (36%, -7), being patronizing (35%, +4), inspiring confidence (34%, -11) and being a good economic manager (31%, -7).

At least two-in-five likely voters in British Columbia say Doerkson has a vision for the future of the province (47%, -2 when compared to the findings for previous BC Conservative leader John Rustad in October 2024), understands the problems of BC residents (45%, -3), is a good speaker and communicator (also 45%, +3), is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (43%, +3), is honest and trustworthy (40%, +6) and is a strong and decisive leader (also 40%, -2).

Fewer likely voters in British Columbia think Doerkson shares their values (39%, -5), agrees with them on issues they care about (39%, +2), inspires confidence (38%, +2), is a good economic manager (also 38%, -1) and is patronizing (31%, -14).

More than a third of likely voters in British Columbia think Lowan is honest and trustworthy (38%, -4 when compared to the findings for previous BC Green leader Sonia Furstenau in October 2024), is a good speaker and communicator (37%, -7), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (36%, -5) and understands the problems of BC residents (35%, -5).

Fewer likely voters say Lowan is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (33%, -6), agrees with them on issues they care about (32%, -5), shares their values (30%, -6), inspires confidence (27%, -7), is a strong and decisive leader (25%, -5), is a good economic manager (20%, -4) and is patronizing (18%, -1).

Just under half likely voters in British Columbia (47%, +5) believe Doerkson is a “premier-in-waiting”. Smaller proportions of likely voters say the province needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives (44%, +2), regard the Conservative Party of BC as a “free enterprise coalition” (40%, +3) or think it is time to bring back the BC Liberals as a provincial political party (39%, =).

Half of likely voters in British Columbia (50%, +1) say they would be “very upset” if the BC NDP forms the government after tomorrow’s election. The proportion of likely voters who would be “very upset” if the next government is assembled by the BC Conservatives ss slightly smaller (47%, -2).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 21 to October 23, 2026, among 802 likely voters in British Columbia, including 722 decided voters in the 2026 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

How Alberta Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

October 21, 2026October 20, 2026By Mario Canseco

Most Albertans—and those who voted to stay in Canada—think a new referendum on sovereignty would be unwise.

Vancouver, BC [October 21, 2026] – The result of Question 10 in the Alberta provincial referendum ended up being similar to what was projected both in August and last weekend: a 3-to-1 margin in favour of the side that wants the province to remain in Canada over the side that sought to hold a binding referendum at a later date.

In our “Exit Poll”, almost four-in-five Albertans who cast a ballot over the past few days (78%) say they are “happy” with the outcome: a clear win for “Alberta should remain a province in Canada.” A majority of referendum voters (69%) would also have been happy with a close win for “Remain”, while fewer than a third would have enthusiastically welcomed two other scenarios: a close win (30%) or a clear win (28%) for “New Referendum”.

More than three-in-five referendum voters in Alberta (64%) express full confidence in Elections Alberta to oversee the entire voting process. For those who cast a ballot to have a binding vote on independence—who were indubitably exposed to some sorely misguided social media posts before and during the democratic process—trust in Elections Alberta stands at 51%.

Almost three-in-five voters in Alberta (59%) are convinced that foreign governments attempted to influence this year’s referendum. “Remain” voters are slightly more certain when pondering these efforts (62%) than “New Referendum” supporters (56%).

More than half of Albertans describe three referendum campaigns as “very positive” or “moderately positive”: Forever Canadian (66%), Vote to Stay (60%) and Lead, Not Leave (55%). The rating is lower for the actions of the Confederacy of Treaty No. 6 First Nations (46%) and Alberta’s Voice (44%).

In stark contrast, the messaging emanating from the campaigns assembled to advocate for separation was not universally well received. The largest proportion of positive mentions is for Let’s Talk Alberta (46%), followed by Let Alberta Decide (44%), Stay Free Alberta (37%) and Take Back Alberta (31%).

In May 2025—more than a year before the referendum was held—Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet suggested that separation for a Canadian province requires “a culture of their own”.

When asked directly is Alberta—like Quebec—has a unique culture that is different from the rest of Canada, 44% of referendum voters concur. This sentiment is more pronounced among “New Referendum” voters (75%) than “Remain” voters (33%).

In a separate question, almost two thirds of referendum voters (65%) say they are “Canadians first, Albertans second”, while just over one-in-five (22%) claim to be “Albertans first, Canadians second.” This is very different from what we found after the latest Quebec provincial election, where more than half of voters (52%) branded themselves as “Quebecers first, Canadians second.”

Our Exit Poll also found that 43% of referendum voters think the views from Albertans are different from the rest of Canada, while 27% believe Albertans have more in common with Americans than with those in other parts of Canada.

The appetite for a new vote on sovereignty—one Quebec had to wait 15 years for after its first attempt in 1980—is low. Just under three-in-ten Albertans (29%) would welcome holding another referendum on whether Alberta should remain a province in Canada in the next two to 10 years, while 58% would simply not hold a new vote on this matter.

As expected, those who voted “New Referendum” would prefer to cast a ballot again before 2036 (71%), while 75% of “Remain” supporters do not think a new democratic process related to independence is warranted.

What made this campaign different from the experience of Canadians in 1980 and 1995 in Quebec can be boiled down to two factors: experience and intellectual gravitas. Alberta’s separatist leaders were trusted by fewer than 15% of likely voters in August and October, due to a combination of rowdiness and unsophistication. The vote would have been much closer if the voices calling for sovereignty had actually governed something—anything—at some point.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 19 and October 20, 2026, among 601 Alberta adults who voted in the 2026 provincial referendum. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Albertans Set to Reject Binding Referendum on Independence

October 18, 2026October 18, 2026By Mario Canseco

Confidence in the leaders of the province’s separatist movement did not increase since August.

Vancouver, BC [October 18, 2026] – About three-in-four voters in Alberta will cast a ballot for the province to remain in Canada in tomorrow’s referendum, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Alberta, 74% will support Alberta remaining a province in Canada, while fewer than one-in-four (22%) prefer to commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

More than a third of Albertans who voted for the Conservative Party in the last federal election (35%) would cast a ballot seeking a binding referendum on independence. The proportions are decidedly lower among Albertans who backed the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Liberal Party in last year’s election (18% and 5% respectively).

Across Alberta, only 23% of likely voters in the referendum (-3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August) would like to see Alberta become a country independent from Canada, while 13% (-3) support Alberta joining the United States.

“The notion of Alberta becoming an American state is more appealing for likely voters aged 18-to-34 (21%),” says Mario Canseco. President of Research Co. “Only 15% of those aged 35-to-54 and 6% of those aged 55 and over concur.”

Likely voters in Alberta were asked if they trust 15 different individuals on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

More than half of likely voters in Alberta say they “definitely” or “probably” trust current Canadian prime minister Mark Carney (54%, +3) and former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper (51%, =) on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

More than a third of likely voters also have confidence in current federal Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (44%, -3), current provincial Official Opposition leader Naheed Nenshi (43%, -3), former Alberta premier Rachel Notley (40%, =), current Alberta premier Danielle Smith (38%, +1) and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney (37%, +5).

Professional hockey player Connor McDavid continues to have a higher level of trust on this matter (29%, +3) than leader of the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) Avi Lewis (19%, -1), Progressive Tory Party of Alberta leader Peter Guthrie (15%, -2), Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre (13%, =), Wildrose Loyalty Coalition leader Paul Hinman (12%, -1), Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies (also 12%, +2), Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder and lawyer Jeffrey Rath (also 12%, -1) and social media personality Marty Belanger (10%, -1).

The province-wide referendum scheduled for tomorrow also includes questions on immigration and constitutional issues.

Majorities of likely voters in Alberta say they will vote “Yes” on two of the five questions related to immigration:

The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election (Yes 56%, No 33%).
The Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities (Yes 56%, No 35%).

The three other questions related to immigration outline closer contests, with a significant proportion of likely voters who remain undecided or who would decline their ballot or leave their ballot blank:

The Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family’s use of the health care and education systems, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now (Yes 44%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%).
The Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially-funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services (Yes 43%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%)
The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially-funded social support programs, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now (Yes 42%, No 42%, No stated choice 16%).

Public support is also not particularly strong on the four constitutional questions:

The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King’s Bench and Appeal courts (Yes 46%, No 36%, No stated choice 18%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province’s laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province’s laws and federal laws conflict (Yes 44%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate (Yes 43%, No 39%, No stated choice 18%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs (Yes 42%, No 42%, No stated choice 16%).

As was the case in August, likely voters in Alberta believe the level of participation in the referendum must be high for the results to be regarded as a true representation of the wishes of the public.

More than half of likely voters in Alberta think a turnout that ranges from 51% to 60% of registered voters (57%, -1), from 61% to 70% of registered voters (71%, -4) or of more than 70% of registered voters (79%, -1) would suffice.

Conversely, most likely voters in Alberta say participation levels ranging from 41% to 50% of registered voters (56%, +1), from 31% to 40% of registered voters (68%, -1) or fewer than 30% of registered voters (72%, =) would not be enough.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 16 to October 18, 2026, among 811 likely voters in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Leap Ahead of NDP in British Columbia Campaign

October 13, 2026October 13, 2026By Mario Canseco

Equal proportions of likely voters say they would be “very upset” is either of the two main parties form the next government.

Vancouver, BC [October 13, 2026] – The opposition Conservative Party of BC has a slight edge over the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) in the provincial snap election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided likely voters would support the BC Conservatives (+4 since a similar poll conducted in August), while 42% (-2) would cast a ballot for the BC New Democrats.

The BC Green Party is in third place with 8% (-2), followed by Centre BC with 2% (-3) and OneBC also with 2% (+1).

“At this point in the 2024 campaign, the level of undecided likely voters stood at eight per cent province-wide,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Today, 15% of likely voters in British Columbia are undecided.”

The BC Conservatives hold a large lead over the BC NDP among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (47% to 41%, with the BC Greens at 14%) and are slightly ahead among voters aged 35-to-54 (43% to 41%). The BC New Democrats hold the upper hand among voters aged 55 and over (52% to 41%).

On a regional basis, the BC Conservatives are first in Northern BC (55% to 39%) and the Fraser Valey (49% to 43%), while the BC NDP leads on Vancouver Island (52% to 34%). The BC Conservatives are slightly ahead in Southern BC (44% to 40%) and Metro Vancouver (45% to 43%)

The BC Greens are only holding on to 51% of their voters from the 2024 election, with 25% of them going to the BC NDP, 12% to the BC Conservatives and 10% to CentreBC. The retention rate is superior for both the BC Conservatives (83%) and the BC NDP (81%).

The BC Conservatives can count on the support of 85% of decided voters who cast ballots for Conservative candidates in the 2025 federal election. The BC NDP is being backed by 78% of federal NDP and 71% of federal Liberal voters from last year.

Just over four-in-five decided voters in British Columbia (81%) say they are certain of their choice, while 19% could change their mind between now and election day.

The proportion of possible “vote switchers” stands at 15% among BC Conservative decided voters and 17% among BC NDP decided voters, but rises to 29% among BC Green decided voters.

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby remains at 49% (=). BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson debuts at 45%, 11 points higher than the last number posted by previous leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay in August.

The approval ratings are lower for BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan (39%, +4), new Centre BC leader Elenore Sturko (26%) and OneBC leader Dallas Brodie (also 26%, +8).

Doerkson and Lowan are the only leaders with a positive momentum score by the mid-way of the campaign (+2 and +1 respectively). Just under one-in-four likely voters (23%) say their opinion of the BC Conservative leader has improved since the start of the campaign, while just over one-in-five (21%) say it has worsened.

The momentum scores are currently negative for Sturko (-10), Brodie (also -10) and Eby (-19, with 36% saying their opinion of him has worsened).

More than a third of likely voters (36%) think Eby would make the Best Premier out of the five party leaders. Doerkson is second on this question (25%), followed by Lowan (7%), Brodie (4%) and Sturko (also 4%).

One-in-four British Columbians (25%, +1) name the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, -6), health care (21%, =), crime and public safety (9%, +1) and government accountability (7%, +4).

Likely voters prefer Eby to Doerksen to manage 11 issues: dealing with the federal government (33% to 23%), health care (32% to 24%), education (31% to 23%), the economy and jobs (31% to 27%), housing, poverty and homelessness (30% to 24%), government accountability (28% to 23%), dealing with municipal governments (28% to 24%), creating jobs (30% to 26%), transportation projects (29% to 23%), seniors care (28% to 22%) and child care (26% to 19%).

The two main party leaders are tied on managing the province’s finances (27% each), while Doerkson is ahead on crime and public safety (28% to 26%) and trails Eby by one point on energy (28% to 29%). Eby is tied with Lowan on the environment (24% each, with Doerkson at 18%).

More than three-in-five likely voters in British Columbia (64%) say they are happy that Kerry-Lynne Findlay is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of BC. This includes majorities of likely voters who supported the BC NDP (76%), the BC Conservatives (60%) and the BC Greens (58%) in 2024.

More than two-in-five likely voters (42%) say Doerkson is a premier-in-waiting. Fewer British Columbians expressed the same feelings for John Rustad in March 2025 (34%) or for Findlay in June 2026 (30%).

More than a third of likely voters in British Columbia (37%, +4 since June) think the Conservative Party of BC is a “free enterprise coalition”, while almost two-in-five (39%, -2) believe it is time to bring back the BC Liberals as a provincial political party.

Half of likely voters (50%) think the Conservative Party of BC is more “right wing” now that it was two years ago under John Rustad, while 42% (-5) believe British Columbia needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives.

Three-in-five likely voters (60%)—and 66% of both BC NDP and BC Conservative voters in 2024—say they are unhappy that we are having an early provincial election.

Almost half of likely voters (46%) acknowledge feeling confused with the municipal elections and a provincial election taking place in the same month.

Equal proportions of likely voters say they would be “very upset” if the BC NDP (49%) or the BC Conservatives (also 49%) form the government after this month’s provincial election.

A televised debate featuring Eby, Doerkson and Lowan will take place this week.

Just over two-in-five likely voters (41%) support including the leaders of both CentreBC and OneBC in the televised debate, even though they are not running candidates in more than half of the province’s constituencies.

Fewer likely voters would like to see the leaders of five other parties in the televised debates: the BC Libertarian Party (25%), the Christian Heritage Party of BC (24%), the CanWest Party (23%), the Freedom Party (21%) and the Communist Party of BC (also 21%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 9 to October 11, 2026, among 808 likely voters in British Columbia, including 687 decided voters in the 2026 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

How Quebec Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”

October 6, 2026October 20, 2026By Mario Canseco

A sovereigntist party emerges victorious, but voters are not overwhelmingly embracing the idea of becoming an independent nation.

Vancouver, BC [October 6, 2026] – In the mid-way point of the provincial election campaign in Quebec, the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) seemed ready to re-assemble supporters after the televised debates, as one of three parties—along with the Liberal Party of Quebec and the Conservative Party of Quebec—trying to wrestle first place from the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ).

In the final week, support for the CAQ fell to fourth place, just above Québec solidaire (QS), and the possibility of a new party taking over the provincial government became clearer.

The CAQ—which dominated in 2018 and 2022 under leader François Legault—was unable to win a third consecutive election. When we asked voters in Quebec about six possible outcomes for the 2026 provincial election, the ones that provoked the least happiness where a CAQ majority (25%) and a CAQ minority (28%). Fewer than two-in-five voters welcomed the Liberal Party of Quebec assembling minority (37%) or majority (38%) governments. The rating was higher for a PQ majority (40%) or a PQ minority (45%).

Almost half of Quebecers (47%, +13 compared to the 2022 “Exit Poll”) say the most important factor in their support this year was the party’s ideas and policies, with the party’s leader a distant second consideration (27%, -8). This question outlines some key differences. CAQ voters—just like they did in the previous election—were more likely to gravitate towards the leader (48%), while PQ voters were primarily guided by ideas and policies (53%).

Half of Quebec voters (50%) think the PQ campaign was “positive” while 38% consider it “negative”. A favourable campaign assessment is lower for the Liberals (47%), the Conservatives (44%) and Québec solidaire (43%). The CAQ—which spent ample time discussing the province’s relationship with the United States and hinted at foreign interference in the electoral process—checks in at a paltry 31%, with 57% of voters thinking its campaign was “negative”.

Once again, about half of Quebecers (49%, =) admit to having voted strategically, or supporting the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they disliked, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. This course of action was particularly popular with voters aged 18-to-34 (61%) and more likely to have moved English speakers (58%) than French speakers (47%).

The “Exit Poll” shows that this was a campaign about change, but devoid of a significant increase in the overall appetite for sovereignty. We still see voters people identifying themselves as “Quebecers first, Canadians second” (52%, =) than as “Canadians first, Quebecers second” (44%, =). More than two thirds (68%) really think the views of Quebecers are different from the rest of Canada.

Just over two-in-five voters in the 2026 provincial election (42%) think Quebecers have more in common with the people of France than with those in other parts of Canada. However, only 35% believe Quebec would be better off as its own country (56% disagree). When asked directly what they would choose if a new referendum on sovereignty were held today, only 27% would cast a ballot for Quebec to become a nation independent from Canada, while 58% would stay put.

In the end, the efforts of CAQ leader Christine Fréchette to turn the election into a referendum on which leader is best to manage Donald Trump were misguided. The incoming PQ government now faces the task of connecting with a population that remains concerned primarily about health care, housing, and jobs.

Sizeable proportions of Quebec voters think it is important for the new provincial government to have good relationships with Mark Carney and the federal government (88%) and with Doug Ford and the Ontario government (84%). More than three-in-five (61%) also say it is important to take steps to abolish the office of the lieutenant-governor and cancel its funding—a pledge made by PQ leader and incoming premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon that zeroes in on the traditionally low level of adherence to the monarchy that Quebecers have outlined in national surveys.

The lowest item on this question is establishing a timeframe for a new referendum on sovereignty. This idea is regarded as “very important” or “moderately important” by 36% of voters in Quebec—and rising to 63% among those who backed the PQ. Plamondon will need to balance the current wishes of his base with a government that establishes a contrast with the final months of Fréchette’s tenure.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 4 and October 5, 2026, among 500 Quebec adults who voted in the 2026 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Minority Looms as Quebec Provincial Election Continues

September 15, 2026October 4, 2026By Mario Canseco

The approval ratings are practically the same for Premier Christine Fréchette and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

Vancouver, BC [September 15, 2026] – Voters in Quebec appear headed to the closest provincial election since 2012, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Quebecers, 28% of decided voters would support the Parti Québécois (PQ), while 23% would back the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and 22% would cast a ballot for a Liberal Party of Quebec candidate.

Support is lower for the Conservative Party of Quebec (16%) and Québec solidaire (10%).

The PQ holds the upper hand in the Quebec City Metropolitan Area with 29%, followed by the Conservatives with 23% and the CAQ with 21%. In the Montreal Metropolitan Area, the PQ and the Liberals are tied at 25%, with the CAQ at 21%. In the rest of the province, the PQ is two-points ahead of the CAQ (30% to 28%).

“At this point in the 2022 electoral campaign, the CAQ was the only party garnering the support of more than one-in-five decided voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This year, three parties meet the same threshold.”

Only in two of the seven provincial elections held in this century in Quebec has a party finished in first place with about a third of all cast ballots: the Liberals in 2007 (33%) and the PQ in 2012 (32%). Both elections resulted in minority governments.

More than two-in-five Quebecers approve of the performance of PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (45%) and Premier and Coalition Avenir Québec leader Christine Fréchette (45%). The rating is lower for Liberal leader Charles Millard (37%), Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal (34%) and Conservative leader Éric Duhaime (31%).

Fréchette has a four-point lead over Plamondon on the “Best Premier” question (25% to 21%), with Duhaime and Millard tied at 11% and Ghazal at 7%.

Similar proportions of Quebecers say their opinion of Fréchette has improved (23%) or worsened (25%) since the start of the campaign for a momentum score of -2. The results on this question are also negative for Ghazal (-5), Duhaime (-7), Plamondon (-10) and Millard (-14).

Health care (28%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (also 28%) are tied when Quebecers ponder the most important issue facing the province. The economy and jobs is third with 23 per cent, followed by government accountability (5%), the environment (3%), crime and public safety (also 3%) and education (also 3%).

When asked which of the five party leaders is best suited to manage specific issues, Fréchette is ahead of Plamondon on government accountability (24% to 20%), the economy and jobs (23% to 18%), health care (22% to 18%), education (21% to 19%), housing, poverty and homelessness (20% to 17%) and crime and public safety (20% to 18%).

Fréchette is two-points ahead of Duhaime on energy and pipelines (19% to 17%), while Plamondon has a sizeable lead on national unity and separation over Fréchette (27% to 16%). Ghazal and Fréchette are virtually tied on the environment (20% and 19% respectively).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 10 to September 13, 2026, among 705 Quebec adults, including 613 decided voters in the 2026 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

United Conservatives Keep Lead Over New Democrats in Alberta

September 2, 2026August 30, 2026By Mario Canseco

Danielle Smith trails Naheed Nenshi on approval, but holds a four-point advantage on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [September 2, 2026] – The governing United Conservative Party (UCP) remains ahead of the New Democratic Party (NDP) in Alberta’s provincial political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Alberta, 46% of decided voters would support the UCP Candidate in their constituency while 43% would back the NDP.

The Progressive Tory Party of Alberta is third with 5%, followed by the Republican Party of Alberta with 2% and the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition also with 2%.

The race is close in the Calgary Metropolitan Area, where the UCP has a two-point edge over the NDP (46% to 44%). The New Democrats are three points ahead of the United Conservatives in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (46% to 43%), while the governing party keeps the upper hand in the rest of the province (49% to 39%).

“Majorities of decided voters aged 35-to-54 (53%) and aged 55 and over (52%) would cast a ballot for the United Conservatives in Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (57%).”

The UCP is holding on to 86% of its voters from the 2023 provincial election, losing 6% to the Progressive Tories and 5% to the New Democrats. Nine-in-ten NDP voters in the last provincial ballot (90%) are staying with the party.

Official Opposition and NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has the highest approval rating of all party leaders in the province (49%), followed by Premier and UCP leader Danielle Smith (43%), Progressive Tory Party of Alberta leader Peter Guthrie (23%), Wildrose Loyalty Coalition leader Paul Hinman (18%) and Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies (also 18%).

On the preferred premier question, Smith has a four-point lead over Nenshi (37% to 33%), with the remaining party leaders in the low single digits.

The economy and jobs is the most important issue facing Alberta for 22% of likely voters, followed by health care (20%), housing, homelessness and poverty (13%), government accountability (11%) and national unity and separation (also 11%).

Just over a third of residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area (34%) pick the economy and jobs as the most pressing concern, while almost one-in-four residents of the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (23%) select health care.

Concerns over national unity reach 20% among Albertans aged 55 and over, 16% among NDP voters in the 2023 provincial election and 20% among Liberal Party voters in the 2025 federal election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from August 24 to August 26, 2026, among 750 likely voters in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Fewer Than 1/4 of Voters in Alberta Side with Separation

August 31, 2026August 29, 2026By Mario Canseco

Stephen Harper and Mark Carney are the most trusted sources on the issue of Alberta seceding from Canada.

Vancouver, BC [August 31, 2026] – The upcoming referendum in Alberta would see a high level of support for the questions related to immigration, but the idea of holding a binding vote on separation is not resonating with the public, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Alberta, 74% say they would vote for the province to remain in Canada, while 22% would cast a ballot in favour of the Government of Alberta commencing the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

“Support for a binding referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada is highest among Albertans aged 35-to-54 (27%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer Albertans aged 55 and over (20%) and aged 18-to-34 (18%) concur.”

The survey also outlines a drop when the questions used in a January 2026 Research Co. poll are revisited, with 26% of Albertans (-5) supporting the idea of Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada and 16% (-8) welcoming the notion of Alberta joining the United States.

The province-wide referendum scheduled for October 19 also includes questions on immigration and constitutional issues.

Majorities of likely voters in Alberta say they will vote “Yes” on the five questions related to immigration:

The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election (66%).
The Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities (65%).
The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially-funded social support programs, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now (60%).
The Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family’s use of the health care and education systems, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now (also 60%).
The Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially-funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services (58%).

Public support is decidedly lower on the four questions related to constitutional issues:

The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province’s laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province’s laws and federal laws conflict (46%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King’s Bench and Appeal courts (45%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs (41%).
The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate (39%).

Likely voters in Alberta think that the validity of the referendum as a true representation of the wishes of the public hinges on voter turnout. Majorities believe a level of participation that ranges from 51% to 60% of registered voters (58%), from 61% to 70% of registered voters (75%) or of more than 70% of registered voters (80%) would be sufficient.

Conversely, most likely voters in Alberta believe turnouts ranging from 41% to 50% of registered voters (55%), from 31% to 40% of registered voters (69%) or fewer than 30% of registered voters (72%) would not be enough to deem the referendum as a true representation of the wishes of Albertans.

Likely voters in Alberta were asked if they trust 15 different individuals on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

More than half say they “definitely” or “probably” trust former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper (51%) and current Canadian prime minister Mark Carney (also 51%). The rating is lower for current federal Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (47%), current provincial Official Opposition leader Naheed Nenshi (46%), former Alberta premier Rachel Notley (40%), current Alberta premier Danielle Smith (37%) and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney (32%).

Fewer than a third of likely voters in Alberta trust professional hockey player Connor McDavid (26%), leader of the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) Avi Lewis (20%), Progressive Tory Party of Alberta leader Peter Guthrie (17%), Wildrose Loyalty Coalition leader Paul Hinman (13%), Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder and lawyer Jeffrey Rath (also 13%), Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre (also 13%), social media personality Marty Belanger (11%) or Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies (10%) on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.

Respondents to this survey were presented with potential scenarios in the event Alberta secedes from Canada.

Likely voters are evenly divided on whether they would stay put (45%) or move out of the province (44%) if separation happens.

Residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area are more likely to say they would leave a sovereign Alberta (49%) than those who live in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (44%) or in other parts of the province (38%).

Just over half of likely voters in in Alberta (51%) think a sovereign Alberta should keep a parliamentary system (where the leader of the party with the most seats in the legislature becomes the head of government), while 19% would prefer to adopt a presidential system (with a head of government that is directly elected).

More than two-in-five likely voters in Alberta (43%) believe an independent Alberta should rely on the Canadian dollar as its currency. Fewer would prefer to establish a new currency (22%) or adopt the American dollar (16%).

Just over four-in-five likely voters in Alberta (81%) think a sovereign Alberta should maintain a publicly funded universal health care system, while half (50%) would like a sovereign Alberta to reintroduce the death penalty for murder.

Fewer likely voters in Alberta would welcome other ideas after independence, such as maintaining a Goods and Services Tax (GST) (43%), allowing Albertans to own and carry handguns for self-defence (36%), making marijuana illegal (31%), making same-sex marriage illegal (27%) or making abortion illegal (24%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Governing New Democrats Retake Lead in British Columbia

August 18, 2026August 17, 2026By Mario Canseco

A provincial election would result in very close contests in the Fraser Valley, Metro Vancouver and Southern BC.

Vancouver, BC [August 18, 2026] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is once again first in British Columbia’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters (+2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2026) would back the BC NDP candidate in their constituency in a provincial election, while 39% (-3) would support the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party remains in third place with 10% (+1), followed by Centre BC with 5% (+2) and OneBC with 1% (-1).

The BC NDP is ahead of the Official Opposition among women (47% to 34%), voters aged 35-to-54 (44% to 41%) and voters aged 55 and over (52% to 37%). The BC Conservatives lead the governing party among men (45% to 40%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (40% to 34%).

“Over the summer, the BC Conservatives have dropped five points among decided voters aged 55 and over,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC New Democrats have gained in this demographic by the same margin.”

The BC NDP is ahead on Vancouver Island (52% to 26%), while the BC Conservatives hold the upper hand in Northern BC (53% to 32%). The two parties are tied in the Fraser Valley (45% each), and the New Democrats are barely ahead in Metro Vancouver (42% to 40%) and Southern BC (47% to 45%).

A majority of British Columbians (54%, +2) would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the BC NDP in the next provincial election. Consideration remains lower for the BC Conservatives (47%, +5), the BC Greens (37%, +1), Centre BC (23%, =) and OneBC (22%, -2).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 49% this month (+1). More than a third of British Columbians are satisfied with the way BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan (38%, +4) and BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay (34%, +2) are managing their duties. The proportions are lower for new Centre BC leader Mike Bernier (24%) and OneBC leader Dallas Brodie (18%, -2).

Almost three-in-ten British Columbians (29%, =) say housing, poverty and homelessness is the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs (24%, -2), health care (21%, =), crime and public safety (8%, =), the environment (5%, +2) and accountability (3%, +1).

There is a significant age gap when British Columbians ponder the most important issue. Those aged 18-to-34 put the economy and jobs at the top of the list (32%), those aged 35-to-54 select housing, homelessness and poverty (36%) and those aged 55 and over pick health care (34%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from August 12 to August 14, 2026, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadian Liberals Enjoy 20-Point Lead Over Rival Conservatives

August 10, 2026November 11, 2026By Mario Canseco

Mark Carney has a 23-point advantage over Pierre Poilievre when Canadians ponder who would make the best prime minister.

Vancouver, BC [August 10, 2026] – The governing Liberal Party is enjoying its largest lead in Canada since the April 2025 federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of decided voters across Canada would support the Liberal candidate in their constituency in a federal election, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May.

The Conservative Party remains in second place with 27% (-4), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 10% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 6% (-1), the Green Party with 5% (+2), the People’s Party with 4% (+3) and other parties and independent candidates with 1% (=).

“More than half of female decided voters in Canada (51%) are supporting the Liberal Party,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The governing party is also ahead among male decided voters (43%).”

The Liberals lead the Conservatives among Generation Z (36% to 28%) and Millennials (37% to 30%). The advantage for the governing party is larger among Generation X (50% to 29%) and Baby Boomers (63% to 16%).

More than two-in-five decided voters in British Columbia (45%), Ontario (46%), Quebec (49%) and Atlantic Canada (56%) would cast a ballot for Liberal candidates. The Conservatives have a six-point lead in Alberta (42% to 36%).

Almost three-in-five Canadians (59%, +3) approve of the way Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney is managing his duties. The approval rating is lower for Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (38%, =), Green leader Elizabeth May (37%, +5), NDP leader Avi Lewis (32%, +1), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (28%, +3) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (22%, +2).

On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney holds a 23-point lead over Poilievre (45% to 22%), with the remaining federal party leaders in single digits.

The economy and jobs remains the most important issue facing the country for Canadians (25%, +3), followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (23%, +3), health care (14%, -1), Canada-U.S. Relations (12%, -4) and immigration (9%, +1).

As was the case in May, Canadians pick Carney over Poilievre to manage 11 different issues.

At least two-in-five Canadians prefer the current prime minister over the leader of the Official Opposition to handle foreign affairs (51% to 23%), Canada-U.S. Relations (50% to 23%), national unity (48% to 24%), accountability and leadership (47% to 25%), the economy and jobs (46% to 27%), health care (44% to 25%), energy and pipelines (43% to 27%), the environment (41% to 22%), immigration (40% to 29%), and housing, homelessness and poverty (40% to 26%).

The race is closer—albeit with Carney still ahead of Poilievre—on crime and public safety (37% to 30%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from August 5 to August 7, 2026, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

1/3 of the Vote Could Suffice in Vancouver’s Mayoral Election

August 4, 2026August 3, 2026By Mario Canseco

Few likely municipal voters held positive views on the recently abandoned Villages Plan.

Vancouver, BC [August 6, 2026] – Three candidates have emerged as the main challengers to Ken Sim in Vancouver’s mayoral election, but many likely voters are still pondering their options, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of municipal likely voters measured favourability for local politicians, positive perceptions of political parties, voting behaviour in the mayoral and Council elections, and perceptions on the Villages Plan that was originally introduced by Mayor Ken Sim in October 2023, but was ultimately rejected by City Council in a 10-1 vote on July 28.

Just under two-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (39%) hold favourable views on current mayor Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC). The rating is slightly higher for former mayor Kennedy Stewart (40%) and Pete Fry of the Green Party of Vancouver (45%).

More than a third of likely voters in Vancouver (36%) hold favourable views on Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver. Kareem Allam of the Vancouver Liberals is next on the list (33%), followed by Rebecca Bligh of Vote Vancouver (31%), William Azaroff of OneCity Vancouver (25%) and Stephanie Allen of the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (24%).

When likely voters are asked about their impression of municipal political parties, 42% hold a positive opinion of ABC. Three parties are ranked higher: OneCity (44%), the Liberals (48%) and the Greens (51%). The rating is lower for TEAM (41%), COPE (35%) and Vote Vancouver (34%).

Among decided voters in the mayoral race, incumbent Sim is first with 30 per cent, followed by Allam and Fry with 19% each, and Hardwick with 14%. Support is in single digits for Bligh (7%), Azaroff (5%), Allen (4%) and other candidates (3%).

“The presence of many credible mayoral candidates has made it difficult for likely voters in Vancouver to solidify their choice for mayor,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than a quarter of likely voters in Vancouver (26%) are undecided in the election, including 36% of those aged 55 and over.”

One-in-five likely voters (20%) think Allam is best positioned to defeat Sim in the October mayoral election, while 14% select Fry and 11% choose Hardwick. Almost two-in-five likely voters (39%) cannot pick a particular candidate as the favourite to defeat Sim.

In the election for City Council, 42% of likely voters say they would “definitely” or “probably” cast a ballot including candidates representing the Green Party. ABC is second on this question (40%), followed by TEAM and the Liberals (each with 35%), OneCity (34%), Vote Vancouver (32%) and COPE (26%).

Over the past year, only two-in-five likely voters (40%) had seen, read or heard anything about the Villages Plan.

When asked to gauge the proposal based on what they have seen, read, heard or experienced, fewer than one-in-five likely voters (18%) provided a positive assessment of the Villages Plan, while 47% expressed negative views and 35% were not sure.

A final question allowed respondents to the survey to read the overview of the Villages Plan. After being exposed directly to this information, positive views rose by six points to 26%, while negative opinions increased by 10 points to 57%.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from July 30 to August 1, 2026, among 401 likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Albertans and Canadians at Odds Over Non-Binding Referendum

July 30, 2026July 30, 2026By Mario Canseco

More than three-in-five Canadians think the federal government should not allow Alberta’s separation to happen.

Vancouver, BC [July 30, 2026] – While Canadians are split when assessing the possible outcome of Alberta’s non-binding referendum on separation, half of Albertans expect it to usher in a binding vote in the future, a new Research Co. poll has found.

A non-binding provincial referendum has been set for October 19, 2026, in Alberta. One of the questions in this referendum asks: “Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

In the online survey of a representative national sample, Canadians are divided on whether voters in Alberta will choose to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation from Canada: 40% think a victory for the “leave” side on the non-binding referendum is “very likely” or “moderately likely”, while 41% consider this possibility “not too likely” or “not likely at all.”

In Alberta, half of respondents (50%) expect voters to compel a binding independence referendum at a later date, while 30% do not expect this scenario to materialize.

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%, -15 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2025) believe the United States will take steps to annex Alberta as an American state—a view shared by 24% of Albertans (-22).

One third of Canadians (33%) think it is “likely” that the United States will recognize Alberta’s sovereignty if a majority of voters choose to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada, while a smaller proportion (28%) predict a similar situation even if a majority of voters reject holding a binding provincial referendum.

Albertans are less likely to expect a recognition of sovereignty from the United States, regardless of whether the “leave” (26%) or “remain” (also 26%) sides emerge victorious in the non-binding referendum.

If voters in Alberta choose to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation, only 28% of Canadians—and 32% of Albertans—think the Government of Canada should ultimately allow Alberta’s separation to happen.

Majorities of Canadians aged 55 and over (68%), aged 18-to-34 (60%) and aged 35-to-54 (55%) think the federal government should ultimately not allow Alberta to secede.

“More than seven-in-ten Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in 2025 would welcome federal intervention to stop Alberta’s separation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “They are joined by majorities of voters who backed the Conservative Party (56%) or the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 56%) in the last federal election.

Public confidence across Canada on all political leaders on the issue of national unity is down significantly from June 2025. Just over three-in-five Canadians (61%, -6) trust the Prime Minister of Canada to make the best decisions on this file. The rating is lower for provincial premiers (51%, -8), provincial leaders of the Official Opposition (44%, -7) and the leader of the Official Opposition in Canada (43%, -8).

In Alberta, the rating is highest for the leader of the Official Opposition in Canada (50%, -6), followed by the Prime Minister (48%, -10), the provincial premier (46%, -9) and the provincial leader of the Official Opposition (40%, -13).

Only one-in-five Canadians (20%, =) think Canada would be better off as an American state, while 21% (=) believe their own province would be better off joining the United States and 28% (-1) say their province would be better off as its own country.

In a separate question, one-in-five Canadians (20%, +1) say they would vote in favour of Canada becoming an American state. Slightly fewer (18%, -1) would cast a ballot for their province to join the United States, while just under one-in-four (24%, -4) would vote for their province to become independent from Canada.

One third of Albertans (33%, -1) say they would vote in favour of their province becoming its own country, while 50% (-12) would vote against this idea and 17% (+12) are undecided.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from July 20 to July 22, 2026, among 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Current Relationship with Canada Still OK for Most Americans

June 15, 2026June 15, 2026By Mario Canseco

Fewer than two-in-five (38%, -4 since January) approve of Donald Trump’s performance as president.

Vancouver, BC [June 15, 2026] – As the United States, Canada and Mexico host the FIFA World Cup, few Americans would change their relationship with the two other North American nations, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, more than three-in-five Americans (63%, down three points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in January) think Canada should remain an independent nation, while 15% (+5) would like to see it become a U.S. territory and 7% (=) would welcome it as an American state.

The views of Americans are similar when pondering Mexico, with 68% (+1) saying it should remain independent, 11% (+1) suggesting it should become a U.S. territory and 5% (=) claiming it should become an American state.

At least half of Americans also think Panama (50%, -4) and Cuba (58%, +1) should stay independent, and a similar proportion (54%, -2) want Greenland to remain an autonomous territory.

Americans are twice as likely to say that Puerto Rico should become an independent nation (28%, -4) than an American state (14%, -3), but more than two-in-five (41%, -2) want it to maintain its status as a U.S. territory.

Across the United States, the approval rating for President Donald Trump stands at 38% (-4 since January), with 57% of Americans (+4) disapproving of his performance.

While 84% of Republicans approve of the way Trump is managing his duties, the proportion is significantly lower among Independents (25%) and Democrats (14%).

The Democratic Party holds a five-point lead over the Republican Party in the race for the House of Representatives (38% to 33%). Fewer than one-in-ten Americans (8%) say they would vote for other candidates and 22% are undecided.

The survey also asked Americans about prospective presidential candidates for each of the two major parties in the 2028 election.

Only six of the names tested are regarded as “good choices” for the Republican Party by more than one-in-five Americans: U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance (31%), Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (29%), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (28%), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (25%), the current president’s son Donald Trump Jr. (23%) and Florida Governor Ron De Santis (22%).

Fewer Americans think eight other possible contenders would be a “good choice” for the Republican Party: commentator Tucker Carlson (18%), former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (also 18%), entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (15%), Texas Governor Greg Abbott (also 15%), Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (also 15%), Missouri Senator Josh Hawley (13%), former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (also 13%) and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (11%).

Among Republicans, the top choices are Vance (67%), Rubio (54%), Trump Jr. (also 54%), Cruz (48%), Kennedy Jr. (45%) and De Santis (also 45%).

Eight people are regarded as “good choices” to become the Democratic Party’s nominee in 2028: former first lady Michelle Obama (45%), 2024 presidential nominee and former Vice President Kamala Harris (35%), California Governor Gavin Newsom (26%), actor George Clooney (25%), New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (24%), former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (23%), Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (also 23%) and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (21%).

Fewer Americans think six other politicians are “good choices” for the Democrats in 2028: Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (19%), Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (17%), Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff (also 17%), sports analyst Stephen A. Smith (also 17%), Illinois Governor JB Pritzker (16%) and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel (15%).

Majorities of Democrats think Obama (73%) and Harris (67%) are “good choices”, followed by Newsom (47%), Buttigieg (44%), Ocasio-Cortez (44%) and Kelly (37%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 4 to June 6, 2026, among 1,001 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Surging Conservatives Tie New Democrats in British Columbia

June 8, 2026June 7, 2026By Mario Canseco

Almost half of residents (47%) think the province needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the two dominant ones.

Vancouver, BC [June 6, 2026] – British Columbia’s political scene has tightened following the conclusion of the Conservative Party of BC’s leadership race, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 42% of decided voters (+4 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2025) would support the opposition BC Conservatives in a provincial election, while 42% (-2) would cast a ballot for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP).

The BC Green Party is third with 9% (-3), followed by Centre BC with 3% (=) and OneBC with 2% (+1).

The BC Conservatives are ahead of the governing party among men (46% to 40%), voters aged 35-to-54 (44% to 39%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (40% to 38%). The BC NDP leads the Official Opposition among women (42% to 39%) and voters aged 55 and over (47% to 42%).

On a regional basis, the BC NDP leads in Southern BC (50% to 41%), Metro Vancouver (43% to 39%) and Vancouver Island (42% to 39%), while the BC Conservatives are first in Northern BC (57% to 23%) and the Fraser Valley (56% to 36%).

“This month, the BC NDP is holding on to 84% (-2) of its voters in the 2024 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is superior for the BC Conservatives (89%, +11).”

More than half of British Columbians (52%, -7) would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for the BC New Democrats in the next provincial election. Consideration is lower for the BC Conservatives (42%, -3), the BC Greens (36%, -7), OneBC (24%, -1) and Centre BC (23%, -5).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby has dropped below the 50% threshold (48%, -5). About a third of British Columbians (32%) are satisfied with the way incoming BC Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay is handling her duties. The numbers are slightly higher for BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan (34%, =) and lower for OneBC leader Dallas Brodie (20%, -6) and Centre BC leader Karin Kirkpatrick (19%, -8).

Just over a third of British Columbians (36%) say they are happy that Findlay was chosen as leader of the Conservative Party of BC—a proportion that rises to 63% among BC Conservative voters in the 2024 provincial election.

Slightly smaller proportions of British Columbians think the Conservative Party of BC is a “free enterprise coalition” (33%, -4 since April 2026) or regard Findlay as a “premier-in-waiting” (30%).

Housing, poverty and homelessness remains the most important issue facing the province (29%, -1), followed by the economy and jobs (26%, +3), health care (21%, -2), crime and public safety (8%, +3), the environment (3%, -3) and accountability (2%, -2).

Almost half of British Columbians (47%, -5) believe the province needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the BC New Democrats and the BC Conservatives, and just over two-in-five (41%) believe it’s time to bring back the BC Liberals as a provincial political party—including 58% of British Columbians who voted for the Liberal Party in the 2025 Canadian federal election.

The survey asked an additional voting intention question in which the BC Liberals were included as a choice. In this scenario, the BC NDP is first with the support of 35% of decided voters, followed by the BC Conservatives (34%), the BC Liberals (15%), the BC Greens (9%), Centre BC (3%) and OneBC (also 3%).

More than one-in-four British Columbians who voted for the federal Liberals in 2025 (27%) would cast a ballot for the BC Liberals in a provincial election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from June 3 to June 5, 2026, among 803 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Little Movement in Canada’s Federal Political Scene

May 11, 2026May 13, 2026By Mario Canseco

The governing Liberals maintain a significant advantage over the opposition Conservatives.

Vancouver, BC [May 11, 2026] – Public support for the governing Liberal Party is still high in Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 46% of decided voters across Canada would back the Liberal candidate in their riding in a federal election, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February 2026.

The Conservative Party is second with 31% (-1), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 11% (+1), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (=), the Green Party with 3% (=), the People’s Party with 1% (-1) and other parties and independent candidates with 1% (=).

More than half of decided voters in Ontario (54%) and Atlantic Canada (51%) would vote for the Liberals in a federal election. The governing party is ahead of the Conservatives in British Columbia (44% to 37%) and leads the Bloc in Quebec (44% to 27%). The Conservatives hold a 16-point advantage over the Liberals in Alberta (46% to 30%).

This month, the Liberals are leading the Conservatives among Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (55% to 26%), Generation X (50% to 35%) and Generation Z (40% to 27%). The race is tied among Millennials (37% for each party).

There is no discernible gender gap on voting intention, with the Liberals amassing significant advantages over the Conservatives among men (47% to 30%) and women (46% to 32%).

The economy and jobs is the most important issue facing the country for 22% of Canadians (+1), followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (20%, +2), Canada-U.S. Relations (16%, =), health care (15%, -1) and immigration (8%, -3).

Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney continues to hold the highest approval rating among all federal leaders at 56% (+1). The numbers remain lower for Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (38%, -1), Green leader Elizabeth May (32%, =), NDP leader Avi Lewis (31%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (20%, =).

“Practically seven-in-ten Baby Boomers in Canada (69%) approve of Mark Carney’s performance,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 30% feel the same way about Pierre Poilievre.”

On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney maintains a 19-point advantage over Poilievre (45% to 26%).

When Canadians are asked which of the two main party leaders would be the best to handle 11 different issues, Carney is ahead of Poilievre on every single one.

More than two-in-five Canadians prefer Carney over Poilievre to manage foreign affairs (51% to 24%), Canada-U.S. Relations (49% to 28%), national unity (47% to 27%), accountability and leadership (46% to 30%), the economy and jobs (46% to 31%), energy and pipelines (42% to 34%) and the environment (41% to 26%).

Carney holds smaller leads over Poilievre on four other issues: health care (40% to 30%), immigration (40% to 32%), housing, homelessness and poverty (39% to 33%), and crime and public safety (39% to 35%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from May 6 to May 8, 2026, among a representative sample of 1,003 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservative Leadership Change Heralds Close Election in BC

April 30, 2026April 26, 2026By Mario Canseco

Sizeable majorities of the province’s residents want the Official Opposition to focus on health care and economic growth.

Vancouver, BC [April 30, 2026] – The perceptions of British Columbians on the five contenders in the Conservative Party of BC’s leadership race have not changed dramatically over the past two months, and no candidate would award the party a significant advantage over the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) in a snap election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, the favourability rating for the five people seeking to lead the Official Opposition is similar. Caroline Elliott is in first place (19%, +6 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February), followed by Kerry-Lynne Findlay (18%, +4), Peter Milobar (17%, +4), Yuri Fulmer (15%, +3) and Iain Black (14%, =).

At least one-in-five British Columbians who voted for the BC Conservatives in the 2024 provincial election hold favourable views on Elliott (27%, +9), Milobar (25%, +9), Findlay (23%, +7), Black (22%, =) and Fulmer (20%, +4).

The favourability rating is higher for John Rustad, who served as leader of the BC Conservatives from March 2023 to December 2025 (23% among all British Columbians and 39% among BC Conservative voters in 2024).

The “vote consideration” question also shows no decisive frontrunner among all British Columbians. Just under one-in-four say they would “definitely” or “probably” cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives with Milobar (24%, +4) or Elliott (also 24%, +2) as leaders, with slightly lower numbers for Findlay (21%, =), Fulmer (20%, +1) and Black (19%, -1).

When the perceptions of BC Conservative voters in 2024 are assessed exclusively, Milobar is ahead in “vote consideration” with 46% (+13), followed by Elliott (44%, +5), Findlay (41%, +7), Fulmer (38%, +6) and Black (37%, +2).

In head-to-head contests against the BC NDP in a provincial election, Elliott places the BC Conservatives two points ahead of the governing party (23% to 21%). Milobar and Black are one-point ahead (22% to 21% in each matchup), while Findlay and Fulmer are two points behind (23% to 21%, and 22% to 20% respectively).

In each of these five hypothetical scenarios, two-in-five British Columbians (40%) are undecided, support for the BC Green Party fluctuates between 6% and 8%, and CentreBC and OneBC are each below 5%.

When asked what is the most important issue facing the province, 30% of British Columbians (+5 since October 2025) mention housing, homelessness and poverty, followed by the economy and jobs (26%, +4), health care (23%, =) and crime and public safety (7%, +2).

The survey also asked British Columbians about specific issues the Conservative Party of BC should focus on during the next three years.

More than three-in-five respondents want the Official Opposition to get the government to invest more on health care (81%, +1 since March 2025), foster economic growth in all areas of the province (78%, -2), develop a housing policy that rivals what the provincial government is doing (65%, -5) and get more pipelines built and more energy projects approved (61%, +2).

Fewer British Columbians want the BC Conservatives to focus on banning transgender women from taking part in women’s sports leagues competitions (49%, +7), ending “SOGI-Inclusive Education” (44%), repealing the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) (40%) or reverting the ban on plastic straws (37%, +2).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 16 to April 18, 2026, among 802 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.