Stewart Keeps Lead as Vancouver Mayoral Election Looms

More than half of voters are considering independent candidates for City Council.

Vancouver, BC [October 16, 2018] – Independent candidate Kennedy Stewart remains ahead as Vancouver’s mayoral campaign enters its final days, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver voters reproduced the ballot that will be used in the mayoral election, with the names of all 21 candidates listed in the order that was drawn last month.

In the survey, 36% of decided voters (+2 since early October) said they will vote for Stewart or have already voted for him in the advance polls.

Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is second with 23% (+3), followed closely by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 19% (+3).

Support is currently lower for Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver (6%, -4), Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (6%, -1), Fred Harding of VANCOUVER 1st (2%, -2) and David Chen of ProVancouver (2%, -5).

One third of voters in the City of Vancouver (33%) are undecided, including 41% of those aged 18-to-34 and 43% of women.

“Many Vancouver voters are still making up their minds about the candidates and parties they will support on October 20,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This group includes three-in-ten of those who voted for Kirk LaPointe in the last mayoral election, and more than a quarter of those who cast a ballot for Gregor Robertson.”

Sim and Stewart are virtually tied among male decided voters (32% and 31% respectively), while Stewart leads among female decided voters (42%, followed by Sylvester at 25%).

When it comes to the election for City Council, more than half of voters in Vancouver (53%) say they are “definitely” or “probably” considering voting for independent candidates.

The parties with the highest level of consideration for City Council from Vancouver voters are the Greens (47%), the NPA (35%), the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (34%), Vision Vancouver (29%) and OneCity (27%).

Consideration is currently lower for City Council candidates representing YES Vancouver (18%), VANCOUVER 1st (also 18%), Coalition Vancouver (also 18%) and ProVancouver (16%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2018, among 401 voters in the City of Vancouver, including 265 decided voters in the 2018 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 6.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Vancouverites Ponder Independents in Council Election

Consideration for both Green Party and Non-Partisan Association (NPA) candidates increased by five points since September.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2018] – Voters in Vancouver continue to take a serious look at candidates from the Green Party and Independents as they contemplate their options in the election to City Council, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 51% (+5 since September) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider supporting Green Party of Vancouver candidates in this month’s municipal ballot.

A similarly high proportion of Vancouverites (50%, +12) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for any of the 27 independent candidates that will be listed on the ballot.

“The electorate’s appetite for independent voices is high across all age groups in Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A majority of voters aged 55 and over (57%) are considering independent candidates for one of their 10 votes.”

When it comes to established political parties, 35% of Vancouverites (+5) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for City Council candidates from the Non-Partisan Association (NPA), and 34% (+2) feel the same way about contenders from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE).

The level of consideration is currently lower for candidates representing Vision Vancouver (27%, -3), Yes Vancouver (23%, -1), ProVancouver (22%, +13), Coalition Vancouver (22%, +9), One City (21%, +2) and Vancouver First (16%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 4 to October 7, 2018, among 402 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

 

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Quebec: Who Won and Why

The 42nd General Election in Quebec has ended with a new governing party, a difficult road ahead for the Liberals, and renewed questions about the future of the sovereignty issue.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) will form a majority government after capturing 37 per cent of the vote in the province. Francois Legault will take over as premier from Liberal leader Philippe Couillard, whose party saw its share of the vote fall from 42 per cent in 2014 to 25 per cent this year.

The Parti Québécois (PQ) was unable to garner the backing of one-in-five voters (17 per cent) and experienced its worst result in history. Québec solidaire increased its seat count in the National Assembly from three to 10 members.

This election was a contest of generations. In the final Research Co. voting intention survey, the incumbent Liberals were the top choice for voters aged 55 and over (36%). Those aged 35-to-54 were more likely to cast a ballot for the CAQ (also 36%). The youngest voters—aged 18-to-34—were enthralled by Québec solidaire (33%).

In spite of their political and ideological differences, all generations agreed that it was time for something new. The sentiment for change among voters in Quebec was 68 per cent in the final poll and was remarkably similar among age groups (69% for Millennials, 66% for Generation X and 69% for Baby Boomers).

The proportion of Quebecers who were ready to see a new party in power is similar to what was observed on the eve of Manitoba’s 2015 provincial election (69%), but lower than the numbers seen in Ontario 2018 (77%) and Alberta 2015 (82%). Only British Columbia (61% in 2017) had a smaller proportion of voters advocating for a change of government.

In this century, Quebec’s “shakeup” elections featured a winning party with just a third of the vote. In 2007, the tenure of Jean Charest and the Liberals barely survived with 33 per cent of the vote. In 2012, 32 per cent of voters favoured the PQ and allowed Pauline Marois to become the first female premier in the province’s history. The 2018 election was different, as the share of the vote for the CAQ was higher than it was for the winning parties in 2007 and 2012.

The Research Co. “Exit Poll” asked Quebecers who cast a ballot in the provincial contest about their main motivations. As has been customary in previous Canadian elections, most voters across the province are moved by “the party’s ideas and policies” (43%), followed by “the party’s leader” (19%) and a “desire for change” (17%). Analyzing the motivations by party outlines some of the reasons for the success of the soon-to-be-governing party.

Among CAQ voters, 34 per cent say “desire for change” was their main motivation—a significantly higher proportion than what is reported by other opposition supporters. “Ideas and policies” is a close second (33%), followed by “the party’s leader” at 21 per cent. The CAQ was regarded as the vehicle for change, and it was successful in courting voters who previously favoured the Liberals or the PQ.

Liberal voters clearly had a good connection with outgoing premier Couillard (24% say “the party’s leader” was the main motivation for their vote). A larger proportion voted based on “ideas and policies” (39%), and one-in-five (20%) expressed a “desire for stability”.

For PQ supporters, “ideas and policies” was the main motivator (50%), followed by “the party’s leader” (17%) and “desire for change” (16%). On both of the latter indicators, the PQ ranks lower than the CAQ. Sovereignty was not a ballot issue this time around, and the PQ clearly lost votes to other contenders. The party has four years to decide where it goes, with a significantly reduced caucus and in search of a new leader.

Finally, Québec solidaire successfully attracted young voters. A whopping 67 per cent of their supporters say they cast a ballot based on “ideas and policies”, with “desire for change” (12%) and “disgust with other parties” (11%) rounding up the top three reasons. In spite of the victories, there is a dark cloud: only five per cent of Québec solidaire voters say “the party’s leader” was the main motivator for their vote.

 

Credit: Christophe Pinot

CAQ Edges Ahead as Quebec Voters Set to Cast Ballots

François Legault holds the upper hand when Quebecers are asked who would make the best premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 30, 2018] – On the eve of Quebec’s provincial election, the opposition Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) remains ahead of all other contending parties, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 33% of decided voters in Quebec (+1 since a Research Co. survey concluded on September 22) will support the CAQ candidate in their constituency.

The governing Liberal Party of Quebec is second with 30% (=), followed by the Parti Québécois with 18% (-1) and Québec solidaire with 16% (=).

Québec solidaire is the most popular party among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (33%). More than a third of decided voters aged 35-to-54 (36%) are favouring the CAQ, while those aged 55 and over prefer the Liberals (36%).

“There is a clear generational divide among voters in Quebec,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The election appears similar to the electoral processes of 2008 and 2012, where no party was able to reach the 40 per cent threshold.”

Almost two-in-five of decided voters who reside in the Montreal Metropolitan Community (39%) would support the Liberals tomorrow, while the CAQ is ahead in both the Quebec Metropolitan Community (43%) and the rest of the province (38%).

The incumbent Liberals are only holding on to 56% of the decided voters that supported them in the last provincial election, with 29% now choosing the CAQ. The Parti Québécois keeps 59% of its 2014 voters, with a third going to either the CAQ (20%) or Québec solidaire (12%).

When asked who would make the best premier of Quebec, 30% of respondents select Coalition Avenir Québec leader François Legault.

Premier and Quebec Liberal Party leader Philippe Couillard is second with 23%, followed by Parti Québécois and Official Opposition leader Jean-François Lisée with 12%, and Manon Massé of Québec solidaire with 11%.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 28 to September 30, 2018, among 625 Quebec adults, including 550 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Quebec. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

CAQ and Liberals Engaged in Tight Race in Quebec

Half of Quebecers believe health care is the most important issue facing the province.

Vancouver, BC [September 24, 2018] – The opposition Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) holds a slight edge in the lead up to Quebec’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 32% of decided voters in Quebec say they will cast a ballot for the CAQ candidate in their riding, while 30% would support the Liberal Party of Quebec on October 1.

The Parti Québécois is a distant third with 19%, followed by Québec solidaire with 16%. Three per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

The CAQ holds a three-point edge over the Liberals among male voters (32% to 29%), while the Liberals are slightly ahead among female voters (33% to 31%).

The approval rating for Premier and Quebec Liberal Party leader Philippe Couillard stands at 35%. The number is higher for both Coalition Avenir Québec leader François Legault (40%) and Parti Québécois and Official Opposition leader Jean-François Lisée (37%).

Lisée has the best momentum score f the three main party leaders (+3, with 20% of Quebecers saying their opinion of him has improved since the start of the campaign, while 17% say it has worsened). Couillard checks in at -20 and Legault at -17.

Health care is regarded as the most important issue facing the province (50%), followed by the economy and jobs (9%), the environment (also 9%), education (8%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (7%).

When asked who would make the best premier of Quebec, Couillard is first with 26% followed by Legault with 24% and Lisée with 16%.

“The race is very close heading into the final week of the Quebec campaign,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The CAQ is ahead by a small margin, but Legault has not overtaken incumbent premier Couillard as the best person to head the government.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 19 to September 22, 2018, among 601 Quebec adults, including 522 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Quebec. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca