Murphy Set for New Term in New Jersey’s Gubernatorial Election

In Virginia, the race is a statistical tie between Republican Glenn Youngkin and Democrat Terry McAuliffe.  

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2021] – The Democratic Party stands to win one of the gubernatorial elections that will take place tomorrow in the United States, according to two new polls conducted by Research Co. in New Jersey and Virginia.  

The surveys of voters who have already cast their ballot in the elections or plan to do so tomorrow show the Democratic incumbent with a seven-point lead in the Garden State, and an extremely tight race in the Old Dominion State.  

New Jersey  

In the 2017 gubernatorial election, Democratic Party candidate Phil Murphy defeated Republican Party contender Kim Guadagno in the Garden State with 56% of all cast ballots.  

Murphy—who is seeking a new term in office—heads to tomorrow’s election with the backing of 53% of decided voters in New Jersey. Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli is second with 46%.  

Murphy is supported by 88% of Garden State voters who cast a ballot for Joe Biden in last year’s United States presidential election. Ciattarelli is holding on to 91% of New Jersey voters who backed Donald Trump in 2020.  

Virginia  

Democratic Party candidate Ralph Northam won the 2017 gubernatorial election in the Old Dominion State with 54% of the vote, defeating Republican Party contender Ed Gillespie. Virginia does not allow incumbent governors to serve consecutive terms.  

Tomorrow’s election is a statistical tie, with 49% of decided voters supporting Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin and 48% backing Democratic contender Terry McAuliffe. In addition, 2% of decided voters would support Princess Blanding of the Liberation Party.  

McAuliffe served as Virginia’s Governor from 2014 to 2018, winning the 2013 election with 48% of the vote.

Methodology:
Results are based on online studies conducted on October 31 and November 1, 2021, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in two American states: New Jersey and Virginia. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

Party Platforms Were Most Influential with Canadian Voters

Almost two-in-five voters say the most important factor behind their selection is a party’s ideas and policies.  

Vancouver, BC [October 1, 2021] – Canadians who cast a ballot in the 44th federal election say that the party platforms were particularly important in helping them choose which candidate to support, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who voted in this year’s federal election, 59% say that party platforms were “very influential” or “moderately influential” in their decision to support a party.  

Practically three-in-four Canadians who voted for the People’s Party in this month’s federal election (74%) cite the platform as a major influence. Sizeable majorities of Canadians who supported the Conservative Party (67%), the Liberal Party (64%) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 64%) feel the same way, along with 39% of Green Party supporters and 19% of Bloc Québécois supporters.  

More than two-in-five Canadian voters believe discussions with family (42%) and discussions with friends (also 42%) influenced their vote in the last election, while 35% mention campaign ads on radio and television.  

While interaction with candidates on social media was an influencer for 30% of Canadian voters, the proportion rises to 43% among those aged 18-to-34. A similar scenario ensues on the issue of interactions with other people on social media. One-in-four Canadian voters (26%)—and 44% of those aged 18-to-34—say these exchanges influenced their vote.  

The survey also asked Canadian voters about the effect of seven different endorsements. More than one-in-four (27%) say they were influenced by the endorsement of U.S. President Barack Obama, including 42% of Liberal Party supporters.  

The level of influence was lower for all other endorsements, including those originating from non-governmental organizations (25%), newspapers (24%), trade associations (23%), unions (21%) former U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton (18%, and 27% for Liberal voters) and current U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (17%, and 25% for NDP voters).  

When Canadians are asked about their main motivation for supporting a party, almost two-in-five (39%) mention its ideas and policies, while one-in-four (26%) say it is the party leader.  

Fewer Canadians are primarily moved by a desire for change (12%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%), a desire for stability (9%) or disgust with other candidates (7%).  

“More than three-in-ten Canadians who voted for the Liberals and the Bloc (32% and 31% respectively) say the most important factor behind their choice was the party leaders,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower among those who cast ballots for the Conservatives (25%), the New Democrats (also 25%), the People’s Party (21%) and the Greens (10%).”  

Canadians who voted for the People’s Party were more likely to say that their main motivation was disgust with other candidates (14%).  

When asked to ponder what this federal election would have looked like with different leaders, just under three-in-ten Canadians (29%) admit they would have voted for the Conservative Party with Peter MacKay as leader or for the Liberal Party with Chrystia Freeland as leader. Fewer Canadian voters (22%) would have supported the Liberals with Mark Carney as leader.  

In the “exit poll”, a majority of Canadians (52%) say they would be “very upset” if the Liberal Party forms the government again in Canada. A slightly lower proportion (48%) would feel the same way if the Conservative Party forms the government.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 18 to September 21, 2021, among 1,900 adults in Canada who voted in the 2021 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.3 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

All Tied Up as Canadians Prepare to Vote in the Federal Election

Support for both the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party is 32%, while approval of their two leaders is also identical (42%).  
 
Vancouver, BC [September 19, 2021] – Voters in Canada head to tomorrow’s federal election with the two main contending parties enjoying the same level of voter support across the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.  
 
In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted earlier this month) would cast a ballot for the candidate of the Liberal Party in their constituency, while 32% (+2) would support the contender of the Conservative Party.  
 
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in third place with 19% (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 7% (=), the People’s Party with 6% (+1) and the Green Party with 4% (+1). In addition, 1% of decided voters in the country would vote for a different political party or an independent candidate.  
 

On a regional basis, the Liberals are in first place in Atlantic Canada (42%, with the Conservatives at 27%), Quebec (34%, with the Bloc at 31%) and Ontario (37%, with the Conservatives at 30%).  
 
Conversely, the Conservatives dominate in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (43%, with the NDP at 23%) and Alberta (50%, with the NDP at 21%). In British Columbia, the Conservatives are slightly ahead of the New Democrats (33% to 31%), with the Liberals at 25%.  
 
The Green Party gets its best result in British Columbia (6%, but reaching 14% in its stronghold of Vancouver Island). The People’s Party is particularly prevalent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (10%) and Alberta (8%).  
 
As the campaign draws to a close, the approval rating for the two main contenders is exactly the same. Just over two-in-five Canadians (42%) approve of the way both Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau and Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole have performed in their jobs. The disapproval rating is higher for Trudeau (53%) than it is for O’Toole (47%).  
 
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the highest approval rating (51%, +2), while the numbers are significantly lower for Green Party leader Annamie Paul (24%, +1) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (20%, +5). Since the start of the campaign, one-in-four Canadians report having an improved opinion of both Singh (26%) and O’Toole (25%). The proportions are significantly lower for Trudeau (16%), Paul (10%) and Bernier (also 10%).  
 
Trudeau remains ahead when Canadians are asked which of the five leaders running nationwide campaigns would make the best Prime Minister (31%, -2), followed by O’Toole (27%, +1), Singh (19%, +1), Bernier (7%, +2) and Paul (2%, =).  
 
More than a quarter of Canadians (27%, +4) think health care is the most important issue facing the country. The economy and jobs is second on the list with 22% (=), followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (15%, -1) and the environment (10%, -2).  
 
The COVID-19 pandemic is the most important issue for 8% of Canadians—a proportion that rises to 16% in Alberta.
 
Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on September 18 and September 19, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada, and 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for the survey of Canadians and +/- 3.5 percentage points for the survey of British Columbians, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490
 
Photo Credit: Iouri Goussev

Canadians Pick Trudeau to Manage Pandemic, O’Toole for Jobs

There is no clear leader on two matters: housing, homelessness and poverty, and transportation projects.  
 
Vancouver, BC [September 15, 2021] – The incumbent prime minister is the first choice of Canadians to handle issues such as health care and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the leader of the official opposition is preferred for financial and public safety concerns, a new Research Co. poll has found.  
 
The online survey of a representative national sample asked Canadians to select which one of the five federal party leaders who are running nationwide campaigns is the best person to manage 16 different issues.  
 
More than a third of Canadians (36%) think Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is better suited to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole with 22%, New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh with 12%, People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier with 6% and Green Party leader Annamie Paul with 2%.  
 
More than three-in-ten Canadians also pick Trudeau to manage foreign affairs (31%), child care (also 31%) and regulations related to firearms (also 31%).  
 
Earlier in the campaign, Erin O’Toole was tied with Justin Trudeau on the foreign affairs file,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In the final week before votes are cast, Trudeau has a five-point lead on this particular issue.”  
 
The Liberal leader is also ahead of all rivals on being the best person to handle immigration (29%), health care (also 29%), the environment (28%), Indigenous issues and reconciliation (27%), seniors care (26%), and racism and discrimination (also 26%).  
 
One third of Canadians (33%) believe O’Toole would be the best leader to manage the economy and jobs, followed by Trudeau with 29%, Singh with 15%, Bernier with 4% and Paul with 2%.  
 
The Conservative leader is in first place on three other issues: crime and public safety (29%), accountability and leadership (27%), and energy and pipelines (also 27%).  
 
There is a tie on two specific concerns. Across the country, 25% of Canadians select either Trudeau or Singh as the best leaders to manage housing, homelessness and poverty. When asked about transportation projects, equal proportions of respondents pick Trudeau and O’Toole (25% each).  
 
Paul gets her best rating on the environment (14%), while Bernier scores highest on the COVID-19 pandemic (6%).  
 
In a survey released by Research Co. this week, health care, the economy and jobs, housing homelessness and poverty, and the environment were identified as the most important issues facing Canada.
 
Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 11 to September 13, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490
 
Photo Credit: Tobi 87
 
 

Canadians Hold Mixed Views on Which Leader is Best on Issues

Just under one-in-five Canadians (17%) say they intend to vote by mail in this year’s federal election.  
 
Vancouver, BC [September 6, 2021] – As the federal election campaign continues, the three main federal party leaders are connecting in different ways with Canadians on the most important issues facing the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.  
 
In the online survey of a representative national sample, just under a third of Canadians (32%) think Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is the best person to handle crime and public safety.  
 
Trudeau is also the preferred choice of Canadians to manage immigration (30%), health care (29%) and the environment (28%).  
 
Official opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole is the top option for Canadians to handle the economy and jobs (34%), energy and pipelines (32%), and accountability and leadership (27%). O’Toole and Trudeau are tied, with 30% each, when Canadians are asked about the best leader to manage foreign affairs (30%).  
 
New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh is the most popular leader to deal with housing, homelessness and poverty (27%), with Trudeau and O’Toole tied at 24%.  
 
Health care is identified as the most important issue facing Canada for 26% of respondents, followed by the economy and jobs with 20%, housing, homelessness and poverty with 15% and the environment with 13%.  
 
The survey also asked Canadians about other characteristics and topics related to the three main federal party leaders. Trudeau emerged as the most popular option to be the Prime Minister in the event of another Quebec referendum (31%) and to represent Canada at the next round of climate change talks (30%).  
 
The incumbent prime minister is also ahead on four personality traits: having a drink with you at the local bar (28%), being on your sports team (also 28%), babysitting your kids or a relative’s kids (25%) and being part of your trivia quiz team (23%, with Singh close behind at 21%).  
 
Singh is practically tied with Trudeau on two of the items tested: having a coffee or tea with you at the local coffee shop (27%, with Trudeau at 26%) and giving you a good recommendation on a book to read (22%, with Trudeau at 21%).  
 
More than three-in-ten Canadians express a preference for O’Toole on three separate matters: negotiating with U.S. President Joe Biden on trade and security issues (34%), being the Prime Minister in the event of a terrorist attack (32%) and negotiating with Russia over Arctic sovereignty (31%).  
 
“There is a theme developing when it comes to the perceptions of Canadians on the three main party leaders,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While Trudeau and Singh score highly on some of the personality traits, like hanging around at a bar or coffee shop, O’Toole has a decisive advantage on foreign policy items.”  
 
This week, there will be two televised debates organized by the Leaders’ Debate Commission. More than two-in-five Canadians (42%) agree with the Commission’s decision to not extend an invitation to these debates to People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier, while 33% disagree and 25% are undecided.  
 
The results are similar when Canadians are asked about the presence of Maverick Party leader Jay Hill on the televised meetings, with 44% agreeing with the decision to leave him out, 27% disagreeing and 29% saying they are not sure.  
 
Almost half of Quebecers (49%) are in favour of the Commission’s decision to leave both Bernier and Hill off the stage.  
 
Across the country, 17% of Canadians say they plan to vote by mail this year—a proportion that includes 30% of British Columbians and 21% of Albertans.  
 
While more than one-in-four Canadians (26%) plan to cast their ballot during Advance Voting from September 10 to September 13, more than two-in-five (44%) intend to vote on Election Day (September 20).
 
Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from August 28 to August 30, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

Conservatives Close Gap in Canada as Liberal Lead Disappears

Justin Trudeau’s approval rating fell to 45% (-5 since June), but he is still ahead of Erin O’Toole in the “Preferred PM” question.
 
Vancouver, BC [August 31, 2021] – The federal election in Canada is currently a dead heat between the two most prominent parties in the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.
 
In the online survey of a representative national sample, 33% of Canadian decided voters would cast a ballot for the candidate of the Liberal Party in their riding, down five points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June.
 
The Conservative Party remains in second place with 32% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 22% (+2), the Bloc Québécois with 6% (+1), the Green Party with 4% (-1) and the People’s Party with 3% (+2). Fewer than 1% of decided voters would vote for the Maverick Party, for another party or for an independent candidate.
 
In June, the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives by 15 points among female decided voters in Canada. This month, the advantage has narrowed to just eight points (36% to 28%). The Tories are now in first place among male decided voters (36% to 31%).
 
The Liberals are still popular among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (34%, followed by the NDP with 29%) and among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (38%, with the Conservatives at 32%). The Tories hold a seven-point advantage over the Liberals among decided voters aged 55 and over (37% to 30%).
 
The Liberals are in first place among decided voters in Atlantic Canada (40%) and Quebec (also 40%). The Conservatives have outright leads in Alberta (49%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (46%).
 
There are close races developing in two Canadian provinces. In Ontario, the Conservatives and the Liberals are essentially tied (36% and 35% respectively). In British Columbia, the Liberals—who were leading in a Research Co. survey conducted in early August—have fallen to third place (28%), with both the Conservatives and the New Democrats at 32%.
 
There is some movement when Canadians are asked about the most important issue facing the country. Health care is first with 26% (-3), followed by the economy and jobs with 20% (-3) and housing, homelessness and poverty with 15% (+1). The environment is fourth on the list with 13% (+6).
 
“While health care remains the dominant issue for Atlantic Canadians and Quebecers, financial matters are crucial for those who reside in Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “One-in-five Ontarians and British Columbians are worried about housing, but the issue that has seen the biggest gains since June is the environment.”
 
The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau stands at 45% at the end of the month. This is higher than the numbers posted by Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole (41%, +7) and lower than NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (51%, +1).
 
Just over one-in-five Canadians (21%, -11) approve of the way Green Party leader Annamie Paul is handling her duties, while there was no significant movement for People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (15%, +1).
 
When Canadians are asked which one of the five leaders who are running nationwide campaigns would make the best head of government, the incumbent prime minister also lost some ground. Trudeau is in first place with 32% (-5), followed by O’Toole (26%, +11), Singh (20%, +4), Bernier (3%, =) and Paul (1%, -1).
 
Since the start of the campaign, Trudeau posts a negative momentum score (-24, with 39% of Canadians saying their opinion of him has worsened). Paul and Bernier are also in negative territory (-18 and -19 respectively), while O’Toole is even and Singh is at +10 (with 27% of Canadians reporting a better assessment of the current NDP leader).
 
Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from August 28 to August 30, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

Separatist Feelings Drop in Quebec, Remain Stagnant in Alberta

Most Albertans and Ontarians believe their provinces would be better off with a different premier in charge.  
 
Vancouver, BC [August 20, 2021] – While almost half of Canadians believe their province would benefit from having a different prime minister, fewer residents of Quebec are expressing sympathy towards secession, a new Research Co. poll has found.  
 
In the online survey of a representative national sample, 25% of Quebecers believe their province would be better off as its own country, down 11 points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in May 2020.  
 
Only Alberta has a larger proportion of residents who believe they would be better off as a nation (28%, unchanged since May 2020, and lower than the 40% observed in December 2019).  
 
Almost half of Canadians (47%) think their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa, up nine points since May 2020.  
 
More than half of residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%) yearn for someone other than Justin Trudeau to have responsibility over the federal government. The proportion is lower in Alberta (50%), Ontario (48%), British Columbia (46%), Atlantic Canada (38%) and Quebec (37%).  
 
When asked is their province would be better off with a different premier in charge, 47% of Canadians agreed, while just over a third (37%) disagreed.   Two thirds of Albertans (68%) and a majority of Ontarians (54%) think their provinces would be better off with a different head of government.  
 
“Since May 2020, the numbers for the premiers of Alberta and Ontario have worsened on this question,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “There is an increase in negative perceptions of eight points for Jason Kenney in Alberta and of 16 points for Doug Ford in Ontario.”  
 
The proportion of residents who are not particularly pleased with their premiers is lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (50%), Quebec (38%), Atlantic Canada (37%) and British Columbia (36%).
 
Across Canada, only 13% of respondents believe their province would be better off joining the United States and becoming an American state, down four points since May 2020. This feeling is more prevalent among residents of Alberta and Quebec (each at 17%).
 
Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 12 to August 14, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Feel Trudeau is Better for Province Than Harper

Roughly the same proportion of the province’s residents would be “very upset” with a win for the Liberals or the Conservatives.
 
Vancouver, BC [August 17, 2021] – Most residents of British Columbia believe the tenure of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada has been beneficial for the province, a new Research Co. poll has found.
 
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 54% of British Columbians think the province has been treated “very well” or “well” by Trudeau, while one third (34%) believe it has been treated “poorly” or “very poorly.
 
Respondents are almost evenly split when assessing the effect of the federal government headed by Stephen Harper on British Columbia, with 38% saying he treated the province “very well” or “well” and 42% believing he behaved “poorly” or “very poorly.”
 
“Almost half of British Columbians aged 55 and over (48%) hold a favourable view on the way the current federal government is treating the province,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Just over a third (35%) feel the same way about the previous federal administration.”
 
Across British Columbia, just over half of residents (51%) say they would be “very upset” if the Conservative Party forms the government again in Ottawa. Animosity towards a Tory administration rises to 53% among Green Party voters in 2019, 68% among Liberal voters and 72% among New Democratic Party (NDP) voters.
 
Just under half of British Columbians (48%) say they would be “very upset” if the Liberals win the next election and remain in power, including 85% of Conservative voters, 61% of Green voters and 54% of NDP voters.
 
Only 35% of British Columbians would be “very upset” if the NDP forms the government for the first time in Ottawa after the next federal election. This includes two thirds of Conservative voters (66%), but significantly lower proportions of those who voted for the Liberals (43%) or the Greens (32%) in 2019.
 
Four of the current ministers in the federal government represent constituencies located in British Columbia and are seeking re-election this year as candidates for the Liberal Party.
 
Minister of National Defence Harjit Sajjan has the best approval rating of the four BC-based federal ministers (37%), followed by Minister of Environment and Climate Change Jonathan Wilkinson (31%), Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Disability Inclusion Carla Qualtrough (29%) and Minister of Digital Government Joyce Murray (27%).
 
Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 7 to August 9, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca
 

Liberals Ahead of NDP as British Columbians Ponder Federal Ballot

A majority of British Columbians approve of the way Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh are handling their duties.
 
Vancouver, BC [August 11, 2021] – The governing Liberal Party is currently the most popular federal political organization in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.
 
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 37% of decided voters in British Columbia say they would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their constituency if a federal election were held tomorrow.
 
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 29%, followed by the Conservative Party with 23%, the Green Party with 8% and the People’s Party with 2%. Fewer than 1% of decided voters would support the Maverick Party or vote for another party or an independent candidate.
 
The Liberals are in first place in Metro Vancouver (40%) and Southern BC (32%). The races are tighter in the Fraser Valley (Liberals 34%, NDP 32%) and on Vancouver Island (Liberals 33%, NDP 32%).
 
“There is a significant gender gap when British Columbians assess Canada’s main opposition party,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While 27% of male decided voters in the province would back the Conservatives, only 19% of female decided voters share the same view.”
 
Just over half of British Columbians (51%) approve of the way Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau has performed in his job. The rating is slightly higher for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (53%) and significantly lower for Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (29%), Green Party leader Annamie Paul (24%), People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (13%) and Maverick Party leader Jay Hill (9%).
 
A third of British Columbians (33%) believe Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister of Canada. Singh has a six-point edge over O’Toole (22% to 16%), with Paul and Bernier in the low single digits (3% and 2% respectively).
 
Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing Canada for 26% of British Columbians, followed by the economy and jobs (20%), health care (19%) and the environment (13%).
 
Trudeau is regarded as the best party leader to manage foreign affairs (32%), the economy and jobs (31%), immigration (28%), crime and public safety (25%), the environment (also 25%) and accountability and leadership (also 25%).
 
Singh is seen as the best person to handle housing, homelessness and poverty (29%, with Trudeau at 21%).
 
Trudeau is virtually tied with O’Toole on energy and pipelines (23% to 21%) and with Singh on health care (26% to 28%).
 
Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 7 to August 9, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca
 
Photo Credit: Dllu

British Columbians Give Mixed Reviews to Horgan After Four Years

Almost three-in-five residents (59%) think it has become harder for them to make ends meet in the province.

Vancouver, BC [August 3, 2021] – A significant proportion of British Columbians are concerned about affordability issues four years after the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) formed the provincial government, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 59% of British Columbians say it has become harder to make ends meet over the course of the past four years.

“The concerns about the high cost of living in British Columbia are significant across the political spectrum,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of residents who voted for the BC Green Party (70%), the BC NDP (59%) and the BC Liberals (55%) in last year’s provincial election state that making ends meet is more difficult now than in 2017.”

Almost three-in-four British Columbians (74%) think buying a house is now harder than it was in 2017, and more than three-in-five (63%) feel the same way about saving money for retirement.

Roughly half of British Columbians think paying for post-secondary education (52%) and finding a job (49%) are now more difficult than four years ago.

In a Canada-wide Research Co. survey conducted in June 2021, 14% of Canadians—and 19% of British Columbians—identified housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the country.

Just over seven-in-ten British Columbians (71%) believe the housing situation in the province is worse now than it was in 2017, and a majority (53%) feel the same way about taxation.

Just under half of British Columbians (48%) think that public safety is worse now than it was four years ago.

More than two-in-five British Columbians believe there has been no change on four other government files: public schools (49%), health care (48%), the justice system (46%) and the environment (42%).

Half of British Columbians (50%) believe BC NDP leader John Horgan has performed “about the same” as they expected after he became the province’s premier in July 2017.

Similar proportions of British Columbians think Horgan has performed better (20%) or worse (19%) than they originally envisioned.

One third of British Columbians (33%) believe it is too early to judge Horgan’s accomplishments since he became premier, while 26% think he has done little and 21% say he has achieved much.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 17 to July 19, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals Have Eight-Point Lead Over Tories in Canada

Health care is the most important issue facing the country for three-in-ten Canadians, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [June 17, 2021] – The governing Liberal Party remains ahead of its rivals in Canada’s federal political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of Canadian decided voters would support the Liberal candidate in their constituency if a federal election were held tomorrow, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in March.

The Conservative Party is second with 30% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (=), the Bloc Québécois with 5% (-2), the Green Party also with 5% (-1) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by 15 points among female decided voters (40% to 25%). Among male decided voters, the Liberals are barely ahead of the Conservatives (37% to 35%).

This month, the Liberal Party fares best with decided voters aged 55 and over (41%, with the Conservatives at 36%) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (40%, with the NDP at 29%). The race is closer among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (36% for the Liberals, and 34% for the Conservatives).

The Liberals remain the most popular federal party among decided voters in Atlantic Canada (49%), Ontario (42%) and Quebec (39%). The Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta (50%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (also 50%). In British Columbia, the New Democrats are in first place (34%), followed by the Liberals (31%) and the Conservatives (27%).

Half of Canadians (50%, -6) approve of the way Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is handling his duties.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh posted the same approval rating as Trudeau (50%, +4). The numbers are lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole (34%, +1), Green Party leader Annamie Paul (32%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (14%, -1).

More than a third of Canadians select Trudeau when asked which one of the main party leaders would make the best prime minister (37%, -3). For the first time, Singh is in second place on this indicator (17%, +5), followed by O’Toole (15%, =), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (3%, +1), Bernier (3%, +1) and Paul (2%, -1).

Health care is identified as the most important issue facing the country by 29% of Canadians (-4), followed by the economy and jobs (23%, -1), housing, homelessness and poverty (14%, +5), the environment (9%, +2) and COVID-19 (7%, -4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from June 12 to June 14, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Makaristos

Liberals Stay Ahead as Conservative Support Falls in Canada

Two-in-five Canadians think Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister, as Erin O’Toole drops to 15% on this question.

Vancouver, BC [March 18, 2021] – Public support for the governing Liberal Party remains stable in Canada since the end of last year, while fewer voters are willing to cast a ballot for the Conservative Party, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of decided voters in Canada would back the Liberal candidate in their constituency if a federal election were held tomorrow, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.

The Conservatives are in second place with 28% (-3), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (=), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (=), the Green Party with 6% (+3) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Liberals hold a three-point edge over the Conservatives among male decided voters (34% to 31%). Among female decided voters, the Liberals are also first (40%), with the Conservatives and New Democrats tied at 24%.

Support for the Liberal Party is strongest among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (41%, with the NDP in second place with 27%). The governing party is also ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (35%, with the Conservatives at 30%) and aged 55 and over (37% to 29%).

More than two-in-five decided voters in Atlantic Canada (46%), Quebec (43%) and Ontario (42%) are currently backing the Liberals, while the Conservatives are leading in Alberta (46%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (41%). In British Columbia, the New Democrats are slightly ahead of the Liberals (31% to 29%), with the Conservatives in third place (26%).

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau stands at 56% this month (+1) and is higher among women (60%) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (67%).

A third of Canadians (33%, -2) are satisfied with the performance of Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, a proportion that jumps to 47% among Albertans.

“In September 2020, Canadians were divided in three identical groups when assessing O’Toole’s performance as leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Since then, disapproval has risen by 12 points to 46%, and the level of undecideds has fallen from 33% to 21%.”

Since December, the approval rating for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh remains stable (46%, =). The numbers improved for Green Party leader Annamie Paul (30%, +5) and fell slightly for People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (15%, -2).

Trudeau maintains a sizeable advantage over his rivals when Canadians are asked who would make the best prime minister of the country (40%, +1). O’Toole is a distant second on this question with 15% (-7), followed by Singh (12%, -1), Paul (3%, +1), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (2%, =) and Bernier (2%, -1).

A third of Canadians (33%, +5) believe health care is the most important issue facing the country today, followed by the economy and jobs (24%, -3), COVID-19 (11%, -4), housing, homelessness and poverty (9%, =) and the environment (7%, +1).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from March 13 to March 15, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

One-in-Four Albertans Support Becoming an Independent Nation

The idea of independence is more appealing to the province’s residents if Saskatchewan and British Columbia join in.

Vancouver, BC [February 16, 2021] – Support for the formation of a country independent of Canada grows in both Alberta and Saskatchewan if British Columbia is included in the territory, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of Canadians in the three western provinces gauged support for sovereignty under various scenarios.

The idea of an independent country that would encompass British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan is appealing to 29% of both Albertans and Saskatchewanians, but only to 12% of British Columbians.

Almost half of Albertans who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the 2019 provincial election (47%), more than a third of men in Saskatchewan (35%) and almost three-in-ten residents of Northern BC (28%) voice support for an independent country encompassing the three western provinces.

In this survey, one-in-four Albertans (25%) are in favour of their province becoming a country independent from Canada. This level of support is consistent with what was observed in similar questions asked by Research Co. in December 2018 (25%) but lower than the numbers registered in July 2019 (30%).

Fewer than one-in-six residents of Saskatchewan (16%) and British Columbia (12%) are in favour of their respective provinces becoming sovereign on their own.

When asked about the possibility of an independent nation encompassing Alberta and Saskatchewan, one-in-four Albertans (26%) and one-in-five Saskatchewanians (21%) are in favour.

Only 13% of British Columbians agree with the prospect of forming a sovereign nation with Alberta. While 18% of Albertans support their province joining the United States, only 7% of British Columbians concur.

Residents of the three provinces were also asked about their perceptions of specific levels of government. At least three-in-five Saskatchewanians (62%) and British Columbians (60%) consider their own provincial government as “very responsive” or moderately responsive” to their needs and the needs of other residents. In Alberta, only 43% of respondents feel the same way.

“In Alberta, the criticism towards the provincial government is not coming exclusively from supporters of opposition parties,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Half of those who voted for the UCP in 2019 (50%) believe that the current administration is responsive, but two-in-five (41%) do not.”

The responsiveness of local governments was rated positively by majorities of residents in each of the three provinces (64% in Saskatchewan, 60% in British Columbia and 58% in Alberta). 

While more than two-in-five British Columbians (45%) believe the federal government is responsive to their needs, the proportion drops to 32% in Alberta and 26% in Saskatchewan.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from February 7 to February 9, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults in Alberta and 600 adults in Saskatchewan. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta and Saskatchewan, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables for British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals Stay Ahead in Canada as Trudeau’s Rating Improves

Health care (28%, +3) is regarded as the most important issue facing the country, followed by the economy and jobs (27%, -2).

Vancouver, BC [December 17, 2020] – The governing Liberal Party maintains the upper hand in Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of decided voters would support the Liberal candidate in their riding if a federal election were held today, down one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in September.

The Conservative Party is second with 31% (-1), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (+3), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (-1), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Liberals are nine points ahead of the Conservatives among female decided voters (38% to 29%) and hold a three-point edge among male decided voters (36% to 33%).

The Conservatives are the most popular federal party in Alberta (51%) and in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (48%). The Liberals are ahead in Atlantic Canada (44%), Quebec (45%, with the Bloc at 35%) and Ontario (37%). In British Columbia, the New Democrats and the Conservatives are essentially tied (34% and 33% respectively), with the Liberals at 29%.

Health care is regarded as the most important issue facing the country by 28% of Canadians (+3), followed by the economy and jobs (27%, -2), COVID-19 (15%), housing, homelessness and poverty (9%, -3) and the environment (6%, -1).

“Concerns about health care are more prevalent among Canadians aged 35-to-54 (30%) and Canadians aged 55 and over (29%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Those aged 18-to-34 are more likely to be preoccupied with the economy and jobs (36%).”

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is 55%, up five points since September, while 40% of Canadians disapprove of his performance (-5).

Trudeau’s rating is highest in Atlantic Canada (60%), followed by Ontario (59%), British Columbia (58%), Quebec (55%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (42%) and Alberta (37%).

Just over one third of Canadians (35%, +2) approve of the way Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole has handled his duties, while 38% (+4) disapprove—including 45% of Quebecers.

Almost half of Canadians (46%, +2) approve of the performance of Jagmeet Singh as leader of the NDP. The numbers are lower for Green Party leader Annamie Paul (25%) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (17%, +3).

Trudeau remains ahead of all other leaders when Canadians are asked who would make the best prime minister of the country (39%, +1), followed by O’Toole (22%, -1), Singh (13%, =), Bernier (3%, +1), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (2%, -1) and Paul (2%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from December 12 to December 14, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

A Third of Americans Want to See Trump Run Again in 2024

Three-in-five (61%) believe the investigations into the outgoing president’s taxes should continue.

Vancouver, BC [December 9, 2020] – More than half of Americans would not welcome a new presidential bid by Donald Trump four years from now, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 34% of Americans say they would like to see Trump run again for president in 2024, while 58% disagree and 8% are undecided.

The possibility of a new Trump campaign is attractive for 66% of Republicans, 24% of Independents and 10% of Democrats.

Americans who watch Fox News are significantly more likely to endorse a Trump candidacy in 2024 (55%) than those who watch a local network (26%), CNN (also 26%) or MSNBC / CNBC (13%).

Only 15% of African Americans would like to see Trump become a presidential candidate again in the next election, compared to 32% of Latino / Hispanic Americans and 37% of White Americans. 

Three-in-five Americans (61%) believe the investigations into Trump’s taxes should continue—a proportion that includes 84% of Democrats, 63% of Independents and 34% of Republicans.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the 2020 United States Presidential election, with more than 51% of all cast ballots and 308 votes in the Electoral College.

More than two-in-five Americans (45%) believe president-elect Biden should commit to serving only one term in office, while 38% disagree with this course of action.

Americans aged 18-to-34 are more likely to wish for Biden’s commitment to be a one-term president (52%) than those aged 35-to-54 (44%) and those aged 55 and over (42%).

Two thirds of Americans (68%) are satisfied with the way their local governments have dealt with the COVID-19 outbreak, down one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October

A majority of Americans (64%, -1) are satisfied with the performance of state governments, while only 44% (-1) are content with the way the federal government has managed the pandemic.

The approval rating for Trump stands at 42% this month, down four points since a Research Co. survey conducted in early November. More than half of Americans (54%, +2) disapprove of the way the president is handling his duties.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from December 3 to December 5, 2020, among 1,200 American adults.  The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Samson Katt

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Opposition NDP Edges Ahead of Governing UCP in Alberta

Almost two thirds of the province’s residents (65%) oppose the introduction of a provincial sales tax (PST).

Vancouver, BC [December 7, 2020] – The New Democratic party (NDP) holds the upper hand in Alberta’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 43% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the opposition NDP if a provincial election were held today, while 40% would support the governing United Conservative Party (UCP).

The Alberta Party is third with 9%, followed by the Green Party (2%), the Liberal party (also 2%) and the Wildrose Independence Party (also 2%).

The NDP holds a 10-point lead over the UCP among female decided voters (46% to 36%), while the governing party is ahead among male voters (43% to 41%).

The UCP is the top choice for decided voters aged 55 and over (48% to 38%) while the NDP leads among those aged 18-to-34 (45% to 36%) and those aged 35-to-54 (42% to 39%).

The NDP has a sizeable lead in Edmonton (55% to 30%), while the UCP is slightly ahead in Calgary (44% to 42%) and holds a substantial advantage in the rest of the province (49% to 32%).

“The United Conservative Party is holding on to 74% of its voters from the 2019 election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Some former UCP voters are currently looking at supporting the New Democrats (11%), the Alberta Party (7%) and the Wildrose Independence Party (5%).”

Across the province, just over two-in-five Albertans (42%) approve of the way Premier and UCP leader Jason Kenney is handling his duties while half (50%) disapprove. Residents are split when assessing the performance of official opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley (Approve 45%, Disapprove 46%). 

The approval ratings are significantly lower for Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie (16%), interim Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman (also 16%) and Alberta Party interim leader Jacquie Fenske (15%).

The economy and jobs is identified as the most important issue facing the province by 43% of Albertans, followed by health care (27%), government accountability (7%), COVID-19 (6%) and energy and pipelines (4%).

When asked about the possible introduction of a provincial sales tax (PST) given Alberta’s fiscal challenges, almost two thirds of residents (65%) voiced opposition to the idea, while 28% supported it.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from December 2 to December 4, 2020, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Canadians and Americans Would Allow Legal Immigrants to Vote

Support for allowing people aged 16 and 17 to cast ballots in federal elections is decidedly lower.

Vancouver, BC [November 27, 2020] – Sizeable majorities of adults in Canada and the United States are willing to allow permanent residents to participate in democratic processes that are currently accessible only to citizens, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 72% of Canadians agree with allowing permanent residents to vote in federal elections, while 20% disagree.

In the United States, 64% of respondents would allow permanent residents—sometimes referred to as “Green Card Holders”—to cast ballots in federal elections, while 27% are opposed to this idea.

“Support for extending federal voting rights to permanent residents of Canada encompasses majorities of voters who supported the Liberal Party (78%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (71%) and the Conservative Party (66%) in the last federal election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In the United States, the idea is attractive to 76% of Democrats, 62% of Republicans and 51% of Independents.”

More than three-in-five Canadians (62%) are opposed to allowing people aged 16 and 17 to vote in federal elections, while 29% agree with this idea.

Extending voting rights to people aged 16 and 17 is rejected by large proportions of Canadians aged 55 and over (72%). Albertans (78%) and Conservative Party voters in 2019 (also 78%).

In the United States, more than half of respondents (58%) disagree with allowing people aged 16 and 17 to cast ballots in federal elections, while 33% are in favour of this idea.

American residents aged 55 and over (77%) and Independents (74%) are more likely to believe that voting rights should not be extended to those aged 16 and 17.

Methodology:
Results are based on online studies conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2020, among representative samples of 1,000 adults in Canada and 1,200 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian and U.S. census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for Canada and +/- 2.8 percentage points for the United States.

Find our data tables for Canada here, the data tables for the United States here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Vancouverites Support Zoning Law Changes, SkyTrain to UBC

More than half of likely voters would abandon the “at-large system” and move to a “ward system” to elect councillors.

Vancouver, BC [November 20, 2020] – More than half of likely voters in the City of Vancouver are in favour of a proposal to modify zoning laws, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in the City of Vancouver, 53% of respondents support changing zoning laws to allow property owners to build up to six strata title units on a standard lot, provided the new building is no taller than an average home.

Support for this modification is highest among women (55%) and likely voters aged 35-to-54 (53%), those who voted for independent candidate Kennedy Stewart in the 2018 mayoral election (56%) and those who voted for Non-Partisan Association (NPA) candidate Ken Sim (also 56%).

Four-in-five likely voters in the City of Vancouver (81%) support extending the Skytrain Millennium Line (currently under construction to Arbutus) to the University of British Columbia (UBC) campus at Point Grey. This includes sizeable majorities of respondents in the West Side (78%), East Side (81%) and Downtown (86%).

When asked about specific issues related to municipal elections in the City of Vancouver, 52% of likely voters think the “at-large system” (where voters select 10 councillors) should be abandoned and replaced by a “ward system” (where councillors can be elected in specific constituencies).

“Majorities of likely voters aged 18-to-34 (60%) and aged 35-to-54 (55%) favour a ward system to elect councillors in the City of Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support drops to 39% among likely voters aged 55 and over.”

Three-in-five likely voters (60%) would like to see candidates running for office in the City of Vancouver presenting the signatures of 100 nominators, instead of the current threshold of 25. In addition, 55% of likely voters think anyone who wants to run for public office in municipal elections should pay a $500 deposit to register, instead of the current one of $100.

Just under half of likely voters (46%) think it would be worthwhile to explore the idea of amalgamating all of the municipalities in Metro Vancouver, like they did in Toronto or Montreal. The notion of reviewing the possibility of amalgamation is more popular among men (49%) and likely voters aged 18-to-34 (48%).

Likely voters are divided on the idea of eliminating the Board of Parks and Recreation and placing public parks and the public recreation system under the jurisdiction of City Council. Across the city, 44% of likely voters agree with this idea, while 48% disagree.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from November 9 to November 12, 2020, among 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Biden Will Capture Popular Vote Win in U.S. Presidential Election

Almost three-in-five decided female voters in the United States would support, or have voted for, the Democratic nominee.

Vancouver, BC [November 2, 2020] – Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden stands to win a majority of the votes cast in the United States presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 53% of decided voters would vote for Biden tomorrow or have already done so—unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-October.

Republican incumbent Donald Trump is a distant second with 44%. Support is lower for both Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party (1%) and Howie Hawkins of the Green Party (also 1%).

While Trump is barely ahead among male decided voters (48% to 47%), Biden holds a 20-point advantage among female decided voters (59% to 39%). 

Biden holds large leads among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (53% to 42%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (54% to 44%). The race is closer among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (Biden 50%, Trump 47%). 

“More than half of decided voters who identify as Independent (54%) will support Biden in the presidential election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is 13 points behind (41%) among this group.”

Sizeable majorities of decided voters in the Northeast (59%) and the West (59%) are voting for Biden. The Democratic nominee holds a three-point edge in the Midwest (50% to 47%), while Trump leads by the same margin in the South (50% to 47%).

The race remains tight among White decided voters (50% for Biden, 48% for Trump), while Biden is still ahead among African Americans (88%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (61%).

Only 29% of decided voters who watch Fox News will support Biden in the election. The Democratic nominee fares better among decided voters who get their news from CNN (70%) and MSNBC/CNBC (88%).

The primary motivation for decided voters in the United States (43%) continues to be the candidate’s ideas and policies, followed by a desire for stability (17%), the candidate’s political party (14%), disgust with other candidates (also 14%) and a desire for change (13%).

The approval rating for Donald Trump on the eve of the election stands at 46%, up three points since mid-October. More than half of Americans (52%, -2) disapprove of his performance as president.

The groups that provide the highest marks to Trump are men (51%), Americans aged 35-to-54 (49%), residents of the South (52%) and Fox News watchers (72%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 31 to November 2, 2020, among 1,100 American adults, including 1,025 likely voters in the United States and 974 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.9 percentage points for American adults, +/- 3.0 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.1 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Set to Flip in U.S. Election

Ohio remains too close to call, while there is little danger for the Democrats in Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey and New York.

Vancouver, BC [November 2, 2020] – Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds the upper hand over Republican incumbent Donald Trump in the crucial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as American voters prepare to cast ballots in the United States presidential election, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in eight states.

The surveys of Americans who have already participated in the democratic process or plan to do so tomorrow also outline a tight race in Ohio, and give Biden the lead in Illinois, New Jersey, Minnesota and New York. 

Four Democrats who are seeking to retain their seats in the U.S. Senate are also ahead of their Republican rivals.

Illinois

No Republican nominee has carried the Prairie State since George H. W. Bush in 1988. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in Illinois with 55% of the vote. 

Biden holds a 19-point advantage over Trump among decided voters in Illinois (59% to 40%). Decided voters aged 18-to-34 prefer Biden over Trump by a 2-to-1 margin (66% to 32%).

In the election to the U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin holds a significant lead over GOP challenger Mark Curran (60% to 35%).

Michigan

Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)

Biden heads to Election Day with an eight-point advantage over the Republican incumbent in Michigan (53% to 45%). Independent decided voters in Michigan are more likely to support Biden (49%) than Trump (44%).

Incumbent U.S. Senator Gary Peters is ahead of Republican candidate John James by six points (52% to 46%).

Minnesota

The last Republican nominee to carry the North Star State was Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton defeated Trump by 44,593 votes to secure Minnesota for the Democrats in 2016 (46.4% to 44.9%).

Biden is ahead of Trump by nine points (54% to 45%). The Democratic nominee holds a higher level of support among female decided voters (61%) than among their male counterparts (47%).

Democratic U.S. Senator Tina Smith—who won a Special Election in 2018—stands to earn a full six-year term, with a 13-point advantage over Republican candidate Jason Lewis (55% to 42%).

New Jersey

No Republican nominee has emerged victorious in the Garden State since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Four years ago, Clinton carried New Jersey with 55% of the vote.

Biden currently leads Trump by 19 points (59% to 40%) and can count on the support of 54% of decided voters who identify as Independent.

In the race for the U.S. Senate seat, incumbent Democrat Cory Booker is ahead of Republican rival Rik Mehta by 26 points (62% to 36%).

New York

In the last 10 presidential elections, only Ronald Reagan has been able to carry the Empire State for the Republican Party in 1980 and 1984. In 2016, Clinton won New York with 59% of the vote.

Biden is ahead of Trump by a sizeable margin (64% to 34%). Practically three-in-four female voters in New York (73%) will cast a ballot for Biden or have already done so.

Ohio

The Buckeye State has given its electoral votes to the winner of every presidential election held in the United States since 1964. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by eight points (51% to 43%)

Biden and Trump are tied among decided voters in Ohio (49% and 49%). There is a higher level of undecided voters among women (6%) than among men (2%).

Pennsylvania

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush in 1988, defeating Clinton by 44,292 votes (48.2% to 47.5%).

Biden holds a six-point edge over Trump in Pennsylvania (52% to 46%). More than half of men (54%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (52%) intend to support the Republican nominee or have already cast a ballot for him.

Wisconsin

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, defeating Clinton by 22,748 votes 47.2% to 46.5%).

Biden is ahead of Trump by nine points in Wisconsin (54% to 45%). Support for the Democratic nominee is strongest among women (58%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (also 58%).

Methodology:
Results are based on online studies conducted on October 31 and November 1, 2020, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in eight American states: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca