Many Likely Voters in British Columbia Plan to Vote by Mail in 2020

Nine-in-ten likely voters in the province have confidence in Elections BC to oversee the entire voting process this year.

Vancouver, BC [September 28, 2020] – British Columbia could see a substantial number of mail-in ballots in this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, three-in-ten likely voters in British Columbia (29%) say they intend to cast their ballot by mail this year, up from 2% who recall voting this way in 2017.

While 58% of respondents to this survey remember voting in person on Election Day in the last provincial election, only 28% say they are currently planning to cast their ballot in the same fashion on October 24.

The proportion of likely voters who intent to cast their ballot during the Advance Voting period is also lower in 2020. In 2017, 36% of respondents say they took advantage of this option. This year, only 27% intend to vote this way.

In addition, 16% of likely voters in British Columbia are currently not sure about the way in which they will cast their ballot in 2020.

“The concept of postal voting is particularly attractive for likely voters in Vancouver Island (32%) and the Fraser Valley (also 32%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A similar proportion of those who reside in Metro Vancouver (29%) would also currently prefer to vote by mail,”

Likely voters aged 55 and over are slightly less likely to cast their ballot on Election Day (25%) than those aged 18-to-34 (31%) and those aged 35-to-54 (30%).

Conversely, voting by mail is a more popular option for likely voters aged 35-to-54 (33%) and aged 55 and over (31%) than for those aged 18-to-34 (21%).

Across the province, 90% of likely voters are “very confident” or “moderately confident” that Elections BC —the non-partisan office of the British Columbia legislature responsible for conducting provincial and local elections—will be able to oversee the entire voting process in this year’s provincial ballot.

Sizeable proportions of likely voters also express confidence in Elections BC to ensure that there is no fraudulent activity with mailed ballots (82%) and to enforce social distancing at polling stations (74%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 21 to September 23, 2020, among 750 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

BC NDP Ahead of Rivals as Campaign Starts in British Columbia

John Horgan has a 17-point lead over Andrew Wilkinson when voters are asked who would make the Best Premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 24, 2020] – As British Columbia prepares for a unique electoral campaign in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, the governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in first place, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters in British Columbia would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency in the election scheduled for October 24. The BC NDP has gained three points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in May.

The BC Liberals are in second place with 37% (+4), followed by the BC Green Party with 13% (-3) and the BC Conservative Party with 4% (-5). 

The BC NDP holds a 12-point lead among decided female voters (47% to 35%). The race is significantly closer among decided male voters (41% for the BC NDP and 39% for the BC Liberals).

The BC Liberals are six-points ahead of the BC NDP in Southern BC (43% to 37%). 

The BC Green Party has its best numbers among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (22%, with the BC NDP at 38%) and in Vancouver Island (22%, with the BC NDP at 50%).

Two thirds of British Columbians (67%, -6) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan is handling his duties, while one-in-four (25%, +7) disapprove.

Since May, the approval rating for BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson dropped by nine points to 39%. Recently selected BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau holds similar numbers (37%), while the rating is significantly lower for BC Conservative Party leader Trevor Bolin (23%, -12).

When likely voters are asked who would make the Best Premier of British Columbia, more than two-in-five (44%) select Horgan, while 27% choose Wilkinson. Furstenau and Bolin are in single digits (7% and 2% respectively) and 21% are undecided.

More than one-in-four likely voters (26%, -2) think health care is the most important issue facing the province. Housing, poverty and homelessness is a close second at 24% (+7), followed by the economy and jobs (21%, =), COVID-19 (11%, -10), crime and public safety (8%, +6) and the environment (7%, +3).

“At the start of the provincial campaign, the most pressing concerns of voters in British Columbia vary greatly depending on age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Housing, poverty and homelessness is especially important for those aged 18-to-34 (29%), while the economy and jobs is top of mind for those aged 35-to-54 (26%) and health care is paramount for those aged 55 and over (29%).”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 21 to September 23, 2020, among 750 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Americans Reject Lifting Term Limits for Presidents

Likely voters in the United States are more supportive of reforms that would reduce the tenures of Members of Congress.

Vancouver, BC [September 23, 2020] – The notion of allowing the President of the United States to serve more than two terms in office is not attractive to a large proportion of American likely voters, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, only 6% of respondents are willing to lift term litis to allow American presidents to serve as many four-year terms as they want.

While one-in-four likely voters (26%) would prefer to limit the head of state to a single four-year term, almost two thirds (65%) would keep the current regulations that allow presidents to serve for two four-year terms,

“Support for completely abolishing term limits at the White House has dropped from 12% in a survey conducted in May 2013, four months after Barack Obama was sworn in for his final term, to 6% this year,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A majority of likely voters in all regions believe the current guidelines should remain in place.”

Just over a third of likely voters (35%) would limit U.S. Senators to one six-year term, while a similar proportion (34%) would prefer to limit members of the upper house to two six-year terms.

While 9% of likely voters would endorse an 18-year tenure for U.S. Senators (three six-year terms), 16% would keep the current regulations that allow members of the upper house to serve as many terms as they want.

Half of likely voters in the United States (50%) are willing to limit members of the House of Representatives to six-year tenures (three two-year terms), while about one-in-five (21%) would prefer to allow members of the lower house to serve for up to 12 years.

Just under one-in-five likely voters (18%) would continue to allow members of the House of Representatives to serve as many terms as they want.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 4 to September 6, 2020, among 1,200 American adults.  The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Biden Keeps National Lead Over Trump in United States Race

The Democratic nominee is regarded as the best person to handle health care, the environment and race relations.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2020] – Democratic Party presidential nominee Joe Biden remains ahead of Republican Party incumbent Donald Trump in the United States presidential race, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 53% of decided voters (unchanged since a Research Co. poll conducted in August) will vote for Biden in the election, while 44% (+2) would cast a ballot for Trump.

Support remains low at the national level for Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen (1%), Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins (also 1%) and other candidates (also 1%).

Among decided voters, Trump gets his best numbers with men (55%) and Americans aged 35-to-54 (54%). Biden leads with women (63%), Americans aged 18-to-34 (57%) and Americans aged 55 and over (61%).

Among White decided voters, Trump is ahead of Biden (51% to 47%). Majorities of decided voters of African American descent (83%) and Hispanic and Latino origin (70%) would support the Democratic nominee.

“Just 7% of likely voters in the United States have not chosen a candidate to support on Election Day,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 4% of decided voters say they may change their mind and support another candidate in the election.”

When asked about their motivation for supporting each of the two major party nominees, almost half of Trump voters (46%) say the most important factor is the candidate’s ideas and policies, followed by his party (30%). 

More than a third of Biden voters (36%) say the candidate’s ideas and policies are paramount, followed by disgust with other candidates (18%) and a desire for change (also 18%).

When likely voters are asked which one of the two main candidates is better suited to handle specific issues, Biden remains well ahead on nine issues: health care (52%), the environment (51%), race relations (also 51%), education (50%), COVID-19 (48%), government accountability (47%), foreign policy (46%), managing the deficit (44%) and energy and oil (43%).

In August, the two contenders, were practically tied on five issues. This month, the Democratic nominee has gained points on three: immigration (Biden 46%, Trump 39%), crime (Biden 44%, Trump 35%) and national defense (Biden 44%, Trump 41%). The numbers are tighter on job creation (Biden 44%, Trump 41%) and the economy (Biden 45%, Trump 42%).

By a 2-to-1 margin, Americans continue to reject the notion of postponing the U.S. presidential election to a later date because of the COVID-19 pandemic. While 29% of likely voters support this course of action, 65% disagree with it.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 4 to September 6, 2020, among 1,114 likely voters in the United States and 1,036 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.9 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.0 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: AgnosticPreachersKid 

For more information on this poll, please contact:Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Canadians Sour on Donald Trump, Lukewarm on Joe Biden

Respondents are divided on whether Canadian politicians should “speak their mind” as the American campaign continues.

Vancouver, BC [August 14, 2020] – Few Canadians believe the tenure of United States President Donald Trump has been beneficial to Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 73% of Canadians think that Trump’s term at the White House has been “bad” or “very bad” for Canada, while just 17% deem it “very good” or “good.”

Two thirds of Canadians aged 18-to-34 (67%) regard Trump’s presidency as “bad” for Canada, along with 74% of those aged 35-to-54 and 80% of those aged 55 and over.

Four-in-five Canadians who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Liberal Party in the 2019 federal election (80% and 79% respectively) believe that Trump’s tenure has been detrimental to Canada.

While 28% of Conservative Party voters in 2019 think Trump’s presidency has been good for Canada, 63% hold the opposite view.

“The animosity from Canadians towards Donald Trump has risen dramatically over the past two years,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In June 2019, only 15% of Canadians felt Trump had been very bad for Canada. In January 2020, the proportion increased to 29%. This month, it reached 47%.”

When asked to consider Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden as President of the United States, just over two-in-five Canadians (44%) say he would be “very good” or “good” for Canada, while 23% consider him “bad” or “very bad.”

One third of Canadians (33%) are undecided when pondering Biden—a proportion that rises to 41% among women, 39% among Canadians aged 35-to-54 and 51% among Albertans.

A Biden presidency is regarded favourably by 57% of Liberal Party voters and 51% of NDP voters. Significantly fewer Conservative voters (29%) hold the same view.

Canadians are split when asked whether elected officials should become involved in the U.S. election. While 46% would prefer for Canadian politicians to stay neutral and avoid public statements during the American campaign, 43% think they should speak their mind if they are concerned about the American presidential election.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from August 7 to August 9, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Americans Reject Delaying the 2020 Presidential Election

Among decided voters, Democratic candidate Joe Biden keeps a sizeable advantage over incumbent Donald Trump. 

Vancouver, BC [August 7, 2020] – Most likely voters in the United States reject the notion of delaying the presidential election that is scheduled for November, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, two thirds of respondents (68%) think the election should not be postponed to a later date because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Majorities of likely voters who identify as Democrats (75%), Independents (67%) and Republicans (59%) believe this year’s presidential ballot should go on as planned.

More than half of decided voters (53%) would support prospective Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the November election, while 42% would vote for Republican incumbent Donald Trump.

Support is decidedly lower for Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen (2%), Green nominee Howie Hawkins (1%) and other candidates (also 1%).

These results are largely unchanged at the national level since the July Research Co. survey that also placed Biden ahead by double-digits among decided voters.

The bulk of support for Biden comes from women (59%), decided voters aged 18-to-34 (54%) and African Americans (71%). The race is closer among men, where Biden is slightly ahead of Trump (47% to 45%). Among White voters, Trump is practically tied with Biden (48% to 47%).

More than nine-in-ten decided voters (92%) say they are certain that they will vote for their chosen candidate in the election. This includes 94% of those who intend to support Trump and 91% of those who plan to vote for Biden.

There are some sizeable differences when supporters of the two main contenders are asked about the factors for their choice.

About a third of decided voters who support Trump (34%) say their main motivator is the candidate’s ideas and policies, while fewer point to disgust with other candidates (23%) and Trump’s political party (22%).

Biden voters are primarily motivated by disgust with other candidates (30%), and to a lesser extent by the candidate’s ideas and policies (23%) and his political party (21%).

When asked which one of the two main candidates is better suited to handle specific issues, Biden holds the upper hand on the environment (50%), health care (49%), race relations (48%), education (47%), COVID-19 (46%), government accountability (45%), foreign policy (43%), energy and oil (41%) and managing the deficit (40%)

The two contenders are tied or virtually even on five issues: crime (Trump 39%, Biden 39%), the economy (Trump 43%, Biden 41%), job creation (Trump 42%, Biden 41%), immigration (Biden 42%, Trump 40%) and national defense (Trump 41%, Biden 41%).

“In our June survey, Trump was ahead of Biden on job creation, the economy and national defense,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now the numbers on these issues have tightened considerably, while Biden has also gained ground on energy and oil.”

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on August 3 and August 4, 2020, among 1,018 likely voters in the United States and 946 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our datasets here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Biden Has Double-Digit Lead in American Presidential Race

Support for the prospective Democratic nominee has grown among women and voters aged 18-to-34.

Vancouver, BC [July 8, 2020] – Public backing for prospective Democratic Party presidential nominee Joe Biden increased this month in the United States, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 53% of American decided voters (+2 since a similar survey conducted in June) say they would vote for Biden in this year’s presidential election, while 43% (-3) would cast a ballot for Republican incumbent Donald Trump.

Biden holds a large advantage among female decided voters (57% to 41%), while the race is closer among male decided voters (49% for Biden, 47% for Trump).

The results of this survey are very different for the incumbent president from what the race looked like in July 2012. At the time, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney were tied at 47% in the popular vote, with Obama leading by 12-points among women and Romney holding the sae advantage among men.

This month, Trump is virtually tied with Biden among decided voters aged 55 and over (50% to 49%), while the prospective Democratic nominee is ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (61% to 33%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (53% to 41%).

Just over half of White Americans (51%) say they would vote for Trump in this year’s election. The Republican incumbent has a significantly lower level of support among Hispanic and Latino Americans (28%) and African Americans (9%).

Trump’s approval rating stands at 40% this month, and at 46% among White Americans.

Respondents to this survey were also provided with a list of 18 words to describe Biden and asked to select up to six of them.

About three-in-ten Americans chose the words “intelligent” (32%), “compassionate” (also 32%), “down to earth” (30%), “out of touch” (28%), “weak” (also 28%) and “open” (27%).

In a similar survey conducted in July 2012, Democratic incumbent Barack Obama was regarded as “intelligent” by 50% of Americans, and as “open” by 21%.

The top words used by Independent voters to describe Biden are “weak” (34%) and “out of touch” (33%). In July 2012, only 22% of Independents described both Obama as “weak”, but 32% regarded him as “out of touch.” 

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on July 1 and July 2, 2020, among 1,200 American adults, including 1,049 likely voters and 965 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points for the entire sample, +/- 3.0 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.1 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Approval Rating for Trump Falls to 40% in the United States

More than half of Americans (57%) use the word “arrogant” to describe the incumbent president.

Vancouver, BC [July 6, 2020] – Fewer Americans are satisfied with the way Donald Trump is handling his duties, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 40% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, down six points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June.

The disapproval rating for Trump stands at 56% this month, climbing to 59% among women and 63% among residents of the Northeast.

Only one-in-five African Americans (21%) approve of Trump’s performance. The numbers for the incumbent president are better among Hispanic and Latino respondents (32%) and White respondents (46%).

Trump’s rating dropped to 13% among Democrats (-6). While almost four-in-five Republicans (79%, -4) approve of the president’s performance, only 31% of Independents (-9) concur.

Respondents to this survey were also provided with a list of 18 words to describe Trump and asked to select up to six of them.

Almost three-in-five Americans (57%) chose the word “arrogant” to describe Trump. More than a third of respondents also picked “dishonest” (40%), “uncaring” (39%), “foolish” (also 39%), “strong” (36%) and “out of touch” (34%).

In a similar survey conducted in July 2012, Republican Party presidential candidate Mitt Romney was also regarded as “out of touch” by 34% of Americans, but had his highest score across the country on being “intelligent” (46%).

The top words chosen by Republican Party supporters to describe Trump are “strong” (63%), “intelligent” (55%), “efficient” (43%) and “honest” (40%).

Practically two thirds of Independent voters (65%) believe Trump is “arrogant”—along with 70% of Democrats and 38% of Republicans.

In July 2012, only 32% of Independents described both Romney and incumbent U.S. President Barack Obama as “arrogant.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on July 1 and July 2, 2020, among 1,200 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Americans Prefer Biden Over Trump on Seven Policy Issues

A third of Americans consider Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar as “good choices” for Vice President.

Vancouver, BC [June 3, 2020] – Prospective Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden remains ahead of incumbent Donald Trump of the Republican Party with five months to go before the United States presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 51% of decided voters in the United States (+1 since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in April) would support Biden, while 46% (+2) would vote for Trump. Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen garners the backing of 2% of decided voters.

In 2016, Trump received 46% of the popular vote, two points behind Hillary Clinton (48%). Trump secured 306 votes in the Electoral College to Clinton’s 232.

Trump currently holds an 11-point lead over Biden among White decided voters (54% to 43%). Sizeable proportions of African American (83%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (67%) are planning to vote for Biden.

“Compared to what we reported on in April, there is significant movement among Independent voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “At this stage of the campaign, 15% of these voters are undecided, and among those who choose a candidate, Biden is nearly tied with Trump (47% to 45%).”

Most viewers of CNN and MSNBC / CNBC would vote for Biden (74% and 78% respectively), while more than seven-in-ten Fox News watchers (72%) would cast a ballot for Trump.

Biden is regarded by a plurality of Americans as the presidential candidate best suited to deal with seven policy issues:

  • The environment (46%).
  • Health care (45%).
  • Race relations (44%).
  • Education (also 44%).
  • Foreign policy (42%).
  • Government accountability (40%).
  • COVID-19 (also 40%).

 

Trump is ahead on three issues:

 

 

  • Job creation (43%).
  • The economy (also 43%).
  • National defense (41%).

 

The two contenders are virtually tied on four other issues:

 

  • Crime (Biden 38%, Trump 37%).
  • Managing the deficit (both at 36%).
  • Energy and oil (Biden 38%, Trump 37%).
  • Immigration (Biden 40%, Trump 39%).

 

When Americans are asked about nine characteristics that people may find in politicians, Biden has a higher score than Trump on eight items:

 

  • Being able to unite America and not divide it (47% to 30%).
  • Being in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (47% to 35%).
  • Generally agreeing with respondents on issues they care about (45% to 40%).
  • Being able to bring the kind of change America needs (45% to 42%).
  • Being able to deal with labour unions effectively in the event of a dispute (45% to 41%).
  • Sharing the values of respondents (44% to 34%).
  • Being a good speaker and communicator (42% to 33%).
  • Being honest and trustworthy (42% to 32%).

 

Trump holds the upper hand on only one trait:

 

  • Being a good economic manager (47%, with Biden at 39%).

 

Biden has said he intends to choose a woman as his running mate. Across the United States, 40% of respondents think Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren would be a “good choice” for Vice President, followed by California Senator Kamala Harris at 39%, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar at 35%, former Georgia Congresswoman Stacey Abrams at 29% and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand at 26%.

More than three-in-five Democrats think Warren (64%) and Harris (62%) would be good choices for the party’s ticket in 2020, while almost half feel the same way about Klobuchar (48%) and Abrams (46%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on June 1 and June 2, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our datasets here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

[c] 778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Perceptions of Trudeau Improve Across Canadian Provinces

The proportion of Albertans who hold separatist feelings has fallen markedly since December 2019.

Vancouver, BC [June 2, 2020] – The views of Canadians on the way the federal government can benefit their province have shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of Canadians believe that their province would be “better off” with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa, while 47% disagree.

A similar Research Co. survey conducted in December 2019 found that 50% of Canadians believed that their province would be “better off” with a different person heading the federal government.

The proportion of Canadians who wish for a person other than Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister is currently highest in Alberta (54%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%), and drops in British Columbia (37%), Quebec (also 37%), Ontario (35%) and Atlantic Canada (31%).

Almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) believe their province would be better off with a different premier in charge, down 14 points nationally since December 2019.

“In three of the four most populous provinces of Canada, the premiers have connected with residents in a meaningful way and saw their standing improve over the past six months,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Alberta, there was little movement for the premier and a slight recovery for the prime minister.”

The proportion of Ontarians who think the province would be better off with a premier other than Doug Ford fell from 60% in December 2019 to 38% in May 2020. There is also an improvement for François Legault in Quebec (from 44% to 29%) and for John Horgan in British Columbia (from 42% to 36%).

In Alberta, 56% of residents would rather have a premier other than Jason Kenney, down one point since December 2019. In this province, negative views of Justin Trudeau dropped by 11 points over the same span.

Across the country, 24% of Canadians (-1) think their province would be better off as its own country. Since December 2019, separatist feelings have fallen by four points in Quebec (36%) and by 12 points in Alberta (28%).

Only 17% of Canadians (+1) believe their province would be better off joining the United States, including 20% of Quebecers, 19% of Albertans and 18% of British Columbians.

Photo Credit: WinterE229 

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on May 26 and May 27, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

BC NDP Keeps Upper Hand in British Columbia’s Political Scene

The approval ratings for John Horgan and Andrew Wilkinson increased since last year, along with concerns about health care.

Vancouver, BC [May 28, 2020] – The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is ahead of all other contenders in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 41% of decided voters in British Columbia would back the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 33% would cast a ballot for the BC Liberals.

Support for the BC New Democrats increased by two points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in May 2019, while backing for the BC Liberals increased by three points.

The BC Green Party is currently in third place with 16% (-5), followed by the BC Conservative Party with 9% (unchanged).

The New Democrats are the most popular choice among female decided voters in the province (45%), as well as among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (46%) and 35-to-54 (41%).

The BC NDP and the BC Liberals are practically tied in the preference of male decided voters (38% and 36% respectively). A similar scenario is observed with decided voters aged 55 and over (38% for the BC Liberals, 37% for the BC NDP).

“Right now, 12% of BC Liberal voters in 2017 are looking at the BC Conservatives as an option they could back in a provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC Green Party could see 14% of their 2017 voters walk away and support the BC NDP.”

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan stands at 73% this month, up 22 points since May 2019.

Almost half of British Columbians (48%, +14) approve of BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson. The numbers are similar for interim BC Green Party leader Adam Olsen (49%), and lower for BC Conservative Party leader Trevor Bolin (35%, +15).

Almost three-in-ten British Columbians (28%) believe health care is the most important issue facing the province, up 17 points in a year.

The economy and jobs and COVID-19 are tied for second place with 21% each, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty with 17%, the environment with 4%, education with 3%, crime and public safety with 2%, accountability also at 2%, and energy and pipelines with 1%.

Health care is the most pressing concern for voters aged 55 and over (38%), while COVID-19 is the top issue for those aged 35-to-54 (36%) and housing, homelessness and poverty takes precedence among those aged 18-to-34 (29%).

Photo Credit: Ryan Bushby

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 23 to May 25, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 
For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Canadians Hold Mixed Feelings About Trudeau’s Performance

The Liberal Party holds a nine-point advantage over the Conservative Party across the country.

Vancouver, BC [May 8, 2020] – Canadians are divided in their assessment of the first four and a half years of Justin Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 48% of Canadians think Trudeau has performed “about the same” as they expected. Similar proportions of Canadians believe Trudeau has been “better” than they envisioned (24%) or “worse” than they anticipated (25%).

“More than a third of Canadians aged 55 and over (36%) believe Trudeau has been worse than they expected,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Significantly fewer Canadians aged 35-to-54 (21%) and 18-to-34 (18%) feel the same way.”

Two-in-five Canadians (41%) believe Trudeau has accomplished “little” as head of government. Comparable quantities of Canadians believe he has achieved “much” (24%) or that it is “too early” to judge his accomplishments (also 24%) since he took office in November 2015.

While 40% of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in last year’s federal election believe Trudeau as accomplished “much” since becoming prime minister, the proportion falls to 27% among those who cast ballots for New Democratic Party (NDP) candidates and to just 6% among those who supported the Conservative Party.

Respondents to this survey were also asked to evaluate if 10 different issues are better, the same, or worse now than six years ago, when Stephen Harper served as Canada’s prime minister.

At least one-in-five Canadians believe that four issues are better now: Canada’s reputation in the world (30%), Canada’s role in global affairs (25%), the environment (21%) and ethics and accountability (20%).

Fewer Canadians believe there has been an improvement on public safety (19%), health care (also 19%), national unity (18%), the Canadian economy (16%), taxation (13%) and national defence (11%).

If a federal election were held today, the governing Liberals would garner the backing of 39% of decided voters. The Conservatives are in second place with 30%, followed by the New Democrats with 17%, the Green Party with 7%, the Bloc Québécois with 5%, and the People’s Party with 1%.

The Liberals are particularly popular in Ontario (44%), Quebec (40%) and British Columbia (39%). The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (45%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (38%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 1 to May 3, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 
For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Jeangagnon

Young Voters Give Biden National Lead in U.S. Presidential Race

The presumptive Democratic nominee is ahead of the incumbent president by double digits in the West and Midwest.

Vancouver, BC [April 8, 2020] – Joe Biden holds the upper hand over Donald Trump in the United States presidential race, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 50% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 44% would support the Republican incumbent and 6% would back another candidate.  

In 2016, Trump garnered 46% of the popular vote, two points behind Hillary Clinton (48%). Trump secured 306 votes in the Electoral College to Clinton’s 232.  

“In April 2012, Barack Obama was seeking re-election and held a six-point lead over his presumptive challenger, Mitt Romney, on the popular vote” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “At the same point in 2020, it is the incumbent president who is six points behind.”  

One-in-ten American voters (10%) are currently undecided—a proportion that grows to 14% among those aged 18-to-34.   At this stage in the race, there is no sizeable gender gap among decided voters: Biden holds similar leads among men (49% to 44%) and women (51% to 44%).  

A majority of American decided voters aged 18-to-34 (58%) support Biden, while only 36% would cast a ballot for Trump. Biden has a seven-point lead over Trump among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (50% to 43%), but trails Trump by three points among decided voters aged 55 and over (50% for Trump, 47% for Biden).  

Biden is ahead of Trump in the West (53% to 42%) and Midwest (53% to 41%). The race is closer in the Northeast (50% for Biden, 46% for Trump) and in the South (48% for Trump, 45% for Biden).  

Trump is supported by 95% of decided voters who describe themselves as Republicans. Biden’s rate is lower among Democratic decided voters (83%). A majority of Independent decided voters (52%) prefer Biden, with Trump at 39% and 9% backing another candidate.  

More than three-in-five African American (74%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (64%) support Biden. Trump holds a nine-point lead among White decided voters (52% to 43%).  

Trump is holding on to 94% of decided voters who supported him in the 2016 election, while Biden garners the backing of 84% of those who supported Hillary Clinton.  

Decided voters who get their news from CNN and MSNBC / CNBC support Biden (74% each), while seven-in-ten decided voters who watch Fox News (70%) would cast a ballot for Trump.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on April 3, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
 
Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.
 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Americans Fear Foreign Interference in 2020 Election

The approval rating for Donald Trump fell slightly since February (43%), but remains high among Republican voters.

Vancouver, BC [April 6, 2020] – The prospect of foreign meddling in this year’s United States presidential ballot is causing distress for a sizeable proportion of Americans, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 50% of Americans say they have “not much confidence” or “no confidence at all” that foreign countries will not interfere in the election.  

“The possibility of foreign entities intruding in the democratic process is a bigger concern among Democrats (64%) and Independents (56%) in the United States,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, only 23% of Republicans share the same level of wariness.”  

Two-in-five Americans (40%) express little confidence that the systems that are currently in place to cast their ballot (such as electronic voting machines) will not be tampered with.  

More than a third of Americans are not particularly confident that their vote will be accurately counted (35%) and that the systems that are currently in place to cast their ballot (such as electronic voting machines) will work properly (34%).  

While a third of White Americans (33%) express “not much confidence” or “no confidence at all” in their vote being accurately tallied (33%), the proportion rises to 42% among Hispanic and Latino voters and 44% among African Americans.  

Americans who usually watch television news on MSNBC and CNBC are more likely to express little or no confidence in electronic voting machines working properly (45%) than those who watch Fox News (30%) or CNN (29%).  

With seven months to go before the next presidential election, 43% of Americans approve of Donald Trump’s performance, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted after his State of the Union address in February.  

Trump’s approval rating is higher among men (49%) and Americans aged 55 and over (46%), and lower among women (38%) and Americans aged 18-to-34 (35%).  

The incumbent president holds healthier numbers among Republican voters (85%) and Americans who cast a ballot for him in 2016 (86%). Trump’s disapproval rating is highest among Democrats (80%) and those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election (87%).  

White Americans are almost evenly split in their assessment of Trump (47% approve, 49% disapprove). Majorities of African Americans (71%) and Hispanics (64%) are dissatisfied with the president’s performance.  

Two thirds of Americans who usually watch Fox News (67%) approve of the way Trump has handled his job. Fewer than three-in-ten viewers of CNN (28%) and MSNBC/CNBC (25%) concur.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on April 3, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our datasets here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Many Canadians Continue to Wish for an Elected Senate

More than a third of Canadians think the changes implemented by the prime minister have made the upper house better.  

Vancouver, BC [March 23, 2020] – More than two-in-five Canadians would welcome the possibility of playing a direct role in the selection of the upper house’s members, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 45% of Canadians think the country needs a Senate, but citizens should be allowed to take part in the process to choose senators.  

The proportion of Canadians who want to be allowed to participate in selecting the members of the upper house is highest in British Columbia (52%) and Alberta (51%).  

Just over a quarter of Canadians (27%) believe Canada does not need a Senate and would prefer for all legislation to be reviewed and authorized by the House of Commons.  

Only 9% of respondents say Canada needs a Senate and want the current guidelines that call for appointed senators to remain unchanged.  

When given a choice, two-in-five Canadians (40%) say they would prefer to reform the Senate to allow for the direct election of members of the upper house.  

“Support for a reform process that ultimately allows Canadians to cast ballots for Senate candidates grows with age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 33% of Canadians aged 18-to-34 are fond of this idea, the proportion jumps to 39% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 47% among those aged 55 and over.”  

Conversely, three-in-ten Canadians (31%) would rather have a selection committee that would appoint non-partisan Senators, while only 10% would let the prime minister name the new members of the upper house.  

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has only named senators that were recommended by an arm’s-length advisory body and not directly appointed by him.  

More than a third of Canadians (37%) think the changes implemented by Trudeau have made the Senate of Canada “better” than before, while 30% see no change and 16% believe the state of affairs is “worse” now.  

More than half of Canadians (54%) expect Canadians to one day “definitely” or “probably” be able to elect their senators, while 29% do not think this scenario will materialize.

Photo Credit: Xiaphias 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from February 22 to February 25, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full dataset here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca