Fewer Than One-in-Four Albertans Consent to Full Independence

Support rises slightly if other Canadian provinces join in, but majorities reject all scenarios.

Vancouver, BC [July 7, 2023] – Compared to early 2021, fewer Albertans are openly welcoming the concept of outright sovereignty, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, only 22% of Albertans agree with the idea of Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada, down three points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in February 2021.

Residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area are more likely to support the notion of a sovereign Alberta (26%) than their counterparts in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (18%) and all other regions of the province (23%).

While only 9% of Albertans who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in this year’s provincial election favour the idea of Alberta’s independence, the proportion rises to 29% among those who cast ballots for the governing United Conservative Party (UCP).

The survey presented respondents with three other scenarios related to sovereignty.

Just under one-in-four Albertans (23%, -3) would consent to Alberta and Saskatchewan becoming a country independent from Canada, including 32% of those who do not reside in either of the two main metropolitan areas.

The creation of a nation encompassing Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba garners the backing of 25% of Albertans, while a sovereign country including Canada’s four western provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia—is supported by 30% of Albertans.

“A third of Albertans aged 35-to-54 (33%) endorse the concept of a nation that featured Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia as its components,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are slightly lower among those aged 18-to-34 (30%) and aged 55 and over (28%).”

More than three-in-five Albertans reject each of the four proposals for sovereignty, whether the plan entails only Alberta (71%) or includes Saskatchewan (69%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (67%) or Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia (61%).

Fewer than one-in-five Albertans (19%, +1) would agree with Alberta joining the United States—a feeling that is highest among those aged 18-to-34 (31%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 10 to June 12, 2023, among 800 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.


[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Kelly Tarala