Support for UCP Consolidates in Final Stages of Alberta Campaign

UCP leader Danielle Smith now has a small lead over the NDP’s Rachel Notley in the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [May 27, 2023] – The governing United Conservative Party (UCP) is ahead of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, half of decided voters in Alberta (50%) would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their constituency in this Monday’s election, while 46% would support the NDP.

“Since our previous survey conducted in mid-May, voter support for the UCP has increased by three points across Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, the NDP’s province-wide numbers are down by the same margin.”

Four per cent of decided voters are backing other parties, including the Green Party (1%, =) and the Solidarity Movement (also 1%, =).

The NDP was ahead of the UCP in Edmonton by 16 points earlier this month, but currently has a significantly smaller advantage (55% to 42%). The UCP holds the upper hand in Calgary (50% to 47%) and has expanded its advantage in the remaining regions of the province (68% to 28%).

Only 15% of decided voters say they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate on Monday’s election. NDP voters are more certain of their choice (95%) than UCP supporters (86%).

Over the past 10 days, the approval rating for Premier and UCP leader Danielle Smith increased from 39% to 47% across Alberta. Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley experienced a more modest rise, from 50% to 53%.

Fewer than one-in-four likely voters in Alberta approve of the way Green leader Jordan Wilkie (22%, +7) and Solidarity leader Artur Pawlowski (18%, +7) have handled their duties

On the momentum question, just over one-in-four likely voters in Alberta (26%) have an improved opinion of Smith since the start of the campaign, while 38% say it is worse now. Notley’s score on this indicator is even (27% improved, 27% worsened).

Smith heads to Election Day with a two-point edge over Notley on being regarded as the best premier for the province (43% to 41%). In our previous survey, Notley was ahead of Smith by five points.

As was the case in the middle of the campaign, Albertans point to two issues as the most important challenges facing the province right now: health care (27%, -2) and the economy and jobs (also 27%, =).

Housing, poverty and homelessness is third on the list of concerns with 12% (+4), followed by crime and public safety (8%, =) and government accountability (7%, =).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 26 and May 27, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Alberta, including 571 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.1 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.