Support for Governing United Conservative Party Drops in Alberta

Just over one-in-four of the province’s residents approve of the performance of Jason Kenney as premier.  

Vancouver, BC [March 14, 2022] – The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a significant lead over the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.  

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would support the NDP candidate in their constituency if a provincial election were held today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.  

The governing UCP is a distant second with 30% (-10), followed by the Wildrose Independence Party with 8% (+6), the Alberta Party with 7% (-2), the Liberal Party with 5% (+3), the Green Party with 3% (+1) and the Independence Party with 1%.  

The NDP is ahead of the UCP by eight points among male decided voters (40% to 32%) and by 21 points among female decided voters (49% to 28%).  

The New Democrats hold significant advantages over the United Conservatives in Edmonton (50% to 25%) and Calgary (47% to 34%). In all other areas of the province, the UCP is barely ahead of the NDP (33% to 31%).  

“The UCP is evidently having difficulties maintaining the base together,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While the NDP is keeping 89% of its supporters in the 2019 provincial election, the UCP is only managing to hold on to 51% of their voters.”  

Only 26% of Albertans (-16) approve of the way Premier and UCP leader Jason Kenney is managing his duties, while 66% (+16) disapprove.  

Almost half of the province’s residents (49%, +4) are satisfied with the performance of Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley.  

The approval rating is lower for interim Liberal Party leader John Roggeveen (22%), Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie (20%, +4), Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita (18%), Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman (18%, +2) and Independence Party leader Vicky Bayford (13%).  

More than a third of Albertans (36%) believe Notley would make the best premier among seven party leaders. Kenney is second with 17%, with all other contenders in single digits.  

When Albertans are asked about the most important issue facing the province, similar proportions select health care (30%, +3) and the economy and jobs (29%, -14). Government accountability is third (13%, +6) followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (7%, +4) and COVID-19 (6%, =).  

Animosity towards the idea of implementing a provincial sales tax (PST) has grown in Alberta since December 2020. This month, more than seven-in-ten residents of the province (72%, +7) voice opposition to this idea—including 86% of UCP voters and 65% of NDP voters in 2019.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from March 11 to March 13, 2022, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e]