Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

Health care remains the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives are still in first place as voters in Manitoba prepare to participate in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 44% of decided voters (-2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late August) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains in second place with 31% (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 16% (+2) and the Green Party with 7% (-1).

The Progressive Conservatives hold their best numbers with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%) and men (50%). The New Democrats are ahead among voters aged 18-to-34 (33%).

While the race is tied in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (34% for each of the two main contending parties), the Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead in the rest of the province (55%, with the NDP at 28%).

“Practically four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (79%) say they will not change their mind before casting their ballot,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This proportion includes 84% of those who are planning to support the governing Progressive Conservatives.”

Three-in-ten Manitobans (30%, -4) believe incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister would make the best head of government for the province.

NDP and Official Opposition leader Wab Kinew is second with 19% (+2), followed by Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party with 16% (+6) and James Beddome of the Green Party with 8% (+4). More than one-in-four of the province’s residents (27%, -7) are undecided on this question.

Health care (38%, -10) remains the most important issue facing the province for Manitobans, followed by the economy and jobs (19%, +8), crime and public safety (10%, -4) and the environment (9%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 6 to September 9, 2019 among 536 Manitoba adults, including 483 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.5 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Support Mandatory Voting in Federal Elections

More than seven-in-ten residents think most federal politicians have to follow the party line and have little to no autonomy.

Vancouver, BC [August 30, 2019] – A majority of residents of British Columbia believe all eligible voters in the province should cast ballots in elections to the House of Commons, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians, 57% of residents think “voting should be mandatory in Canadian federal elections”, while 33% disagree and 7% are undecided.

“Public support for compulsory voting in British Columbia is lowest among residents aged 18-to-34 (49%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Members of Generation X (61%) and Baby Boomers (60%) are more likely to agree with this idea.”

Across the province, 72% of British Columbians believe “most federal politicians have to follow the party line and have little to no autonomy”, a proportion that rises to 84% among residents aged 55 and over.

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (58%) agree with the statement: “There is currently no federal political party that truly represents my views”.

Only two-in-five British Columbians (40%) believe “most federal politicians are trying to do the right thing.” While 49% of those aged 55 and over agree with this statement, only 41% of those aged 35-to-54 and 27% of those aged 18-to-34 concur. 

Fewer than one-in-four British Columbians (24%) believe most federal politicians actually care about what happens to “people like me”.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 7 to August 10, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians and Americans Praise Leaders for Job Creation

On this file, Conservative voters in Canada are more critical of Justin Trudeau than Democrats are of Donald Trump.

Vancouver, BC [August 9, 2019] – Most Canadians and Americans believe their current heads of government should be lauded for job creation, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 60% of Canadians think Prime Minister Justin Trudeau deserves “all of the credit” (12%) or “some of the credit” (48%) for the country’s low unemployment rate.

On a regional basis, Canadians who reside in Quebec (65%), British Columbia (63%) and Ontario (61%) are more likely to believe that Trudeau deserves “all” or “some” of the credit for Canada’s unemployment rate, followed by Atlantic Canada (56%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (55%) and Alberta (42%).

In the United States, 57% of Americans believe President Donald Trump deserves “all of the credit” (12%) or “some of the credit” (45%) for the country’s low unemployment rate.

In the United States, residents of the Midwest (63%) are more likely to believe that Trump deserves “all” or “some” of the credit for the country’s unemployment rate, followed by those in the Northeast (58%), the South (56%) and the West (55%).

“In Canada, only 37% of respondents who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2015 federal election are willing to praise Trudeau for the current employment situation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In the United States, the proportion of Democrats who feel the same way about Trump reaches 50%.”

The proportion of residents who believe the head of government deserves “none of the credit” for the low unemployment rate is significantly higher in the United States (26%) than in Canada (16%).

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from July 2 to July 5, 2019, among representative samples of 1,000 adults Canada and the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian and U.S. census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for each country.

Find our full data set for Canada here, full data set for the United States here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Tout Unique Views in Canadian Landscape

Two thirds feel they have more in common with the people of Seattle and Portland than with those in Toronto or Montreal.

Vancouver, BC [August 7, 2019] – Most residents of British Columbia believe they have a distinctive outlook when compared to other areas of Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, almost three-in-five British Columbians (59%) think their views “are different from the rest of the country”—including 89% of Green Party voters in the 2017 provincial election.

Two thirds of British Columbians (66%, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2018) think they have more in common with the people of Seattle and Portland than with those in Toronto or Montreal. 

Significant proportions of residents are very proud of the province they live in (86%, -1), believe they will stay in British Columbia for the rest of their lives (74%, -3), and disagree with the idea that British Columbia would be better off as its own country (74%, unchanged).

“There is a generational divide when British Columbians are asked if they will be lifelong residents of the province,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While 85% of those aged 55 and over say they will stay in British Columbia for the rest of their lives, the proportion drops to 74% among those aged 35-to-54 and 64% among those aged 18-to-34.”

About one-in-five respondents (19%) say they consider themselves “British Columbians first, and Canadians second”—a proportion that rises to 24% among residents of the Fraser Valley.

Conversely, two thirds of respondents (67%) say they are “Canadians first, and British Columbians second.”

Practically two-in-five British Columbians (44%) are undecided when asked who they think has been the best Premier of the province since August 1986. Only three leaders reached double digits: John Horgan (14%), Gordon Campbell (12%) and Christy Clark (11%).

When asked who they believe has been the worst recent premier, 27% of British Columbians select Clark, followed by Campbell (11%) and Horgan (10%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Albertans Evenly Divided on Attachment to the United States

Three-in-ten residents think Alberta would be “better off as its own country”, up five points since December 2018.

Vancouver, BC [August 7, 2019] – Residents of Alberta are split when asked if they have “more in common with Americans than with those in other parts of Canada”, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 43% of Albertans agree with this statement, while 43% disagree with it and 14% are undecided.

Almost half of respondents aged 18-to-34 (47%) and aged 55 and over (also 47%) think Albertans have more in common with Americans than with other Canadians. The proportion drops to 37% among respondents aged 35-to-54.

While a majority of those who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the last provincial election believe Albertans have more in common with Americans than with other Canadians (56%), only 29% of those who voted for the provincial New Democratic Party (NDP) in last April’s ballot concur. 

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%, +5 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2018) believe Alberta would be better off as its own country, while 62% (-7) disagree.

“The proportion of Albertans who appear to be flirting with separation has risen,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “It is important to note that the level of strong disagreement with this statement dropped from 58% in December 2018 to 44% now.” 

More than a quarter of respondents (27%, -4 since December 2018) say they consider themselves “Albertans first, and Canadians second”—a proportion that rises to 34% among those aged 55 and over, 34% for those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton and 37% among those who voted for the UCP in the last provincial election.

Conversely, three-in-five respondents (59%, -1) say they are “Canadians first, and Albertans second.”

A majority of Albertans (56%) think their views “are different from the rest of the country”—including 64% of men, 63% of those aged 55 and over and 72% of UCP voters.

More than two-in-five Albertans (44%) believe Ralph Klein has been the best Premier of Alberta since November 1985, followed by Rachel Notley with 17% and Don Getty with 6%.

When asked who they believe has been the worst recent premier, 26% of Albertans select Notley, followed by Alison Redford (25%) and Klein (11%).

Photo Credit: Zeitlupe 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2019, among 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca