Most Canadians Oblivious to Acts Proposed by Western Premiers

Half of residents (50%) agree with what Saskatchewan is trying to accomplish, while 39% feel the same way about Alberta’s actions.

Vancouver, BC [November 11, 2022] – Few Canadians are actively following stories related to the recent pronouncements issued by the premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of Canadians say they are paying close attention to the Alberta Sovereignty Act.

Just over three-in-ten Canadians (31%) are following stories related to the Saskatchewan First Act “very closely” or “moderately closely”

The Alberta Sovereignty Act proposed by Premier Danielle Smith seeks to allow the province to refuse to follow specific federal laws if they are deemed not to be in Alberta’s best interests.

The Saskatchewan First Act proposed by Premier Scott Moe seeks to confirm Saskatchewan’s autonomy and exclusive jurisdiction over its natural resources.

“Half of Conservative Party voters in the last Canadian federal election (50%) are keeping an eye on news related to the Alberta Sovereignty Act,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among Canadians who cast ballots for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (36%) or the Liberal Party (35%) in 2021.”

Just over half of Canadians (51%) are concerned about the Alberta Sovereignty Act, while 45% feel the same way about the Saskatchewan First Act.

Half of Canadians (50%) think the Government of Saskatchewan is right to confirm its autonomy and exclusive jurisdiction over its natural resources, while 27% disagree with this notion and 22% are undecided.

On a regional basis, residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (60%) and Alberta (57%) agree with the principle of the Saskatchewan First Act, along with 48% of those who live in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.

Only 34% of Canadians think the Government of Alberta is right to refuse to follow specific federal laws if they are deemed not to be in Alberta’s best interests, while 42% disagree with this assessment and 21% are not sure.

Just over half of Albertans (52%) agree with the ideals behind the Alberta Sovereignty Act. The numbers are lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (43%), British Columbia and Ontario (38% each), Atlantic Canada (34%) and Quebec (33 %).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 4 to November 6, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Florida and Ohio Are Red States in U.S. Midterm Election

Democratic incumbents in Illinois and New York head to Election Day with significant leads. 

Vancouver, BC [November 7, 2022] – The U.S. Senate contests in the states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are remarkably close on the eve of the midterm election in the United States, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in ten American states.

The surveys of Americans who have already participated in the democratic process or plan to do so tomorrow also show Republican candidates dominating the Senate and Governor’s races in Florida and Ohio, and their Democratic counterparts with healthy leads in California, Illinois and New York

Arizona

In 2020, Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Martha McSally in a U.S. Senate special election with 51,2% of the vote. In this month’s contest, Kelly holds a four-point lead over GOP challenger Blake Masters (51% to 47%), with Libertarian Marc Victor at 2%.

In the Grand Canyon State’s gubernatorial election, Republican Kari Lake has a two-point edge over Democrat Katie Hobbs (51% to 49%).

California

Voters in California will take part in two U.S. Senate elections: a special contest to fill a seat until January 2023 and a regular contest to choose a Senator for a six-year term. In each election, Democrat Alex Padilla holds a sizeable advantage over Republican Mark Meuser (63% to 37%).

Incumbent Gavin Newsom of the Democratic Party has a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Brian Dahle in the gubernatorial election (60% to 40%).

Practically seven-in-ten decided voters in the Golden State (69%) say they will vote “Yes” on Proposition 1 which seeks to amend the California Constitution to expressly include an individual’s fundamental right to reproductive freedom.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of the Republican Party has a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Val Demmings (54% to 44%).

Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis is also heavily favoured to win a new term in office in his contest against former governor Charlie Crist (56% to 42%).

Georgia

The U.S. Senate election in the Peach State may have to be decided in a run-off, with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver garnering the support of 1% of decided voters. Challenger Herschel Walker of the Republican Party and incumbent U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock of the Democratic Party are tied with 49% each.

In the gubernatorial election, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp has a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams (53% to 46%).

Illinois

Democrat Tammy Duckworth appears headed to a new six-year term in the U.S. Senate, with a sizeable advantage over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi (58% to 40%).

In the Prairie State’s gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat J. B. Pritzker is 20 points ahead of Republican rival Darren Bailey (59% to 39%).

Nevada

Democratic U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, first elected in 2016, is trailing GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by a single point (48% to 49%).

In the Silver State’s gubernatorial election, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak is also slightly behind Republican contender Joe Lombardo (47% to 49%).

New York

Voters in the Empire State give incumbent U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer of the Democratic Party a substantial lead over GOP challenger Joe Pinion (59% to 39%).

In the gubernatorial election, former Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul of the Democratic Party has a double-digit lead over Republican candidate Lee Zeldin (55% to 45%).

Ohio

In the Buckeye State’s election to the U.S. Senate, J.D. Vance holds an eight-point advantage over Democrat Tim Ryan (54% to 46%).

Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine has a larger lead over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley (61% to 39%).

Pennsylvania

In the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Pat Toomey, Democratic candidate John Fetterman is barely ahead of Republican contender Mehmet Oz (49% to 48%).

The contest for the governor’s office in the Keystone State is not as tight. Democrat Josh Shapiro has a 12-point lead over Republican Doug Mastriano (55% to 43%).

Wisconsin

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson, first elected in 2010, has a six-point lead over Democratic rival Mandela Barnes in the Badger State (53% to 47%).

In the race for governor, incumbent Tony Evers of the Democratic Party and challenger Tim Michels of the Republican Party are tied with the support of 50% of decided voters each.

Methodology:
Results are based on online surveys conducted from November 4 to November 6, 2022, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in ten American states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state, 19 times out of 20.
 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Conservatives Have Four-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

Canadians are evenly split when assessing the accomplishments of the Liberals and the NDP following their March 2022 agreement.

Vancouver, BC [October 31, 2022] – The opposition Conservative Party is ahead in Canada’s federal political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 35% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The governing Liberal Party is in second place with 31%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19%, the Bloc Québécois with 8%, the Green Party with 4% and the People’s Party with 2%.

The Conservatives hold sizeable leads in their traditional strongholds of Alberta (51%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%) and are also first in Ontario (41%) and British Columbia (37%). The Liberals are leading in Quebec (38%, with the Bloc at 32%) and Atlantic Canada (38%).

“Among Canadian decided voters aged 55 and over, the Conservatives have a double-digit lead over the Liberals (41% to 30%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The race is much closer among younger voters.”

More than two-in-five Canadians (44%) approve of the performance of Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau while just over half (51%) disapprove.

The approval rating is higher this month for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (46%, -5 since the last Research Co. survey conducted before the 2021 federal election).

More than a third of Canadians (37%) approve of the way Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has handled his duties, while 44% disagree and 19% are undecided.

The numbers are lower for Green interim leader Amita Kuttner (22%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (20%, and 38% in Quebec) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (18%).

Practically three-in-ten Canadians (29%, +7 since September 2021) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing Canada, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (21%, +6), health care (also 21%, -6), the environment (7%, -3), accountability and leadership (5%, -1), immigration (4%, +1) and crime and public safety (also 4%, +1).

The economy and jobs is regarded as the most pressing federal concern for residents of Alberta (38%), Quebec (33%), Ontario (30%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 30%).

Health care is the prevalent issue for Atlantic Canadians (35%), while housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter in British Columbia (33%).

When asked which one of the six main party leaders would make the best prime minister of Canada, Trudeau holds a six-point advantage over Poilievre (30% to 24%), followed by Singh (17%), Blanchet (4%), Bernier (2%) and Kuttner (1%).

Residents of two provinces are almost evenly divided on whether Trudeau or Poilievre would be the best head of government for Canada right now. In Ontario, Poilievre is a point ahead of Trudeau (30% to 29%). In British Columbia, the current prime minister edges the opposition leader by the same margin (27% to 26%).

More than two-in-five Canadians (43%) say they are comfortable with Trudeau being charge of Canada’s economy, a proportion that rises to 45% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 52% in Quebec.

Just under two-in-five Canadians (39%) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being charge of Canada’s economy, including 48% of Albertans and 43% of Ontarians.

There is no clear consensus on what the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP has meant to Canada so far. Across the country, 44% are satisfied with the accomplishments of this deal, while the same proportion (44%) are dissatisfied.

Liberal voters in the 2021 federal election are significantly more likely to hold positive views on the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement (80%) than those who voted for the New Democrats (51%) or the Conservatives (13%).

The country is also divided on whether a federal election should be called in the next six months now that the Conservatives have a full time leader (Agree 44%, Disagree 41%).

Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in the last federal election are more convinced about the need to hold a fresh ballot now (73%) than their counterparts who supported the NDP (44%) or the Liberals (30%) in 2021.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 24 to October 26, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Ponder Future Effect of BC NDP Leadership Race

Women are more likely to support the BC New Democrats if David Eby replaces John Horgan as leader.

Vancouver, BC [October 18, 2022] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of the opposition BC Liberals in British Columbia’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency if a provincial ballot were held today, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February.

The BC Liberals are in second place with 35% (-3), followed by the BC Green Party with 15% (+2) and the BC Conservative Party with 4% (+2).

More than half of British Columbians (57%, -12) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan has handled his duties. The numbers are lower for both BC Liberals leader Kevin Falcon (36%, -2) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -1).

The survey also asked about the two prospective candidates seeking to replace Horgan at the helm of the BC NDP. Just over two-in-five British Columbians (42%) approve of David Eby, while three-in-ten (30%) feel the same way about Anjali Appadurai.

Across British Columbia, a third of residents (33%) say it makes no difference to them who becomes the next leader of the BC NDP, while one-in-five (25%) are undecided. Eby is ahead of Appadurai among all residents of the province (30% to 12%) and among those who voted for the BC New Democrats in the 2020 provincial election (42% to 11%).

Respondents to this poll were asked about four different scenarios that could materialize upon the conclusion of the BC NDP leadership race.

In a match-up with Eby as leader, 43% of decided voters would support the BC NDP and 34% would back the BC Liberals. The race becomes much closer if Appadurai supplants Horgan: 38% for the BC NDP and 36% for the BC Liberals.

“The BC NDP would have an easier time connecting with female voters with David Eby as leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support for the governing party among women stands at 51% with him and at 44% under Appadurai.”

The results are also different if either of the losing contenders in the BC NDP leadership race decided to create their own political parties.

With Eby as leader, the BC NDP would keep the upper hand over the BC Liberals (40% to 34%), with lower support for the BC Greens (15%), the BC Conservatives (6%) and a new political party led by Appadurai (3%).

An Appadurai-led BC NDP would be four points behind the BC Liberals (31% to 35%). The BC Greens would be third with 16%, followed by a new provincial party led by Eby (10%) and the BC Conservatives (6%).

When asked about the most important issue facing the province, almost two-in-five British Columbians (38%, +5) select housing, homelessness and poverty—a proportion that jumps to 43% among women and to 47% among those aged 18-to-34.

Health care is second on the list of concerns with 28% (+5), rising to 44% among British Columbians aged 55 and over. The economy and jobs is third on the list with 11% (-5), followed by crime and public safety (8%, +4) and the environment (6%, -4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 9 to October 11, 2022, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Governing CAQ Heavily Favoured by Voters in Quebec

More than half of Quebecers approve of the way François Legault is handling his duties as premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 23, 2022] – The ruling Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is the top choice of voters in the upcoming provincial ballot, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Quebecers, 40% of decided voters say they will support the CAQ candidate in their constituency in next month’s provincial election.

The Conservative Party of Quebec is second with 18%, followed by the Liberal Party of Quebec with 17%, Québec solidaire with 14% and the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 10%.

Support is particularly impressive for the CAQ among decided voters aged 55 and over (60%). The governing party is also ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (35%) while Québec solidaire is first among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (31%).

“The CAQ is holding on to more than three-in-four of its voters (77%) in the 2018 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rates are decidedly lower for the Liberals (52%), Québec solidaire (50%) and the PQ (47%).”

More than half of Quebecers (57%) approve of the way Premier and CAQ leader François Legault has performed in his job. The rating is lower for Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (37%), PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (36%), Official Opposition and Liberal leader Dominique Anglade (33%) and Conservative leader Éric Duhaime (31%).

Legault is also ahead on the “Best Premier” question (43%), with Duhaime (13%), Anglade (11%), Nadeau-Dubois (10%) and  Plamondon (6%) far behind.

Among the five main party leaders, only Plamondon manages a positive momentum score at this stage of the campaign (+1). Nadeau-Dubois (-4), Legault (-11), Duhaime (-15) and Anglade (-15) are in negative territory.

More than two-in-five Quebecers (45%) identify health care as the most important issue facing the province—a proportion that rises to 58% among those aged 55 and over. Only two other issues reach double-digits at the province-wide level: the economy and jobs (16%) and housing, homelessness and poverty (12%).

Legault is seen as the best party leader to handle six issues: the economy and jobs (39%), health care (36%), accountability (also 36%), crime and public safety (33%), education (30%) and energy and pipelines (28%).

The numbers are tighter on two other concerns: housing, poverty and homelessness (Legault 27%, Nadeau-Dubois 23%) and the environment (Legault 23%, Nadeau-Dubois 22%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 19 to September 21, 2022, among 700 Quebec adults, including 616 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

More in Canada and U.S. Feel Climate Change is Major Crisis

Most Canadians and Americans are willing to pay higher taxes in order to adequately address global warming.

Vancouver, BC [September 13, 2022] – The concerns of residents of Canada and the United States about global warming have increased over the past two years, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 68% of Canadians (+6 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2020) and 60% of Americans (+9) feel that climate change is a “major crisis”.

Almost seven-in-ten Canadians (69%, +5) and three-in-five Americans (60%, +7) think global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities.

About one-in-five respondents in the two countries (20% in Canada and 21% in the United States) believe climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by natural changes. Only 5% of Canadians and 12% of Americans brand global warming as a theory that has not yet been proven.

“Belief in human-made climate change is low among Republicans in the United States (35%) and Conservatives in Canada (47%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The numbers are strikingly different among Democrats in the United States (80%) and Liberal Party voters in Canada (82%).”

Majorities of Canadians and Americans (59% and 61% respectively) say they are willing to pay higher taxes to adequately address climate change. Only two other issues come close to this level of acceptance for higher taxation: schools (CAN 57%, USA 64%) and homelessness (CAN 57%, USA 61%).

Fewer Canadians and Americans are willing to pay higher taxes in order to adequately address four other issues: forest fires (55% and 58% respectively), floods (52% and 56% respectively), housing improvements (51% each) and transit improvements (44% and 46% respectively).

Sizeable majorities of Canadians and Americans believe three groups should be doing more now to deal with issues related to climate change that are happening or impacting people directly now: companies and corporations (75% and 70% respectively), governments (69% and 65%) and individuals and consumers (67% and 65%).

Most residents of both countries also believe that more action is required to address issues related to climate change that may happen or impact people directly in the future from companies and corporations (76% in Canada and 70% in the United States), governments (72% and 66% respectively) and individuals and consumers (68% and 65%).

Parents of children under the age of 18 were asked about the effect of conversations they have had with their kids about climate change. Significant proportions of parents in Canada (85%) and the United States (79%) say they are recycling more as a result of these chats.

Practically half of American parents (49%) and a majority of Canadian parents (55%) claim to be driving less, and more than two-in-five (44% in the United States, 47% in Canada) say they are taking shorter showers as a result of conversations about global warming with their children.

Fewer parents in each country acknowledge taking other steps, such as reducing their consumption of meat (CAN 36%, USA 30%), changing the way they voted in a federal election (24% each) or changing the way they voted in a local election (CAN 18%, USA 21%).

Methodology: Results are based on online studies conducted from August 19 to August 21, 2022, among representative samples of 1,000 adults in Canada and the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian and U.S. census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for each country.

Find our data tables for Canada here, the data tables for the United States here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart and Sim Are Frontrunners in Vancouver Mayoral Election

More than a third of likely voters believe housing is the most important issue facing the city right now.

Vancouver, BC [September 8, 2022] – Four mayoral candidates are in double-digits as voters in Vancouver ponder their choices in next month’s election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 35% of decided voters in the City of Vancouver would support incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Vancouver, while 30% would cast their ballot for Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC).

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver is in third place with 17 per cent, followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 13% and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) with 4%.

More than a third of likely voters in Vancouver (35%) say housing is the most important issue facing the city, followed by drug overdoses (14%), crime (9%), poverty (also 9%) and property taxes (also 9%).

“Concerns about housing are particularly high among women (42%) and likely voters aged 35-to-54 (39%) in the City of Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Drug overdoses are a more prevalent topic among likely voters who reside Downtown (19%) than among their counterparts who live on the West Side (13%) or the East Side (11%).”

Two thirds of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (67%) have followed the municipal electoral campaign “very closely” or “moderately closely.”

Over the past two months, a majority of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (52%) have seen, read or heard media stories where mayoral or council candidates discussed their position on issues. Almost three-in-ten (29%) have visited the website of a mayoral or council candidate.

While 16% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver have interacted with a mayoral or council candidate on social media (such as following on Twitter or liking on Facebook), the proportion rises to 25% among those aged 18-to-34.

Just over two thirds of likely voters in Vancouver (68%) support the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education”, which raises awareness of and welcomes students of all sexual orientations, gender identities and family structures.

In national survey conducted by Research Co. in July 2019, 62% of Canadians supported the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education” in their province.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 3 to September 5, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Fewer Than One-in-Four Albertans Support Outright Sovereignty

Public backing for the creation of an independent state rises if other western provinces join the new nation.

Vancouver, BC [September 2, 2022] – Few Albertans openly endorse the idea of their province becoming a sovereign entity, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 23% of Albertans support their province becoming a country independent from Canada, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February 2021. Seven-in-ten Albertans (70%, +1) are opposed to this idea.

Support for establishing an independent country encompassing Alberta and Saskatchewan reaches 24% (-2). The same proportion of Albertans (24%) would welcome the creation of a sovereign state featuring their province, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

The notion of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia becoming a country independent from Canada is supported by three-in-ten Albertans (30%), while just over three-in-five (61%) are opposed.

Almost three-in-four Albertans (73%, -3) oppose the idea of Alberta joining the United States, while 21% (+3) are supportive—including 26% of those aged 18-to-34.

Just over three-in-five Albertans (61%, +2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in July 2019) consider themselves “Canadians first, Albertans second.” Fewer than three-in-ten (28%, +1) say they are “Albertans first, Canadians second.”

“There is a remarkable political divide when Albertans ponder their allegiance to province and country,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 17% of those who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the last provincial election say they are Albertans first, the proportion rises to 45% among those who supported the United Conservative Party (UCP).”

More than a third of Albertans (37%, -7) believe Ralph Klein is the best premier the province has had since November 1985. Rachel Notley is second on the list with 20% (+3).

When asked to name the worst recent premier of the province, two-in-five Albertans (40%, +37) select current head of government Jason Kenney. Notley (19%, -7) and Alison Redford (12%, -13) are the only former premiers to reach double-digits on this question.

Half of Albertans (50%) say they would move to British Columbia if they had to leave and relocate to another Canadian province. Saskatchewan is a distant second  with 11%, followed by Ontario with 10% and Nova Scotia with 4%.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 21 to August 23, 2022, among 700 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Americans More Upset Than Canadians When Pondering Freedom

Just over half of residents of each country feel their vote in federal elections does not make a difference.

Vancouver, BC [August 25, 2022] – Residents of the United States are significantly more likely than their counterparts in Canada to keep their political views to themselves, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 49% of Americans and 32% of Canadians say they cannot express their political views sometimes because they fear reprisals.

“Most Republicans in the United States (55%) claim to withhold their political views sometimes, compared to 47% of Democrats and 48% of Independents,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Canada, this behaviour is more pronounced among those who voted for the People’s Party (68%), the Green Party (43%) and the Conservative Party (41%) in last year’s federal election.”

While more than seven-in-ten Americans (73%) feel that their freedoms are under attack by elected politicians, only 39% of Canadians hold the same sentiment.

More than three-in-five Americans (62%) and just over two-in-five Canadians (41%) believe their respective federal governments are oppressive and controlling.

More than half of Americans (52%) and Canadians (51%) feel that their vote in federal elections does not make a difference.

More than a third of Canadians think four issues are worse now than ten years ago: the ability of people to disagree with each other on social media (46%), the ability of people to disagree with each other in conversation (40%), the ability of people to convince others about looking at an issue differently (38%) and the ability of people to question stories they learn about in the media (37%).

Americans are significantly more likely to believe that certain elements of public discourse have deteriorated over the past decade, including the ability of people to disagree with each other on social media (63%), the ability of people to disagree with each other in conversation (62%), the ability of people to convince others about looking at an issue differently (58%) and the ability of people to question stories they learn about in the media (50%).

More than one-in-five Canadians say they find themselves disagreeing with other people “many times” about COVID-19 mandates and vaccines (26%), federal politics (24%) and provincial politics (22%).

In the United States, at least one-in-four residents disagree with other people “many times” about national politics (40%), COVID-19 mandates and vaccines (36%), state politics (28%), immigration (also 28%), morality (25%) and local politics (also 25%).

More than three-in-ten Canadians (31%) say they stopped talking to a person, or avoided a person, on account of a disagreement related to COVID-19 mandates and vaccines. Fewer Canadians chose the same route to deal with a person who they disagreed with on morality (22%), religion (20%), federal politics (19%) and immigration (18%).

In the United States, at least one-in-five Americans have ceased talking to a person, or avoided a person, due to a disagreement on national politics (32%), COVID-19 mandates and vaccines (30%), morality (25%), religion (24%), immigration (22%) and state politics (21%).

Methodology: Results are based on online studies conducted from August 19 to August 21, 2022, among representative samples of 1,000 adults Canada and the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian and U.S. census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for each country.

Find our data tables for Canada here, the data tables for the United States here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Not All Metro Vancouverites Are Keen on Amalgamation

Almost two-in-five likely voters in the region think housing is the most important issue facing their municipality right now.

Vancouver, BC [August 12, 2022] – The idea of merging all Metro Vancouver municipalities into a single entity is not particularly attractive to all likely voters in the region, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Metro Vancouver, 44% of respondents think it would be worthwhile to explore the idea of amalgamating all of the municipalities in Metro Vancouver, like they did in Toronto or Montreal.

“Majorities of likely voters in Surrey (53%) and Vancouver (52%) favour the concept of amalgamation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In all other regions of Metro Vancouver, the level of support for this concept is decidedly lower.”

In the North Shore municipalities, only 40% of likely voters think it is time to explore amalgamation. The proportions are lower in Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (37%), the Tri-Cities (35%), Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (23%) and Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge (13%).

More than two-in-five likely voters in Metro Vancouver (45%) think their municipality should abandon the “at-large system” (where voters select individual councillors) and move to a “ward system” (where councillors can be elected in specific constituencies).

The “ward system” is more popular in the two most populous municipalities: Vancouver (60%) and Surrey (53%).

Almost two-in-five likely voters in Metro Vancouver (38%) say housing is the most important issue facing their municipality, followed by property taxes (11%), crime (9%), climate change (also 9%) and COVID-19 (8%).

Housing is a particularly serious concern for likely voters in Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (55%), while concerns over crime are more prevalent in Surrey (18%) and Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (13%) .

More than half of likely voters in the Tri-Cities (64%), the North Shore (61%), Vancouver (54%) and Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (53%) are satisfied with the performance of their mayors. The rating is lower in Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (40%), Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge (also 40%) and Surrey (23%).

More than three-in-five likely voters in the Tri-Cities (62%) and the North Shore (61%) are satisfied with the work of their councils. All other regions are below the 50% mark on this question, including Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (47%), Vancouver (37%), Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge (36%), Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (34%) and Surrey (28%).

Almost half of likely voters across Metro Vancouver (47%) say they are satisfied with the state of affairs in their municipality. Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge hold the lowest ranking on this question (20%) while the Tri-Cities are at the top (68%).

More than half of likely voters in Metro Vancouver are satisfied with three other issues in their respective municipalities: public safety (55%), the quality of services (64%) and  cleanliness (67%).

The lowest rating for public safety is observed in Surrey, where 39% of likely voters are satisfied and a majority (57%) are dissatisfied.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 3 to August 6, 2022, among 800 likely voters in Metro Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

A Third of Canadian Households Experienced COVID-19 Recently

The country’s residents are divided on whether restrictions and mandates were lifted at the right time in their community.

Vancouver, BC [August 8, 2022] – A growing number of Canadians acknowledge that their household has been negatively impacted by COVID-19 over the past few weeks, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of Canadians say themselves, or someone else in their household, became infected with COVID-19 after restrictions and mandates were lifted in their community, up 14 points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May 2022.

Across the country 46% of Canadians (+3) believe restrictions and mandates were abandoned too early in their community, while 44% (-5) think the decision was made at the right time.

“More than half of Atlantic Canadians (55%) appear disappointed with the absence of restrictions and mandates related to COVID-19,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower in Alberta (48%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%), British Columbia (45%), Quebec (also 45%) and Ontario (43%).”

Compared to May, there is little fluctuation when Canadians are asked about the possible return of specific regulations. Two thirds (66%, -2) would be satisfied if they have to wear a mask or face covering when entering an indoor premise. Slightly smaller proportions of Canadians would feel the same way if a reduction of capacity at venues (such as cinemas, theatres, concert halls and sports arenas) is implemented (63%, -1) or if proof of vaccination is required once again to go to restaurants or public events (60%, -1).

Three-in-five Canadians (60%, +1) believe it is only a matter of time before everyone catches COVID-19, and a majority (54%, +2) claim that, as long as people are vaccinated, the virus is a minor nuisance. In addition, 63% of Canadians (+3) foresee being vaccinated against COVID-19 at least once again in the next six months.

Just over two thirds of Canadians (68%) state that the worst of COVID-19 is definitely or probably “behind us”, down eight points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May 2022.

More than three-in-four Canadians (77%, -1) continue to brand COVID-19 as a real threat—including 82% of those aged 55 and over.

Public satisfaction with the pandemic performance of the federal government dropped from 61% in May to 55% this month. The rating is highest in Quebec (60%) and Atlantic Canada (58%), followed by Ontario (53%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (52%), British Columbia (49%) and Alberta (48%).

The satisfaction rating also fell this month for provincial administrations (53%, -10) and municipal governments (59%, -6).

In the four most populous provinces of Canada, the level of satisfaction with COVID-19 management is highest in British Columbia (62%, =), followed by Quebec (58%, -9), Ontario (48%, -17) and Alberta (39%, -14).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 1 to August 3, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Great11

Positive Views on TMX Pipeline Rise in BC, Drop Slightly in Alberta

A third of British Columbians (33%) believe the project should be stopped, down eight points since October 2021.

Vancouver, BC [August 5, 2022] – Favourable perceptions on the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline have increased in British Columbia and remain high in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 51% of British Columbians agree with the federal government’s decision to re-approve the project, up six points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2021.

Practically seven-in-ten Albertans (69%) also agree with the re-approval of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, down five points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in November 2020.

In British Columbia, residents of Southern BC (66%), Northern BC (61%) and the Fraser Valley (58%) are more likely to hold positive views on the pipeline project. The rating is lower in Metro Vancouver (50%) and Vancouver Island (41%).

In Alberta, sizeable majorities of residents of Edmonton (72%) and Calgary (66%) are in favour of the pipeline expansion, along with 70% of those who live other areas of the province.

“The proportion of British Columbians who want the provincial government to do anything necessary to ensure that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion does not happen dropped from 41% in October 2021 to 33% in July 2022,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Alberta, 25% of residents (+3) share the same point of view.”

More than half of British Columbians (51%, -4) and three-in-five Albertans (61%, +2) say they are disappointed with the way the federal government has managed the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion.

Significant majorities of Albertans (78%, -1) and British Columbians (71%, +6) believe the Trans Mountain Pipeline will create hundreds of jobs for residents of each province.

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, -7) think the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion threatens the health and safety of the province’s residents. Just under three-in-ten Albertans (28%, +11) share this point of view.

Fewer than half of residents of the two provinces expect gas prices to be lower now that the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion has been re-approved: 40% in Alberta (+6) and 37% in British Columbia (+1).

In November 2016, the federal government rejected a proposal—known as the Enbridge Northern Gateway—to build a new pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s north coast, to export oil on tankers to Asian markets.

Just under half of British Columbians (46%, +5) believe it is time to reconsider the Enbridge Northern Gateway proposal, while just over a quarter (27%, -7) disagree.

Support for taking a second look at the Enbridge Northern Gateway is highest in Northern BC (60%), followed by Southern BC (51%), Metro Vancouver (45%), the Fraser Valley (43%) and Vancouver Island (38%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 29 to July 31, 2022, among 800 adults in British Columbia and 800 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points for each province, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables for British Columbia here, our data tables for Alberta here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 Photo Credit: Codex

Two-in-Five Canadians Expect National Economy to Decline

Positive perceptions of Justin Trudeau as an economic manager have fallen to 41% across the country. 

Vancouver, BC [August 28, 2022] – A majority of Canadians perceive the nation’s finances in a negative light, and there is a significant increase in the proportion of the country’s residents who foresee a worsening situation, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 57% of Canadians consider the economic conditions in Canada right now as “bad” or “very bad”, up three points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in January 2022.

Only two-in-five Canadians (40%, -1) describe the country’s economic conditions as “very good” or “good” today.

Positive views on the national economy reach 55% in Quebec (+7). The rating is significantly lower across all other regions of Canada, including British Columbia (37%, -3), Atlantic Canada (36%, -7) Ontario (34%, -9), Alberta (32%, -1) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%, +4).

Just 13% of Canadians (-7) believe the Canadian economy will improve over the next six months, while 40% (+10) predict a decline and 40% (-1) foresee conditions staying as they are.

While 57% of Canadians (-1) define their own personal finances today as “very good” or “good”, just over two-in-five (41%, +3) describe them as “bad” or “very bad.”

Only 41% of Canadians (-6) express confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to do the right thing to help the economy, while a majority (52%, +4) distrust him.

“Two thirds of Albertans (68%) have misgivings about Trudeau as an economic manager,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The negative rating is lower in British Columbia (55%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (53%), Atlantic Canada (51%), Ontario (48%) and Quebec (46%).”

More than a third of Canadians (37%, =) trust Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem to make the right decisions to help the nation’s finances. The rating is lower (26%) for federal Leader of the Opposition Candice Bergen.

There are some significant changes in the perceptions of Canadians on inflation. More than four-in-five (81%, -2) continue to expect higher prices for a week’s worth of groceries over the next six months, and majorities also foresee paying more for a new car (68%, -3) and a new television set (57%, -5).

The needle moved on two items, with 61% of Canadians (-21) expecting to pay more for gasoline in the next six months and only 44% (-28) thinking real estate will be more expensive.

Half of Canadians have worried “frequently” or “occasionally” about the safety of their savings (50%, +6) and the value of their investments (50%, +9) over the past couple of months.

Fewer Canadians are preoccupied about unemployment affecting their household (34%, +3), being able to pay their mortgage or rent (34%, +3) or their employer running into serious financial trouble (24%, -2).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 11 to July 13, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Three-in-Ten Canadians Say Justin Trudeau is Worst Recent PM

Pierre Trudeau (19%) and Stephen Harper (17%) are ahead when Canadians are asked who the best recent head of government is.

Vancouver, BC [July 8, 2022] – The perceptions of Canadians on the tenure of Justin Trudeau have worsened over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 29% of Canadians think Justin Trudeau has been Canada’s worst prime minister since 1968, up seven points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in July 2021.

“Animosity towards Justin Trudeau is decidedly strong in one Canadian province,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost half of Albertans (49%) consider him the worst recent prime minister.”

Fewer than one-in-five Canadians (17%) think Stephen Harper has been the worst prime minister since 1968. The numbers are lower for Pierre Trudeau (6%, =), Kim Campbell (also 6%, +1), Brian Mulroney (5%, -2), Jean Chrétien (also 5%, +2), Joe Clark (3%, -1), Paul Martin (2%, =) and John Turner (also 2%, =).

When asked who Canada’s best recent head of government has been, 19% of Canadians (-1) select Pierre Trudeau, while 17% (+1) pick Harper. Justin Trudeau is third with 12% (-1), followed by Chrétien (9%, +2) and Mulroney (8%, -1).

Pierre Trudeau leads Harper as the best recent prime minister among Canadians aged 55 and over (27% to 21%). There is a virtual tie among Canadians aged 35-to-54 (Harper 18%, Pierre Trudeau 17%), while Justin Trudeau leads among Canadians aged 18-to-34 (19%).

British Columbians are split when assessing the best recent head of government (Pierre Trudeau 19%, Harper 17%). Pierre Trudeau tops the list in Quebec (23%), Ontario (22%) and Atlantic Canada (also 22%), while Harper is ahead in Alberta (35%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (28%).

The survey also asked questions about 10 different politicians who served as leaders of the Official Opposition in Ottawa over the past five decades.

Just under one-in-four Canadians think the last two leaders of the Conservative Party—Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole—would have made good prime ministers (23% each).

The rating on this question is lower for former Conservative Party leader Rona Ambrose (22%, -2), former Canadian Alliance leader Stockwell Day (20%, =) and two former Liberal Party leaders: Stéphane Dion (18%, -2) and Michael Ignatieff (also 18%, -1).

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%, -1) think former Progressive Conservative leader Robert Stanfield would have made a good head of government. The results are similar for former New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Tom Mulcair (29%, -1) and former Reform Party leader Preston Manning (28%, =).

A majority of Canadians (52%, +2) believe former NDP leader Jack Layton would have made a good prime minister—a proportion that rises to 58% in Quebec and 62% among Canadians aged 55 and over.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 25 to June 27, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Bobak Ha’Eri

Separation from Canada Enthralls Some Albertans and Quebecers

Half of Canadians (51%) believe their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa.

Vancouver, BC [July 1, 2022] – A third of residents of Alberta and Quebec hold positive feelings towards the notion of sovereignty, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 33% of Albertans (-5 since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in December 2021) and 32% of Quebecers (+2) say their respective provinces would be better off as independent countries.

Support for outright sovereignty is lower among residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (28%, +10), Ontario (25%, +2), Atlantic Canada (21%, +7) and British Columbia (19%, +3).

“Expressed support for separation has diminished in Alberta over the past six months, but remains the highest in Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Quebec, with a provincial election looming, support for sovereignty has risen slightly.”

Across the country, 17% of Canadians (-1) think their province would be better off joining the United States and becoming an American state.

In Alberta, the proportion of residents who express a preference for joining the United States has dropped markedly, from 25% in December 2021 to 14% in June 2022.

A majority of Canadians (51%, +2) think their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in charge.

Residents of Alberta are more likely to believe that their province would benefit from having a different head of government in Ottawa (64%, -1). The proportions are lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (60%, +4), British Columbia (53%, =), Atlantic Canada (52%, +14), Ontario (48%, -1) and Quebec (45%, +3).

Canadians aged 55 and over are more likely to believe that their province would be better off under a different Prime Minister (52%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (50%) and aged 35-to-54 (49%).

More than half of Canadians (51%, =) say their province would be better off with a different premier in charge.

Almost two thirds of Albertans (65%, -8) would prefer to have a different person in charge of the provincial government right now. The rating is significantly lower in Quebec (48%, =), Ontario (43%, -14) and British Columbia (41%, +6).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 18 to June 20, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Would Appoint Anti-Corruption Commissioner

Most respondents believe the Cullen Commission enabled the public to learn more about how to curb money laundering.

Vancouver, BC [June 24, 2022] – Public satisfaction with the provincial government’s decision to establish the Commission of Inquiry into Money Laundering in British Columbia has increased since last year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 62% of British Columbians think the government made the right call in instituting the Cullen Commission, up five points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2021.

“British Columbians of all political stripes believe it was prudent to set up the Commission of Inquiry into Money Laundering,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This is the view of 73% of BC New Democratic Party (NDP) voters, 70% of BC Liberal voters and 65% of BC Green Party voters.”

Three-in-five British Columbians (60%, +7) think we have learned more about why money laundering became a problem in British Columbia due to the Cullen Commission—a proportion that rises to 68% among those aged 55 and over.

More than half of British Columbians (54%, +5) believe we have learned more about what to do in the future to curb money laundering in the province—including 60% of men and 59% of residents of Northern BC.

When asked who they think deserves “all of the blame” or “most of the blame” for the current situation related to money laundering in the province, 41% of British Columbians (+2) mention the previous government headed by the BC Liberals.

One third of British Columbians (33%, -3) say the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC) deserves “all of the blame” or “most of the blame” for the situation. The numbers are lower for the current federal government headed by the Liberal Party (27%, +7), the current provincial government headed by the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (20%, +3) and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) (18%, +1).

The provincial government announced its intention to establish the Commission of Inquiry into Money Laundering in British Columbia in May 2019. The Cullen Commission’s hearings ended in September 2021. The final report was released earlier this month.

The survey also asked British Columbians if they regarded two statements as true or untrue. For almost seven-in-ten respondents (69%), the notion that executives at the BCLC allowed suspicious cash transactions to continue in their casinos because these transactions resulted in higher revenue and pay bonuses is “definitely” or “probably” true.

Two thirds of British Columbians (66%) believe it is true that former minister of public safety and solicitor general Rich Coleman knowingly ignored warnings about suspected drug-money laundering in casinos.

The Province of Quebec has established the Office of Anti-Corruption Commissioner “to ensure the coordination of actions to prevent and fight corruption in the public sector, including in contractual matters.”

More than three-in-four British Columbians (78%, +7) would like to see the province instituting an office similar to the one that is currently in place in Quebec.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 3 to June 5, 2022, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Almost Three-in-Five Vancouver Voters Want a Ward System

Majorities also support establishing tougher guidelines for residents who want to become candidates for public office.

Vancouver, BC [June 21, 2022] – More voters in the City of Vancouver are in favour of changing the way they elect their councillors, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 58% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (+6 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in November 2020) would move to a “ward system” (where councillors can be elected in specific constituencies) and abandon the currently used “at-large system” (where voters select 10 councillors).

Support for the implementation of a “ward system” in Vancouver is high among likely voters who reside in the East Side (57%), the West Side (58%) and Downtown (60%).

Majorities of voters who cast ballots for Kennedy Stewart (66%), Ken Sim (63%) or Shauna Sylvester (56%) in the 2018 Vancouver mayoral election are in favour of a “ward system.”

In order to run for office in the City of Vancouver, candidates are currently required to present the signatures of 25 nominators. More than three-in-five likely voters (62%, +2) believe this number should be raised to 100 signatures in future elections.

“Voters of all ages believe it is time to raise the bar for aspiring municipal politicians in Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of likely voters aged 18-to-34 (60%), aged 35-to-54 (62%) and aged 55 and over (65%) believe candidates must secure at least 100 signatures if they want their name to appear on the ballot.”

In addition, candidates who wish to run for office in the City of Vancouver are currently required to pay a $100 deposit, which is refunded after the election. More than half of likely voters (54%, -1) think this number should be raised to $500 in future elections.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 7 to June 9, 2022, among 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty. 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

More Than Half of Vancouver Voters Would Abolish Park Board

Almost three-in-five respondents support changing zoning laws to allow up to six strata title units on a standard lot.

Vancouver, BC [June 17, 2022] – Public confidence in the only elected Park Board in Canada has eroded considerably over the past year and a half, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 52% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver think the Board of Parks and Recreation should be eliminated, and that public parks and the public recreation system should be placed under the jurisdiction of City Council.

“In November 2020, only 44% of municipal likely voters in Vancouver favoured the elimination of the Board of Parks and Recreation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This month, the proportion has reached 52%.”

Public support for abolishing Vancouver’s Park Board is highest among likely voters who reside Downtown (63%), followed by those who live in the West Side (52%) and the East Side (45%).

Vancouverites who voted for Kennedy Stewart or Ken Sim in the 2018 mayoral election are significantly more likely to endorse the abolition of the Board of Parks and Recreation (61% and 60% respectively) than those who cast a ballot for Shauna Sylvester  (43%).

Just over half of likely voters in Vancouver (51%, +5) believe it would be worthwhile to explore the idea of amalgamating all of the municipalities in Metro Vancouver, like they did in Toronto or Montreal.

Two thirds of Vancouverites who voted for Stewart in 2018 (67%) support exploring the concept of amalgamation, compared to just under half of those who cast a ballot for Sim (49%).

Almost three-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (58%, +5) are in favour of changing zoning laws to allow property owners to build up to six strata title units on a standard lot, provided the new building is no taller than an average home.

Majorities of Vancouver’s likely voters who currently rent or own their primary residence support a change in zoning laws (65% and 54% respectively).

Seven-in-ten likely voters in the City of Vancouver (71%, -10) are in favour of the plan to extend the Skytrain Millennium Line (currently under construction to Arbutus) to the University of British Columbia (UBC) campus at Point Grey.

Public support for the proposed SkyTrain extension is strongest among likely voters who reside Downtown (75%), followed by those who live in the East Side (72%) and the West Side (67%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 7 to June 9, 2022, among 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty. 

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Ontario Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

While most voters pointed out that it was “time for change”, the two main opposition leaders never gained on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [June 8, 2022] – The Progressive Conservative Party will form a majority government once again in Ontario, after all the votes from the 2022 provincial election have been tallied. An “exit poll” conducted by Research Co. provides an opportunity to look at why the sentiment for change that was expressed by most voters never materialized.

In our final poll of the campaign, Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford had a significant advantage over his main rivals on the “Best Premier” question. While 37% of Ontarians favoured Ford for the province’s top job, the rating was decidedly lower for Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath (21%) and Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (19%).

The election’s outcome does not suggest an extraordinary rekindling of voters with Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, but rather a failure from the two opposition parties to entice voters. In 2018, right before Ford’s victory and the end of the tenure of Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, more than three-in-four voters in Ontario (77%) thought a new premier was needed.

In our survey of Ontarians who cast a ballot in the 2022 provincial election, 64% of respondents told us that it was “time for a change of government” in the province. The desire to make Ford a one-term premier encompassed enormous proportions of Ontarians who voted for the NDP (95%) and the Liberals (88%) this year.

Still, when Ontario voters were asked to point out their main motivation for supporting a particular party in 2022, more than two-in-five (44%) mentioned ideas and policies. This indicator is more powerful for New Democrats (48%) and Liberals (47%) than for Progressive Conservatives (40%).

On the other hand, one-in-four Ontario voters (25%) say their ballot was cast primarily on account of the party’s leader. This time, the two opposition parties lag. While 31% of Progressive Conservatives thought of the leader more than anything, the numbers drop to 21% among those who supported either the New Democrats or the Liberals.

Across Ontario, only 9% of voters said they were thinking of a desire for change when casting their ballot. This indicator usually rises in provincewide elections when incumbents are unpopular. Even among New Democrats and Liberals, the number of voters who actively yearned for a new government was small (14% and 12% respectively).

One of the biggest hindrances that centre-left supporters may point to is the electoral system. In spite of endless discussions about “strategic voting”—with some pointing to predictions in an attempt to lure voters to one party or another—only 45% of Ontarians said they cast their ballot strategically: voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. As expected, “strategic voting” was significantly more favoured by voters aged 18-to-34 (62%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (47%) and aged 55 and over (33%).

But even if “strategic voting” failed to deliver change, many Ontarians would be happy with proportional representation in provincial elections. Across the province, 58% of voters like this idea. There is no generation gap on this question, with similar proportions of voters aged 18-to-34 (58%), aged 35-to-54 (59%) and aged 55 and over (57%) welcoming a new system. As expected, those who cast ballots for the New Democrats (70%) and Liberals (64%) are more enthused about the prospect of electoral reform than those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives (53%).

Ontario voters are not entirely convinced on enacting a merger of the two centre-left parties. Just under two-in-five Ontario voters (39%) would welcome this idea, but this number includes majorities of those who cast ballots for the Liberals (58%) and the New Democrats (57%). Progressive Conservative voters, who envisioned their party coasting to a win, are significantly more skeptical: only 23% would like to see a united “Liberal Democrat” party in 2026.

Even with a majority mandate, and with severe tasks ahead for the opposition, there is a sense of dismay from voters. Practically four-in-five (79%) say they would like to see better people serving as leaders of Ontario’s main political parties. On this question, significant majorities of supporters of the New Democrats (87%), Liberals (83%) and Progressive Conservatives (72%) think these political organizations owe them better options, individually and collectively.

Find our data tables here. 

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on June 1 and June 2, 2022, among 500 Ontario adults who voted in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Double-Digit Advantage for Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives

Half of Ontarians (50%) approve of the performance of Doug Ford as Premier and PC leader, while 46% disapprove.

Vancouver, BC [June 1, 2022] – Public support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party has increased as the provincial election in Ontario draws near, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarian adults, 39% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their riding tomorrow or have already done so, up five points since the previous Research Co. poll completed in mid-May.

The Ontario Liberal Party remains in second place with 26% (-3), followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 23% (=), the Ontario Green Party with 6% (-1), the New Blue Party of Ontario with 3% (=) and the Ontario Party with 1% (=).

Since mid-May, the Progressive Conservatives have improved their standing in Ontario among both male decided voters (42%, +5) and female decided voters (37%, +7).

More than two-in-five decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (also 42%) intend to back an Ontario PC candidate. The race is closer among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (PC 31%, Liberal 28%, NDP 26%).

“The Progressive Conservatives are keeping 81% of their 2018 voters, while the New Democrats are only maintaining 71% of them,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The Ontario Liberals are only attracting 52% of Ontarians who voted for the federal Liberal Party in last year’s Canadian federal election, as one-in-four of these voters (25%) are planning to vote for Ontario PC candidates tomorrow.”

Half of Ontarians (50%, +4) approve of the way Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford has handled his duties.

The rating is lower for Official Opposition and Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath (46%, -1) Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (42%, =), Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%, +9), New Blue Party of Ontario leader Jim Karahalios (16%, +3) and Ontario Party leader Derek Sloan (16%, +4).

On the momentum question, Schreiner does particularly well, with 18% of Ontarians (+9 since mid-May) saying their opinion of the Ontario Green Party leader has improved since the electoral campaign started. The needle did not move for Del Duca (20%, =) and smaller gains are seen for Horwath (19%, +2), Ford (also 19%, +3), Karahalios (6%, +2) and Sloan (5%, +2).

More than a third of Ontarians (37%, +4) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province among the six main party leaders. Horwath is a distant second with 21% (-2), followed by Del Duca (19%, -1), Schreiner (7%, +4), Karahalios (2%, =) and Sloan (also 2%, =).

There is little movement on the issue landscape, where the top ranking belongs to housing, poverty and homelessness (26%, =), followed by health care (23%, -2) and the economy and jobs (22%, +2).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 31 and June 1, 2022, among 700 Ontario adults, including 659 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.8 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Josh Evnin