NDP Ahead in British Columbia Two Years After Last Election

Two-in-five residents identify “housing, homelessness and poverty” as the most important issue in the province.

Vancouver, BC [May 29, 2019] – The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is the top choice in British Columbia’s current political landscape, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 39% of decided voters in British Columbia would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding if a provincial election were held tomorrow.

The BC Liberals are in second place with 30%, followed by the BC Green Party with 21% and the BC Conservative Party with 9%.

The New Democrats are ahead among female voters (42%, with the BC Liberals and the BC Greens tied at 24%), as well as voters aged 18-to-34 and 35-to-54 (40% among each group).

Among male voters, the BC Liberals and the BC NDP are practically tied (37% and 36% respectively), while the New Democrats enjoy a six-point edge among voters aged 55 and over (38% to 32%).

The BC Greens are particularly popular with women (24%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (25%)

“The BC NDP and the BC Green Party are holding on to more than four-in-five of the voters who supported them in the 2017 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “For the BC Liberals, the number is slightly lower at 76%.”

Just over half of British Columbians (51%) approve of the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan, while 34% disapprove.

Green Party leader Andrew Weaver’s approval rating stands at 42%, while the numbers are lower for BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson (34%) and BC Conservatives leader Trevor Bolin (20%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians (42%) believe “housing, homelessness and poverty” is the most important issue facing the province today—a proportion that climbs to 49% among residents aged 18-to-34, 47% among Metro Vancouverites and 45% among women.

“Health care” and “the economy and jobs” are tied at 11%, followed by “the environment” at 10%, “energy and pipelines” at 9%, and “crime and public safety” at 7%.

Concerns about “housing, homelessness and poverty” are decidedly higher among residents who voted for the BC NDP (46%) and the BC Greens (44%) in 2017 than among BC Liberal supporters (29%).

Conversely, “energy and pipelines” is the second most important issue for BC Liberal supporters (17%, compared to 8% among BC NDP voters and 5% among BC Green voters).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 20 to May 22, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: Owen 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservatives Extend Their Lead in Alberta

Opposition leader Jason Kenney has overtaken incumbent Rachel Notley as the “Best Premier” for the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 15, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) has extended its advantage in the final stages of the provincial campaign in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta (+4 since a Research Co. poll completed in early April) would support the UCP candidate in their riding in tomorrow’s provincial ballot.

The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 39% (-1), followed by the Alberta Party with 9% (+3) and the Liberal Party with 2% (-1). Two per cent of decided voters would back other parties or candidates.

The level of undecided voters across Alberta has dropped from 22% in early April to 10% in this survey. In the rural areas of the province, only 9% of residents are currently undecided (compared to 27% earlier this month).

Among decided voters, the UCP holds sizeable advantages over the NDP in three distinct demographics: men (57% to 29%), Albertans aged 55 and over (59% to 33%) and those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (60% to 29%).

The opposition UCP is also the top choice for Albertans aged 35-to-54 (46% to 41%) and Calgarians (48% to 37%).

Conversely, the NDP is ahead of the UCP among women (48% to 40%), Albertans aged 18-to-34 (47% to 38%) and those who live in Edmonton (46% to 40%). 

“The UCP is holding on to a large majority of voters who cast a ballot for either the Wildrose Party (77%) or the Progressive Conservatives (84%) in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are losing 14% of their voters in the last election to the UCP.”

On the “Best Premier” question, Jason Kenney of the UCP holds a three-point lead over incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP (36% to 33%), with Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party and David Khan of the Liberal Party in single digits (9% and 2% respectively).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 13 to April 15, 2019 among 602 Alberta adults, including 542 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservative Party Ahead in Alberta Campaign

Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney are tied when residents ponder who would make the “Best Premier” of the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 2, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) holds the upper hand as the provincial electoral campaign unfolds in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their riding in this month’s election. The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 40%, followed by the Alberta Party with 6% and the Liberal Party with 3%. Six per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

In the survey, 22% of Albertans are undecided on which party or candidate to support, including 27% of those who reside outside of the Calgary and Edmonton census metropolitan areas.

“The UCP is connecting well with male voters and Albertans aged 55 and over,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP is more popular in Edmonton and with women and voters aged 18-to-34.”

Almost two-in-five decided voters (38%) concede they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the election.

When asked which party leader would make the “Best Premier” for the province, incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP and challenger Jason Kenney of the UCP are tied with 32% each, followed by Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party with 7% and David Khan of the Liberal Party with 5%.

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%) say their opinion of Notley has worsened since the start of the electoral campaign, while a larger proportion of residents (38%) now has a more negative view of Kenney.

Across the province, 45% of Albertans approve of the way Notley has performed her duties, while 46% disapprove. 

The approval rating is lower for Kenney (38%, with 47% disapproving), Mandel (30%, with 39% disapproving) and Khan (23%, with 46% disapproving).

When asked about specific issues, Albertans select Notley as the leader who is better suited to handle health care (38%), the environment (36%), child care (also 36%), education (also 36%), housing, poverty and homelessness (32%), and seniors care (31%).

Kenney is preferred for the economy (38%), job creation (also 38%), energy and pipelines (also 38%), managing the province’s finances (36%), and crime and public safety (32%). 

The two main leaders are practically even on managing government accountability and transportation projects.

The most important issue for Albertans, by far, is the economy and jobs (44%), followed by health care (14%), energy and pipelines (13%) and government accountability (9%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 29 to April 1, 2019, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Tough Road Ahead for Trudeau and Liberals in British Columbia

More than half of British Columbians think that a different party leader would fare better as Canada’s Prime Minister.

Vancouver, BC [March 26, 2019] – A majority of British Columbians are looking at options beyond Justin Trudeau as the federal election nears, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 53% of British Columbians believe that “a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa as Prime Minister than Justin Trudeau.”

Men are more likely to believe that a different leader would fare better as Canada’s head of government (56%, compared to 50% for women). 

One third (34%) of British Columbians who voted for the federal Liberal Party in the 2015 election also believe a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa than the incumbent.

“With a few months to go before the next federal campaign begins, animosity toward the current prime minister in British Columbia is strongest outside of Metro Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of voters in the Fraser Valley (58%), Southern BC (57%) and Northern BC (55%) would prefer to have a different leader in charge.”

In addition, 50% of British Columbians think that “a different party would do things better in Ottawa as a government than the Liberals.” This group includes majorities of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (54%) and 55 and over (51%), as well as one-in-four (25%) federal Liberal voters from 2015.

When asked if they expect the Liberal Party to form the government again after the next federal election, 38% of British Columbians believe that this will be the case, while 44% disagree.

More than half of British Columbians report being “very familiar” or “moderately familiar” with the policies and ideas of the Liberal Party (78%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (72%), the Conservative Party (69%) and the Green Party (59%).

Only 16% of British Columbians are “very familiar” or “moderately familiar” with the policies and ideas of the People’s Party, while three-in-four (75%) say they are “not too familiar” or “not familiar at all” with them.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 8 to March 10, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Troubled by Birth Tourism, Call for Change

Almost three-in-four residents think Canada should establish new guidelines for birthright citizenship.

Vancouver, BC [February 26, 2019] – Many residents of British Columbia are concerned about the practice of “birth tourism”, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 82% of British Columbians believe “birth tourism” can be unfairly used to gain access to Canada’s education, health care and social programs.

“Birth tourism” is the practice of traveling to a specific country for the purpose of giving birth there and securing citizenship for the child in a country that has birthright citizenship. 

Canada allows expectant mothers who are foreign nationals to gain automatic citizenship for their children born in Canada. 

There have been reports of unregulated “for profit” businesses that have facilitated the practice of “birth tourism”  in Canada. Across British Columbia, 49% of residents say they have followed this issue “very closely” or “moderately closely” over the past year.

More than three-in-five British Columbians say “birth tourism” can degrade the value of Canadian citizenship (66%) and can displace Canadians from hospitals (63%).

An e-petition endorsed by Joe Peschisolido, the Member of Parliament for the Steveston—Richmond East constituency, is calling on the federal government to commit public resources to determine the full extent of “birth tourism” across Canada. A considerable majority of British Columbians (85%) agree with this proposal.

Seven-in-ten British Columbians (73%) believe Canada should “definitely” or “probably” consider establishing new guidelines for birthright citizenship, while 18% would keep the existing standards.

“There is no substantial variation on these questions when the ethnicity of respondents is considered,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “We find that 71% of British Columbians of East Asian descent and 75% of those of European descent would like to see some modifications to the current rules for birthright citizenship.”

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from February 15 to February 17, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca