Half of British Columbians Expect an Early Provincial Election

Residents aged 18-to-34 are more likely to say they would like to vote this year than their older counterparts.

Vancouver, BC [February 5, 2020] – A sizeable proportion of British Columbians believe the province will hold an early election to the Legislative Assembly this year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 51% of British Columbians expect to have an early provincial election this year, while one third (32%) do not and 16% are undecided.

British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (62%) are more likely to expect an early election in 2020 than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (47%) and aged 55 and over (35%).

When asked if they would like to have an early provincial ballot in 2020, a slim majority of British Columbians (52%) said they would, while 32% answered that they would not. The next provincial election in British Columbia is tentatively scheduled for October 2021.

On a regional basis, the appetite for an early election is strongest in Northern BC (75%), followed by Southern BC (52%), Metro Vancouver (also 52%), the Fraser Valley (50%) and Vancouver Island (49%).

“Almost two thirds of British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals in 2017 (65%) say they would like to hold an early election this year,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower among those who voted for the BC Green Party (55%) and the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (42%) in 2017.”

Across the province, three-in-five British Columbians (60%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the BC NDP in the next provincial election. The voter pool is lower for the BC Liberals (54%), the BC Conservative Party (46%) and the BC Green Party (45%).

The BC NDP holds the edge over the BC Liberals on currently having a definite or probable consideration from voters in Metro Vancouver (62% to 53%). Conversely, the BC Liberals have a higher commitment from voters than the BC NDP in Southern BC (61% to 50%).

In Vancouver Island, the Green Party is slightly ahead with 53%, with the BC NDP and the BC Liberals both at 51%.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from January 21 to January 24, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

BC’s Three Biggest Cities Get Satisfactory Grades on Most Issues

Vancouver posts the highest score on dealing with transportation, while Burnaby is ahead on handling crime.

Vancouver, BC [January 29, 2020] – More than two thirds of residents of Vancouver, Surrey and Burnaby are pleased with the way their municipal governments have handled three specific issues, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative samples in the three cities, 79% of residents say their municipal administration has done a “very good” or “good” job in providing sanitation services.

In addition, 70% of residents are satisfied with how parks and recreation facilities are being managed, and 69% think their municipal government is enhancing their overall quality of life.

More than three-in-five residents of Vancouver, Surrey and Burnaby are also content with what their municipal governments are doing to protect the environment (66%), promote tourism (65%), foster artistic and cultural activities (also 65%) and manage development and growth (63%).

At least half of residents are satisfied with the way Vancouver, Surrey and Burnaby are dealing with transportation (57%), dealing with crime (54%), making City Hall work in a transparent and unbiased fashion (52%), handling the city’s finances (52%) and engaging with regular people (50%).

“There are some subtle differences between the three cities when it comes to public safety,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While 60% of Burnaby residents endorse the performance of their administration, the proportion falls to 54% in Vancouver and 52% in Surrey.”

The lowest ranked issue across all three cities is dealing with homelessness and poverty (44%). Satisfaction with this file rises to 52% in Surrey, but is lower in Vancouver (42%) and Burnaby (39%).

The assessment of City of Vancouver residents on many services has increased markedly since a Research Co. survey conducted in October 2018, particularly on managing development and growth (from 24% to 62%), dealing with crime (from 44% to 54%) and protecting the environment (from 55% to 64%).

A similar situation is observed in Surrey, where the current administration has a higher ranking than the previous one on issues such as promoting tourism (from 39% to 64%), dealing with transportation (from 24% to 57%) and enhancing quality of life (from 36% to 68%).

The approval rating for the three mayors is very similar: 52% for Vancouver’s Kennedy Stewart, 51% for Burnaby’s Mike Hurley and 50% for Surrey’s Doug McCallum.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from January 2 to January 6, 2020, among 1,200 adults in Vancouver, Surrey and Burnaby. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age and gender in each municipality. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for each municipality, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Views of Canadians on Donald Trump Remain Mostly Negative

More than half of respondents think the American President has “accomplished little” since taking office.

Vancouver, BC [January 24, 2020] – As the United States gets ready for a presidential election in November, a large majority of Canadians continue to hold negative views on the current occupant of the White House, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 62% of Canadians think the presidency of Donald Trump has been “bad” or “very bad” for Canada, down three points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2019.

One-in-five Canadians (21%,+4) believe Trump’s tenure has been “very good” or “good” for Canada, while 18% (=) remain undecided.

“There is a pronounced gender gap when it comes to the perceptions of Canadians on Donald Trump,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 14% of women believe his tenure has been positive for Canada, the proportion increases to 27% among men.”

More than half of Canadians (54%, +17) believe that Trump has “accomplished little” as president, while 16% (+6) think he has “accomplished much” and 16% (-23) say it is too early to judge his achievements as president.

Albertans (24%) and Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in last year’s federal election (30%) are more likely to believe that Trump has “accomplished much” since taking office three years ago.

Three-in-ten Canadians (31%, -15) think Trump has performed “about the same” as they expected, while 16% (+8) feel he has performed “better” than they expected.” More than two-in-five Canadians (44%, +4) believe Trump has performed “worse” than they expected.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from January 6 to January 9, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians Have Favourable View of UK, Split on USA

Fewer than one-in-five Canadians have a positive opinion of Saudi Arabia, Iran and North Korea.

Vancouver, BC [January 10, 2020] – More than four-in-five Canadians hold a favourable opinion of the United Kingdom, but just under half feel the same way about the United States, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 83% of Canadians have a positive view of the United Kingdom.

At least seven-in-ten Canadians hold positive opinions on four other nations: Germany (73%), Italy (72%), Japan (also 72%) and France (70%). More than half of Canadians (52%) have a positive view of South Korea.

Canadians are split when assessing the United States, with 47% saying they have a positive opinion of the country and 48% stating they have a negative one.

Canadian men are more likely to have a positive opinion of the United States than Canadian women (50% to 42%). Canadians aged 18-to-34 are also more likely to hold favourable views on the United States (53%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (43%) and 55 and over (45%). 

“A majority of Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in last year’s federal election (64%) have a positive opinion of the United States,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The numbers are decidedly lower among Canadians who voted for the Liberals (42%) or the New Democrats (31%) last year.”

Just under half of Canadians (46%) have a positive view of Mexico, while more than a third (36%) have a positive opinion of India and three-in-ten (30%) have a favourable view of Venezuela.

Just over one-in-four Canadians have a positive opinion of China (27%) and Russia (26%), while more than three-in-five (61%) have a negative view of each country.

In the specific case of China, the proportion of positive opinions varies greatly around the country: 29% in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, 28% in Alberta, 22% in British Columbia and 17% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Fewer than one-in-five Canadians have a positive view of Saudi Arabia (17%), Iran (14%) and North Korea (11%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 18 to December 20, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Ontarians and Albertans Dismayed by Their Current Premiers

More than half of residents of each province say they would be “better off” with a different person in charge.

Vancouver, BC [January 8, 2020] – As a debate over national unity continues in Canada, a large proportion of Albertans and Ontarians are dissatisfied with their current provincial heads of government, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 52% of Canadians believe their province would be better off with a different premier in charge.

The proportion of residents who are unhappy with their provincial head of government is highest in Ontario (60%), Alberta (57%), Atlantic Canada (52%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 52%). Fewer than half of residents of Quebec (44%) and British Columbia (42%) feel the same way.

In addition, 50% of Canadians believe their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa. 

Majorities of residents of Alberta (65%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (59%), British Columbia (53%) and Ontario (51%) believe their province would be better off with someone other than Justin Trudeau in charge of the federal government. Fewer than half of those living in Atlantic Canada (48%) and Quebec (38%) concur.

One-in-four Canadians (25%) believe their province would be better off as its own country, including 40% of residents of both Alberta and Quebec. 

Separatist sentiment in Alberta has increased by 10 points since a Research Co. survey conducted in July 2019 and by six points in Quebec since a Research Co. survey conducted in October 2018.

Finally, 16% of Canadians say their province would be better off joining the U.S. and becoming an American state—a feeling that is more pronounced in Alberta (22%) and Quebec (20%).

“The level of disagreement with the notion of a province joining the United States is highest among Canadians aged 55 and over at 87%,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The numbers also amount to a majority among Canadians aged 35-to-54 (71%) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (66%).”

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 18 to December 20, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

More Than Seven-in-Ten British Columbians Endorse Housing Taxes

Almost half of residents think these actions will be effective in making housing more affordable in the province.

Vancouver, BC [January 3, 2020] – The “speculation tax” introduced by the Government of British Columbia is still backed by a sizeable proportion of the province’s residents, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 76% of British Columbians agree with the implementation of the “speculation tax” in specific urban areas targeting foreign and domestic homeowners who pay little or no income tax in BC, and those who own second properties that aren’t long-term rentals.

The survey outlines an eight-point increase in agreement with the “speculation tax” since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in March 2019.

“Agreement with this particular tax is strong among voters of all three major political parties in the province,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “It encompasses 86% for those who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) in 2017, as well as 75% of those who cast ballots for candidates from the BC Liberals and the BC Green Party.”

More than three-in-four British Columbians agree with two other policies: Increasing the foreign buyers tax from 15% to 20% (77%, -3) and expanding the foreign buyers tax to areas located outside of Metro Vanncouver (also 77%, +2).

Agreement is also strong with two other measures: increasing the property transfer tax from 3% to 5% for homes valued at more than $3 million. The 5% portion only applies to the value greater than $3 million (72%, +8) and introducing a tax of 0.2% on the value of homes between $3 million and $4 million, and a tax rate of 0.4% on the portion of a home’s value that exceeds $4 million (also 72%, +6).

Across the province, 49% of residents think the actions of the provincial government will be “effective”, in making housing more affordable in British Columbia, while 39% consider they will be ”ineffective.”

There is a pronounced regional divide on this question. While majorities of residents of Northern BC (56%) and Metro Vancouver (52%) think the provincial government’s actions will help make housing more affordable, the proportion is lower in the Fraser Valley (45%), Vancouver Island (44%) and Southern BC (40%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 12 to December 16, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Two Thirds of British Columbians Unaffected by Carbon Tax

Residents are divided on whether the goal of making people more mindful of their carbon consumption has been achieved.

Vancouver, BC [November 6, 2019] – Most British Columbians believe the provincial carbon tax—originally implemented on July 1, 2008—has not been detrimental to their domestic assets, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 66% of British Columbians believe that the provincial carbon tax has not negatively affected the finances of their household, while one-in-five (21%) think it has.

Men (28%) are more likely to believe that the carbon tax has negatively affected their household finances than women (15%). Residents aged 18-to-34 are also more likely to have an adverse opinion on this issue (26%) than those aged 35-to-54 (20%) and those aged 55 and over (15%).

When asked if they think the introduction of the carbon tax in British Columbia has led people to be more mindful of their carbon consumption, residents of the province are deeply divided.

While 45% of British Columbians believe the carbon tax has led people to change their behaviour, 44% disagree and 13% are undecided.

“Residents of Northern BC (63%) are more likely to believe that the carbon tax has made residents more mindful,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The numbers are significantly lower in the Fraser Valley (45%), Southern BC (44%), Metro Vancouver (43%) and Vancouver Island (42%).”

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 25 to October 28, 2019, among 800 adult British Columbians. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Canadian Voters Are Open to Proportional Representation

Two-in-five would welcome implementing the mixed member system for the next election to the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2019] – A significant proportion of Canadian voters would be open to conducting the next federal ballot under a different electoral system, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who cast a ballot in this year’s federal election, 51% of respondents would agree to elect all members of the House of Commons through party-list proportional representation.

Under this system, parties make lists of candidates to be elected, and seats get allocated to each party in accordance with the number of total votes the party receives.

Majorities of voters in Quebec and Alberta (58% in each province) would be open to electing their Members of Parliament this way. Party-list proportional representation would also be endorsed by 59% of voters aged 18-to-34.

Views on the mixed member proportional representation system are more nuanced, with 39% of Canadian voters agreeing with its implementation for elections to the House of Commons. Just under three-in-ten (28%) disagree and a 33% are undecided.

Under this system, a hybrid method is utilized with the first-past-the-post system for a portion of the legislature, and party-list proportional representation for a another.

Respondents were also asked how they would have voted if the most recent Canadian election had been held under each one of these systems.

In an election held with party-list proportional representation, the Conservative Party would have finished in first place with the support of 33% of decided voters, followed by the Liberal Party with 32%, the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18%, the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois each with 6%, and the People’s Party with 4%.

“While the level of support does not change dramatically for the five parties that will be represented in the incoming House of Commons under the party-list proportional representation system, there are some differences,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support for the Liberals is slightly higher in British Columbia than it was on Election Day, and in Ontario, the Conservatives would fare significantly better.”

When asked who would get their party vote under a mixed member proportional representation system, a third of decided voters (34%) would support the Liberal list, followed by the Conservatives with 31%, the New Democrats with 17%, the Greens with 7%, the Bloc with 6% and the People’s Party with 3%.

In a mixed member election, Liberals and Conservatives would retain practically nine-in-ten of their voters under the first-past-the-post system for the other portion of the legislature.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 20 to October 21, 2019, among 803 adults in Canada who voted in the federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Canadian Voters “Happy” With Liberal Minority Scenario

Most voters would welcome an alliance or agreement involving the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [October 22, 2019] – Canadian voters who participated in the 43rd federal election are divided in their assessment of the incoming House of Commons, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who cast a ballot in this year’s federal election, 49% of voters say they are happy with the expected outcome of the democratic process: a minority government led by the Liberal Party. A similar proportion of Canadian voters (45%) are “upset” with this scenario.

“Voters aged 18-to-34 (52%) are more content with the outcome of the election than those aged 35-to-54 (46%) and those aged 55 and over (47%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of Quebecers (57%) and Atlantic Canadians (56%) are also happy with the prospect of a minority Liberal government, while 55% of Albertans and 52% of residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are upset.”

More than half of Canadian voters (56%) said they would be “happy” if the New Democratic Party (NDP) is included in an alliance or agreement to support another party in the House of Commons.

A smaller proportion of Canadian voters (47%) would welcome a similar role for the Green Party in the lower house. Conversely, only 20% of Canadian voters would be “happy” with the Bloc Québécois participating in any alliance or agreement in the House of Commons. 

Canadian voters were also asked about the possibility of uniting the centre-left parties. The most popular proposal is a formal merger between the Liberal Party and the NDP, which would make 46% of Canadians “happy”—including 69% of Liberal voters and 73% of NDP voters.

Possible mergers involving other combinations are not as popular, including one with Liberals, New Democrats and the Green Party (43%), one with New Democrats and Greens (37%), and one with Liberals and Greens (36%).

In addition, 71% of Canadian voters believe that the party that wins the most seats should form the government—a proportion that includes 84% of Conservative voters and 72% of Liberal voters.

Two thirds of Canadian voters (67%) believed it was time for a change of government in Canada. This sentiment is highest in two regions where the Conservative Party was particularly popular this year: Alberta (83%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (77%).

One third of Canadian voters (32%) say they cast a ballot for a candidate that was not their first choice, but that they perceived as having the best chance to defeat a party that they really do not like in their constituency.

Canadian voters aged 18-to-34 appear to have voted strategically (43%) more often than those aged 35-to-54 (30%) and those aged 55 and over (25%). On a regional basis, more than a third of Quebecers (36%) and Atlantic Canadians (42%) cast their ballot this way.

While the main motivator for Canadian voters was the party’s ideas and policies (27%), there are some differences among the federal parties.

About one-in-five Liberal voters (19%) and Bloc Québécois voters (22%) were primarily motivated by the party’s leader. Conservative voters had desire for change (17%) and disgust with other candidates (16%) as bigger influences, and 15% of New Democrat voters were motivated by the candidate in their riding.

A majority of Conservative voters (61%) think Andrew Scheer should remain as leader of the party. 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 20 to October 21, 2019, among 803 adults in Canada who voted in the federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Grits and Tories Are in Statistical Tie Ahead of Canadian Election

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh closes the campaign with the highest approval rating and momentum score of all federal leaders.

Vancouver, BC [October 20, 2019] – A jump in voter support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois has affected the fortunes of Canada’s two major political parties on the eve of the country’s federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of decided voters (-4 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late September) would cast a ballot for the Liberal Party’s contender in their constituency.

The Conservative Party remains a close second with 31% (-2), followed by the NDP with 19% (+4), the Green Party with 8% (-1), the Bloc with 7% (+2) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

“In September, the Liberals enjoyed a six-point lead among female decided voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now, partly due to a surge in support for the New Democrats, the governing party is practically tied with the Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the Conservative Party continues to dominate in Alberta (61%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%). In both Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Liberal Party is in first place (39% and 34% respectively).

An extremely close race developed in British Columbia, with each of the three major parties garnering the support of more than a quarter of decided voters, with the Greens at 14%.

In Quebec, where the Liberals had a 14-point advantage over the Bloc in September, the election has also tightened considerably. The Liberals now stand at 34% (-3), while the Bloc has jumped to 32% (+9)

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh heads to tomorrow’s election with the highest approval rating of all leaders at 57% (up 15 points since late September).

The numbers held steady for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, unchanged) and Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, also unchanged). 

The approval rating for incumbent Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau improved by three points to 44%, while his disapproval numbers dropped by the same margin to 51%. 

The lowest ranked leader is once again Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (18%, +1).

Singh is the only party leader to post a positive momentum score (+20), with almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) saying their opinion of the NDP leader has improved since the start of the campaign.

Bernier has the lowest momentum score (-25), with Trudeau at -24,  Scheer at -21 and May at -5.

When asked which one of the main party leaders would make the “Best Prime Minister”, Trudeau remains in first place with 30% (-3), followed by Scheer with 23% (-1) and Singh with 21% (+8). The other contenders are in single digits.

Trudeau holds a nine-point edge over Scheer on the “Best Prime Minister” question among men (33% to 24%) and a six-point lead among women (28% to 22%). 

Singh gets his best numbers on this question with women (26%, just two points behind Trudeau) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (32%, eight points ahead of Trudeau).

About one-in-four Canadians (24%, +3) think the economy and jobs is the top issue facing Canada, followed by the environment (20%, -2), health care (also 20%, +2) and housing, homelessness and poverty (16%, -1).

The way Canada’s regions feel about issues did not go through any radical shifts since late September. Housing, homelessness and poverty is still most pressing concern for British Columbians (28%), while the environment is especially important for Quebecers (31%).

As was the case last month, health care is the top issue in Atlantic Canada (36%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (22%), while the economy and jobs takes precedence in Alberta (37%) and Ontario (27%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 18 to October 20, 2019, among 957 Canadian adults, including 890 decided voters in the 2019 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals and Conservatives Gain in Canadian Federal Campaign

Justin Trudeau holds a nine-point advantage over Andrew Scheer in the “Best Prime Minister” question.

Vancouver, BC [September 28, 2019] – The two main federal parties in Canada increased their level of voter support over the past couple of months, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 36% of decided voters (+2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in July) would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their riding in next month’s federal election.

The Conservative Party remains in second place with 33% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% (-2), the Green Party with 9% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 5% (+1) and the People’s Party with 2% (-1).

The two main parties hold the same level of support among male decided voters (36% for each), while the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives among women (36% to 30%).

Voters aged 18-to-34 currently prefer the Liberals (35%, with the Conservatives at 22% and the NDP at 20%). The Liberals are barely ahead among voters aged 35-to-54 (36% to 34%), while the Tories hold the same edge among voters aged 55 and over (38% to 36%).

“The Conservatives are keeping more than four-in-five decided voters (84%) who supported the party in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is not as respectable at this point for the NDP (71%) and the Liberals (68%).”

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau remains at 41%, with more than half of Canadians (54%, +4) disapproving of his performance.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh improved his standing by seven points and is now at 42%. The approval rating is higher for Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, +2) and lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, +2). Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party dropped to 17% (-4).

Trudeau posted the lowest momentum score at -34, with 46% of Canadians saying their opinion of the incumbent prime minister has worsened since the start of the campaign. Bernier (-24) and Scheer (-17) also had negative numbers. Singh is the only leader with a positive momentum score (+3), while May is even.

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Trudeau is first with 33%, followed by Scheer with 24%, Singh with 13% and May with 9%.

The environment is now the top issue facing Canada at 22% (+6), followed by the economy and jobs (21%, +2), health care (18%, -1) and housing, homelessness and poverty (17%, +4).

Health care is identified as the top issue in Atlantic Canada (33%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%), while the environment is top among Quebecers (33%). Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter for British Columbians (24%), while the economy and jobs is first in Alberta (38%) and Ontario (23%).

Trudeau is the preferred leader to handle foreign affairs (32%)  health care (28%), and housing, homelessness and poverty (25%). May is clearly ahead on the environment (28%, with Trudeau at 21%)

The Liberal and Conservative leaders are tied or virtually even on four issues: crime and public safety (Scheer 26%, Trudeau 25%), economy and jobs (Trudeau 28%, Scheer 27%), energy and pipelines (Trudeau 25%, Scheer 25%) and accountability and leadership (Scheer 25%, Trudeau 24%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 24 to September 26, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Assess Pro-Democracy Protests in Hong Kong

Two-in-five residents of the province want Ottawa to support the protesters, while one third would not get involved.

Vancouver, BC [September 25, 2019] – Most British Columbians have been paying attention to the current unrest in Hong Kong, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians, 53% of respondents say they have followed the protests against the “extradition bill” in Hong Kong “very closely” or “moderately closely.”

British Columbians who were born in, have lived in or have travelled to Hong Kong are significantly more likely to be paying attention to the current unrest (81%) than those who have no ties to the region (40%).

When asked what the position of the Canadian government should be in this situation, two-in-five British Columbians (39%) believe Ottawa should “definitely” or “probably” support the protesters in Hong Kong.

Conversely, a third of British Columbians (34%) would prefer for the federal government to avoid getting involved, while only 6% want Ottawa to support the Chinese government.

“British Columbians aged 55 and over are more likely to call for the federal government to do nothing in this case (45%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion falls to 29% among those aged 35-to-54 and 25% among those aged 18-to-34.”

More than three-in-five British Columbians (62%) believe Hong Kong would be better off today if it had remained under the administration of the United Kingdom—a proportion that rises to 68% among those who have ties to the region, 72% among those aged 55 and over and 76% among residents of Southern BC.

Half of British Columbians (49%) are worried that the current situation will lead to many residents of Hong Kong relocating to British Columbia, including 52% of those aged 35-to-54 and 61% of those who reside in the Fraser Valley.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 11 to September 14, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: Studio Incendo

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

Health care remains the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives are still in first place as voters in Manitoba prepare to participate in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 44% of decided voters (-2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late August) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains in second place with 31% (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 16% (+2) and the Green Party with 7% (-1).

The Progressive Conservatives hold their best numbers with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%) and men (50%). The New Democrats are ahead among voters aged 18-to-34 (33%).

While the race is tied in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (34% for each of the two main contending parties), the Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead in the rest of the province (55%, with the NDP at 28%).

“Practically four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (79%) say they will not change their mind before casting their ballot,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This proportion includes 84% of those who are planning to support the governing Progressive Conservatives.”

Three-in-ten Manitobans (30%, -4) believe incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister would make the best head of government for the province.

NDP and Official Opposition leader Wab Kinew is second with 19% (+2), followed by Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party with 16% (+6) and James Beddome of the Green Party with 8% (+4). More than one-in-four of the province’s residents (27%, -7) are undecided on this question.

Health care (38%, -10) remains the most important issue facing the province for Manitobans, followed by the economy and jobs (19%, +8), crime and public safety (10%, -4) and the environment (9%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 6 to September 9, 2019 among 536 Manitoba adults, including 483 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.5 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Support Mandatory Voting in Federal Elections

More than seven-in-ten residents think most federal politicians have to follow the party line and have little to no autonomy.

Vancouver, BC [August 30, 2019] – A majority of residents of British Columbia believe all eligible voters in the province should cast ballots in elections to the House of Commons, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians, 57% of residents think “voting should be mandatory in Canadian federal elections”, while 33% disagree and 7% are undecided.

“Public support for compulsory voting in British Columbia is lowest among residents aged 18-to-34 (49%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Members of Generation X (61%) and Baby Boomers (60%) are more likely to agree with this idea.”

Across the province, 72% of British Columbians believe “most federal politicians have to follow the party line and have little to no autonomy”, a proportion that rises to 84% among residents aged 55 and over.

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (58%) agree with the statement: “There is currently no federal political party that truly represents my views”.

Only two-in-five British Columbians (40%) believe “most federal politicians are trying to do the right thing.” While 49% of those aged 55 and over agree with this statement, only 41% of those aged 35-to-54 and 27% of those aged 18-to-34 concur. 

Fewer than one-in-four British Columbians (24%) believe most federal politicians actually care about what happens to “people like me”.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 7 to August 10, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians and Americans Praise Leaders for Job Creation

On this file, Conservative voters in Canada are more critical of Justin Trudeau than Democrats are of Donald Trump.

Vancouver, BC [August 9, 2019] – Most Canadians and Americans believe their current heads of government should be lauded for job creation, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 60% of Canadians think Prime Minister Justin Trudeau deserves “all of the credit” (12%) or “some of the credit” (48%) for the country’s low unemployment rate.

On a regional basis, Canadians who reside in Quebec (65%), British Columbia (63%) and Ontario (61%) are more likely to believe that Trudeau deserves “all” or “some” of the credit for Canada’s unemployment rate, followed by Atlantic Canada (56%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (55%) and Alberta (42%).

In the United States, 57% of Americans believe President Donald Trump deserves “all of the credit” (12%) or “some of the credit” (45%) for the country’s low unemployment rate.

In the United States, residents of the Midwest (63%) are more likely to believe that Trump deserves “all” or “some” of the credit for the country’s unemployment rate, followed by those in the Northeast (58%), the South (56%) and the West (55%).

“In Canada, only 37% of respondents who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2015 federal election are willing to praise Trudeau for the current employment situation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In the United States, the proportion of Democrats who feel the same way about Trump reaches 50%.”

The proportion of residents who believe the head of government deserves “none of the credit” for the low unemployment rate is significantly higher in the United States (26%) than in Canada (16%).

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from July 2 to July 5, 2019, among representative samples of 1,000 adults Canada and the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian and U.S. census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for each country.

Find our full data set for Canada here, full data set for the United States here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca