Biden Will Capture Popular Vote Win in U.S. Presidential Election

Almost three-in-five decided female voters in the United States would support, or have voted for, the Democratic nominee.

Vancouver, BC [November 2, 2020] – Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden stands to win a majority of the votes cast in the United States presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 53% of decided voters would vote for Biden tomorrow or have already done so—unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-October.

Republican incumbent Donald Trump is a distant second with 44%. Support is lower for both Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party (1%) and Howie Hawkins of the Green Party (also 1%).

While Trump is barely ahead among male decided voters (48% to 47%), Biden holds a 20-point advantage among female decided voters (59% to 39%). 

Biden holds large leads among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (53% to 42%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (54% to 44%). The race is closer among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (Biden 50%, Trump 47%). 

“More than half of decided voters who identify as Independent (54%) will support Biden in the presidential election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is 13 points behind (41%) among this group.”

Sizeable majorities of decided voters in the Northeast (59%) and the West (59%) are voting for Biden. The Democratic nominee holds a three-point edge in the Midwest (50% to 47%), while Trump leads by the same margin in the South (50% to 47%).

The race remains tight among White decided voters (50% for Biden, 48% for Trump), while Biden is still ahead among African Americans (88%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (61%).

Only 29% of decided voters who watch Fox News will support Biden in the election. The Democratic nominee fares better among decided voters who get their news from CNN (70%) and MSNBC/CNBC (88%).

The primary motivation for decided voters in the United States (43%) continues to be the candidate’s ideas and policies, followed by a desire for stability (17%), the candidate’s political party (14%), disgust with other candidates (also 14%) and a desire for change (13%).

The approval rating for Donald Trump on the eve of the election stands at 46%, up three points since mid-October. More than half of Americans (52%, -2) disapprove of his performance as president.

The groups that provide the highest marks to Trump are men (51%), Americans aged 35-to-54 (49%), residents of the South (52%) and Fox News watchers (72%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 31 to November 2, 2020, among 1,100 American adults, including 1,025 likely voters in the United States and 974 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.9 percentage points for American adults, +/- 3.0 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.1 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Set to Flip in U.S. Election

Ohio remains too close to call, while there is little danger for the Democrats in Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey and New York.

Vancouver, BC [November 2, 2020] – Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds the upper hand over Republican incumbent Donald Trump in the crucial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as American voters prepare to cast ballots in the United States presidential election, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in eight states.

The surveys of Americans who have already participated in the democratic process or plan to do so tomorrow also outline a tight race in Ohio, and give Biden the lead in Illinois, New Jersey, Minnesota and New York. 

Four Democrats who are seeking to retain their seats in the U.S. Senate are also ahead of their Republican rivals.

Illinois

No Republican nominee has carried the Prairie State since George H. W. Bush in 1988. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in Illinois with 55% of the vote. 

Biden holds a 19-point advantage over Trump among decided voters in Illinois (59% to 40%). Decided voters aged 18-to-34 prefer Biden over Trump by a 2-to-1 margin (66% to 32%).

In the election to the U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin holds a significant lead over GOP challenger Mark Curran (60% to 35%).

Michigan

Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)

Biden heads to Election Day with an eight-point advantage over the Republican incumbent in Michigan (53% to 45%). Independent decided voters in Michigan are more likely to support Biden (49%) than Trump (44%).

Incumbent U.S. Senator Gary Peters is ahead of Republican candidate John James by six points (52% to 46%).

Minnesota

The last Republican nominee to carry the North Star State was Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton defeated Trump by 44,593 votes to secure Minnesota for the Democrats in 2016 (46.4% to 44.9%).

Biden is ahead of Trump by nine points (54% to 45%). The Democratic nominee holds a higher level of support among female decided voters (61%) than among their male counterparts (47%).

Democratic U.S. Senator Tina Smith—who won a Special Election in 2018—stands to earn a full six-year term, with a 13-point advantage over Republican candidate Jason Lewis (55% to 42%).

New Jersey

No Republican nominee has emerged victorious in the Garden State since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Four years ago, Clinton carried New Jersey with 55% of the vote.

Biden currently leads Trump by 19 points (59% to 40%) and can count on the support of 54% of decided voters who identify as Independent.

In the race for the U.S. Senate seat, incumbent Democrat Cory Booker is ahead of Republican rival Rik Mehta by 26 points (62% to 36%).

New York

In the last 10 presidential elections, only Ronald Reagan has been able to carry the Empire State for the Republican Party in 1980 and 1984. In 2016, Clinton won New York with 59% of the vote.

Biden is ahead of Trump by a sizeable margin (64% to 34%). Practically three-in-four female voters in New York (73%) will cast a ballot for Biden or have already done so.

Ohio

The Buckeye State has given its electoral votes to the winner of every presidential election held in the United States since 1964. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by eight points (51% to 43%)

Biden and Trump are tied among decided voters in Ohio (49% and 49%). There is a higher level of undecided voters among women (6%) than among men (2%).

Pennsylvania

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush in 1988, defeating Clinton by 44,292 votes (48.2% to 47.5%).

Biden holds a six-point edge over Trump in Pennsylvania (52% to 46%). More than half of men (54%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (52%) intend to support the Republican nominee or have already cast a ballot for him.

Wisconsin

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, defeating Clinton by 22,748 votes 47.2% to 46.5%).

Biden is ahead of Trump by nine points in Wisconsin (54% to 45%). Support for the Democratic nominee is strongest among women (58%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (also 58%).

Methodology:
Results are based on online studies conducted on October 31 and November 1, 2020, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in eight American states: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbia Voters Satisfied with NDP and Green Campaigns

A majority of voters in the province say they would have been “very upset” if the BC Liberals had formed the government again.

Vancouver, BC [October 30, 2020] – A majority of British Columbians who cast ballots in this year’s provincial election commend the campaigns of two contending political parties, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbian voters, 59% describe the campaign of the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) as “positive”, while 28% brand it as “negative”.

Just over half of voters (53%) believe the campaign of the BC Green Party was “positive”, while 25% deem it “negative.”

The results are different for the BC Liberals. While two-in-five voters (41%) think the BC Liberal campaign was “positive”, 46% describe it as “negative.”

More than half of British Columbian voters (55%) say they would have been “very upset” if the BC Liberals had formed the government again. Majorities of voters in Vancouver Island (65%), the Fraser Valley (59%) and Metro Vancouver (55%) feel this way, along with 45% of voters in Southern BC and 38% of those in Northern BC.

About two-in-five British Columbian voters (39%) say they would have supported the BC Liberals in the most recent election if Dianne Watts had been their leader—a proportion that rises to 42% among women, 44% among voters aged 18-to-34 and 43% in both Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

Across British Columbia, 38% of voters think the BC NDP and the BC Green Party should consider a formal merger into a single provincial political party. This idea is more popular among those aged 18-to-34 (48%) and those who voted for the BC NDP this year (46%) but is only supported by 30% of BC Green voters and 19% of those who reside in Vancouver Island.

The notion of a merger between the BC Liberals and the BC Conservative Party is supported by 34% of voters—but climbs to 62% among those who cast a ballot for BC Liberal candidates this month.

A comparison of voting behaviour shows that 42% of BC NDP voters in 2020 cast a ballot for the federal NDP in the 2019 federal contest. 

“Liberal Party voters at the federal level were almost evenly split between the BC Liberals (31%) and the BC NDP (25%) at the provincial level,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, three-in-five Conservative Party voters in the last federal election (60%) were BC Liberal voters in 2020.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 22 to October 25, 2020, among 832 adult British Columbians who voted in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Saskatchewan Party Keeps Sizeable Edge in Provincial Election

More than three-in-five likely voters in the province approve of the way Premier Scott Moe has handled his duties

Vancouver, BC [October 25, 2020] – The Saskatchewan Party remains ahead of all challengers in the Prairie Province’s election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 56% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Saskatchewan Party candidate in their constituency or have already done so in Advance Voting or through the mail, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted earlier this month.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 38%, up two points since the start of the campaign. There was no movement for the other contending parties, with the Green Party at 2%, the Progressive Conservative Party also at 2%, the Liberal Party at 1% and the Buffalo Party also at 1%.

On a regional basis, the New Democrats have a four-point edge over the Saskatchewan Party in Regina among decided voters (50% to 46%). The Saskatchewan Party leads in Saskatoon (53% to 42%) and in the rest of the province (68% to 23%).

About one-in-five decided voters who will be casting their ballot tomorrow in Saskatchewan (18%) say they may change their mind about which party or candidate to support, while 82% are certain of their choice.

At the end of the campaign, almost half of decided voters in Saskatchewan (47%) acknowledge that their main motivation is a party’s ideas and policies. The party’s leader is a distant second with 24%, followed by a desire for change (10%), the party’s candidate in the riding (9%), a desire for stability (7%) and disgust with other contending candidates (3%).

More than three-in-five likely voters (61%, -4) approve of the performance of Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe, while one third (33%, +5) disapprove. 

The rating for Official Opposition and NDP leader Ryan Meili improved by three points to 48%. The numbers are significantly lower for Green leader Naomi Hunter (22%), Progressive Conservative leader Ken Grey (17%), Liberal leader Robert Rudachyk (16%) and Buffalo leader Wade Sira (15%).

The leaders of Saskatchewan’s two main parties reach the end of the campaign with a negative momentum score: -9 for Moe (17% say their opinion of the incumbent premier has improved, while 26% say it has worsened) and -4 for Meilli (23% say their opinion of the opposition leader has improved, while 27% say it has worsened).

On the “Best Premier” question, Moe remains in first place with 51% (+2), followed by Meilli with 29% (+8). The other party leaders are in single digits.

As was the case at the start of the campaign, more than a third of likely voters (35%, =) say the economy and jobs is the most important issue facing Saskatchewan, followed by heath care (31%, +3), crime and public safety (7%, +2), housing, poverty and homelessness (also 7%, +2) and COVID-19 (also 7%, +2).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 23 to October 25, 2020, among 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 456 decided voters in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

New Democrats Headed for Outright Victory in British Columbia

Almost half of likely voters in the province pick John Horgan as the best person to head the provincial government.

Vancouver, BC [October 23, 2020] – The BC New Democratic Party (NDP) stands to make significant gains in British Columbia’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 50% of decided voters in British Columbia would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their constituency or have already done so in Advance Voting or through the mail. This represents a two-point increase for the New Democrats since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in early October.

The BC Liberals remain in second place with 35%, followed by the BC Green Party with 13% and the BC Conservative Party with 2%.  

The New Democrats maintain a nine-point lead over the BC Liberals among decided male voters (48% to 39%) and have a 21-point advantage among decided female voters (52% to 31%).

The BC NDP is also ahead of the main opposition party among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (54% to 29%), decided voters aged 35-to-54 (49% to 36%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (47% to 40%).

Only 11% of decided voters who will be casting their ballot tomorrow say they may change their mind about which party or candidate to support, while 89% are certain of their choice.

Almost half of decided voters in British Columbia (47%) say a party’s ideas and policies is the main motivator for their choice in this provincial election. This includes 66% of BC Green voters and 51% of BC NDP voters, but just 37% of those who will support the BC Liberals.

Other factors cited by decided voters are the party’s leader (22%), the party’s candidate in the riding (11%), a desire for stability (9%), a desire for change (7%) and disgust with other contending candidates (4%).

On the eve of the election, more than three-in-five likely voters (62%, -3) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan is handling his duties, while 33% disapprove.

There was no change in the approval rating for BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson since early October (40%), while BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau improved markedly to 46% (+13).

Furstenau posts a momentum score of +13 (27% of likely voters say their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign, while 14% say it has worsened). The numbers are also in positive territory for Horgan (+2), while Wilkinson’s score is -21 (with 36% of likely voters reporting a worsening opinion of the BC Liberals leader).

When asked who would make the best premier of the province, Horgan remains on top with the endorsement of almost half of likely voters (48%, +1), followed by Wilkinson with 24% (-3) and Furstenau with 12% (+6).

While 81% of likely voters who supported the BC NDP in the 2017 ballot feel Horgan is the best person to act as British Columbia’s head of government, only 53% of BC Liberal voters in the last election feel the same way about Wilkinson.

The issue landscape did not shift dramatically in the final week of the campaign. One-in-four likely voters (25%, =) say the economy and jobs is their main preoccupation right now, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, -2) and health care (also 23%, =). 

Fewer likely voters mentioned COVID-19 (13%, +5), the environment (7%, =), crime and public safety (4%, =), education (2%, +1), accountability (1%, -2), and energy (also 1%, +1) as the top issue facing the province.

As has been the case throughout the past five weeks, likely voters aged 18-to-34 are more likely to be concerned about housing, homelessness and poverty (33%), while those aged 35-to-54 gravitate towards the economy and jobs (29%) and those aged 55 and over select health care (28%).

At least two-in-five likely voters pick Horgan over Wilkinson as the best party leader to handle health care (49% to 22%), the economy and jobs (43% to 31%), education (42% to 22%), housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 22%) and accountability (40% to 25%), 

On the issue of handling the COVID-19 pandemic, likely voters in British Columbia choose Horgan over Wilkinson by a 3-to-1 margin (53% to 17%). The incumbent premier is also ahead of the opposition leader on two other matters: crime and public safety (38% to 30%) and energy (32% to 25%). 

Furstenau extended her lead as the best leader to manage the environment (44%, +11), with Horgan at 24% and Wilkinson at 14%.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted on October 22 and October 23, 2020, among 750 likely voters in British Columbia, including 705 decided voters in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.7 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by Adi kavazovic

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Steady National Lead for Biden as United States Election Nears

The main influences for American likely voters are party platforms, discussions with family and discussions with friends.

Vancouver, BC [October 21, 2020] – Joe Biden stands to capture a majority of the national vote in this year’s presidential election in the United States, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 53% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Democratic Party nominee or have already done so, while 45% would support Republican Party incumbent Donald Trump.

Support for both Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party and Howie Hawkins of the Green Party remains at 1%.

The popular vote forecast is practically unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in September.

Biden holds 19-point leads over Trump among female decided voters (57% to 38%) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (58% to 37%). The race is closer among male decided voters (50% to 48%), decided voters aged 35-to-54 (51% to 46%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (52% to 47%).

White decide voters are evenly split among the two main candidates(48% for Biden, 48% for Trump), while the level of support for the Democratic nominee is higher with Hispanic / Latino decided voters (58%) and African American decided voters (92%).

Across the country, 11% of decided voters who supported Trump in the 2016 presidential election are voting for Biden this year. Only 3% of decided voters who backed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 are casting a ballot for Trump in 2020.

Almost two-in-five likely voters in the United States (39%) say their primary motivation when selecting who to back in the presidential election is the candidate’s ideas and policies, followed by the candidate’s political party (20%), a desire for stability (15%), disgust with other candidates (14%) and a desire for change (13%).

More than half of likely voters believe Biden is the best candidate to handle five issues: the environment (54%), race relations (53%), health care (52%), education (51%) and COVID-19 (also 51%).

The former Vice President holds the upper hand over the current President on nine other topics: government accountability (Biden 49%, Trump 34%), foreign policy (Biden 48%, Trump 38%), immigration (Biden 48%, Trump 38%), job creation (Biden 47%, Trump 41%), crime (Biden 46%, Trump 37%), the economy (Biden 45%, Trump 42%), managing the deficit (Biden 44%, Trump 35%), energy and oil (Biden 44%, Trump 39%) and national defense (Biden 44%, Trump 42%). 

Almost two thirds of likely voters in the United States (64%) say party platforms are “very influential” or “moderately influential” in their decision to support candidates in this year’s election, while 51% mention discussions with family and 48% mention cite discussions with friends.

Fewer American likely voters are swayed by endorsements from non-governmental organizations (44%), campaign ads on radio and television (43%), endorsements from unions (40%), endorsements from trade associations (39%), interaction with candidates on social media (also 39%), interaction with other people on social media (38%) and endorsements from newspapers (also 38%).

“More than half of Republican likely voters (54%) say campaign ads on radio and television are influential in their decision to support candidates,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower among Democrats (45%) and Independents (28%).”

Sizeable majorities of American likely voters express confidence in the people responsible for conducting elections in their state being able to oversee the entire process (83%), enforce social distancing at polling stations (82%) and ensure that there is no fraudulent activity with mailed ballots (78%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 16 to October 18, 2020, among 1,035 likely voters in the United States and 973 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.0 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.1 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Americans Divided on What’s Next in COVID-19 Pandemic

Satisfaction with how various levels of government have handled the situation has increased since September.

Vancouver, BC [October 19, 2020] – Adults in the United States are split in their assessment of the future during the COVD-19 pandemic, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 44% of Americans believe the worst of the pandemic has been left “behind”, while 43% think it is still “ahead.”

“Most Americans aged 55 and over (56%) believe the worst of COVID-19 lies ahead,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower among those aged 18-to-34 (32%) and those aged 35-to-54 (33%).”

Practically seven-in-ten Americans (69%) are satisfied with the way their local government has dealt with the COVID-19 outbreak, up 13 points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in September

The level of satisfaction also improved for state governments (65%, +9) and for the federal government (45%, +6). 

Americans who voted for Republican Party nominee Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election are more likely to be satisfied with the way the federal government has handled the pandemic (78%) than those who cast a ballot for Democratic Party contender Hillary Clinton (22%).

The approval rating for President Trump stands at 43% this month (-1), with 54% of Americans (-1) saying they disapprove of his performance.

There is a significant gender gap when it comes to public perceptions of the president. While 52% of men approve of the way Trump has handled his duties, only 36% of women concur.

In addition, while 48% of White Americans are satisfied with Trump’s performance, the rating drops to 28% among Hispanic / Latino Americans and 13% among African Americans.

Nine-in-ten Americans (90%, unchanged since September) agree with requiring all customers or visitors entering an indoor premise to wear a mask or face covering while inside, while only 8% disagree (+1) and 2% (-1) are undecided.

Three-in-five Americans (61%, -5) say they would take a vaccine against COVID-19 if one ultimately becomes available, while 26% (+4) would not follow this course of action.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 16 to October 18, 2020, among 1,100 American adults.  The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most British Columbians Would Welcome Online Voting Option

More than three-in-five likely voters think Elections BC should consider this possibility before the next provincial ballot.

Vancouver, BC [October 12, 2020] – A sizeable proportion of likely voters in British Columbia would like to explore the option of participating in the democratic process through the internet, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 63% of likely voters in British Columbia think Elections BC—the non-partisan office of the legislature responsible for conducting provincial and local elections—should “definitely” or “probably” consider allowing voters to cast their ballots online in the next provincial election.

The possibility of online voting is backed by majorities of likely voters who supported the BC Green Party (54%), the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (60%) and the BC Liberals (70%) in the 2017 election.

Across the province, 43% of likely voters say they intend to vote in this year’s election by mail, up 14 points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in late September. In addition, 25% (-3) will cast a ballot in person on Election Day and 23% (-4) plan to do so during Advance Voting.

Practically one-in-five mail voters (19%) have already sent their ballot back to Elections BC. More than a third (35%) have requested a ballot but have not received it, 18% possess a ballot but have not voted yet, and 28% intend to request one.

More than nine-in-ten likely voters in British Columbia (93%, +3) express confidence in Elections BC being able to oversee the entire voting process this year. Confidence increased on Elections BC’s ability to ensure that there is no fraudulent activity with mailed ballots (87%, +5) and to enforce social distancing at polling stations (86%, +12).

When likely voters are asked what influences their choice in this election, more than two thirds (69%) mention party platforms. Slightly lower proportions of likely voters say discussions with family (52%) and friends (46%) are also persuasive.

Fewer than a third of likely voters in the province are swayed by interactions with candidates on social media (30%), endorsements from non-governmental organizations (also 30%), campaign ads on radio and television (29%), interactions with other people on social media (27%), or endorsements from unions (26%), trade associations (25%) and newspapers (23%).

This week’s televised debate will feature the leaders of the BC New Democratic Party (NDP), the BC Liberals and the BC Green Party. Fewer than half of likely voters believe other parties should be included in this debate.

While 41% of likely voters want to hear from the BC Conservative Party during the televised debate, fewer would extend an invitation to the BC Libertarian Party (35%), the Rural BC Party (22%), BC Vision (19%), the Christian Heritage Party (also 19%), the Communist Party (16%) and Wexit BC (also 16%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 5 to October 7, 2020, among 750 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Saskatchewan Party Ahead of NDP in Provincial Election

Practically half of likely voters in the province say Scott Moe is their preferred leader to serve as head of government.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2020] – The Saskatchewan Party holds a sizeable advantage in the electoral campaign currently underway in the Prairie Province, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 58% of decided voters in Saskatchewan would cast a ballot for the candidate of the governing party in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 36%, followed by the Green Party with 2%, the Progressive Conservative Party also with 2%, the Liberal Party with 1% and the Buffalo Party also with 1%.

The race is currently tight in Regina, where the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP are virtually tied among decided voters (49% and 47% respectively). The governing party is ahead in Saskatoon (54% to 41%) and in the rest of the province (65% to 25%).

Practically four-in-five decided voters in Saskatchewan (79%) say they are certain of their current choice, while 21% say they may change their mind before Election Day on Oct. 26.

The primary motivation for decided voters in Saskatchewan is a party’s ideas and policies (38%), followed by the party’s leader (32%), the candidate in the riding (10%), a desire for stability (also 10%), a desire for change (7%) and disgust with other contending candidates (3%).

“Decided voters who plan to support the Saskatchewan Party are more likely to say that their main motivation is the leader (41%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, those who plan to cast a ballot for the NDP are more likely to cite ideas and policies (42%).”

Almost two thirds of the province’s likely voters (65%) are satisfied with the way Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe has handled his duties, while 28% are not and 7% are undecided.

Likely voters are divided in their assessment of Official Opposition and NDP leader Ryan Meili (Approve 45%, Disapprove 44%). The rating is lower for Progressive Conservative leader Ken Grey (35%), Green leader Naomi Hunter (32%), Liberal leader Robert Rudachyk (31%) and Buffalo leader Wade Sira (25%).

On the “Best Premier” question, Moe holds a commanding lead over Meili (49% to 21%). The other four party leaders are in single digits.

More than a third of likely voters in Saskatchewan (35%) believe the economy and jobs is the most important issue facing the province, followed by heath care (28%), the environment (8%) and crime and public safety (5%).

Moe holds the upper hand over Meili as the best leader to handle eight issues: energy (46% to 19%), the economy and jobs (45% to 24%), crime and public safety (42% to 19%), accountability (41% to 22%), the environment (40% to 19%), health care (39% to 30%), education (39% to 24%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (38% to 23%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 8 to October 10, 2020, among 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 447 decided voters in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by Tintaggon.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Lead for New Democratic Party Increases in British Columbia

John Horgan is ahead of Andrew Wilkinson as the best leader to handle the five most important issues for voters in the province.

Vancouver, BC [October 8, 2020] – The BC New Democratic Party (NDP) has extended its advantage in British Columbia’s provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 48% of decided voters in British Columbia would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, up four points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in late September.

The BC Liberals remain in second place with 36% (-1), followed by the BC Green Party with 13% (=) and the BC Conservative Party with 2% (-3). 

The BC NDP holds a nine-point edge over the BC Liberals among decided male voters (47% to 38%) and a 16-point lead among decided female voters (49% to 33%).

The New Democrats are also ahead of the BC Liberals among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (45% to 31%), decided voters aged 35-to-54 (46% to 33) and decided voters aged 55 and over (44% to 34%).

Just under one-in-four decided voters (23%) say they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the election scheduled for Oct. 24. Supporters of the BC Liberals and the BC NDP are less likely to consider a switch (15% and 20% respectively) than those who plan to vote for the BC Greens (29%).

When asked about the main factor that motivates their selection, 43% of decided voters cite the party’s ideas and policies, while 21% focus mostly on the party’s leader and 14% concentrate on the party’s candidate in the riding. Fewer decided voters in British Columbia are swayed by a desire for stability (11%), a desire for change (10%) or disgust with other contending candidates (4%).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan stands at 65% (-1). The numbers are lower for BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson (40%, +1) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (33%, -4).

Horgan’s campaign momentum is balanced, with 24% of likely voters in British Columbia saying their opinion of him has improved and 24% stating that it has worsened. In contrast, Wilkinson has a negative momentum score (Improved 16%, Worsened 26%) as does Furstenau (Improved 12%, Worsened 16%).

On the preferred premier question, almost half of likely voters in British Columbia (47%, +3) select Horgan, with Wilkinson at 27% (=) and Furstenau at 6% (-1).

As was the case last month, likely voters in British Columbia are primarily preoccupied with housing, poverty and homelessness (25%, +1), the economy and jobs (also 25%, +4) and health care (23%, -3). Other issues mentioned by likely voters are COVID-19 (8%, -3), the environment (7%, =), crime and public safety (4%, -4), accountability (3%, =), education (1%, =) and energy (1%, +1).

When asked which leader is better suited to handle specific issues, Horgan holds sizeable leads over Wilkinson on COVID-19 (52% to 20%), health care (48% to 24%), education (42% to 23%), the economy and jobs (42% to 30%), housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 23%), accountability (37% to 28%), crime and public safety (37% to 30%) and energy (34% to 27%).

On the environment, Furstenau is in first place (33%), followed by Horgan with 29% and Wilkinson with 18%.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 5 to October 7, 2020, among 750 likely voters in British Columbia, including 698 decided voters in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.7 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Race Relations Have Worsened for a Majority of Americans

The country is deeply divided on whether to rename U.S. Army installations christened after Confederate historical figures.

Vancouver, BC [September 30, 2020] – Adults in the United States hold ominous views on the issue of race relations, as considerable proportions of residents of specific ethnic background say they have experienced racism in the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 58% of Americans say race relations in the United States have worsened over the past two years, while only 30% believe they have improved.

Practically three-in-four respondents of Native American descent (73%) think race relations have worsened over the past two years—a view shared by 59% of White Americans, 58% of Asian and Pacific Islanders, 58% of African Americans and 46% of Hispanic and Latino Americans.

About three-in-five Americans say they have personally experienced behaviour that they would consider racist in the United States on social media (60%) and during day-to-day interactions with others (59%). 

Smaller proportions of Americans have endured racism at work (49%), at school (47%), during interactions with police or law enforcement officers (44%) and during interactions with the health care system (39%).

“Almost two thirds of Americans of African and Hispanic or Latino descent (64% each) say they have experienced racist behaviour when dealing with police and law enforcement in the United States,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower for Native Americans (51%), Asian and Pacific Islanders (42%) and White Americans (38%).”

More than half of Americans say they have witnessed racist behaviour on social media (68%), during day-to-day interactions with others (65%), at work (56%), at school (55%) and during interactions with police or law enforcement officers (also 55%). 

More than two-in-five Americans (46%) say they have witnessed racist behaviour during interactions with the health care system.

A majority of Americans (56%) have a positive opinion of the Black Lives Matter movement, while 35% hold negative views. 

Perceptions on Black Lives Matter vary greatly according to ethnicity, from a high of 71% among African Americans to a low of 40% among Native Americans.

Half of Americans (50%) hold positive views on the #MeToo and #TimesUp movement, while 30% have a negative opinion.

Positive perceptions of #MeToo and #TimesUp are higher with Americans aged 18-to-34 and aged 35-to-54 (56% each) than among those aged 55 and over (40%).

Respondents to this survey were also asked about four recent decisions and proposals. 

More than half of Americans agree with NASCAR’s decision to ban the Confederate Flag from events (56%) while 33% disagree.

On a regional basis, agreement with NASCAR’s choice is highest in the West (64%), followed by the Midwest (58%), the South (54%) and the Northeast (52%).

The nationwide results are similar for the State of Mississippi’s decision to change its flag to a new one that will not feature the Confederate battle emblem. A majority of Americans (56%) agree with this decree, while one third (33%) disagree.

On this particular decision, support is also highest from Americans who reside in the West (64%), followed by the Midwest (57%), the South (55%) and the Northeast (50%).

Two other proposals are decidedly more contentious. While 46% of respondents agree with the removal of monuments and sculptures that feature Americans who owned slaves, 46% disagree and 8% are undecided.

Support for the removal of these monuments and sculptures stands at 63% among Democrats and 74% among African Americans, but drops to 42% among Independents, 30% among Republicans and 40% among White Americans.

The results are similar for the notion of renaming U.S. Army installations named after Confederate historical figures. Across the country, 45% of Americans agree with this proposal, while 44% disagree.

Support for changing the names of these installations is higher among Democrats (65%) and African Americans (61%) and lower among Republicans (28%) and White Americans (39%).

Methodology:
Results are based on online studies conducted on August 3 and August 4, 2020, and from September 4 to September 6, 2020, among 2,400 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Photo: Life Matters

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Many Likely Voters in British Columbia Plan to Vote by Mail in 2020

Nine-in-ten likely voters in the province have confidence in Elections BC to oversee the entire voting process this year.

Vancouver, BC [September 28, 2020] – British Columbia could see a substantial number of mail-in ballots in this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, three-in-ten likely voters in British Columbia (29%) say they intend to cast their ballot by mail this year, up from 2% who recall voting this way in 2017.

While 58% of respondents to this survey remember voting in person on Election Day in the last provincial election, only 28% say they are currently planning to cast their ballot in the same fashion on October 24.

The proportion of likely voters who intent to cast their ballot during the Advance Voting period is also lower in 2020. In 2017, 36% of respondents say they took advantage of this option. This year, only 27% intend to vote this way.

In addition, 16% of likely voters in British Columbia are currently not sure about the way in which they will cast their ballot in 2020.

“The concept of postal voting is particularly attractive for likely voters in Vancouver Island (32%) and the Fraser Valley (also 32%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A similar proportion of those who reside in Metro Vancouver (29%) would also currently prefer to vote by mail,”

Likely voters aged 55 and over are slightly less likely to cast their ballot on Election Day (25%) than those aged 18-to-34 (31%) and those aged 35-to-54 (30%).

Conversely, voting by mail is a more popular option for likely voters aged 35-to-54 (33%) and aged 55 and over (31%) than for those aged 18-to-34 (21%).

Across the province, 90% of likely voters are “very confident” or “moderately confident” that Elections BC —the non-partisan office of the British Columbia legislature responsible for conducting provincial and local elections—will be able to oversee the entire voting process in this year’s provincial ballot.

Sizeable proportions of likely voters also express confidence in Elections BC to ensure that there is no fraudulent activity with mailed ballots (82%) and to enforce social distancing at polling stations (74%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 21 to September 23, 2020, among 750 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

BC NDP Ahead of Rivals as Campaign Starts in British Columbia

John Horgan has a 17-point lead over Andrew Wilkinson when voters are asked who would make the Best Premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 24, 2020] – As British Columbia prepares for a unique electoral campaign in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, the governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in first place, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters in British Columbia would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency in the election scheduled for October 24. The BC NDP has gained three points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in May.

The BC Liberals are in second place with 37% (+4), followed by the BC Green Party with 13% (-3) and the BC Conservative Party with 4% (-5). 

The BC NDP holds a 12-point lead among decided female voters (47% to 35%). The race is significantly closer among decided male voters (41% for the BC NDP and 39% for the BC Liberals).

The BC Liberals are six-points ahead of the BC NDP in Southern BC (43% to 37%). 

The BC Green Party has its best numbers among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (22%, with the BC NDP at 38%) and in Vancouver Island (22%, with the BC NDP at 50%).

Two thirds of British Columbians (67%, -6) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan is handling his duties, while one-in-four (25%, +7) disapprove.

Since May, the approval rating for BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson dropped by nine points to 39%. Recently selected BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau holds similar numbers (37%), while the rating is significantly lower for BC Conservative Party leader Trevor Bolin (23%, -12).

When likely voters are asked who would make the Best Premier of British Columbia, more than two-in-five (44%) select Horgan, while 27% choose Wilkinson. Furstenau and Bolin are in single digits (7% and 2% respectively) and 21% are undecided.

More than one-in-four likely voters (26%, -2) think health care is the most important issue facing the province. Housing, poverty and homelessness is a close second at 24% (+7), followed by the economy and jobs (21%, =), COVID-19 (11%, -10), crime and public safety (8%, +6) and the environment (7%, +3).

“At the start of the provincial campaign, the most pressing concerns of voters in British Columbia vary greatly depending on age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Housing, poverty and homelessness is especially important for those aged 18-to-34 (29%), while the economy and jobs is top of mind for those aged 35-to-54 (26%) and health care is paramount for those aged 55 and over (29%).”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 21 to September 23, 2020, among 750 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by James Wheeler

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Americans Reject Lifting Term Limits for Presidents

Likely voters in the United States are more supportive of reforms that would reduce the tenures of Members of Congress.

Vancouver, BC [September 23, 2020] – The notion of allowing the President of the United States to serve more than two terms in office is not attractive to a large proportion of American likely voters, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, only 6% of respondents are willing to lift term litis to allow American presidents to serve as many four-year terms as they want.

While one-in-four likely voters (26%) would prefer to limit the head of state to a single four-year term, almost two thirds (65%) would keep the current regulations that allow presidents to serve for two four-year terms,

“Support for completely abolishing term limits at the White House has dropped from 12% in a survey conducted in May 2013, four months after Barack Obama was sworn in for his final term, to 6% this year,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A majority of likely voters in all regions believe the current guidelines should remain in place.”

Just over a third of likely voters (35%) would limit U.S. Senators to one six-year term, while a similar proportion (34%) would prefer to limit members of the upper house to two six-year terms.

While 9% of likely voters would endorse an 18-year tenure for U.S. Senators (three six-year terms), 16% would keep the current regulations that allow members of the upper house to serve as many terms as they want.

Half of likely voters in the United States (50%) are willing to limit members of the House of Representatives to six-year tenures (three two-year terms), while about one-in-five (21%) would prefer to allow members of the lower house to serve for up to 12 years.

Just under one-in-five likely voters (18%) would continue to allow members of the House of Representatives to serve as many terms as they want.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 4 to September 6, 2020, among 1,200 American adults.  The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals Hold a Six-Point Lead Over Conservatives in Canada

The economy and jobs (30%) and health care (25%) are identified as the most important issues facing the country.

Vancouver, BC [September 17, 2020] – The governing Liberal Party is ahead of all other contenders in Canada’s federal political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of decided voters would support the Liberal candidate in their constituency if an election were held today, down one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May.

The Conservative Party is second with 32% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17% (=), the Bloc Québécois with 8% (+3), the Green Party with 3% (-4) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

“Among decided voters, the Liberals are the most popular party in Atlantic Canada (45%) and Ontario (43%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The Conservatives lead in Alberta (58%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (45%).”

In Quebec, the Liberals are five points ahead of the Bloc (39% to 34%). In British Columbia, the three main federal parties are locked in a close race (Conservatives 34%, Liberals 31%, New Democrats 29%).

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%) say the economy and jobs is the most important issue facing the country right now, followed by health care (25%), housing, homelessness and poverty (12%), the environment (7%), and accountability and leadership (6%).

Residents of Alberta are particularly preoccupied with the economy and jobs (52%, the highest proportion across all regions), while Atlantic Canadians are more worried about health care (44%).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is a bigger concern in British Columbia and Ontario (each at 19%) than in other Canadian provinces, while Quebec has the highest proportion of residents who think the environment is the most important issue right now (16%).

Across the country, 51% of Canadians approve of the performance of Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau, while 45% disapprove. The incumbent prime minister has his best numbers with Canadians aged 18-to-34 (59%), Ontarians (58%) and Quebecers (52%). 

The approval rating for opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole stands at 33%, with 34% of Canadians disapproving and 33% being undecided. O’Toole’s rating is highest in Alberta (50%) and lowest in Quebec (26%).

More than two-in-five Canadians (44%) approve of the way NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has handled his duties, while the rating is significantly lower for Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (20%, and 42% in Quebec), interim Green Party leader Jo-Ann Roberts (21%) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (14%).

Almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) think Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister of Canada. O’Toole is second on the list with 23%, followed by Singh with 13%. Blanchet, Bernier and Roberts are in single digits.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 11 to September 13, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca