Politics – Page 3 – Research Co.

Liberals Remain Ahead of Conservatives in Canadian Campaign

April 8, 2025April 20, 2025By Mario Canseco

Mark Carney leads Pierre Poilievre when likely voters are asked who would be best to manage seven important issues.

Vancouver, BC [April 8, 2025] – The governing Liberal Party holds an eight-point advantage over the opposition Conservative Party as the federal election campaign continues in Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 44% of decided voters would support the Liberals (+3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in late March), while 36% (-1) would back the Conservatives.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 8% (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 5% (-2), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario (48% to 39%), Quebec (47% to 22%, with the Bloc at 19%) and British Columbia (44% to 38%). The Conservatives are first in Alberta (51%, with the Liberals at 28%).

“The retention rate continues to be stellar for both Conservatives and Liberals, who are holding on to at least four-in-five of their 2021 voters (82% and 80% respectively),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are keeping fewer than half of their voters from the last federal election (45%).”

Just over three-in-ten likely voters (31%, +1) think Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue facing the country. Significantly fewer choose the economy and jobs (19%, -1), housing, homelessness and poverty (18%, +1), health care (11%, +2) and immigration (5%, -2).

Overall voter consideration remains higher for the Liberals (55%, +2) than for the Conservatives (48%, +2) and the New Democrats (41%, +6)

Fewer than one-in-four likely voters say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting their ballot for the Greens (24%, -1), the Animal Protection Party (21%, -2), the People’s Party (20%, -1), the Canadian Future Party (19%, -5), the Libertarian Party (18%, +1), the United Party (15%, +1), the Marijuana Party (also 15%), the Christian Heritage Party (14%, -1), the Centrist Party (13%, =), the Marxist-Leninist Party (12%, +2) the Rhinocéros Party (11%, +1) or the Communist Party (10%, =) if they ran a candidate in their riding.

Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party has the lowest approval rating among the six main party leaders (22%, -3). The numbers are higher for Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (25%, -5), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (also 25%, =), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (40%, +2), Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (44%, -2) and Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney (58%, +1).

Carney posts a positive momentum score this week (+14), with 36% of likely voters saying their opinion of him has improved since the start of the campaign and 22% saying it has worsened. The scores are in negative territory for Poilievre (-13), Pedneault (-14), Blanchet (-16), Singh (-18) and Bernier (also -18).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, more than two-in-five likely voters (43%, +4) choose Carney, while fewer than three-in-ten (29%, -4) select Poilievre. Singh is third with 9% (=), followed by Blanchet (4%, +1), Bernier (2%, =) and Pedneault (1%, -1).

More than half of likely voters (54%) say there is nothing Singh can say or do to make them vote for the NDP. The proportions are lower on this question for Poilievre and the Conservatives (51%) and Carney and the Liberals (43%).

Three-in-five likely voters (60%, +1) are comfortable with Carney being in charge of Canada’s economy, while 46% (=) would be comfortable if Poilievre were to take over.

Likely voters were asked to choose which one of the two main party leaders would be the best person to manage 10 different issues. Perceptions are particularly close on three issues: crime and public safety (Poilievre 36%, Carney 34%), energy and pipelines (Carney 38%, Poilievre 37%) and immigration (Carney 37%, Poilievre 36%).

The Liberal leader holds the upper hand over his Conservative counterpart on seven issues: housing, homelessness and poverty (41% to 31%), the environment (42% to 26%), health care (43% to 28%), accountability and leadership (44% to 32%), the economy and jobs (46% to 32%), foreign affairs (46% to 30%) and Canada-U.S. Relations (49% to 29%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on April 5 and April 6, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,007 likely voters in Canada, including 956 decided voters in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Back Retaliation as Trump’s “Liberation Day” Nears

April 1, 2025February 14, 2026By Mario Canseco

The “Buy Canadian” movement shows no signs of slowing down, as support for enhanced trade with other nations remains high.

Vancouver, BC [April 1, 2025] – More than two thirds of Canadians are ready for targeted action to counter the American president’s overtures on tariffs and sovereignty, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 72% of Canadians support Canada’s prime minister and provincial premiers suspending all steel, aluminum, and wood exports to the United States until U.S. President Donald Trump completely removes the threat of tariffs.

Seven-in-ten Canadians (70%) support Canada’s prime minister and provincial premiers shutting off all energy exports to the United States until Trump completely removes the threat of tariffs, while just over two thirds (68%) endorse Canada officially demanding an apology from Trump for his statements related to Canada becoming an American state.

Just under three-in-five Canadians (58%) support Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs recalling the Canadian ambassador to the U.S. in response to Trump’s statements.

In the middle of a federal election campaign, more than four-in-five Canadians (84%) have followed news related to the tariffs “very closely” or “moderately closely”, down three points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early February.

Practically three-in-five Canadians (59%) approve of the way Prime Minister Mark Carney has dealt with the tariffs. The rating did not move for Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (47%, =).

“Two thirds of Canadians aged 55 and over (66%) are content with the way Prime Minister Mark Carney has managed the dispute over tariffs,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The approval rating for Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre among this group is decidedly lower (35%).”

More than half of Canadians (56%, -5) are satisfied with the performance of their premier during the tariffs dispute, while more than a third (37%) feel the same way about their province’s official opposition leader.

The approval rating fell significantly for the premiers of British Columbia (53%, -14) and Alberta (42%, -12) and remained mostly stable in Ontario (59%, -5) and Quebec (56%, -2).

This month, Quebec has the highest ranked opposition leader on the tariffs dispute (43%, -1) followed by Alberta (39%, -5), Ontario (37%, -10) and British Columbia (34%, -3).

Canadians are evenly divided when asked to ponder what the future will bring, with 36% (-5) expecting the U.S. government to rescind the tariffs and the same proportion (36%, +2) predicting their expansion.

There is also a split on which type of federal government would be better positioned at this point to deal with the tariffs implemented by the United States. More than two-in-five Canadians (44%, -5) think a Conservative government would do better, while 42% (+4) disagree.

As was the case in early February, more than three-in-five Canadians (64%, +1) are avoiding the purchase of goods originated from the United States, if a non-American alternative is available. More than a third say they are avoiding American restaurant franchises in Canada (41%, =), cancelled a planned trip to the United States (37%, +11) and avoiding American entertainment options (35%, +4).

The proportion of Canadians who are not partaking in any of these four actions stands at 20% (-4). This group encompasses one-in-four Conservative Party voters in the last federal election (25%) and only one-in-ten Canadians who voted for either the Liberal Party (10%) or the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 10%) in 2021.

Canadians appear to be having a difficult time figuring out which restaurant franchises are domestic. More than two-in-five correctly identified five of 10 brands tested as Canadian: Harvey’s (52%), Pizza Pizza (50%), Swiss Chalet (49%), Boston Pizza (46%) and Cora (45%). The proportions of correct responses are lower for Mary Browns (37%), Freshii (34%), New York Fries (23%), Panago (23%) and Ricky’s All Day Grill (21%).

At least three-in-four Canadians think Canada should seriously consider enhancing trade with Australia and New Zealand (81%, +3), the European Union (EU) (79%, +2), Mexico (78%, +3) and Japan (75%, =).

Support for requesting an independent dispute settlement panel under the terms of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) stands at 59% (-5).

Just over one-in-five Canadians (21%, -1) would seriously consider initiating a formal process for Canada to become an American state. On a regional basis, support for this notion is highest in Quebec (24%), followed by Ontario (22%), Alberta (21%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (18%), British Columbia (17%) and Atlantic Canada (17%).

Just over half of Canadians (52%) would seriously consider initiating a formal process for Canada to join the EU, while 35% disagree and 13% are undecided.

Majorities of Liberal and NDP voters in 2021 (61% and 55% respectively) favour taking a look at Canada’s possible membership in the EU. Support is lower among Conservative voters (45%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on March 23 and March 24, 2025, among 1,003 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Carney Boosts Liberals as Canadian Federal Campaign Begins

March 25, 2025March 24, 2025By Mario Canseco

Canada-U.S. Relations becomes the most important issue for voters, outpacing jobs, housing, health care and immigration.

Vancouver, BC [March 25, 2025] – Support for the governing Liberal Party has significantly increased since Mark Carney was selected as its leader, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 41% of decided voters in Canada would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their constituency if the federal election took place today, up 20 points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in early January, prior to the announcement of Justin Trudeau’s departure as head of government.

The Conservative Party is in second place with 37% (-10), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 9% (-6), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (-3), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

Three regions of the country post statistical ties in the early stages of the federal campaign: Atlantic Canada (Liberals 42%, Conservatives 40%), Ontario (Liberals 43%, Conservatives 40%) and British Columbia (Liberals 41%, Conservatives 39%).

The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (56%), while the Liberals are leading in Quebec (43%, with the Conservatives and the Bloc tied at 22%).

“Practically one-in-four voters who supported the New Democrats in 2021 (24%) are voting for the Liberals in 2025,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is significantly higher for the Conservatives (85%) and the Liberals (83%).”

More than half of Canadians (53%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the Liberals if they ran a candidate in their constituency. Voting consideration is currently lower for the Conservatives (46%), the New Democrats (35%) and the Greens (25%).

Just over one-in-five Canadians (21%) would consider voting for the People’s Party, which has never elected a candidate to the House of Commons. Consideration is higher for the Canadian Future Party (24%) and the Animal Protection Party (23%) and lower for seven other political organizations: the Libertarian Party (17%), the Christian Heritage Party (15%), the United Party (14%), the Centrist Party (13%), the Rhinocéros Party (10%), the Marxist-Leninist Party (also 10%) and the Communist Party (also 10%).

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%) say Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue facing the country right now, followed by the economy and jobs (20%, -2), housing, homelessness and poverty (17%, -12), health care (9%, -7) and immigration (7%, -6).

There is a significant age gap on the top issue, with Canada-U.S. Relations peaking at 44% among Canadians aged 55 and over, but dropping to 30% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 17% among those aged 18-to-34. The country’s youngest adults are more likely to be concerned about housing, homelessness and poverty (24%) or the economy and jobs (23%).

More than half of Canadians (57%) approve of the way Mark Carney has handled his duties as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party. The rating is lower for Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (46%, -6), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (38%, -1), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (30%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, -2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (also 25%, +2).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, almost two-in-five Canadians (39%) select Carney, while one third (33%, -6) choose Poilievre. The remaining party leaders are in single digits on this question, where the level of undecided respondents fell from 17% in January to 12% this month.

Carney also holds the upper hand over Poilievre on a question related to financial management. Almost three-in-five Canadians (59%) say they are comfortable with the Liberal leader being in charge of Canada’s economy, a 25-point improvement from Trudeau’s last result in early January.

Fewer than half of Canadians (46%, -9) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being in charge of Canada’s economy—a proportion that rises to 62% in Alberta.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Perceptions of Constitutional Monarchy Improve Across Canada

March 21, 2025March 19, 2025By Mario Canseco

Catherine, Princess of Wales, has the highest favourability rating among six different members of the Royal Family.

Vancouver, BC [March 21, 2025] – Public views on Canada’s existence as a constitutional monarchy and federal state have improved over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 31% of Canadians would prefer for Canada to remain a monarchy, up eight points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in March 2024.

Two-in-five Canadians (40%, -6) would like for Canada to have an elected head of state, while 18% (-3) do not care either way and 11% (+1) are undecided.

“Support for Canada remaining a monarchy has returned to the level observed after the death of Queen Elizabeth II in September 2022,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The gap between republicanists and monarchists has shrunk from 23 points in 2024 to nine points in 2025.”

Public backing for Canada remaining a monarchy is highest among Canadians aged 55 and over (36%) than with their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (31%) and aged 35-to-54 (25%).

On a regional basis, Quebec has the lowest proportion of residents who endorse the continuation of the monarchy (24%). The proportions are higher in Alberta (31%), British Columbia (32%), Atlantic Canada (34%), Ontario (also 34%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (35%).

More than half of Canadians (53%, +1) believe Canada will “definitely” or “probably” remain a monarchy two decades from now, while just under a third (32%, -1) think the country will “definitely” or “probably” have an elected head of state.

Majorities of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party (61%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (59%) or the Conservative Party (56%) in the 2021 federal election expect the country to retain its status as a constitutional monarchy in 2045.

This month, Princess Kate holds the highest favourability rating among six Royal Family members in Canada (58%, +4). The numbers are lower for Prince William (54%, =), Prince Harry (47%, -1), Duchess Meghan (40%, -2), King Charles III (also 40%, +2) and Queen Consort Camilla (30%, +5).

Favourable opinions of King Charles III are highest among Canadians aged 55 and over (50%), Liberal voters in the 2021 federal election (also 50%) and British Columbians (46%),

More than three-in-five Canadians who want the monarchy to continue (62%) hold favourable views on King Charles III. Only 32% of Canadians who want to have an elected head of state feel the same way.

The perceptions of Canadians on specific issues related to the current monarch have shifted over the past 12 months. Just over half (51%, -17) want King Charles III to commit to reduce the carbon footprint of the entire Royal Family, and more than two-in-five (44%, -16) believe he should advance the cause of reconciliation with Indigenous peoples.

Two-in-five Canadians (40%, -10) say they would have liked to see Prince William become King of the United Kingdom and the other 14 Commonwealth realms, including Canada—a proportion that rises to 49% in Alberta.

Canadians are divided on the presence of King Charles III on coins and bills that will be used in the country, While 44% of respondents (-8) say they have no problem with this scenario, 41% (+4) disagree.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from March 10 to March 12, 2025, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Most British Columbians Dismayed by Pro-Palestinian Protests

March 20, 2025March 19, 2025By Mario Canseco

Concerns about antisemitism remain high, as the public calls for the strict vetting of immigration applications from Gaza residents.

Vancouver, BC [March 20, 2025] – The post-October 7, 2023, conflict in Israel and Gaza is making British Columbians uneasy about issues related to public protests and immigration, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample shows that most British Columbians are dissatisfied with the actions of Pro-Palestinian protestors, which have included the burning of Canadian flags and chants in support of groups identified by the Government of Canada as terrorist entities.

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians (72%) say these rallies go against Canadian values and should not be allowed, while just over two thirds (68%) think these actions are clearly illegal and those involved should be arrested.

British Columbians are divided on whether police and governments are doing enough to combat antisemitism (Agree 43%, Disagree 42%).

“More than half of BC Green Party voters in 2024 (51%) think police and governments are managing antisemitism properly,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer British Columbians who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (47%) or the Conservative Party of BC (45%) feel the same way.”

More than four-in-five British Columbians (82%) say that, based on the public handover ceremonies that have taken place in Gaza, the treatment of hostages is inhumane and makes them doubt there is a path to peace. More than half (53%) suggest that creating a state in Gaza will simply result in a new terrorist state being created.

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians (72%) want the federal government to have strict controls to ensure no Hamas members or supporters are allowed to come to Canada, and just over two thirds (68%) want immigration from Gaza to cease immediately, including in-process visas.

Only 37% of British Columbians believe the vetting of immigrants from Muslim nations is currently adequate, while majorities say that too many immigrants from Muslim nations are participants in the angry protests targeting Jewish Canadians and calling for the extermination of Israel (60%) and do not share or practice Canadian values (69%).

Four-in-five British Columbians (80%, +1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2024) are “very concerned” or “moderately concerned” about attacks, including gunfire and firebombs, on synagogues, Jewish schools and businesses.

More than three-in-four British Columbians are concerned about three other issues: aggressive behaviour by Pro-Palestinian protestors (78%, +4), protestors targeting Jewish neighbourhoods and Jewish-owned businesses (77%, +1) and rising prejudice against Jewish Canadians (antisemitism) (76%, +1).

Two thirds of British Columbians (67%, +1) believe that Canadian Jews are being unfairly targeted for what is happening in Israel and Gaza.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from March 10 to March 12, 2025, among 812 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Outline Priorities for Official Opposition

March 13, 2025March 12, 2025By Mario Canseco

Almost half think the province needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives.

Vancouver, BC [March 13, 2025] – Most British Columbians believe the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly should concentrate on four issues during the next four years, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, four-in-five British Columbians want the Conservative Party of BC to focus on fostering economic growth in all areas of the province (80%) and getting the government to invest more on health care (also 80%).

Majorities of British Columbians call for the Official Opposition to work on developing a housing policy that rivals what the provincial government is doing (70%) and getting more pipelines built and more energy projects approved (59%).

Fewer British Columbians think the BC Conservatives should spend time banning transgender women from taking part in women’s sports leagues competitions (42%) or reverting the ban on plastic straws (35%).

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (59%) say they trust the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) to stand up to the threats generated by Donald Trump. Just under half of the province’s residents (48%) trust the Conservative Party of BC for this same endeavour.

British Columbians aged 18-to-34 are more likely to express confidence in the BC NDP to manage the American president (64%) than the BC Conservatives (49%). Those aged 55 and over feel the same way about the two parties (51% each).

Almost half of British Columbians (48%) think the province needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives.

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%) think the Conservative Party of BC is a “free enterprise coalition”, while just over a third (34%) refer to BC Conservative leader John Rustad as a “premier-in-waiting”.

“Residents of Northern BC (46%), Southern BC (44%) and the Fraser Valley (43%) are more likely to regard the BC Conservatives as a free enterprise coalition,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among those who live in Metro Vancouver (39%) and Vancouver Island (36%).”

British Columbians are split when comparing Rustad to the politicians who commanded the BC Liberals. About one-in-five respondents feel the BC Conservative leader is better than Gordon Campbell (19%), Christy Clark (21%), Andrew Wilkinson (19%) and Kevin Falcon (19%). Roughly three-in-ten British Columbians believe Rustad is worse than Campbell (32%), Clark (33%), Wilkinson (29%) and Falcon (29%).

Among British Columbians who voted for the BC Conservatives in last year’s provincial election, the perceptions are markedly better. More than a third believe Rustad is better than Falcon (40%), Clark (38%), Wilkinson (36%) and Campbell (36%).

More than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) think the Conservative Party of BC resembles the current Conservative Party of Canada, while just over two-in-five (44%) think it is akin to the federal Progressive Conservative Party that existed from 1942 to 2003.

Significantly fewer British Columbians believe the BC Conservatives are similar to the federal Reform Party / Canadian Alliance (30%), the defunct provincial Social Credit Party (29%), the BC Liberals (29%) and the current federal Liberal Party (24%).

Respondents to this survey were also asked to choose a position that a political party should take based on five contrasting statements.

Three-in-four British Columbians (75%) prefer parties where all members are free to vote individually, while one-in-four (25%) prefer parties where all members vote as a group.

Seven-in-ten British Columbias (70%) prefer parties that acknowledge and help the less fortunate, while three-in-ten (30%) prefer parties that choose not to provide handouts when in power.

Two thirds of British Columbians (66%) side with parties that acknowledge Indigenous reconciliation instead of with those that do not (34%).

Majorities of the province’s residents prefer parties that are anti-American (64%) and that advocate for more economic and personal freedoms (also 64%) over those perceived as pro-American (36%) and that defend the status quo on economic and personal freedoms (also 36%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from March 3 to March 5, 2025, among 802 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbia’s Political Scene Remains Closely Contested

March 11, 2025March 11, 2025By Mario Canseco

The standing of the two major parties has not changed much since the October 2024 provincial election.

Vancouver, BC [March 11, 2025] – British Columbia’s main political parties hold similar levels of public support as the legislative session gets underway, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters would back the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) if an election were held today, while 42% would support the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 11%, while 3% of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates.

“More than half of decided voters aged 55 and over (54%) would back the BC NDP in a new provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost half of decided voters aged 35-to-49 (49%) are with the BC Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the New Democrats are clearly ahead of the Conservatives in Vancouver Island (50% to 31%). The race is closer in Southern BC (BC NDP 49%, BC Conservatives 47%) and in Metro Vancouver (both parties tied with 44%). The BC Conservatives hold leads in the Fraser Valley (47% to 34%) and in Northern BC (44% to 39%).

The BC NDP is ahead on a separate question, with 53% of British Columbians saying they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the party in the next provincial election. Consideration is lower for the BC Conservatives (45%) and the BC Greens (39%).

More than half of British Columbians (55%) approve of the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby, up two points from the final Research Co. election survey conducted in October 2024. Satisfaction is lower with Official Opposition and Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad (40%, -2) and interim BC Green Party leader Jeremy Valeriote (34%).

A merger of the BC Green Party and the BC NDP is regarded as a “good idea” by 46% of British Columbians and a “bad idea” by 33%.

Just over a third of British Columbians (34%) think BC United merging with the Conservative Party of BC is a “good idea”, while two-in-five (40%) deem it a “bad idea”.

More than a third of British Columbians (36%, -4) say housing, poverty and homelessness is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (21%, -2), the economy and jobs (20%, +6), crime and public safety (6%, =), the environment (3%, -1) and accountability (3%, =).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

How Ontario Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

March 3, 2025March 3, 2025By Mario Canseco

The governing party connected equally well on leadership and policies. The two opposition parties were unable to break through on desire for change.

The foibles of Canada’s first-past-the-post system can explain why supporters of the Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario are going through mixed feelings after last week’s provincial election. Premier Doug Ford will form a majority government once again, with his party going from 41% of the vote and 83 seats in 2022, to 43% of the vote and 80 seats in 2025.

The early election, designed to give Ford a mandate than would last longer than the second term of United States President Donald Trump, once again showed how widely vote efficiency can vary. The Ontario New Democratic Paty (NDP) will form the Official Opposition, with 27 seats secured with 19% of the province-wide vote. The Ontario Liberal Party received 30% of all cast ballots but won just 14 seats.

In our “Exit Poll”, more than three-in-five Ontarians (63%) claim to have voted strategically, defined as voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. The numbers do not sway much among supporters of specific political parties: 68% for Liberals, 63% for New Democrats and 61% for Progressive Conservatives. We are almost as likely to find a PC supporter who voted against the Liberals or New Democrats, than to find a hard-core Liberal who went for the NDP in order to ensure that a seat did not turn blue.

The main motivators for Progressive Conservative supporters were the party’s leader (33%) and the party’s ideas and policies (also 33%). The score for the leaders of the Liberals and New Democrats is slightly lower (31% and 26% respectively).

Desire for change—which usually jumps when the opposition connects well—sits at a low 14% for both opposition parties. The party’s candidate in the riding rises to 17% for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals (11%) and Progressive Conservatives (9%).

Ontarians are still divided on whether the Liberals and New Democrats should merge into a single political party, with 44% agreeing with the concept and 42% disagreeing with it. Majorities of Ontarians who cast a ballot for Liberal candidates (62%) and New Democratic candidates (52%) like the idea, but only 32% of those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives concur.

In our 2022 Exit Poll, only 39% of Ontarians welcomed a possible Liberal-NDP merger. As another election cycle goes by without a solid alternative to the Progressive Conservatives, appetite for a deal featuring centre-left parties has grown.

In addition, more Ontarians are getting behind electoral reform. More than three-in-five voters (62%) think Ontario should implement a system of proportional representation for provincial elections, up four points since 2022. What is striking about the findings this year is that voters aged 35-to-54 are more likely to desire a different system (67%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (61%) and aged 55 and over (58%). In any case, we have majorities across all age groups who openly wonder whether a party should have so much control of the legislature with fewer than 50 per cent of all cast ballots.

Ford’s latest transformation into “Captain Canada” has not gone unnoticed. Almost half of provincial voters in Ontario (47%) say they would like to see him become leader of the Conservative Party of Canada at some point. The gender gap on this question is negligible (Men 49%, Women 45%) and the idea is particularly appealing to Ontario voters aged 18-to-34 (51%), as well as residents of two seat-rich regions: the 905 (50%) and the 416 (49%) area codes.

We asked these same voters if they would like to see Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister later this year. The province-wide proportion is lower (43%), but while almost half of men are ready to see Poilievre heading the federal government (49%), only 39% of women concur.

In a troubling finding for Conservative supporters, just 36% of Ontario’s oldest adults—traditionally the most reliable voters—would like to see Poilievre supplant Justin Trudeau. This is a far cry from the state of affairs at the start of the year, when 51% of decided voters in Ontario were with the Conservatives before Trudeau announced his intention to step down. Poilievre remains popular in the 905 (47%) and the 416 (45%) regions, but his numbers are not as good as what Ford commands as a “future” federal Conservative leader.

All polls are snapshots, and this one is unique for several reasons. Poilievre is not being compared to any Liberal rival. The survey focuses only on Ontarians who cast a ballot in the latest provincial election, and we can expect turnout to be higher federally than what has been observed in the two previous Ontario provincial ballots. Still, it is clear that Ford’s decision to call an election because of what transpired in the United States has paid off. His popularity has grown, and some Ontarians are starting to wonder if he is ready for a larger job than the one he has just been re-elected to.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 27 to March 1, 2025, among 501 Ontario adults who voted in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Progressive Conservatives Headed for Fresh Term in Ontario

February 26, 2025February 26, 2025By Mario Canseco

Vancouver, BC [February 26, 2025] – Public support for the governing Progressive Conservatives has not dwindled in the final stages of Ontario’s provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 46% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-February) say they will support the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party tomorrow or have already done so.

The Ontario Liberal Party is in second place with 30% (-1), followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17% (+2) and the Ontario Green Party with 5% (+1). An additional 2% of decided voters (-2) would support other parties or independent candidates.

“More than half of decided voters aged 55 and over in Ontario (55%) are backing the Progressive Conservatives,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support for the governing party is lower among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (49%) and aged 18-to-34 (37%).”

The approval rating for Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford is unchanged at 56%. Just under half of Ontarians (47%, +4) are satisfied with the way Official Opposition and Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles has managed her duties. The numbers are lower for Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie (43%, -5) and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%, =).

The four main party leaders reach the final day of campaigning with negative momentum scores: -4 for Crombie, -3 for Ford and -1 for both Stiles and Schreiner.

Ford maintains a large lead on the “Best Premier” question, with 44% (-2). Crombie is second with 26% (+4), followed by Stiles (14%, +3) and Schreiner (5%, =).

Three-in-ten Ontarians (30%, +2) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (28%, =), health care (18%, -1), government accountability (5%, =) and crime and public safety (4%, -1).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on February 25 and February 26, 2025, among 701 Ontario adults, including 666 decided voters in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Some Canadians Take Wait-and-See Approach on Federal Politics

February 19, 2025February 18, 2025By Mario Canseco

Canadians are divided when asked to compare Pierre Poilievre to three former recent leaders of centre-right parties.

Vancouver, BC [February 19, 2025] – About one-in-four Canadians are no longer entirely convinced about voting for the Conservative Party in the next federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 23% of Canadians say they were leaning towards voting for the Conservatives, but the resignation of Justin Trudeau changed things and they need to see what the next Liberal Party leader does before deciding who to vote for.

Similar proportions of Canadians are certain that they will support Conservative candidates (30%) or vote against them (32%) in the next federal ballot, while 16% are completely undecided.

“In the last voting survey conducted in early January before Trudeau announced he was stepping down, more than half of decided voters in British Columbia and Ontario were backing the Conservatives,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now, about one-in-four voters in each of these provinces are reassessing their choices.”

Practically half of Canadians (49%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for the Conservatives in the next federal election. The rating is lower for the Liberals (43%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 43%), the Green Party (32%) and the People’s Party (23%).

Canadians who are considering voting for the Conservatives were asked about their primary motivation. More than a third (36%) say the most important factor is the party’s leader, while a slightly smaller proportion (33%) mention the party’s ideas and policies.

Fewer Conservative supporters are mainly moved by a desire for change (11%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%), a desire for stability (6%) or disgust with other contending candidates (4%).

Canadians are evenly divided when comparing current Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to three of his predecessors. Similar proportions of Canadians think Poilievre is either better or worse than Stockwell Day (23% and 22% respectively), Andrew Scheer (24% and 23% respectively) and Erin O’Toole (24% and 23% respectively). About a third (32%) believe Poilievre is worse than Stephen Harper, while 20% believe he is better.

Among Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in the 2021 federal election, Poilievre is regarded as superior to O’Toole (50%), Scheer (48%) and Day (45%), but only 31% think he is better than Harper.

More than three-in-ten Canadians believe immigration (34%), the economy and jobs (33%), energy and pipelines (also 33%), crime and public safety (31%) and trade and Canada’s relationship with the United States (also 31%) would be better if Poilievre was serving as Canada’s prime minister.

Poilievre’s rating is lower on five other issues: foreign affairs (30%), accountability and leadership (also 30%), housing, homelessness and poverty (27%), health care (24%) and the environment (23%).

Canadians were also asked to select six words to describe Poilievre. Two-in-five (40%) say the Conservative leader is arrogant, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2023. At least one-in-four Canadians also used the words intelligent (33%, -1), strong (32%, +6), efficient (26%, +6), dishonest (25%, -3) and uncaring (also 25%, +2).

In the Liberal Party’s leadership race, more than two-in-five Canadians (43%) have a favourable opinion of Mark Carney—a proportion that rises to 53% among those aged 55 and over, 50% in British Columbia and 44% in Quebec.

The favourability rating is lower for four other contenders: Chrystia Freeland (38%), Karina Gould (21%), Ruby Dhalla (17%) and Frank Baylis (16%).

The new leader of the Liberal Party is expected to become Prime Minister in March. When asked which one of the five contenders is better suited to handle 10 specific issues, Carney is ahead of his rivals on all of them, with larger leads on the economy and jobs (31%), accountability and leadership (29%) and trade and Canada’s relationship with the United States (also 29%).

Sizeable proportions of Canadians—ranging from 38% to 47%—cannot select any of the five Liberal leadership candidates for the tasks at hand.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from February 3 to February 5, 2025, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Progressive Conservatives Way Ahead of Rivals in Ontario

February 14, 2025February 26, 2025By Mario Canseco

Almost half of Ontarians think Doug Ford would be the “Best Premier” for Canada’s most populous province.

Vancouver, BC [February 14, 2025] – The governing Progressive Conservative Party holds a sizeable advantage over all other contenders in Ontario’s provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 45% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their constituency in this month’s provincial ballot.

The Ontario Liberal Party is second with 31%, followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% and the Ontario Green Party with 4%. An additional 4% of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates.

The Progressive Conservatives are ahead across all areas of the province, with particularly high showings in the 905 Region (52%), Northern Ontario (51%) and the 416 Region (46%).

“At this point in the 2022 provincial campaign, the governing Progressive Conservatives were garnering the support of 34% of decided voters in Ontario,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Their lead in 2025 is markedly higher.”

More than half of Ontarians (56%) approve of the performance of Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford. The rating is lower for Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie (48%), Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Marit Stiles (43%) and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%).

More than one-in-four Ontarians (27%) say their opinion of Ford has improved since the start of the campaign. The numbers on this indicator are lower for Crombie (21%), Stiles (18%) and Schreiner (12%).

Almost half of Ontarians (46%) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province, followed by Crombie (22%), Stiles (11%) and Schreiner (5%).

Two issues are seen as the most important facing the province right now: the economy and jobs (28%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (also 28%). Fewer Ontarians are primarily concerned about health care (19%), government accountability (5%) or crime and public safety (also 5%).

Ford is seen as better suited to manage the economy and jobs (43%), energy and pipelines (also 43%), crime and public safety (42%), accountability (37%), housing, poverty and homelessness (34%), health care (32%), the environment (30%) and education (also 30%).

Crombie’s highest numbers are on health care (26%) and education (25%), while Stiles does best on housing, poverty and homelessness (18%).

More than two-in-five Ontarians (44%) believe the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP should merge into a single political party, while just over a third (36%) disagree with this idea.

Half of residents of the 416 Region (50%) are in favour of a Liberal-NDP merger. The proportions are lower in the 905 Region (48%), Eastern Ontario (45%), Southwestern Ontario (38%) and Northern Ontario (35%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from February 11 to February 13, 2025, among 702 Ontario adults, including 639 decided voters in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Practically Half of Canadians Foresee a Worsening Economy

February 12, 2025February 13, 2025By Mario Canseco

Concerns about the financial viability of employers increased from 33% in August 2024 to 48% this month.

Vancouver, BC [February 12, 2025] – Only a third of Canadians continue to provide a positive review of the country’s financial standing, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of Canadians (unchanged since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in August 2024) rate the economic conditions in Canada as “very good” or “good”, while 64% (=) consider them as “poor” or “very poor”.

Almost half of Canadians (48%, +14) think the Canadian economy will decline in the next six months, while 31% (-12) predict no changes and only 15% (=) expect a recovery.

“Canadians aged 55 and over are particularly pessimistic about the national economy,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Two thirds of Canada’s oldest adults (66%) expect a decline, compared to 48% of those aged 35-to-54 and 31% of those aged 18-to-34.”

More than half of Canadians (52%, +6) describe their own personal finances as “very good” or “good” right now—a proportion that rises to 58% among those aged 55 and over, 54% in Quebec and 53% in Ontario.

Practically half of Canadians (48%, +15) have worried “frequently” or “occasionally” in the past couple of months about their employer running into serious financial trouble.

Similar proportions of Canadians have also experienced concerns about being able to pay mortgage or rent (47%, +5), the value of their investments (47%, -5), unemployment affecting their household (45%, +3) and the safety of their savings (43%, -8).

Practically four-in-five Canadians expect higher prices for a week’s worth of groceries (78%, +2) and gasoline (78%, +1) in the next six months. Majorities also believe they will have to pay more for a new car (71%, +3), a new television set (61%, +8) and real estate (57%, -8).

More than two-in-five Canadians (45%, +4) trust federal leader of the opposition Pierre Poilievre to do the right thing to help the economy. The numbers are lower for both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (39%, +3) and Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem (also 39%, +4).

Poilievre’s rating as an economic manager is highest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (50%), followed by Alberta (49%), Atlantic Canada (48%), Ontario (47%), Quebec (40%) and British Columbia (also 40%).

Trudeau’s numbers are better in Quebec (44%) and Ontario (43%), but drop in British Columbia (38%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (35%), Atlantic Canada (33%) and Alberta (30%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Negative Views on Illegal Immigration Increase in United States

January 27, 2025January 26, 2025By Mario Canseco

The perception of illegal immigrants “taking jobs away from American workers” has increased by 12 points since 2020.

Vancouver, BC [January 27, 2025] – Practically half of Americans hold unfavourable views on immigration, and a majority believe illegal immigrants are detrimental to American workers, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, almost half of Americans (49%) think immigration is having a mostly negative effect in the United States, up 13 points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.

Americans aged 18-to-34 are more likely to hold unfavourable views on the effect of immigration (50%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (26%).

One-in-four Americans (25%, +1) think the number of legal immigrants who are allowed to relocate in the United States should increase, while three-in-ten (30%, +1) would prefer to see a decrease and 37% (-5) want the number to remain the same.

More than half of Americans (52%, +12) say the illegal immigrants in the United States take jobs away from American workers, while fewer than two-in-five (38%, -8) say they are employed in jobs that American workers do not want.

“Just over three-in-four Republicans (75%) and more than half of Independents (51%) believe illegal immigrants in the United States take jobs away from American workers,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 32% of Democrats share this view.”

Just over three-in-ten Americans (31%, +8) think the illegal immigrants who are currently working in the United States should be required to leave their jobs and be deported. One-in-five (21%, +2) would allow illegal immigrants to work on a temporary basis, but without a “path to citizenship”.

The proportion of Americans who would allow illegal immigrants to stay in the United States and eventually apply for citizenship fell from 49% in December 2020 to 38% in January 2025.

Most Democrats (56%) prefer the “path to citizenship” route to handle illegal immigration, while most Republicans (51%) are supportive of deportation. Independents are evenly split when assessing these options (34% for each).

Americans of Latino/Hispanic descent and African Americans are more likely to support a “path to citizenship” for illegal immigrants (50% and 47% respectively) than White Americans (34%).

Deportation is the desired course of action for Americans who get their news on a local network (41%) or on Fox News (35%). Those who watch CNN or MSNBC/CNBC are more likely to express support for the “path to citizenship” (47% and 55% respectively).

President Donald Trump begins is second term in office with an approval rating of 50%. Trump’s numbers are particularly high among Republicans (85%), Fox News watchers (67%), Americans aged 18-to-34 (60%) and White Americans (58%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from January 22 to January 24, 2025, among 1,001 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here, and download the press release here.

One-in-Four British Columbians Say They Are “Canadians Second”

January 22, 2025January 22, 2025By Mario Canseco

More than a third of respondents aged 18-to-34 think the province would be better off as its own country,

Vancouver, BC [January 22, 2025] – British Columbia’s youngest adults are more likely to look favourably at the concept of sovereignty, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 28% of British Columbians (+8 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August 2023) think the province would be better off as its own country, while 60% (-12) disagree and 12% (+3) are not sure.

While only 16% of British Columbians aged 55 and over think the province would be better off as its own country, the proportion rises to 34% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 37% among those aged 18-to-34.

“British Columbians who voted for either the BC Conservatives or the BC Greens in last year’s provincial election are more likely to hold favourable views on sovereignty (36% and 34% respectively),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 23% of those who cast ballots for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) share this view.”

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians (71%, -2) think they will stay in the province for the rest of their lives. Among those aged 18-to-34, the proportion is lower (60%, +1).

More than three-in-five British Columbians (62%, =) consider themselves “Canadians first, British Columbians second”, while 25% (+4) say they are “British Columbians first, Canadians second.”

Residents of Northern BC are more likely to say they are “British Columbians first, Canadians second” (34%) than their counterparts in Metro Vancouver (25%), Vancouver Island (also 25%), Southern BC (23%) and the Fraser Valley (18%).

Practically four-in-five British Columbians (79%, -1) say they are very proud of the province that they live in, while more than three-in-five (64%, +7) believe their views are different from the rest of Canada.

Three-in-five British Columbians (60%, +2) believe the province’s residents have more in common with the people of Seattle and Portland than with those in Toronto or Montreal.

When asked to select the best premier the province has had since August 1986, one-in-four British Columbians (25%, -5) choose John Horgan. Gordon Campbell is second on the list with 11% (+3), followed by Christy Clark (7%, =), David Eby (also 7%, +3) and Mike Harcourt (6%, =).

Just under one-in-four British Columbians (23%, +4) pick Christy Clark as the worst recent premier of the province, followed by Campbell (11%, -2), Eby (9%, +5), Bill Vander Zalm (7%, =) and Glen Clark (7%, -1).

More than half of British Columbians (52%) say they would not have liked to see Christy Clark as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada—including 61% of BC NDP voters and 51% of BC Conservative voters in last year’s provincial election.

Just over one-in-four British Columbians (26%) say they would consider voting for the federal Liberals with Clark as leader, while a majority (58%) would not.

This survey was conducted before Clark announced on social media that she would not pursue the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada at this time.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from January 10 to January 12, 2025, among a representative sample of 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Think Trump Will Have Negative Impact on the World

January 15, 2025January 22, 2025By Mario Canseco

Almost half think a Conservative federal government is preferable to properly deal with the effects of the Donald Trump presidency.

Vancouver, BC [January 15, 2025] – Most Canadians have unfavourable expectations when pondering the second presidential term of Donald Trump in the United States, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, more than half of Canadians believe Trump’s tenure as president will be negative for the world (59%), Canada (also 59%) and their province (56%).

Slightly larger proportions of Canadians also believe Trump’s term at the White House will be negative for the state of political correctness in the world (60%) and the fight against climate change (63%).

“More than a third of Canadian men (38%) think having Donald Trump as president in the United States will be positive for Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion of Canadian women who feel the same way is decidedly lower (26%).”

Majorities of Canadians aged 55 and over (75%) and aged 35-to-54 (56%) believe Trump’s term will be negative for Canada. Among Canadians aged 18-to-34, the proportion drops to 47%.

Just over half of Canadians (51%) think having Joe Biden as President of the United States since January 2021 has been “very good” or “good” for Canada. Conversely, 54% look back at Trump’s first term—from January 2017 to January 2021—and say he was “bad” or “very bad”.

When asked to rely on one of eight emotions to describe their feelings about Trump taking office as President of the United States this month, almost one-in-four Canadians (23%) outline “disgust”, while just under one-in-five (19%) express “fear”.

Other emotions used by Canadians to describe the inauguration of the next American president are “surprise” (12%), “trust” (9%), “joy” (8%), “anticipation” (8%), “sadness” (6%) and “anger” (5%).

Almost half of Canadians (46%) think a Conservative federal government would be better to properly deal with the effects of a Trump presidency, while 31% would rather have a Liberal federal government.

More than half of Albertans (55%) prefer a federal Conservative government to handle Trump. Pluralities across all other regions feel the same way, including Saskatchewan and Manitoba (49%), Ontario (also 49%), Atlantic Canada (44%), British Columbia (42%) and Quebec (41%).

More than one-in-ten Canadians (11%) say they have avoided American restaurant franchises in Canada as a result of Trump’s election. Slightly more Canadians say they have cancelled a planned trip to the United States (13%) or avoided purchasing goods originated from the United States, if a non-American alternative was available (16%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from January 3 to January 5, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Rise in Canada on Eve of Trudeau’s Resignation

January 7, 2025January 22, 2025By Mario Canseco

Majorities of voters across all regions—with the exception of Quebec—would support the opposition party in an election.

Vancouver, BC [January 7, 2025] – The federal Conservative Party amassed a sizeable lead over the governing Liberal Party in Canada, on the weekend prior to Justin Trudeau’s announced resignation as prime minister, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of decided voters in Canada would support the Conservative candidate in their riding if an election took place tomorrow, up seven points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August 2024.

The governing Liberal Party is a distant second with 21% (-4), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% (-2), the Bloc Québécois with 10% (+1), the Green Party with 3% (-3) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

The Conservatives are the most popular party for decided voters in Atlantic Canada (58%, +7), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (57%, +17) Alberta (56%, +1), British Columbia (54%, +4), and Ontario (51%, +12). In Quebec, the Bloc is first (37%, +4), followed by the Conservatives (29%, +8) and the Liberals (21%, -7).

Almost three-in-ten Canadians (29%, -3) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important concern facing the country, followed by the economy and jobs (22%, -3), health care (16%, +1), immigration (13%, +3) and the environment (6%, =).

As was the case in August 2024, Official Opposition and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has the highest approval rating among all federal leaders (52%, =). The numbers are lower for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (39%, -3), Prime Minister and Liberal leader Trudeau (34%, =), Green leader Elizabeth May (32%, -3), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (27%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (23%, -3).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Poilievre is first with 39% (+2), followed by Trudeau (21%, -1) and Singh (12%, -2).

A majority of Canadians (55%, +1) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being in charge of Canada’s economy. Just over a third (34%, =) are currently comfortable with Trudeau in this position.

The survey re-asked some questions posed to Canadians in October 2023 about possible cooperation between the Liberals and the New Democrats.

Just over two-in-five Canadians (41%, -7) would welcome a formal agreement where the Liberal Party and the NDP share power in a coalition government. Fewer are in favour of two other ideas: an agreement to only run candidates from one of the two parties in every riding in Canada in the next federal election (34%, -1) or a full merger between the two parties (33%, -3).

When Canadians ponder a vote with a merged Liberal-NDP party, the Conservatives remain ahead in scenarios with Trudeau (48% to 31%) or Singh (46% to 34%) as leaders of the new political organization.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

One-in-Four Canadians Flirt with Province Joining the USA

December 20, 2024January 8, 2025By Mario Canseco

More than three-in-ten Canadians think their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa.

Vancouver, BC [December 20, 2024] – The proportion of Canadians who believe their province would benefit from becoming an American state has increased over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, just over one-in-four Canadians (26%) think their province would be better off joining the U.S. and becoming an American state, up eight points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2023.

The notion of a province benefitting from becoming the 51st State resonates most in Alberta (30%), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (29%), Ontario (also 29%), Quebec (24%), Atlantic Canada (24%) and British Columbia (18%).

“The appeal of a province joining the United States varies greatly by age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 10% of Canadians aged 55 and over perceive benefits, the proportion rises to 27% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 40% among those aged 18-to-34.”

Just over three-in-ten Canadians (31%, +7) believe their province would be better off as its own country. More than a third of residents of Alberta (38%) and Quebec (35%) share this view.

The survey outlines a significant level of animosity towards the federal and provincial heads of government across the country. More than three-in-five Canadians (61%, +9) believe their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa.

Two thirds of Albertans (67%) and Ontarians (66%) think their province would benefit from having someone other than Justin Trudeau in charge of the federal government. Majorities of residents of Atlantic Canada (64%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%), British Columbia (57%) and Quebec (53%) concur.

Canadians aged 35-to-54 are more likely to think that their province would benefit from a change in Ottawa (65%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (62%) and those aged 55 and over (56%).

Most Canadians (57%) think their province would be better off with a different premier in charge. This sentiment is more prevalent in Ontario (65%), Alberta (64%) and Quebec (57%). Fewer residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51%), Atlantic Canada (48%) and British Columbia (47%) feel the same way.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from December 13 to December 15, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Almost Half in Canada and USA See Trump Followers as “Cult”

December 4, 2024December 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Residents of both countries are less critical when assessing people who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Vancouver, BC [December 4, 2024] – A significant proportion of Canadians and Americans hold a particularly negative view of followers of Donald Trump and the Republican Party, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, respondents in Canada and the United States were asked if it is far or unfair to refer to followers of specific people, parties and ideas as a cult.

A cult is often defined as a group which is typically led by a charismatic leader, who tightly controls its members, requiring unwavering devotion to a set of beliefs and practices which are considered outside the norms of society.

Almost half of Canadians (47%) and Americans (46%) think it is fair to refer to followers of the Republican Party and Donald Trump as a cult.

Half of Canadians aged 55 and over (50%) can describe followers of Trump and the Republicans as a cult. The numbers are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 18-to-34 (48%).

In the United States, respondents aged 55 and over are less likely to believe it is warranted for followers of Trump and the Republicans to be thought of as a cult (42%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (48%) and aged 35-to-54 (49%).

“Americans who describe themselves as Democrats (76%) and Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Paty (NDP) in 2021 (63% and 54% respectively) think it is fair to refer to followers of Trump and the Republicans as a cult,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among Republicans in the United States (41%) and Conservatives in Canada (40%).”

At least two-in-five Canadians (40%) and Americans (42%) think it is warranted to refer to people who participated in the protests and blockades against restrictions and mandates related to the COVID-19 pandemic as a cult. Slightly smaller proportions of Canadians and Americans (36% and 39% respectively) feel the same way about people who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

While 37% of Americans believe it is fair to refer to followers of the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris in the United States as a cult, the proportion drops to 30% in Canada. The results are similar for followers of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the United States (38% in the United States and 29% in Canada).

In Canada, at least a third of respondents believe it is warranted to refer to followers of the Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre (35%) and followers of the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau (33%) as cults, The proportions are lower for followers of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Jagmeet Singh (31%), followers of the People’s Party and Maxime Bernier (also 31%) and followers of the Green Party and Elizabeth May in Canada (26%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 8 to November 10, 2024, among 1,000 adults in Canada and 1,001 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for each country.

Find our data tables for Canada here, data tables for the United States here and download the press release here.

Canadians and Americans Clearly at Odds on Climate Change

November 20, 2024November 19, 2024By Mario Canseco

Residents of the United States are less likely to describe the current situation as a “major crisis” than their Canadian counterparts.

Vancouver, BC [November 20, 2024] – While just over three-in-five Canadians believe climate change is real and caused by human activity, the proportion of Americans who feel the same way has dwindled over the past two years, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 61% of Canadians say climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in July 2023.

In the United States, just over half of residents (51%, -9 since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in August 2022) believe global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities.

About a quarter of Americans and Canadians (27% and 25% respectively) think climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by natural changes, while smaller proportions (12% in the United States and 10% in Canada) say global warming is a theory that has not been proven.

More than three-in-five Canadians (63%, =) describe climate change as a “major crisis”, compared to 55% of Americans (-5).

Fewer respondents in the two countries refer to global warming as a “minor crisis” (23% in the United States and 24% in Canada) or “not a crisis at all” (13% in the United States, 9% in Canada).

Americans who voted for Republican Party presidential nominee Donald Trump in 2024 are significantly more likely to say climate change is “not a crisis at all” (25%) than those who cast ballots for Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party (3%).

In Canada, fewer than one-in-twenty Canadians who supported the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the 2021 federal election (4% and 3% respectively) think climate change is “not a crisis at all”. Among those who voted for Conservative Party candidates, the proportion rises to 21%.

Majorities of Canadians and Americans believe three entities should be doing more to deal with issues related to climate change that are happening or impacting people directly now: companies and corporations (71% in Canada and 63% in the United States), governments (64% in Canada and 62% in the United States) and individuals and consumers (55% in Canada and 58% in the United States).

The results are similar when Canadians and Americans are asked about issues related to climate change that may happen or impact people directly in the future. Majorities believe governments (69% in Canada and 63% in the United States), companies and corporations (68% in Canada and 63% in the United States) and consumers (57% in Canada and 58% in the United States) should be more active.

A final question asked Canadians and Americans about their willingness to pay higher taxes to adequately address seven issues.

More than half of Americans (55%) say they would be willing to pay higher taxes to deal with climate change. This includes three-in-four Democrats (76%), but significantly fewer Independents (45%) and Republicans (42%).

More than half of Americans expressed a willingness to pay higher taxes to adequately address schools (66%), homelessness (62%), floods (57%), forest fires (56%), housing improvements (54%) and transit improvements (51%).

In Canada, 55% of respondents are also willing to pay more to deal with global warming. More than three-in-four Canadians who voted for the Liberals or the NDP In 2021 (66% and 64% respectively) agree on this issue, but only 45% of Conservative supporters concur.

Compared to Americans, Canadians are more reticent about paying higher taxes to adequately address schools (56%), forest fires (54%), housing improvements (53%), homelessness (53%), floods (52%) and transit improvements (47%).

Find our data tables for Canada here, data tables for the United States here and download the press release here.

Americans Staunchly Divided in Close Presidential Race

November 4, 2024November 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Similar proportions of likely voters say they will be “upset” if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win the contest.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2024] – The race for the White House is in a statistical tie at the national level, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 50% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early October) would support Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris or have already voted for her, while 48% (+1) would cast a ballot for Donald Trump of the Republican Party.

Trump leads Harris among male decided voters (54% to 44%), while Harris is ahead of Trump among female decided voters (56% to 42%).

The Democratic nominee remains ahead in the Northeast (57% to 41%) and the West (56% to 41%). The Republican contender holds the upper hand in the South (53% to 46%) and the Midwest (51% to 47%).

Harris remains the preferred candidate for decided voters who are African American (75%) or Hispanic / Latino (60%), while Trump is the first choice for white decided voters (57%).

“Whoever emerges victorious in the American presidential election will inherit an extremely polarized electorate,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Significant proportions of Americans claim they will be very upset if Trump (50%) or Harris (49%) win the election.”

The main motivator for American decided voters is the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (40%), followed by the candidate’s political party (21%), a desire for change (18%), a desire for stability (14%) and disgust with other contenders (10%).

Across the United States, 47% of likely voters expect a clear or close win for Harris in the presidential election, while 42% believe Trump will experience a clear or close win.

Just over two-in-five American likely voters (41%) expect to witness the winning candidate declare victory on Election Night (Nov. 5), but only 25% foresee a concession speech from the defeated candidate on that same night.

American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential nominees is best suited to manage 13 different issues.

Trump holds the upper hand over Harris on five issues: immigration (50% to 40%), national defense (50% to 40%), energy and oil (48% to 40%), the economy (48% to 44%) and foreign policy (47% to 42%).

Harris is ahead of Trump on four issues: health care (52% to 37%), the environment (51% to 35%), race relations (51% to 35%) and education (51% to 37%).

The two candidates are tied or virtually tied on four other issues: job creation (Harris 45%, Trump 45%), government accountability (Harris 44%, Trump 43%), managing the deficit (Trump 43%, Harris 42%) and crime (Trump 46%, Harris 43%),

President Joe Biden heads to the final stages of his term with an approval rating of 45% (+1). While just over four-in-five Democrats are satisfied with Biden’s performance (81%), the proportions are decidedly lower among Independents (36%) and Republicans (11%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2024, among 1,003 likely voters in the United States and 962 decided voters in the 2024 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here, and download the press release here.