Grits and Tories Are in Statistical Tie Ahead of Canadian Election

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh closes the campaign with the highest approval rating and momentum score of all federal leaders.

Vancouver, BC [October 20, 2019] – A jump in voter support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois has affected the fortunes of Canada’s two major political parties on the eve of the country’s federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of decided voters (-4 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late September) would cast a ballot for the Liberal Party’s contender in their constituency.

The Conservative Party remains a close second with 31% (-2), followed by the NDP with 19% (+4), the Green Party with 8% (-1), the Bloc with 7% (+2) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

“In September, the Liberals enjoyed a six-point lead among female decided voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now, partly due to a surge in support for the New Democrats, the governing party is practically tied with the Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the Conservative Party continues to dominate in Alberta (61%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%). In both Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Liberal Party is in first place (39% and 34% respectively).

An extremely close race developed in British Columbia, with each of the three major parties garnering the support of more than a quarter of decided voters, with the Greens at 14%.

In Quebec, where the Liberals had a 14-point advantage over the Bloc in September, the election has also tightened considerably. The Liberals now stand at 34% (-3), while the Bloc has jumped to 32% (+9)

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh heads to tomorrow’s election with the highest approval rating of all leaders at 57% (up 15 points since late September).

The numbers held steady for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, unchanged) and Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, also unchanged). 

The approval rating for incumbent Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau improved by three points to 44%, while his disapproval numbers dropped by the same margin to 51%. 

The lowest ranked leader is once again Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (18%, +1).

Singh is the only party leader to post a positive momentum score (+20), with almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) saying their opinion of the NDP leader has improved since the start of the campaign.

Bernier has the lowest momentum score (-25), with Trudeau at -24,  Scheer at -21 and May at -5.

When asked which one of the main party leaders would make the “Best Prime Minister”, Trudeau remains in first place with 30% (-3), followed by Scheer with 23% (-1) and Singh with 21% (+8). The other contenders are in single digits.

Trudeau holds a nine-point edge over Scheer on the “Best Prime Minister” question among men (33% to 24%) and a six-point lead among women (28% to 22%). 

Singh gets his best numbers on this question with women (26%, just two points behind Trudeau) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (32%, eight points ahead of Trudeau).

About one-in-four Canadians (24%, +3) think the economy and jobs is the top issue facing Canada, followed by the environment (20%, -2), health care (also 20%, +2) and housing, homelessness and poverty (16%, -1).

The way Canada’s regions feel about issues did not go through any radical shifts since late September. Housing, homelessness and poverty is still most pressing concern for British Columbians (28%), while the environment is especially important for Quebecers (31%).

As was the case last month, health care is the top issue in Atlantic Canada (36%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (22%), while the economy and jobs takes precedence in Alberta (37%) and Ontario (27%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 18 to October 20, 2019, among 957 Canadian adults, including 890 decided voters in the 2019 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians Would Make Federal Election Day a Holiday

A majority of respondents also want local candidates to participate in at least one debate in their constituency.

Vancouver, BC [October 10, 2019] – A significant proportion of Canadians would like to have an entire day to cast ballots in a federal election without having to show up for school or work, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, almost three-in-five Canadians (58%) agree with declaring election day a public holiday in Canada. 

A third of Canadians (32%) are not in favour of this idea, and 11% are undecided.

“Canadians aged 18-to-34 (72%) are significantly more likely to concur with the notion of making election day a holiday,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Canadians aged 35-to-54 (57%) and those over the age of 55 (48%) are not as enthusiastic.” 

Sizeable majorities of Canadians who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (70%), the Liberal Party (66%) and the Conservative Party (63%) would welcome this change.

A majority of Canadians (62%) believe voting should be mandatory in federal elections, while 29% disagree and 9% are undecided.

Residents aged 55 and over (68%) and Quebecers (67%) are more likely to be in favour of compulsory voting in elections to the House of Commons.

Almost seven-in-ten Canadians (69%) believe it should be mandatory for candidates to attend at least one public debate in their riding with the candidates from other parties, while 18% disagree and 13% are undecided.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 24 to September 26, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals and Conservatives Gain in Canadian Federal Campaign

Justin Trudeau holds a nine-point advantage over Andrew Scheer in the “Best Prime Minister” question.

Vancouver, BC [September 28, 2019] – The two main federal parties in Canada increased their level of voter support over the past couple of months, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 36% of decided voters (+2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in July) would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their riding in next month’s federal election.

The Conservative Party remains in second place with 33% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% (-2), the Green Party with 9% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 5% (+1) and the People’s Party with 2% (-1).

The two main parties hold the same level of support among male decided voters (36% for each), while the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives among women (36% to 30%).

Voters aged 18-to-34 currently prefer the Liberals (35%, with the Conservatives at 22% and the NDP at 20%). The Liberals are barely ahead among voters aged 35-to-54 (36% to 34%), while the Tories hold the same edge among voters aged 55 and over (38% to 36%).

“The Conservatives are keeping more than four-in-five decided voters (84%) who supported the party in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is not as respectable at this point for the NDP (71%) and the Liberals (68%).”

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau remains at 41%, with more than half of Canadians (54%, +4) disapproving of his performance.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh improved his standing by seven points and is now at 42%. The approval rating is higher for Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, +2) and lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, +2). Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party dropped to 17% (-4).

Trudeau posted the lowest momentum score at -34, with 46% of Canadians saying their opinion of the incumbent prime minister has worsened since the start of the campaign. Bernier (-24) and Scheer (-17) also had negative numbers. Singh is the only leader with a positive momentum score (+3), while May is even.

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Trudeau is first with 33%, followed by Scheer with 24%, Singh with 13% and May with 9%.

The environment is now the top issue facing Canada at 22% (+6), followed by the economy and jobs (21%, +2), health care (18%, -1) and housing, homelessness and poverty (17%, +4).

Health care is identified as the top issue in Atlantic Canada (33%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%), while the environment is top among Quebecers (33%). Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter for British Columbians (24%), while the economy and jobs is first in Alberta (38%) and Ontario (23%).

Trudeau is the preferred leader to handle foreign affairs (32%)  health care (28%), and housing, homelessness and poverty (25%). May is clearly ahead on the environment (28%, with Trudeau at 21%)

The Liberal and Conservative leaders are tied or virtually even on four issues: crime and public safety (Scheer 26%, Trudeau 25%), economy and jobs (Trudeau 28%, Scheer 27%), energy and pipelines (Trudeau 25%, Scheer 25%) and accountability and leadership (Scheer 25%, Trudeau 24%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 24 to September 26, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

Health care remains the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives are still in first place as voters in Manitoba prepare to participate in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 44% of decided voters (-2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late August) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains in second place with 31% (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 16% (+2) and the Green Party with 7% (-1).

The Progressive Conservatives hold their best numbers with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%) and men (50%). The New Democrats are ahead among voters aged 18-to-34 (33%).

While the race is tied in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (34% for each of the two main contending parties), the Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead in the rest of the province (55%, with the NDP at 28%).

“Practically four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (79%) say they will not change their mind before casting their ballot,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This proportion includes 84% of those who are planning to support the governing Progressive Conservatives.”

Three-in-ten Manitobans (30%, -4) believe incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister would make the best head of government for the province.

NDP and Official Opposition leader Wab Kinew is second with 19% (+2), followed by Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party with 16% (+6) and James Beddome of the Green Party with 8% (+4). More than one-in-four of the province’s residents (27%, -7) are undecided on this question.

Health care (38%, -10) remains the most important issue facing the province for Manitobans, followed by the economy and jobs (19%, +8), crime and public safety (10%, -4) and the environment (9%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 6 to September 9, 2019 among 536 Manitoba adults, including 483 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.5 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba

On the “Best Premier” question, Brian Pallister leads Wab Kinew by a 2-to-1 margin.

Vancouver, BC [August 30, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives head to the final stages of the provincial electoral campaign in Manitoba as the frontrunners, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 46% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 30%, followed by the Liberal Party with 14% and the Green Party with 8%.

The Progressive Conservatives are particularly popular with male voters (51%), those aged 55 and over (54%) and those who do not live in Winnipeg (58%).

“Seven-in-ten decided voters (72%) say they will not change their mind before election day in Manitoba,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This includes 83% of those who plan to support the Progressive Conservatives and 76% of those who plan to vote for the NDP.”

Almost half of Manitobans (48%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province today. Crime and public safety (14%) and the economy and jobs (11%) are the only other issues that reach double digits.

Two-in-five Manitobans (40%) approve of the way Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Brian Pallister is handling his job, while 47% disapprove.

The approval rating is lower for Official Opposition and NDP leader Wab Kinew (33%), Liberal leader Dougald Lamont (25%) and Green leader James Beddome (22%).

When asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, a third of Manitobans (34%) select Pallister. Kinew is a distant second with 17%, followed by Lamont (10%) and Beddome (4%). A third of the province’s residents (34%) are undecided.

All four party leaders have a negative momentum score, which is calculated by assessing the proportions of residents who say their views of each leader have improved or worsened since the start of the campaign. Beddome (-2) and Lamont (-4) fare better than Kinew (-12) and Pallister (-19), 

On issues, Pallister is seen as the best leader to handle the economy and jobs (35%), government accountability (34%), energy (33%),  crime and public safety (32%), education (30%), health care (29%) and the environment (23%). 

Kinew is ahead of the incumbent premier on managing housing, homelessness and poverty (30%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 27 to August 29, 2019 among 586 Manitoba adults, including 498 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca