Dead Heat in British Columbia’s Electoral Reform Referendum

Millennials are more likely to support changing the system, while Baby Boomers are keener on leaving things as they are.

Vancouver, BC [November 21, 2018] – There is no clear favourite as voters in British Columbia ponder their options in the referendum on electoral reform, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians, 40% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for the current First Past the Post system, while 40% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for a proportional representation system.

Across the province, 15% of voters are undecided, including 20% of women, 19% of those aged 18-to-34 and 18% of those aged 35-to-54.

“A majority of voters aged 55 and over (57%) hold extremely favourable views of the current system,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In stark contrast, more than half of those aged 18-to-34 (53%) prefer proportional representation.”

Most British Columbians who plan to vote to keep the current First Past the Post system cite confusion with the options that are on the ballot (57%) as the main reason for their decision. Three-in-ten of these voters (31%) also consider that the existing system is fair because candidates need to win the election in their riding.

Conversely, almost half of proportional representation supporters (48%) think this system is fairer because the share of the votes a party receives is reflected in the number of seats it has in the legislature. Two-in-five of these voters (40%) also think the current system does not work for everybody and needs to be changed.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2018, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Tight Senate Races Developing in Arizona and Florida

The gubernatorial contests in Ohio and Wisconsin are also very close in the final days of campaigning. 

Vancouver, BC [November 5, 2018] – Residents of two American states are headed to this year’s mid-term election with closely contested U.S. Senate races, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in five American states.

The surveys also show remarkably tight contests in three gubernatorial elections.

Arizona

In the race to take over the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Jeff Flake in Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally are locked in an extremely close race (50% to 49% among decided voters)

Incumbent Republican Doug Ducey seems headed for re-election as the Governor of the Grand Canyon State, with a 14-point lead over Democratic rival David Garcia (57% to 41% among decided voters).

Florida

Democrat Bill Nelson’s quest for a fourth-term in the United States Senate could see the closest race of his career. Nelson holds a two-point edge over Republican Rick Scott (51% to 49%).

In the Sunshine State’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Andrew Gillum is also ahead of Republican Ron DeSantis by two points (50% to 48%).

New Mexico

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich is first in New Mexico (52% among decided voters), followed by Republican Mick Rich (36%) and Libertarian Gary Johnson (12%).

In the contest to replace New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham holds a 12-point advantage over Republican challenger Steve Pearce (56% to 44% among decided voters).

Ohio

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown has a sizeable lead over Republican challenger Jim Renacci in the Buckeye State (58% to 42% among decided voters).

The race for governor is extremely tight, with both Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine supported by 49% of decided voters in Ohio.

Wisconsin

Incumbent U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin appears headed to a new term in office, with a 12-point advantage over Republican rival Leah Vukmir in the Badger State (56% to 44% among decided voters).

The election for Governor is very close, with Democratic challenger Tony Evers barely ahead of incumbent Republican Scott Walker (49% to 48% among decided voters).

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from November 1 to November 3, 2018, among representative samples of 450 voters in five American states: Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: R.Hood Photography

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Democrats Heavily Favoured in Six U.S. Senate Races

Incumbents lead in California, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2018] – Several members of the United States Senate appear ready to return to Washington D.C. after this year’s mid-term election, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in five American states.

The surveys also show Democratic Party candidates edging out Republican challengers in five gubernatorial races.

California

As was the case in 2016, the race for the U.S. Senate in the Golden State features two Democratic contenders. Incumbent Dianne Feinstein (62%) is ahead of challenger Kevin de León (38%).

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom holds a 20-point lead over Republican rival John Cox among decided voters in California (60% to 40%).

Michigan

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow appears headed for a third term in office, with a 17-point lead over Republican John James (58% to 41%) in the Great Lakes State.

In the contest to replace Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, Democratic candidate Gretchen Whitmer is ahead of Republican Bill Schuette (52% to 47% among decided voters).

Minnesota

Incumbent U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of the Democratic Party holds a comfortable lead over Republican Jim Newberger in the North Star State (60% to 38%).

In the special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated after the resignation of Al Franken, Democrat Tina Smith is ahead of Republican Karin Housley (55% to 43%).

Democratic candidate Tim Walz is in a good position to replace fellow party member Mark Dayton as Governor of Minnesota. Walz holds a seven-point lead over Republican Jeff Johnson (53% to 46%).

New York

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would earn a new term in the U.S. Senate representing the Empire State, with a sizeable advantage over Republican Chele Chiavacci Farley (66% to 34%).

Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo of the Democratic Party holds a 19-point lead over Republican contender Marc Molinaro (58% to 39%) in New York.

Pennsylvania

Democrat Bob Casey Jr. would win a third consecutive election to the U.S. Senate in the Keystone State. Casey holds a 17-point lead over Republican rival Lou Barletta (58% to 41%).

Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf is 15 points ahead of Republican challenger Scott Wagner (57% to 42%) in Pennsylvania.

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from November 1 to November 3, 2018, among representative samples of 450 voters in five American states: California, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: R.Hood Photography

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Mixed Reviews for Departing City Halls in Vancouver and Surrey

Most residents express disappointment with the current influence of developers on their municipal governments.

Vancouver, BC [October 19, 2018] – Residents of Vancouver and Surrey hold differing views about the pressing concerns affecting their municipalities and the performance of the current governments, a new Research Co. poll conducted for CTV Vancouver has found.

The online survey of representative samples shows that two thirds of Vancouver residents (67%) believe housing is the most important issue facing the city, followed by transportation (9%), poverty (also 9%) and economic development (5%).

In Surrey, 30% of residents believe housing is the most important issue, followed closely by crime (29%), transportation (20%) and poverty (7%).

“The views of Surrey residents vary greatly depending on where they live,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Newton, concerns about crime are higher than anywhere else in the city, while in Cloverdale residents are more worried about transportation.”

The survey also asked residents whether the current municipal government is doing a “good job” or a “bad job” handling various matters.

In Vancouver, the best rated government competencies are promoting tourism to the city (74%), providing good sanitation services (68%), fostering artistic and cultural activities (58%) and protecting the environment (55%).

The rating is significantly lower for managing economic development ang growth (24%), dealing with homelessness and poverty (14%) and dealing with housing (10%).

Surrey gets its best marks on sanitation (68%) and arts and culture promotion (63%), but fewer than one-in-four residents are satisfied with how crime (22%), homelessness and poverty (also 22%) and housing (also 22%) have been dealt with.

Perceptions on housing affordability are especially dire in the two municipalities, with 90% of Vancouver residents and 87% of Surrey residents saying the situation is worse than it was four years ago.

A majority of City of Vancouver residents also believe quality of life (53%) and the influence of developers at City Hall (also 53%) is worse than it was in 2014. In addition, two thirds of Vancouverites (65%) say they do not like where Vancouver is going and think we need to change the course at City Hall.

In Surrey, more than half of residents (52%) say the influence of developers at City Hall is worse than it was four years ago, and a similarly high proportion (48%) feel the same way about public safety. Three-in-five residents of Surrey (60%) think it is time to change the course at City Hall.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver and 400 adults in the City of Surrey. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each city. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for both samples, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data sets for Vancouver and Surrey and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart Keeps Lead as Vancouver Mayoral Election Looms

More than half of voters are considering independent candidates for City Council.

Vancouver, BC [October 16, 2018] – Independent candidate Kennedy Stewart remains ahead as Vancouver’s mayoral campaign enters its final days, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver voters reproduced the ballot that will be used in the mayoral election, with the names of all 21 candidates listed in the order that was drawn last month.

In the survey, 36% of decided voters (+2 since early October) said they will vote for Stewart or have already voted for him in the advance polls.

Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is second with 23% (+3), followed closely by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 19% (+3).

Support is currently lower for Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver (6%, -4), Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (6%, -1), Fred Harding of VANCOUVER 1st (2%, -2) and David Chen of ProVancouver (2%, -5).

One third of voters in the City of Vancouver (33%) are undecided, including 41% of those aged 18-to-34 and 43% of women.

“Many Vancouver voters are still making up their minds about the candidates and parties they will support on October 20,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This group includes three-in-ten of those who voted for Kirk LaPointe in the last mayoral election, and more than a quarter of those who cast a ballot for Gregor Robertson.”

Sim and Stewart are virtually tied among male decided voters (32% and 31% respectively), while Stewart leads among female decided voters (42%, followed by Sylvester at 25%).

When it comes to the election for City Council, more than half of voters in Vancouver (53%) say they are “definitely” or “probably” considering voting for independent candidates.

The parties with the highest level of consideration for City Council from Vancouver voters are the Greens (47%), the NPA (35%), the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (34%), Vision Vancouver (29%) and OneCity (27%).

Consideration is currently lower for City Council candidates representing YES Vancouver (18%), VANCOUVER 1st (also 18%), Coalition Vancouver (also 18%) and ProVancouver (16%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2018, among 401 voters in the City of Vancouver, including 265 decided voters in the 2018 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 6.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca