Americans Split on Pelosi’s Ripping of State of the Union Address

Just over a third of Americans think Donald Trump has accomplished much since he became President.

Vancouver, BC [February 6, 2020] – Americans are divided when assessing’s the decision of House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to rip her copy of the State of the Union address in half after President Donald Trump finished his delivery, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of Americans think the actions of the Speaker were “unjustified”, while 42% consider them “justified.”

“More than three-in-four Democrats (77%) stand by the Speaker, while a comparable proportion of Republicans (76%) suggest that she was out of line,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Independents are more likely to believe that Pelosi’s actions were unjustified (48%) than justified (36%).”

About two thirds of Americans were exposed to the latest State of the Union address, with 33% observing it in its entirety, 23% seeing parts of it and 11% only watching reports in the media.

Respondents who were familiar with the State of the Union were asked to select four feelings to describe the speech. The top emotions selected were pride (26%), enthusiasm (23%), trust (21%) and disgust (21%).

Sizeable proportions of Republicans said the speech elicited pride (53%), enthusiasm (47%) and trust (46%). Conversely, the most mentioned emotions by Democrats were disgust (33%) anger (27%) and shame (26%).

More than a third of Americans (35%, including 71% of Republicans) believe that Donald Trump has accomplished much since he became President. More than two-in-five (44%, including 67% of Democrats) think Trump has accomplished little since taking office.

The approval rating for President Trump stands at 45%, up seven points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in January 2019. Half of Americans (51%, -7) currently disapprove of his performance.

Two-in-five Americans (41%) believe Trump deserves re-election as president, while 55% disagree—including 84% of Democrats and 59% of Independents.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on February 5, 2020, among 1,000 American adults. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: Ingfbruno

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Canadian Voters Are Open to Proportional Representation

Two-in-five would welcome implementing the mixed member system for the next election to the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2019] – A significant proportion of Canadian voters would be open to conducting the next federal ballot under a different electoral system, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who cast a ballot in this year’s federal election, 51% of respondents would agree to elect all members of the House of Commons through party-list proportional representation.

Under this system, parties make lists of candidates to be elected, and seats get allocated to each party in accordance with the number of total votes the party receives.

Majorities of voters in Quebec and Alberta (58% in each province) would be open to electing their Members of Parliament this way. Party-list proportional representation would also be endorsed by 59% of voters aged 18-to-34.

Views on the mixed member proportional representation system are more nuanced, with 39% of Canadian voters agreeing with its implementation for elections to the House of Commons. Just under three-in-ten (28%) disagree and a 33% are undecided.

Under this system, a hybrid method is utilized with the first-past-the-post system for a portion of the legislature, and party-list proportional representation for a another.

Respondents were also asked how they would have voted if the most recent Canadian election had been held under each one of these systems.

In an election held with party-list proportional representation, the Conservative Party would have finished in first place with the support of 33% of decided voters, followed by the Liberal Party with 32%, the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18%, the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois each with 6%, and the People’s Party with 4%.

“While the level of support does not change dramatically for the five parties that will be represented in the incoming House of Commons under the party-list proportional representation system, there are some differences,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support for the Liberals is slightly higher in British Columbia than it was on Election Day, and in Ontario, the Conservatives would fare significantly better.”

When asked who would get their party vote under a mixed member proportional representation system, a third of decided voters (34%) would support the Liberal list, followed by the Conservatives with 31%, the New Democrats with 17%, the Greens with 7%, the Bloc with 6% and the People’s Party with 3%.

In a mixed member election, Liberals and Conservatives would retain practically nine-in-ten of their voters under the first-past-the-post system for the other portion of the legislature.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 20 to October 21, 2019, among 803 adults in Canada who voted in the federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Canadian Voters “Happy” With Liberal Minority Scenario

Most voters would welcome an alliance or agreement involving the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [October 22, 2019] – Canadian voters who participated in the 43rd federal election are divided in their assessment of the incoming House of Commons, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who cast a ballot in this year’s federal election, 49% of voters say they are happy with the expected outcome of the democratic process: a minority government led by the Liberal Party. A similar proportion of Canadian voters (45%) are “upset” with this scenario.

“Voters aged 18-to-34 (52%) are more content with the outcome of the election than those aged 35-to-54 (46%) and those aged 55 and over (47%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of Quebecers (57%) and Atlantic Canadians (56%) are also happy with the prospect of a minority Liberal government, while 55% of Albertans and 52% of residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are upset.”

More than half of Canadian voters (56%) said they would be “happy” if the New Democratic Party (NDP) is included in an alliance or agreement to support another party in the House of Commons.

A smaller proportion of Canadian voters (47%) would welcome a similar role for the Green Party in the lower house. Conversely, only 20% of Canadian voters would be “happy” with the Bloc Québécois participating in any alliance or agreement in the House of Commons. 

Canadian voters were also asked about the possibility of uniting the centre-left parties. The most popular proposal is a formal merger between the Liberal Party and the NDP, which would make 46% of Canadians “happy”—including 69% of Liberal voters and 73% of NDP voters.

Possible mergers involving other combinations are not as popular, including one with Liberals, New Democrats and the Green Party (43%), one with New Democrats and Greens (37%), and one with Liberals and Greens (36%).

In addition, 71% of Canadian voters believe that the party that wins the most seats should form the government—a proportion that includes 84% of Conservative voters and 72% of Liberal voters.

Two thirds of Canadian voters (67%) believed it was time for a change of government in Canada. This sentiment is highest in two regions where the Conservative Party was particularly popular this year: Alberta (83%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (77%).

One third of Canadian voters (32%) say they cast a ballot for a candidate that was not their first choice, but that they perceived as having the best chance to defeat a party that they really do not like in their constituency.

Canadian voters aged 18-to-34 appear to have voted strategically (43%) more often than those aged 35-to-54 (30%) and those aged 55 and over (25%). On a regional basis, more than a third of Quebecers (36%) and Atlantic Canadians (42%) cast their ballot this way.

While the main motivator for Canadian voters was the party’s ideas and policies (27%), there are some differences among the federal parties.

About one-in-five Liberal voters (19%) and Bloc Québécois voters (22%) were primarily motivated by the party’s leader. Conservative voters had desire for change (17%) and disgust with other candidates (16%) as bigger influences, and 15% of New Democrat voters were motivated by the candidate in their riding.

A majority of Conservative voters (61%) think Andrew Scheer should remain as leader of the party. 

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 20 to October 21, 2019, among 803 adults in Canada who voted in the federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Grits and Tories Are in Statistical Tie Ahead of Canadian Election

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh closes the campaign with the highest approval rating and momentum score of all federal leaders.

Vancouver, BC [October 20, 2019] – A jump in voter support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois has affected the fortunes of Canada’s two major political parties on the eve of the country’s federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of decided voters (-4 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late September) would cast a ballot for the Liberal Party’s contender in their constituency.

The Conservative Party remains a close second with 31% (-2), followed by the NDP with 19% (+4), the Green Party with 8% (-1), the Bloc with 7% (+2) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

“In September, the Liberals enjoyed a six-point lead among female decided voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now, partly due to a surge in support for the New Democrats, the governing party is practically tied with the Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the Conservative Party continues to dominate in Alberta (61%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%). In both Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Liberal Party is in first place (39% and 34% respectively).

An extremely close race developed in British Columbia, with each of the three major parties garnering the support of more than a quarter of decided voters, with the Greens at 14%.

In Quebec, where the Liberals had a 14-point advantage over the Bloc in September, the election has also tightened considerably. The Liberals now stand at 34% (-3), while the Bloc has jumped to 32% (+9)

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh heads to tomorrow’s election with the highest approval rating of all leaders at 57% (up 15 points since late September).

The numbers held steady for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, unchanged) and Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, also unchanged). 

The approval rating for incumbent Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau improved by three points to 44%, while his disapproval numbers dropped by the same margin to 51%. 

The lowest ranked leader is once again Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (18%, +1).

Singh is the only party leader to post a positive momentum score (+20), with almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) saying their opinion of the NDP leader has improved since the start of the campaign.

Bernier has the lowest momentum score (-25), with Trudeau at -24,  Scheer at -21 and May at -5.

When asked which one of the main party leaders would make the “Best Prime Minister”, Trudeau remains in first place with 30% (-3), followed by Scheer with 23% (-1) and Singh with 21% (+8). The other contenders are in single digits.

Trudeau holds a nine-point edge over Scheer on the “Best Prime Minister” question among men (33% to 24%) and a six-point lead among women (28% to 22%). 

Singh gets his best numbers on this question with women (26%, just two points behind Trudeau) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (32%, eight points ahead of Trudeau).

About one-in-four Canadians (24%, +3) think the economy and jobs is the top issue facing Canada, followed by the environment (20%, -2), health care (also 20%, +2) and housing, homelessness and poverty (16%, -1).

The way Canada’s regions feel about issues did not go through any radical shifts since late September. Housing, homelessness and poverty is still most pressing concern for British Columbians (28%), while the environment is especially important for Quebecers (31%).

As was the case last month, health care is the top issue in Atlantic Canada (36%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (22%), while the economy and jobs takes precedence in Alberta (37%) and Ontario (27%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 18 to October 20, 2019, among 957 Canadian adults, including 890 decided voters in the 2019 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians Would Make Federal Election Day a Holiday

A majority of respondents also want local candidates to participate in at least one debate in their constituency.

Vancouver, BC [October 10, 2019] – A significant proportion of Canadians would like to have an entire day to cast ballots in a federal election without having to show up for school or work, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, almost three-in-five Canadians (58%) agree with declaring election day a public holiday in Canada. 

A third of Canadians (32%) are not in favour of this idea, and 11% are undecided.

“Canadians aged 18-to-34 (72%) are significantly more likely to concur with the notion of making election day a holiday,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Canadians aged 35-to-54 (57%) and those over the age of 55 (48%) are not as enthusiastic.” 

Sizeable majorities of Canadians who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (70%), the Liberal Party (66%) and the Conservative Party (63%) would welcome this change.

A majority of Canadians (62%) believe voting should be mandatory in federal elections, while 29% disagree and 9% are undecided.

Residents aged 55 and over (68%) and Quebecers (67%) are more likely to be in favour of compulsory voting in elections to the House of Commons.

Almost seven-in-ten Canadians (69%) believe it should be mandatory for candidates to attend at least one public debate in their riding with the candidates from other parties, while 18% disagree and 13% are undecided.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 24 to September 26, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals and Conservatives Gain in Canadian Federal Campaign

Justin Trudeau holds a nine-point advantage over Andrew Scheer in the “Best Prime Minister” question.

Vancouver, BC [September 28, 2019] – The two main federal parties in Canada increased their level of voter support over the past couple of months, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 36% of decided voters (+2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in July) would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their riding in next month’s federal election.

The Conservative Party remains in second place with 33% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% (-2), the Green Party with 9% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 5% (+1) and the People’s Party with 2% (-1).

The two main parties hold the same level of support among male decided voters (36% for each), while the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives among women (36% to 30%).

Voters aged 18-to-34 currently prefer the Liberals (35%, with the Conservatives at 22% and the NDP at 20%). The Liberals are barely ahead among voters aged 35-to-54 (36% to 34%), while the Tories hold the same edge among voters aged 55 and over (38% to 36%).

“The Conservatives are keeping more than four-in-five decided voters (84%) who supported the party in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is not as respectable at this point for the NDP (71%) and the Liberals (68%).”

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau remains at 41%, with more than half of Canadians (54%, +4) disapproving of his performance.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh improved his standing by seven points and is now at 42%. The approval rating is higher for Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, +2) and lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, +2). Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party dropped to 17% (-4).

Trudeau posted the lowest momentum score at -34, with 46% of Canadians saying their opinion of the incumbent prime minister has worsened since the start of the campaign. Bernier (-24) and Scheer (-17) also had negative numbers. Singh is the only leader with a positive momentum score (+3), while May is even.

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Trudeau is first with 33%, followed by Scheer with 24%, Singh with 13% and May with 9%.

The environment is now the top issue facing Canada at 22% (+6), followed by the economy and jobs (21%, +2), health care (18%, -1) and housing, homelessness and poverty (17%, +4).

Health care is identified as the top issue in Atlantic Canada (33%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%), while the environment is top among Quebecers (33%). Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter for British Columbians (24%), while the economy and jobs is first in Alberta (38%) and Ontario (23%).

Trudeau is the preferred leader to handle foreign affairs (32%)  health care (28%), and housing, homelessness and poverty (25%). May is clearly ahead on the environment (28%, with Trudeau at 21%)

The Liberal and Conservative leaders are tied or virtually even on four issues: crime and public safety (Scheer 26%, Trudeau 25%), economy and jobs (Trudeau 28%, Scheer 27%), energy and pipelines (Trudeau 25%, Scheer 25%) and accountability and leadership (Scheer 25%, Trudeau 24%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 24 to September 26, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

Health care remains the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives are still in first place as voters in Manitoba prepare to participate in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 44% of decided voters (-2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late August) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains in second place with 31% (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 16% (+2) and the Green Party with 7% (-1).

The Progressive Conservatives hold their best numbers with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%) and men (50%). The New Democrats are ahead among voters aged 18-to-34 (33%).

While the race is tied in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (34% for each of the two main contending parties), the Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead in the rest of the province (55%, with the NDP at 28%).

“Practically four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (79%) say they will not change their mind before casting their ballot,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This proportion includes 84% of those who are planning to support the governing Progressive Conservatives.”

Three-in-ten Manitobans (30%, -4) believe incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister would make the best head of government for the province.

NDP and Official Opposition leader Wab Kinew is second with 19% (+2), followed by Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party with 16% (+6) and James Beddome of the Green Party with 8% (+4). More than one-in-four of the province’s residents (27%, -7) are undecided on this question.

Health care (38%, -10) remains the most important issue facing the province for Manitobans, followed by the economy and jobs (19%, +8), crime and public safety (10%, -4) and the environment (9%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 6 to September 9, 2019 among 536 Manitoba adults, including 483 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.5 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba

On the “Best Premier” question, Brian Pallister leads Wab Kinew by a 2-to-1 margin.

Vancouver, BC [August 30, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives head to the final stages of the provincial electoral campaign in Manitoba as the frontrunners, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 46% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 30%, followed by the Liberal Party with 14% and the Green Party with 8%.

The Progressive Conservatives are particularly popular with male voters (51%), those aged 55 and over (54%) and those who do not live in Winnipeg (58%).

“Seven-in-ten decided voters (72%) say they will not change their mind before election day in Manitoba,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This includes 83% of those who plan to support the Progressive Conservatives and 76% of those who plan to vote for the NDP.”

Almost half of Manitobans (48%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province today. Crime and public safety (14%) and the economy and jobs (11%) are the only other issues that reach double digits.

Two-in-five Manitobans (40%) approve of the way Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Brian Pallister is handling his job, while 47% disapprove.

The approval rating is lower for Official Opposition and NDP leader Wab Kinew (33%), Liberal leader Dougald Lamont (25%) and Green leader James Beddome (22%).

When asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, a third of Manitobans (34%) select Pallister. Kinew is a distant second with 17%, followed by Lamont (10%) and Beddome (4%). A third of the province’s residents (34%) are undecided.

All four party leaders have a negative momentum score, which is calculated by assessing the proportions of residents who say their views of each leader have improved or worsened since the start of the campaign. Beddome (-2) and Lamont (-4) fare better than Kinew (-12) and Pallister (-19), 

On issues, Pallister is seen as the best leader to handle the economy and jobs (35%), government accountability (34%), energy (33%),  crime and public safety (32%), education (30%), health care (29%) and the environment (23%). 

Kinew is ahead of the incumbent premier on managing housing, homelessness and poverty (30%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 27 to August 29, 2019 among 586 Manitoba adults, including 498 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians Think Trump Presidency Has Been Bad for Canada

Justin Trudeau leads Andrew Scheer by a 2-to-1 margin on being best suited to deal with the current American president.

Vancouver, BC [June 19, 2019] – Most people in Canada regard the presidency of Donald Trump in a negative light, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 65% of Canadians think having Trump as President of the United States has been “bad” or “very bad” for Canada.

Negative views on the effect of Trump’s tenure on Canada are highest among women (68%), those aged 55 and over (69%), Quebecers (71%) and British Columbians (73%).

“Only 17% of Canadians think Trump’s presidency has been good for Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Albertans (32%) and people who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2015 federal election (30%) are more likely to have positive views on Trump’s term so far.”

When asked which one of the two main federal party leaders is better suited to handle Trump and Canada’s relationship with the United States, 35% of respondents select Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau, while 17% pick Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer.

In Alberta, Scheer outranks Trudeau on this question (28% to 16%), but the incumbent prime minister is ahead of his key rival in all other regions of the country, including Quebec (40% to 17%), Ontario (33% to 20%) and British Columbia (35% to 19%).

Two-in-five Canadians (40%) think Trump has performed “worse” than they expected since becoming president, while 46% believe he has done “about the same” as they envisioned.

Only 10% of Canadians believe Trump has “accomplished much” since he became president. Significant proportions of residents think the current White House occupant has “accomplished little” (37%) or believe it is too early to judge his achievements (39%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 31 to June 3, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservatives Extend Their Lead in Alberta

Opposition leader Jason Kenney has overtaken incumbent Rachel Notley as the “Best Premier” for the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 15, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) has extended its advantage in the final stages of the provincial campaign in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta (+4 since a Research Co. poll completed in early April) would support the UCP candidate in their riding in tomorrow’s provincial ballot.

The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 39% (-1), followed by the Alberta Party with 9% (+3) and the Liberal Party with 2% (-1). Two per cent of decided voters would back other parties or candidates.

The level of undecided voters across Alberta has dropped from 22% in early April to 10% in this survey. In the rural areas of the province, only 9% of residents are currently undecided (compared to 27% earlier this month).

Among decided voters, the UCP holds sizeable advantages over the NDP in three distinct demographics: men (57% to 29%), Albertans aged 55 and over (59% to 33%) and those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (60% to 29%).

The opposition UCP is also the top choice for Albertans aged 35-to-54 (46% to 41%) and Calgarians (48% to 37%).

Conversely, the NDP is ahead of the UCP among women (48% to 40%), Albertans aged 18-to-34 (47% to 38%) and those who live in Edmonton (46% to 40%). 

“The UCP is holding on to a large majority of voters who cast a ballot for either the Wildrose Party (77%) or the Progressive Conservatives (84%) in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are losing 14% of their voters in the last election to the UCP.”

On the “Best Premier” question, Jason Kenney of the UCP holds a three-point lead over incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP (36% to 33%), with Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party and David Khan of the Liberal Party in single digits (9% and 2% respectively).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 13 to April 15, 2019 among 602 Alberta adults, including 542 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservative Party Ahead in Alberta Campaign

Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney are tied when residents ponder who would make the “Best Premier” of the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 2, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) holds the upper hand as the provincial electoral campaign unfolds in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their riding in this month’s election. The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 40%, followed by the Alberta Party with 6% and the Liberal Party with 3%. Six per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

In the survey, 22% of Albertans are undecided on which party or candidate to support, including 27% of those who reside outside of the Calgary and Edmonton census metropolitan areas.

“The UCP is connecting well with male voters and Albertans aged 55 and over,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP is more popular in Edmonton and with women and voters aged 18-to-34.”

Almost two-in-five decided voters (38%) concede they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the election.

When asked which party leader would make the “Best Premier” for the province, incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP and challenger Jason Kenney of the UCP are tied with 32% each, followed by Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party with 7% and David Khan of the Liberal Party with 5%.

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%) say their opinion of Notley has worsened since the start of the electoral campaign, while a larger proportion of residents (38%) now has a more negative view of Kenney.

Across the province, 45% of Albertans approve of the way Notley has performed her duties, while 46% disapprove. 

The approval rating is lower for Kenney (38%, with 47% disapproving), Mandel (30%, with 39% disapproving) and Khan (23%, with 46% disapproving).

When asked about specific issues, Albertans select Notley as the leader who is better suited to handle health care (38%), the environment (36%), child care (also 36%), education (also 36%), housing, poverty and homelessness (32%), and seniors care (31%).

Kenney is preferred for the economy (38%), job creation (also 38%), energy and pipelines (also 38%), managing the province’s finances (36%), and crime and public safety (32%). 

The two main leaders are practically even on managing government accountability and transportation projects.

The most important issue for Albertans, by far, is the economy and jobs (44%), followed by health care (14%), energy and pipelines (13%) and government accountability (9%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 29 to April 1, 2019, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Tough Road Ahead for Trudeau and Liberals in British Columbia

More than half of British Columbians think that a different party leader would fare better as Canada’s Prime Minister.

Vancouver, BC [March 26, 2019] – A majority of British Columbians are looking at options beyond Justin Trudeau as the federal election nears, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 53% of British Columbians believe that “a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa as Prime Minister than Justin Trudeau.”

Men are more likely to believe that a different leader would fare better as Canada’s head of government (56%, compared to 50% for women). 

One third (34%) of British Columbians who voted for the federal Liberal Party in the 2015 election also believe a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa than the incumbent.

“With a few months to go before the next federal campaign begins, animosity toward the current prime minister in British Columbia is strongest outside of Metro Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of voters in the Fraser Valley (58%), Southern BC (57%) and Northern BC (55%) would prefer to have a different leader in charge.”

In addition, 50% of British Columbians think that “a different party would do things better in Ottawa as a government than the Liberals.” This group includes majorities of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (54%) and 55 and over (51%), as well as one-in-four (25%) federal Liberal voters from 2015.

When asked if they expect the Liberal Party to form the government again after the next federal election, 38% of British Columbians believe that this will be the case, while 44% disagree.

More than half of British Columbians report being “very familiar” or “moderately familiar” with the policies and ideas of the Liberal Party (78%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (72%), the Conservative Party (69%) and the Green Party (59%).

Only 16% of British Columbians are “very familiar” or “moderately familiar” with the policies and ideas of the People’s Party, while three-in-four (75%) say they are “not too familiar” or “not familiar at all” with them.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 8 to March 10, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Confusion Influenced Referendum Voters in British Columbia

Almost half of those who did not vote in the referendum say they did not feel informed about the issue.

Vancouver, BC [December 14, 2018] – A majority of British Columbians say confusion with the options offered in the Referendum on Electoral Reform influenced their final choice, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of residents say they voted to keep the First Past the Post system for provincial elections, while 31% voted in favour of Proportional Representation and 20% did not cast their ballot.

Almost half of British Columbians who did not vote in the referendum (48%) say they did not feel informed enough to vote.

“Almost half of non-voters felt uninformed about the task at hand, even with a ballot that arrived at their home,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Among those who voted, support for the status quo was decidedly higher among older voters, while younger voters favoured a move to proportional representation.”

Across the province, 90% of voters say they are “very confident” or “moderately confident” in their selection on the referendum.

More than a third of voters (35%) say they did not vote in the second question—a proportion that reaches 53% among those who supported the First Past the Post system.

When asked about issues that influenced the way they voted, majorities of British Columbians mention the details of the three options on the second question not being fully fleshed out (59%), the three options listed on the second question being confusing and not clearly explained (55%), the notion of smaller parties holding the balance of power (55%), MLAs being appointed from party lists (53%) and coalition deals being worked out “in the back room” (50%).

In addition, 49% of respondents were concerned over fringe or extremist parties winning seats, urban centres having disproportionate influence over future governments, and the details of the chosen proportional representation option being left to an all-party committee.

Slightly smaller proportions of voters were influenced by the notion that voters from rural areas might lose local representation (45%) or the government possibly rigging the process for partisan gain (41%).

Almost four-in-five British Columbians (78%) agree that politicians are in a conflict of interest when it comes to making decisions about how we vote, and would like any future proposals to involve an independent, non-partisan citizens’ body. This includes 77% of those who voted for Proportional Representation and 82% of those who voted to keep the First Past the Post system.

British Columbians were also asked about possible actions in the event the First Past the Post system was retained after the referendum. A majority (55%) agrees with setting up an independent, non-partisan process to reflect on the results of this vote and recommend what British Columbia should do next, but 52% also think that no further steps should be taken at this time aimed at changing our electoral system.

Just over two-in-five British Columbians (44%) would like to set up a Citizens’ Assembly after the next election and any resulting recommendations for change to be voted on in the legislature.

British Columbians were also asked to imagine a scenario where an arms-length review panel recommended that British Columbia hold another referendum on electoral reform at the time of the next election with guarantees addressing the major concerns that arose in the recent referendum.

The ballot question would be: “British Columbia is proposing to elect our MLAs by Proportional Representation. This means that the MLAs elected in each region would accurately reflect the diversity of political views in each region. The number of MLAs in each region of BC would stay the same and voters would vote for individual candidates, not for party lists. There would be a moderate threshold to encourage parties to have broad policy platforms. If voters endorse Proportional Representation, an independent citizens’ panel with representatives from around the province would deliberate on and recommend a final system that would be voted on in the legislature in a free vote. If accepted, there would be a confirmation referendum after we have used the new system at least twice.”

If they were asked to vote on this question, 41% of respondents would select Proportional Representation, while 36% would cas a ballot to keep First Past the Post.

More than two thirds of British Columbians believe voters should be able to vote for their top candidate without worrying about ‘splitting the vote” (75%), that a party should only win majority power if its candidates won a majority of the votes (70%), and that the voting system should not disadvantage independent candidates (70%).

Majorities of British Columbians also endorse other concepts, such as almost all votes helping elect an MLA (64%), a party not holding majority power if its candidates won fewer than 40% of the votes (63%), voters being able to choose among different candidates from their preferred party (58%), MLAs being elected from different parties in close proportion to how voters voted in each region voted (57%), and voters being able to make their vote count for a more popular candidate rather than having it ignored (52%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 18 to December 20, 2018, among 803 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Want Referendum Outcome to Be Respected

Supporters of all three major provincial parties in the province believe the will of voters should stand.

Vancouver, BC [December 14, 2018] – As British Columbians await the results of the 2018 Referendum on Electoral Reform, most residents believe the results of the democratic process should be respected, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 73% of British Columbians think the provincial government should honour the results of referendum, regardless of the final voter turnout.

The Referendum on Electoral Reform was a mail-in ballot. A voting package was mailed to British Columbians between October 22 and November 2. The results of the referendum are expected to be announced before the end of the year.

Majorities of residents who voted to keep the current First Past the Post system for provincial elections (74%) or to move to a proportional representation system (71%) believe the result of the referendum should be respected.

Most British Columbians who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (75%), the BC Liberals (71%) and the BC Greens (66%) in last year’s provincial election think the outcome of the referendum should stand, regardless of how many voters participated.

When asked how they voted in the democratic process, equal proportions of residents (38%) say they chose to keep the current First Past the Post system or to adopt a proportional representation system.

Almost one-in-four respondents (24%) say they did not vote in the referendum—including 27% of women, 27% of those aged 18-to-34, and 29% of Fraser Valley residents.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 11 to December 13, 2018, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Dead Heat in British Columbia’s Electoral Reform Referendum

Millennials are more likely to support changing the system, while Baby Boomers are keener on leaving things as they are.

Vancouver, BC [November 21, 2018] – There is no clear favourite as voters in British Columbia ponder their options in the referendum on electoral reform, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians, 40% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for the current First Past the Post system, while 40% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for a proportional representation system.

Across the province, 15% of voters are undecided, including 20% of women, 19% of those aged 18-to-34 and 18% of those aged 35-to-54.

“A majority of voters aged 55 and over (57%) hold extremely favourable views of the current system,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In stark contrast, more than half of those aged 18-to-34 (53%) prefer proportional representation.”

Most British Columbians who plan to vote to keep the current First Past the Post system cite confusion with the options that are on the ballot (57%) as the main reason for their decision. Three-in-ten of these voters (31%) also consider that the existing system is fair because candidates need to win the election in their riding.

Conversely, almost half of proportional representation supporters (48%) think this system is fairer because the share of the votes a party receives is reflected in the number of seats it has in the legislature. Two-in-five of these voters (40%) also think the current system does not work for everybody and needs to be changed.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2018, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca