Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

Health care remains the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives are still in first place as voters in Manitoba prepare to participate in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 44% of decided voters (-2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late August) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains in second place with 31% (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 16% (+2) and the Green Party with 7% (-1).

The Progressive Conservatives hold their best numbers with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%) and men (50%). The New Democrats are ahead among voters aged 18-to-34 (33%).

While the race is tied in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (34% for each of the two main contending parties), the Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead in the rest of the province (55%, with the NDP at 28%).

“Practically four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (79%) say they will not change their mind before casting their ballot,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This proportion includes 84% of those who are planning to support the governing Progressive Conservatives.”

Three-in-ten Manitobans (30%, -4) believe incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister would make the best head of government for the province.

NDP and Official Opposition leader Wab Kinew is second with 19% (+2), followed by Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party with 16% (+6) and James Beddome of the Green Party with 8% (+4). More than one-in-four of the province’s residents (27%, -7) are undecided on this question.

Health care (38%, -10) remains the most important issue facing the province for Manitobans, followed by the economy and jobs (19%, +8), crime and public safety (10%, -4) and the environment (9%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 6 to September 9, 2019 among 536 Manitoba adults, including 483 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.5 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba

On the “Best Premier” question, Brian Pallister leads Wab Kinew by a 2-to-1 margin.

Vancouver, BC [August 30, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives head to the final stages of the provincial electoral campaign in Manitoba as the frontrunners, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 46% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 30%, followed by the Liberal Party with 14% and the Green Party with 8%.

The Progressive Conservatives are particularly popular with male voters (51%), those aged 55 and over (54%) and those who do not live in Winnipeg (58%).

“Seven-in-ten decided voters (72%) say they will not change their mind before election day in Manitoba,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This includes 83% of those who plan to support the Progressive Conservatives and 76% of those who plan to vote for the NDP.”

Almost half of Manitobans (48%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province today. Crime and public safety (14%) and the economy and jobs (11%) are the only other issues that reach double digits.

Two-in-five Manitobans (40%) approve of the way Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Brian Pallister is handling his job, while 47% disapprove.

The approval rating is lower for Official Opposition and NDP leader Wab Kinew (33%), Liberal leader Dougald Lamont (25%) and Green leader James Beddome (22%).

When asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, a third of Manitobans (34%) select Pallister. Kinew is a distant second with 17%, followed by Lamont (10%) and Beddome (4%). A third of the province’s residents (34%) are undecided.

All four party leaders have a negative momentum score, which is calculated by assessing the proportions of residents who say their views of each leader have improved or worsened since the start of the campaign. Beddome (-2) and Lamont (-4) fare better than Kinew (-12) and Pallister (-19), 

On issues, Pallister is seen as the best leader to handle the economy and jobs (35%), government accountability (34%), energy (33%),  crime and public safety (32%), education (30%), health care (29%) and the environment (23%). 

Kinew is ahead of the incumbent premier on managing housing, homelessness and poverty (30%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 27 to August 29, 2019 among 586 Manitoba adults, including 498 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians Think Trump Presidency Has Been Bad for Canada

Justin Trudeau leads Andrew Scheer by a 2-to-1 margin on being best suited to deal with the current American president.

Vancouver, BC [June 19, 2019] – Most people in Canada regard the presidency of Donald Trump in a negative light, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 65% of Canadians think having Trump as President of the United States has been “bad” or “very bad” for Canada.

Negative views on the effect of Trump’s tenure on Canada are highest among women (68%), those aged 55 and over (69%), Quebecers (71%) and British Columbians (73%).

“Only 17% of Canadians think Trump’s presidency has been good for Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Albertans (32%) and people who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2015 federal election (30%) are more likely to have positive views on Trump’s term so far.”

When asked which one of the two main federal party leaders is better suited to handle Trump and Canada’s relationship with the United States, 35% of respondents select Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau, while 17% pick Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer.

In Alberta, Scheer outranks Trudeau on this question (28% to 16%), but the incumbent prime minister is ahead of his key rival in all other regions of the country, including Quebec (40% to 17%), Ontario (33% to 20%) and British Columbia (35% to 19%).

Two-in-five Canadians (40%) think Trump has performed “worse” than they expected since becoming president, while 46% believe he has done “about the same” as they envisioned.

Only 10% of Canadians believe Trump has “accomplished much” since he became president. Significant proportions of residents think the current White House occupant has “accomplished little” (37%) or believe it is too early to judge his achievements (39%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 31 to June 3, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservatives Extend Their Lead in Alberta

Opposition leader Jason Kenney has overtaken incumbent Rachel Notley as the “Best Premier” for the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 15, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) has extended its advantage in the final stages of the provincial campaign in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta (+4 since a Research Co. poll completed in early April) would support the UCP candidate in their riding in tomorrow’s provincial ballot.

The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 39% (-1), followed by the Alberta Party with 9% (+3) and the Liberal Party with 2% (-1). Two per cent of decided voters would back other parties or candidates.

The level of undecided voters across Alberta has dropped from 22% in early April to 10% in this survey. In the rural areas of the province, only 9% of residents are currently undecided (compared to 27% earlier this month).

Among decided voters, the UCP holds sizeable advantages over the NDP in three distinct demographics: men (57% to 29%), Albertans aged 55 and over (59% to 33%) and those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (60% to 29%).

The opposition UCP is also the top choice for Albertans aged 35-to-54 (46% to 41%) and Calgarians (48% to 37%).

Conversely, the NDP is ahead of the UCP among women (48% to 40%), Albertans aged 18-to-34 (47% to 38%) and those who live in Edmonton (46% to 40%). 

“The UCP is holding on to a large majority of voters who cast a ballot for either the Wildrose Party (77%) or the Progressive Conservatives (84%) in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are losing 14% of their voters in the last election to the UCP.”

On the “Best Premier” question, Jason Kenney of the UCP holds a three-point lead over incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP (36% to 33%), with Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party and David Khan of the Liberal Party in single digits (9% and 2% respectively).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 13 to April 15, 2019 among 602 Alberta adults, including 542 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservative Party Ahead in Alberta Campaign

Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney are tied when residents ponder who would make the “Best Premier” of the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 2, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) holds the upper hand as the provincial electoral campaign unfolds in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their riding in this month’s election. The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 40%, followed by the Alberta Party with 6% and the Liberal Party with 3%. Six per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

In the survey, 22% of Albertans are undecided on which party or candidate to support, including 27% of those who reside outside of the Calgary and Edmonton census metropolitan areas.

“The UCP is connecting well with male voters and Albertans aged 55 and over,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP is more popular in Edmonton and with women and voters aged 18-to-34.”

Almost two-in-five decided voters (38%) concede they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the election.

When asked which party leader would make the “Best Premier” for the province, incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP and challenger Jason Kenney of the UCP are tied with 32% each, followed by Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party with 7% and David Khan of the Liberal Party with 5%.

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%) say their opinion of Notley has worsened since the start of the electoral campaign, while a larger proportion of residents (38%) now has a more negative view of Kenney.

Across the province, 45% of Albertans approve of the way Notley has performed her duties, while 46% disapprove. 

The approval rating is lower for Kenney (38%, with 47% disapproving), Mandel (30%, with 39% disapproving) and Khan (23%, with 46% disapproving).

When asked about specific issues, Albertans select Notley as the leader who is better suited to handle health care (38%), the environment (36%), child care (also 36%), education (also 36%), housing, poverty and homelessness (32%), and seniors care (31%).

Kenney is preferred for the economy (38%), job creation (also 38%), energy and pipelines (also 38%), managing the province’s finances (36%), and crime and public safety (32%). 

The two main leaders are practically even on managing government accountability and transportation projects.

The most important issue for Albertans, by far, is the economy and jobs (44%), followed by health care (14%), energy and pipelines (13%) and government accountability (9%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 29 to April 1, 2019, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca