Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba

On the “Best Premier” question, Brian Pallister leads Wab Kinew by a 2-to-1 margin.

Vancouver, BC [August 30, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives head to the final stages of the provincial electoral campaign in Manitoba as the frontrunners, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 46% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 30%, followed by the Liberal Party with 14% and the Green Party with 8%.

The Progressive Conservatives are particularly popular with male voters (51%), those aged 55 and over (54%) and those who do not live in Winnipeg (58%).

“Seven-in-ten decided voters (72%) say they will not change their mind before election day in Manitoba,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This includes 83% of those who plan to support the Progressive Conservatives and 76% of those who plan to vote for the NDP.”

Almost half of Manitobans (48%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province today. Crime and public safety (14%) and the economy and jobs (11%) are the only other issues that reach double digits.

Two-in-five Manitobans (40%) approve of the way Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Brian Pallister is handling his job, while 47% disapprove.

The approval rating is lower for Official Opposition and NDP leader Wab Kinew (33%), Liberal leader Dougald Lamont (25%) and Green leader James Beddome (22%).

When asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, a third of Manitobans (34%) select Pallister. Kinew is a distant second with 17%, followed by Lamont (10%) and Beddome (4%). A third of the province’s residents (34%) are undecided.

All four party leaders have a negative momentum score, which is calculated by assessing the proportions of residents who say their views of each leader have improved or worsened since the start of the campaign. Beddome (-2) and Lamont (-4) fare better than Kinew (-12) and Pallister (-19), 

On issues, Pallister is seen as the best leader to handle the economy and jobs (35%), government accountability (34%), energy (33%),  crime and public safety (32%), education (30%), health care (29%) and the environment (23%). 

Kinew is ahead of the incumbent premier on managing housing, homelessness and poverty (30%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 27 to August 29, 2019 among 586 Manitoba adults, including 498 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Most Canadians Think Trump Presidency Has Been Bad for Canada

Justin Trudeau leads Andrew Scheer by a 2-to-1 margin on being best suited to deal with the current American president.

Vancouver, BC [June 19, 2019] – Most people in Canada regard the presidency of Donald Trump in a negative light, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 65% of Canadians think having Trump as President of the United States has been “bad” or “very bad” for Canada.

Negative views on the effect of Trump’s tenure on Canada are highest among women (68%), those aged 55 and over (69%), Quebecers (71%) and British Columbians (73%).

“Only 17% of Canadians think Trump’s presidency has been good for Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Albertans (32%) and people who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2015 federal election (30%) are more likely to have positive views on Trump’s term so far.”

When asked which one of the two main federal party leaders is better suited to handle Trump and Canada’s relationship with the United States, 35% of respondents select Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau, while 17% pick Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer.

In Alberta, Scheer outranks Trudeau on this question (28% to 16%), but the incumbent prime minister is ahead of his key rival in all other regions of the country, including Quebec (40% to 17%), Ontario (33% to 20%) and British Columbia (35% to 19%).

Two-in-five Canadians (40%) think Trump has performed “worse” than they expected since becoming president, while 46% believe he has done “about the same” as they envisioned.

Only 10% of Canadians believe Trump has “accomplished much” since he became president. Significant proportions of residents think the current White House occupant has “accomplished little” (37%) or believe it is too early to judge his achievements (39%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from May 31 to June 3, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservatives Extend Their Lead in Alberta

Opposition leader Jason Kenney has overtaken incumbent Rachel Notley as the “Best Premier” for the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 15, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) has extended its advantage in the final stages of the provincial campaign in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of decided voters in Alberta (+4 since a Research Co. poll completed in early April) would support the UCP candidate in their riding in tomorrow’s provincial ballot.

The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 39% (-1), followed by the Alberta Party with 9% (+3) and the Liberal Party with 2% (-1). Two per cent of decided voters would back other parties or candidates.

The level of undecided voters across Alberta has dropped from 22% in early April to 10% in this survey. In the rural areas of the province, only 9% of residents are currently undecided (compared to 27% earlier this month).

Among decided voters, the UCP holds sizeable advantages over the NDP in three distinct demographics: men (57% to 29%), Albertans aged 55 and over (59% to 33%) and those who do not reside in Calgary or Edmonton (60% to 29%).

The opposition UCP is also the top choice for Albertans aged 35-to-54 (46% to 41%) and Calgarians (48% to 37%).

Conversely, the NDP is ahead of the UCP among women (48% to 40%), Albertans aged 18-to-34 (47% to 38%) and those who live in Edmonton (46% to 40%). 

“The UCP is holding on to a large majority of voters who cast a ballot for either the Wildrose Party (77%) or the Progressive Conservatives (84%) in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are losing 14% of their voters in the last election to the UCP.”

On the “Best Premier” question, Jason Kenney of the UCP holds a three-point lead over incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP (36% to 33%), with Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party and David Khan of the Liberal Party in single digits (9% and 2% respectively).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 13 to April 15, 2019 among 602 Alberta adults, including 542 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

United Conservative Party Ahead in Alberta Campaign

Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney are tied when residents ponder who would make the “Best Premier” of the province.

Vancouver, BC [April 2, 2019] – The United Conservative Party (UCP) holds the upper hand as the provincial electoral campaign unfolds in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would cast a ballot for the UCP candidate in their riding in this month’s election. The governing New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 40%, followed by the Alberta Party with 6% and the Liberal Party with 3%. Six per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

In the survey, 22% of Albertans are undecided on which party or candidate to support, including 27% of those who reside outside of the Calgary and Edmonton census metropolitan areas.

“The UCP is connecting well with male voters and Albertans aged 55 and over,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP is more popular in Edmonton and with women and voters aged 18-to-34.”

Almost two-in-five decided voters (38%) concede they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the election.

When asked which party leader would make the “Best Premier” for the province, incumbent Rachel Notley of the NDP and challenger Jason Kenney of the UCP are tied with 32% each, followed by Stephen Mandel of the Alberta Party with 7% and David Khan of the Liberal Party with 5%.

Three-in-ten Albertans (30%) say their opinion of Notley has worsened since the start of the electoral campaign, while a larger proportion of residents (38%) now has a more negative view of Kenney.

Across the province, 45% of Albertans approve of the way Notley has performed her duties, while 46% disapprove. 

The approval rating is lower for Kenney (38%, with 47% disapproving), Mandel (30%, with 39% disapproving) and Khan (23%, with 46% disapproving).

When asked about specific issues, Albertans select Notley as the leader who is better suited to handle health care (38%), the environment (36%), child care (also 36%), education (also 36%), housing, poverty and homelessness (32%), and seniors care (31%).

Kenney is preferred for the economy (38%), job creation (also 38%), energy and pipelines (also 38%), managing the province’s finances (36%), and crime and public safety (32%). 

The two main leaders are practically even on managing government accountability and transportation projects.

The most important issue for Albertans, by far, is the economy and jobs (44%), followed by health care (14%), energy and pipelines (13%) and government accountability (9%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 29 to April 1, 2019, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Tough Road Ahead for Trudeau and Liberals in British Columbia

More than half of British Columbians think that a different party leader would fare better as Canada’s Prime Minister.

Vancouver, BC [March 26, 2019] – A majority of British Columbians are looking at options beyond Justin Trudeau as the federal election nears, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 53% of British Columbians believe that “a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa as Prime Minister than Justin Trudeau.”

Men are more likely to believe that a different leader would fare better as Canada’s head of government (56%, compared to 50% for women). 

One third (34%) of British Columbians who voted for the federal Liberal Party in the 2015 election also believe a different party leader would do things better in Ottawa than the incumbent.

“With a few months to go before the next federal campaign begins, animosity toward the current prime minister in British Columbia is strongest outside of Metro Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of voters in the Fraser Valley (58%), Southern BC (57%) and Northern BC (55%) would prefer to have a different leader in charge.”

In addition, 50% of British Columbians think that “a different party would do things better in Ottawa as a government than the Liberals.” This group includes majorities of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (54%) and 55 and over (51%), as well as one-in-four (25%) federal Liberal voters from 2015.

When asked if they expect the Liberal Party to form the government again after the next federal election, 38% of British Columbians believe that this will be the case, while 44% disagree.

More than half of British Columbians report being “very familiar” or “moderately familiar” with the policies and ideas of the Liberal Party (78%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (72%), the Conservative Party (69%) and the Green Party (59%).

Only 16% of British Columbians are “very familiar” or “moderately familiar” with the policies and ideas of the People’s Party, while three-in-four (75%) say they are “not too familiar” or “not familiar at all” with them.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 8 to March 10, 2019, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Confusion Influenced Referendum Voters in British Columbia

Almost half of those who did not vote in the referendum say they did not feel informed about the issue.

Vancouver, BC [December 14, 2018] – A majority of British Columbians say confusion with the options offered in the Referendum on Electoral Reform influenced their final choice, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 49% of residents say they voted to keep the First Past the Post system for provincial elections, while 31% voted in favour of Proportional Representation and 20% did not cast their ballot.

Almost half of British Columbians who did not vote in the referendum (48%) say they did not feel informed enough to vote.

“Almost half of non-voters felt uninformed about the task at hand, even with a ballot that arrived at their home,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Among those who voted, support for the status quo was decidedly higher among older voters, while younger voters favoured a move to proportional representation.”

Across the province, 90% of voters say they are “very confident” or “moderately confident” in their selection on the referendum.

More than a third of voters (35%) say they did not vote in the second question—a proportion that reaches 53% among those who supported the First Past the Post system.

When asked about issues that influenced the way they voted, majorities of British Columbians mention the details of the three options on the second question not being fully fleshed out (59%), the three options listed on the second question being confusing and not clearly explained (55%), the notion of smaller parties holding the balance of power (55%), MLAs being appointed from party lists (53%) and coalition deals being worked out “in the back room” (50%).

In addition, 49% of respondents were concerned over fringe or extremist parties winning seats, urban centres having disproportionate influence over future governments, and the details of the chosen proportional representation option being left to an all-party committee.

Slightly smaller proportions of voters were influenced by the notion that voters from rural areas might lose local representation (45%) or the government possibly rigging the process for partisan gain (41%).

Almost four-in-five British Columbians (78%) agree that politicians are in a conflict of interest when it comes to making decisions about how we vote, and would like any future proposals to involve an independent, non-partisan citizens’ body. This includes 77% of those who voted for Proportional Representation and 82% of those who voted to keep the First Past the Post system.

British Columbians were also asked about possible actions in the event the First Past the Post system was retained after the referendum. A majority (55%) agrees with setting up an independent, non-partisan process to reflect on the results of this vote and recommend what British Columbia should do next, but 52% also think that no further steps should be taken at this time aimed at changing our electoral system.

Just over two-in-five British Columbians (44%) would like to set up a Citizens’ Assembly after the next election and any resulting recommendations for change to be voted on in the legislature.

British Columbians were also asked to imagine a scenario where an arms-length review panel recommended that British Columbia hold another referendum on electoral reform at the time of the next election with guarantees addressing the major concerns that arose in the recent referendum.

The ballot question would be: “British Columbia is proposing to elect our MLAs by Proportional Representation. This means that the MLAs elected in each region would accurately reflect the diversity of political views in each region. The number of MLAs in each region of BC would stay the same and voters would vote for individual candidates, not for party lists. There would be a moderate threshold to encourage parties to have broad policy platforms. If voters endorse Proportional Representation, an independent citizens’ panel with representatives from around the province would deliberate on and recommend a final system that would be voted on in the legislature in a free vote. If accepted, there would be a confirmation referendum after we have used the new system at least twice.”

If they were asked to vote on this question, 41% of respondents would select Proportional Representation, while 36% would cas a ballot to keep First Past the Post.

More than two thirds of British Columbians believe voters should be able to vote for their top candidate without worrying about ‘splitting the vote” (75%), that a party should only win majority power if its candidates won a majority of the votes (70%), and that the voting system should not disadvantage independent candidates (70%).

Majorities of British Columbians also endorse other concepts, such as almost all votes helping elect an MLA (64%), a party not holding majority power if its candidates won fewer than 40% of the votes (63%), voters being able to choose among different candidates from their preferred party (58%), MLAs being elected from different parties in close proportion to how voters voted in each region voted (57%), and voters being able to make their vote count for a more popular candidate rather than having it ignored (52%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 18 to December 20, 2018, among 803 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Want Referendum Outcome to Be Respected

Supporters of all three major provincial parties in the province believe the will of voters should stand.

Vancouver, BC [December 14, 2018] – As British Columbians await the results of the 2018 Referendum on Electoral Reform, most residents believe the results of the democratic process should be respected, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 73% of British Columbians think the provincial government should honour the results of referendum, regardless of the final voter turnout.

The Referendum on Electoral Reform was a mail-in ballot. A voting package was mailed to British Columbians between October 22 and November 2. The results of the referendum are expected to be announced before the end of the year.

Majorities of residents who voted to keep the current First Past the Post system for provincial elections (74%) or to move to a proportional representation system (71%) believe the result of the referendum should be respected.

Most British Columbians who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (75%), the BC Liberals (71%) and the BC Greens (66%) in last year’s provincial election think the outcome of the referendum should stand, regardless of how many voters participated.

When asked how they voted in the democratic process, equal proportions of residents (38%) say they chose to keep the current First Past the Post system or to adopt a proportional representation system.

Almost one-in-four respondents (24%) say they did not vote in the referendum—including 27% of women, 27% of those aged 18-to-34, and 29% of Fraser Valley residents.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 11 to December 13, 2018, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Dead Heat in British Columbia’s Electoral Reform Referendum

Millennials are more likely to support changing the system, while Baby Boomers are keener on leaving things as they are.

Vancouver, BC [November 21, 2018] – There is no clear favourite as voters in British Columbia ponder their options in the referendum on electoral reform, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians, 40% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for the current First Past the Post system, while 40% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for a proportional representation system.

Across the province, 15% of voters are undecided, including 20% of women, 19% of those aged 18-to-34 and 18% of those aged 35-to-54.

“A majority of voters aged 55 and over (57%) hold extremely favourable views of the current system,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In stark contrast, more than half of those aged 18-to-34 (53%) prefer proportional representation.”

Most British Columbians who plan to vote to keep the current First Past the Post system cite confusion with the options that are on the ballot (57%) as the main reason for their decision. Three-in-ten of these voters (31%) also consider that the existing system is fair because candidates need to win the election in their riding.

Conversely, almost half of proportional representation supporters (48%) think this system is fairer because the share of the votes a party receives is reflected in the number of seats it has in the legislature. Two-in-five of these voters (40%) also think the current system does not work for everybody and needs to be changed.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2018, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Tight Senate Races Developing in Arizona and Florida

The gubernatorial contests in Ohio and Wisconsin are also very close in the final days of campaigning. 

Vancouver, BC [November 5, 2018] – Residents of two American states are headed to this year’s mid-term election with closely contested U.S. Senate races, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in five American states.

The surveys also show remarkably tight contests in three gubernatorial elections.

Arizona

In the race to take over the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Jeff Flake in Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally are locked in an extremely close race (50% to 49% among decided voters)

Incumbent Republican Doug Ducey seems headed for re-election as the Governor of the Grand Canyon State, with a 14-point lead over Democratic rival David Garcia (57% to 41% among decided voters).

Florida

Democrat Bill Nelson’s quest for a fourth-term in the United States Senate could see the closest race of his career. Nelson holds a two-point edge over Republican Rick Scott (51% to 49%).

In the Sunshine State’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Andrew Gillum is also ahead of Republican Ron DeSantis by two points (50% to 48%).

New Mexico

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich is first in New Mexico (52% among decided voters), followed by Republican Mick Rich (36%) and Libertarian Gary Johnson (12%).

In the contest to replace New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham holds a 12-point advantage over Republican challenger Steve Pearce (56% to 44% among decided voters).

Ohio

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown has a sizeable lead over Republican challenger Jim Renacci in the Buckeye State (58% to 42% among decided voters).

The race for governor is extremely tight, with both Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine supported by 49% of decided voters in Ohio.

Wisconsin

Incumbent U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin appears headed to a new term in office, with a 12-point advantage over Republican rival Leah Vukmir in the Badger State (56% to 44% among decided voters).

The election for Governor is very close, with Democratic challenger Tony Evers barely ahead of incumbent Republican Scott Walker (49% to 48% among decided voters).

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from November 1 to November 3, 2018, among representative samples of 450 voters in five American states: Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: R.Hood Photography

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Democrats Heavily Favoured in Six U.S. Senate Races

Incumbents lead in California, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2018] – Several members of the United States Senate appear ready to return to Washington D.C. after this year’s mid-term election, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in five American states.

The surveys also show Democratic Party candidates edging out Republican challengers in five gubernatorial races.

California

As was the case in 2016, the race for the U.S. Senate in the Golden State features two Democratic contenders. Incumbent Dianne Feinstein (62%) is ahead of challenger Kevin de León (38%).

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom holds a 20-point lead over Republican rival John Cox among decided voters in California (60% to 40%).

Michigan

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow appears headed for a third term in office, with a 17-point lead over Republican John James (58% to 41%) in the Great Lakes State.

In the contest to replace Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, Democratic candidate Gretchen Whitmer is ahead of Republican Bill Schuette (52% to 47% among decided voters).

Minnesota

Incumbent U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar of the Democratic Party holds a comfortable lead over Republican Jim Newberger in the North Star State (60% to 38%).

In the special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated after the resignation of Al Franken, Democrat Tina Smith is ahead of Republican Karin Housley (55% to 43%).

Democratic candidate Tim Walz is in a good position to replace fellow party member Mark Dayton as Governor of Minnesota. Walz holds a seven-point lead over Republican Jeff Johnson (53% to 46%).

New York

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would earn a new term in the U.S. Senate representing the Empire State, with a sizeable advantage over Republican Chele Chiavacci Farley (66% to 34%).

Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo of the Democratic Party holds a 19-point lead over Republican contender Marc Molinaro (58% to 39%) in New York.

Pennsylvania

Democrat Bob Casey Jr. would win a third consecutive election to the U.S. Senate in the Keystone State. Casey holds a 17-point lead over Republican rival Lou Barletta (58% to 41%).

Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf is 15 points ahead of Republican challenger Scott Wagner (57% to 42%) in Pennsylvania.

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted from November 1 to November 3, 2018, among representative samples of 450 voters in five American states: California, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Pennsylvania. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: R.Hood Photography

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Mixed Reviews for Departing City Halls in Vancouver and Surrey

Most residents express disappointment with the current influence of developers on their municipal governments.

Vancouver, BC [October 19, 2018] – Residents of Vancouver and Surrey hold differing views about the pressing concerns affecting their municipalities and the performance of the current governments, a new Research Co. poll conducted for CTV Vancouver has found.

The online survey of representative samples shows that two thirds of Vancouver residents (67%) believe housing is the most important issue facing the city, followed by transportation (9%), poverty (also 9%) and economic development (5%).

In Surrey, 30% of residents believe housing is the most important issue, followed closely by crime (29%), transportation (20%) and poverty (7%).

“The views of Surrey residents vary greatly depending on where they live,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Newton, concerns about crime are higher than anywhere else in the city, while in Cloverdale residents are more worried about transportation.”

The survey also asked residents whether the current municipal government is doing a “good job” or a “bad job” handling various matters.

In Vancouver, the best rated government competencies are promoting tourism to the city (74%), providing good sanitation services (68%), fostering artistic and cultural activities (58%) and protecting the environment (55%).

The rating is significantly lower for managing economic development and growth (24%), dealing with homelessness and poverty (14%) and dealing with housing (10%).

Surrey gets its best marks on sanitation (68%) and arts and culture promotion (63%), but fewer than one-in-four residents are satisfied with how crime (22%), homelessness and poverty (also 22%) and housing (also 22%) have been dealt with.

Perceptions on housing affordability are especially dire in the two municipalities, with 90% of Vancouver residents and 87% of Surrey residents saying the situation is worse than it was four years ago.

A majority of City of Vancouver residents also believe quality of life (53%) and the influence of developers at City Hall (also 53%) is worse than it was in 2014. In addition, two thirds of Vancouverites (65%) say they do not like where Vancouver is going and think we need to change the course at City Hall.

In Surrey, more than half of residents (52%) say the influence of developers at City Hall is worse than it was four years ago, and a similarly high proportion (48%) feel the same way about public safety. Three-in-five residents of Surrey (60%) think it is time to change the course at City Hall.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver and 400 adults in the City of Surrey. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each city. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for both samples, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data sets for Vancouver and Surrey and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart Keeps Lead as Vancouver Mayoral Election Looms

More than half of voters are considering independent candidates for City Council.

Vancouver, BC [October 16, 2018] – Independent candidate Kennedy Stewart remains ahead as Vancouver’s mayoral campaign enters its final days, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver voters reproduced the ballot that will be used in the mayoral election, with the names of all 21 candidates listed in the order that was drawn last month.

In the survey, 36% of decided voters (+2 since early October) said they will vote for Stewart or have already voted for him in the advance polls.

Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is second with 23% (+3), followed closely by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 19% (+3).

Support is currently lower for Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver (6%, -4), Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (6%, -1), Fred Harding of VANCOUVER 1st (2%, -2) and David Chen of ProVancouver (2%, -5).

One third of voters in the City of Vancouver (33%) are undecided, including 41% of those aged 18-to-34 and 43% of women.

“Many Vancouver voters are still making up their minds about the candidates and parties they will support on October 20,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This group includes three-in-ten of those who voted for Kirk LaPointe in the last mayoral election, and more than a quarter of those who cast a ballot for Gregor Robertson.”

Sim and Stewart are virtually tied among male decided voters (32% and 31% respectively), while Stewart leads among female decided voters (42%, followed by Sylvester at 25%).

When it comes to the election for City Council, more than half of voters in Vancouver (53%) say they are “definitely” or “probably” considering voting for independent candidates.

The parties with the highest level of consideration for City Council from Vancouver voters are the Greens (47%), the NPA (35%), the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (34%), Vision Vancouver (29%) and OneCity (27%).

Consideration is currently lower for City Council candidates representing YES Vancouver (18%), VANCOUVER 1st (also 18%), Coalition Vancouver (also 18%) and ProVancouver (16%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2018, among 401 voters in the City of Vancouver, including 265 decided voters in the 2018 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 6.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Half of Vancouverites Ponder Independents in Council Election

Consideration for both Green Party and Non-Partisan Association (NPA) candidates increased by five points since September.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2018] – Voters in Vancouver continue to take a serious look at candidates from the Green Party and Independents as they contemplate their options in the election to City Council, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 51% (+5 since September) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider supporting Green Party of Vancouver candidates in this month’s municipal ballot.

A similarly high proportion of Vancouverites (50%, +12) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for any of the 27 independent candidates that will be listed on the ballot.

“The electorate’s appetite for independent voices is high across all age groups in Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A majority of voters aged 55 and over (57%) are considering independent candidates for one of their 10 votes.”

When it comes to established political parties, 35% of Vancouverites (+5) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for City Council candidates from the Non-Partisan Association (NPA), and 34% (+2) feel the same way about contenders from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE).

The level of consideration is currently lower for candidates representing Vision Vancouver (27%, -3), Yes Vancouver (23%, -1), ProVancouver (22%, +13), Coalition Vancouver (22%, +9), One City (21%, +2) and Vancouver First (16%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 4 to October 7, 2018, among 402 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

 

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart Remains Ahead in Vancouver Mayoral Race

Support for the independent candidate is highest among women and voters aged 18-to-34.

Vancouver, BC [October 9, 2018] – Independent candidate Kennedy Stewart currently has a higher level of support than all other contenders in Vancouver’s mayoral race, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 34% of decided voters will cast a ballot for Stewart, while 20% would support Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA).

Independent candidate Shauna Sylvester is third with 16%, followed by Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver with 10%, David Chen of ProVancouver and Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver each with 7%, and Fred Harding of Vancouver First with 4%.

More than a quarter of residents (26%) are undecided, down five points since a similar Research Co. survey completed last month. This group includes 31% of women and 24% of those who voted for Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson in the 2014 mayoral election.

“Almost half of Vancouverites who supported Robertson in the last election are saying they would be voting for Stewart this year,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, Sim is holding on to two-in-five residents who voted for Kirk LaPointe in the 2014 election.”

Stewart holds a double-digit lead over Sim among women (41% to 16%) and is virtually tied with the NPA candidate among men (27% to 25%). The independent candidate is also the top choice for voters aged 18-to-34 (38%, followed by Sim at 19% and Bremner at 14%).

Residents were asked individually about which of the seven candidates would be a “good choice” for mayor in the city. The top ranked contenders are Stewart (35%), Sylvester (27%), Sim (20%) and Bremner (13%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 4 to October 7, 2018, among 402 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Quebec: Who Won and Why

The 42nd General Election in Quebec has ended with a new governing party, a difficult road ahead for the Liberals, and renewed questions about the future of the sovereignty issue.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) will form a majority government after capturing 37 per cent of the vote in the province. Francois Legault will take over as premier from Liberal leader Philippe Couillard, whose party saw its share of the vote fall from 42 per cent in 2014 to 25 per cent this year.

The Parti Québécois (PQ) was unable to garner the backing of one-in-five voters (17 per cent) and experienced its worst result in history. Québec solidaire increased its seat count in the National Assembly from three to 10 members.

This election was a contest of generations. In the final Research Co. voting intention survey, the incumbent Liberals were the top choice for voters aged 55 and over (36%). Those aged 35-to-54 were more likely to cast a ballot for the CAQ (also 36%). The youngest voters—aged 18-to-34—were enthralled by Québec solidaire (33%).

In spite of their political and ideological differences, all generations agreed that it was time for something new. The sentiment for change among voters in Quebec was 68 per cent in the final poll and was remarkably similar among age groups (69% for Millennials, 66% for Generation X and 69% for Baby Boomers).

The proportion of Quebecers who were ready to see a new party in power is similar to what was observed on the eve of Manitoba’s 2015 provincial election (69%), but lower than the numbers seen in Ontario 2018 (77%) and Alberta 2015 (82%). Only British Columbia (61% in 2017) had a smaller proportion of voters advocating for a change of government.

In this century, Quebec’s “shakeup” elections featured a winning party with just a third of the vote. In 2007, the tenure of Jean Charest and the Liberals barely survived with 33 per cent of the vote. In 2012, 32 per cent of voters favoured the PQ and allowed Pauline Marois to become the first female premier in the province’s history. The 2018 election was different, as the share of the vote for the CAQ was higher than it was for the winning parties in 2007 and 2012.

The Research Co. “Exit Poll” asked Quebecers who cast a ballot in the provincial contest about their main motivations. As has been customary in previous Canadian elections, most voters across the province are moved by “the party’s ideas and policies” (43%), followed by “the party’s leader” (19%) and a “desire for change” (17%). Analyzing the motivations by party outlines some of the reasons for the success of the soon-to-be-governing party.

Among CAQ voters, 34 per cent say “desire for change” was their main motivation—a significantly higher proportion than what is reported by other opposition supporters. “Ideas and policies” is a close second (33%), followed by “the party’s leader” at 21 per cent. The CAQ was regarded as the vehicle for change, and it was successful in courting voters who previously favoured the Liberals or the PQ.

Liberal voters clearly had a good connection with outgoing premier Couillard (24% say “the party’s leader” was the main motivation for their vote). A larger proportion voted based on “ideas and policies” (39%), and one-in-five (20%) expressed a “desire for stability”.

For PQ supporters, “ideas and policies” was the main motivator (50%), followed by “the party’s leader” (17%) and “desire for change” (16%). On both of the latter indicators, the PQ ranks lower than the CAQ. Sovereignty was not a ballot issue this time around, and the PQ clearly lost votes to other contenders. The party has four years to decide where it goes, with a significantly reduced caucus and in search of a new leader.

Finally, Québec solidaire successfully attracted young voters. A whopping 67 per cent of their supporters say they cast a ballot based on “ideas and policies”, with “desire for change” (12%) and “disgust with other parties” (11%) rounding up the top three reasons. In spite of the victories, there is a dark cloud: only five per cent of Québec solidaire voters say “the party’s leader” was the main motivator for their vote.

 

Credit: Christophe Pinot