Elections – Page 2 – Research Co.

More Than Half of Vancouver Voters Would Abolish Park Board

June 17, 2022June 17, 2022By Mario Canseco

Almost three-in-five respondents support changing zoning laws to allow up to six strata title units on a standard lot.

Vancouver, BC [June 17, 2022] – Public confidence in the only elected Park Board in Canada has eroded considerably over the past year and a half, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 52% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver think the Board of Parks and Recreation should be eliminated, and that public parks and the public recreation system should be placed under the jurisdiction of City Council.

“In November 2020, only 44% of municipal likely voters in Vancouver favoured the elimination of the Board of Parks and Recreation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This month, the proportion has reached 52%.”

Public support for abolishing Vancouver’s Park Board is highest among likely voters who reside Downtown (63%), followed by those who live in the West Side (52%) and the East Side (45%).

Vancouverites who voted for Kennedy Stewart or Ken Sim in the 2018 mayoral election are significantly more likely to endorse the abolition of the Board of Parks and Recreation (61% and 60% respectively) than those who cast a ballot for Shauna Sylvester (43%).

Just over half of likely voters in Vancouver (51%, +5) believe it would be worthwhile to explore the idea of amalgamating all of the municipalities in Metro Vancouver, like they did in Toronto or Montreal.

Two thirds of Vancouverites who voted for Stewart in 2018 (67%) support exploring the concept of amalgamation, compared to just under half of those who cast a ballot for Sim (49%).

Almost three-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (58%, +5) are in favour of changing zoning laws to allow property owners to build up to six strata title units on a standard lot, provided the new building is no taller than an average home.

Majorities of Vancouver’s likely voters who currently rent or own their primary residence support a change in zoning laws (65% and 54% respectively).

Seven-in-ten likely voters in the City of Vancouver (71%, -10) are in favour of the plan to extend the Skytrain Millennium Line (currently under construction to Arbutus) to the University of British Columbia (UBC) campus at Point Grey.

Public support for the proposed SkyTrain extension is strongest among likely voters who reside Downtown (75%), followed by those who live in the East Side (72%) and the West Side (67%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 7 to June 9, 2022, among 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Ontario Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

June 8, 2022June 6, 2022By Mario Canseco

While most voters pointed out that it was “time for change”, the two main opposition leaders never gained on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [June 8, 2022] – The Progressive Conservative Party will form a majority government once again in Ontario, after all the votes from the 2022 provincial election have been tallied. An “exit poll” conducted by Research Co. provides an opportunity to look at why the sentiment for change that was expressed by most voters never materialized.

In our final poll of the campaign, Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford had a significant advantage over his main rivals on the “Best Premier” question. While 37% of Ontarians favoured Ford for the province’s top job, the rating was decidedly lower for Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath (21%) and Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (19%).

The election’s outcome does not suggest an extraordinary rekindling of voters with Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, but rather a failure from the two opposition parties to entice voters. In 2018, right before Ford’s victory and the end of the tenure of Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, more than three-in-four voters in Ontario (77%) thought a new premier was needed.

In our survey of Ontarians who cast a ballot in the 2022 provincial election, 64% of respondents told us that it was “time for a change of government” in the province. The desire to make Ford a one-term premier encompassed enormous proportions of Ontarians who voted for the NDP (95%) and the Liberals (88%) this year.

Still, when Ontario voters were asked to point out their main motivation for supporting a particular party in 2022, more than two-in-five (44%) mentioned ideas and policies. This indicator is more powerful for New Democrats (48%) and Liberals (47%) than for Progressive Conservatives (40%).

On the other hand, one-in-four Ontario voters (25%) say their ballot was cast primarily on account of the party’s leader. This time, the two opposition parties lag. While 31% of Progressive Conservatives thought of the leader more than anything, the numbers drop to 21% among those who supported either the New Democrats or the Liberals.

Across Ontario, only 9% of voters said they were thinking of a desire for change when casting their ballot. This indicator usually rises in provincewide elections when incumbents are unpopular. Even among New Democrats and Liberals, the number of voters who actively yearned for a new government was small (14% and 12% respectively).

One of the biggest hindrances that centre-left supporters may point to is the electoral system. In spite of endless discussions about “strategic voting”—with some pointing to predictions in an attempt to lure voters to one party or another—only 45% of Ontarians said they cast their ballot strategically: voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. As expected, “strategic voting” was significantly more favoured by voters aged 18-to-34 (62%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (47%) and aged 55 and over (33%).

But even if “strategic voting” failed to deliver change, many Ontarians would be happy with proportional representation in provincial elections. Across the province, 58% of voters like this idea. There is no generation gap on this question, with similar proportions of voters aged 18-to-34 (58%), aged 35-to-54 (59%) and aged 55 and over (57%) welcoming a new system. As expected, those who cast ballots for the New Democrats (70%) and Liberals (64%) are more enthused about the prospect of electoral reform than those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives (53%).

Ontario voters are not entirely convinced on enacting a merger of the two centre-left parties. Just under two-in-five Ontario voters (39%) would welcome this idea, but this number includes majorities of those who cast ballots for the Liberals (58%) and the New Democrats (57%). Progressive Conservative voters, who envisioned their party coasting to a win, are significantly more skeptical: only 23% would like to see a united “Liberal Democrat” party in 2026.

Even with a majority mandate, and with severe tasks ahead for the opposition, there is a sense of dismay from voters. Practically four-in-five (79%) say they would like to see better people serving as leaders of Ontario’s main political parties. On this question, significant majorities of supporters of the New Democrats (87%), Liberals (83%) and Progressive Conservatives (72%) think these political organizations owe them better options, individually and collectively.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on June 1 and June 2, 2022, among 500 Ontario adults who voted in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Double-Digit Advantage for Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives

June 1, 2022June 7, 2022By Mario Canseco

Half of Ontarians (50%) approve of the performance of Doug Ford as Premier and PC leader, while 46% disapprove.

Vancouver, BC [June 1, 2022] – Public support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party has increased as the provincial election in Ontario draws near, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarian adults, 39% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their riding tomorrow or have already done so, up five points since the previous Research Co. poll completed in mid-May.

The Ontario Liberal Party remains in second place with 26% (-3), followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 23% (=), the Ontario Green Party with 6% (-1), the New Blue Party of Ontario with 3% (=) and the Ontario Party with 1% (=).

Since mid-May, the Progressive Conservatives have improved their standing in Ontario among both male decided voters (42%, +5) and female decided voters (37%, +7).

More than two-in-five decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (also 42%) intend to back an Ontario PC candidate. The race is closer among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (PC 31%, Liberal 28%, NDP 26%).

“The Progressive Conservatives are keeping 81% of their 2018 voters, while the New Democrats are only maintaining 71% of them,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The Ontario Liberals are only attracting 52% of Ontarians who voted for the federal Liberal Party in last year’s Canadian federal election, as one-in-four of these voters (25%) are planning to vote for Ontario PC candidates tomorrow.”

Half of Ontarians (50%, +4) approve of the way Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford has handled his duties.

The rating is lower for Official Opposition and Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath (46%, -1) Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (42%, =), Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%, +9), New Blue Party of Ontario leader Jim Karahalios (16%, +3) and Ontario Party leader Derek Sloan (16%, +4).

On the momentum question, Schreiner does particularly well, with 18% of Ontarians (+9 since mid-May) saying their opinion of the Ontario Green Party leader has improved since the electoral campaign started. The needle did not move for Del Duca (20%, =) and smaller gains are seen for Horwath (19%, +2), Ford (also 19%, +3), Karahalios (6%, +2) and Sloan (5%, +2).

More than a third of Ontarians (37%, +4) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province among the six main party leaders. Horwath is a distant second with 21% (-2), followed by Del Duca (19%, -1), Schreiner (7%, +4), Karahalios (2%, =) and Sloan (also 2%, =).

There is little movement on the issue landscape, where the top ranking belongs to housing, poverty and homelessness (26%, =), followed by health care (23%, -2) and the economy and jobs (22%, +2).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 31 and June 1, 2022, among 700 Ontario adults, including 659 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.8 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Josh Evnin

Five-Point Lead for Ruling Progressive Conservatives in Ontario

May 18, 2022June 1, 2022By Mario Canseco

Ontarians are divided when asked if the Liberals and the New Democrats should merge into a single party.

Vancouver, BC [May 18, 2022] – The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party holds the upper hand in the provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 34% of decided voters say they will support the Ontario PC candidate in their riding in next month’s provincial ballot.

The Ontario Liberal Party is second with 29%, followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 23%, the Ontario Green Party with 7%, the New Blue Party of Ontario with 3% and the Ontario Party with 1%.

The Progressive Conservatives are particularly popular among men (37%) and Ontarians aged 55 and over (41%). The Liberals are ahead in the 416 region (37%), while the New Democrats post their best numbers in Southwestern Ontario (32%).

Ontarians are divided when assessing the performance of Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford. While 46% of the province’s residents approve of the way he has handled his duties, 48% disapprove.

More than two-in-five Ontarians approve of both Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath (47%) and Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (42%). The rating is lower for Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (31%), New Blue Party of Ontario leader Jim Karahalios (13%) and Ontario Party leader Derek Sloan (12%).

The first weeks of the campaign have not yielded a positive momentum score for any of the six main party leaders. One-in-five Ontarians (20%) say their opinion of Del Duca has improved. The numbers are paltrier on this indicator for Horwath (17%), Ford (16%), Schreiner (9%), Karahalios (4%) and Sloan (3%).

A third of Ontarians (33%) say Ford would make the best premier of the province, followed by Horwath (23%), Del Duca (20%), Schreiner (3%), Sloan (2%) and Karahalios (also 2%).

Ontarians identify three issues as the most important ones facing the province: housing, poverty and homelessness (26%), health care (25%) and the economy and jobs (20%).

“Ontarians aged 18-to-34 are more likely to look at housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important challenge (36%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Ontarians aged 55 and over are currently more concerned about health care (32%).”

Ford is perceived as the best leader to manage the economy and jobs (35%), crime and public safety (33%), energy and pipelines (31%) and accountability (29%). Horwath is ahead on being able to handle housing, homelessness and poverty (29%).

There is no clear leader when Ontarians ponder the best person to deal with health care (Horwath 28%, Ford 27%), education (Ford 26%, Del Duca 24%) and the environment (Ford 20%, Horwath 19%, Del Duca 19%, Schreiner 17%).

Ontarians are evenly split when asked if the Ontario Liberal Party and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) should merge into a single political party. While 41% of the province’s residents agree with this idea, 43% disagree and 16% are undecided.

Support for a provincial merger of Liberals and New Democrats is strongest in the 416 region (48%), but drops in Eastern Ontario (41%), Northern Ontario (also 41%), Southwestern Ontario (39%) and the 905 region (37%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from May 15 to May 17, 2022, among 700 Ontario adults, including 602 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: DXR

Support for Governing United Conservative Party Drops in Alberta

March 14, 2022March 13, 2022By Mario Canseco

Just over one-in-four of the province’s residents approve of the performance of Jason Kenney as premier.

Vancouver, BC [March 14, 2022] – The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a significant lead over the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would support the NDP candidate in their constituency if a provincial election were held today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.

The governing UCP is a distant second with 30% (-10), followed by the Wildrose Independence Party with 8% (+6), the Alberta Party with 7% (-2), the Liberal Party with 5% (+3), the Green Party with 3% (+1) and the Independence Party with 1%.

The NDP is ahead of the UCP by eight points among male decided voters (40% to 32%) and by 21 points among female decided voters (49% to 28%).

The New Democrats hold significant advantages over the United Conservatives in Edmonton (50% to 25%) and Calgary (47% to 34%). In all other areas of the province, the UCP is barely ahead of the NDP (33% to 31%).

“The UCP is evidently having difficulties maintaining the base together,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While the NDP is keeping 89% of its supporters in the 2019 provincial election, the UCP is only managing to hold on to 51% of their voters.”

Only 26% of Albertans (-16) approve of the way Premier and UCP leader Jason Kenney is managing his duties, while 66% (+16) disapprove.

Almost half of the province’s residents (49%, +4) are satisfied with the performance of Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley.

The approval rating is lower for interim Liberal Party leader John Roggeveen (22%), Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie (20%, +4), Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita (18%), Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman (18%, +2) and Independence Party leader Vicky Bayford (13%).

More than a third of Albertans (36%) believe Notley would make the best premier among seven party leaders. Kenney is second with 17%, with all other contenders in single digits.

When Albertans are asked about the most important issue facing the province, similar proportions select health care (30%, +3) and the economy and jobs (29%, -14). Government accountability is third (13%, +6) followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (7%, +4) and COVID-19 (6%, =).

Animosity towards the idea of implementing a provincial sales tax (PST) has grown in Alberta since December 2020. This month, more than seven-in-ten residents of the province (72%, +7) voice opposition to this idea—including 86% of UCP voters and 65% of NDP voters in 2019.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from March 11 to March 13, 2022, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Ponder Changes to Political Processes

March 8, 2022March 8, 2022By Mario Canseco

Seven-in-ten residents would place political parties under the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act.

Vancouver, BC [March 8, 2022] – Significant proportions of British Columbians are in favour of changing some rules pertaining to leadership races and Freedom of Information requests, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, more than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) agree with using an independent professional accounting firm to administer leadership processes in provincial political parties.

Support for this change is highest among men (68%) and British Columbians aged 55 and over (also 68%).

Most residents of the province who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (71%), the BC Liberals (66%) and the BC Green Party (54%) in the 2020 provincial election support relying on an independent professional accounting firm to administer leadership processes.

Support is not as strong when British Columbians are asked about giving Elections BC the power to administer leadership processes in provincial political parties. While a majority of the province’s residents (53%) agree with this idea, 19% disagree and 27% are undecided.

“There are some significant regional fluctuations when British Columbians ponder whether Elections BC should oversee party leadership processes,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While majorities of residents of Metro Vancouver (56%) and Vancouver Island (55%) would welcome this change, agreement is lower in the Fraser Valley (48%), Northern BC (45%) and Southern BC (43%).”

Seven-in-ten British Columbians (70%) are in favour of subjecting all political parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia to the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act (FIPPA).

Support is exactly the same (70%) for bringing all political parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia under FIPPA.

More than two thirds of British Columbians (69%) support only allowing adults to vote in party leadership elections, and not any individual aged 12 to 17, even if they are party members.

British Columbians aged 55 and over are more likely to reject the possibility of minors participating in party leadership races (80%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (63%) and aged 18-to-34 (also 63%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 12 to February 14, 2022, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

What Is Saskatchewan?

February 25, 2022February 24, 2022By Mario Canseco

Canada’s first crowdsourced poll reveals a province divided, deadlocked and potentially disengaged.

Vancouver, BC [February 25, 2022] – Last week, Saskatchewan residents, hungry for a new way to inform themselves about their government, community and province, crowdsourced Vancouver’s Research Co. to conduct a poll on their behalf.

The answer to the question “What is Saskatchewan?”, however, remains fairly elusive.

An online study conducted from February 19 to February 23, 2022, among a representative sample of 808 adults in Saskatchewan, with a focus on the present and future of the province’s politics, COVID-19 pandemic response and economic conditions, revealed consensus opinion on very little.

For example, one of the most consistent answers, 1 in 4, was “Not sure”, in response to questions on the necessity of new or rebranded political parties to replace the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Saskatchewan Party. More than a third of residents (37%) agreed with the statement that “neither of the two major political parties in Saskatchewan truly represent my views.”

“While support for the Saskatchewan Party amongst all voters remains strong, a significant number of residents feel disengaged when it comes to Saskatchewan’s political future,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Premier Scott Moe’s approval rating stands at 50%, yet 54% of residents agree that his government is not doing enough to deal with the suicide crisis in northern Saskatchewan.”

Tammy Nicklas-Robert, a Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based researcher and communications’ consultant, used the GoFundMe platform to crowdsource the Research Co. study as one potential solution to what she sees as mounting frustration in her province due to a collective sense of isolation and powerlessness.

“When I first floated the idea on social media, I was overwhelmed by the volume and intensity of the response,” says Nicklas-Robert. “What I heard is after two years of the pandemic, Saskatchewan people are feeling isolated, disheartened by what they perceive to be a lack of trustworthy data and facts related to their province’s social, economic and political reality, but also ready to reconnect with like-minded collectives.”

She points to the result on mask-wearing in Saskatchewan after the mandate drops as evidence that those collectives will emerge. More than three-in-five Saskatchewanians (63%) say they plan to continue wearing a mask or face covering when entering businesses and public venues, even if this is no longer a requirement.

“When we know how much anger can be triggered in others when they see someone wearing a medical mask, even during a pandemic, those who plan to continue to wear one in public after February 28 will hopefully find some comfort in knowing that they are well within the majority planning to do the same,” she continued.

More highlights from this study:

COVID-19

A majority of Saskatchewan residents (58%) consider COVID-19 as a real threat to them and their family’s health and safety. More than a third (36%) think COVID-19 is not a real threat.

Most of the province’s residents (53%) are satisfied with the way their municipal government has dealt with COVID-19. The rating is lower for the Saskatchewan government (48%) and the federal Liberal government (37%).

While a majority of Saskatchewanians trust their provincial government to respond to a natural disaster (57%), the trust-level drops on all other issues tested, such as managing the provincial budget (49%), ensuring the sustainability of the health care system (46%) and collaborating with public health and medical professionals to establish health guidelines and restrictions (44%).

Just over two-in-five residents trust their provincial government to release accurate (43%) and complete (41%) information about COVID-19 cases and hospitalization rates to the media and the public.

More than half of Saskatchewanians (55%) agree with the provincial government’s decision to cancel “Proof of Vaccination” or negative test requirement in order to enter specific businesses and public venues, while two-in-five (40%) disagree with it.

Residents are evenly divided on the provincial government’s decision to end the indoor mask mandate on February 28 (Agree 48%, Disagree 47%).

The Economy

Residents are also evenly divided on the state of Saskatchewan’s economy, with 43% considering it “very good” or “good” and 45% deeming it “bad” or “very bad.”

One-in-four Saskatchewanians (26%) expect the provincial economy to improve over the next six months, while 43% foresee no change and one-in-five (19%) predict a decline.

Politics

Half of the province’s residents (50%) approve of Scott Moe’s performance as Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader, while two-in-five (40%) disapprove. The rating is lower for departing Saskatchewan NDP leader Ryan Meili (34%), Progressive Conservative Party leader Glen Leson (17%), Green Party leader Naomi Hunter (15%) and Liberal Party leader Jeff Walters (13%).

More than half of decided voters in the province (53%) would support the Saskatchewan Party if a provincial election were held today, with the Saskatchewan NDP a distant second with 37%. Support is in single digits for the Buffalo Party (3%), the Green Party (2%), the Progressive Conservative Party (also 2%) and the Liberal Party (1%).

Almost half of residents (47%) say they would vote for the Saskatchewan Party if Moe is no longer its leader in the next provincial election—including 86% of those who voted for the party in 2020.

A third of Saskatchewanians (34%) say they plan to vote for the NDP even with a leader other than Meili—including 84% of those who cast ballots for NDP candidates in the last provincial election.

More than three-in-ten residents believe the province needs a new centre-right political party that is not the Saskatchewan Party (33%) or a new centre-left political party that is not the NDP (32%). More than a third (37%) feel that neither of the two major parties in Saskatchewan truly represent their views.

A majority of residents (55%) believe the NDP should consider a re-brand before the next election—a proportion that rises to 61% among those who voted for the New Democrats in 2020.

Just under half of Saskatchewanians believe that the provincial government is doing enough to deal with two pending concerns: the discovery of residential school grave sites (49%) and the future of the oil and gas industry (46%).

Fewer residents think the provincial government is paying enough attention to the impact of climate change (42%), the use of prescription and non-prescription opioid drugs (30%) and the suicide crisis in northern Saskatchewan (27%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 19 to February 23, 2022, among 808 adults in Saskatchewan. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Majorities in Alberta and Ontario Would Prefer a Different Premier

December 28, 2021December 27, 2021By Mario Canseco

Since August, the proportion of Albertans who feel they would be “better off” as a country increased by 10 points to 38%.

Vancouver, BC [December 28, 2021] – As the year draws to an end, residents of Alberta and Ontario are particularly dissatisfied with their premiers, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 51% of Canadians think their province would be better off with a different head of government in charge.

Majorities of Albertans (73%, +5 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August 2021) and Ontarians (57%, +3) suggest that the state of affairs would be more satisfactory under a different premier. The proportion is lower in Quebec (42%, +4) and British Columbia (35%, +1).

Practically half of Canadians (49%, +2) believe their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa, while 36% disagree and 15% are undecided.

Criticism of the current prime minister is strongest in Alberta (65%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (56%) and British Columbia (53%), followed by Ontario (49%), Quebec (42%) and Atlantic Canada (38%).

Just under one-in-five Canadians (18%) believe their province would be better off joining the United States and becoming an American state—a proportion that rises to 25% in Alberta and 24% in Quebec.

Almost two-in-five Albertans (38%, +10) and three-in-ten Quebecers (30%, +5) believe their province would be better off as its own country.

“Separatist sentiment in Alberta is currently near the levels observed in December 2019 (40%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Across the province, 16% of residents strongly agree with the idea that they would be better off as an independent nation.”

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 15 to December 17, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Murphy Set for New Term in New Jersey’s Gubernatorial Election

November 1, 2021November 1, 2021By Mario Canseco

In Virginia, the race is a statistical tie between Republican Glenn Youngkin and Democrat Terry McAuliffe.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2021] – The Democratic Party stands to win one of the gubernatorial elections that will take place tomorrow in the United States, according to two new polls conducted by Research Co. in New Jersey and Virginia.

The surveys of voters who have already cast their ballot in the elections or plan to do so tomorrow show the Democratic incumbent with a seven-point lead in the Garden State, and an extremely tight race in the Old Dominion State.

New Jersey

In the 2017 gubernatorial election, Democratic Party candidate Phil Murphy defeated Republican Party contender Kim Guadagno in the Garden State with 56% of all cast ballots.

Murphy—who is seeking a new term in office—heads to tomorrow’s election with the backing of 53% of decided voters in New Jersey. Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli is second with 46%.

Murphy is supported by 88% of Garden State voters who cast a ballot for Joe Biden in last year’s United States presidential election. Ciattarelli is holding on to 91% of New Jersey voters who backed Donald Trump in 2020.

Virginia

Democratic Party candidate Ralph Northam won the 2017 gubernatorial election in the Old Dominion State with 54% of the vote, defeating Republican Party contender Ed Gillespie. Virginia does not allow incumbent governors to serve consecutive terms.

Tomorrow’s election is a statistical tie, with 49% of decided voters supporting Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin and 48% backing Democratic contender Terry McAuliffe. In addition, 2% of decided voters would support Princess Blanding of the Liberation Party.

McAuliffe served as Virginia’s Governor from 2014 to 2018, winning the 2013 election with 48% of the vote.

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted on October 31 and November 1, 2021, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in two American states: New Jersey and Virginia. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Party Platforms Were Most Influential with Canadian Voters

October 1, 2021September 30, 2021By Mario Canseco

Almost two-in-five voters say the most important factor behind their selection is a party’s ideas and policies.

Vancouver, BC [October 1, 2021] – Canadians who cast a ballot in the 44th federal election say that the party platforms were particularly important in helping them choose which candidate to support, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who voted in this year’s federal election, 59% say that party platforms were “very influential” or “moderately influential” in their decision to support a party.

Practically three-in-four Canadians who voted for the People’s Party in this month’s federal election (74%) cite the platform as a major influence. Sizeable majorities of Canadians who supported the Conservative Party (67%), the Liberal Party (64%) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 64%) feel the same way, along with 39% of Green Party supporters and 19% of Bloc Québécois supporters.

More than two-in-five Canadian voters believe discussions with family (42%) and discussions with friends (also 42%) influenced their vote in the last election, while 35% mention campaign ads on radio and television.

While interaction with candidates on social media was an influencer for 30% of Canadian voters, the proportion rises to 43% among those aged 18-to-34. A similar scenario ensues on the issue of interactions with other people on social media. One-in-four Canadian voters (26%)—and 44% of those aged 18-to-34—say these exchanges influenced their vote.

The survey also asked Canadian voters about the effect of seven different endorsements. More than one-in-four (27%) say they were influenced by the endorsement of U.S. President Barack Obama, including 42% of Liberal Party supporters.

The level of influence was lower for all other endorsements, including those originating from non-governmental organizations (25%), newspapers (24%), trade associations (23%), unions (21%) former U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton (18%, and 27% for Liberal voters) and current U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (17%, and 25% for NDP voters).

When Canadians are asked about their main motivation for supporting a party, almost two-in-five (39%) mention its ideas and policies, while one-in-four (26%) say it is the party leader.

Fewer Canadians are primarily moved by a desire for change (12%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%), a desire for stability (9%) or disgust with other candidates (7%).

“More than three-in-ten Canadians who voted for the Liberals and the Bloc (32% and 31% respectively) say the most important factor behind their choice was the party leaders,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower among those who cast ballots for the Conservatives (25%), the New Democrats (also 25%), the People’s Party (21%) and the Greens (10%).”

Canadians who voted for the People’s Party were more likely to say that their main motivation was disgust with other candidates (14%).

When asked to ponder what this federal election would have looked like with different leaders, just under three-in-ten Canadians (29%) admit they would have voted for the Conservative Party with Peter MacKay as leader or for the Liberal Party with Chrystia Freeland as leader. Fewer Canadian voters (22%) would have supported the Liberals with Mark Carney as leader.

In the “exit poll”, a majority of Canadians (52%) say they would be “very upset” if the Liberal Party forms the government again in Canada. A slightly lower proportion (48%) would feel the same way if the Conservative Party forms the government.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 18 to September 21, 2021, among 1,900 adults in Canada who voted in the 2021 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.3 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

All Tied Up as Canadians Prepare to Vote in the Federal Election

September 19, 2021September 22, 2021By Mario Canseco

Support for both the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party is 32%, while approval of their two leaders is also identical (42%).

Vancouver, BC [September 19, 2021] – Voters in Canada head to tomorrow’s federal election with the two main contending parties enjoying the same level of voter support across the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted earlier this month) would cast a ballot for the candidate of the Liberal Party in their constituency, while 32% (+2) would support the contender of the Conservative Party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in third place with 19% (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 7% (=), the People’s Party with 6% (+1) and the Green Party with 4% (+1). In addition, 1% of decided voters in the country would vote for a different political party or an independent candidate.

On a regional basis, the Liberals are in first place in Atlantic Canada (42%, with the Conservatives at 27%), Quebec (34%, with the Bloc at 31%) and Ontario (37%, with the Conservatives at 30%).

Conversely, the Conservatives dominate in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (43%, with the NDP at 23%) and Alberta (50%, with the NDP at 21%). In British Columbia, the Conservatives are slightly ahead of the New Democrats (33% to 31%), with the Liberals at 25%.

The Green Party gets its best result in British Columbia (6%, but reaching 14% in its stronghold of Vancouver Island). The People’s Party is particularly prevalent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (10%) and Alberta (8%).

As the campaign draws to a close, the approval rating for the two main contenders is exactly the same. Just over two-in-five Canadians (42%) approve of the way both Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau and Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole have performed in their jobs. The disapproval rating is higher for Trudeau (53%) than it is for O’Toole (47%).

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the highest approval rating (51%, +2), while the numbers are significantly lower for Green Party leader Annamie Paul (24%, +1) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (20%, +5). Since the start of the campaign, one-in-four Canadians report having an improved opinion of both Singh (26%) and O’Toole (25%). The proportions are significantly lower for Trudeau (16%), Paul (10%) and Bernier (also 10%).

Trudeau remains ahead when Canadians are asked which of the five leaders running nationwide campaigns would make the best Prime Minister (31%, -2), followed by O’Toole (27%, +1), Singh (19%, +1), Bernier (7%, +2) and Paul (2%, =).

More than a quarter of Canadians (27%, +4) think health care is the most important issue facing the country. The economy and jobs is second on the list with 22% (=), followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (15%, -1) and the environment (10%, -2).

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most important issue for 8% of Canadians—a proportion that rises to 16% in Alberta.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted on September 18 and September 19, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada, and 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for the survey of Canadians and +/- 3.5 percentage points for the survey of British Columbians, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Iouri Goussev

Canadians Pick Trudeau to Manage Pandemic, O’Toole for Jobs

September 16, 2021April 29, 2022By Mario Canseco

There is no clear leader on two matters: housing, homelessness and poverty, and transportation projects.

Vancouver, BC [September 15, 2021] – The incumbent prime minister is the first choice of Canadians to handle issues such as health care and the COVID-19 pandemic, while the leader of the official opposition is preferred for financial and public safety concerns, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample asked Canadians to select which one of the five federal party leaders who are running nationwide campaigns is the best person to manage 16 different issues.

More than a third of Canadians (36%) think Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is better suited to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole with 22%, New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh with 12%, People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier with 6% and Green Party leader Annamie Paul with 2%.

More than three-in-ten Canadians also pick Trudeau to manage foreign affairs (31%), child care (also 31%) and regulations related to firearms (also 31%).

“Earlier in the campaign, Erin O’Toole was tied with Justin Trudeau on the foreign affairs file,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In the final week before votes are cast, Trudeau has a five-point lead on this particular issue.”

The Liberal leader is also ahead of all rivals on being the best person to handle immigration (29%), health care (also 29%), the environment (28%), Indigenous issues and reconciliation (27%), seniors care (26%), and racism and discrimination (also 26%).

One third of Canadians (33%) believe O’Toole would be the best leader to manage the economy and jobs, followed by Trudeau with 29%, Singh with 15%, Bernier with 4% and Paul with 2%.

The Conservative leader is in first place on three other issues: crime and public safety (29%), accountability and leadership (27%), and energy and pipelines (also 27%).

There is a tie on two specific concerns. Across the country, 25% of Canadians select either Trudeau or Singh as the best leaders to manage housing, homelessness and poverty. When asked about transportation projects, equal proportions of respondents pick Trudeau and O’Toole (25% each).

Paul gets her best rating on the environment (14%), while Bernier scores highest on the COVID-19 pandemic (6%).

In a survey released by Research Co. this week, health care, the economy and jobs, housing homelessness and poverty, and the environment were identified as the most important issues facing Canada.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 11 to September 13, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Tobi 87

Canadians Hold Mixed Views on Which Leader is Best on Issues

September 6, 2021September 5, 2021By Mario Canseco

Just under one-in-five Canadians (17%) say they intend to vote by mail in this year’s federal election.

Vancouver, BC [September 6, 2021] – As the federal election campaign continues, the three main federal party leaders are connecting in different ways with Canadians on the most important issues facing the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, just under a third of Canadians (32%) think Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is the best person to handle crime and public safety.

Trudeau is also the preferred choice of Canadians to manage immigration (30%), health care (29%) and the environment (28%).

Official opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole is the top option for Canadians to handle the economy and jobs (34%), energy and pipelines (32%), and accountability and leadership (27%). O’Toole and Trudeau are tied, with 30% each, when Canadians are asked about the best leader to manage foreign affairs (30%).

New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh is the most popular leader to deal with housing, homelessness and poverty (27%), with Trudeau and O’Toole tied at 24%.

Health care is identified as the most important issue facing Canada for 26% of respondents, followed by the economy and jobs with 20%, housing, homelessness and poverty with 15% and the environment with 13%.

The survey also asked Canadians about other characteristics and topics related to the three main federal party leaders. Trudeau emerged as the most popular option to be the Prime Minister in the event of another Quebec referendum (31%) and to represent Canada at the next round of climate change talks (30%).

The incumbent prime minister is also ahead on four personality traits: having a drink with you at the local bar (28%), being on your sports team (also 28%), babysitting your kids or a relative’s kids (25%) and being part of your trivia quiz team (23%, with Singh close behind at 21%).

Singh is practically tied with Trudeau on two of the items tested: having a coffee or tea with you at the local coffee shop (27%, with Trudeau at 26%) and giving you a good recommendation on a book to read (22%, with Trudeau at 21%).

More than three-in-ten Canadians express a preference for O’Toole on three separate matters: negotiating with U.S. President Joe Biden on trade and security issues (34%), being the Prime Minister in the event of a terrorist attack (32%) and negotiating with Russia over Arctic sovereignty (31%).

“There is a theme developing when it comes to the perceptions of Canadians on the three main party leaders,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While Trudeau and Singh score highly on some of the personality traits, like hanging around at a bar or coffee shop, O’Toole has a decisive advantage on foreign policy items.”

This week, there will be two televised debates organized by the Leaders’ Debate Commission. More than two-in-five Canadians (42%) agree with the Commission’s decision to not extend an invitation to these debates to People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier, while 33% disagree and 25% are undecided.

The results are similar when Canadians are asked about the presence of Maverick Party leader Jay Hill on the televised meetings, with 44% agreeing with the decision to leave him out, 27% disagreeing and 29% saying they are not sure.

Almost half of Quebecers (49%) are in favour of the Commission’s decision to leave both Bernier and Hill off the stage.

Across the country, 17% of Canadians say they plan to vote by mail this year—a proportion that includes 30% of British Columbians and 21% of Albertans.

While more than one-in-four Canadians (26%) plan to cast their ballot during Advance Voting from September 10 to September 13, more than two-in-five (44%) intend to vote on Election Day (September 20).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 28 to August 30, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Conservatives Close Gap in Canada as Liberal Lead Disappears

August 31, 2021September 13, 2021By Mario Canseco

Justin Trudeau’s approval rating fell to 45% (-5 since June), but he is still ahead of Erin O’Toole in the “Preferred PM” question.

Vancouver, BC [August 31, 2021] – The federal election in Canada is currently a dead heat between the two most prominent parties in the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 33% of Canadian decided voters would cast a ballot for the candidate of the Liberal Party in their riding, down five points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June.

The Conservative Party remains in second place with 32% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 22% (+2), the Bloc Québécois with 6% (+1), the Green Party with 4% (-1) and the People’s Party with 3% (+2). Fewer than 1% of decided voters would vote for the Maverick Party, for another party or for an independent candidate.

In June, the Liberals were ahead of the Conservatives by 15 points among female decided voters in Canada. This month, the advantage has narrowed to just eight points (36% to 28%). The Tories are now in first place among male decided voters (36% to 31%).

The Liberals are still popular among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (34%, followed by the NDP with 29%) and among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (38%, with the Conservatives at 32%). The Tories hold a seven-point advantage over the Liberals among decided voters aged 55 and over (37% to 30%).

The Liberals are in first place among decided voters in Atlantic Canada (40%) and Quebec (also 40%). The Conservatives have outright leads in Alberta (49%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (46%).

There are close races developing in two Canadian provinces. In Ontario, the Conservatives and the Liberals are essentially tied (36% and 35% respectively). In British Columbia, the Liberals—who were leading in a Research Co. survey conducted in early August—have fallen to third place (28%), with both the Conservatives and the New Democrats at 32%.

There is some movement when Canadians are asked about the most important issue facing the country. Health care is first with 26% (-3), followed by the economy and jobs with 20% (-3) and housing, homelessness and poverty with 15% (+1). The environment is fourth on the list with 13% (+6).

“While health care remains the dominant issue for Atlantic Canadians and Quebecers, financial matters are crucial for those who reside in Alberta,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “One-in-five Ontarians and British Columbians are worried about housing, but the issue that has seen the biggest gains since June is the environment.”

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau stands at 45% at the end of the month. This is higher than the numbers posted by Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole (41%, +7) and lower than NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (51%, +1).

Just over one-in-five Canadians (21%, -11) approve of the way Green Party leader Annamie Paul is handling her duties, while there was no significant movement for People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (15%, +1).

When Canadians are asked which one of the five leaders who are running nationwide campaigns would make the best head of government, the incumbent prime minister also lost some ground. Trudeau is in first place with 32% (-5), followed by O’Toole (26%, +11), Singh (20%, +4), Bernier (3%, =) and Paul (1%, -1).

Since the start of the campaign, Trudeau posts a negative momentum score (-24, with 39% of Canadians saying their opinion of him has worsened). Paul and Bernier are also in negative territory (-18 and -19 respectively), while O’Toole is even and Singh is at +10 (with 27% of Canadians reporting a better assessment of the current NDP leader).

Methodology:

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Separatist Feelings Drop in Quebec, Remain Stagnant in Alberta

August 20, 2021August 19, 2021By Mario Canseco

Most Albertans and Ontarians believe their provinces would be better off with a different premier in charge.

Vancouver, BC [August 20, 2021] – While almost half of Canadians believe their province would benefit from having a different prime minister, fewer residents of Quebec are expressing sympathy towards secession, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 25% of Quebecers believe their province would be better off as its own country, down 11 points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in May 2020.

Only Alberta has a larger proportion of residents who believe they would be better off as a nation (28%, unchanged since May 2020, and lower than the 40% observed in December 2019).

Almost half of Canadians (47%) think their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa, up nine points since May 2020.

More than half of residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%) yearn for someone other than Justin Trudeau to have responsibility over the federal government. The proportion is lower in Alberta (50%), Ontario (48%), British Columbia (46%), Atlantic Canada (38%) and Quebec (37%).

When asked is their province would be better off with a different premier in charge, 47% of Canadians agreed, while just over a third (37%) disagreed. Two thirds of Albertans (68%) and a majority of Ontarians (54%) think their provinces would be better off with a different head of government.

“Since May 2020, the numbers for the premiers of Alberta and Ontario have worsened on this question,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “There is an increase in negative perceptions of eight points for Jason Kenney in Alberta and of 16 points for Doug Ford in Ontario.”

The proportion of residents who are not particularly pleased with their premiers is lower in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (50%), Quebec (38%), Atlantic Canada (37%) and British Columbia (36%).

Across Canada, only 13% of respondents believe their province would be better off joining the United States and becoming an American state, down four points since May 2020. This feeling is more prevalent among residents of Alberta and Quebec (each at 17%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 12 to August 14, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Feel Trudeau is Better for Province Than Harper

August 17, 2021August 16, 2021By Mario Canseco

Roughly the same proportion of the province’s residents would be “very upset” with a win for the Liberals or the Conservatives.

Vancouver, BC [August 17, 2021] – Most residents of British Columbia believe the tenure of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada has been beneficial for the province, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 54% of British Columbians think the province has been treated “very well” or “well” by Trudeau, while one third (34%) believe it has been treated “poorly” or “very poorly.

Respondents are almost evenly split when assessing the effect of the federal government headed by Stephen Harper on British Columbia, with 38% saying he treated the province “very well” or “well” and 42% believing he behaved “poorly” or “very poorly.”

“Almost half of British Columbians aged 55 and over (48%) hold a favourable view on the way the current federal government is treating the province,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Just over a third (35%) feel the same way about the previous federal administration.”

Across British Columbia, just over half of residents (51%) say they would be “very upset” if the Conservative Party forms the government again in Ottawa. Animosity towards a Tory administration rises to 53% among Green Party voters in 2019, 68% among Liberal voters and 72% among New Democratic Party (NDP) voters.

Just under half of British Columbians (48%) say they would be “very upset” if the Liberals win the next election and remain in power, including 85% of Conservative voters, 61% of Green voters and 54% of NDP voters.

Only 35% of British Columbians would be “very upset” if the NDP forms the government for the first time in Ottawa after the next federal election. This includes two thirds of Conservative voters (66%), but significantly lower proportions of those who voted for the Liberals (43%) or the Greens (32%) in 2019.

Four of the current ministers in the federal government represent constituencies located in British Columbia and are seeking re-election this year as candidates for the Liberal Party.

Minister of National Defence Harjit Sajjan has the best approval rating of the four BC-based federal ministers (37%), followed by Minister of Environment and Climate Change Jonathan Wilkinson (31%), Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Disability Inclusion Carla Qualtrough (29%) and Minister of Digital Government Joyce Murray (27%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 7 to August 9, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals Ahead of NDP as British Columbians Ponder Federal Ballot

August 11, 2021August 12, 2021By Mario Canseco

A majority of British Columbians approve of the way Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh are handling their duties.

Vancouver, BC [August 11, 2021] – The governing Liberal Party is currently the most popular federal political organization in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 37% of decided voters in British Columbia say they would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their constituency if a federal election were held tomorrow.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 29%, followed by the Conservative Party with 23%, the Green Party with 8% and the People’s Party with 2%. Fewer than 1% of decided voters would support the Maverick Party or vote for another party or an independent candidate.

The Liberals are in first place in Metro Vancouver (40%) and Southern BC (32%). The races are tighter in the Fraser Valley (Liberals 34%, NDP 32%) and on Vancouver Island (Liberals 33%, NDP 32%).

“There is a significant gender gap when British Columbians assess Canada’s main opposition party,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While 27% of male decided voters in the province would back the Conservatives, only 19% of female decided voters share the same view.”

Just over half of British Columbians (51%) approve of the way Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau has performed in his job. The rating is slightly higher for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (53%) and significantly lower for Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (29%), Green Party leader Annamie Paul (24%), People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (13%) and Maverick Party leader Jay Hill (9%).

A third of British Columbians (33%) believe Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister of Canada. Singh has a six-point edge over O’Toole (22% to 16%), with Paul and Bernier in the low single digits (3% and 2% respectively).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing Canada for 26% of British Columbians, followed by the economy and jobs (20%), health care (19%) and the environment (13%).

Trudeau is regarded as the best party leader to manage foreign affairs (32%), the economy and jobs (31%), immigration (28%), crime and public safety (25%), the environment (also 25%) and accountability and leadership (also 25%).

Singh is seen as the best person to handle housing, homelessness and poverty (29%, with Trudeau at 21%).

Trudeau is virtually tied with O’Toole on energy and pipelines (23% to 21%) and with Singh on health care (26% to 28%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Dllu

British Columbians Give Mixed Reviews to Horgan After Four Years

August 3, 2021August 2, 2021By Mario Canseco

Almost three-in-five residents (59%) think it has become harder for them to make ends meet in the province.

Vancouver, BC [August 3, 2021] – A significant proportion of British Columbians are concerned about affordability issues four years after the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) formed the provincial government, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 59% of British Columbians say it has become harder to make ends meet over the course of the past four years.

“The concerns about the high cost of living in British Columbia are significant across the political spectrum,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of residents who voted for the BC Green Party (70%), the BC NDP (59%) and the BC Liberals (55%) in last year’s provincial election state that making ends meet is more difficult now than in 2017.”

Almost three-in-four British Columbians (74%) think buying a house is now harder than it was in 2017, and more than three-in-five (63%) feel the same way about saving money for retirement.

Roughly half of British Columbians think paying for post-secondary education (52%) and finding a job (49%) are now more difficult than four years ago.

In a Canada-wide Research Co. survey conducted in June 2021, 14% of Canadians—and 19% of British Columbians—identified housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the country.

Just over seven-in-ten British Columbians (71%) believe the housing situation in the province is worse now than it was in 2017, and a majority (53%) feel the same way about taxation.

Just under half of British Columbians (48%) think that public safety is worse now than it was four years ago.

More than two-in-five British Columbians believe there has been no change on four other government files: public schools (49%), health care (48%), the justice system (46%) and the environment (42%).

Half of British Columbians (50%) believe BC NDP leader John Horgan has performed “about the same” as they expected after he became the province’s premier in July 2017.

Similar proportions of British Columbians think Horgan has performed better (20%) or worse (19%) than they originally envisioned.

One third of British Columbians (33%) believe it is too early to judge Horgan’s accomplishments since he became premier, while 26% think he has done little and 21% say he has achieved much.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 17 to July 19, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberals Have Eight-Point Lead Over Tories in Canada

June 17, 2021August 29, 2021By Mario Canseco

Health care is the most important issue facing the country for three-in-ten Canadians, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [June 17, 2021] – The governing Liberal Party remains ahead of its rivals in Canada’s federal political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of Canadian decided voters would support the Liberal candidate in their constituency if a federal election were held tomorrow, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in March.

The Conservative Party is second with 30% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (=), the Bloc Québécois with 5% (-2), the Green Party also with 5% (-1) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by 15 points among female decided voters (40% to 25%). Among male decided voters, the Liberals are barely ahead of the Conservatives (37% to 35%).

This month, the Liberal Party fares best with decided voters aged 55 and over (41%, with the Conservatives at 36%) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (40%, with the NDP at 29%). The race is closer among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (36% for the Liberals, and 34% for the Conservatives).

The Liberals remain the most popular federal party among decided voters in Atlantic Canada (49%), Ontario (42%) and Quebec (39%). The Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta (50%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (also 50%). In British Columbia, the New Democrats are in first place (34%), followed by the Liberals (31%) and the Conservatives (27%).

Half of Canadians (50%, -6) approve of the way Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau is handling his duties.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh posted the same approval rating as Trudeau (50%, +4). The numbers are lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole (34%, +1), Green Party leader Annamie Paul (32%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (14%, -1).

More than a third of Canadians select Trudeau when asked which one of the main party leaders would make the best prime minister (37%, -3). For the first time, Singh is in second place on this indicator (17%, +5), followed by O’Toole (15%, =), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (3%, +1), Bernier (3%, +1) and Paul (2%, -1).

Health care is identified as the most important issue facing the country by 29% of Canadians (-4), followed by the economy and jobs (23%, -1), housing, homelessness and poverty (14%, +5), the environment (9%, +2) and COVID-19 (7%, -4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from June 12 to June 14, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Makaristos

Liberals Stay Ahead as Conservative Support Falls in Canada

March 18, 2021March 15, 2021By Mario Canseco

Two-in-five Canadians think Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister, as Erin O’Toole drops to 15% on this question.

Vancouver, BC [March 18, 2021] – Public support for the governing Liberal Party remains stable in Canada since the end of last year, while fewer voters are willing to cast a ballot for the Conservative Party, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of decided voters in Canada would back the Liberal candidate in their constituency if a federal election were held tomorrow, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.

The Conservatives are in second place with 28% (-3), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (=), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (=), the Green Party with 6% (+3) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Liberals hold a three-point edge over the Conservatives among male decided voters (34% to 31%). Among female decided voters, the Liberals are also first (40%), with the Conservatives and New Democrats tied at 24%.

Support for the Liberal Party is strongest among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (41%, with the NDP in second place with 27%). The governing party is also ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (35%, with the Conservatives at 30%) and aged 55 and over (37% to 29%).

More than two-in-five decided voters in Atlantic Canada (46%), Quebec (43%) and Ontario (42%) are currently backing the Liberals, while the Conservatives are leading in Alberta (46%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (41%). In British Columbia, the New Democrats are slightly ahead of the Liberals (31% to 29%), with the Conservatives in third place (26%).

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau stands at 56% this month (+1) and is higher among women (60%) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (67%).

A third of Canadians (33%, -2) are satisfied with the performance of Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, a proportion that jumps to 47% among Albertans.

“In September 2020, Canadians were divided in three identical groups when assessing O’Toole’s performance as leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Since then, disapproval has risen by 12 points to 46%, and the level of undecideds has fallen from 33% to 21%.”

Since December, the approval rating for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh remains stable (46%, =). The numbers improved for Green Party leader Annamie Paul (30%, +5) and fell slightly for People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (15%, -2).

Trudeau maintains a sizeable advantage over his rivals when Canadians are asked who would make the best prime minister of the country (40%, +1). O’Toole is a distant second on this question with 15% (-7), followed by Singh (12%, -1), Paul (3%, +1), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (2%, =) and Bernier (2%, -1).

A third of Canadians (33%, +5) believe health care is the most important issue facing the country today, followed by the economy and jobs (24%, -3), COVID-19 (11%, -4), housing, homelessness and poverty (9%, =) and the environment (7%, +1).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from March 13 to March 15, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca