Elections – Page 2 – Research Co.

Florida and Ohio Are Red States in U.S. Midterm Election

November 7, 2022November 9, 2022By Mario Canseco

Democratic incumbents in Illinois and New York head to Election Day with significant leads.

Vancouver, BC [November 7, 2022] – The U.S. Senate contests in the states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are remarkably close on the eve of the midterm election in the United States, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in ten American states.

The surveys of Americans who have already participated in the democratic process or plan to do so tomorrow also show Republican candidates dominating the Senate and Governor’s races in Florida and Ohio, and their Democratic counterparts with healthy leads in California, Illinois and New York

Arizona

In 2020, Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Martha McSally in a U.S. Senate special election with 51,2% of the vote. In this month’s contest, Kelly holds a four-point lead over GOP challenger Blake Masters (51% to 47%), with Libertarian Marc Victor at 2%.

In the Grand Canyon State’s gubernatorial election, Republican Kari Lake has a two-point edge over Democrat Katie Hobbs (51% to 49%).

California

Voters in California will take part in two U.S. Senate elections: a special contest to fill a seat until January 2023 and a regular contest to choose a Senator for a six-year term. In each election, Democrat Alex Padilla holds a sizeable advantage over Republican Mark Meuser (63% to 37%).

Incumbent Gavin Newsom of the Democratic Party has a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Brian Dahle in the gubernatorial election (60% to 40%).

Practically seven-in-ten decided voters in the Golden State (69%) say they will vote “Yes” on Proposition 1 which seeks to amend the California Constitution to expressly include an individual’s fundamental right to reproductive freedom.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of the Republican Party has a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Val Demmings (54% to 44%).

Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis is also heavily favoured to win a new term in office in his contest against former governor Charlie Crist (56% to 42%).

Georgia

The U.S. Senate election in the Peach State may have to be decided in a run-off, with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver garnering the support of 1% of decided voters. Challenger Herschel Walker of the Republican Party and incumbent U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock of the Democratic Party are tied with 49% each.

In the gubernatorial election, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp has a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams (53% to 46%).

Illinois

Democrat Tammy Duckworth appears headed to a new six-year term in the U.S. Senate, with a sizeable advantage over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi (58% to 40%).

In the Prairie State’s gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat J. B. Pritzker is 20 points ahead of Republican rival Darren Bailey (59% to 39%).

Nevada

Democratic U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, first elected in 2016, is trailing GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by a single point (48% to 49%).

In the Silver State’s gubernatorial election, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak is also slightly behind Republican contender Joe Lombardo (47% to 49%).

New York

Voters in the Empire State give incumbent U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer of the Democratic Party a substantial lead over GOP challenger Joe Pinion (59% to 39%).

In the gubernatorial election, former Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul of the Democratic Party has a double-digit lead over Republican candidate Lee Zeldin (55% to 45%).

Ohio

In the Buckeye State’s election to the U.S. Senate, J.D. Vance holds an eight-point advantage over Democrat Tim Ryan (54% to 46%).

Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine has a larger lead over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley (61% to 39%).

Pennsylvania

In the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Pat Toomey, Democratic candidate John Fetterman is barely ahead of Republican contender Mehmet Oz (49% to 48%).

The contest for the governor’s office in the Keystone State is not as tight. Democrat Josh Shapiro has a 12-point lead over Republican Doug Mastriano (55% to 43%).

Wisconsin

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson, first elected in 2010, has a six-point lead over Democratic rival Mandela Barnes in the Badger State (53% to 47%).

In the race for governor, incumbent Tony Evers of the Democratic Party and challenger Tim Michels of the Republican Party are tied with the support of 50% of decided voters each.

Methodology:

Results are based on online surveys conducted from November 4 to November 6, 2022, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in ten American states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Conservatives Have Four-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

October 31, 2022November 3, 2022By Mario Canseco

Canadians are evenly split when assessing the accomplishments of the Liberals and the NDP following their March 2022 agreement.

Vancouver, BC [October 31, 2022] – The opposition Conservative Party is ahead in Canada’s federal political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 35% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The governing Liberal Party is in second place with 31%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19%, the Bloc Québécois with 8%, the Green Party with 4% and the People’s Party with 2%.

The Conservatives hold sizeable leads in their traditional strongholds of Alberta (51%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%) and are also first in Ontario (41%) and British Columbia (37%). The Liberals are leading in Quebec (38%, with the Bloc at 32%) and Atlantic Canada (38%).

“Among Canadian decided voters aged 55 and over, the Conservatives have a double-digit lead over the Liberals (41% to 30%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The race is much closer among younger voters.”

More than two-in-five Canadians (44%) approve of the performance of Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau while just over half (51%) disapprove.

The approval rating is higher this month for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (46%, -5 since the last Research Co. survey conducted before the 2021 federal election).

More than a third of Canadians (37%) approve of the way Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has handled his duties, while 44% disagree and 19% are undecided.

The numbers are lower for Green interim leader Amita Kuttner (22%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (20%, and 38% in Quebec) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (18%).

Practically three-in-ten Canadians (29%, +7 since September 2021) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing Canada, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (21%, +6), health care (also 21%, -6), the environment (7%, -3), accountability and leadership (5%, -1), immigration (4%, +1) and crime and public safety (also 4%, +1).

The economy and jobs is regarded as the most pressing federal concern for residents of Alberta (38%), Quebec (33%), Ontario (30%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 30%).

Health care is the prevalent issue for Atlantic Canadians (35%), while housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter in British Columbia (33%).

When asked which one of the six main party leaders would make the best prime minister of Canada, Trudeau holds a six-point advantage over Poilievre (30% to 24%), followed by Singh (17%), Blanchet (4%), Bernier (2%) and Kuttner (1%).

Residents of two provinces are almost evenly divided on whether Trudeau or Poilievre would be the best head of government for Canada right now. In Ontario, Poilievre is a point ahead of Trudeau (30% to 29%). In British Columbia, the current prime minister edges the opposition leader by the same margin (27% to 26%).

More than two-in-five Canadians (43%) say they are comfortable with Trudeau being charge of Canada’s economy, a proportion that rises to 45% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 52% in Quebec.

Just under two-in-five Canadians (39%) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being charge of Canada’s economy, including 48% of Albertans and 43% of Ontarians.

There is no clear consensus on what the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP has meant to Canada so far. Across the country, 44% are satisfied with the accomplishments of this deal, while the same proportion (44%) are dissatisfied.

Liberal voters in the 2021 federal election are significantly more likely to hold positive views on the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement (80%) than those who voted for the New Democrats (51%) or the Conservatives (13%).

The country is also divided on whether a federal election should be called in the next six months now that the Conservatives have a full time leader (Agree 44%, Disagree 41%).

Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in the last federal election are more convinced about the need to hold a fresh ballot now (73%) than their counterparts who supported the NDP (44%) or the Liberals (30%) in 2021.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 24 to October 26, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Quebec Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

October 17, 2022October 16, 2022By Mario Canseco

Supporters of the governing CAQ say leader François Legault was their primary motivator for casting a ballot.

Vancouver, BC [October 17, 2022] – By the mid-way point of the campaign, it became clear that the provincial election in Quebec would become a race for second place, both in terms of voting percentages and seats.

The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) ultimately garnered 41% of all cast ballots, in tune with the final survey published by Research Co. Premier François Legault, who held the upper hand on approval and on the “Best Premier” question, now leads a caucus of 90 members in the National Assembly—a 14-seat improvement from his first election victory in 2018.

When it comes to the main motivators of support, our “Exit Poll” shows that the Quebec electorate was equally invested in the party’s leader (35%) and the party’s ideas and policies (34%). Significantly fewer voters were primarily concerned about a desire for stability (15%), a desire for change (9%), the party’s candidate in the riding (8%) or disgust with other contending candidates (6%).

For the governing CAQ, building the campaign around the personality of the current head of government paid off handsomely. The party’s leader was the main motivator for 43% of CAQ voters. A look at what we found in Ontario earlier this year shows the command that Legault has on his party’s base. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who also earned a majority mandate, was seen as the primary motivator for 31% of Progressive Conservative voters, 12 points below what we see in Quebec.

The level of rapport with leaders is significantly lower among the other four parties. More than a third of Parti Québécois (PQ) voters (36%) were motivated by leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The proportions on this indicator drop to 27% for Dominique Anglade among Liberal Party of Quebec voters, 26% for Éric Duhaime among Conservative Party of Quebec voters, and just 20% for co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois among Québec solidaire voters.

In Quebec, few voters looked at the candidate in their riding as a key factor in their decision, with numbers ranging from a high of 13% for Liberal and PQ voters to a low of 6% among those who cast ballots for CAQ candidates. Desire for change, an item that is always crucial for opposition parties, stands at 9% as a main motivator across the province, rising to 20% among Québec solidaire voters.

Québec solidaire is also unique when we measure how many Quebecers chose who to support based primarily on a party’s ideas and policies, with a total score of 48%. All other parties have lower scores (Liberals 39%, Conservatives 38%, PQ 36% and CAQ 28%).

On the “strategic vote” question, Quebecers are evenly split. Almost half (49%) admit to having voted for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they disliked, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. Supporters of the Liberals (61%) and the Conservatives (53%) were more likely to behave this way.

Age is a key aspect behind the allure of “strategic voting”. In Quebec, 62% of voters aged 18-to-34 say they voted strategically, compared to 47% among those aged 35-to-54 and 37% among those aged 55 and over. These results are very similar to what we found when we asked this question in Ontario. In Eastern Canada, the younger the voter, the more likely he or she is to look at outside information before casting a ballot. Those aged 55 and over are significantly more likely to simply go with their first choice.

Finally, we asked voters in Quebec a question about their nationality. Just over half (52%) say they consider themselves “Quebecers first, Canadians second.” This is a significantly higher level of provincial identification than what we found in August when we asked representative samples of Albertans (28%) and British Columbians (22%).

When these results are analyzed by party support, majorities of those who cast ballots for the Liberals (82%) and the Conservatives (59%) identify as Canadian. In contrast, supporters of Québec solidaire (52%), the CAQ (60%) and the PQ (86%) are more likely to say they are Quebecers first.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 3 and October 4, 2022, among 500 Quebec adults who voted in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Deadlock As Voters in Vancouver Prepare for Municipal Election

October 14, 2022October 16, 2022By Mario Canseco

Housing (43%, up eight points) remains the most important issue for likely voters in the city, followed by crime (14%, up five points).

Vancouver, BC [October 14, 2022] – The outcome of the mayoral election in Vancouver is uncertain, with the two main contenders tied and about one-in-seven likely voters still undecided about who they will support tomorrow, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Vancouver finds both incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Together and challenger Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC) garnering the support of 33% of decided voters. The numbers represent a two-point drop for Stewart and a three-point gain for Sim since a Research Co. survey conducted in early September.

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver remains in third place with 16% (-1), followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 8% (-5) and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) also with 8% (+4). Two per cent of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for one of the other ten mayoral candidates.

Among male decided voters, Stewart has a three-point edge over Sim (37% to 34%). The race is closer among female voters, with Sim one point ahead of Stewart (31% to 30%), and Hardwick at 21%.

Stewart is the top choice for voters on both the East side of Vancouver (37%) and Downtown (35%), while Sim holds the upper hand on the West side (35%).

Among likely voters who own their primary residence, Sim has a five-point lead over Stewart (38% to 33%), while Stewart is ahead of Sim among likely voters who rent their primary residence (33% to 25%).

“On the eve of the election, 14% of likely voters in Vancouver are still undecided about which mayoral candidate to back,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion of undecided voters is higher among women (17%), likely voters aged 35-to-54 (17%), residents of the West Side (16%) and renters (18%).”

More than two-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (43%, +8) identify housing is the most important issue facing the city—a proportion that rises to 47% among women and to 49% among likely voters aged 55 and over.

Crime is second on the list of pressing concerns for likely voters in Vancouver at 14% (+5), followed by property taxes (10%, +1), poverty (8%, -1) and drug overdoses (8%, -6).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 13 and October 14, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver, including 344 decided voters in the 2022 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 5.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

CAQ Headed for Second Majority Mandate in Quebec

October 2, 2022October 17, 2022By Mario Canseco

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2022] – The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) heads to tomorrow’s provincial election as the overwhelming favourite, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Quebec, 41% of decided voters will cast a ballot for the CAQ candidate in their constituency, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-September.

The Liberal Party of Quebec and the Conservative Party of Quebec are tied for second place with 16% each (-1 and -2 respectively), followed by Québec solidaire with 14% (=) and the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 12% (+2).

More than three-in-five decided voters aged 55 and over (64%) say they will support the CAQ, along with 39% of those aged 35-to-54. Québec solidaire is the top choice for decided voters aged 18-to-34 (30%).

A majority of likely voters in Quebec (55%, -2) approve of François Legault’s performance as Premier and CAQ leader—a proportion that rises to 68% among those aged 55 and over.

Since mid-September, the approval rating improved for Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (42%, +5), PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (40%, +4) and Official Opposition and Liberal leader Dominique Anglade (39%, +6). The numbers are lower for Conservative leader Éric Duhaime (29%, -2).

On the “Best Premier” question, Legault maintains a sizeable lead (40%, -3), followed by Nadeau-Dubois (12%, +2), Duhaime (also 12%, -1), Anglade (10%, -1), and Plamondon (8%, +2).

“More than seven-in-ten CAQ voters from the 2018 election (73%) think Legault would make the best premier out of the five main party leaders in Quebec ,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In stark contrast, only 30% of Liberal voters from the previous provincial ballot feel the same way about Anglade.”

The most important issue for likely voters in Quebec is health care (40%, -5), followed by the economy and jobs (17%, +1) and housing, homelessness and poverty (12%, unchanged).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2022, among 708 likely voters in Quebec, including 637 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of likely voters and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Governing CAQ Heavily Favoured by Voters in Quebec

September 23, 2022September 29, 2022By Mario Canseco

More than half of Quebecers approve of the way François Legault is handling his duties as premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 23, 2022] – The ruling Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is the top choice of voters in the upcoming provincial ballot, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Quebecers, 40% of decided voters say they will support the CAQ candidate in their constituency in next month’s provincial election.

The Conservative Party of Quebec is second with 18%, followed by the Liberal Party of Quebec with 17%, Québec solidaire with 14% and the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 10%.

Support is particularly impressive for the CAQ among decided voters aged 55 and over (60%). The governing party is also ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (35%) while Québec solidaire is first among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (31%).

“The CAQ is holding on to more than three-in-four of its voters (77%) in the 2018 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rates are decidedly lower for the Liberals (52%), Québec solidaire (50%) and the PQ (47%).”

More than half of Quebecers (57%) approve of the way Premier and CAQ leader François Legault has performed in his job. The rating is lower for Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (37%), PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (36%), Official Opposition and Liberal leader Dominique Anglade (33%) and Conservative leader Éric Duhaime (31%).

Legault is also ahead on the “Best Premier” question (43%), with Duhaime (13%), Anglade (11%), Nadeau-Dubois (10%) and Plamondon (6%) far behind.

Among the five main party leaders, only Plamondon manages a positive momentum score at this stage of the campaign (+1). Nadeau-Dubois (-4), Legault (-11), Duhaime (-15) and Anglade (-15) are in negative territory.

More than two-in-five Quebecers (45%) identify health care as the most important issue facing the province—a proportion that rises to 58% among those aged 55 and over. Only two other issues reach double-digits at the province-wide level: the economy and jobs (16%) and housing, homelessness and poverty (12%).

Legault is seen as the best party leader to handle six issues: the economy and jobs (39%), health care (36%), accountability (also 36%), crime and public safety (33%), education (30%) and energy and pipelines (28%).

The numbers are tighter on two other concerns: housing, poverty and homelessness (Legault 27%, Nadeau-Dubois 23%) and the environment (Legault 23%, Nadeau-Dubois 22%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 19 to September 21, 2022, among 700 Quebec adults, including 616 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart and Sim Are Frontrunners in Vancouver Mayoral Election

September 8, 2022September 8, 2022By Mario Canseco

More than a third of likely voters believe housing is the most important issue facing the city right now.

Vancouver, BC [September 8, 2022] – Four mayoral candidates are in double-digits as voters in Vancouver ponder their choices in next month’s election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 35% of decided voters in the City of Vancouver would support incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Vancouver, while 30% would cast their ballot for Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC).

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver is in third place with 17 per cent, followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 13% and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) with 4%.

More than a third of likely voters in Vancouver (35%) say housing is the most important issue facing the city, followed by drug overdoses (14%), crime (9%), poverty (also 9%) and property taxes (also 9%).

“Concerns about housing are particularly high among women (42%) and likely voters aged 35-to-54 (39%) in the City of Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Drug overdoses are a more prevalent topic among likely voters who reside Downtown (19%) than among their counterparts who live on the West Side (13%) or the East Side (11%).”

Two thirds of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (67%) have followed the municipal electoral campaign “very closely” or “moderately closely.”

Over the past two months, a majority of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (52%) have seen, read or heard media stories where mayoral or council candidates discussed their position on issues. Almost three-in-ten (29%) have visited the website of a mayoral or council candidate.

While 16% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver have interacted with a mayoral or council candidate on social media (such as following on Twitter or liking on Facebook), the proportion rises to 25% among those aged 18-to-34.

Just over two thirds of likely voters in Vancouver (68%) support the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education”, which raises awareness of and welcomes students of all sexual orientations, gender identities and family structures.

In national survey conducted by Research Co. in July 2019, 62% of Canadians supported the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education” in their province.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 3 to September 5, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Americans More Upset Than Canadians When Pondering Freedom

August 25, 2022August 24, 2022By Mario Canseco

Just over half of residents of each country feel their vote in federal elections does not make a difference.

Vancouver, BC [August 25, 2022] – Residents of the United States are significantly more likely than their counterparts in Canada to keep their political views to themselves, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 49% of Americans and 32% of Canadians say they cannot express their political views sometimes because they fear reprisals.

“Most Republicans in the United States (55%) claim to withhold their political views sometimes, compared to 47% of Democrats and 48% of Independents,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Canada, this behaviour is more pronounced among those who voted for the People’s Party (68%), the Green Party (43%) and the Conservative Party (41%) in last year’s federal election.”

While more than seven-in-ten Americans (73%) feel that their freedoms are under attack by elected politicians, only 39% of Canadians hold the same sentiment.

More than three-in-five Americans (62%) and just over two-in-five Canadians (41%) believe their respective federal governments are oppressive and controlling.

More than half of Americans (52%) and Canadians (51%) feel that their vote in federal elections does not make a difference.

More than a third of Canadians think four issues are worse now than ten years ago: the ability of people to disagree with each other on social media (46%), the ability of people to disagree with each other in conversation (40%), the ability of people to convince others about looking at an issue differently (38%) and the ability of people to question stories they learn about in the media (37%).

Americans are significantly more likely to believe that certain elements of public discourse have deteriorated over the past decade, including the ability of people to disagree with each other on social media (63%), the ability of people to disagree with each other in conversation (62%), the ability of people to convince others about looking at an issue differently (58%) and the ability of people to question stories they learn about in the media (50%).

More than one-in-five Canadians say they find themselves disagreeing with other people “many times” about COVID-19 mandates and vaccines (26%), federal politics (24%) and provincial politics (22%).

In the United States, at least one-in-four residents disagree with other people “many times” about national politics (40%), COVID-19 mandates and vaccines (36%), state politics (28%), immigration (also 28%), morality (25%) and local politics (also 25%).

More than three-in-ten Canadians (31%) say they stopped talking to a person, or avoided a person, on account of a disagreement related to COVID-19 mandates and vaccines. Fewer Canadians chose the same route to deal with a person who they disagreed with on morality (22%), religion (20%), federal politics (19%) and immigration (18%).

In the United States, at least one-in-five Americans have ceased talking to a person, or avoided a person, due to a disagreement on national politics (32%), COVID-19 mandates and vaccines (30%), morality (25%), religion (24%), immigration (22%) and state politics (21%).

Methodology: Results are based on online studies conducted from August 19 to August 21, 2022, among representative samples of 1,000 adults Canada and the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian and U.S. census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for each country.

Find our data tables for Canada here, the data tables for the United States here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Not All Metro Vancouverites Are Keen on Amalgamation

August 12, 2022August 11, 2022By Mario Canseco

Almost two-in-five likely voters in the region think housing is the most important issue facing their municipality right now.

Vancouver, BC [August 12, 2022] – The idea of merging all Metro Vancouver municipalities into a single entity is not particularly attractive to all likely voters in the region, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Metro Vancouver, 44% of respondents think it would be worthwhile to explore the idea of amalgamating all of the municipalities in Metro Vancouver, like they did in Toronto or Montreal.

“Majorities of likely voters in Surrey (53%) and Vancouver (52%) favour the concept of amalgamation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In all other regions of Metro Vancouver, the level of support for this concept is decidedly lower.”

In the North Shore municipalities, only 40% of likely voters think it is time to explore amalgamation. The proportions are lower in Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (37%), the Tri-Cities (35%), Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (23%) and Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge (13%).

More than two-in-five likely voters in Metro Vancouver (45%) think their municipality should abandon the “at-large system” (where voters select individual councillors) and move to a “ward system” (where councillors can be elected in specific constituencies).

The “ward system” is more popular in the two most populous municipalities: Vancouver (60%) and Surrey (53%).

Almost two-in-five likely voters in Metro Vancouver (38%) say housing is the most important issue facing their municipality, followed by property taxes (11%), crime (9%), climate change (also 9%) and COVID-19 (8%).

Housing is a particularly serious concern for likely voters in Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (55%), while concerns over crime are more prevalent in Surrey (18%) and Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (13%) .

More than half of likely voters in the Tri-Cities (64%), the North Shore (61%), Vancouver (54%) and Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (53%) are satisfied with the performance of their mayors. The rating is lower in Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (40%), Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge (also 40%) and Surrey (23%).

More than three-in-five likely voters in the Tri-Cities (62%) and the North Shore (61%) are satisfied with the work of their councils. All other regions are below the 50% mark on this question, including Burnaby, Richmond and New Westminster (47%), Vancouver (37%), Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge (36%), Delta, White Rock, the City of Langley and the Township of Langley (34%) and Surrey (28%).

Almost half of likely voters across Metro Vancouver (47%) say they are satisfied with the state of affairs in their municipality. Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge hold the lowest ranking on this question (20%) while the Tri-Cities are at the top (68%).

More than half of likely voters in Metro Vancouver are satisfied with three other issues in their respective municipalities: public safety (55%), the quality of services (64%) and cleanliness (67%).

The lowest rating for public safety is observed in Surrey, where 39% of likely voters are satisfied and a majority (57%) are dissatisfied.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 3 to August 6, 2022, among 800 likely voters in Metro Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Almost Three-in-Five Vancouver Voters Want a Ward System

June 21, 2022June 21, 2022By Mario Canseco

Majorities also support establishing tougher guidelines for residents who want to become candidates for public office.

Vancouver, BC [June 21, 2022] – More voters in the City of Vancouver are in favour of changing the way they elect their councillors, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 58% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (+6 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in November 2020) would move to a “ward system” (where councillors can be elected in specific constituencies) and abandon the currently used “at-large system” (where voters select 10 councillors).

Support for the implementation of a “ward system” in Vancouver is high among likely voters who reside in the East Side (57%), the West Side (58%) and Downtown (60%).

Majorities of voters who cast ballots for Kennedy Stewart (66%), Ken Sim (63%) or Shauna Sylvester (56%) in the 2018 Vancouver mayoral election are in favour of a “ward system.”

In order to run for office in the City of Vancouver, candidates are currently required to present the signatures of 25 nominators. More than three-in-five likely voters (62%, +2) believe this number should be raised to 100 signatures in future elections.

“Voters of all ages believe it is time to raise the bar for aspiring municipal politicians in Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of likely voters aged 18-to-34 (60%), aged 35-to-54 (62%) and aged 55 and over (65%) believe candidates must secure at least 100 signatures if they want their name to appear on the ballot.”

In addition, candidates who wish to run for office in the City of Vancouver are currently required to pay a $100 deposit, which is refunded after the election. More than half of likely voters (54%, -1) think this number should be raised to $500 in future elections.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 7 to June 9, 2022, among 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

More Than Half of Vancouver Voters Would Abolish Park Board

June 17, 2022June 17, 2022By Mario Canseco

Almost three-in-five respondents support changing zoning laws to allow up to six strata title units on a standard lot.

Vancouver, BC [June 17, 2022] – Public confidence in the only elected Park Board in Canada has eroded considerably over the past year and a half, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 52% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver think the Board of Parks and Recreation should be eliminated, and that public parks and the public recreation system should be placed under the jurisdiction of City Council.

“In November 2020, only 44% of municipal likely voters in Vancouver favoured the elimination of the Board of Parks and Recreation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This month, the proportion has reached 52%.”

Public support for abolishing Vancouver’s Park Board is highest among likely voters who reside Downtown (63%), followed by those who live in the West Side (52%) and the East Side (45%).

Vancouverites who voted for Kennedy Stewart or Ken Sim in the 2018 mayoral election are significantly more likely to endorse the abolition of the Board of Parks and Recreation (61% and 60% respectively) than those who cast a ballot for Shauna Sylvester (43%).

Just over half of likely voters in Vancouver (51%, +5) believe it would be worthwhile to explore the idea of amalgamating all of the municipalities in Metro Vancouver, like they did in Toronto or Montreal.

Two thirds of Vancouverites who voted for Stewart in 2018 (67%) support exploring the concept of amalgamation, compared to just under half of those who cast a ballot for Sim (49%).

Almost three-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (58%, +5) are in favour of changing zoning laws to allow property owners to build up to six strata title units on a standard lot, provided the new building is no taller than an average home.

Majorities of Vancouver’s likely voters who currently rent or own their primary residence support a change in zoning laws (65% and 54% respectively).

Seven-in-ten likely voters in the City of Vancouver (71%, -10) are in favour of the plan to extend the Skytrain Millennium Line (currently under construction to Arbutus) to the University of British Columbia (UBC) campus at Point Grey.

Public support for the proposed SkyTrain extension is strongest among likely voters who reside Downtown (75%), followed by those who live in the East Side (72%) and the West Side (67%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Ontario Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

June 8, 2022June 6, 2022By Mario Canseco

While most voters pointed out that it was “time for change”, the two main opposition leaders never gained on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [June 8, 2022] – The Progressive Conservative Party will form a majority government once again in Ontario, after all the votes from the 2022 provincial election have been tallied. An “exit poll” conducted by Research Co. provides an opportunity to look at why the sentiment for change that was expressed by most voters never materialized.

In our final poll of the campaign, Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford had a significant advantage over his main rivals on the “Best Premier” question. While 37% of Ontarians favoured Ford for the province’s top job, the rating was decidedly lower for Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath (21%) and Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (19%).

The election’s outcome does not suggest an extraordinary rekindling of voters with Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, but rather a failure from the two opposition parties to entice voters. In 2018, right before Ford’s victory and the end of the tenure of Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, more than three-in-four voters in Ontario (77%) thought a new premier was needed.

In our survey of Ontarians who cast a ballot in the 2022 provincial election, 64% of respondents told us that it was “time for a change of government” in the province. The desire to make Ford a one-term premier encompassed enormous proportions of Ontarians who voted for the NDP (95%) and the Liberals (88%) this year.

Still, when Ontario voters were asked to point out their main motivation for supporting a particular party in 2022, more than two-in-five (44%) mentioned ideas and policies. This indicator is more powerful for New Democrats (48%) and Liberals (47%) than for Progressive Conservatives (40%).

On the other hand, one-in-four Ontario voters (25%) say their ballot was cast primarily on account of the party’s leader. This time, the two opposition parties lag. While 31% of Progressive Conservatives thought of the leader more than anything, the numbers drop to 21% among those who supported either the New Democrats or the Liberals.

Across Ontario, only 9% of voters said they were thinking of a desire for change when casting their ballot. This indicator usually rises in provincewide elections when incumbents are unpopular. Even among New Democrats and Liberals, the number of voters who actively yearned for a new government was small (14% and 12% respectively).

One of the biggest hindrances that centre-left supporters may point to is the electoral system. In spite of endless discussions about “strategic voting”—with some pointing to predictions in an attempt to lure voters to one party or another—only 45% of Ontarians said they cast their ballot strategically: voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. As expected, “strategic voting” was significantly more favoured by voters aged 18-to-34 (62%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (47%) and aged 55 and over (33%).

But even if “strategic voting” failed to deliver change, many Ontarians would be happy with proportional representation in provincial elections. Across the province, 58% of voters like this idea. There is no generation gap on this question, with similar proportions of voters aged 18-to-34 (58%), aged 35-to-54 (59%) and aged 55 and over (57%) welcoming a new system. As expected, those who cast ballots for the New Democrats (70%) and Liberals (64%) are more enthused about the prospect of electoral reform than those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives (53%).

Ontario voters are not entirely convinced on enacting a merger of the two centre-left parties. Just under two-in-five Ontario voters (39%) would welcome this idea, but this number includes majorities of those who cast ballots for the Liberals (58%) and the New Democrats (57%). Progressive Conservative voters, who envisioned their party coasting to a win, are significantly more skeptical: only 23% would like to see a united “Liberal Democrat” party in 2026.

Even with a majority mandate, and with severe tasks ahead for the opposition, there is a sense of dismay from voters. Practically four-in-five (79%) say they would like to see better people serving as leaders of Ontario’s main political parties. On this question, significant majorities of supporters of the New Democrats (87%), Liberals (83%) and Progressive Conservatives (72%) think these political organizations owe them better options, individually and collectively.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on June 1 and June 2, 2022, among 500 Ontario adults who voted in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Double-Digit Advantage for Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives

June 1, 2022June 7, 2022By Mario Canseco

Half of Ontarians (50%) approve of the performance of Doug Ford as Premier and PC leader, while 46% disapprove.

Vancouver, BC [June 1, 2022] – Public support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party has increased as the provincial election in Ontario draws near, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarian adults, 39% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their riding tomorrow or have already done so, up five points since the previous Research Co. poll completed in mid-May.

The Ontario Liberal Party remains in second place with 26% (-3), followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 23% (=), the Ontario Green Party with 6% (-1), the New Blue Party of Ontario with 3% (=) and the Ontario Party with 1% (=).

Since mid-May, the Progressive Conservatives have improved their standing in Ontario among both male decided voters (42%, +5) and female decided voters (37%, +7).

More than two-in-five decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (also 42%) intend to back an Ontario PC candidate. The race is closer among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (PC 31%, Liberal 28%, NDP 26%).

“The Progressive Conservatives are keeping 81% of their 2018 voters, while the New Democrats are only maintaining 71% of them,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The Ontario Liberals are only attracting 52% of Ontarians who voted for the federal Liberal Party in last year’s Canadian federal election, as one-in-four of these voters (25%) are planning to vote for Ontario PC candidates tomorrow.”

Half of Ontarians (50%, +4) approve of the way Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford has handled his duties.

The rating is lower for Official Opposition and Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath (46%, -1) Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (42%, =), Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%, +9), New Blue Party of Ontario leader Jim Karahalios (16%, +3) and Ontario Party leader Derek Sloan (16%, +4).

On the momentum question, Schreiner does particularly well, with 18% of Ontarians (+9 since mid-May) saying their opinion of the Ontario Green Party leader has improved since the electoral campaign started. The needle did not move for Del Duca (20%, =) and smaller gains are seen for Horwath (19%, +2), Ford (also 19%, +3), Karahalios (6%, +2) and Sloan (5%, +2).

More than a third of Ontarians (37%, +4) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province among the six main party leaders. Horwath is a distant second with 21% (-2), followed by Del Duca (19%, -1), Schreiner (7%, +4), Karahalios (2%, =) and Sloan (also 2%, =).

There is little movement on the issue landscape, where the top ranking belongs to housing, poverty and homelessness (26%, =), followed by health care (23%, -2) and the economy and jobs (22%, +2).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 31 and June 1, 2022, among 700 Ontario adults, including 659 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.8 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Josh Evnin

Five-Point Lead for Ruling Progressive Conservatives in Ontario

May 18, 2022June 1, 2022By Mario Canseco

Ontarians are divided when asked if the Liberals and the New Democrats should merge into a single party.

Vancouver, BC [May 18, 2022] – The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party holds the upper hand in the provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 34% of decided voters say they will support the Ontario PC candidate in their riding in next month’s provincial ballot.

The Ontario Liberal Party is second with 29%, followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 23%, the Ontario Green Party with 7%, the New Blue Party of Ontario with 3% and the Ontario Party with 1%.

The Progressive Conservatives are particularly popular among men (37%) and Ontarians aged 55 and over (41%). The Liberals are ahead in the 416 region (37%), while the New Democrats post their best numbers in Southwestern Ontario (32%).

Ontarians are divided when assessing the performance of Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford. While 46% of the province’s residents approve of the way he has handled his duties, 48% disapprove.

More than two-in-five Ontarians approve of both Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath (47%) and Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (42%). The rating is lower for Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (31%), New Blue Party of Ontario leader Jim Karahalios (13%) and Ontario Party leader Derek Sloan (12%).

The first weeks of the campaign have not yielded a positive momentum score for any of the six main party leaders. One-in-five Ontarians (20%) say their opinion of Del Duca has improved. The numbers are paltrier on this indicator for Horwath (17%), Ford (16%), Schreiner (9%), Karahalios (4%) and Sloan (3%).

A third of Ontarians (33%) say Ford would make the best premier of the province, followed by Horwath (23%), Del Duca (20%), Schreiner (3%), Sloan (2%) and Karahalios (also 2%).

Ontarians identify three issues as the most important ones facing the province: housing, poverty and homelessness (26%), health care (25%) and the economy and jobs (20%).

“Ontarians aged 18-to-34 are more likely to look at housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important challenge (36%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Ontarians aged 55 and over are currently more concerned about health care (32%).”

Ford is perceived as the best leader to manage the economy and jobs (35%), crime and public safety (33%), energy and pipelines (31%) and accountability (29%). Horwath is ahead on being able to handle housing, homelessness and poverty (29%).

There is no clear leader when Ontarians ponder the best person to deal with health care (Horwath 28%, Ford 27%), education (Ford 26%, Del Duca 24%) and the environment (Ford 20%, Horwath 19%, Del Duca 19%, Schreiner 17%).

Ontarians are evenly split when asked if the Ontario Liberal Party and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) should merge into a single political party. While 41% of the province’s residents agree with this idea, 43% disagree and 16% are undecided.

Support for a provincial merger of Liberals and New Democrats is strongest in the 416 region (48%), but drops in Eastern Ontario (41%), Northern Ontario (also 41%), Southwestern Ontario (39%) and the 905 region (37%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from May 15 to May 17, 2022, among 700 Ontario adults, including 602 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: DXR

Support for Governing United Conservative Party Drops in Alberta

March 14, 2022March 13, 2022By Mario Canseco

Just over one-in-four of the province’s residents approve of the performance of Jason Kenney as premier.

Vancouver, BC [March 14, 2022] – The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a significant lead over the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) in Alberta, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters in Alberta would support the NDP candidate in their constituency if a provincial election were held today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.

The governing UCP is a distant second with 30% (-10), followed by the Wildrose Independence Party with 8% (+6), the Alberta Party with 7% (-2), the Liberal Party with 5% (+3), the Green Party with 3% (+1) and the Independence Party with 1%.

The NDP is ahead of the UCP by eight points among male decided voters (40% to 32%) and by 21 points among female decided voters (49% to 28%).

The New Democrats hold significant advantages over the United Conservatives in Edmonton (50% to 25%) and Calgary (47% to 34%). In all other areas of the province, the UCP is barely ahead of the NDP (33% to 31%).

“The UCP is evidently having difficulties maintaining the base together,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While the NDP is keeping 89% of its supporters in the 2019 provincial election, the UCP is only managing to hold on to 51% of their voters.”

Only 26% of Albertans (-16) approve of the way Premier and UCP leader Jason Kenney is managing his duties, while 66% (+16) disapprove.

Almost half of the province’s residents (49%, +4) are satisfied with the performance of Official Opposition and NDP leader Rachel Notley.

The approval rating is lower for interim Liberal Party leader John Roggeveen (22%), Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie (20%, +4), Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita (18%), Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman (18%, +2) and Independence Party leader Vicky Bayford (13%).

More than a third of Albertans (36%) believe Notley would make the best premier among seven party leaders. Kenney is second with 17%, with all other contenders in single digits.

When Albertans are asked about the most important issue facing the province, similar proportions select health care (30%, +3) and the economy and jobs (29%, -14). Government accountability is third (13%, +6) followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (7%, +4) and COVID-19 (6%, =).

Animosity towards the idea of implementing a provincial sales tax (PST) has grown in Alberta since December 2020. This month, more than seven-in-ten residents of the province (72%, +7) voice opposition to this idea—including 86% of UCP voters and 65% of NDP voters in 2019.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from March 11 to March 13, 2022, among 600 adults in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians Ponder Changes to Political Processes

March 8, 2022March 8, 2022By Mario Canseco

Seven-in-ten residents would place political parties under the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act.

Vancouver, BC [March 8, 2022] – Significant proportions of British Columbians are in favour of changing some rules pertaining to leadership races and Freedom of Information requests, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, more than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) agree with using an independent professional accounting firm to administer leadership processes in provincial political parties.

Support for this change is highest among men (68%) and British Columbians aged 55 and over (also 68%).

Most residents of the province who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (71%), the BC Liberals (66%) and the BC Green Party (54%) in the 2020 provincial election support relying on an independent professional accounting firm to administer leadership processes.

Support is not as strong when British Columbians are asked about giving Elections BC the power to administer leadership processes in provincial political parties. While a majority of the province’s residents (53%) agree with this idea, 19% disagree and 27% are undecided.

“There are some significant regional fluctuations when British Columbians ponder whether Elections BC should oversee party leadership processes,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While majorities of residents of Metro Vancouver (56%) and Vancouver Island (55%) would welcome this change, agreement is lower in the Fraser Valley (48%), Northern BC (45%) and Southern BC (43%).”

Seven-in-ten British Columbians (70%) are in favour of subjecting all political parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia to the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act (FIPPA).

Support is exactly the same (70%) for bringing all political parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia under FIPPA.

More than two thirds of British Columbians (69%) support only allowing adults to vote in party leadership elections, and not any individual aged 12 to 17, even if they are party members.

British Columbians aged 55 and over are more likely to reject the possibility of minors participating in party leadership races (80%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (63%) and aged 18-to-34 (also 63%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 12 to February 14, 2022, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

What Is Saskatchewan?

February 25, 2022February 24, 2022By Mario Canseco

Canada’s first crowdsourced poll reveals a province divided, deadlocked and potentially disengaged.

Vancouver, BC [February 25, 2022] – Last week, Saskatchewan residents, hungry for a new way to inform themselves about their government, community and province, crowdsourced Vancouver’s Research Co. to conduct a poll on their behalf.

The answer to the question “What is Saskatchewan?”, however, remains fairly elusive.

An online study conducted from February 19 to February 23, 2022, among a representative sample of 808 adults in Saskatchewan, with a focus on the present and future of the province’s politics, COVID-19 pandemic response and economic conditions, revealed consensus opinion on very little.

For example, one of the most consistent answers, 1 in 4, was “Not sure”, in response to questions on the necessity of new or rebranded political parties to replace the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Saskatchewan Party. More than a third of residents (37%) agreed with the statement that “neither of the two major political parties in Saskatchewan truly represent my views.”

“While support for the Saskatchewan Party amongst all voters remains strong, a significant number of residents feel disengaged when it comes to Saskatchewan’s political future,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Premier Scott Moe’s approval rating stands at 50%, yet 54% of residents agree that his government is not doing enough to deal with the suicide crisis in northern Saskatchewan.”

Tammy Nicklas-Robert, a Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based researcher and communications’ consultant, used the GoFundMe platform to crowdsource the Research Co. study as one potential solution to what she sees as mounting frustration in her province due to a collective sense of isolation and powerlessness.

“When I first floated the idea on social media, I was overwhelmed by the volume and intensity of the response,” says Nicklas-Robert. “What I heard is after two years of the pandemic, Saskatchewan people are feeling isolated, disheartened by what they perceive to be a lack of trustworthy data and facts related to their province’s social, economic and political reality, but also ready to reconnect with like-minded collectives.”

She points to the result on mask-wearing in Saskatchewan after the mandate drops as evidence that those collectives will emerge. More than three-in-five Saskatchewanians (63%) say they plan to continue wearing a mask or face covering when entering businesses and public venues, even if this is no longer a requirement.

“When we know how much anger can be triggered in others when they see someone wearing a medical mask, even during a pandemic, those who plan to continue to wear one in public after February 28 will hopefully find some comfort in knowing that they are well within the majority planning to do the same,” she continued.

More highlights from this study:

COVID-19

A majority of Saskatchewan residents (58%) consider COVID-19 as a real threat to them and their family’s health and safety. More than a third (36%) think COVID-19 is not a real threat.

Most of the province’s residents (53%) are satisfied with the way their municipal government has dealt with COVID-19. The rating is lower for the Saskatchewan government (48%) and the federal Liberal government (37%).

While a majority of Saskatchewanians trust their provincial government to respond to a natural disaster (57%), the trust-level drops on all other issues tested, such as managing the provincial budget (49%), ensuring the sustainability of the health care system (46%) and collaborating with public health and medical professionals to establish health guidelines and restrictions (44%).

Just over two-in-five residents trust their provincial government to release accurate (43%) and complete (41%) information about COVID-19 cases and hospitalization rates to the media and the public.

More than half of Saskatchewanians (55%) agree with the provincial government’s decision to cancel “Proof of Vaccination” or negative test requirement in order to enter specific businesses and public venues, while two-in-five (40%) disagree with it.

Residents are evenly divided on the provincial government’s decision to end the indoor mask mandate on February 28 (Agree 48%, Disagree 47%).

The Economy

Residents are also evenly divided on the state of Saskatchewan’s economy, with 43% considering it “very good” or “good” and 45% deeming it “bad” or “very bad.”

One-in-four Saskatchewanians (26%) expect the provincial economy to improve over the next six months, while 43% foresee no change and one-in-five (19%) predict a decline.

Politics

Half of the province’s residents (50%) approve of Scott Moe’s performance as Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader, while two-in-five (40%) disapprove. The rating is lower for departing Saskatchewan NDP leader Ryan Meili (34%), Progressive Conservative Party leader Glen Leson (17%), Green Party leader Naomi Hunter (15%) and Liberal Party leader Jeff Walters (13%).

More than half of decided voters in the province (53%) would support the Saskatchewan Party if a provincial election were held today, with the Saskatchewan NDP a distant second with 37%. Support is in single digits for the Buffalo Party (3%), the Green Party (2%), the Progressive Conservative Party (also 2%) and the Liberal Party (1%).

Almost half of residents (47%) say they would vote for the Saskatchewan Party if Moe is no longer its leader in the next provincial election—including 86% of those who voted for the party in 2020.

A third of Saskatchewanians (34%) say they plan to vote for the NDP even with a leader other than Meili—including 84% of those who cast ballots for NDP candidates in the last provincial election.

More than three-in-ten residents believe the province needs a new centre-right political party that is not the Saskatchewan Party (33%) or a new centre-left political party that is not the NDP (32%). More than a third (37%) feel that neither of the two major parties in Saskatchewan truly represent their views.

A majority of residents (55%) believe the NDP should consider a re-brand before the next election—a proportion that rises to 61% among those who voted for the New Democrats in 2020.

Just under half of Saskatchewanians believe that the provincial government is doing enough to deal with two pending concerns: the discovery of residential school grave sites (49%) and the future of the oil and gas industry (46%).

Fewer residents think the provincial government is paying enough attention to the impact of climate change (42%), the use of prescription and non-prescription opioid drugs (30%) and the suicide crisis in northern Saskatchewan (27%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 19 to February 23, 2022, among 808 adults in Saskatchewan. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Majorities in Alberta and Ontario Would Prefer a Different Premier

December 28, 2021December 27, 2021By Mario Canseco

Since August, the proportion of Albertans who feel they would be “better off” as a country increased by 10 points to 38%.

Vancouver, BC [December 28, 2021] – As the year draws to an end, residents of Alberta and Ontario are particularly dissatisfied with their premiers, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 51% of Canadians think their province would be better off with a different head of government in charge.

Majorities of Albertans (73%, +5 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August 2021) and Ontarians (57%, +3) suggest that the state of affairs would be more satisfactory under a different premier. The proportion is lower in Quebec (42%, +4) and British Columbia (35%, +1).

Practically half of Canadians (49%, +2) believe their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa, while 36% disagree and 15% are undecided.

Criticism of the current prime minister is strongest in Alberta (65%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (56%) and British Columbia (53%), followed by Ontario (49%), Quebec (42%) and Atlantic Canada (38%).

Just under one-in-five Canadians (18%) believe their province would be better off joining the United States and becoming an American state—a proportion that rises to 25% in Alberta and 24% in Quebec.

Almost two-in-five Albertans (38%, +10) and three-in-ten Quebecers (30%, +5) believe their province would be better off as its own country.

“Separatist sentiment in Alberta is currently near the levels observed in December 2019 (40%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Across the province, 16% of residents strongly agree with the idea that they would be better off as an independent nation.”

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from December 15 to December 17, 2021, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Murphy Set for New Term in New Jersey’s Gubernatorial Election

November 1, 2021November 1, 2021By Mario Canseco

In Virginia, the race is a statistical tie between Republican Glenn Youngkin and Democrat Terry McAuliffe.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2021] – The Democratic Party stands to win one of the gubernatorial elections that will take place tomorrow in the United States, according to two new polls conducted by Research Co. in New Jersey and Virginia.

The surveys of voters who have already cast their ballot in the elections or plan to do so tomorrow show the Democratic incumbent with a seven-point lead in the Garden State, and an extremely tight race in the Old Dominion State.

New Jersey

In the 2017 gubernatorial election, Democratic Party candidate Phil Murphy defeated Republican Party contender Kim Guadagno in the Garden State with 56% of all cast ballots.

Murphy—who is seeking a new term in office—heads to tomorrow’s election with the backing of 53% of decided voters in New Jersey. Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli is second with 46%.

Murphy is supported by 88% of Garden State voters who cast a ballot for Joe Biden in last year’s United States presidential election. Ciattarelli is holding on to 91% of New Jersey voters who backed Donald Trump in 2020.

Virginia

Democratic Party candidate Ralph Northam won the 2017 gubernatorial election in the Old Dominion State with 54% of the vote, defeating Republican Party contender Ed Gillespie. Virginia does not allow incumbent governors to serve consecutive terms.

Tomorrow’s election is a statistical tie, with 49% of decided voters supporting Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin and 48% backing Democratic contender Terry McAuliffe. In addition, 2% of decided voters would support Princess Blanding of the Liberation Party.

McAuliffe served as Virginia’s Governor from 2014 to 2018, winning the 2013 election with 48% of the vote.

Methodology:

Results are based on online studies conducted on October 31 and November 1, 2021, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in two American states: New Jersey and Virginia. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Party Platforms Were Most Influential with Canadian Voters

October 1, 2021September 30, 2021By Mario Canseco

Almost two-in-five voters say the most important factor behind their selection is a party’s ideas and policies.

Vancouver, BC [October 1, 2021] – Canadians who cast a ballot in the 44th federal election say that the party platforms were particularly important in helping them choose which candidate to support, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who voted in this year’s federal election, 59% say that party platforms were “very influential” or “moderately influential” in their decision to support a party.

Practically three-in-four Canadians who voted for the People’s Party in this month’s federal election (74%) cite the platform as a major influence. Sizeable majorities of Canadians who supported the Conservative Party (67%), the Liberal Party (64%) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 64%) feel the same way, along with 39% of Green Party supporters and 19% of Bloc Québécois supporters.

More than two-in-five Canadian voters believe discussions with family (42%) and discussions with friends (also 42%) influenced their vote in the last election, while 35% mention campaign ads on radio and television.

While interaction with candidates on social media was an influencer for 30% of Canadian voters, the proportion rises to 43% among those aged 18-to-34. A similar scenario ensues on the issue of interactions with other people on social media. One-in-four Canadian voters (26%)—and 44% of those aged 18-to-34—say these exchanges influenced their vote.

The survey also asked Canadian voters about the effect of seven different endorsements. More than one-in-four (27%) say they were influenced by the endorsement of U.S. President Barack Obama, including 42% of Liberal Party supporters.

The level of influence was lower for all other endorsements, including those originating from non-governmental organizations (25%), newspapers (24%), trade associations (23%), unions (21%) former U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton (18%, and 27% for Liberal voters) and current U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (17%, and 25% for NDP voters).

When Canadians are asked about their main motivation for supporting a party, almost two-in-five (39%) mention its ideas and policies, while one-in-four (26%) say it is the party leader.

Fewer Canadians are primarily moved by a desire for change (12%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%), a desire for stability (9%) or disgust with other candidates (7%).

“More than three-in-ten Canadians who voted for the Liberals and the Bloc (32% and 31% respectively) say the most important factor behind their choice was the party leaders,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower among those who cast ballots for the Conservatives (25%), the New Democrats (also 25%), the People’s Party (21%) and the Greens (10%).”

Canadians who voted for the People’s Party were more likely to say that their main motivation was disgust with other candidates (14%).

When asked to ponder what this federal election would have looked like with different leaders, just under three-in-ten Canadians (29%) admit they would have voted for the Conservative Party with Peter MacKay as leader or for the Liberal Party with Chrystia Freeland as leader. Fewer Canadian voters (22%) would have supported the Liberals with Mark Carney as leader.

In the “exit poll”, a majority of Canadians (52%) say they would be “very upset” if the Liberal Party forms the government again in Canada. A slightly lower proportion (48%) would feel the same way if the Conservative Party forms the government.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 18 to September 21, 2021, among 1,900 adults in Canada who voted in the 2021 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.3 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca