Vancouver – Research Co.

Deadlock As Voters in Vancouver Prepare for Municipal Election

October 14, 2022October 16, 2022By Mario Canseco

Housing (43%, up eight points) remains the most important issue for likely voters in the city, followed by crime (14%, up five points).

Vancouver, BC [October 14, 2022] – The outcome of the mayoral election in Vancouver is uncertain, with the two main contenders tied and about one-in-seven likely voters still undecided about who they will support tomorrow, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Vancouver finds both incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Together and challenger Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC) garnering the support of 33% of decided voters. The numbers represent a two-point drop for Stewart and a three-point gain for Sim since a Research Co. survey conducted in early September.

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver remains in third place with 16% (-1), followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 8% (-5) and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) also with 8% (+4). Two per cent of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for one of the other ten mayoral candidates.

Among male decided voters, Stewart has a three-point edge over Sim (37% to 34%). The race is closer among female voters, with Sim one point ahead of Stewart (31% to 30%), and Hardwick at 21%.

Stewart is the top choice for voters on both the East side of Vancouver (37%) and Downtown (35%), while Sim holds the upper hand on the West side (35%).

Among likely voters who own their primary residence, Sim has a five-point lead over Stewart (38% to 33%), while Stewart is ahead of Sim among likely voters who rent their primary residence (33% to 25%).

“On the eve of the election, 14% of likely voters in Vancouver are still undecided about which mayoral candidate to back,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion of undecided voters is higher among women (17%), likely voters aged 35-to-54 (17%), residents of the West Side (16%) and renters (18%).”

More than two-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (43%, +8) identify housing is the most important issue facing the city—a proportion that rises to 47% among women and to 49% among likely voters aged 55 and over.

Crime is second on the list of pressing concerns for likely voters in Vancouver at 14% (+5), followed by property taxes (10%, +1), poverty (8%, -1) and drug overdoses (8%, -6).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 13 and October 14, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver, including 344 decided voters in the 2022 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 5.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Stewart and Sim Are Frontrunners in Vancouver Mayoral Election

September 8, 2022September 8, 2022By Mario Canseco

More than a third of likely voters believe housing is the most important issue facing the city right now.

Vancouver, BC [September 8, 2022] – Four mayoral candidates are in double-digits as voters in Vancouver ponder their choices in next month’s election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 35% of decided voters in the City of Vancouver would support incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Vancouver, while 30% would cast their ballot for Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC).

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver is in third place with 17 per cent, followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 13% and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) with 4%.

More than a third of likely voters in Vancouver (35%) say housing is the most important issue facing the city, followed by drug overdoses (14%), crime (9%), poverty (also 9%) and property taxes (also 9%).

“Concerns about housing are particularly high among women (42%) and likely voters aged 35-to-54 (39%) in the City of Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Drug overdoses are a more prevalent topic among likely voters who reside Downtown (19%) than among their counterparts who live on the West Side (13%) or the East Side (11%).”

Two thirds of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (67%) have followed the municipal electoral campaign “very closely” or “moderately closely.”

Over the past two months, a majority of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (52%) have seen, read or heard media stories where mayoral or council candidates discussed their position on issues. Almost three-in-ten (29%) have visited the website of a mayoral or council candidate.

While 16% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver have interacted with a mayoral or council candidate on social media (such as following on Twitter or liking on Facebook), the proportion rises to 25% among those aged 18-to-34.

Just over two thirds of likely voters in Vancouver (68%) support the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education”, which raises awareness of and welcomes students of all sexual orientations, gender identities and family structures.

In national survey conducted by Research Co. in July 2019, 62% of Canadians supported the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education” in their province.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 3 to September 5, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Almost Three-in-Five Vancouver Voters Want a Ward System

June 21, 2022June 21, 2022By Mario Canseco

Majorities also support establishing tougher guidelines for residents who want to become candidates for public office.

Vancouver, BC [June 21, 2022] – More voters in the City of Vancouver are in favour of changing the way they elect their councillors, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 58% of likely voters in the City of Vancouver (+6 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in November 2020) would move to a “ward system” (where councillors can be elected in specific constituencies) and abandon the currently used “at-large system” (where voters select 10 councillors).

Support for the implementation of a “ward system” in Vancouver is high among likely voters who reside in the East Side (57%), the West Side (58%) and Downtown (60%).

Majorities of voters who cast ballots for Kennedy Stewart (66%), Ken Sim (63%) or Shauna Sylvester (56%) in the 2018 Vancouver mayoral election are in favour of a “ward system.”

In order to run for office in the City of Vancouver, candidates are currently required to present the signatures of 25 nominators. More than three-in-five likely voters (62%, +2) believe this number should be raised to 100 signatures in future elections.

“Voters of all ages believe it is time to raise the bar for aspiring municipal politicians in Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of likely voters aged 18-to-34 (60%), aged 35-to-54 (62%) and aged 55 and over (65%) believe candidates must secure at least 100 signatures if they want their name to appear on the ballot.”

In addition, candidates who wish to run for office in the City of Vancouver are currently required to pay a $100 deposit, which is refunded after the election. More than half of likely voters (54%, -1) think this number should be raised to $500 in future elections.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 7 to June 9, 2022, among 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca