Elections – Research Co.

Metro Vancouver Governments Score High on Some Key Services

December 1, 2025December 2, 2025By Mario Canseco

Satisfaction is lowest on public safety, resident engagement and dealing with homelessness and poverty.

Vancouver, BC [December 1, 2025] – Most residents of Metro Vancouver think their municipal administrations are managing eight issues properly, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative regional sample, at least three-in-five Metro Vancouverites say their municipal government has done a “very good” or “good” job managing parks and recreation facilities (68%), providing good sanitation services (66%) and fostering artistic and cultural activities (60%).

Five other issues get a positive review from more than half of Metro Vancouverites: protecting the environment (58%), promoting tourism (56%), dealing with transportation (55%), managing development and growth (53%) and enhancing the quality of life of residents (51%).

The satisfaction rating is lower for five other competencies: making City Hall work in a transparent and unbiased fashion (47%), handling finances (46%), dealing with crime and public safety (45%), engaging with residents (also 45%) and dealing with homelessness and poverty (32%).

More than half of Metro Vancouverites (57%) approve of the performance of the mayor of their municipality, while a third (33%) disapprove and 11% are undecided.

“Across Metro Vancouver, approval for mayors is high among men (62%) and residents aged 18-to-34 (64%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among women (55%) and residents aged 55 and over (51%).”

On a regional basis, the approval rating for mayors is highest in Burnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities (69%), followed by Vancouver (58%), Surrey and White Rock (also 58%), four municipalities in the Fraser Valley (57%), five municipalities in the North Shore (48%) and Richmond and Delta (46%).

Municipal elections in British Columbia use the “at-large system” for elections to council. This means that councillors are elected to represent the entire municipality and not a specific portion of it.

Just over three-in-five Metro Vancouverites (61%) are satisfied with the “at-large system” for elections to council. Residents of Burnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities, Surrey and White Rock, and the four Fraser Valley municipalities are more likely to be satisfied with the “at-large system” (all at 62%) than those in Vancouver (59%), the North Shore (57%) and Richmond and Delta (48%).

Respondents were also asked about changing existing guidelines to adopt different systems for council elections.

More than half of respondents (55%) support relying on the “single transferable vote system”, in which votes are initially allocated to a voter’s most preferred candidate, and as the count proceeds and candidates are either elected or eliminated, it is transferred to other candidates in accordance with the voter’s stated preferences.

Opposition to the “single transferable vote system” is highest among Metro Vancouverites aged 55 and over (34%) and North Shore residents (41%).

Just over three-in-five Metro Vancouverites (61%) support adopting the “ward system”, in which councillors are elected to represent a specific portion or neighbourhood in a municipality.

A move to the “ward system” is particularly popular in Surrey and White Rock (66%) and Vancouver (64%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2025, among 1,501 adults in Metro Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Metro Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Assess Options for BC Conservatives

November 13, 2025November 12, 2025By Mario Canseco

Dianne Watts, Christy Clark, Gavin Dew, Elenore Sturko and Aaron Gunn do best in test of 15 possible leadership contenders.

Vancouver, BC [November 13, 2025] – Five politicians would allow the Conservative Party of BC to provide a serious challenge to the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) in a British Columbia provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In early October, the BC NDP held a six-point advantage over the BC Conservatives among decided voters in British Columbia

The early November online survey of a representative provincial sample asked British Columbians how they would vote in an election with 15 different options leading the Conservative Party of BC.

With former Surrey Mayor and MP Dianne Watts as leader, the BC Conservatives would be tied with the BC NDP at 21% among all voters.

The official opposition would trail the governing party by just one point under the leadership of former premier Christy Clark (26% to 25%) or current Kelowna-Mission MLA Gavin Dew (20% to 19%).

The BC Conservatives would be two points behind the BC New Democrats under two other leaders: Surrey-Cloverdale MLA Elenore Sturko (23% to 21%) and North Island—Powell River MP Aaron Gunn (20% to 18%).

The BC NDP would have four-point leads over the BC Conservatives under the leadership of Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West (25% to 21%) or former Transportation Minister Todd Stone (20% to 16%).

The BC Conservatives would trail the BC New Democrats by five points under former BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson (23% to 18%), current MP Ellis Ross (21% to 16%) and former BC United West Vancouver-Capilano candidate Caroline Elliott (23% to 18%).

The lead for the BC NDP is larger if the BC Conservatives are commanded by Kamloops Centre MLA Peter Milobar (24% to 18%), 2024 West Vancouver-Sea to Sky candidate Yuri Fulmer (25% to 19%) and former MP and federal cabinet minister James Moore (24% to 16%).

The two worst performing prospective candidates tested are Bryan Breguet, who ran unsuccessfully for the BC Conservatives in Vancouver-Langara in 2024 (23% to 14%), and Langley-Abbotsford MLA Harman Bhangu (25% to 14%).

More than a third of British Columbians (36%, +3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2024) place themselves at the centre of the political spectrum. Fewer residents of the province say they are centre right, right or extreme right (28%, -2) or centre left, left or extreme left (21%, -1).

When asked about the province’s political parties, more than half of British Columbians (53%, +1) say the BC NDP is centre left, left or extreme left, while almost two thirds (64%, +3) consider the BC Conservatives as centre right, right or extreme right.

The BC Green Party is regarded as centre left, left or extreme left by 45% of British Columbians (+2). CentreBC is placed in the middle of the spectrum by a third of the province’s residents (with 39% saying they are not sure), while OneBC is regarded as centre right, right or extreme right by 23% of British Columbians (with 49% saying they are not sure).

The five party leaders yielded results that mirrored the parties they represent. BC Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby is considered centre left, left or extreme left by just over half of British Columbians (51%, +3), while 62% (+4) say BC Conservative leader John Rustad is centre right, right or extreme right.

BC Green leader Emily Lowan is regarded as centre left, left or extreme left by 42% of British Columbians. One-in-four of the province’s residents (25%) say Centre BC leader Karin Kirkpatrick is a centrist, while 19% believe Dallas Brodie of OneBC is centre right, right or extreme right. Sizeable proportions of British Columbians do not know enough about Kirkpatrick (48%) or Brodie (51%) to place them on the spectrum.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 24 to October 26, 2025, among 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Spanberger Clearly Ahead in Virginia’s Gubernatorial Election

November 3, 2025November 3, 2025By Mario Canseco

In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

Vancouver, BC [November 3, 2025] – The candidates for the Democratic Party head to tomorrow’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey in different circumstances, according to two new polls conducted by Research Co. in Virginia and New Jersey.

The surveys of voters who have already cast their ballot in the elections or plan to do so tomorrow show a significant advantage for the Democrats in the Old Dominion State, and a closer race in the Garden State.

Virginia

Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the 2021 gubernatorial race in Virginia (51% to 49%). The Old Dominion State does not allow incumbent governors to serve consecutive terms.

More than half of decided voters in Virginia (54%) would back Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger in this year’s gubernatorial election, while 46% would cast a ballot for Republican contender Winsome Earle-Sears.

Earle-Sears has her best showing among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (53% to 47%), while Spanberger is ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (58% to 42%) and aged 55 and over (55% to 45%).

About one-in-six decided voters who supported the GOP’s Youngkin in 2021 (15%) are backing Spanberger in 2025.

New Jersey

In the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election, incumbent Democratic Party governor Phil Murphy defeated Republican Party candidate Jack Ciattarelli (51% to 48%). The Garden State has a two consecutive term limit for governors.

The 2025 gubernatorial race in New Jersey is very similar to the previous one, with Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill holding a three-point edge over Republican Ciattarelli among decided voters (51% to 48%), with 1% going to Libertarian candidate Vic Kaplan.

Ciattarelli does particularly well with decided voters aged 55 and over (57% to 43%), while Sherrill holds the upper hand with decided voters aged 35-to-54 (52% to 46%) and aged 18-to-34 (58% to 41%).

More than half of decided voters who are Independent (54%) would support Sherrill tomorrow, while 43% would back Ciattarelli and 3% would support Kaplan.

Methodology: Results are based on online studies conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2025, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in two American states: New Jersey and Virginia. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

NDP Leads, Conservatives Drop, Greens Gain in British Columbia

October 6, 2025October 5, 2025By Mario Canseco

David Eby has a 16-point lead over John Rustad when British Columbians ponder who would make the “Best Premier”.

Vancouver, BC [October 6, 2025] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is ahead of all challengers in British Columbia’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June.

The Conservative Party of BC is in second place with 38% (-4), followed by the BC Green Party with 12% (+4), Centre BC with 3% (+1) and OneBC with 1%.

The BC New Democrats hold a sizeable lead over the BC Conservatives among decided voters aged 55 and over (54% to 35%). The race is closer among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (BC Conservatives 40%, BC NDP 38%) and is tied among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (40% for each party).

On a regional basis, the BC Conservatives are leading in Northern BC (52%) and the Fraser Valley (52%), while the BC NDP is first in Vancouver Island (51%), Southern BC (50%) and Metro Vancouver (44%),

“The BC NDP is holding on to 86% of the voters who supported them in the October 2024 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is lower for the BC Conservatives (78%) and the BC Greens (74%).”

Practically three-in-five British Columbians (59%, +5) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the BC NDP in the next provincial ballot. Fewer of the province’s residents are actively considering casting a ballot for the BC Conservatives (45%, -2), the BC Greens (43%, +6), Centre BC (28%, +9) and OneBC (25%).

This month, 53% of British Columbias (-3) approve of the performance of David Eby as Premier and leader of the BC NDP. The rating is lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad (37%, =) BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan (34%), Centre BC leader Karin Kirkpatrick (27%, +11) and OneBC leader Dallas Brodie (26%).

On the “Best Premier” question, Eby holds a 16-point lead over Rustad (37% to 21%), with Lowan at 12%, Kirkpatrick at 4% and Brodie at 2%. Almost one-in-four British Columbians (24%) are undecided.

Three-in-ten British Columbians (30%, -4) say housing, poverty and homelessness is the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs (23%, +1), health care (23%, +2), crime and public safety (5%, -1), the environment (6%, +3) and accountability (4%, =).

When asked which of the main party leaders is better suited to handle specific issues, Eby is ahead of Rustad on seven of them: education (44% to 26%), the environment (43% to 24%), health care (41% to 28%), housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 28%), energy (40% to 29%), the economy and jobs (38% to 31%) and accountability (37% to 30%).

The two leaders are tied on who would be best to manage crime and public safety (34% each).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 1 to October 3, 2025, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Liberal Lead Shrinks as Canadians Refocus on Domestic Issues

September 15, 2025September 14, 2025By Mario Canseco

Finances and housing push Canada-U.S. Relations to third place on the list of national concerns.

Vancouver, BC [September 15, 2025] – Support for the governing Liberal Party is not as strong across Canada as it was during the summer, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 43% of decided voters would support the Liberal candidate in their riding, down four points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in July.

The Conservative Party is second with 38% (+1), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 8% (+2), the Bloc Québécois with 6% (=), the Green Party with 2% (=), the People’s Party with 1% (=) and other parties and independent candidates also with 1% (=).

The Liberals remain ahead of the Conservatives in British Columbia (49% to 36%) and Ontario (48% to 39%). The two parties are now in a statistical tie in Atlantic Canada (39% to 37%).

The Conservatives hold massive leads over the Liberals in Alberta (56% to 32%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (55% to 34%). In Quebec, the Liberals are in first place with 43%, followed by the Bloc with 28% and the Conservatives with 23%.

Male decided voters are almost evenly split between the Liberals and the Conservatives (41% to 40%), while female decided voters prefer the governing party over the official opposition (45% to 36%).

The Liberals are the top choice of decided voters who are members of Generation Z (46%) and Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (52%). The Conservatives hold the upper hand among Generation X (46%) and Millennials (44%).

Practically one-in-four Canadians (24%, +3) regard the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the country, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (22%, +4), Canada-U.S. Relations (17%, -5), health care (11%, -2) and immigration (10%, -1).

“Canadians aged 55 and over are still primarily concerned about Canada-U.S. Relations (26%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Those aged 35-to-54 are more likely to be focused on the economy and jobs (26%), while those aged 18-to-34 are mainly preoccupied with housing (27%).”

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney fell by five points, from 61% in July to 56% this month. The results on this question remain lower for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (47%, +3), Green leader Elizabeth May (33%, -1), interim NDP leader Don Davies (28%, +2), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (26%, -2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (22%, +1).

Carney holds a 13-point advantage over Poilievre on the “Preferred Prime Minister” question (44% to 31%), with the remaining party leaders in single digits.

When asked which of the two main party leaders would be the best to handle 11 different issues, Carney remains ahead of Poilievre on eight of them: foreign affairs (49% to 30%), Canada-U.S. Relations (47% to 31%), accountability and leadership (46% to 31%), national unity (44% to 28%), the economy and jobs (44% to 35%), health care (42% to 32%), the environment (41% to 25%) and energy and pipelines (39% to 34%).

Poilievre leads Carney as the best person to manage crime and public safety (39% to 35%). The two leaders are practically tied on two other issues: housing, homelessness and poverty (Carney 37%, Poilievre 35%) and immigration (Poilievre 38%, Carney 37%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 10 to September 12, 2025, among 1,003 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Back Mandatory Voting and Spring Ballots

July 24, 2025July 23, 2025By Mario Canseco

Only 37% of the province’s adult residents would grant voting rights to individuals who are 16 and 17 years old.

Vancouver, BC [July 24, 2025] – While most British Columbians would welcome specific changes to provincial electoral processes, the level of support for relying on a different system to elect the members of the Legislative Assembly is low, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, more than three-in-four British Columbians (77%) say it should be mandatory for candidates to attend at least one public debate in their riding with the candidates from other parties.

More than half of British Columbians are in favour of three other ideas: making voting mandatory in all BC provincial elections (61%), holding provincial elections in May (56%) and declaring provincial election day a public holiday (54%).

British Columbians elect the members of the Legislative Assembly through a system called First-Past-The-Post, where a candidate wins a constituency by receiving more votes than any others.

Almost two thirds of British Columbians (65%) say they are satisfied with the First-Past-The-Post electoral system, while 21% are dissatisfied and 13% are not sure.

Dissatisfaction with First-Past-The-Post is highest on Vancouver Island (29%), followed by Southern BC (24%), the Fraser Valley (also 24%) Metro Vancouver (20%) and Northern BC (15%).

The survey also asked British Columbians if they would like to see the implementation of three distinct electoral systems for provincial elections.

Almost half of British Columbians (47%) would like to elect all members of the Legislative Assembly through Party-List Proportional Representation. Public support is lower for two other systems: Single Transferable Vote system (43%) and Mixed Member Proportional Representation (40%).

Only 10% of British Columbians think people who don’t vote in provincial elections should be punished, through fines, while just under two-in-five (38%) believe those who do cast ballots in provincial elections should be rewarded, through tax incentives. Almost half of respondents (45%) think neither idea is appealing.

“Offering tax incentives to people who vote in provincial elections is an attractive idea for almost half of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (49%) and aged 35-to-54 (48%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Their counterparts aged 55 and over are decidedly more skeptical (21%).”

At this point, only Canadian citizens aged 18 and over can vote in provincial elections. More than half of British Columbians (57%) agree with allowing Permanent Residents—or individuals aged 18 and over who have been granted the right to live and work in Canada permanently, but are not yet Canadian citizens—to cast ballots in provincial elections.

Support is decidedly lower for extending voting rights to three other groups: British Columbians who would qualify as Canadian citizens under current regulations when they turn 18, but who are 16 and 17 years old (37%), Foreign Students (27%) and Temporary Workers (26%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from July 13 to July 15, 2025, among 814 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Ruling Liberals Comfortably Ahead in Canada’s Political Scene

July 7, 2025July 7, 2025By Mario Canseco

Almost half of Liberal voters in 2025 are open to a merger with the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Vancouver, BC [July 7, 2025] – The governing Liberal Party remains the top choice for voters in Canada two and a half months after the last federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of decided voters in Canada say they would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their constituency, while 37% would support the Conservative Party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois are tied for third place with 6%, followed by the Green Party with 2% the People’s Party with 1% and other parties and independent candidates also with 1%.

The Liberals hold sizeable leads over the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada (57% to 38%), Ontario (53% to 41%) and British Columbia (52% to 37%). In Quebec, the Liberals are first with 46%, followed by the Conservatives with 21% and Bloc with 19%.

The Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48% to 42%) and Alberta (53% to 36%).

Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue for Canadians (22%, -4 since the final Research Co. poll of the 2025 federal campaign completed in late April), followed by the economy and jobs (21%, +1), housing, homelessness and poverty (18%, -3), health care (13%, +2) and immigration (9%, +2).

Just over three-in-five Canadians (61%, +2) approve of the way Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney is managing his duties. The rating is lower for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (44%, -4), Green co-leader Elizabeth May (34%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (28%, -1), interim NDP leader Don Davies (26%) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (21%, -1).

On the eve of the 2025 federal election, Carney held a 10-point lead over Poilievre on the “Preferred Prime Minister” question. This month, the Liberal leader is 16 points ahead of his Conservative counterpart (47% to 31%).

“Majorities of British Columbians (56%) and Ontarians (51%) prefer Mark Carney as Canada’s prime minister,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Pierre Poilievre’s best numbers on this question are in Alberta (40%).”

At least half of Canadians believe Carney is better suited than Poilievre to handle three issues: Canada-U.S. Relations (53% to 28%), foreign affairs (52% to 28%) and national unity (50% to 26%).

The current prime minister holds double-digit leads over the Conservative leader on five other issues: the economy and jobs (49% to 33%), accountability and leadership (49% to 31%), health care (45% to 30%), the environment (43% to 27%) and energy and pipelines (42% to 34%).

Carney’s advantage over Poilievre is smaller on three issues: housing, homelessness and poverty (41% to 32%), immigration (40% to 34%) and crime and public safety (39% to 37%).

Federal NDP Leadership

The survey also asked Canadians about their views on nine possible contenders for the leadership of the federal NDP. The highest proportion of favourable mentions is for former House leader Ruth Ellen Brosseau (18%), followed by BC MP Jenny Kwan (17%), Alberta MP Heather McPherson (16%), former MP and former Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart (also 16%), former BC MLA and MP Nathan Cullen (15%), Manitoba MP Leah Gazan (also 15%), former Ontario MP candidate Tony McQuail (also 15%), BC MP Gord Johns (14%) and former BC MP candidate Avi Lewis (12%).

When asked if they would like to see each of these candidates as leaders of the federal NDP, the highest proportion of “definitely” and “probably” responses is for Kwan (22%), followed by McPherson (21%), Stewart (20%), Cullen (also 20%), Brosseau (19%), McQuail (also 19%), Johns (18%), Lewis (also 18%) and Gazan (17%).

More than a third of Canadians (37%) think the federal NDP should merge with the Liberal Party—a view shared by 47% of those who voted for the Liberals in 2025 and 43% of those who voted for the New Democrats.

Public support is lower for mergers involving the NDP and the Green Party (30%) and the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens (also 30%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 30 to July 2, 2025, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Little Change in British Columbia Politics, Even With New Parties

June 16, 2025June 13, 2025By Mario Canseco

The approval rating for David Eby is substantially higher (56%) than the numbers posted by John Rustad (37%).

Vancouver, BC [June 16, 2025] – The two most prominent political parties in British Columbia are virtually tied eight months after the last provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 43% of decided voters (down one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in March) would support the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency if an election were held today, while 42% (=) would back the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 8% (-3), followed by Centre BC with 2% and a political party featuring Dallas Brodie, Jordan Kealy and Tara Armstrong with 1%. The survey was conducted before Brodie and Armstrong announced the formation of OneBC on June 14.

The BC NDP continues to connect well with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%), while the BC Conservatives dominate among those aged 18-to-34 (49%). The two parties are virtually even among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (44% for the BC Conservatives and 43% for the BC New Democrats).

On a regional basis, the BC NDP holds the upper hand over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (47% to 41%) and Vancouver Island (43% to 34%). The BC Conservatives have extended their advantages in the Fraser Valley (53% to 34%) and Northern BC (52% to 29%). The race is tied in Southern BC (43% for each party).

The governing BC New Democrats also lead on vote consideration, with 54% of British Columbians (+1) saying they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the party in the next provincial election. The rating is lower for the BC Conservatives (47%, +2), the BC Greens (33%, -6), Centre BC (19%) and a party featuring Brodie, Kealy and Armstrong (14%).

Housing, poverty and homelessness remains the most important issue facing the province (34%, -2), followed by the economy and jobs (22%, +2), health care (21%, =), crime and public safety (6%, =), accountability (4%, +1) and the environment (3%, =).

“More than two-in-five British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (41%) and more than a third of those aged 35-to-54 (37%) are primarily concerned about housing,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than a third of British Columbians aged 55 and over (34%) select health care as the most important issue.”

More than half of British Columbians (56%, +1) approve of the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby, Satisfaction is lower with Official Opposition and Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad (37%, -3) interim BC Green Party leader Jeremy Valeriote (27%, -7) and Centre BC leader Karin Kirkpatrick (16%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from June 7 to June 9, 2025, among 803 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Some Canadians Wary of Trump’s Role in Alberta Separation

June 12, 2025June 11, 2025By Mario Canseco

Just over a third of Albertans and Quebecers would vote in favour of their province becoming its own country.

Vancouver, BC [June 12, 2025] – More than two-in-five Canadians are concerned about possible meddling from the United States if Alberta ultimately holds a referendum on sovereignty, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 45% of Canadians say it is “very likely” or “moderately likely” that the United States will take steps to annex Alberta as an American state if a referendum on Alberta becoming a sovereign country and ceasing to be a Province of Canada takes place.

Fewer Canadians believe three other scenarios are likely to materialize: the United States recognizing Alberta’s sovereignty if the referendum is successful (43%), the United States recognizing Alberta’s sovereignty even if the referendum is not successful (32%) and voters in Alberta choosing to become a sovereign country (31%).

Sizeable proportions of Canadians who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (50%), the Liberal Party (48%) or the Conservative Party (45%) in this year’s federal election believe the U.S. is likely to attempt Alberta’s annexation.

The Government of Alberta recently proposed to reduce the threshold for Citizen Initiatives. Under the new guidelines, proponents will have 120 days to gather the signatures of 10 per cent of voters who participated in the last provincial election to compel a province-wide vote on an initiative. A group has proposed holding a referendum on whether Alberta “shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a Province of Canada”.

Canadians are divided on whether the proponents of this referendum will be able to gather the signatures required in the allotted time to compel a province-wide vote on sovereignty, with 39% predicting they will reach the threshold and 44% believing they will not. In Alberta, 48% believe the signature drive will be successful, while 34% disagree.

Almost half of Canadians (47%) think the Government of Canada should not allow this referendum to happen if proponents gather the required signatures.

Support for the federal government effectively stopping the referendum on Alberta’s sovereignty is highest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (57%), followed by Ontario (53%), Atlantic Canada (52%), British Columbia (49%), Alberta (42%) and Quebec (36%).

On a separate question, 56% of Canadians say that, if voters in Alberta ultimately choose to become a sovereign country and cease to be a Province of Canada in a referendum, the Government of Canada should not allow Alberta’s separation to happen.

Majorities of Canadians aged 55 and over (68%) and aged 35-to-54 (54%) think the federal government should ultimately block Alberta’s separation. The proportion is lower among Canadians aged 18-to-34 (47%).

Only one-in-five Canadians (20%) think Canada would be better off as an American state, while 73% disagree—including 65% who “strongly disagree”.

“Practically a third of Canadians aged 18-to-34 (32%) believe Canada would be better off as an American state,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among those aged 35-to-54 (22%) and those aged 55 and over (7%).”

Slightly larger proportions of Canadians think their province would be better off as an American state (21% and rising to 25% in Alberta) or as its own country (29% and rising to 35% in both Alberta and Quebec).

When asked if they would vote in favour of Canada becoming an American state, 19% of Canadians agree while 75% disagree. The results are similar when Canadians are asked about voting in favour of their province becoming an American state (19% in favour, and 76% against).

Just under three-in-ten Canadians (28%) would vote in favour of their province becoming its own country—including 34% of Albertans and Quebecers. Two thirds of Canadians (66%) are opposed to this idea.

Just over two thirds of Canadians (67%) trust the Prime Minister of Canada to make the best decisions on issues of national unity. The rating is lower for provincial premiers (59%), the leader of the Official Opposition in Canada (51%) and provincial leaders of the Official Opposition (also 51%).

In Alberta, the four political leaders are separated by just five points on the issue of national unity: 58% for the Prime Minister, 56% for the leader of the Official Opposition in Canada, 55% for the provincial premier and 53% for the provincial leader of the Official Opposition.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from June 1 to June 3, 2025, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadian Voters Open to Changing the Electoral System

May 8, 2025May 7, 2025By Mario Canseco

Two-in-five voters in this year’s federal election (40%) think the possibility of Alberta separation is real, while 46% disagree.

Vancouver, BC [May 8, 2025] – Many voters across Canada are willing to explore modifications to the way the members of the House of Commons are chosen, a new Research Co. “Exit Poll” poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who voted in the 2025 federal election, more than half of respondents (58%) believe Canada should implement a system of proportional representation for federal elections.

“Enthusiasm about a possible move to proportional representation for federal elections is highest among Millennials (67%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The numbers drop among members of Generation X (57%), Generation Z (56%) and Baby Boomers and Silent Generation members (49%).”

Just over two thirds of Canadian voters (68%) think it should be mandatory for candidates to attend at least one public debate in their riding with the candidates from other parties.

More than three-in-five Canadian voters support two other measures: making voting mandatory in all Canadian federal elections (61%) and declaring federal Election Day a public holiday in Canada (also 61%).

Majorities of Canadian voters say their parents or guardians voted in federal (75%), provincial (70%) and municipal (59%) elections, while just over two-in-five (42%) recall talking about politics at the dinner table.

The youngest voters—Generation Z members—are more likely to recall discussions about politics at the dinner table (51%) than Millennials (43%), members of Generation X (42%) and Baby Boomers and Silent Generation members (35%).

There has been some talk about the effect a Liberal Party victory will have in provinces where most voters support the Conservative Party, particularly Alberta. Almost two-in-five Canadian voters (39%) think the possibility of Alberta separating from Canada is not real and something they would not like to see happening.

Just over one-in-four Canadian voters (26%) say the possibility of Alberta separating from Canada is real and something they would not like to see happening, while fewer believe Alberta separation is real and something they would personally welcome (14%) or not real and something they would personally welcome (7%).

In Alberta, 29% of voters would welcome separation from Canada, while 64% would not. However, more than half (58%) believe the possibility of Alberta separation is real, while 35% regard it as not real.

Canadian voters were also asked about specific activities. In the past three weeks, more than two-in-five saw, read or heard an advertisement for a federal election candidate (49%) or saw, read or heard media stories where federal election candidates discussed their position on issues (46%).

At least one-in-five Canadian voters watched or attended a debate featuring the federal party leaders (33%), read a party’s electoral platform (26%) or visited the website of a federal election candidate (20%).

Fewer Canadian voters participated in four other activities: watched or attended a debate featuring local election candidates (18%), visited the website of a federal party (17%), interacted with a federal election candidate on social media (14%) or met canvassers or candidates who knocked at their door (12%).

Over the course of the past year, at least one-in-four Canadian voters visited a local library (38%), read community newspapers (36%) or used a community centre or community pool (25%).

Fewer Canadian voters placed a bet on a sporting website (18%), used a sports field in their community (17%), placed a bet on sports with friends or family (16%), volunteered at a school (11%) or volunteered for their municipality (10%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 27 to April 29, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,201 Canadians who voted in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.8 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservative Golf Ad Missed Mark with Most Canadian Voters

May 5, 2025May 4, 2025By Mario Canseco

Liberal “This Election is Different” advertisement regarded as more “informative” and less “boring”.

Vancouver, BC [May 5, 2025] – A side-by-side test of two political advertisements from the main federal parties in Canada yields mixed results, a new Research Co. “Exit Poll” poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample of English-speaking Canadians who voted in the 2025 federal election showed respondents two advertisements that were featured on broadcast television in the final days of the campaign: “We can’t afford fore more years” from the Conservative Party, and “This election is different” from the Liberal Party.

Conservative Advertisement

“We can’t afford fore more years”

Just under two-in-five Canadian voters (39%) say they had seen this political advertisement before taking the survey—a proportion that rises to 55% among members of the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers and to 54% among residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

When asked if this ad makes them want to vote for the Conservative Party, Canadian voters are almost evenly split (Agree 47%, Disagree 46%). Agreement is highest among Millennials (55%), followed by members of Generation Z (50%), Generation X (44%) and Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (40%).

More than half of Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (56%) say the ad does not make them want to vote for the Conservatives—including 47% who feel “strongly” about this.

Canadian voters in the highest income bracket are more likely to say the ad makes them want to support Conservative candidates (53%) than their counterparts in the middle and lowest income brackets (46% and 45% respectively).

The results are similar when Canadian voters are asked if the Conservative ad makes them want to vote for the Liberal Party (Agree 46%, Disagree 47%).

Two-in-five Canadian voters (40%) say the ad makes them feel more negative about the Liberal Party, while a slightly larger proportion (42%) say it makes them feel more negative about the Conservatives.

Overall, just over half of Canadian voters (51%) feel the Conservative ad is “informative”, while more than two-in-five (44%) consider it “boring”.

The advertisement is regarded as boring by similar proportions of Canadian voters who belong to the Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (45%), Generation X (44%), Millennials (also 44%) and Generation Z (43%).

Canadian voters who reside in Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan and Manitoba are more likely to say the ad made them feel more negative about the Conservative Party (53% each) than those in Quebec (44%), Ontario (40%), British Columbia (38%) and Alberta (26%).

Liberal Advertisement

“This election is different”

More than a third of Canadian voters (35%) saw this ad before taking our survey, including 43% of Silent Generation / Baby Boomers and 45% of residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

More than half of Canadian voters (56%) say this ad makes them more likely to vote for the Liberals, while 38% disagree. Agreement is highest among members of Generation Z (61%), followed by Millennials (55%), Generation X (54%) and Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (also 54%).

Just over half of Canadian voters in Alberta (51%) say the ad does not make them want to support Liberal candidates, along with 46% of those who live in Ontario.

Canadian voters in the middle income bracket are slightly more likely to say the ad makes them want to vote Liberal (58%) than their counterparts in the highest and lowest income brackets (57% and 53% respectively).

Only 38% of Canadian voters say this ad makes them want to vote for the Conservatives—a proportion that rises to 53% in Alberta.

About a third of Canadian voters (32%) say this advertisement makes them feel more negative about the Liberals, while the same proportion (32%) say it makes them feel more negative about the Conservative Party.

Overall, more than three-in-five Canadian voters (63%) believe the Liberal ad is “informative”, while fewer than two-in-five (38%) deem it “boring”.

Millennials are more likely to say the Liberal ad is boring (44%) than Canadian voters who belong to Generation X (39%), Generation Z (34%) and Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (30%),

Canadian voters who reside in Alberta and Ontario are more likely to say the ad made them feel more negative about the Liberal Party (38% and 37% respectively) than those in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (33%), Quebec (28%), Atlantic Canada (27%) and British Columbia (26%).

“There is not much of a gender gap when Canadian voters assess the effect of the Liberal ad, with 57% of women and 54% of men saying it made them more likely to vote for the party,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While the Conservative ad achieved the same purpose with 51% of men, only 44% of women react the same way.”

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 27 to April 29, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,034 English-speaking Canadians who voted in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Split on Preferred Result of 2025 Federal Ballot

April 29, 2025April 29, 2025By Mario Canseco

Similar proportions of Canadians would be “very upset” with the Conservatives (49%) or Liberals (46%) forming the government.

Vancouver, BC [April 29, 2025] – Canadian voters are deeply divided when assessing the possible outcome of the 2025 federal election, a new Research Co. “Exit Poll” poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who voted in the 2025 federal election, 49% of respondents say they would be “very upset” if the Conservative Party forms the government, while a slightly smaller proportion (46%) feel the same way about Liberal Party.

“Animosity towards a federal Liberal government reaches 53% among Millennial voters in Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “At least half of voters who belong to Generation X (50%), Generation Z (53%) and Silent Generation and Baby Boomers (51%) would be upset with a Conservative government.”

More than half of Canadian voters describe the campaigns of the Liberals (59%) and Conservatives (51%) as “very positive” or “moderately positive”. The numbers are lower for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (44%), the Green Party (33%), the Bloc Québécois (31%, rising to 51% in Quebec) and the People’s Party (25%).

Just over half of Canadian voters (51%) think Pierre Poilievre should resign as leader of the Conservative Party if he fails to form the government. While this course of action is favoured by 70% of Liberal voters, only 29% of Conservative voters concur.

More than two-in-five Canadian voters (41%) believe Mark Carney should resign as leader of the Liberal Party if he is unable to assemble a government. While 25% of Liberal voters agree with this statement, the proportion rises to 62% among Conservative voters.

When asked what their main motivation was for supporting a party in 2025, similar proportions of Canadian voters cite its ideas and policies (34%) and its leader (33%). Fewer were primarily moved by a desire for change (12%), a desire for stability (9%), the party’s candidate in the riding (also 9%) or disgust with other contending candidates (3%).

Liberal voters are significantly more likely to have cast a ballot primarily for the party’s leader (40%) than those who supported the Conservatives (30%) or the New Democrats (24%). Conversely, almost half of NDP supporters (46%) say they were chiefly motivated by ideas and policies, compared to 33% among Conservatives and 30% among Liberals.

Just under a third of Canadian voters (32%) say they would have supported the Liberals if Justin Trudeau was their leader, including 54% of those who supported the party in the 2025 election. A similar proportion of Canadian voters (30%) would have backed the Liberals with Chrystia Freeland as leader.

More than a third of Canadian voters (37%) say they would have voted for the Conservatives this year if Stephen Harper was their leader—a proportion that rises to 62% among 2025 Conservative voters. Just over one-in-four Canadian voters (26%) would have backed the Conservatives with Jean Charest as their leader, while a similar proportion (24%) would have voted for the party under Maxime Bernier.

At least three-in-five Canadian voters get their news and information related to federal politics through television news (68%) and the internet and digital media (60%). Fewer mention family (38%), friends (33%) newspapers (31%) or radio news (30%).

Television news is the overwhelming leader in providing information to Canadian voters who are members of the Silent Generation or Baby Boomers (82%), while digital media is preferred by Millennials (66%) and members of Generation Z (64%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

No Major Shifts Seen in Final Week of Canada’s Federal Election

April 27, 2025April 27, 2025By Mario Canseco

Likely voters who are Millennials or Generation Z members are more concerned about housing than their older counterparts.

Vancouver, BC [April 27, 2025] – The Liberal Party heads to tomorrow’s federal election in Canada as the frontrunner, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters and Canadians who have already cast their ballot in the advance polls, 44% of decided voters favour the Liberals (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-April) while 39% (+1) back the Conservative Party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in third place with 7% (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 6% (=), the Green Party with 2% (=) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada (57% to 39%), Ontario (47% to 41%) and British Columbia (44% to 41%). In Quebec, the Liberals are first with 43%, followed by the Bloc with 24% and the Conservatives with 23%.

The Conservatives hold sizeable leads over the Liberals in Alberta (60% to 31%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51% to 37%).

When the vote is analyzed by generation, the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives among:

Voters who are members of the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers, or those born in 1964 or before (47% to 38%).
Voters who are members of Generation X, or those born from 1965 to 1980 (42% to 38%).
Voters who are members of Generation Z, or those born in 1997 or after (45% to 36%).

The two parties are tied among Millennials, or those born from 1981 to 1996 (Liberals 41%, Conservatives 41%).

The NDP is only holding on to 39% of its voters from the 2021 election, with 37% saying the intend to vote for the Liberals this time. The retention rate is superior for the Conservatives (89%) and the Liberals (79%).

Only 12% of decided voters say they may change their mind and support a different party tomorrow—a proportion that rises to 17% among those aged 18-to-34.

As was the case during the entire campaign, Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue for likely voters (26%, -2), followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (21%, -2), the economy and jobs (20%, +1), health care (11%, +2), immigration (7%, -1) and crime and public safety (3%, -1).

“One-in-four Millennial (25%) and Gen. Z (26%) likely voters say housing, homelessness and poverty is their greatest concern,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Canada-U.S. Relations is the top issue for Gen. X (29%) and Baby Boomers and Silent Generation members (32%).”

There was little fluctuation in the approval ratings of the three main party leaders compared to mid-April, with Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney at 59% (=), Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre at 48% (+1) and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh at 43% (-1). The numbers remain lower for Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (29%, +1), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (24%, -3) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (22%, +1).

Carney maintains a 10-point advantage over Poilievre on the Preferred Prime Minister question (45% to 35%), with the remaining contenders in single digits.

Millennial likely voters are evenly split when assessing which one of the two main party leaders would make the best head of government for Canada (Carney 39%, Poilievre 39%). The Liberal leader is ahead of his Conservative rival among Gen. Z. (48% to 31%), Gen. X (43% to 33%) and Silent Generation / Baby Boomers (52% to 35%).

Bernier posts the worst momentum score of all federal party leaders at -19 (only 6% of likely voters say their opinion of the People’s Party leader has improved since the start of the campaign, while 25% say it has worsened). Carney is the only leader to finish the campaign with a positive momentum score (+9), while the perceptions are negative for Poilievre (-8), Blanchet (-12), Pedneault (-15) and Singh (-18).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on April 26 and April 27, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,050 likely voters in Canada, including 1,019 decided voters and Canadians who have already cast their ballot in the advance polls in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.1 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Five-Point Lead for Liberals as Canadian Federal Vote Looms

April 21, 2025April 27, 2025By Mario Canseco

Canada-U.S. Relations remains the most important issue for likely voters across the country.

Vancouver, BC [April 21, 2025] – More than four-in-five decided voters in Canada are supporting either of the two main parties with a week left in the federal campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 43% of decided voters would back the Liberal Party (-1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early April), while 38% (+2) would support the Conservative Party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains a distant third with 8% (=), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 6% (+1), the Green Party with 2% (-1) and the People’s Party with 1% (-1).

The Conservatives have made significant gains in Alberta (65%) and are three points behind the Liberals in British Columbia (41% to 44%). The Liberals are still leading in Ontario (46% to 40%) and Quebec (46% with the Bloc in second place at 23%).

While sizeable majorities of decided voters who supported either the Conservatives or the Liberals in 2021 are staying with their respective parties (88% and 80% respectively), only 39% of NDP voters in the last federal election intend to back the New Democrats this year.

More than a quarter of likely voters (28%, -3) identify Canada-U.S. Relations as the most important issue facing the country, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (20%, +2), the economy and jobs (19%, =), health care (9%, -2), immigration (8%, +3) and crime and public safety (4%, +2).

“More than four-in-five decided voters across Canada (82%) say they will not change their mind before election day,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This proportion rises to 86% among those aged 55 and over.”

Compared to early April, overall voter consideration is stagnant for the Liberals (55%, =), the Conservatives (48%, =) and the New Democrats (41%, =). At least one-in-four likely voters say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for the Greens (28%, +4), the Animal Protection Party (23%, +2) or the Libertarian Party (21%, +3) if they ran a candidate in their riding.

Voter consideration is lower for the People’s Party (19%, -1), the Canadian Future Party (also 19%, =), the Christian Heritage Party (16%, +2), the Marijuana Party (15%, =), the Centrist Party (also 15%, +2), the United Party (14%, -1), the Communist Party (13%, +3), the Rhinocéros Party (12%, +1) and the Marxist-Leninist Party (10%, -2).

Practically three-in-five likely voters (59%, +1) approve of the performance of Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney. The rating is lower for Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (47%, +3), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (44%, +4), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (28%, +3), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (27%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (21%, -1).

Carney once again achieves a positive momentum score (+14), with 38% of likely voters saying their opinion of him has improved since the campaign began. The scores remain in negative territory for Poilievre (-5), Pedneault (-15), Blanchet (also -15), Singh (also -15) and Bernier (-17).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, the gap between the two main party leaders has narrowed. Carney is first with 45% (+2), and Poilievre is second with 35% (+6). Singh is third with 8% (-1), followed by Blanchet (3%, -1), Bernier (1%, -1) and Pedneault (1%, =).

Almost half of likely voters (47%, +4) say there is nothing Carney can say or do to make them vote for the Liberals. The numbers are higher for Poilievre and the Conservatives (52%, +1) and Singh and the New Democrats (57%, +3).

Just under three-in-five likely voters (59%, -1) say they are comfortable with Carney being in charge of Canada’s economy. The rating for Poilievre on this question increased by four points, from 46% in early April to 50% now.

Likely voters were asked to choose which one of the two main party leaders would be the best person to handle 10 different issues. Poilievre leads Carney on crime and public safety (41% to 35%) and the two leaders are statistically tied on immigration (Poilievre 39%, Carney 37%) and energy and pipelines (Carney 40%, Poilievre 38%).

The Liberal leader is ahead of his Conservative counterpart on seven issues, but with lower margins than at the start of the month: Canada-U.S. Relations (48% to 34%), foreign affairs (47% to 34%), the economy and jobs (43% to 39%), accountability and leadership (43% to 36%), health care (42% to 34%), housing, homelessness and poverty (41% to 35%) and the environment (41% to 32%).

Likely voters were provided with a list of words that people may use to describe politicians and asked to select up to six to describe each of the three main party leaders.

The top five words used to describe Singh are compassionate (28%, -12 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2023), intelligent (26%, -11), down to earth (also 26%, -7), weak (25%, +7) and out of touch (22%, +2).

Almost two-in-five Canadians (39%, -1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February) brand Poilievre as arrogant. Other words used to describe the Conservative leader are intelligent (33%, =), strong (30%, -2), dishonest (27%, +1) and out of touch (24%, +1).

The words used for Carney outline a significant difference from the way Canadians described Justin Trudeau two years ago: intelligent (48%, +13), strong (35%, +16), efficient (33%, +16), honest (27%, +8) and dishonest (25%, -11).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on April 19 and April 20, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,006 likely voters in Canada, including 965 decided voters in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

The State of the Race in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

April 20, 2025April 24, 2025By Mario Canseco

Eligible voters in this constituency are more likely to prefer a federal government headed by Mark Carney.

Vancouver, BC [April 20, 2025] – With a week left in Canada’s federal election campaign, the Conservative Party is ahead in the Vancouver Island riding of Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the mixed mode survey of a representative sample of eligible voters in this constituency, 36% of respondents say they will cast a ballot for Conservative candidate Jeff Kibble, while 29% would support incumbent MP Alistair MacGregor of the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Blair Herbert of the Liberal Party is third with 19%, followed by Kathleen Code of the Green Party with 5%. Just over one-in-ten eligible voters in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford (11%) are undecided.

Almost half of eligible voters in this riding (46%) say they would “definitely” (18%) or “probably” (28%) partake in strategic voting, while 45% say they would “probably not” (20%) or “definitely not” (25%) do so.

More than three-in-five eligible voters in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford (62%) approve of MacGregor’s performance as Member of Parliament, while just over three-in-ten (31%) disapprove.

The best ranked federal party leader in this constituency is Jagmeet Singh of the NDP (51%), followed by Mark Carney of the Liberals (48%), Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party (45%), Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault of the Greens (31%) and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (19%).

When eligible voters in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford are asked who they prefer to serve as Prime Minister of Canada after this year’s federal election, 40% choose Carney while 36% select Poilievre.

Carney leads among women (42%) and eligible voters aged 18-to-34 (45%) and aged 35-to-54 (42%), while Poilievre is ahead among men (45%) and eligible voters aged 55 and over (47%).

Methodology: Results are based on a mixed mode (telephone and online) survey conducted from April 15 to April 19, 2025, among 401 eligible federal voters in the Cowichan—Malahat—Langford federal constituency. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age and gender in the Cowichan—Malahat—Langford federal constituency. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Survey sponsor – David Campbell

Organization that conducted the survey – Research Co.

Dates or period during which the survey was conducted – April 15 to April 19, 2025

Population from which the sample of respondents was drawn – Eligible voters who reside in the Cowichan—Malahat—Langford federal constituency

Number of people who were contacted to participate in the survey – 401

Margin of error for the data – +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Address of the website on which a report by the survey’s sponsor is published – https://researchco.ca/2025/04/20/cml/

The State of the Race in North Island—Powell River

April 20, 2025April 24, 2025By Mario Canseco

Eligible voters in this constituency are more likely to prefer a federal government headed by Pierre Poilievre.

Vancouver, BC [April 20, 2025] – With a week left in Canada’s federal election campaign, the Conservative Party is ahead in the Vancouver Island riding of North Island—Powell River, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the mixed mode survey of a representative sample of eligible voters in this constituency, 45% of respondents say they will cast a ballot for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn, while 23% would support Tanille Johnston of the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Jennifer Lash of the Liberal Party is third with 13%, followed by Jassica Wegg of the Green Party with 2%, Paul Macknight of the People’s Party also with 2% and independent candidate Glen Staples with 1%. About one-in-six eligible voters in North Island—Powell River (15%) are undecided.

More than two-in-five eligible voters in this riding (44%) say they would “definitely” (14%) or “probably” (30%) partake in strategic voting, while 45% say they would “probably not” (21%) or “definitely not” (24%) do so.

Just over half of eligible voters in North Island—Powell River (51%) approve of Rachel Blaney’s performance as their Member of Parliament, while two-in-five (40%) disapprove. Blaney, who has represented the riding since 2015, is not running for re-election this year.

The best ranked federal party leader in this constituency is Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party (53%), followed by Mark Carney of the Liberals (42%), Jagmeet Singh of the NDP (41%), Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault of the Greens (27%) and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (19%).

When eligible voters in North Island—Powell River are asked who they prefer to serve as Prime Minister of Canada after this year’s federal election, 43% choose Poilievre while 37% select Carney.

Poilievre is ahead among men (53%), eligible voters aged 35-to-54 (48%) and eligible voters aged 55 and over (49%), while Carney leads among eligible voters aged 18-to-34 (45%). The two contenders are statistically tied among women (Carney 35%, Poilievre 34%).

Methodology: Results are based on a mixed mode (telephone and online) survey conducted from April 17 to April 19, 2025, among 402 eligible federal voters in the North Island—Powell River federal constituency. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age and gender in the North Island—Powell River federal constituency. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Survey sponsor – The David Suzuki Institute

Organization that conducted the survey – Research Co.

Dates or period during which the survey was conducted – April 17 to April 19, 2025

Population from which the sample of respondents was drawn – Eligible voters who reside in the North Island—Powell River federal constituency

Number of people who were contacted to participate in the survey – 402

Margin of error for the data – +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Address of the website on which a report by the survey’s sponsor is published – https://researchco.ca/2025/04/20/nipr/

Liberals Remain Ahead of Conservatives in Canadian Campaign

April 8, 2025April 20, 2025By Mario Canseco

Mark Carney leads Pierre Poilievre when likely voters are asked who would be best to manage seven important issues.

Vancouver, BC [April 8, 2025] – The governing Liberal Party holds an eight-point advantage over the opposition Conservative Party as the federal election campaign continues in Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 44% of decided voters would support the Liberals (+3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in late March), while 36% (-1) would back the Conservatives.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 8% (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 5% (-2), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario (48% to 39%), Quebec (47% to 22%, with the Bloc at 19%) and British Columbia (44% to 38%). The Conservatives are first in Alberta (51%, with the Liberals at 28%).

“The retention rate continues to be stellar for both Conservatives and Liberals, who are holding on to at least four-in-five of their 2021 voters (82% and 80% respectively),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are keeping fewer than half of their voters from the last federal election (45%).”

Just over three-in-ten likely voters (31%, +1) think Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue facing the country. Significantly fewer choose the economy and jobs (19%, -1), housing, homelessness and poverty (18%, +1), health care (11%, +2) and immigration (5%, -2).

Overall voter consideration remains higher for the Liberals (55%, +2) than for the Conservatives (48%, +2) and the New Democrats (41%, +6)

Fewer than one-in-four likely voters say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting their ballot for the Greens (24%, -1), the Animal Protection Party (21%, -2), the People’s Party (20%, -1), the Canadian Future Party (19%, -5), the Libertarian Party (18%, +1), the United Party (15%, +1), the Marijuana Party (also 15%), the Christian Heritage Party (14%, -1), the Centrist Party (13%, =), the Marxist-Leninist Party (12%, +2) the Rhinocéros Party (11%, +1) or the Communist Party (10%, =) if they ran a candidate in their riding.

Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party has the lowest approval rating among the six main party leaders (22%, -3). The numbers are higher for Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (25%, -5), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (also 25%, =), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (40%, +2), Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (44%, -2) and Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney (58%, +1).

Carney posts a positive momentum score this week (+14), with 36% of likely voters saying their opinion of him has improved since the start of the campaign and 22% saying it has worsened. The scores are in negative territory for Poilievre (-13), Pedneault (-14), Blanchet (-16), Singh (-18) and Bernier (also -18).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, more than two-in-five likely voters (43%, +4) choose Carney, while fewer than three-in-ten (29%, -4) select Poilievre. Singh is third with 9% (=), followed by Blanchet (4%, +1), Bernier (2%, =) and Pedneault (1%, -1).

More than half of likely voters (54%) say there is nothing Singh can say or do to make them vote for the NDP. The proportions are lower on this question for Poilievre and the Conservatives (51%) and Carney and the Liberals (43%).

Three-in-five likely voters (60%, +1) are comfortable with Carney being in charge of Canada’s economy, while 46% (=) would be comfortable if Poilievre were to take over.

Likely voters were asked to choose which one of the two main party leaders would be the best person to manage 10 different issues. Perceptions are particularly close on three issues: crime and public safety (Poilievre 36%, Carney 34%), energy and pipelines (Carney 38%, Poilievre 37%) and immigration (Carney 37%, Poilievre 36%).

The Liberal leader holds the upper hand over his Conservative counterpart on seven issues: housing, homelessness and poverty (41% to 31%), the environment (42% to 26%), health care (43% to 28%), accountability and leadership (44% to 32%), the economy and jobs (46% to 32%), foreign affairs (46% to 30%) and Canada-U.S. Relations (49% to 29%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on April 5 and April 6, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,007 likely voters in Canada, including 956 decided voters in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Carney Boosts Liberals as Canadian Federal Campaign Begins

March 25, 2025March 24, 2025By Mario Canseco

Canada-U.S. Relations becomes the most important issue for voters, outpacing jobs, housing, health care and immigration.

Vancouver, BC [March 25, 2025] – Support for the governing Liberal Party has significantly increased since Mark Carney was selected as its leader, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 41% of decided voters in Canada would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their constituency if the federal election took place today, up 20 points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in early January, prior to the announcement of Justin Trudeau’s departure as head of government.

The Conservative Party is in second place with 37% (-10), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 9% (-6), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (-3), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

Three regions of the country post statistical ties in the early stages of the federal campaign: Atlantic Canada (Liberals 42%, Conservatives 40%), Ontario (Liberals 43%, Conservatives 40%) and British Columbia (Liberals 41%, Conservatives 39%).

The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (56%), while the Liberals are leading in Quebec (43%, with the Conservatives and the Bloc tied at 22%).

“Practically one-in-four voters who supported the New Democrats in 2021 (24%) are voting for the Liberals in 2025,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is significantly higher for the Conservatives (85%) and the Liberals (83%).”

More than half of Canadians (53%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the Liberals if they ran a candidate in their constituency. Voting consideration is currently lower for the Conservatives (46%), the New Democrats (35%) and the Greens (25%).

Just over one-in-five Canadians (21%) would consider voting for the People’s Party, which has never elected a candidate to the House of Commons. Consideration is higher for the Canadian Future Party (24%) and the Animal Protection Party (23%) and lower for seven other political organizations: the Libertarian Party (17%), the Christian Heritage Party (15%), the United Party (14%), the Centrist Party (13%), the Rhinocéros Party (10%), the Marxist-Leninist Party (also 10%) and the Communist Party (also 10%).

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%) say Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue facing the country right now, followed by the economy and jobs (20%, -2), housing, homelessness and poverty (17%, -12), health care (9%, -7) and immigration (7%, -6).

There is a significant age gap on the top issue, with Canada-U.S. Relations peaking at 44% among Canadians aged 55 and over, but dropping to 30% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 17% among those aged 18-to-34. The country’s youngest adults are more likely to be concerned about housing, homelessness and poverty (24%) or the economy and jobs (23%).

More than half of Canadians (57%) approve of the way Mark Carney has handled his duties as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party. The rating is lower for Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (46%, -6), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (38%, -1), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (30%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, -2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (also 25%, +2).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, almost two-in-five Canadians (39%) select Carney, while one third (33%, -6) choose Poilievre. The remaining party leaders are in single digits on this question, where the level of undecided respondents fell from 17% in January to 12% this month.

Carney also holds the upper hand over Poilievre on a question related to financial management. Almost three-in-five Canadians (59%) say they are comfortable with the Liberal leader being in charge of Canada’s economy, a 25-point improvement from Trudeau’s last result in early January.

Fewer than half of Canadians (46%, -9) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being in charge of Canada’s economy—a proportion that rises to 62% in Alberta.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on March 23 and March 24, 2025, among 1,003 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbia’s Political Scene Remains Closely Contested

March 11, 2025March 11, 2025By Mario Canseco

The standing of the two major parties has not changed much since the October 2024 provincial election.

Vancouver, BC [March 11, 2025] – British Columbia’s main political parties hold similar levels of public support as the legislative session gets underway, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters would back the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) if an election were held today, while 42% would support the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 11%, while 3% of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates.

“More than half of decided voters aged 55 and over (54%) would back the BC NDP in a new provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost half of decided voters aged 35-to-49 (49%) are with the BC Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the New Democrats are clearly ahead of the Conservatives in Vancouver Island (50% to 31%). The race is closer in Southern BC (BC NDP 49%, BC Conservatives 47%) and in Metro Vancouver (both parties tied with 44%). The BC Conservatives hold leads in the Fraser Valley (47% to 34%) and in Northern BC (44% to 39%).

The BC NDP is ahead on a separate question, with 53% of British Columbians saying they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the party in the next provincial election. Consideration is lower for the BC Conservatives (45%) and the BC Greens (39%).

More than half of British Columbians (55%) approve of the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby, up two points from the final Research Co. election survey conducted in October 2024. Satisfaction is lower with Official Opposition and Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad (40%, -2) and interim BC Green Party leader Jeremy Valeriote (34%).

A merger of the BC Green Party and the BC NDP is regarded as a “good idea” by 46% of British Columbians and a “bad idea” by 33%.

Just over a third of British Columbians (34%) think BC United merging with the Conservative Party of BC is a “good idea”, while two-in-five (40%) deem it a “bad idea”.

More than a third of British Columbians (36%, -4) say housing, poverty and homelessness is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (21%, -2), the economy and jobs (20%, +6), crime and public safety (6%, =), the environment (3%, -1) and accountability (3%, =).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from March 3 to March 5, 2025, among 802 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

How Ontario Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

March 3, 2025March 3, 2025By Mario Canseco

The governing party connected equally well on leadership and policies. The two opposition parties were unable to break through on desire for change.

The foibles of Canada’s first-past-the-post system can explain why supporters of the Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario are going through mixed feelings after last week’s provincial election. Premier Doug Ford will form a majority government once again, with his party going from 41% of the vote and 83 seats in 2022, to 43% of the vote and 80 seats in 2025.

The early election, designed to give Ford a mandate than would last longer than the second term of United States President Donald Trump, once again showed how widely vote efficiency can vary. The Ontario New Democratic Paty (NDP) will form the Official Opposition, with 27 seats secured with 19% of the province-wide vote. The Ontario Liberal Party received 30% of all cast ballots but won just 14 seats.

In our “Exit Poll”, more than three-in-five Ontarians (63%) claim to have voted strategically, defined as voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. The numbers do not sway much among supporters of specific political parties: 68% for Liberals, 63% for New Democrats and 61% for Progressive Conservatives. We are almost as likely to find a PC supporter who voted against the Liberals or New Democrats, than to find a hard-core Liberal who went for the NDP in order to ensure that a seat did not turn blue.

The main motivators for Progressive Conservative supporters were the party’s leader (33%) and the party’s ideas and policies (also 33%). The score for the leaders of the Liberals and New Democrats is slightly lower (31% and 26% respectively).

Desire for change—which usually jumps when the opposition connects well—sits at a low 14% for both opposition parties. The party’s candidate in the riding rises to 17% for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals (11%) and Progressive Conservatives (9%).

Ontarians are still divided on whether the Liberals and New Democrats should merge into a single political party, with 44% agreeing with the concept and 42% disagreeing with it. Majorities of Ontarians who cast a ballot for Liberal candidates (62%) and New Democratic candidates (52%) like the idea, but only 32% of those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives concur.

In our 2022 Exit Poll, only 39% of Ontarians welcomed a possible Liberal-NDP merger. As another election cycle goes by without a solid alternative to the Progressive Conservatives, appetite for a deal featuring centre-left parties has grown.

In addition, more Ontarians are getting behind electoral reform. More than three-in-five voters (62%) think Ontario should implement a system of proportional representation for provincial elections, up four points since 2022. What is striking about the findings this year is that voters aged 35-to-54 are more likely to desire a different system (67%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (61%) and aged 55 and over (58%). In any case, we have majorities across all age groups who openly wonder whether a party should have so much control of the legislature with fewer than 50 per cent of all cast ballots.

Ford’s latest transformation into “Captain Canada” has not gone unnoticed. Almost half of provincial voters in Ontario (47%) say they would like to see him become leader of the Conservative Party of Canada at some point. The gender gap on this question is negligible (Men 49%, Women 45%) and the idea is particularly appealing to Ontario voters aged 18-to-34 (51%), as well as residents of two seat-rich regions: the 905 (50%) and the 416 (49%) area codes.

We asked these same voters if they would like to see Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister later this year. The province-wide proportion is lower (43%), but while almost half of men are ready to see Poilievre heading the federal government (49%), only 39% of women concur.

In a troubling finding for Conservative supporters, just 36% of Ontario’s oldest adults—traditionally the most reliable voters—would like to see Poilievre supplant Justin Trudeau. This is a far cry from the state of affairs at the start of the year, when 51% of decided voters in Ontario were with the Conservatives before Trudeau announced his intention to step down. Poilievre remains popular in the 905 (47%) and the 416 (45%) regions, but his numbers are not as good as what Ford commands as a “future” federal Conservative leader.

All polls are snapshots, and this one is unique for several reasons. Poilievre is not being compared to any Liberal rival. The survey focuses only on Ontarians who cast a ballot in the latest provincial election, and we can expect turnout to be higher federally than what has been observed in the two previous Ontario provincial ballots. Still, it is clear that Ford’s decision to call an election because of what transpired in the United States has paid off. His popularity has grown, and some Ontarians are starting to wonder if he is ready for a larger job than the one he has just been re-elected to.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 27 to March 1, 2025, among 501 Ontario adults who voted in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.