British Columbia – Page 3

How British Columbia Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

October 21, 2024October 31, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most voters knew who they were going to vote for before the official start of the campaign.

Vancouver, BC [October 21, 2024] – The 2024 British Columbia provincial election was close all the way. In the four surveys conducted by Research Co. in September and October—after BC United suspended its campaign—the totals for the three main parties, as well as the proportion of decided voters who were considering independents or other political organizations, fluctuated by three percentage points or less.

The province is now in a scenario similar to the one experienced in 2017. Nobody has enough seats to command the Legislative Assembly. The governing party is currently slightly ahead of the opposition challengers on both seats and vote totals.

Our “Exit Poll” helps explain the lack of movement in the final stages of the democratic process. More than half of voters in British Columbia (53%) told us they made up their minds on which party or candidate to vote for prior to the official start of the campaign on September 21. This includes majorities of those who supported the ruling BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (57%) and the upstart Conservative Party of BC (54%). Placing the spotlight on specific candidates for things they said or posted online in the final days of the campaign did not matter much.

On a regional basis, the two areas with the highest proportions of “late deciders” are the Fraser Valley (25%) and Metro Vancouver (23%). In stark contrast, almost two thirds of Northern BC voters (65%) were set on their choice before the campaign began, making things significantly more complicated for independent candidates.

Similar proportions of British Columbians made their choice in the first weeks of the campaign (19%) or after the televised debate (20%). A larger proportion of voters ultimately chose the BC Greens in the final stage (27%) than the BC NDP (21%) or the Conservatives (17%).

The key motivators for BC NDP voters were the party’s ideas and policies (48%), the party’s leader (24%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%) and a desire for stability (also 10%). Supporters of the BC Conservatives were persuaded by the party’s ideas and policies (43%), a desire for change (22%), the party’s leader (21%) and the party’s candidate in the riding (10%).

This finding explains the current state of affairs. More than one-in-five Conservatives yearned for change, and just one-in-ten New Democrats voted for stability. On change as a fundamental motivator, the BC Conservatives are just between the Manitoba New Democrats in 2023 (33%) and the Alberta New Democrats in the same year (9%). One of these parties formed a majority government, and the other did not.

The province awaits in a polarized state. Voters are more likely to say they would welcome majority (52%) or minority (48%) governments headed by the BC NDP than majority (43%) or minority (34%) administrations headed by the BC Conservatives. They are also more likely to think the BC NDP ran a positive campaign (55%) than the BC Greens (51%) or the BC Conservatives (43%).

A different type of coalescing of the “free enterprise movement” would have had other ramifications. Only 30% of voters would have backed the Conservatives if Kevin Falcon had been their leader instead of John Rustad. The proportions are lower for Christy Clark (27%), the last leader of the BC Liberals who formed a government. Falcon receives a resounding “No” from voters aged 55 and over, with 54% “strongly disagreeing” that his leadership of the BC Conservatives would have enticed them.

As was the case in 2005, 2009 and 2017, two provincial parties in British Columbia each received more than 40 per cent of the vote. When we pose the scenario of future coalitions, the reaction is mixed. Only 35% of voters think the Conservative Party of BC and BC United should consider a formal merger into a single provincial political party, including 55% of those who cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives in this year’s election. Support is higher (44%) for a merger encompassing the BC NDP and the BC Green Party, an idea backed by 67% of New Democrats and 49% of Greens.

The 2017 election ultimately ended with the resignation of Premier Clark and the formation of a government headed by BC NDP leader John Horgan, with support from the BC Greens. At this point, British Columbians are ready to see what develops in the Legislative Assembly with two familiar faces. Similar minorities believe Eby and Rustad should resign as leaders (42% and 43% respectively) if they fail to form the government. Their bases, however, are staunchly behind them. Almost two thirds of NDP voters (65%) believe Eby should stay put, and a majority of BC Conservatives (53%) want Rustad to remain at the helm of his party.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 19 and October 20, 2024, among 700 adults in British Columbia who voted in the 2024 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

No Major Movement in Final Stages of British Columbia Campaign

October 18, 2024October 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is three points ahead of the opposition Conservative Party of BC.

Vancouver, BC [October 18, 2024] – The perceptions of likely voters in British Columbia did not go through a major shift in the final week of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters—as well as British Columbians who have already voted by mail or in the advance polls—support the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding, while 41% back the Conservative Party of BC. The BC Green Party remains in third place with 12%, and 3% of decided voters would vote for independent candidates or other parties.

Compared to the previous Research Co. poll conducted in mid-October, the province-wide results see the New Democrats shedding one point and the Greens gaining one point.

On a regional basis, the New Democrats remain ahead of the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (49% to 40%) and Vancouver Island (45% to 33%, with the Greens at 20%).

The Conservatives have the upper-hand over the New Democrats in Northern BC (53% to 29%) and are three-points ahead in Southern BC (44% to 41%). The race is extremely close in the 10 Fraser Valley ridings, where the two main partes are tied with 47% each.

“The final poll of British Columbia’s provincial campaign continues to show a noticeable gender gap,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Women prefer the BC NDP over the BC Conservatives (46% to 37%), while men choose the opposition party over the governing one (45% to 41%).”

Decided voters aged 55 and over favour the BC NDP (51% to 37%), while their counterparts aged 18-to-34 give the BC Conservatives the edge (46% to 35%). The two parties are tied with 42% among decided voters aged 35-to-54.

Most decided voters who supported the BC Liberals in the 2020 election (63%) are backing the BC Conservatives in 2024. However, just one-in-four of these voters (25%) are now favouring the BC New Democrats.

Housing, homelessness and poverty remains the most important issue for likely voters in British Columbia (40%, -1), followed by health care (23%, +1), the economy and jobs (15%, -1), crime and public safety (6%, -1) and the environment (4%, =).

At the end of the campaign, the approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 53% (=). The numbers are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (50%, +5) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (42%, =).

Furstenau once again posts a positive momentum score (+12), with 24% of likely voters saying their impression of her has improved since the start of the campaign, and 12% claiming it has worsened. The momentum scores remain negative for the other two leaders (Eby at -4 and Rustad at -10).

Eby remains ahead on the “Best Premier” question, with 40% of likely voters (=) picking him for the province’s top political job, with 32% (+1) selecting Rustad. Furstenau is third with 14% (=), while 14% of likely voters (-1) are not sure.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 17 and October 18, 2024, among a representative sample of 803 likely voters in British Columbia, including 753 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

NDP Steady, Conservatives Fall Behind in British Columbia

October 15, 2024October 18, 2024By Mario Canseco

Housing, homelessness and poverty is still identified as the most important issue facing the province.

Vancouver, BC [October 15, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is ahead of the Conservative Party of BC in the final stages of British Columbia’s electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters (unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early October) would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 41% (-3) would vote for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party is third with 11% (+2), while 3% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

The governing BC NDP has extended its lead over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (50% to 40%) and Vancouver Island (45% to 33%). The two parties are virtually tied in the Fraser Valley (BC NDP 45%, BC Conservatives 44%) and Southern BC (BC Conservatives 43%, BC NDP 42%), while the BC Conservatives remain ahead in Northern BC (52% to 34%).

“The BC Conservatives keep the upper hand among men (45%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (44%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC NDP is first among women (50%) and voters aged 55 and over (53%).”

Just over two-in-five likely voters in British Columbia (41%, +1) point to housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (22%, +3), the economy and jobs (17%, -1), crime and public safety (7%, -1) and the environment (4%, =).

More than half of likely voters in the province (52%, +1) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby is handling his duties. The rating improved for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (45%, +3) and dropped for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (42%, -3).

Furstenau posts a momentum score of +8 (23% of likely voters say their impression of her has improved since the start of the campaign, while 15% say it has worsened). The momentum scores are negative for both Eby (-4) and Rustad (-10).

There was little movement on the “Best Premier” question, with 40% of likely voters (=) selecting Eby and 31% (-1) choosing Rustad. Furstenau is third with 14% (+2), while 15% of likely voters (-2) are not sure.

On issue management, Eby is preferred over Rustad to handle nine different issues: health care (41% to 27%), housing, homelessness and poverty (39% to 30%), creating jobs (38% to 34%), transportation projects (37% to 29%), education (37% to 26%), seniors care (36% to 26%), dealing with municipal governments (35% to 30%), accountability (35% to 30%) and child care (34% to 24%).

Rustad leads Eby on crime and public safety (37% to 34%), while the two main leaders are tied or virtually tied on the economy (37% each), energy (Eby 33%, Rustad 30%) and managing the province’s finances (Eby 35%, Rustad 33%). Furstenau is the top choice to handle the environment (40%, with Eby at 24% and Rustad at 20%).

The top four traits likely voters see in Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (57%, =), having a vision for the future (51%, =), understanding the problems of residents (50%, +2) and being a strong and decisive leader (48%, +1).

The most mentioned traits for Rustad are having a vision for the future (49%, +2), being patronizing (44%, +4), being a good speaker and communicator (42%, -4), being a strong and decisive leader (42%, -3) and understanding the problems of residents (42%, -2).

The top traits for Furstenau are being a good speaker and communicator (44%, +5), being honest and trustworthy (42%, +4), having a vision for the future (41%, +3) and understanding the problems of residents (40%, +5).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2024, among a representative sample of 800 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Worried About Shortage of Doctors and Nurses

October 9, 2024October 9, 2024By Mario Canseco

Almost half of residents endorse the use of SOGI-Inclusive Education, while 77% agree with the K-12 mobile phone ban.

Vancouver, BC [October 9, 2024] – The concerns of British Columbians when pondering the health care system have not varied greatly over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, more than two-in-five British Columbians (42%, +2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in November 2023) say the biggest problem facing the health care system right now is a shortage of doctors and nurses, followed by long waiting times (23%, +1) and inadequate resources and facilities (11%, +1).

Fewer British Columbians cite other concerns, such as bureaucracy and poor management (9%, -3), lack of a wider range of services for patients (4%, =), little focus on preventive care (also 4%, -2), vague legal rights of patients (2%, +1) and insufficient standards of hygiene (also 2%, +1).

Health Care

Just under half of British Columbians (49%, -6) say there are some good things in health care in the province, but some changes are required. Smaller proportions of residents hold differing views: that health care in British Columbia has so much wrong with it that we need to completely rebuild it (31%, +1) or that health care in British Columbia works well, and only minor changes are needed to make it work better (16%, +6).

About two-in-five British Columbians say they would be willing to pay out of their own pocket (41%, -5) or travel to another country to have quicker access to medical services that currently have long waiting times (39%, +1).

“Almost half of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (49%) would consider paying for medical services,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (39%) and aged 55 and over (38%).”

Child Care

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians (72%) think the provincial government should continue to invest in building a flexible child care system that costs families no more than $10 a day—a proportion that rises to 82% in Southern BC and to 80% in Vancouver Island.

Just under four-in-five British Columbians (78%)—and 90% of those aged 55 and over—agree that employers benefit from investments in child care because more parents can go to work.

Education

Some school districts in British Columbia have relied on “SOGI-Inclusive Education”, which raises awareness of and welcomes students of all sexual orientations, gender identities and family structures.

Just under half of British Columbians (49%) agree with the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education” in the province, while 34% disagree and 16% are not sure.

Support for “SOGI-Inclusive Education” is highest among British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (61%) and residents of Metro Vancouver (52%).

More than three-in-four British Columbians (77%) agree with banning the use of mobile phones during instructional time in K-12 classrooms.

The policy is endorsed by majorities of British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals (86%), the BC NDP (83%) or the BC Greens (78%) in the 2020 provincial election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 5 to September 7, 2024, among a representative sample of 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

No Clear Frontrunner in British Columbia’s Provincial Election

October 4, 2024October 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

David Eby holds an eight-point advantage over John Rustad when voters ponder who would make the “Best Premier”.

Vancouver, BC [October 4, 2024] – No political party has managed to amass a significant advantage at the midway point of the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early September) say they would vote for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency, while 44% (+2) would cast a ballot for the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 9% (-1), while 2% of decided voters (-1) would vote for other parties or independent candidates.

The race has tightened across all regions, with the governing BC NDP leading the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (49% to 44%) and Vancouver Island (42% to 37%). The opposition party is ahead of the governing party in the Fraser Valley (48% to 43%), Southern BC (47% to 42%) and Northern BC (47% to 36%).

As was the case last month, the BC NDP remains the most popular choice for women (50%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (52%). The BC Conservatives are ahead among men (49%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (47%).

“By a 2-to-1 margin, voters who supported the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson in the 2020 provincial election are choosing the BC Conservatives (61%) over the BC NDP (32%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate for the BC New Democrats is 72%, while the BC Greens are holding on to 47% of their voters from the last provincial ballot.”

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, -1) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (19%, -2), the economy and jobs (18%, +4), crime and public safety (8%, +2) and the environment (4%, =).

There was little fluctuation in the approval ratings of the three party leaders. More than half of likely voters (52%, +1) are satisfied with the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby. The numbers are lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (45%, -3) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (42%, +1).

All three party leaders post negative momentum scores: -3 for Rustad (with 30% of likely voters saying their views on the BC Conservative leader have worsened since the start of the campaign) and -2 for both Furstenau and Eby.

Two-in-five likely voters (40%, +4) think Eby would make the Best Premier of British Columbia, with Rustad in second place with 32% (+5) and Furstenau at 12% (=). On this question, Eby reaches 43% in Metro Vancouver, while Rustad’s best showing is in Southern BC (37%).

On issue management, Rustad is ahead of Eby on being the best person to handle crime and public safety (38% to 32%), while Furstenau remains ahead on the environment (35%, with Eby at 27% and Rustad at 20%).

Eby maintains the upper hand over Rustad on health care (42% to 27%), the economy (40% to 33%), education (39% to 26%), housing, homelessness and poverty (38% to 31%), transportation projects (38% to 30%), accountability (37% to 31%), child care (36% to 24%) and seniors care (36% to 25%).

The two main leaders are practically even on three issues, where Eby edges Rustad by just three points: creating jobs (36% to 33%), energy (33% to 30%) and dealing with municipal governments (35% to 32%). Eby and Rustad are tied with 35% each on being the best person to manage the province’s finances.

The top four traits likely voters identify on Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (57%, -1 since September), having a vision for the future (51%, =), generally agreeing with people on issues (49%, +7) and understanding the problems of residents (48%, +1).

For Rustad, the top four traits are having a vision for the future (47%, -2), being a good speaker and communicator (46%, -1, being a strong and decisive leader (45%, +3) and understanding the problems of residents (44%, +1).

Furstenau’s top traits are being a good speaker and communicator (39%, +1), being honest and trustworthy (38%, -1), having a vision for the future (also 38%, =) and understanding the problems of residents (35%, -3).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2024, among a representative sample of 801 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Making Ends Meet Harder for Three-in-Four British Columbians

October 2, 2024October 1, 2024By Mario Canseco

Only 14% think their municipal government should reject the provincial government’s demand to build more housing units.

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2024] – British Columbians head to this year’s provincial election voicing significant support for the current government’s housing plans, and severe dissatisfaction with economic matters, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 75% of British Columbians say it is “considerably harder” or “moderately harder” now to make ends meet than two years ago—a proportion that rises to 77% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 78% among renters.

More than half of British Columbians say four tasks are now harder than they were two years ago: finding a job (54%), paying for post-secondary education (59%), saving money for retirement (75%) and buying a house (79%).

“Sizeable majorities of British Columbians who reside in Metro Vancouver (59%) and Southern BC (58%) say finding a job is more complicated now than in 2022,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than four-in-five British Columbians aged 55 and over (82%) say it is harder now to save money for retirement.”

Most British Columbians remain supportive of the housing policies implemented during the tenure of John Horgan as Premier of British Columbia: increasing the foreign buyers tax from 15% to 20% (72%, -2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February 2024), expanding the foreign buyers tax to areas located outside of Metro Vancouver (69%, -2), introducing a “speculation tax” in specific urban areas targeting foreign and domestic homeowners who pay little or no income tax in BC, and those who own second properties that aren’t long-term rentals (66%, -3), introducing a tax of 0.2% on the value of homes between $3 million and $4 million, and a tax rate of 0.4% on the portion of a home’s value that exceeds $4 million (62%, =) and increasing the property transfer tax from 3% to 5% for homes valued at more than $3 million (61%, -1).

The housing policies that came into place after David Eby became Premier of British Columbia are also endorsed my majorities of the province’s residents: building more modular supportive homes in areas where people are experiencing homelessness (75%, =), capping rent increases in 2024 at 3.5% (70%), raising the fines for short-term rental hosts who break local municipal by-laws to $3,000 per day per infraction (64%, -5), implementing a three-business-day protection period for financing and home inspections (63%, -6), ending most strata age restrictions (59%, -1), removing strata rental restrictions (56%, +4) and banning homeowners from operating a short-term rental business unless it is located on their principal residence and/or on a different unit on their property (53%, -5).

Just under three-in-four British Columbians (74%) think their municipal government should accept the provincial government’s demand to build more housing units, while 14% disagree and 12% are undecided.

Residents of the Fraser Valley are slightly more likely to support the provincial government’s call to build more housing units (78%) than their counterparts who reside in Vancouver Island (76%), Metro Vancouver (73%), Southern BC (72%) and Northern BC (also 72%).

British Columbians are evenly divided on what the actions of the provincial government will bring, with 43% (+2) thinking they will be “effective” in making housing more affordable, and 43% (-4) believing they will be “ineffective”.

More than half of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (55%) expect the provincial government to succeed in making housing more affordable. Fewer residents aged 35-to-54 (45%) and aged 55 and over (31%) share this point of view.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Keen on Climate Change, Not on Carbon Tax

September 27, 2024September 26, 2024By Mario Canseco

More than half of the province’s residents (54%) think global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions.

Vancouver, BC [September 27, 2024] – While most British Columbians believe climate change is real and human-made, support for keeping the provincial carbon tax in the event of a Conservative Party victory in Canada’s next federal election has dropped over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, just over half of British Columbians (52%) think the provincial government should scrap the provincial carbon tax if the federal Conservatives follow through with their pledge to abolish the federal carbon tax upon forming the government, up nine points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2023.

Just over a third of British Columbians (35%, -5) would keep the provincial carbon tax even if the federal version is abandoned, while 13% (-3) are not sure.

“Most British Columbians who voted for the BC Green Party in 2020 (54%) would retain the provincial carbon tax,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer residents who cast ballots for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (44%) or the BC Liberals (30%) four years ago feel the same way.”

Just under two-in-five British Columbians (39%, +11) think the introduction of the carbon tax has led people to be more mindful of their carbon consumption and change their behaviour—a proportion that reaches 55% among those aged 18-to-34.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (63%, +1) say the carbon tax that was introduced in July 2008 has negatively affected the finances of their household.

Residents of the Fraser Valley (75%) and Northern BC (67%) are more likely to report a detrimental impact from the carbon tax than their counterparts in Metro Vancouver (62%), Vancouver Island (60%) and Northern BC (58%).

More than half of British Columbians (54%) think climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities. Fewer of the province’s residents believe climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by natural changes (25%) or a theory that has not yet been proven (13%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians (44%) believe we all need to do “much more” to deal with climate change, while just over three-in-ten (31%) feel the community needs to do “a bit more” to address it.

Fewer than one-in-five British Columbians (17%) think we do not need to do anything to deal with climate change—a group that includes 23% of men, 19% of British Columbians aged 35-to-54 and 23% of BC Liberal voters in the 2020 provincial election.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

On Most Pressing Issues, Eby Edges Rustad in British Columbia

September 20, 2024October 6, 2024By Mario Canseco

The BC NDP leader leads on housing and health care, while the BC Conservative leader is ahead on crime and public safety.

Vancouver, BC [September 20, 2024] – As the provincial electoral campaign is about to begin, British Columbians place Premier and BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader David Eby ahead of his rivals on the management of 10 issues, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 37% of British Columbians think Eby is best suited to deal with health care, while 28% select Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad and 14% choose Sonia Furstenau of the BC Greens.

Eby outranks Rustad on nine other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (35% to 29%), education (35% to 22%), creating jobs (35% to 31%), transportation projects (34% to 26%), dealing with municipal governments (34% to 28%), accountability (33% to 29%), energy (32% to 27%), child care (32% to 22%) and seniors care (32% to 25%).

Furstenau is the first choice of British Columbians to manage the environment (33%, with Eby at 26% and Rustad at 20%).

Rustad is ahead of Eby on dealing with crime and public safety (35% to 31%), while the two leaders are practically tied on the economy (Eby 34%, Rustad 33%) and managing the province’s finances (Eby 33%, Rustad 31%).

“British Columbians aged 18-to-34 prefer Rustad to Eby to be in charge of the province’s finances (34% to 27%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two leaders are practically tied among those aged 35-to-54 (33% for Eby and 32% for Rustad), while those aged 55 and over select Eby over Rustad (43% to 3%).”

When it comes to character traits, at least two-in-five British Columbians think Eby is a good speaker and communicator (58%, +6 since our previous survey conducted in June), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (51%, +7), understands the problems of BC residents (47%, +6), is a strong and decisive leader (46%, +6) and is in touch with the problems British Columbians face I their daily lives (45%, +8).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians regard Rustad as having a vision for the future (47%, +13), being a good speaker and communicator (also 47%, +14%), understanding the problems of BC residents (43%, +11), being a strong and decisive leader (42%, +12), and being in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (40%, +11).

More than three-in-ten British Columbians believe Furstenau is honest and trustworthy (39%, +5), is a good speaker and communicator (38%, +5), understands the problems of BC residents (also 38%, +6), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (also 38%, +2) and is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (35%, +5).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 9 to September 11, 2024, among a representative sample of 802 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Collapse of Official Opposition Tightens Election in British Columbia

September 17, 2024October 2, 2024By Mario Canseco

Women are more likely to say David Eby would make the “Best Premier”, while Eby and John Rustad are tied among men.

Vancouver, BC [September 17, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Conservative Party of BC are statistically tied as British Columbia awaits the official start of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters say they would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding, while 42% would support the BC Conservatives.

Since our July 2024 survey—conducted before Official Opposition leader Kevin Falcon suspended the BC United campaign—support for the two main parties has increased: by three points for the BC New Democrats and by four points for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party is third across the province with 10% (=), while 3% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

This month, the BC NDP remains ahead among women (47%) and voters aged 55 and over (51%). The BC Conservatives lead among men (48%) and voters aged 35-to-54 (46%). The race is close among decided voters aged 18-to-34: 40% for the BC NDP and 39% for the BC Conservatives.

The BC NDP is in first place in Metro Vancouver (50%) and Vancouver Island (44%), while the BC Conservatives are ahead in the Fraser Valley (57%), Southern BC (51%) and Northern BC (42%).

“The disappearance of BC United has propelled the BC Conservatives to first place in Southern BC, where the race was exceptionally close in July,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, 16% of decided voters in Northern BC are willing to support other parties or independent candidates—the highest proportion across all five regions of British Columbia.”

The BC NDP is keeping just over three-in-four voters (76%) who supported the party under John Horgan in the last provincial election. The BC Green Party is only holding on to 43% of its voters from the 2020 ballot, with 41% of them going to the BC Conservatives and 14% going to the BC NDP.

The BC Conservatives are the choice of three-in-five voters (60%) who cast ballots for BC Liberal candidates in 2020, while 29% of them are now with the BC NDP.

For the first time since we started tracking this question in May 2023, a majority of British Columbians say they would consider casting a ballot for the BC Conservatives (52%, +7) if they nominated a candidate in their constituency. The results on this question are higher for the BC New Democrats (55%, +4) and lower for the BC Greens (40%, +4).

Just over half of British Columbians (51%, +3) approve of the performance of Premier and BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader David Eby. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (48%, +9) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (41%, +6).

More than a third of British Columbians (36%) think Eby would make the Best Premier among the three party leaders, while 27% select Rustad and 12% pick Furstenau. One-in-four respondents (25%) are undecided on this question.

Among men, Eby and Rustad are tied on the “Best Premier” question (34% each), while Eby holds a substantial edge over Rustad among women (38% to 21%).

There has been little change on the issue landscape over the past two months. More than two-in-five British Columbians (41%, -1) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most prevalent concern facing the province, followed by health care (21%, =), the economy and jobs (14%, =), crime and public safety (6%, +1) and the environment (4%, -2).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Troubled by Antisemitic Incidents in Schools

September 13, 2024October 2, 2024By Mario Canseco

Almost two thirds believe that Canadian Jews are being unfairly targeted for what is happening in Israel and Gaza.

Vancouver, BC [September 13, 2024] – British Columbians are dismayed upon learning of specific incidents of antisemitism that reportedly took place in public schools, a new Research Co. poll conducted during the first week of classes has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, more than four-in-five British Columbians (81%) are “very concerned” or “moderately concerned” about the emotional and physical safety of students in the public school system.

“More than three-in-five British Columbians (64%) are not particularly confident about sending a Jewish student to a public school upon learning about these incidents,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion rises to 68% among women and to 74% among British Columbians aged 55 and over.”

The survey described seven incidents that reportedly happened in K-12 schools in British Columbia that have been shared by educators and parents.

Sizeable majorities of British Columbians find all incidents “very troubling” or “moderately troubling”, including a teacher in a Science 9 class referring to Jews as “genocidal murderers” (81%) and a teacher using the district email list to invite teachers and families to anti-Israel rallies (78%).

More than four-in-five British Columbians (84%) think these recent events mean that more should be done to ensure that teachers in British Columbia are adequately prepared to educate students of different ethnicities and creeds.

Almost two thirds of British Columbians (65%, -1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June) think Canadian Jews are being unfairly targeted for what is happening in Israel and Gaza.

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians are still concerned about four issues when thinking about the conflict in the Middle East and its impact here in Canada right now: attacks, including gunfire and firebombs, on synagogues, Jewish schools and businesses (74%, -5), protests targeting Jewish neighbourhoods and Jewish owned businesses (71%, -5), rising prejudice against Jewish Canadians (antisemitism) (also 71%, -4) and aggressive behaviour by Pro-Palestinian Protestors (also 71%, -3).

As was the case two months ago, just two-in-five British Columbians (40%, -1) believe police and governments are doing enough to combat antisemitism in their communities.

Confidence in the current ability of police and governments to combat antisemitism is highest in Northern BC (46%), followed by Metro Vancouver (44%), the Fraser Valley (38%), Vancouver Island (33%) and Southern BC (25%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 5 to September 7, 2024, among 814 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Mail Vote, Crucial in 2020, Shunned by British Columbians in 2024

August 2, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most of the province’s residents say they will cast their ballots on Election Day in October, up significantly from four years ago.

Vancouver, BC [August 2, 2024] – Few British Columbians are thinking of relying on mail-in ballots to vote in this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample asked British Columbians how they voted in the 2020 democratic process—which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic—and how they intend to vote in 2024.

More than half of British Columbians (52%) say they plan to cast their ballot in person on Election Day (October 19). Fewer than one third of the province’s residents (28%) voted this way in 2020.

Just over one-in-five British Columbians (21%) intend to vote in person during Advance Voting, down from 32% who chose this method four years ago.

Fewer than one-in-ten British Columbians (8%) will request a mail-in ballot in 2024, down from 28% who voted this way in the last provincial election.

Once the provincial campaign begins, more than seven-in-ten British Columbians (72%) say they will “definitely” or “probably” watch, listen or read news about the campaign in the media.

More than three-in-five British Columbians also intend to read the platforms and policy positions of political parties on their websites (68%) and review the background of candidates who are running in their constituency (65%).

Fewer British Columbias plan to attend (or watch) a debate featuring the main party leaders (52%), attend (or watch) a debate featuring candidates from their constituency (48%) or meet candidates who knock on their door (29%).

“More than a third of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (35%) will meet candidates who knock on their door during the campaign,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (29%) and aged 55 and over (25%).”

When asked which feelings they have about this year’s provincial election, more than three-in-ten British Columbians (31%) mention “indifference” while one-in-four (25%) say the ballot elicits “enthusiasm”.

Other words used by British Columbians to describe this year’s provincial democratic process are “trust” (18%), “fear” (15%), “pride” (11%), “anger” (also 11%), “joy” (10%), “sadness” (8%), “disgust” (7%) and “shame” (5%).

Voters in British Columbia who are currently supporting the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) mention four specific emotions: “enthusiasm” (32%), “indifference” (29%), “trust” (26%) and “fear” (13%).

Those who plan to vote for the Conservative Party of BC rely on the same emotions, but at different levels: “enthusiasm” (33%), “indifference” (25%), “fear” (22%) and “trust” (17%).

Supporters of the BC Green Party put “indifference” at the top of their list (37%), followed by “enthusiasm” (20%), “fear” (19%) and “anger” (19%).

The top four emotions for British Columbians who plan to vote for BC United are “enthusiasm” (28%), “indifference” (27%), “trust” (19%) and “joy” (18%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

BC Conservatives Rise, Governing BC NDP First in British Columbia

July 30, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Southern BC emerges as a key battleground in this year’s provincial election, with the two main parties virtually tied.

Vancouver, BC [July 30, 2024] – Public support for the Conservative Party of BC increased markedly in the past month, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 41% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2024) would support the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency if the election were held today, while 38% (+5) would cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party remains in third place with 10% (-5), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 9% (-2). Other parties and independent candidates have the support of 2% of decided voters (=).

The BC NDP is ahead of the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (44% to 35%) and Vancouver Island (43% to 32%), while the BC Conservatives lead the BC NDP in Northern BC (57% to 31%) and the Fraser Valley (47% to 28%).

“The race has tightened considerably in Southern BC, where the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives are virtually tied (40% to 38%)” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In June, the BC New Democrats were 11 points ahead of the BC Conservatives in this region of British Columbia (44% to 33%).”

The BC NDP remains popular among women (47%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (49%). The BC Conservatives are first among men (41%) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (45%).

Fewer than half of British Columbians (48%, -5) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby has handled his duties. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (39%, -1), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -4), and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (29%, -3).

There is a significant gender gap in the rating of one of the two main party leaders. Half of women in British Columbia (50%) approve of Eby, but just 32% feel the same way about Rustad. Among men, the two leaders post practically the same numbers (Eby 46%, Rustad 47%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would consider voting for the BC New Democrats (51%, -3) or the BC Conservatives (45%, -1) if they ran a candidate in their riding. The proportions are lower for the BC Greens (36%, -2) and BC United (32%, -2).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is still the most important issue facing the province for British Columbians (42%, +2), followed by health care (21%, +1), the economy and jobs (14%, -3), the environment (6%, +1) and crime and public safety (5%, -3).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Dissent Over Changing Province’s Name Rises in British Columbia

July 17, 2024July 16, 2024By Mario Canseco

Just over half of the province’s residents disagree with modifying the provincial flag to remove the Union Jack.

Vancouver, BC [July 17, 2024] – The proportion of British Columbians who are against changing the province’s name has risen over the past year and a half, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 60% of British Columbians disagree with changing the name of the province to acknowledge its Indigenous heritage, up seven points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2022.

Fewer than three-in-ten British Columbians (29%, -3) think a name change is warranted, while 10% (-5) are not sure.

British Columbians aged 18-to-34 are significantly more likely to endorse changing the province’s name (52%, +2) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (32%, -1) and aged 55 and over (11%, -6).

The possibility of a name change is more popular in Northern BC (38%, +6), followed by Metro Vancouver (32%, +1), Vancouver Island (31%, -6), the Fraser Valley (21%, -9) and Southern BC (20%, -6).

“Most British Columbians of Indigenous descent (61%) would welcome changing the province’s name,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among residents whose heritage is South Asian (38%), European (29%) or East Asian (also 29%).”

Almost two thirds British Columbians (65%, +3) say nothing bothers them about the name “British Columbia” for the province. Fewer than one-in-five are upset about the “British” part (18%, -1), the absence of an acknowledgement to Indigenous peoples (17%, -3) and the “Columbia” part (6%, -2).

Fewer than a third of British Columbians (31%, =) agree with changing the flag of the province to remove the Union Jack, while just over half (51%, +5) disagree and 19% (-4) are not sure.

Appetite for removing the Union Jack from British Columbia’s flag is highest among residents whose origins are Indigenous (51%) and South Asian (48%) but drops among those whose heritage is East Asian (35%) and European (26%).

In 2010, the Queen Charlotte Islands were renamed as Haida Gwaii. As was the case in 2022, most British Columbians (57%, -1) believe this was the correct decision, while 23% (+3) disagree and 20% (-3) are not sure.

Agreement with this particular name change is highest among British Columbians who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) in the last provincial election (72%), followed by those who cast ballots for the BC Green Party (60%) and the BC Liberals (47%) in 2020.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 24 to June 26, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Concerns About Antisemitism and Protests Rise in British Columbia

July 15, 2024July 14, 2024By Mario Canseco

Practically seven-in-ten residents think dismantling the campus protests and encampments was the correct course of action.

Vancouver, BC [July 15, 2024] – Many British Columbians are dissatisfied with the way the current conflict in Israel and Gaza is affecting Jewish Canadians, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, two thirds of British Columbians (66%) believe that Canadian Jews are being unfairly targeted for what is happening in Israel and Gaza. This includes majorities of residents who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (78%), the BC Liberals (77%) and the BC Green Party (55%) in the 2020 provincial election.

Concerns about specific domestic ramifications of the current conflict in Israel and Gaza have increased since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in February.

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians are currently “very concerned” or “moderately concerned” about attacks, including gunfire and firebombs, on synagogues, Jewish schools and businesses (79%), protestors targeting Jewish neighbourhoods and Jewish-owned businesses (76%, +4), rising prejudice against Jewish Canadians (antisemitism) (75%, +6) and aggressive behaviour by Pro-Palestinian Protestors (74%, +4).

“The perception of antisemitism as a significant issue does not vary greatly by political allegiance,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of British Columbians who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (84%), the BC Liberals (81%) and the BC Green Party (64%) in the 2020 provincial election are worried about prejudice rising against Jewish Canadians.”

More than half of British Columbians (57%) are familiar with the protests and encampments that have been happening at college and university campuses in Canada and the United States.

In some cases, protestors barricaded areas of campuses and refused to allow Jewish students and professors to enter or make their way to classes. The encampments were eventually dismantled by police and arrests were made.

Practically seven-in-ten British Columbians (69%) think universities were right to rely on the police to dismantle the protests and encampments, while only 14% believe they were wrong to do so.

Only 41% of British Columbians think police and governments are doing enough to combat antisemitism in their communities. Women (36%) are particularly skeptical of the way the situation has evolved.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 8 to June 10, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Eby is Ahead of Rivals on Character Traits in British Columbia

June 28, 2024July 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most of province’s residents place themselves at or near the centre of the political spectrum.

Vancouver, BC [June 28, 2024] – British Columbians hold contrasting views on the political leanings of the four party leaders contesting this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians also asked about characteristics that people may find in politicians.

At least two-in-five British Columbians say Premier and BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader David Eby is a good speaker and communicator (52%), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (44%), understands the problems of BC residents (41%), is a strong and decisive leader (40%) and is honest and trustworthy (also 40%).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians regard Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad as having a vision for the future (34%), being a good speaker and communicator (33%), understanding the problems of BC residents (32%) and being a strong and decisive leader (30%).

More than three-in-ten British Columbians think BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau has a vision for the province (36%), is honest and trustworthy (34%), is a good speaker and communicator (33%), understands the problems of BC residents (32%) and generally agrees with people on the issues they care about (31%).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians believe BC United leader Kevin Falcon is a good speaker and communicator (36%), is a strong and decisive leader (34%), understands the problems of BC residents (30%) and is patronizing (also 30%).

On the political spectrum, one third of British Columbians (33%) describe themselves as centre, while 16% say they are centre right and a further 16% place themselves as centre left.

The BC NDP is regarded as centre left, left or extreme left by 51% of British Columbians. More than two-in-five of the province’s residents (43%) place the Green Party in these same three categories.

The Conservative Party of BC is seen as centre right, right or extreme right by 61% of British Columbians, BC United is placed in these same three categories by 36% of British Columbians.

The answers to this question do not vary greatly for the leaders. Almost half of British Columbians (48%) perceive Eby as centre left, left or extreme left, and 41% feel the same way about Furstenau.

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (58%) brand Rustad as centre right, right or extreme right, compared to 37% for Falcon.

“Only one-in-ten British Columbians think Eby (10%) is extreme left,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost one-in-five (19%) believe Rustad is extreme right.”

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 17 to June 19, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

BC NDP Lead Narrows as British Columbians Ponder Choices

June 25, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Voter consideration for the Conservatives and the Greens rose since May, along with the approval ratings for their leaders.

Vancouver, BC [June 25, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of the Conservative Party of BC as British Columbians consider their options in this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 40% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May 2024) would cast a ballot for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding if the election were held today, while 33% (+1) would support the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 15% (+3), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 11% (-1). Other parties and independent candidates are backed by 2% of decided voters (=).

“The BC NDP remains ahead of all challengers in Metro Vancouver (41%), Vancouver Island (43%) and Southern BC (44%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC Conservatives lead in the Fraser Valley (40%) and Northern BC (53%).”

Two parties gained momentum in the voter consideration question: the BC Conservatives (46%, +4) and the BC Greens (38%, +3). The proportion of British Columbians who would consider supporting the BC NDP remains higher (54%, -1) while just over a third (34%, +1) feel the same way about BC United.

Housing, homelessness and poverty remains the most important issue for 40% of British Columbians (=). Health care is second on the list of pressing concerns with 20% (-1), followed by the economy and jobs (17%, +2), crime and public safety (8%, +3) and the environment (5%, =).

BC United’s Kevin Falcon continues to have the lowest approval rating among the four major party leaders (32%, +1). The proportions are higher for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (39%, +4), BC Conservative leader John Rustad (40%, +3) and Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby (53%, -1).

Eby is also ahead on the “Best Premier” question (28%), followed by Rustad (14%), Falcon (13%) and Furstenau (11%). While more than half of BC NDP voters in the 2020 provincial ballot (54%) choose Eby, only 28% of those who voted for the BC Liberals in the same election select Falcon.

When asked which leader would be best suited to manage specific issues, Eby has significant leads on health care (30%), education (28%), the economy and jobs (26%), child care (also 26%), housing, homelessness and poverty (also 26%), accountability (25%), transportation projects (24%), managing the province’s finances (also 24%), crime and public safety (23%), energy (also 23%), creating jobs (also 23%) and seniors care (22%).

On the environment, Eby and Furstenau are tied with 23% each. Rustad posts his best numbers on crime and public safety (18%) and the economy and jobs (17%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

What Do British Columbians Think About $10aDay Child Care?

May 27, 2024May 26, 2024By Mario Canseco

Practically four-in-five British Columbians agree that employers benefit from investments in child care cause more parents can go to work.

Introduction

In March 2024, the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of BC worked with Research Co.^[1] to conduct a provincial poll asking British Columbians about their views on $10aDay child care. The poll results add to the extensive input we regularly receive from over 20,000 $10aDay supporters and through outreach to and engagement in communities across the province. We also meet with government officials and carry out research and analysis – all to inform and update our $10aDay policy and funding recommendations.

The new provincial poll explores public views of $10aDay child care 6 years after the program’s launch in BC, and 5 years after our last provincial poll. To support comparisons over time, some polling questions are consistent with previous polls. Others reflect the new context (e.g. post-COVID, new federal funding, system implementation now underway) and the interest in flexible approaches to child care within the evolving $10aDay system.

Summary of Findings

British Columbians continue to strongly support $10aDay child care^[2]. Nearly 80% of British Columbians say it’s important for government to continue with its $10aDay commitments and three quarters (76%) think implementation should be moving more quickly. 75% of British Columbians also agree that flexible child care options are needed as more parents today work outside of Monday to Friday 9-5.

While only 9%^[3] of all the licensed child care spaces in BC are currently $10aDay, 20% of British Columbians report they’ve been personally touched by $10aDay child care, either directly or through someone they know. Notably, 35% of 18–34-year-olds have benefitted themselves or know someone who has.

At the same time, 84% of BC families with young children report that long waiting lists for child care are still a problem. This is not surprising as there are only enough licensed child care spaces for 23%^[4] of young children in BC. 43% of families with young children reported that they had to wait more than 6 months for child care.

Overall, 70% of British Columbians with young children say that government has made child care more affordable for their family, and 88% confirm that they would like to have access to $10aDay child care.

Highlights

The poll asked British Columbians to consider 17 $10aDay policy recommendations. While the results show that support drops slightly for older age groups, and men relative to women, overall, the recommendations were broadly supported (see charts below).

Specifically,

84% of British Columbians agree it’s important for Early Childhood Educators to earn fair wages for their important work.
81% agree that all elementary schools should provide before and after school care for the children in that school.
75% agree that Indigenous children should have access to culturally safe child care programs.
72% agree that child care should be publicly available like elementary schools.
71% agree that BC cannot create and staff more child care programs without ensuring fair compensation for Early Childhood Educators.
67% agree that, with substantial public funds being invested, government should ensure child care programs are non-profit.

Furthermore,

90% of young people (aged 18-34) think it’s important to keep building the $10aDay child care system, and 58% say this issue will be vote-determining for them in the upcoming BC election.

Among older British Columbians,
90% think it’s important for Early Childhood Educators to earn fair wages.
78% think BC’s child care system should help parents who work non-traditional schedules.
76% agree that all new child care facilities in BC should be built to be climate resilient.

$10aDay child care is a vote-determining issue for nearly half the population (45%), which is far more than the percent of the population who presently needs child care for young children.

On affordability,

85% of British Columbians – and 88% of those over 55 – agree that having children now costs a lot more than it did 40 years ago.
82% agree child care is important to support working parents.
80% agree that single parents have a better opportunity to work when there’s access to quality flexible $10aDay child care.
78% confirm that when child care is affordable and available, more mothers can work and pay taxes.

On the economic impacts of child care,

78% of British Columbians agree that employers benefit from investments in child care because more parents can go to work.
78% agree that investing in child care is beneficial to the economy.
67%of parents with recent child care experience said a parent had to remain away from work for a longer period following the end of parental leave because child care was unavailable..

These poll results confirm what we hear from families, educators, and communities across BC. Public support for $10aDay Child Care remains very strong and consistent.

When asked what they knew about $10aDay child care, one respondent summarized the general sentiment expressed throughout this provincial poll, saying “it’s been in the works for some time, and we need to get it done”.

The Coalition of Child Care Advocates of BC gratefully acknowledges the support of Employment and Social Development Canada.

[1] Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from March 21 to March 23, 2024, among 803 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender, and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

In this survey, we asked questions related to child care (sometimes referred to as childcare, daycare or preschool). For the purpose of this survey, child care is defined as the caring and supervision of a child 0-12 years old that is performed by a person other than the child’s legal guardians for part of or all of a day. The care may take place in a licensed/regulated setting or in an unregulated and informal setting.

Consult the data tables here and here.

[2] See summary of 2019 survey here.

[3] Data as of March 2024, as reported by the BC Government’s child care data dashboard, accessed May 23, 2024 (calculation:13,571 $10aDay spaces / 148,383 total spaces participating in government programs). On March 28, 2024 the BC Government announced the total number of $10aDay spaces would be increasing to 15,300 in April, 2024.

[4] Calculation: 148,383 total spaces (as cited above) divided by the government-projected 2024 population of children 0-12 (accessed May 23, 2024).

Download the press release here.

A New Leader Would Not Make BC United More Competitive

May 24, 2024May 20, 2024By Mario Canseco

British Columbians react well to Christy Clark and Dianne Watts, but the party would still trail the NDP and the Conservatives.

Vancouver, BC [May 24, 2024] – The re-emergence of two well-known politicians would slightly help BC United in an election year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample asked British Columbians how they would vote in an election with 14 different options leading BC United.

Christy Clark and Dianne Watts post the best numbers, attracting 18% of decided voters to BC United—a six-point increase from the current standing of the party under Kevin Falcon.

Clark, who served as Premier and BC Liberal leader from 2011 to 2017, would still position BC United in third place, behind the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (35%) and the Conservative Party of BC (26%).

Under Watts, a former Mayor of Surrey and former Member of Parliament for the Conservative Party who finished second in the 2018 BC Liberal leadership race, BC United also trails the BC New Democrats (36%) and the BC Conservatives (24%).

“Just under one-in-five British Columbians who are willing to vote for the BC Conservatives (17%) would back BC United with Dianne Watts as leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Watts would put BC United in second place, behind the BC NDP, among decided voters aged 55 and over (43% to 24%).”

Two other candidates are ahead of Falcon’s current numbers: Vancouver-Langara MLA Michael Lee, who finished third in the BC Liberal leadership races of 2018 and 2022 (14%) and Gavin Dew, who finished fifth in the 2022 BC Liberal leadership election (13%).

Three candidates who sought the leadership of the BC Liberals would have the same level of support commanding BC United that Falcon currently has (12%): sixth place leadership finisher in 2022 Renee Merrifield, fourth place finisher in 2011 Mike de Jong and sixth place finisher in 2018 Sam Sullivan.

Support from decided voters would be lower for BC United under seven other candidates: second place leadership finisher in 2022 Ellis Ross (11%), current Mayor of Vancouver Ken Sim (also 11%), former BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson (also 11%), fourth place finisher in 2018 Todd Stone (10%), seventh place finisher in 2022 Stan Sipos (also 10%), fifth place finisher in 2022 Val Litwin (9%) and Aaron Gunn, who was disqualified from participating in the 2022 BC Liberal leadership race (also 9%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from May 13 to May 15, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

NDP First, Conservatives Rise, United Plummets in British Columbia

May 21, 2024May 20, 2024By Mario Canseco

Just over a third of British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals in 2020 are staying with BC United in 2024.

Vancouver, BC [May 21, 2024] – Five months before voters in British Columbia take part in a provincial election, the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of the opposition Conservative Party of BC, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 42% of decided voters (-3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2024) would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 32% (+5) would cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives.

BC United—currently the official opposition in the Legislative Assembly—is tied for third place with the BC Green Party (each with 12%). Support for BC United has dropped by three points in a month, while the BC Greens have gained one point. Other parties and independent candidates are supported by 2% of decided voters (+1).

“In May 2023, a third of decided voters in British Columbia (33%) were supporting BC United,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A year later, the proportion has fallen by 21 points.”

Only 35% of decided voters who supported the BC Liberals in the 2020 provincial election under leader Andrew Wilkinson are staying with BC United in 2024. More than two-in-five (44%) are now backing the BC Conservatives, while more than one-in-ten (12%) would cast a ballot for the BC NDP.

The BC New Democrats hold leads over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (40% to 30%) and Vancouver Island (49% to 29%). The races are closer in the Fraser Valley (NDP 40%, Conservatives 39%), Southern BC (NDP 39%, Conservatives 37%) and Northern BC (Conservatives 40%, NDP 38%).

Across the province, the BC Conservatives are ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39% to 34%). The BC New Democrats lead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (38% to 33%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (50% to 26%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the BC New Democrats (53%. -1) or the BC Conservatives (42%, +1) in the provincial election. The proportions are lower for the BC Greens (35%, -2) and BC United (33%, -4).

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, +3) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (21%, =), the economy and jobs (15%, -3), the environment (5%, -1) and crime and public safety (also 5%, =).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 54% this month (+3). The numbers are lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (37%, +2), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -2) and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (31%, -5).

The notion of BC United and the Conservative Party of BC merging into a single party before the next provincial election is backed by 33% of British Columbians (-6). Fewer than half of decided voters currently supporting the BC Conservatives (49%, -5) or BC United (47%, -6) are on board.

Rustad is regarded as a better leader than Falcon to attract male voters (29% to 17%), voters aged 35-to-54 (25% to 22%), voters aged 55 and over (34% to 17%), voters in the Fraser Valley (27% to 19%), voters in Southern BC (23% to 20%), voters in Northern BC (30% to15%) and voters in Vancouver Island (24% to 17%) to his party.

The BC Conservative leader is also regarded as having a better chance to serve as opposition leader after the next provincial election (26% to 23%) or form the government (24% to 19%) than Falcon.

Falcon is ahead of Rustad on attracting female voters (21% to 17%) and voters in Metro Vancouver (24% to 21%) to BC United. The two leaders are tied (at 20% each) on attracting voters aged 18-to-34 to their respective parties.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Happy with FIFA World Cup in Vancouver

May 1, 2024May 2, 2024By Mario Canseco

Almost half of the province’s residents would explore a bid for Vancouver to host the Summer Olympics in 2036.

Vancouver, BC [May 1, 2024] – Public satisfaction with Vancouver being a host city during the FIFA (Soccer) 2026 Men’s World Cup has increased across British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 68% of British Columbians agree with the designation, up six points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in November 2022.

Vancouver is one of 16 cities that will host matches during the FIFA (Soccer) 2026 Men’s World Cup, which is being held in Canada, the United States and Mexico. BC Place in Vancouver will be the venue for seven matches, including two featuring Team Canada on June 18 and June 24, 2026.

“Seven-in-ten Metro Vancouverites (70%) appear satisfied with the FIFA World Cup coming to Vancouver,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of residents across all other regions of the province are also in favour.”

More than half of British Columbians (55%, -2) continue to endorse the decision of the provincial government to abandon the 2030 Winter Olympics bid that was being explored by Four Host First Nations—Musqueam, Squamish, Tsleil-Waututh, and Lilwat—and the municipal governments of Vancouver and Whistler.

More than half of British Columbians who voted for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (63%), the BC Green Party (62%) and the BC Liberals (52%) in the 2020 provincial election believe the government made the right decision on the proposed Winter Games bid.

Vancouver hosted the XXI Olympic Winter Games, from February 12 to February 28, 2010.

Almost half of British Columbians (49%, +7) think Vancouver should launch a bid to host the Summer Olympics in 2036, while 40% (-5) disagree and 11% (-1) are undecided.

A Vancouver bid for the 2036 Summer Olympics is welcomed by more than three-in-five British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (61%). Enthusiasm is lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (48%) and aged 55 and over (42%).

Almost half of British Columbians (47%, +9) say they have positive views on FIFA, while a majority (53%, +12) feel the same way about the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from April 15 to April 17, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.