Almost half of likely voters (47%, +5 since mid-October) believe Lorne Doerkson is a “premier-in-waiting”.
Vancouver, BC [October 23, 2026] – The opposition Conservative Party of BC heads to tomorrow’s provincial election in British Columbia as the frontrunner, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided likely voters would back the BC Conservatives (= since a similar poll conducted in mid-October, while 40% (-2) would support the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP).
The BC Green Party is in third place with 10% (+2), followed by OneBC with 2% (+1) and Centre BC also with 2% (-3). The level of undecided voters has dropped from 15% to 10%.
The BC Conservatives lead the BC New Democrats among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (43% to 34%) and aged 55 and over (48% to 41%). The two parties are tied—at 41% each—among decided voters aged 35-to-54.
The BC Conservatives hold a six-point advantage over the BC NDP among male decided voters (45% to 39%) and are three points ahead among female decided voters (43% to 40%).
The BC NDP has its best showing among decided voters on Vancouver Island (46%), while the BC Conservatives are in first place in the Fraser Valley (58%), Northern BC (51%) and Southern BC (48%). In Metro Vancouver, the BC Conservatives are four points ahead of the BC New Democrats (45% to 41%).
“In the final week of the campaign, the BC Conservatives are keeping 87% of their voters from the 2024 provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is lower for the BC NDP at 78% and for the BC Greens at 61%.”
Just over three-in-five Liberal voters from the 2025 Canadian federal election (61%) will vote for the BC NDP In the provincial ballot. The governing party is also backed by 80% of federal NDP voters from last year, while the BC Conservatives are supported by 84% of federal Conservative voters.
Almost nine-in-ten decided voters in British Columbia (89%) are certain of their current selection, while 11% could change their mind and choose a different party or candidate tomorrow.
Almost one-in-five BC Green decided voters (19%) could alter their vote. The proportions is significantly lower among those currently backing the BC NDP (7%) or the BC Conservatives (also 7%).
The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby dropped to 44% (-5). BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson and BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan are now ahead of Eby on this indicator (48%, +3 and 46%, +7 respectively). The numbers are lower for Centre BC leader Elenore Sturko (26%, =) and OneBC leader Dallas Brodie (25%, -1).
Two-in-five likely voters (40%) say their opinion of Eby has worsened since the start of the campaign, while 15% say it has improved. This gives Eby a momentum score of -25.
The momentum scores are negative for Brodie (-8) and Sturko (-7) as the campaign draws to a close. Lowan and Doerkson remain the only leaders with a positive momentum score (+9 and +3 respectively).
The two main party leaders are now tied when likely voters ponder who would make the “Best Premier” for British Columbia: 34% select Eby (-2) and 34% choose Doerkson (+9). Lowan is third with 11% (+4), followed by Brodie (3%, =) and Sturko (2%, -2).
Just under three-in-ten likely voters in British Columbia (28%, +3) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, =), health care (20%, -1), crime and public safety (7%, -2) and government accountability (also 7%, =).
Doerkson is regarded as the best person to handle five issues: crime and public safety (35% to 25% for Eby), managing the province’s finances (34% to 25%), government accountability (32% to 26%), creating jobs (32% to 29%) and energy (31% to 29%).
Eby is ahead of Doerkson on three issues: dealing with the federal government (33% to 29%), health care (32% to 27%) and education (31% to 27%).
The race is closer on six other issues: the economy and jobs (Doerkson 33%, Eby 31%), housing, homelessness and poverty (Eby 31%, Doerkson 29%) and seniors care (Eby 28%, Doerkson 27%).
The two main party leaders are tied on child care (25% each), dealing with municipal governments (30% each) and transportation projects (also 30% each).
Lowan is preferred on the environment (30%, with Doerkson at 22% and Eby at 19%).
Likely voters were asked if 11 character traits are embodied by three provincial party leaders in British Columbia. The results outline significant drops for Eby since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in October 2024, during the previous electoral campaign.
The best rated traits for Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (50%, -7), having a vision for the future of British Columbia (43%, -8) and understanding the problems of BC residents (41%, -9).
The proportions are lower on Eby being a strong and decisive leader (39%, -9), being in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (39%, -8), agreeing with people on issues they care about (38%, -9), being honest and trustworthy (36%, -9), sharing people’s values (36%, -7), being patronizing (35%, +4), inspiring confidence (34%, -11) and being a good economic manager (31%, -7).
At least two-in-five likely voters in British Columbia say Doerkson has a vision for the future of the province (47%, -2 when compared to the findings for previous BC Conservative leader John Rustad in October 2024), understands the problems of BC residents (45%, -3), is a good speaker and communicator (also 45%, +3), is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (43%, +3), is honest and trustworthy (40%, +6) and is a strong and decisive leader (also 40%, -2).
Fewer likely voters in British Columbia think Doerkson shares their values (39%, -5), agrees with them on issues they care about (39%, +2), inspires confidence (38%, +2), is a good economic manager (also 38%, -1) and is patronizing (31%, -14).
More than a third of likely voters in British Columbia think Lowan is honest and trustworthy (38%, -4 when compared to the findings for previous BC Green leader Sonia Furstenau in October 2024), is a good speaker and communicator (37%, -7), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (36%, -5) and understands the problems of BC residents (35%, -5).
Fewer likely voters say Lowan is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (33%, -6), agrees with them on issues they care about (32%, -5), shares their values (30%, -6), inspires confidence (27%, -7), is a strong and decisive leader (25%, -5), is a good economic manager (20%, -4) and is patronizing (18%, -1).
Just under half likely voters in British Columbia (47%, +5) believe Doerkson is a “premier-in-waiting”. Smaller proportions of likely voters say the province needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives (44%, +2), regard the Conservative Party of BC as a “free enterprise coalition” (40%, +3) or think it is time to bring back the BC Liberals as a provincial political party (39%, =).
Half of likely voters in British Columbia (50%, +1) say they would be “very upset” if the BC NDP forms the government after tomorrow’s election. The proportion of likely voters who would be “very upset” if the next government is assembled by the BC Conservatives ss slightly smaller (47%, -2).
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 21 to October 23, 2026, among 802 likely voters in British Columbia, including 722 decided voters in the 2026 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca