Public Policy – Page 5

One-in-Four Canadians Flirt with Province Joining the USA

December 20, 2024January 8, 2025By Mario Canseco

More than three-in-ten Canadians think their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa.

Vancouver, BC [December 20, 2024] – The proportion of Canadians who believe their province would benefit from becoming an American state has increased over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, just over one-in-four Canadians (26%) think their province would be better off joining the U.S. and becoming an American state, up eight points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2023.

The notion of a province benefitting from becoming the 51st State resonates most in Alberta (30%), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (29%), Ontario (also 29%), Quebec (24%), Atlantic Canada (24%) and British Columbia (18%).

“The appeal of a province joining the United States varies greatly by age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 10% of Canadians aged 55 and over perceive benefits, the proportion rises to 27% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 40% among those aged 18-to-34.”

Just over three-in-ten Canadians (31%, +7) believe their province would be better off as its own country. More than a third of residents of Alberta (38%) and Quebec (35%) share this view.

The survey outlines a significant level of animosity towards the federal and provincial heads of government across the country. More than three-in-five Canadians (61%, +9) believe their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa.

Two thirds of Albertans (67%) and Ontarians (66%) think their province would benefit from having someone other than Justin Trudeau in charge of the federal government. Majorities of residents of Atlantic Canada (64%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%), British Columbia (57%) and Quebec (53%) concur.

Canadians aged 35-to-54 are more likely to think that their province would benefit from a change in Ottawa (65%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (62%) and those aged 55 and over (56%).

Most Canadians (57%) think their province would be better off with a different premier in charge. This sentiment is more prevalent in Ontario (65%), Alberta (64%) and Quebec (57%). Fewer residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51%), Atlantic Canada (48%) and British Columbia (47%) feel the same way.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from December 13 to December 15, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Would Lower Speed Limit on Residential Streets

December 13, 2024December 12, 2024By Mario Canseco

The use of speed-on-green intersection cameras is endorsed by more than seven-in-ten of the province’s residents.

Vancouver, BC [December 13, 2024] – More than three-in-five British Columbians would personally like to see the speed limit reduced to 30 km/h on all residential streets in their own municipality, while keeping the speed limit on arterial and collector roads at 50 km/h, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 63% of British Columbians are in favour of this directive, up two points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in November 2023.

Support for reducing the speed limit to 30 km/h on all residential streets, while keeping the speed limit on arterial and collector roads at 50 km/h, is highest in Metro Vancouver (65%), followed by the Fraser Valley (62%), Northern BC (61%), Vancouver Island (59%) and Southern BC (58%).

In 2019, Vancouver City Council unanimously passed a motion to establish a pilot project to reduce the speed limit to 30 km/h on select residential streets in the city. The pilot project was first implemented in the Grandview-Woodland neighbourhood.

Just over two thirds of British Columbians (67%, -2) believe the pilot project in Vancouver is a “very good” or “good” idea—including 70% of Metro Vancouverites and 69% of residents of Southern BC.

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, -3) see a car that they perceive is circulating above the speed limit of 50 km/h on the street where they live “at least once a day”, while 30% (+2) experience this “a few times a week”.

The survey also asked British Columbians about automated speed enforcement, which works by using cameras or sensors to pick up a vehicle speeding. A ticket is then issued to the owner of the vehicle. Driver’s license points are not issued as the driver of the vehicle cannot be identified.

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians approve of three kinds of automated speed enforcement: speed-on-green intersection cameras, or red light cameras that also capture vehicles that are speeding through intersections (72%, =), fixed speed cameras, which stay in one location and measure speed as a vehicle passes (71%, -2), and point-to-point enforcement, which uses cameras at two or more distant points on a road to issue tickets to vehicles whose average speed over the distance was excessive (also 71%, +14).

“The use of speed-on-green cameras, which is currently in place in British Columbia, remains popular across the province,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of residents aged 18-to-34 (72%), aged 35-to-54 (also 72%) and aged 55 and over (also 72%) are in favour of this type of automated speed enforcement.”

More than three-in-five British Columbians approve of one other kind of automated speed enforcement: mobile speed cameras, which can be moved from place to place (64%, =).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 27 to November 29, 2024, among a representative sample of 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Almost Half in Canada and USA See Trump Followers as “Cult”

December 4, 2024December 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Residents of both countries are less critical when assessing people who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Vancouver, BC [December 4, 2024] – A significant proportion of Canadians and Americans hold a particularly negative view of followers of Donald Trump and the Republican Party, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, respondents in Canada and the United States were asked if it is far or unfair to refer to followers of specific people, parties and ideas as a cult.

A cult is often defined as a group which is typically led by a charismatic leader, who tightly controls its members, requiring unwavering devotion to a set of beliefs and practices which are considered outside the norms of society.

Almost half of Canadians (47%) and Americans (46%) think it is fair to refer to followers of the Republican Party and Donald Trump as a cult.

Half of Canadians aged 55 and over (50%) can describe followers of Trump and the Republicans as a cult. The numbers are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 18-to-34 (48%).

In the United States, respondents aged 55 and over are less likely to believe it is warranted for followers of Trump and the Republicans to be thought of as a cult (42%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (48%) and aged 35-to-54 (49%).

“Americans who describe themselves as Democrats (76%) and Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Paty (NDP) in 2021 (63% and 54% respectively) think it is fair to refer to followers of Trump and the Republicans as a cult,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among Republicans in the United States (41%) and Conservatives in Canada (40%).”

At least two-in-five Canadians (40%) and Americans (42%) think it is warranted to refer to people who participated in the protests and blockades against restrictions and mandates related to the COVID-19 pandemic as a cult. Slightly smaller proportions of Canadians and Americans (36% and 39% respectively) feel the same way about people who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

While 37% of Americans believe it is fair to refer to followers of the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris in the United States as a cult, the proportion drops to 30% in Canada. The results are similar for followers of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the United States (38% in the United States and 29% in Canada).

In Canada, at least a third of respondents believe it is warranted to refer to followers of the Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre (35%) and followers of the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau (33%) as cults, The proportions are lower for followers of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Jagmeet Singh (31%), followers of the People’s Party and Maxime Bernier (also 31%) and followers of the Green Party and Elizabeth May in Canada (26%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 8 to November 10, 2024, among 1,000 adults in Canada and 1,001 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for each country.

Find our data tables for Canada here, data tables for the United States here and download the press release here.

Canadians and Americans Clearly at Odds on Climate Change

November 20, 2024November 19, 2024By Mario Canseco

Residents of the United States are less likely to describe the current situation as a “major crisis” than their Canadian counterparts.

Vancouver, BC [November 20, 2024] – While just over three-in-five Canadians believe climate change is real and caused by human activity, the proportion of Americans who feel the same way has dwindled over the past two years, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, 61% of Canadians say climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in July 2023.

In the United States, just over half of residents (51%, -9 since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in August 2022) believe global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities.

About a quarter of Americans and Canadians (27% and 25% respectively) think climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by natural changes, while smaller proportions (12% in the United States and 10% in Canada) say global warming is a theory that has not been proven.

More than three-in-five Canadians (63%, =) describe climate change as a “major crisis”, compared to 55% of Americans (-5).

Fewer respondents in the two countries refer to global warming as a “minor crisis” (23% in the United States and 24% in Canada) or “not a crisis at all” (13% in the United States, 9% in Canada).

Americans who voted for Republican Party presidential nominee Donald Trump in 2024 are significantly more likely to say climate change is “not a crisis at all” (25%) than those who cast ballots for Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party (3%).

In Canada, fewer than one-in-twenty Canadians who supported the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the 2021 federal election (4% and 3% respectively) think climate change is “not a crisis at all”. Among those who voted for Conservative Party candidates, the proportion rises to 21%.

Majorities of Canadians and Americans believe three entities should be doing more to deal with issues related to climate change that are happening or impacting people directly now: companies and corporations (71% in Canada and 63% in the United States), governments (64% in Canada and 62% in the United States) and individuals and consumers (55% in Canada and 58% in the United States).

The results are similar when Canadians and Americans are asked about issues related to climate change that may happen or impact people directly in the future. Majorities believe governments (69% in Canada and 63% in the United States), companies and corporations (68% in Canada and 63% in the United States) and consumers (57% in Canada and 58% in the United States) should be more active.

A final question asked Canadians and Americans about their willingness to pay higher taxes to adequately address seven issues.

More than half of Americans (55%) say they would be willing to pay higher taxes to deal with climate change. This includes three-in-four Democrats (76%), but significantly fewer Independents (45%) and Republicans (42%).

More than half of Americans expressed a willingness to pay higher taxes to adequately address schools (66%), homelessness (62%), floods (57%), forest fires (56%), housing improvements (54%) and transit improvements (51%).

In Canada, 55% of respondents are also willing to pay more to deal with global warming. More than three-in-four Canadians who voted for the Liberals or the NDP In 2021 (66% and 64% respectively) agree on this issue, but only 45% of Conservative supporters concur.

Compared to Americans, Canadians are more reticent about paying higher taxes to adequately address schools (56%), forest fires (54%), housing improvements (53%), homelessness (53%), floods (52%) and transit improvements (47%).

Find our data tables for Canada here, data tables for the United States here and download the press release here.

Most Canadians Would Restrain Residential School Denialism

November 6, 2024November 5, 2024By Mario Canseco

Respondents of all age groups want their own Member of Parliament to support the bill proposed by the NDP’s Leah Gazan.

Vancouver, BC [November 6, 2024] – Practically three-in-five Canadians back a proposal to criminalize residential school denialism, a new Research Co. poll has found.

Leah Gazan, a New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Parliament from Manitoba, recently introduced a private member’s bill in the House of Commons. The bill seeks to make it a Criminal Code offence to willfully promote hatred against Indigenous people by condoning, denying, justifying or minimizing the facts about residential schools.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 59% of Canadians want their own MP to vote in favour of Gazan’s bill, while 24% would prefer for their elected representative to vote against it.

“Support for criminalizing residential school denialism is highest among NDP (77%) and Liberal Party (67%) voters in 2021,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer than half of Conservative Party voters in the last federal election (46%) concur.”

The level of support for Gazan’s bill is similar among Canadians aged 18-to-34 (60%), aged 35-to-54 (59%) and aged 55 and over (58%).

Majorities of Canadians whose desscent is Indigenous (69%), South Asian (65%), East Asian (61%) and European (59%) want their elected representative to support the Gazan’s bill.

This survey confirms the findings of a Research Co. poll conducted in August 2020, which focused on the way Canadians learned about residential schools.

Almost half of Canadians who attended Elementary School and/or High School in Canada (48%) say they did not hear about residential schools at all during their time as students.

Canadians aged 55 and over who attended Elementary School and/or High School in Canada are less likely to have learned about residential schools in the classroom (70%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (51%) and aged 18-to-34 (26%).

Looking back at what they were told as students in Canada, 41% of these respondents say the assessment of residential schools provided by their teachers at the time was positive, while 36% recall it as negative.

The perceptions of these respondents are very different now, with 54% saying they currently view residential schools in a negative light, and 34% saying their opinion is positive.

More than half of Canadians aged 18-to-34 (58%) and aged 55 and over (52%) who attended Elementary School and/or High School in Canada now have a negative view of residential schools.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 21 to October 23, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: TheGoodAndHolyLord

Americans Staunchly Divided in Close Presidential Race

November 4, 2024November 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Similar proportions of likely voters say they will be “upset” if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win the contest.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2024] – The race for the White House is in a statistical tie at the national level, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 50% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early October) would support Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris or have already voted for her, while 48% (+1) would cast a ballot for Donald Trump of the Republican Party.

Trump leads Harris among male decided voters (54% to 44%), while Harris is ahead of Trump among female decided voters (56% to 42%).

The Democratic nominee remains ahead in the Northeast (57% to 41%) and the West (56% to 41%). The Republican contender holds the upper hand in the South (53% to 46%) and the Midwest (51% to 47%).

Harris remains the preferred candidate for decided voters who are African American (75%) or Hispanic / Latino (60%), while Trump is the first choice for white decided voters (57%).

“Whoever emerges victorious in the American presidential election will inherit an extremely polarized electorate,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Significant proportions of Americans claim they will be very upset if Trump (50%) or Harris (49%) win the election.”

The main motivator for American decided voters is the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (40%), followed by the candidate’s political party (21%), a desire for change (18%), a desire for stability (14%) and disgust with other contenders (10%).

Across the United States, 47% of likely voters expect a clear or close win for Harris in the presidential election, while 42% believe Trump will experience a clear or close win.

Just over two-in-five American likely voters (41%) expect to witness the winning candidate declare victory on Election Night (Nov. 5), but only 25% foresee a concession speech from the defeated candidate on that same night.

American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential nominees is best suited to manage 13 different issues.

Trump holds the upper hand over Harris on five issues: immigration (50% to 40%), national defense (50% to 40%), energy and oil (48% to 40%), the economy (48% to 44%) and foreign policy (47% to 42%).

Harris is ahead of Trump on four issues: health care (52% to 37%), the environment (51% to 35%), race relations (51% to 35%) and education (51% to 37%).

The two candidates are tied or virtually tied on four other issues: job creation (Harris 45%, Trump 45%), government accountability (Harris 44%, Trump 43%), managing the deficit (Trump 43%, Harris 42%) and crime (Trump 46%, Harris 43%),

President Joe Biden heads to the final stages of his term with an approval rating of 45% (+1). While just over four-in-five Democrats are satisfied with Biden’s performance (81%), the proportions are decidedly lower among Independents (36%) and Republicans (11%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2024, among 1,003 likely voters in the United States and 962 decided voters in the 2024 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here, and download the press release here.

Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race

November 4, 2024November 3, 2024By Mario Canseco

Democrats will win the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Washington; Republicans will achieve the “double” in Missouri.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2024] – On the eve of the 2024 United States Presidential Election, new polls conducted by Research Co. point to Republican victories in two states and Democratic wins in six others. In three battleground states, the two candidates remain within the margin of error of each other.

California

The last Republican presidential nominee to carry California was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Democrat Joe Biden defeated Republican Donald Trump in 2020, with 63% of all cast ballots. This year, Kamala Harris holds a 33-point advantage over Trump among decided voters (65% to 32%).

Voters in the Golden State are also set to send Democrat Adam Schiff to the U.S. Senate. Schiff holds commanding leads over Republican Steve Garvey (64% to 36% in the Special Election, and 62% to 38% in the Regular Election).

There is also majority support in California for two propositions that are on the ballot in 2024: Proposition 3 or “Constitutional Right to Marriage” (68%) and Proposition 36 or “Allows Felony Charges and Increases Sentences for Certain Drug and Theft Crimes” (69%).

Florida

In this century, the only Democratic nominee who carried the Sunshine State was Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump won Florida in 2016 with 49% of the vote and in 2020 with 51% of the vote.

This year, Trump is ahead of Harris in Florida (52% to 46%). In the U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Rick Scott is ahead of Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (52% to 45%).

Michigan

In 2016, Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.6% to 47.8%) to secure Michigan’s 16 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Michigan has 15 Electoral Votes.

Harris heads to Election Day with a four-point edge over Trump (51% to 47%). The lead is slightly larger for Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin against Republican challenger Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race (52% to 46%).

Minnesota

No Republican presidential nominee has carried the Great Lakes State since Richard Nixon in 1972. In 2024, Harris leads Trump by eight points (53% to 45%).

In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent democrat Amy Klobuchar is significantly ahead of Republican challenger Royce White (57% to 40%).

Missouri

Since 1968, the Democratic nominee for president has won the Show Me State three times: once under Jimmy Carter in 1976 and twice under Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. This year, Trump holds the upper hand over Harris (56% to 41%).

There is also majority support in Missouri for incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Josh Hawley against Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce (54% to 43%) and for Republican gubernatorial contender Mike Kehoe against Democrat Crystal Quade (56% to 41%).

New Jersey

In 1992, Bill Clinton ended a streak of six consecutive elections in which Republican presidential candidates carried the Garden State. The Democratic nominee has won New Jersey in every presidential election since. This year, Harris is 17 points ahead of Trump (58% to 41%).

In the race to the U.S. Senate, Democratic contender Andy Kim leads Republican candidate Curtis Bashaw (58% to 40%). Longtime U.S. Senator Bob Menendez—who resigned earlier this year following his conviction on charges of bribery, extortion, honest services fraud, obstruction of justice and conspiracy—abandoned his independent bid in August.

New York

In 1984, Ronald Reagan was the last Republican nominee to carry the Empire State in a presidential election. Trump—who was born in New York City—received 37% of the vote in 2016 and 38% of the vote in 2020, losing to Hillary Clinton (59%) and Joe Biden (61%) respectively. This year, Trump trails Harris by a smaller margin heading into Election Day (58% to 42%).

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand holds a significant lead over Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone (64% to 34%).

Pennsylvania

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush in 1988, defeating Clinton by 44,292 votes (48.2% to 47.5%).

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.0% to 48.8%) to capture Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Pennsylvania has 19 Electoral Votes.

There is no change in the perception of decided voters in Pennsylvania since our look at this race in early October. Harris remains statistically tied with Trump (50% to 49%). The lead is also small for incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. in his race against David McCormick of the Republican Party (50% to 48%).

Virginia

From 1968 to 2004, only Republican presidential candidates won the Old Dominion State. In 2008, Barack Obama began a run of four consecutive presidential ballots in which Virginia has been carried by Democrats. In 2024, Harris appears ready to extend this streak, with a six-point lead over Trump (52% to 46%).

In the U.S. Senate election, incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine is ahead of Republican contender Hung Cao (56% to 44%).

Washington

No Republican presidential nominee has won the Evergreen State since Reagan in 1984. Forty years later, Harris heads to Election Day with a significant lead over Trump (57% to 41%).

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell is ahead of Republican contender Raul Garcia (60% to 40%). Democrat Bob Ferguson leads Republican Dave Reichert in the state’s gubernatorial race (57% to 42%).

Wisconsin

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, defeating Clinton by 22,748 votes 47.2% to 46.5%).

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (49.4% to 48.8%) to win Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, Wisconsin will continue to have 10 Electoral Votes.

Compared to October, Harris has a larger advantage over Trump (51% to 47%). The U.S. Senate race is closer, with incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin slightly ahead of Republican candidate Eric Hovde (50% to 48%).

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2024, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in 11 American states: California, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Almost Half of Canadians Still Hoping for Senate Reform

November 1, 2024October 31, 2024By Mario Canseco

Only 12% of Canadians have met a sitting Senator, while at least one-in-four have met mayors, councillors or MPs.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2024] – A significantly low proportion of Canadians express satisfaction with the status quo related to the upper house, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, only 7% of Canadians say the country needs a Senate and the current guidelines that call for appointed senators should not be modified, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2022.

More than a quarter of Canadians (27%, +3) think Canada does not need a Senate and want all legislation to be reviewed and authorized by the House of Commons. Almost half (48%, +3) believe Canada needs a Senate, but Canadians should be allowed to take part in the process to choose senators.

Support for a type of Senate reform that would allow for the participation of Canadians is highest in Alberta (59%). More than two-in-five residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51%), Ontario (47%), British Columbia (also 47%), Quebec (46%) and Atlantic Canada (44%) share this view.

When asked to choose between four different options for the Red Chamber, just under two-in-five Canadians (38%, +5) support reforming the Senate to allow for the direct election of senators.

Fewer than one-in-five Canadians prefer any of the other three options tested: having a selection committee that would appoint non-partisan senators (18%, +1), abolishing the Senate of Canada altogether (also 18%, +4) and the Prime Minister appointing senators (11%, +5).

“Support for the abolition of the Senate of Canada, in spite of its unique complexities, is highest among Canadians aged 55 and over (30%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer Canadians aged 35-to-54 (16%) and aged 18-to-34 (6%) feel the same way.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has only named senators that were recommended by an arm’s-length advisory body and not directly appointed by him.

Canadians are split on this decision, with 32% (+4), saying Trudeau’s changes have made the Senate “better”, 27% (-4) claiming the changes have had no effect, and 28% (+8) saying the situation is now worse.

Just over half of respondents (51%, -5) expect Canadians to one day be able to directly elect their senators, while 28% (+5) disagree with this notion.

Canadians aged 18-to-34 are more likely to believe that one day Canada will have direct elections to the Senate (62%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (55%) and aged 55 and over (37%).

Respondents were asked if they have met sitting political leaders during the course of their lives. While at least a quarter of Canadians have met a mayor (31%), councillor (27%), Member of Parliament (26%) or member of their provincial legislature (25%), only 12% have crossed paths with a sitting senator.

Residents of Quebec (17%) are more likely to have met a sitting senator than their counterparts in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (15%), Atlantic Canada (14%) British Columbia (11%), Alberta (also 11%) and Ontario (8%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: abdallahh

Late Surge Gives Saskatchewan Its Closest Election Since 2003

October 27, 2024November 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

On the “Best Premier” question, Scott Moe and Carla Beck are separated by just four points.

Vancouver, BC [October 27, 2024] – Voters in Saskatchewan head to tomorrow’s provincial election with the two main parties locked in a statistical tie, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 48% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency, while 46% would support the governing Saskatchewan Party. Across Saskatchewan, 5% of decided voters would back other parties or independent candidates.

Since the previous Research Co. survey conducted in early October, province-wide support for the NDP has risen by five points, while backing for the Saskatchewan Party has dropped by the same margin.

Among male decided voters, the Saskatchewan Party has an eight-point lead over the NDP (52% to 44%). The NDP is now ahead of the Saskatchewan Party among female decided voters (51% to 42%).

The race is extremely close among decided voters aged 55 and over (Sask. Party 46%, NDP 45%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (49% for each party). The NDP is in first place among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (55% to 40%).

On a regional basis, the NDP holds the upper hand in Regina (59% to 37%) and Saskatoon (56% to 41%). The Saskatchewan Party remains ahead in the rest of the province (62% to 30%).

“The retention rate for the Saskatchewan Party has dropped from 85% in early October to 71% on the eve of the election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP has been stable on this indicator, with 91% of those who voted for the opposition party in 2020 saying they will remain there this year.”

As was the case in the early stage of the campaign, more than half of likely voters have a positive opinion of the performance of both Official Opposition and NDP leader Carla Beck (56%, -2) and Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe (52%, also -2).

The numbers moved drastically on the “Best Premier” question. Moe is still favoured by just over two-in-five likely voters (44%, +2), but Beck is now just four points behind (40%, +11).

Beck posts a momentum score of +16 (35% of likely voters in Saskatchewan say their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign, while 19% say it has worsened). Moe posts a score of -11 (21% “improved”, 32% “worsened”).

Three-in-ten likely voters in Saskatchewan (30%, +3) identify health care as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, -3), the economy and jobs (19%, +1), crime and public safety (9%, -1), education (6%, +1), the environment (4%, +1) and accountability (3%, +1).

The Saskatchewan Party has won the last four provincial elections with more than half of all ballots cast (51% in 2007, 64% in 2011, 63% in 2016 and 61% in 2020). The last election where a party formed the government without a majority of the vote was 2003, when the NDP secured 45% of the vote and 30 of the 58 seats at stake.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 25 to October 27, 2024, among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 474 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.5 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Tundraski

Most Canadians Still Regard Marijuana Legalization Favourably

October 23, 2024October 28, 2024By Mario Canseco

Only half of cannabis users are acquiring “all” of their product at licensed retailers in their provinces.

Vancouver, BC [October 23, 2024] – While most Canadians continue to endorse the legalization of marijuana, only half of consumers acknowledge that all of their product was acquired at a licensed retailer in the past six years, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 62% of Canadians (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2023) agree with marijuana being legal in Canada, while 33% disagree and 4% are undecided.

Agreement with legal cannabis in Canada is highest in Quebec (66%), followed by Alberta (64%), Ontario (also 64%), British Columbia (60%), Atlantic Canada (56%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (53%).

Canadians of Indigenous or European origins are more likely to support the legalization of marijuana (75% and 67% respectively) than their counterparts of South Asian or East Asian descent (57% and 45% respectively).

“Over the past four years, the legalization of marijuana has consistently been endorsed by more than three-in-five Canadians,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In 2024, opposition has risen to 33% for the first time.”

More than half of Canadians (52%) say they have not consumed marijuana in Canada, while one third (33%) tried it before it was legal and 14% only did so after legalization.

Just over half of Canadians who have consumed marijuana since October 2018 (51%) say all of their product was acquired at a licensed retailer, while 40% say that “most”, “some” or “none” of their cannabis was bought this way.

More than half of marijuana consumers in Alberta (55%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 55%) and Ontario (53%) say all of their cannabis was bought at a licensed retailer. The proportions are lower in Quebec (49%), Atlantic Canada (47%) and British Columbia (39%).

More than three-in-five Canadians (63%, +5) think companies in Canada should be able to administer “drug tests” to any employee now that marijuana is legal.

The concept of “drug tests” at businesses is endorsed by 66% of Canadians aged 55 and over, 63% of those aged 18-to-34 and 60% of those aged 35-to-54.

Almost three-in-four Canadians (74%, +5) agree with the federal government providing expungement orders to people convicted of possession of cannabis for personal use with no intent to traffic.

Majorities of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party (82%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (77%) and the Conservative Party (75%) in the 2021 federal election are in favour of the strategy to destroy or remove any judicial record of a conviction for possession of cannabis for personal use with no intent to traffic.

As was the case last year, few Canadians are willing to legalize other drugs, including ecstasy (15%, +3), powder cocaine (14%, +2), heroin (12%, +2), crack cocaine (also 12%, +2), methamphetamine or “crystal meth” (also 12%, +3) or fentanyl (10%, +1).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 13 to October 15, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

How British Columbia Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

October 21, 2024October 31, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most voters knew who they were going to vote for before the official start of the campaign.

Vancouver, BC [October 21, 2024] – The 2024 British Columbia provincial election was close all the way. In the four surveys conducted by Research Co. in September and October—after BC United suspended its campaign—the totals for the three main parties, as well as the proportion of decided voters who were considering independents or other political organizations, fluctuated by three percentage points or less.

The province is now in a scenario similar to the one experienced in 2017. Nobody has enough seats to command the Legislative Assembly. The governing party is currently slightly ahead of the opposition challengers on both seats and vote totals.

Our “Exit Poll” helps explain the lack of movement in the final stages of the democratic process. More than half of voters in British Columbia (53%) told us they made up their minds on which party or candidate to vote for prior to the official start of the campaign on September 21. This includes majorities of those who supported the ruling BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (57%) and the upstart Conservative Party of BC (54%). Placing the spotlight on specific candidates for things they said or posted online in the final days of the campaign did not matter much.

On a regional basis, the two areas with the highest proportions of “late deciders” are the Fraser Valley (25%) and Metro Vancouver (23%). In stark contrast, almost two thirds of Northern BC voters (65%) were set on their choice before the campaign began, making things significantly more complicated for independent candidates.

Similar proportions of British Columbians made their choice in the first weeks of the campaign (19%) or after the televised debate (20%). A larger proportion of voters ultimately chose the BC Greens in the final stage (27%) than the BC NDP (21%) or the Conservatives (17%).

The key motivators for BC NDP voters were the party’s ideas and policies (48%), the party’s leader (24%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%) and a desire for stability (also 10%). Supporters of the BC Conservatives were persuaded by the party’s ideas and policies (43%), a desire for change (22%), the party’s leader (21%) and the party’s candidate in the riding (10%).

This finding explains the current state of affairs. More than one-in-five Conservatives yearned for change, and just one-in-ten New Democrats voted for stability. On change as a fundamental motivator, the BC Conservatives are just between the Manitoba New Democrats in 2023 (33%) and the Alberta New Democrats in the same year (9%). One of these parties formed a majority government, and the other did not.

The province awaits in a polarized state. Voters are more likely to say they would welcome majority (52%) or minority (48%) governments headed by the BC NDP than majority (43%) or minority (34%) administrations headed by the BC Conservatives. They are also more likely to think the BC NDP ran a positive campaign (55%) than the BC Greens (51%) or the BC Conservatives (43%).

A different type of coalescing of the “free enterprise movement” would have had other ramifications. Only 30% of voters would have backed the Conservatives if Kevin Falcon had been their leader instead of John Rustad. The proportions are lower for Christy Clark (27%), the last leader of the BC Liberals who formed a government. Falcon receives a resounding “No” from voters aged 55 and over, with 54% “strongly disagreeing” that his leadership of the BC Conservatives would have enticed them.

As was the case in 2005, 2009 and 2017, two provincial parties in British Columbia each received more than 40 per cent of the vote. When we pose the scenario of future coalitions, the reaction is mixed. Only 35% of voters think the Conservative Party of BC and BC United should consider a formal merger into a single provincial political party, including 55% of those who cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives in this year’s election. Support is higher (44%) for a merger encompassing the BC NDP and the BC Green Party, an idea backed by 67% of New Democrats and 49% of Greens.

The 2017 election ultimately ended with the resignation of Premier Clark and the formation of a government headed by BC NDP leader John Horgan, with support from the BC Greens. At this point, British Columbians are ready to see what develops in the Legislative Assembly with two familiar faces. Similar minorities believe Eby and Rustad should resign as leaders (42% and 43% respectively) if they fail to form the government. Their bases, however, are staunchly behind them. Almost two thirds of NDP voters (65%) believe Eby should stay put, and a majority of BC Conservatives (53%) want Rustad to remain at the helm of his party.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 19 and October 20, 2024, among 700 adults in British Columbia who voted in the 2024 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

No Major Movement in Final Stages of British Columbia Campaign

October 18, 2024October 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is three points ahead of the opposition Conservative Party of BC.

Vancouver, BC [October 18, 2024] – The perceptions of likely voters in British Columbia did not go through a major shift in the final week of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters—as well as British Columbians who have already voted by mail or in the advance polls—support the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding, while 41% back the Conservative Party of BC. The BC Green Party remains in third place with 12%, and 3% of decided voters would vote for independent candidates or other parties.

Compared to the previous Research Co. poll conducted in mid-October, the province-wide results see the New Democrats shedding one point and the Greens gaining one point.

On a regional basis, the New Democrats remain ahead of the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (49% to 40%) and Vancouver Island (45% to 33%, with the Greens at 20%).

The Conservatives have the upper-hand over the New Democrats in Northern BC (53% to 29%) and are three-points ahead in Southern BC (44% to 41%). The race is extremely close in the 10 Fraser Valley ridings, where the two main partes are tied with 47% each.

“The final poll of British Columbia’s provincial campaign continues to show a noticeable gender gap,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Women prefer the BC NDP over the BC Conservatives (46% to 37%), while men choose the opposition party over the governing one (45% to 41%).”

Decided voters aged 55 and over favour the BC NDP (51% to 37%), while their counterparts aged 18-to-34 give the BC Conservatives the edge (46% to 35%). The two parties are tied with 42% among decided voters aged 35-to-54.

Most decided voters who supported the BC Liberals in the 2020 election (63%) are backing the BC Conservatives in 2024. However, just one-in-four of these voters (25%) are now favouring the BC New Democrats.

Housing, homelessness and poverty remains the most important issue for likely voters in British Columbia (40%, -1), followed by health care (23%, +1), the economy and jobs (15%, -1), crime and public safety (6%, -1) and the environment (4%, =).

At the end of the campaign, the approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 53% (=). The numbers are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (50%, +5) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (42%, =).

Furstenau once again posts a positive momentum score (+12), with 24% of likely voters saying their impression of her has improved since the start of the campaign, and 12% claiming it has worsened. The momentum scores remain negative for the other two leaders (Eby at -4 and Rustad at -10).

Eby remains ahead on the “Best Premier” question, with 40% of likely voters (=) picking him for the province’s top political job, with 32% (+1) selecting Rustad. Furstenau is third with 14% (=), while 14% of likely voters (-1) are not sure.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 17 and October 18, 2024, among a representative sample of 803 likely voters in British Columbia, including 753 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Metro Vancouverites Blame Housing Crisis Mostly on Immigration

October 17, 2024October 16, 2024By Mario Canseco

Communities react differently to the possible construction of housing that is six storeys or higher on their block.

Vancouver, BC [October 17, 2024] – Just over two-in-five residents of Metro Vancouver believe the federal government has a role to play to alleviate the housing shortage in the region, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative regional sample, 41% of Metro Vancouverites think significantly reducing immigration to Canada would be the most effective solution to the housing crisis.

Fewer Metro Vancouverites support two other solutions: government construction of new housing via a public builder (28%) and the rezoning of cities to allow for the construction of new housing (20%).

More than half of Metro Vancouverites (52%) feel housing is the top issue facing their municipality, followed by crime and public safety (19%), the economy and jobs (also 19%), the environment (4%) and education (4%).

Housing is decidedly the most important municipal issue in the North Shore (65%) and Burnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities (59%). The proportions of residents who feel this way are lower in Surrey and White Rock (50%), Richmond and Delta (49%) and Vancouver (42%).

“Most Metro Vancouverites aged 35-to-54 (57%) and aged 55 and over (58%) look at housing as the biggest municipal challenge,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Those aged 18-to-34 are worried about both housing (39%) and the economy and jobs (30%).”

When asked which factors contributed the most to the housing crisis, just under three-in-ten Metro Vancouverites (29%) point to immigration.

Fewer than one-in-five residents select any of five other options: interest rates and bank policy (18%), foreign speculators (17%), the policies of the Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark BC Liberal provincial governments (10%), the policies of the John Horgan and David Eby BC NDP provincial governments (also 10%) and obstruction from municipal governments (6%).

The perception of immigration amplifying the housing crisis is particularly high in Surrey and White Rock (38%). Fewer residents of Burnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities (30%), the North Shore (also 30%), Richmond and Delta (26%) and Vancouver (22%) express the same view.

When asked to assign blame for the housing crisis, Metro Vancouverites think the federal government is primarily responsible (44%), followed by the provincial government (33%) and municipal governments (23%).

Animosity towards the federal government on this question is highest among Metro Vancouverites aged 35-to-54 (46%) and residents of the North Shore (51%).

Respondents to this survey were asked to use an emotion to express their feelings about the provincial government setting specific homebuilding targets for their municipality or risk having funding for amenities be withheld.

The emotions mentioned the most are anticipation (16%), surprise (15%), trust (12%) and fear (11%). Fewer Metro Vancouverites said the policy evoked feelings of disgust (8%), sadness (also 8%), anger (6%) or joy (5%).

Just under three-in-five Metro Vancouverites (59%) say they would be “very comfortable” (23%) or “somewhat comfortable” (36%) with the construction of housing that is six storeys or higher on their block.

The level of comfort with these buildings is highest among Metro Vancouverites aged 18-to-34 (68%), and drops among those aged 35-to-54 (61%) and those aged 55 and over (46%).

Only 41% of respondents in the North Shore would be comfortable with the construction of housing that is six storeys or higher on their block. The proportions are higher in Richmond and Delta (58%), Surrey and White Rock (59%), Burnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities (also 59%) and Vancouver (66%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 10 to October 14, 2024, among a representative sample of 700 adults in Metro Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Metro Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Growing Skeptical of Childhood Vaccinations

October 16, 2024October 15, 2024By Mario Canseco

Just over three-in-ten continue to believe the debunked idea that there is a connection between the MMR vaccine and autism.

Vancouver, BC [October 16, 2024] – Practically three-in-ten Canadians are opposed to a mandate related to childhood vaccinations, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 29% of Canadians think parents “definitely” or “probably” should be the ones deciding on whether their children should be vaccinated, up nine points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in March 2022.

Just over two thirds of Canadians (67%, -8) say vaccinations for children should “definitely” or “probably” be mandatory in their province.

Support for allowing parents to decide on vaccinations for children is highest in Alberta (34%, +18), followed by Quebec (31%, +16), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%, +11), British Columbia (also 30%, +9), Ontario (28%, +3), and Atlantic Canada (also 28%, +3).

In the late 1990s, a study published in the weekly medical journal The Lancet—which has since been discredited and retracted—attempted to link childhood vaccination and autism.

More than three-in-ten Canadians (31%, +12) believe there is a connection between the childhood vaccine for Measles, Mumps and Rubella (MMR) and autism.

“The long-debunked nation of a link between childhood vaccinations and autism is a reality for two-in-five Canadians aged 18-to-34 (40%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer Canadians aged 35-to-54 (36%) and aged 55 and over (19%) hold the same misguided belief.”

Almost three-in-five Canadians (59%, +8) think everyone should be allowed to decide if they want to get vaccinations for seasonal diseases, while almost two-in-five (38%, -3) think the flu vaccine should be mandatory in their province.

Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in 2021 are more likely to support a mandate for the flu vaccine in their province (46%) than those who cast ballots for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (41%) or the Conservative Party (32%) in the last federal election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 7 to October 9, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

NDP Steady, Conservatives Fall Behind in British Columbia

October 15, 2024October 18, 2024By Mario Canseco

Housing, homelessness and poverty is still identified as the most important issue facing the province.

Vancouver, BC [October 15, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is ahead of the Conservative Party of BC in the final stages of British Columbia’s electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters (unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early October) would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 41% (-3) would vote for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party is third with 11% (+2), while 3% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

The governing BC NDP has extended its lead over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (50% to 40%) and Vancouver Island (45% to 33%). The two parties are virtually tied in the Fraser Valley (BC NDP 45%, BC Conservatives 44%) and Southern BC (BC Conservatives 43%, BC NDP 42%), while the BC Conservatives remain ahead in Northern BC (52% to 34%).

“The BC Conservatives keep the upper hand among men (45%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (44%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC NDP is first among women (50%) and voters aged 55 and over (53%).”

Just over two-in-five likely voters in British Columbia (41%, +1) point to housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (22%, +3), the economy and jobs (17%, -1), crime and public safety (7%, -1) and the environment (4%, =).

More than half of likely voters in the province (52%, +1) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby is handling his duties. The rating improved for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (45%, +3) and dropped for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (42%, -3).

Furstenau posts a momentum score of +8 (23% of likely voters say their impression of her has improved since the start of the campaign, while 15% say it has worsened). The momentum scores are negative for both Eby (-4) and Rustad (-10).

There was little movement on the “Best Premier” question, with 40% of likely voters (=) selecting Eby and 31% (-1) choosing Rustad. Furstenau is third with 14% (+2), while 15% of likely voters (-2) are not sure.

On issue management, Eby is preferred over Rustad to handle nine different issues: health care (41% to 27%), housing, homelessness and poverty (39% to 30%), creating jobs (38% to 34%), transportation projects (37% to 29%), education (37% to 26%), seniors care (36% to 26%), dealing with municipal governments (35% to 30%), accountability (35% to 30%) and child care (34% to 24%).

Rustad leads Eby on crime and public safety (37% to 34%), while the two main leaders are tied or virtually tied on the economy (37% each), energy (Eby 33%, Rustad 30%) and managing the province’s finances (Eby 35%, Rustad 33%). Furstenau is the top choice to handle the environment (40%, with Eby at 24% and Rustad at 20%).

The top four traits likely voters see in Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (57%, =), having a vision for the future (51%, =), understanding the problems of residents (50%, +2) and being a strong and decisive leader (48%, +1).

The most mentioned traits for Rustad are having a vision for the future (49%, +2), being patronizing (44%, +4), being a good speaker and communicator (42%, -4), being a strong and decisive leader (42%, -3) and understanding the problems of residents (42%, -2).

The top traits for Furstenau are being a good speaker and communicator (44%, +5), being honest and trustworthy (42%, +4), having a vision for the future (41%, +3) and understanding the problems of residents (40%, +5).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2024, among a representative sample of 800 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Ruling Party Stays Ahead of Opposition NDP in Saskatchewan

October 11, 2024October 10, 2024By Mario Canseco

The approval rating for both Carla Beck and Scott Moe surpasses 50%, but Moe is ahead on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2024] – The governing Saskatchewan Party is ahead of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in the early stages of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 51% of decided voters would support the Saskatchewan Party’s candidate in their constituency, while 43% would vote for the New Democrats. The Green Party is third with 3%, while 2% of decided voters would back other parties or independents.

“The Saskatchewan Party has a 15-point advantage over the NDP among male decided voters (55% to 40%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two parties are virtually tied among female decided voters (Sask. Party 48%, NDP 47%).”

On a regional basis, the race is very close in Saskatoon (NDP 47%, Sask. Party 46%). The governing party is ahead in Regina (51% to 45%) and in the rest of the province (61% to 35%).

Support for the Saskatchewan Party is highest among decided voters aged 55 and over (56%) and falls slightly among those aged 35-to-54 (52%) and those aged 18-to-34 (48%). Conversely. the New Democrats fare better with the youngest adults (46%) but drop among those aged 35-to-54 (43%) and those aged 55 and over (39%).

More than half of likely voters in the province approve of the performance of both Official Opposition and NDP leader Carla Beck (58%) and Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe (54%).

Fewer than two-in-five likely voters approve of five other leaders: Rose Marie Buscholl of the Progressive Conservative Party (35%), Naomi Hunter of the Greens (34%), Teunis Peters of the Saskatchewan Progress Party (33%), Jon Hromek of the Saskatchewan United Party (29%) and Phillip Zajac of the Buffalo Party (25%).

Beck posts an impressive momentum score of +14 (with 30% of likely voters in Saskatchewan saying their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign). Moe’s score on this question is even (24% of respondents say their views on him have improved, and 24% say they have worsened).

Moe holds the upper hand on Beck when decided voters are asked who would make the “Best Premier” of Saskatchewan (42% to 29%), with Hunter at 9%

Similar proportions of likely voters in Saskatchewan select two issues as the most important ones facing the province: health care (27%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (26%). Fewer respondents are primarily concerned about the economy and jobs (18%), crime and public safety (10%), education (5%), the environment (3%) and accountability (2%).

Moe leads Beck when respondents are asked about the person best suited to manage four issues: energy (40% to 30%), the economy and jobs (39% to 29%), crime and public safety (36% to 30%) and government accountability (36% to 30%).

Beck is ahead of Moe health care (38% to 32%) and education (37% to 29%). The two leaders are virtually tied on two other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (Moe 36%, Beck 34%) and the environment (Beck 32%, Moe 30%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 7 to October 9, 2024, among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 413 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.8 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbians Worried About Shortage of Doctors and Nurses

October 9, 2024October 9, 2024By Mario Canseco

Almost half of residents endorse the use of SOGI-Inclusive Education, while 77% agree with the K-12 mobile phone ban.

Vancouver, BC [October 9, 2024] – The concerns of British Columbians when pondering the health care system have not varied greatly over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, more than two-in-five British Columbians (42%, +2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in November 2023) say the biggest problem facing the health care system right now is a shortage of doctors and nurses, followed by long waiting times (23%, +1) and inadequate resources and facilities (11%, +1).

Fewer British Columbians cite other concerns, such as bureaucracy and poor management (9%, -3), lack of a wider range of services for patients (4%, =), little focus on preventive care (also 4%, -2), vague legal rights of patients (2%, +1) and insufficient standards of hygiene (also 2%, +1).

Health Care

Just under half of British Columbians (49%, -6) say there are some good things in health care in the province, but some changes are required. Smaller proportions of residents hold differing views: that health care in British Columbia has so much wrong with it that we need to completely rebuild it (31%, +1) or that health care in British Columbia works well, and only minor changes are needed to make it work better (16%, +6).

About two-in-five British Columbians say they would be willing to pay out of their own pocket (41%, -5) or travel to another country to have quicker access to medical services that currently have long waiting times (39%, +1).

“Almost half of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (49%) would consider paying for medical services,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (39%) and aged 55 and over (38%).”

Child Care

More than seven-in-ten British Columbians (72%) think the provincial government should continue to invest in building a flexible child care system that costs families no more than $10 a day—a proportion that rises to 82% in Southern BC and to 80% in Vancouver Island.

Just under four-in-five British Columbians (78%)—and 90% of those aged 55 and over—agree that employers benefit from investments in child care because more parents can go to work.

Education

Some school districts in British Columbia have relied on “SOGI-Inclusive Education”, which raises awareness of and welcomes students of all sexual orientations, gender identities and family structures.

Just under half of British Columbians (49%) agree with the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education” in the province, while 34% disagree and 16% are not sure.

Support for “SOGI-Inclusive Education” is highest among British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (61%) and residents of Metro Vancouver (52%).

More than three-in-four British Columbians (77%) agree with banning the use of mobile phones during instructional time in K-12 classrooms.

The policy is endorsed by majorities of British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals (86%), the BC NDP (83%) or the BC Greens (78%) in the 2020 provincial election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 5 to September 7, 2024, among a representative sample of 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Harris Leads Trump in 2024 United States Nationwide Vote

October 7, 2024November 3, 2024By Mario Canseco

The former president is the top choice for male voters, while women are more supportive of the current vice president.

Vancouver, BC [October 7, 2024] – Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris holds the upper hand over Republican Party nominee Donald Trump in the American presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 52% of decided voters would support the current vice president or have already voted for her, while 47% would back the former president.

“Harris holds a 15-point lead over Trump among female decided voters (57% to 42%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is ahead of Harris among male voters (52% to 47%).”

On a regional basis, Harris holds sizeable leads over Trump in the West (58% to 40%) and the Northeast (55% to 43%). Trump is first in the South (51% to 48%) while the two candidates are virtually tied in the Midwest (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).

Only 5% of decided voters say they could change their mind and support a different candidate in the presidential election. The proportion of undecided likely voters with four weeks to go in the campaign is 4%.

More than half of white decided voters (54%) would cast a ballot for Trump or have already done so. Harris leads among decided voters who are African American (71%) or Hispanic / Latino (61%).

Harris is the top choice for American decided voters who get their news from MSNBC / CNBC (81%), CNN (67%) or a local network (53%), while Trump is ahead among those who watch Fox News (68%).

Harris holds a five-point lead over Trump among decided voters who have a cat in their household (52% to 47%). The race is closer among decided voters who have a dog at home (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).

Decided voters in the United States cite the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (43%) as the main reason behind their choice, followed by the candidate’s political party (24%), desire for stability (14%), desire for change (also 14%) and disgust with other candidates (8%).

These findings are very similar among decided voters who are backing either Harris or Trump, with one exception. While 10% of Harris voters say their main motivator is “disgust with other candidates”, the proportion is lower (5%) among Trump voters.

American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential candidates is best suited to deal with 13 different issues.

Harris holds the upper hand over Trump on five issues: health care (52% to 36%), education (52% to 36%), the environment (52% to 35%), race relations (50% to 35%) and government accountability (47% to 41%). Trump leads Harris on two issues: immigration (50% to 39%) and national defence (48% to 41%).

The two nominees are virtually tied on six other issues: the economy (Harris 47%, Trump 45%), job creation (Harris 47%, Trump 44%), crime (Trump 45%, Harris 44%), foreign Policy (Trump 45%, Harris 43%), energy and oil (Trump 45%, Harris 43%) and managing the deficit (Trump 44%, Harris 41%).

The approval rating for U.S. President Joe Biden stands at 44% nationwide. Democrats are significantly more likely to express satisfaction with Biden’s performance at this moment (82%) than Independents (34%) or Republicans (13%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 4 to October 6, 2024, among 1,001 likely voters in the United States and 926 decided voters in the 2024 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here, and download the press release here.

No Clear Frontrunner in British Columbia’s Provincial Election

October 4, 2024October 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

David Eby holds an eight-point advantage over John Rustad when voters ponder who would make the “Best Premier”.

Vancouver, BC [October 4, 2024] – No political party has managed to amass a significant advantage at the midway point of the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early September) say they would vote for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency, while 44% (+2) would cast a ballot for the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 9% (-1), while 2% of decided voters (-1) would vote for other parties or independent candidates.

The race has tightened across all regions, with the governing BC NDP leading the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (49% to 44%) and Vancouver Island (42% to 37%). The opposition party is ahead of the governing party in the Fraser Valley (48% to 43%), Southern BC (47% to 42%) and Northern BC (47% to 36%).

As was the case last month, the BC NDP remains the most popular choice for women (50%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (52%). The BC Conservatives are ahead among men (49%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (47%).

“By a 2-to-1 margin, voters who supported the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson in the 2020 provincial election are choosing the BC Conservatives (61%) over the BC NDP (32%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate for the BC New Democrats is 72%, while the BC Greens are holding on to 47% of their voters from the last provincial ballot.”

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, -1) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (19%, -2), the economy and jobs (18%, +4), crime and public safety (8%, +2) and the environment (4%, =).

There was little fluctuation in the approval ratings of the three party leaders. More than half of likely voters (52%, +1) are satisfied with the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby. The numbers are lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (45%, -3) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (42%, +1).

All three party leaders post negative momentum scores: -3 for Rustad (with 30% of likely voters saying their views on the BC Conservative leader have worsened since the start of the campaign) and -2 for both Furstenau and Eby.

Two-in-five likely voters (40%, +4) think Eby would make the Best Premier of British Columbia, with Rustad in second place with 32% (+5) and Furstenau at 12% (=). On this question, Eby reaches 43% in Metro Vancouver, while Rustad’s best showing is in Southern BC (37%).

On issue management, Rustad is ahead of Eby on being the best person to handle crime and public safety (38% to 32%), while Furstenau remains ahead on the environment (35%, with Eby at 27% and Rustad at 20%).

Eby maintains the upper hand over Rustad on health care (42% to 27%), the economy (40% to 33%), education (39% to 26%), housing, homelessness and poverty (38% to 31%), transportation projects (38% to 30%), accountability (37% to 31%), child care (36% to 24%) and seniors care (36% to 25%).

The two main leaders are practically even on three issues, where Eby edges Rustad by just three points: creating jobs (36% to 33%), energy (33% to 30%) and dealing with municipal governments (35% to 32%). Eby and Rustad are tied with 35% each on being the best person to manage the province’s finances.

The top four traits likely voters identify on Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (57%, -1 since September), having a vision for the future (51%, =), generally agreeing with people on issues (49%, +7) and understanding the problems of residents (48%, +1).

For Rustad, the top four traits are having a vision for the future (47%, -2), being a good speaker and communicator (46%, -1, being a strong and decisive leader (45%, +3) and understanding the problems of residents (44%, +1).

Furstenau’s top traits are being a good speaker and communicator (39%, +1), being honest and trustworthy (38%, -1), having a vision for the future (also 38%, =) and understanding the problems of residents (35%, -3).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2024, among a representative sample of 801 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Making Ends Meet Harder for Three-in-Four British Columbians

October 2, 2024October 1, 2024By Mario Canseco

Only 14% think their municipal government should reject the provincial government’s demand to build more housing units.

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2024] – British Columbians head to this year’s provincial election voicing significant support for the current government’s housing plans, and severe dissatisfaction with economic matters, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 75% of British Columbians say it is “considerably harder” or “moderately harder” now to make ends meet than two years ago—a proportion that rises to 77% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 78% among renters.

More than half of British Columbians say four tasks are now harder than they were two years ago: finding a job (54%), paying for post-secondary education (59%), saving money for retirement (75%) and buying a house (79%).

“Sizeable majorities of British Columbians who reside in Metro Vancouver (59%) and Southern BC (58%) say finding a job is more complicated now than in 2022,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than four-in-five British Columbians aged 55 and over (82%) say it is harder now to save money for retirement.”

Most British Columbians remain supportive of the housing policies implemented during the tenure of John Horgan as Premier of British Columbia: increasing the foreign buyers tax from 15% to 20% (72%, -2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February 2024), expanding the foreign buyers tax to areas located outside of Metro Vancouver (69%, -2), introducing a “speculation tax” in specific urban areas targeting foreign and domestic homeowners who pay little or no income tax in BC, and those who own second properties that aren’t long-term rentals (66%, -3), introducing a tax of 0.2% on the value of homes between $3 million and $4 million, and a tax rate of 0.4% on the portion of a home’s value that exceeds $4 million (62%, =) and increasing the property transfer tax from 3% to 5% for homes valued at more than $3 million (61%, -1).

The housing policies that came into place after David Eby became Premier of British Columbia are also endorsed my majorities of the province’s residents: building more modular supportive homes in areas where people are experiencing homelessness (75%, =), capping rent increases in 2024 at 3.5% (70%), raising the fines for short-term rental hosts who break local municipal by-laws to $3,000 per day per infraction (64%, -5), implementing a three-business-day protection period for financing and home inspections (63%, -6), ending most strata age restrictions (59%, -1), removing strata rental restrictions (56%, +4) and banning homeowners from operating a short-term rental business unless it is located on their principal residence and/or on a different unit on their property (53%, -5).

Just under three-in-four British Columbians (74%) think their municipal government should accept the provincial government’s demand to build more housing units, while 14% disagree and 12% are undecided.

Residents of the Fraser Valley are slightly more likely to support the provincial government’s call to build more housing units (78%) than their counterparts who reside in Vancouver Island (76%), Metro Vancouver (73%), Southern BC (72%) and Northern BC (also 72%).

British Columbians are evenly divided on what the actions of the provincial government will bring, with 43% (+2) thinking they will be “effective” in making housing more affordable, and 43% (-4) believing they will be “ineffective”.

More than half of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (55%) expect the provincial government to succeed in making housing more affordable. Fewer residents aged 35-to-54 (45%) and aged 55 and over (31%) share this point of view.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.