Heavy support from female decided voters pushes Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in the three battleground states.
Vancouver, BC [October 8, 2024] – A month before voters in the United States cast their ballots in the presidential election, Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Republican Party contender Donald Trump in three battleground states, according to new polls conducted by Research Co.
The surveys of American likely voters also give the upper hand to the Democratic Party candidates in the elections to the U.S. Senate that will take place in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Michigan
In 2016, Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.6% to 47.8%) to secure Michigan’s 16 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Michigan has 15 Electoral Votes.
This month, Harris holds a three-point lead over Trump among decided voters (51% to 48%), with a particularly high level of support from women (57%) and likely voters aged 55 and over (55%).
In the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, Democratic Party candidate Elissa Slotkin is ahead of Republican Party contender Mike Rogers (52% to 47%).
Pennsylvania
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush in 1988, defeating Clinton by 44,292 votes (48.2% to 47.5%).
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.0% to 48.8%) to capture Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Pennsylvania has 19 Electoral Votes.
This month, Harris is virtually tied with Trump among decided voters (50% to 49%). Trump does better with decided voters aged 35-to-54 (55%), while Harris is ahead among those aged 18-to-34 (55%) and those aged 55 and over (54%).
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr.—first elected in 2006 with 58.7% of the vote, and earning new terms in 2012 with 53.7% and in 2018 with 55.7% of the vote—leads Republican Party challenger David McCormick (51% to 48%).
Wisconsin
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, defeating Clinton by 22,748 votes 47.2% to 46.5%).
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (49.4% to 48.8%) to win Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, Wisconsin will continue to have 10 Electoral Votes.
This month, Harris is two points ahead of Trump among decided voters (50% to 48%). Practically two thirds of decided female voters (64%) are supporting the Democratic presidential nominee.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin—first elected in 2012 with 51.4% of the vote and re-elected in 2018 with 55.4%—is ahead of Republican Party contender Eric Hovde (52% to 47%).
“Independent voters in will be crucial in securing a victory for either of the main presidential candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than one-in-five Independents in both Wisconsin (24%) and Michigan (22%) have not made up their minds yet.”
Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted from October 5 to October 7, 2024, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in three American states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca