Elections – Page 4 – Research Co.

BC Conservatives Rise, Governing BC NDP First in British Columbia

July 30, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Southern BC emerges as a key battleground in this year’s provincial election, with the two main parties virtually tied.

Vancouver, BC [July 30, 2024] – Public support for the Conservative Party of BC increased markedly in the past month, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 41% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2024) would support the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency if the election were held today, while 38% (+5) would cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party remains in third place with 10% (-5), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 9% (-2). Other parties and independent candidates have the support of 2% of decided voters (=).

The BC NDP is ahead of the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (44% to 35%) and Vancouver Island (43% to 32%), while the BC Conservatives lead the BC NDP in Northern BC (57% to 31%) and the Fraser Valley (47% to 28%).

“The race has tightened considerably in Southern BC, where the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives are virtually tied (40% to 38%)” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In June, the BC New Democrats were 11 points ahead of the BC Conservatives in this region of British Columbia (44% to 33%).”

The BC NDP remains popular among women (47%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (49%). The BC Conservatives are first among men (41%) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (45%).

Fewer than half of British Columbians (48%, -5) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby has handled his duties. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (39%, -1), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -4), and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (29%, -3).

There is a significant gender gap in the rating of one of the two main party leaders. Half of women in British Columbia (50%) approve of Eby, but just 32% feel the same way about Rustad. Among men, the two leaders post practically the same numbers (Eby 46%, Rustad 47%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would consider voting for the BC New Democrats (51%, -3) or the BC Conservatives (45%, -1) if they ran a candidate in their riding. The proportions are lower for the BC Greens (36%, -2) and BC United (32%, -2).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is still the most important issue facing the province for British Columbians (42%, +2), followed by health care (21%, +1), the economy and jobs (14%, -3), the environment (6%, +1) and crime and public safety (5%, -3).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Eby is Ahead of Rivals on Character Traits in British Columbia

June 28, 2024July 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most of province’s residents place themselves at or near the centre of the political spectrum.

Vancouver, BC [June 28, 2024] – British Columbians hold contrasting views on the political leanings of the four party leaders contesting this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians also asked about characteristics that people may find in politicians.

At least two-in-five British Columbians say Premier and BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader David Eby is a good speaker and communicator (52%), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (44%), understands the problems of BC residents (41%), is a strong and decisive leader (40%) and is honest and trustworthy (also 40%).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians regard Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad as having a vision for the future (34%), being a good speaker and communicator (33%), understanding the problems of BC residents (32%) and being a strong and decisive leader (30%).

More than three-in-ten British Columbians think BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau has a vision for the province (36%), is honest and trustworthy (34%), is a good speaker and communicator (33%), understands the problems of BC residents (32%) and generally agrees with people on the issues they care about (31%).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians believe BC United leader Kevin Falcon is a good speaker and communicator (36%), is a strong and decisive leader (34%), understands the problems of BC residents (30%) and is patronizing (also 30%).

On the political spectrum, one third of British Columbians (33%) describe themselves as centre, while 16% say they are centre right and a further 16% place themselves as centre left.

The BC NDP is regarded as centre left, left or extreme left by 51% of British Columbians. More than two-in-five of the province’s residents (43%) place the Green Party in these same three categories.

The Conservative Party of BC is seen as centre right, right or extreme right by 61% of British Columbians, BC United is placed in these same three categories by 36% of British Columbians.

The answers to this question do not vary greatly for the leaders. Almost half of British Columbians (48%) perceive Eby as centre left, left or extreme left, and 41% feel the same way about Furstenau.

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (58%) brand Rustad as centre right, right or extreme right, compared to 37% for Falcon.

“Only one-in-ten British Columbians think Eby (10%) is extreme left,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost one-in-five (19%) believe Rustad is extreme right.”

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 17 to June 19, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

BC NDP Lead Narrows as British Columbians Ponder Choices

June 25, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Voter consideration for the Conservatives and the Greens rose since May, along with the approval ratings for their leaders.

Vancouver, BC [June 25, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of the Conservative Party of BC as British Columbians consider their options in this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 40% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May 2024) would cast a ballot for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding if the election were held today, while 33% (+1) would support the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 15% (+3), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 11% (-1). Other parties and independent candidates are backed by 2% of decided voters (=).

“The BC NDP remains ahead of all challengers in Metro Vancouver (41%), Vancouver Island (43%) and Southern BC (44%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC Conservatives lead in the Fraser Valley (40%) and Northern BC (53%).”

Two parties gained momentum in the voter consideration question: the BC Conservatives (46%, +4) and the BC Greens (38%, +3). The proportion of British Columbians who would consider supporting the BC NDP remains higher (54%, -1) while just over a third (34%, +1) feel the same way about BC United.

Housing, homelessness and poverty remains the most important issue for 40% of British Columbians (=). Health care is second on the list of pressing concerns with 20% (-1), followed by the economy and jobs (17%, +2), crime and public safety (8%, +3) and the environment (5%, =).

BC United’s Kevin Falcon continues to have the lowest approval rating among the four major party leaders (32%, +1). The proportions are higher for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (39%, +4), BC Conservative leader John Rustad (40%, +3) and Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby (53%, -1).

Eby is also ahead on the “Best Premier” question (28%), followed by Rustad (14%), Falcon (13%) and Furstenau (11%). While more than half of BC NDP voters in the 2020 provincial ballot (54%) choose Eby, only 28% of those who voted for the BC Liberals in the same election select Falcon.

When asked which leader would be best suited to manage specific issues, Eby has significant leads on health care (30%), education (28%), the economy and jobs (26%), child care (also 26%), housing, homelessness and poverty (also 26%), accountability (25%), transportation projects (24%), managing the province’s finances (also 24%), crime and public safety (23%), energy (also 23%), creating jobs (also 23%) and seniors care (22%).

On the environment, Eby and Furstenau are tied with 23% each. Rustad posts his best numbers on crime and public safety (18%) and the economy and jobs (17%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Regard Biden as Superior to Trump in White House

May 29, 2024May 29, 2024By Mario Canseco

More than a quarter of Canadians think Donald Trump was the real winner of the 2020 United States presidential election.

Vancouver, BC [May 29, 2024] – Almost half of Canadians hold positive views on the tenure of the current American president, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 48% of Canadians say having Joe Biden as President of the United States since January 2021 has been “very good” or “good” for Canada, while three-in-ten (30%) think the current White House dweller has been “bad” or “very bad”.

More than half of Quebecers (57%) and British Columbians (52%) hold positive views on Biden’s time in the White House. The proportions are lower in Atlantic Canada (49%), Ontario (45%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (44%) and Alberta (32%).

Just under three-in-five Canadians (59%) think having Donald Trump as President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021 was “bad” or “very bad” for Canada, while 29% believe Trump was “very good” or “good”.

A third of residents of Alberta (33%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 33%) have a positive view of Trump’s term as president. Trump’s rating is lower in Atlantic Canada (30%), Ontario (29%), British Columbia (28%) and Quebec (25%).

“In August 2020, more than seven-in-ten Canadians (73%) regarded Trump’s presidency as detrimental to Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion has dropped by 14 points in just under four years.”

As was the case four years ago, Canadians are divided when asked about the behaviour of elected officials, with 46% (+3) wanting Canadian politicians to speak their mind if they are concerned about the U.S. presidential election, and 46% (=) wanting them to stay neutral and avoid public statements during the American campaign.

Canadians also have contrasting views on whether the country should have a system similar to the American one, where voters can cast a ballot for presidential candidates. Across Canada, 42% of respondents agree with this idea, while 44% disagree and 14% are undecided.

While only 37% of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in the 2021 federal election would welcome a “presidential system” in Canada, the proportion rises slightly to 40% among those who backed the New Democratic Party (NDP) and jumps to 56% among those who cast ballots for Conservative Party candidates.

Almost two thirds of Canadians (65%) say it matters to them who wins this year’s presidential election in the United States. Canadians aged 55 and over are more likely to feel this way (74%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (63%) and aged 18-to-34 (57%)

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%) say they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr. in the 2024 presidential election if they lived in the United States. Support for the independent presidential candidate on this question is highest in Ontario (36%) and lowest in Alberta (14%).

More than a quarter of Canadians (27%) say Donald Trump was the real winner of the 2020 United States presidential election. More than three-in-ten British Columbians (31%), Canadians aged 18-to-34 (36%) and Conservative voters in the last federal election (39%) express this point of view.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from May 20 to May 22, 2024, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

What Do British Columbians Think About $10aDay Child Care?

May 27, 2024May 26, 2024By Mario Canseco

Practically four-in-five British Columbians agree that employers benefit from investments in child care cause more parents can go to work.

Introduction

In March 2024, the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of BC worked with Research Co.^[1] to conduct a provincial poll asking British Columbians about their views on $10aDay child care. The poll results add to the extensive input we regularly receive from over 20,000 $10aDay supporters and through outreach to and engagement in communities across the province. We also meet with government officials and carry out research and analysis – all to inform and update our $10aDay policy and funding recommendations.

The new provincial poll explores public views of $10aDay child care 6 years after the program’s launch in BC, and 5 years after our last provincial poll. To support comparisons over time, some polling questions are consistent with previous polls. Others reflect the new context (e.g. post-COVID, new federal funding, system implementation now underway) and the interest in flexible approaches to child care within the evolving $10aDay system.

Summary of Findings

British Columbians continue to strongly support $10aDay child care^[2]. Nearly 80% of British Columbians say it’s important for government to continue with its $10aDay commitments and three quarters (76%) think implementation should be moving more quickly. 75% of British Columbians also agree that flexible child care options are needed as more parents today work outside of Monday to Friday 9-5.

While only 9%^[3] of all the licensed child care spaces in BC are currently $10aDay, 20% of British Columbians report they’ve been personally touched by $10aDay child care, either directly or through someone they know. Notably, 35% of 18–34-year-olds have benefitted themselves or know someone who has.

At the same time, 84% of BC families with young children report that long waiting lists for child care are still a problem. This is not surprising as there are only enough licensed child care spaces for 23%^[4] of young children in BC. 43% of families with young children reported that they had to wait more than 6 months for child care.

Overall, 70% of British Columbians with young children say that government has made child care more affordable for their family, and 88% confirm that they would like to have access to $10aDay child care.

Highlights

The poll asked British Columbians to consider 17 $10aDay policy recommendations. While the results show that support drops slightly for older age groups, and men relative to women, overall, the recommendations were broadly supported (see charts below).

Specifically,

84% of British Columbians agree it’s important for Early Childhood Educators to earn fair wages for their important work.
81% agree that all elementary schools should provide before and after school care for the children in that school.
75% agree that Indigenous children should have access to culturally safe child care programs.
72% agree that child care should be publicly available like elementary schools.
71% agree that BC cannot create and staff more child care programs without ensuring fair compensation for Early Childhood Educators.
67% agree that, with substantial public funds being invested, government should ensure child care programs are non-profit.

Furthermore,

90% of young people (aged 18-34) think it’s important to keep building the $10aDay child care system, and 58% say this issue will be vote-determining for them in the upcoming BC election.

Among older British Columbians,
90% think it’s important for Early Childhood Educators to earn fair wages.
78% think BC’s child care system should help parents who work non-traditional schedules.
76% agree that all new child care facilities in BC should be built to be climate resilient.

$10aDay child care is a vote-determining issue for nearly half the population (45%), which is far more than the percent of the population who presently needs child care for young children.

On affordability,

85% of British Columbians – and 88% of those over 55 – agree that having children now costs a lot more than it did 40 years ago.
82% agree child care is important to support working parents.
80% agree that single parents have a better opportunity to work when there’s access to quality flexible $10aDay child care.
78% confirm that when child care is affordable and available, more mothers can work and pay taxes.

On the economic impacts of child care,

78% of British Columbians agree that employers benefit from investments in child care because more parents can go to work.
78% agree that investing in child care is beneficial to the economy.
67%of parents with recent child care experience said a parent had to remain away from work for a longer period following the end of parental leave because child care was unavailable..

These poll results confirm what we hear from families, educators, and communities across BC. Public support for $10aDay Child Care remains very strong and consistent.

When asked what they knew about $10aDay child care, one respondent summarized the general sentiment expressed throughout this provincial poll, saying “it’s been in the works for some time, and we need to get it done”.

The Coalition of Child Care Advocates of BC gratefully acknowledges the support of Employment and Social Development Canada.

[1] Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from March 21 to March 23, 2024, among 803 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender, and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

In this survey, we asked questions related to child care (sometimes referred to as childcare, daycare or preschool). For the purpose of this survey, child care is defined as the caring and supervision of a child 0-12 years old that is performed by a person other than the child’s legal guardians for part of or all of a day. The care may take place in a licensed/regulated setting or in an unregulated and informal setting.

Consult the data tables here and here.

[2] See summary of 2019 survey here.

[3] Data as of March 2024, as reported by the BC Government’s child care data dashboard, accessed May 23, 2024 (calculation:13,571 $10aDay spaces / 148,383 total spaces participating in government programs). On March 28, 2024 the BC Government announced the total number of $10aDay spaces would be increasing to 15,300 in April, 2024.

[4] Calculation: 148,383 total spaces (as cited above) divided by the government-projected 2024 population of children 0-12 (accessed May 23, 2024).

Download the press release here.

A New Leader Would Not Make BC United More Competitive

May 24, 2024May 20, 2024By Mario Canseco

British Columbians react well to Christy Clark and Dianne Watts, but the party would still trail the NDP and the Conservatives.

Vancouver, BC [May 24, 2024] – The re-emergence of two well-known politicians would slightly help BC United in an election year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample asked British Columbians how they would vote in an election with 14 different options leading BC United.

Christy Clark and Dianne Watts post the best numbers, attracting 18% of decided voters to BC United—a six-point increase from the current standing of the party under Kevin Falcon.

Clark, who served as Premier and BC Liberal leader from 2011 to 2017, would still position BC United in third place, behind the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (35%) and the Conservative Party of BC (26%).

Under Watts, a former Mayor of Surrey and former Member of Parliament for the Conservative Party who finished second in the 2018 BC Liberal leadership race, BC United also trails the BC New Democrats (36%) and the BC Conservatives (24%).

“Just under one-in-five British Columbians who are willing to vote for the BC Conservatives (17%) would back BC United with Dianne Watts as leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Watts would put BC United in second place, behind the BC NDP, among decided voters aged 55 and over (43% to 24%).”

Two other candidates are ahead of Falcon’s current numbers: Vancouver-Langara MLA Michael Lee, who finished third in the BC Liberal leadership races of 2018 and 2022 (14%) and Gavin Dew, who finished fifth in the 2022 BC Liberal leadership election (13%).

Three candidates who sought the leadership of the BC Liberals would have the same level of support commanding BC United that Falcon currently has (12%): sixth place leadership finisher in 2022 Renee Merrifield, fourth place finisher in 2011 Mike de Jong and sixth place finisher in 2018 Sam Sullivan.

Support from decided voters would be lower for BC United under seven other candidates: second place leadership finisher in 2022 Ellis Ross (11%), current Mayor of Vancouver Ken Sim (also 11%), former BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson (also 11%), fourth place finisher in 2018 Todd Stone (10%), seventh place finisher in 2022 Stan Sipos (also 10%), fifth place finisher in 2022 Val Litwin (9%) and Aaron Gunn, who was disqualified from participating in the 2022 BC Liberal leadership race (also 9%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from May 13 to May 15, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

NDP First, Conservatives Rise, United Plummets in British Columbia

May 21, 2024May 20, 2024By Mario Canseco

Just over a third of British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals in 2020 are staying with BC United in 2024.

Vancouver, BC [May 21, 2024] – Five months before voters in British Columbia take part in a provincial election, the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of the opposition Conservative Party of BC, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 42% of decided voters (-3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2024) would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 32% (+5) would cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives.

BC United—currently the official opposition in the Legislative Assembly—is tied for third place with the BC Green Party (each with 12%). Support for BC United has dropped by three points in a month, while the BC Greens have gained one point. Other parties and independent candidates are supported by 2% of decided voters (+1).

“In May 2023, a third of decided voters in British Columbia (33%) were supporting BC United,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A year later, the proportion has fallen by 21 points.”

Only 35% of decided voters who supported the BC Liberals in the 2020 provincial election under leader Andrew Wilkinson are staying with BC United in 2024. More than two-in-five (44%) are now backing the BC Conservatives, while more than one-in-ten (12%) would cast a ballot for the BC NDP.

The BC New Democrats hold leads over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (40% to 30%) and Vancouver Island (49% to 29%). The races are closer in the Fraser Valley (NDP 40%, Conservatives 39%), Southern BC (NDP 39%, Conservatives 37%) and Northern BC (Conservatives 40%, NDP 38%).

Across the province, the BC Conservatives are ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39% to 34%). The BC New Democrats lead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (38% to 33%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (50% to 26%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the BC New Democrats (53%. -1) or the BC Conservatives (42%, +1) in the provincial election. The proportions are lower for the BC Greens (35%, -2) and BC United (33%, -4).

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, +3) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (21%, =), the economy and jobs (15%, -3), the environment (5%, -1) and crime and public safety (also 5%, =).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 54% this month (+3). The numbers are lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (37%, +2), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -2) and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (31%, -5).

The notion of BC United and the Conservative Party of BC merging into a single party before the next provincial election is backed by 33% of British Columbians (-6). Fewer than half of decided voters currently supporting the BC Conservatives (49%, -5) or BC United (47%, -6) are on board.

Rustad is regarded as a better leader than Falcon to attract male voters (29% to 17%), voters aged 35-to-54 (25% to 22%), voters aged 55 and over (34% to 17%), voters in the Fraser Valley (27% to 19%), voters in Southern BC (23% to 20%), voters in Northern BC (30% to15%) and voters in Vancouver Island (24% to 17%) to his party.

The BC Conservative leader is also regarded as having a better chance to serve as opposition leader after the next provincial election (26% to 23%) or form the government (24% to 19%) than Falcon.

Falcon is ahead of Rustad on attracting female voters (21% to 17%) and voters in Metro Vancouver (24% to 21%) to BC United. The two leaders are tied (at 20% each) on attracting voters aged 18-to-34 to their respective parties.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

BC New Democrats Remain Ahead of Rivals in British Columbia

April 23, 2024April 25, 2024By Mario Canseco

The Conservative Party of BC holds the upper hand against BC United and the BC Green Party among decided voters.

Vancouver, BC [April 23, 2024] – More than two-in-five decided voters would cast a ballot for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) if British Columbia’s provincial election were held today, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters would back the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, down one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in January 2024.

The Conservative Party of BC Is in second place with 27% (+2), followed by BC United with 15% (-2) and the BC Green Party with 11% (=), while 1% of decided voters (-1) would support other parties or independent candidates.

The BC NDP is solidly ahead of the BC Conservatives in Vancouver Island (56%) and Metro Vancouver (47%). The races are tighter in the Fraser Valley (37% to 36%), Southern BC (35% to 32%) and Northern BC (38% to 33%).

The BC NDP is still the first choice across all three age groups in British Columbia. The BC Conservatives are more popular among voters aged 18-to-34 (34%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (29%) and aged 55 and over (22%).

Just over half of British Columbians (51%, -2) approve of the way David Eby has handled his duties as Premier and BC NDP leader. Fewer than two-in-five feel the same way about BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (37%, +3), BC United leader Kevin Falcon (36%, +5) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (35%, +3).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province for 37% of British Columbians (-2). Health care is second on the list of concerns with 21% (-1), followed by the economy and jobs (18%, +1), the environment (6%, +2) and crime and public safety (5%, =).

“A third of British Columbians aged 55 and over (34%) think health care is the most pressing issue right now,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Those aged 18-to-34 and aged 35-to-54 are primarily concerned about housing, homelessness and poverty (42% and 40% respectively).”

Compared to January, there is no movement in the voting consideration question for the BC Conservatives, with 41% of British Columbians (=) saying they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for their candidates. The rating is lower for both the BC Greens (37%, +3) and BC United (also 37%, +4), and higher for the BC NDP (54%, =).

Almost half of British Columbians (48%) agree that all political parties should establish quotas to increase the number of female candidates in the provincial election. A smaller proportion (44%) would like to see quotas to increase the number of candidates from visible minorities.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) believe that, when politicians show up to festivals and celebrations (such as Vaisakhi) they are just pandering for votes and not truly interested in engaging with people from different cultures and backgrounds.

Almost two thirds of British Columbians (65%) think it should be mandatory for candidates to attend at least one public debate in their constituency with the candidates from other parties—a proportion that rises to 72% among residents of Northern BC.

Just over half of British Columbians (51%) think all political parties should compel candidates to step down if they said something offensive on social media. This course of action is favoured the most by residents of Southern BC (58%), followed by those who live in Metro Vancouver (52%), the Fraser Valley (49%), Vancouver Island (also 49%) and Northern BC (45%).

Almost two-in-five British Columbians (39%, +7) would like to see a merger encompassing BC United and the Conservative Party of BC before this year’s provincial election, while 42% (-3) disagree and 20% (-3) are not sure. The creation of a merged party is backed by more than half of British Columbians who would vote for the BC Conservatives (54%) or BC United (53%) if an election took place today.

Falcon is regarded as better suited than Rustad to attract male voters (26% to 19%), female voters (20% to 17%), voters aged 18-to-34 (23% to 17%) and voters in Metro Vancouver (25% to 19%) to BC United.

Rustad is ahead of Falcon as the best leader to attract voters aged 55 and over (30% to 20%), voters in the Fraser Valley (25% to 20%) and voters in Northern BC (27% to 17%) to the BC Conservatives.

The two party leaders are virtually tied on five other categories: forming the government after this year’s election (Falcon 21%, Rustad 20%), serving as Official Opposition leader after this year’s election (Rustad 24%, Falcon 22%), attracting voters aged 35-to-54 (Rustad 24%, Falcon 22%), attracting voters in Southern BC (Rustad 22%, Falcon 21%) and attracting voters in Vancouver Island (Falcon 21%, Rustad 20%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from April 15 to April 17, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Maintain Double-Digit Advantage in Canada

April 16, 2024April 15, 2024By Mario Canseco

Perceptions on the tenure of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister are significantly worse now than in 2020.

Vancouver, BC [April 16, 2024] – Support for the Conservative Party remains stable and superior to that of all other federal political organizations in Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of decided voters in Canada would back the Conservative candidate in their riding if an election took place tomorrow, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in late November 2023.

The governing Liberal Party is second with 26% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 10% (+1), the Green Party with 3% (-1) and the People’s Party with 1% (-1).

The Conservatives are ahead among decided voters in Alberta (60%, +2), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (48%, +4), British Columbia (46%, +1), Atlantic Canada (44%, -3) and Ontario (40%, -2). In Quebec, the Bloc is now in first place (34%, +5), followed by the Liberals (28%, -6).

More than a quarter of Canadians (27%, -2) believe housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the country right now, followed by the economy and jobs (24%, +3), health care (15%, -4), the environment (8%, +2) and immigration (also 8%, +2).

The approval rating did not change over the past few months for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (48%, =), Official Opposition and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (47%, =) and Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (39%, =). The proportions remain lower for Green leader Elizabeth May (33%, -1), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, +4) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (22%, +3).

When Canadians ponder which one of the six party leaders would make the best prime minister, Poilievre remains in first place with 32% (=), followed by Trudeau (26%, +3) and Singh (17%, -1).

Poilievre also maintains his advantage as a financial manager, with 49% of Canadians (+2) saying they would be comfortable if he oversaw the national economy. The rating is lower for Trudeau (38%, +1).

There is little movement on a question related to the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement struck by the Liberals and the NDP, with 43% of Canadians (+1) saying they are satisfied with what has been achieved so far.

“Canadians aged 55 and over are particularly skeptical of the current deal encompassing the Liberals and the New Democrats,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than half (53%) are dissatisfied with its accomplishments.”

Across the country, 50% of Canadians (+25 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May 2020) think Trudeau has performed worse than they expected since taking office in November 2015. More than a third (35%, -13) say he has performed as they expected, while 10% (-14) believe Trudeau has been better than originally envisioned.

Most Canadians (55%, +14) believe Trudeau has accomplished little since he became prime minister, while 20% (-4) say he has achieved much and 15% (-9) think it is too early to judge his accomplishments.

At least three-in-five Canadians think three issues are worse now than nine years ago: the Canadian economy (67%, +19), taxation (61%, +28) and health care (60%, +31).

More than a third of Canadians also believe seven other issues have declined since 2015: national unity (49%, +19), public safety (48%, +25), Canada’s reputation in the world (46%, +24), the environment (43%, +16), ethics and accountability (also 43%, +18), Canada’s role in global affairs (38%, +16) and national defence (37%, +20).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 8 to April 10, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Assess How Federal Politicians Are Elected

February 22, 2024February 22, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most are satisfied with “first-past-the-post”, but a majority would welcome a move to party-list proportional representation.

Vancouver, BC [February 22, 2024] – More than three-in-five Canadians have no qualms about the electoral system used in federal ballots, a new Research Co. poll has found.

Canadians elect the members of the House of Commons through a system called “first-past-the-post”, where a candidate wins a constituency by receiving more votes than any others.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 62% of Canadians say they are satisfied with “first-past-the-post”, while 27% are dissatisfied and 11% are not sure.

More than two thirds of Canadians aged 18-to-34 (67%) are satisfied with the current system, along with 61% of those aged 55 and over and 57% of those aged 35-to-54.

Just over three-in-four Canadians who supported the Liberal Party in the last federal election (76%) are content with “first-past-the-post”. Satisfaction is lower among those who cast ballots for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (62%) or the Conservative Party (58%) in 2021.

Respondents to this survey were provided with the definitions of three electoral systems that are used in other countries.

More than half of Canadians (56%) would agree to elect all members of the House of Commons through Party-List Proportional Representation, a system in which parties make lists of candidates to be elected, and seats get allocated to each party in accordance with the number of total votes the party receives.

“A move to Party-List Proportional Representation in federal elections would be welcomed by 62% of Canadians aged 18-to-34 and 57% of Canadians aged 35-to-54,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support is lower among their counterparts aged 55 and over (49%).”

On a regional basis, agreement with electing the members of the House of Commons through Party-List Proportional Representation is highest in British Columbia (60%), followed by Ontario (57%), Atlantic Canada (also 57%), Quebec (54%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51%) and Alberta (also 51%).

Fewer than half of Canadians (46%) would agree to adopt the Single Transferable Vote system, where votes are initially allocated to a voter’s most preferred candidate, and as the count proceeds and candidates are either elected or eliminated, they are transferred to other candidates in accordance to the voter’s stated preferences.

Just over two-in-five Canadians (41%) would prefer to elect the members of the Hose of Commons through Mixed Member Proportional Representation MMP—a hybrid method that would use Party-List Proportional Representation for a portion of the legislature, and first-past-the-post for another portion.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from January 29 to January 31, 2024, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Second, BC NDP Stays Ahead in British Columbia

January 31, 2024January 30, 2024By Mario Canseco

Only 41% of BC Liberal voters in 2020 say they would cast a ballot for BC United if an election were held today.

Vancouver, BC [January 31, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) keeps a double-digit lead over its closest competitor in British Columbia, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 46% of decided voters would support the BC NDP candidate in their riding if a provincial election took place today, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in September 2023.

The Conservative Party of BC Is in second place with 25% (+6), followed by BC United with 17% (-3) and the BC Green Party with 11% (-1), while 2% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

The proportion of undecided voters across British Columbia fell from 18% in September to 13% this month.

“More than four-in-five voters who supported the John Horgan-led BC NDP in 2020 (83%) are staying with the party under a new leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 41% of voters who backed the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson would cast a ballot for BC United.”

The BC NDP remains particularly popular in Vancouver Island (52%) and Metro Vancouver (47%). The BC New Democrats hold smaller leads over the BC Conservatives in the Fraser Valley (39% to 32%) and Southern BC (37% to 27%). In Northern BC, the two parties are virtually tied (BC Conservatives 40%, BC NDP 39%).

The BC NDP is leading across all three age groups in British Columbia. Among the opposition parties, the BC Conservatives do better with voters aged 18-to-34 (28%) and aged 35-to-54 (29%), while BC United is connecting well with voters aged 55 and over (27%).

As was the case in September, 39% of British Columbians (=) select housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (22%, =), the economy and jobs (17%, +5), crime and public safety (5%, -1) and the environment (4%, -2).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 53% (+1) this month. The proportions are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (34%, -2), BC Conservative leader John Rustad (32%, +7) and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (31%, +2).

Respondents to this survey were asked if they would consider supporting each of the four main provincial parties if they ran a candidate in their riding in the next provincial election. The BC Conservatives featured candidates in 10 of 87 constituencies in the 2017 provincial election, and in 19 of 87 ridings in the 2020 ballot.

Just over two-in-five British Columbians (41%, +4) would consider supporting the BC Conservatives. This rating is lower than what is observed for the governing BC NDP (54%, +3), but higher than the proportions of residents currently willing to vote for the BC Greens (34%, -1) and BC United (33%, +1).

About a third of British Columbians (32%, =) would like to see BC United and the Conservative Party of BC merging into a single party before this year’s provincial ballot, while 45% (+2) disagree and 23% (-2) are undecided.

A merger between the two centre-right parties would find the support of 56% of British Columbians who are planning to vote for BC United and 48% of those who are planning to back the BC Conservatives.

When British Columbians assess the leaders of the Conservative Party of BC and BC United, slightly more believe Falcon is better suited than Rustad to serve as official opposition leader after the next election (23% to 19%). The two contenders are practically tied when it comes to forming the provincial government (Rustad 20%, Falcon 19%).

Rustad is seen as the best option to attract five types of voters to his party: male voters (24%), voters aged 35-to-54 (23%), voters aged 55 and over (29%) and residents of Northern BC (26%) and the Fraser Valley (23%).

Falcon is ahead on five other categories: women (19%), voters aged 18-to-34 (21%), and residents of Metro Vancouver (25%), Southern BC (21%) and Vancouver Island (20%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from January 22 to January 24, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Close 2023 With 14-Point Lead in Canadian Politics

November 30, 2023November 30, 2023By Mario Canseco

A third of Canadians (32%) say Pierre Poilievre would make the “Best Prime Minister”, with Justin Trudeau in second place (23%).

Vancouver, BC [November 30, 2023] – The opposition Conservative Party has extended its advantage in Canada’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of decided voters would vote for the Conservative candidate in their constituency if an election were held tomorrow, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in September.

The governing Liberal Party is a distant second with 24% (-7), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) (21%, +3) the Bloc Québécois with 9% (+1), the Green Party with 4% (+1) and the People’s Party with 2% (+1).

The Conservatives are the most popular federal party in Alberta (58%), Atlantic Canada (47%), British Columbia (45%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (44%) and Ontario (42%). In Quebec, the Liberals are first (34%), followed by the Bloc (29%).

“The Conservatives and the New Democrats are holding on to most of their supporters from the last federal election (93% and 81% respectively),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 66% of Liberal voters in 2021 are staying with the party.”

Just under two-in-five Canadians (39%,-2) approve of the performance of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and Liberal leader. The rating is higher for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre (47%, +6) and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (48%, =).

Just over a third of Canadians (34%, +2) are satisfied with the way Green Party leader Elizabeth May is handling her duties. The proportions are lower for Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (21%, +1) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (19%, -1).

When Canadians are asked which one of the six party leaders would make the best prime minister, 32% select Poilievre (+4) while 23% choose Trudeau (-5). Singh is third on this indicator with 18% (+1), followed by May (4%, +1) and Bernier (2%, +1).

Almost three-in-ten Canadians (29%, +4) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the country right now—a proportion that rises to 34% in Ontario, 36% in British Columbia and 37% in Atlantic Canada.

The economy and jobs is second on the list of nationwide concerns (21%, +1), followed by health care (19%, -5), the environment (6%, -4) and immigration (6%, +3).

Almost half of Canadians (47%, +5) would be comfortable with Poilievre being in charge of Canada’s economy. Fewer than two-in-five (37%, -7) are comfortable with Trudeau at the helm.

Only 42% of Canadians (-2) are satisfied with what the Liberals and the NDP have accomplished since their March 2022 supply and confidence agreement—including 70% of Liberal voters in 2021 and 55% of NDP voters in the same federal election.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 25 to November 27, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Hutima

Almost Half of Vancouverites Report Worsening Quality of Life

November 15, 2023November 17, 2023By Mario Canseco

Just over half of the city’s residents (51%) approve of the performance of Ken Sim as Mayor.

Vancouver, BC [November 15, 2023] – While most residents of the City of Vancouver are pleased with the mayor, almost half say their quality of life has decreased over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 51% of Vancouverites approve of the way Ken Sim is handling his duties as Mayor, while 29% disapprove and 21% are undecided.

More than seven-in-ten Vancouverites who voted for Sim in the 2022 mayoral election (73%) are satisfied with his performance, along with 49% of those who cast a ballot for Kennedy Stewart of Forward Together and 34% of those who voted for any one of the 13 candidates who finished with less than 10% of all cast ballots in 2022.

Vancouverites were asked about the “State of the City” by rating the way 11 different issues have been managed over the past year.

More than half of the city’s residents perceive no change on three issues: parks and facilities (58%), public recreation and activities (57%) and public schools (54%). More than two-in-five (44%) also think the situation is “about the same” as it was last year on fiscal responsibility.

About a third of Vancouverites (32%) believe three issues are now worse than they were a year ago: jobs and economic development, the cleanliness of streets and road maintenance, and the influence of developers.

On four other issues, significant proportions of Vancouverites believe things are worse now than a year ago: public safety (44%), policies to deal with homelessness (46%), quality of life (also 46%) and housing affordability (60%).

“Only 8% of Vancouverites say their quality of life in the city is better now than a year ago,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In contrast, 49% of those aged 35-to-54 and 59% of those who live Downtown say things are worse now.”

Almost half of residents of the City of Vancouver (48%) identify housing as the most important issue, followed by drug overdoses (12%), crime (9%) and property taxes (also 9%).

Fewer Vancouverites mention other issues, including poverty (8%), jobs (5%), climate change (4%), transit (2%) and congestion (1%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from November 4 to November 6, 2023, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Trudeau and Harper Governments Split Views in British Columbia

November 1, 2023October 31, 2023By Mario Canseco

More than three-in-five (62%) think the allegations made by the current prime minister on India are believable.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2023] – More than half of British Columbians appear dissatisfied with the current federal administration, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 36% of British Columbians think the province has been treated “very well” or “well” by the federal government under Justin Trudeau, while more than half (52%) consider it has been treated “poorly” or “very poorly”.

When asked about the previous federal government, 40% of British Columbians believe the province was treated “very well” or “well” when Stephen Harper served as prime minister, while the same proportion (40%) claim it was treated “poorly” or “very poorly”.

“More than half of British Columbians aged 35-to-54 (53%) think the province has been treated poorly by the current prime minister,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 34% of them feel the same way about the previous head of government.”

The federal government currently features four ministers who represent constituencies in British Columbia.

About a third of British Columbians (32%) approve of the performance of Harjit Sajjan, Minister of Emergency Preparedness & Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada. The proportions are lower for Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources (29%), Carla Qualtrough, Minister of Sport and Physical Activity (28%) and Terry Beech, Minister of Citizens’ Services (24%).

The survey also assessed the perceptions of British Columbians on bilateral relations between Canada and India. Over the past month, 58% of the province’s residents have followed news stories related to this topic “very closely” or “moderately closely”—including 75% of those of South Asian origins.

In September, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revealed that Canadian intelligence services were investigating “credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India” and the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (62%) think the allegations made by Trudeau are “believable”, while 17% consider them “not believable” and 20% are undecided.

Majorities of British Columbians who voted for the Liberal Party (73%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (68%) and the Conservative Party (57%) in the 2021 federal election think Trudeau’s claims are “believable.”

Majorities of British Columbians express concern about the well-being of Canadians living in and travelling to India (58%), believe India should be included in the recently announced Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions (55%) and say their opinion of India has worsened as a result of these allegations (53%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2023, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Liberal-NDP Merger Would Not Hurt Conservatives in Canada

October 13, 2023October 13, 2023By Mario Canseco

Half of Canadians disagree with the two centre-left parties joining forces before the next election to the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [October 13, 2023] – A merged political organization encompassing the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) would still trail the Conservative Party in a Canadian federal campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample asked Canadians to ponder their options in a federal election if the Liberals and the New Democrats merged into a single party.

If the new party contested the election under current Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, the Conservatives would be in first place among decided voters with 42%, followed by the new party (36%), the Bloc Québécois (8%), the Green Party (also 8%) and the People’s Party (2%).

In this scenario, the merged Liberal-NDP party trails in Ontario (38% to 43%) and British Columbia (35% to 49%). In Quebec, the new party has a six-point lead over the Bloc (39% to 33%, with the Conservatives at 21%).

If the new party were headed by current NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, the Conservatives would still be ahead nationally (43%), followed by the merged Liberal-NDP party (36%), the Bloc (9%), the Greens (7%) and the People’s Party (2%).

Once again, the Conservatives have an advantage over the new party in Ontario (44% to 38%) and British Columbia (50% to 35%), but are third in Quebec (21%, with the new party at 36% and the Bloc at 35%).

“Canadians aged 35-to-54 are particularly unenthused about the prospect of a merged Liberal-NDP party contesting the next federal election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Among these voters, support for the new entity stands at 35% with Trudeau and at 31% with Singh.”

The survey also gauged three ideas that could materialize before the next federal election. Half of Canadians (50%) oppose a full merger between the Liberals and the NDP, while 36% are in favour.

Support for a true merger between the two parties stands at 56% among Liberal voters in the last federal election and at 36% among those who cast ballots for NDP candidates in 2021.

The notion of the Liberals and the NDP only running candidates from one of the two parties in every riding in Canada is backed by 35% of Canadians and rejected by 49%. Conservative voters in 2021 are particularly opposed to this idea (70%).

Just under half of Canadians (48%) would support a formal agreement between the Liberals and the New Democrats to share power in a coalition government, while 43% disagree and 10% are undecided.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 6 to October 8, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490

[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Manitoba Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

October 5, 2023October 4, 2023By Mario Canseco

A third of NDP voters cited “change” as the main motivator behind their decision. “Stability” was important for only 19% of PC voters.

Vancouver, BC [October 6, 2023] – In the democratic processes held in Ontario and Quebec in 2022, it was apparent by the mid-way point of each campaign that the governing parties would be returned to power. Alberta in 2023 was different, as the televised debate enabled a premier who had not been tested at the ballot box to ultimately succeed in courting voters.

In Manitoba, the Progressive Conservatives also had an opportunity to re-connect with the electorate. The televised debate, however, did not help Heather Stefanson. In our final poll, we saw virtually no movement on her approval numbers from what was observed in mid-September. There was also an increase in the proportion of likely voters who regarded New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew as the “Best Premier” for the province.

It is usual for voters in a provincial election to be primarily drawn by the ideas and policies of contending parties. Manitoba was not different in this regard, with 44% of PC voters and 40% of NDP voters saying that “ideas and policies” were the most important factor in their decision.

The significant discrepancy arrives on two other indicators. One third of NDP voters (33%) say their main motivation was a “desire for change”, while just under one-in-five PC voters (19%) mentioned a “desire for stability”. Other issues, such as the party’s leader (NDP 12%, PC 10%) and the party’s candidate in their riding (NDP 6%, PC 9%) did not register as much.

The three previous provincial elections saw the same premiers returned to power. In Quebec, “desire for change” was the main motivator for 20% of Québec solidaire voters. The numbers on this indicator were decidedly lower in Ontario (14% and 12% respectively among NDP and Liberal voters) and Alberta (9% among NDP voters). Opposition voters may have been upset with the status quo, but found it difficult to imagine their respective provinces under a different head of government.

Our “Exit Poll” in Manitoba shows that almost seven-in-ten voters in the province (69%) thought it was time for a change of government. In addition, two-in-five (40%) claim to be “very upset” because the NDP will be in charge of the provincial administration once more. There is some resistance among PC voters who look at their party in opposition for the first time since 2016, but not overwhelming animosity towards the provincial NDP.

Research Co.’s province-wide prediction was within the margin of error advertised for all parties. While our final survey was correct in foreseeing a majority of voters in Winnipeg casting a ballot for the NDP, it fell short in pinpointing the final level of support the Progressive Conservatives would garner in the remaining constituencies.

Finally, more than seven-in-ten voters in Manitoba claim to have voted to support policies they like (72%) and for a candidate or party they liked (74%). The electorate appears more fractured on a separate item, in which 66% of voters claim that the province will be “in a bad place” under a specific governing party. The proportions are practically the same among PC and NDP voters. The difference lies on how many more Manitobans cast ballots for one of these parties.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 3 and October 4, 2023, among 500 adults in Manitoba who voted in the 2023 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day

October 2, 2023October 5, 2023By Mario Canseco

Wab Kinew has overtaken Heather Stefanson when likely voters ponder who would make the best head of government.

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2023] – The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a significant advantage over the governing Progressive Conservative Party in Manitoba, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, 48% of decided voters in Manitoba would cast a ballot for the NDP candidate in their constituency or have already done so, up seven points since the previous Research Co. survey conducted in mid-September.

The Progressive Conservatives are second with 39% (=), followed by the Liberal Party with 10% (-4), the Green Party with 2% (-1) and other parties and independents with 1% (-1).

Majorities of decided voters aged 18-to-34 (52%) and aged 35-to-54 (55%) are currently supporting the NDP, as well as 55% of those who reside in Winnipeg. The Progressive Conservatives do better in the rest of Manitoba (48%) and are practically tied with the New Democrats among decided voters aged 55 and over (44% to 43%).

More than four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (87%) say they will not change their mind before participating in the democratic process tomorrow.

The approval rating for Official Opposition and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew stands at 51% in the final stages of the campaign (+4). The numbers are lower for Liberal Party leader Dougald Lamont (38%, +2), Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Heather Stefanson (36%, -1) and Green Party leader Janine Gibson (18%, =).

Almost two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (38%, +9) think Kinew would make the “Best Premier” of the province. Stefanson is second with 30% (=), followed by Lamont (11%, -3) and Gibson (3%, +1).

Perceptions of Stefanson have become more negative, with 38% of likely voters saying their opinion of her has worsened since the start of the campaign. This gives Stefanson a momentum score of -27, compared to -7 for Lamont, -5 for Gibson and +6 for Kinew.

Health care remains the most important issue for two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (40%, -1), followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (20%, +3), the economy and jobs (15%, +1) and crime and public safety (13%, +1).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Manitoba, including 557 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Ken Eckert

BC NDP First, Tight Race for Second Place in British Columbia

September 26, 2023November 28, 2023By Mario Canseco

Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue for practically two-in-five of the province’s residents.

Vancouver, BC [September 26, 2023] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of all challengers in British Columbia’s political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 48% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding if an election took place today, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May.

Two political parties are virtually tied for second place in the province: BC United with 20% (-13) and the Conservative Party of BC with 19% (+15). The BC Green Party is fourth with 12% (-4), while 1% of decided voters (=) would support other parties or independent candidates.

The BC NDP is in first place across all five major regions of the province, with higher support in Metro Vancouver (51%) and Vancouver Island (48%). The BC Conservatives are now second in the Fraser Valley (26%) and Northern BC (23%), while BC United is behind the BC NDP in Southern BC (29%).

“Almost one-in-five British Columbians (18%) do not know who to vote for in a provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In our February and May surveys, only 10% of respondents were undecided.”

More than a third of British Columbians (37%, +12) say they would consider casting a ballot for the BC Conservatives. The rating on this question is lower for the BC Greens (35%, -2) and BC United (32%, -14), but higher for the BC NDP (51%, -10).

Just over half of British Columbians (52%, -7) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby is handling his duties. More than a third (36%, -4) feel the same way about BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau, while the proportions are lower for BC United leader Kevin Falcon (29%, -9) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (25%, +7).

Just under two-in-five British Columbians (39%, +7) think housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province right now, followed by health care (22%, -16), the economy and jobs (12%, =), crime and public safety (6%, -8) and the environment (also 6%, +2).

About a third of British Columbians (32%) would like to see BC United and the Conservative Party of BC merging into a single party before the next provincial election, while 43% disagree and 25% are undecided.

The notion of a merger between BC United and the BC Conservatives is more popular among men (38%), residents of Northern BC (also 38%), British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (42%) and BC Liberal voters in the 2020 provincial election (54%).

When pondering the leaders of BC United and the Conservative Party of BC, more than one-in-five British Columbians believe Falcon is better suited than Rustad to form the government after the next election (21%) and serve as official opposition leader (22%).

Falcon is currently regarded as better suited to attract six types of voters to BC United: women (20%), voters aged 18-to-34 (19%), voters aged 35-to-54 (22%) and residents of Metro Vancouver (24%), the Fraser Valley (20%) and Southern BC (also 20%).

Rustad is seen as better suited to attract male voters (20%), voters aged 55 and over (24%) and residents in Northern BC (20%) to the BC Conservatives.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 17 to September 19, 2023, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

British Columbians See “Fake News” and Polarization as Threats

September 20, 2023September 25, 2023By Mario Canseco

About two thirds of residents also think the state of democracy in Canada is endangered by low voter turnout in elections.

Vancouver, BC [September 20, 2023] – Three-in-four residents of British Columbia are concerned about the effect of two issues in Canada, a new Research Co. poll conducted in partnership with the “Strengthening Democracy” initiative has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 76% of British Columbians think “fake news” featured on social media and online publications is “definitely” or “probably” a threat to the state of democracy in Canada, while 75% feel the same way about polarization, or political attitudes becoming more extreme.

More than two thirds of British Columbians also deem three other issues as threats to democracy in Canada: racism and discrimination (70%), low engagement from citizens on important issues (68%) and low voter turnout in democratic processes (67%).

Majorities of British Columbians are also preoccupied with the actions of government being perceived as limiting personal freedom (60%) and hyper partisanship, or political parties disagreeing intensely with each other (59%). Only 32% of the province’s residents believe immigration endangers the state of democracy in Canada.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) rate the state of democracy in Canada as “very good” or “good”, while 29% consider it “bad” or “very bad.”

“More than a third of British Columbians aged 35-to-54 (35%) are not pleased with the state of democracy in Canada right now,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (27%) and aged 55 and over (26%).”

The survey also gauged support for five ideas related to municipal politics in British Columbia.

Majorities of the province’s residents agree with three proposals: allowing permanent residents who have lived in a municipality for at least six months to vote in municipal elections (62%), compelling media outlets to provide a specific number of minutes (in the case of radio and television) or articles (in the case of print and online journalism) solely devoted to municipal issues (59%) and having elected councillors who represent a specific portion of the municipality (also known as wards), instead of voting for several at-large councillors (56%).

Two other ideas are more contentious, with 50% of British Columbians agreeing with abolishing political parties or “slates” and having every candidate for mayor, council or school board run as independents, and 47% agreeing with making voting mandatory for all citizens in municipal elections.

Majorities of British Columbians think their municipal governments (53%) and the provincial government (also 53%) are very responsive” or “moderately responsive” to their needs and the needs of other residents. The rating is significantly lower (40%) for the federal government.

Over the past year, only 31% of British Columbians have engaged directly with their municipality on a specific issue, such as reporting a problem, seeking a permit or obtaining a business license. More than half of these residents (54%) are satisfied with the way their issue was dealt with by their municipality, while 43% are dissatisfied.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 4 to September 6, 2023, among 813 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues

September 18, 2023September 17, 2023By Mario Canseco

Wab Kinew seen as the best leader to handle health care, while Heather Stefanson scores well on the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 18, 2023] – There is no clear frontrunner in Manitoba’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, 41% of decided voters in Manitoba would support the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), while 39% would back the governing Progressive Conservative Party.

The Liberal Party is third with 14%, followed by the Green Party with 3%. Across the province, 2% of decided voters would cast ballots for independents or candidates from other parties.

“On two specific age groups, Manitoba’s election is remarkably close,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats and the Progressive Conservatives are separated by two points or less among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42% to 40%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (43% to 42%).”

Fewer than one-in-four decided voters in Manitoba (23%) say they may change their mind and support a different party or candidate in this election—including 14% of those who currently plan to vote for the Progressive Conservatives and 18% of those who currently plan to support the New Democrats.

Just under half of likely voters in Manitoba (47%) approve of the way Official Opposition and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew is handling his duties. The rating is lower for Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Heather Stefanson (37%), Liberal Party leader Dougald Lamont (36%) and Green Party leader Janine Gibson (18%).

Kinew is the only leader with a positive momentum score since the start of the campaign (+2, with 24% of likely voters in Manitoba saying their opinion of him has improved). Lamont is at -4, Gibson at -8 and Stefanson at -23 (with 34% of likely voters saying their opinion of her has worsened).

Likely voters in Manitoba are profoundly divided when asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, with Stefanson practically tied with Kinew (30% to 29%), followed by Lamont (14%) and Gibson (2%).

Just over two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (41%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province—a proportion that rises to 57% among those aged 55 and over.

Housing, poverty and homelessness is second on the list of concerns in the province (17%), followed by the economy and jobs (14%), crime and public safety (also 14%) and the environment (4%).

Kinew is ahead of Stefanson when likely voters in Manitoba are asked who would be the best person to manage health care (40% to 26%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 25%). Stefanson leads Kinew on the economy and jobs (31% to 27%) and energy (30% to 26%).

The difference between the two leaders is negligible or inexistent on four other areas of concern: the environment (Kinew 25%, Stefanson 24%), government accountability (Kinew 28%, Stefanson 27%), crime and public safety (Kinew 33%, Stefanson 31%) and education (each contender at 31%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 15 to September 17, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Manitoba, including 539 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca