Conservatives Have Four-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

Canadians are evenly split when assessing the accomplishments of the Liberals and the NDP following their March 2022 agreement.

Vancouver, BC [October 31, 2022] – The opposition Conservative Party is ahead in Canada’s federal political scene, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 35% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The governing Liberal Party is in second place with 31%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 19%, the Bloc Québécois with 8%, the Green Party with 4% and the People’s Party with 2%.

The Conservatives hold sizeable leads in their traditional strongholds of Alberta (51%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%) and are also first in Ontario (41%) and British Columbia (37%). The Liberals are leading in Quebec (38%, with the Bloc at 32%) and Atlantic Canada (38%).

“Among Canadian decided voters aged 55 and over, the Conservatives have a double-digit lead over the Liberals (41% to 30%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The race is much closer among younger voters.”

More than two-in-five Canadians (44%) approve of the performance of Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau while just over half (51%) disapprove.

The approval rating is higher this month for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (46%, -5 since the last Research Co. survey conducted before the 2021 federal election).

More than a third of Canadians (37%) approve of the way Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has handled his duties, while 44% disagree and 19% are undecided.

The numbers are lower for Green interim leader Amita Kuttner (22%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (20%, and 38% in Quebec) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (18%).

Practically three-in-ten Canadians (29%, +7 since September 2021) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing Canada, followed by housing, homelessness and poverty (21%, +6), health care (also 21%, -6), the environment (7%, -3), accountability and leadership (5%, -1), immigration (4%, +1) and crime and public safety (also 4%, +1).

The economy and jobs is regarded as the most pressing federal concern for residents of Alberta (38%), Quebec (33%), Ontario (30%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 30%).

Health care is the prevalent issue for Atlantic Canadians (35%), while housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter in British Columbia (33%).

When asked which one of the six main party leaders would make the best prime minister of Canada, Trudeau holds a six-point advantage over Poilievre (30% to 24%), followed by Singh (17%), Blanchet (4%), Bernier (2%) and Kuttner (1%).

Residents of two provinces are almost evenly divided on whether Trudeau or Poilievre would be the best head of government for Canada right now. In Ontario, Poilievre is a point ahead of Trudeau (30% to 29%). In British Columbia, the current prime minister edges the opposition leader by the same margin (27% to 26%).

More than two-in-five Canadians (43%) say they are comfortable with Trudeau being charge of Canada’s economy, a proportion that rises to 45% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 52% in Quebec.

Just under two-in-five Canadians (39%) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being charge of Canada’s economy, including 48% of Albertans and 43% of Ontarians.

There is no clear consensus on what the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP has meant to Canada so far. Across the country, 44% are satisfied with the accomplishments of this deal, while the same proportion (44%) are dissatisfied.

Liberal voters in the 2021 federal election are significantly more likely to hold positive views on the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement (80%) than those who voted for the New Democrats (51%) or the Conservatives (13%).

The country is also divided on whether a federal election should be called in the next six months now that the Conservatives have a full time leader (Agree 44%, Disagree 41%).

Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in the last federal election are more convinced about the need to hold a fresh ballot now (73%) than their counterparts who supported the NDP (44%) or the Liberals (30%) in 2021.


Results are based on an online study conducted from October 24 to October 26, 2022, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e]