Elections – Page 10 – Research Co.

Quebec: Who Won and Why

October 2, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

The 42nd General Election in Quebec has ended with a new governing party, a difficult road ahead for the Liberals, and renewed questions about the future of the sovereignty issue.

The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) will form a majority government after capturing 37 per cent of the vote in the province. Francois Legault will take over as premier from Liberal leader Philippe Couillard, whose party saw its share of the vote fall from 42 per cent in 2014 to 25 per cent this year.

The Parti Québécois (PQ) was unable to garner the backing of one-in-five voters (17 per cent) and experienced its worst result in history. Québec solidaire increased its seat count in the National Assembly from three to 10 members.

This election was a contest of generations. In the final Research Co. voting intention survey, the incumbent Liberals were the top choice for voters aged 55 and over (36%). Those aged 35-to-54 were more likely to cast a ballot for the CAQ (also 36%). The youngest voters—aged 18-to-34—were enthralled by Québec solidaire (33%).

In spite of their political and ideological differences, all generations agreed that it was time for something new. The sentiment for change among voters in Quebec was 68 per cent in the final poll and was remarkably similar among age groups (69% for Millennials, 66% for Generation X and 69% for Baby Boomers).

The proportion of Quebecers who were ready to see a new party in power is similar to what was observed on the eve of Manitoba’s 2015 provincial election (69%), but lower than the numbers seen in Ontario 2018 (77%) and Alberta 2015 (82%). Only British Columbia (61% in 2017) had a smaller proportion of voters advocating for a change of government.

In this century, Quebec’s “shakeup” elections featured a winning party with just a third of the vote. In 2007, the tenure of Jean Charest and the Liberals barely survived with 33 per cent of the vote. In 2012, 32 per cent of voters favoured the PQ and allowed Pauline Marois to become the first female premier in the province’s history. The 2018 election was different, as the share of the vote for the CAQ was higher than it was for the winning parties in 2007 and 2012.

The Research Co. “Exit Poll” asked Quebecers who cast a ballot in the provincial contest about their main motivations. As has been customary in previous Canadian elections, most voters across the province are moved by “the party’s ideas and policies” (43%), followed by “the party’s leader” (19%) and a “desire for change” (17%). Analyzing the motivations by party outlines some of the reasons for the success of the soon-to-be-governing party.

Among CAQ voters, 34 per cent say “desire for change” was their main motivation—a significantly higher proportion than what is reported by other opposition supporters. “Ideas and policies” is a close second (33%), followed by “the party’s leader” at 21 per cent. The CAQ was regarded as the vehicle for change, and it was successful in courting voters who previously favoured the Liberals or the PQ.

Liberal voters clearly had a good connection with outgoing premier Couillard (24% say “the party’s leader” was the main motivation for their vote). A larger proportion voted based on “ideas and policies” (39%), and one-in-five (20%) expressed a “desire for stability”.

For PQ supporters, “ideas and policies” was the main motivator (50%), followed by “the party’s leader” (17%) and “desire for change” (16%). On both of the latter indicators, the PQ ranks lower than the CAQ. Sovereignty was not a ballot issue this time around, and the PQ clearly lost votes to other contenders. The party has four years to decide where it goes, with a significantly reduced caucus and in search of a new leader.

Finally, Québec solidaire successfully attracted young voters. A whopping 67 per cent of their supporters say they cast a ballot based on “ideas and policies”, with “desire for change” (12%) and “disgust with other parties” (11%) rounding up the top three reasons. In spite of the victories, there is a dark cloud: only five per cent of Québec solidaire voters say “the party’s leader” was the main motivator for their vote.

Credit: Christophe Pinot

CAQ Edges Ahead as Quebec Voters Set to Cast Ballots

September 30, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

François Legault holds the upper hand when Quebecers are asked who would make the best premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 30, 2018] – On the eve of Quebec’s provincial election, the opposition Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) remains ahead of all other contending parties, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 33% of decided voters in Quebec (+1 since a Research Co. survey concluded on September 22) will support the CAQ candidate in their constituency.

The governing Liberal Party of Quebec is second with 30% (=), followed by the Parti Québécois with 18% (-1) and Québec solidaire with 16% (=).

Québec solidaire is the most popular party among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (33%). More than a third of decided voters aged 35-to-54 (36%) are favouring the CAQ, while those aged 55 and over prefer the Liberals (36%).

“There is a clear generational divide among voters in Quebec,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The election appears similar to the electoral processes of 2008 and 2012, where no party was able to reach the 40 per cent threshold.”

Almost two-in-five of decided voters who reside in the Montreal Metropolitan Community (39%) would support the Liberals tomorrow, while the CAQ is ahead in both the Quebec Metropolitan Community (43%) and the rest of the province (38%).

The incumbent Liberals are only holding on to 56% of the decided voters that supported them in the last provincial election, with 29% now choosing the CAQ. The Parti Québécois keeps 59% of its 2014 voters, with a third going to either the CAQ (20%) or Québec solidaire (12%).

When asked who would make the best premier of Quebec, 30% of respondents select Coalition Avenir Québec leader François Legault.

Premier and Quebec Liberal Party leader Philippe Couillard is second with 23%, followed by Parti Québécois and Official Opposition leader Jean-François Lisée with 12%, and Manon Massé of Québec solidaire with 11%.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 28 to September 30, 2018, among 625 Quebec adults, including 550 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Quebec. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

CAQ and Liberals Engaged in Tight Race in Quebec

September 24, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Half of Quebecers believe health care is the most important issue facing the province.

Vancouver, BC [September 24, 2018] – The opposition Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) holds a slight edge in the lead up to Quebec’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 32% of decided voters in Quebec say they will cast a ballot for the CAQ candidate in their riding, while 30% would support the Liberal Party of Quebec on October 1.

The Parti Québécois is a distant third with 19%, followed by Québec solidaire with 16%. Three per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

The CAQ holds a three-point edge over the Liberals among male voters (32% to 29%), while the Liberals are slightly ahead among female voters (33% to 31%).

The approval rating for Premier and Quebec Liberal Party leader Philippe Couillard stands at 35%. The number is higher for both Coalition Avenir Québec leader François Legault (40%) and Parti Québécois and Official Opposition leader Jean-François Lisée (37%).

Lisée has the best momentum score f the three main party leaders (+3, with 20% of Quebecers saying their opinion of him has improved since the start of the campaign, while 17% say it has worsened). Couillard checks in at -20 and Legault at -17.

Health care is regarded as the most important issue facing the province (50%), followed by the economy and jobs (9%), the environment (also 9%), education (8%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (7%).

When asked who would make the best premier of Quebec, Couillard is first with 26% followed by Legault with 24% and Lisée with 16%.

“The race is very close heading into the final week of the Quebec campaign,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The CAQ is ahead by a small margin, but Legault has not overtaken incumbent premier Couillard as the best person to head the government.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 19 to September 22, 2018, among 601 Quebec adults, including 522 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Quebec. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Stewart Holds the Upper Hand in Vancouver Mayoral Race

September 19, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Two thirds of residents say housing is the most important issue facing the city.

Vancouver, BC [September 19, 2018] – With just over a month to go before Vancouverites elect their new mayor, the absence of a contender from the governing Vision Vancouver party appears to have benefited independent candidate Kennedy Stewart, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 36% of decided voters say they will vote for Stewart in next month’s election, up 11 points since a Research Co. poll conducted in July.

Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is in second place with 25% (-1), followed by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 17% (+6), Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver with 7% (+2) and David Chen of ProVancouver with 4% (=).

Support is lower for Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (3%, -5), Fred Harding of Vancouver First (also 3%) and Connie Fogal of Idea Vancouver (2%).

The level of undecided voters in the City of Vancouver stands at 31% this month.

The survey was conducted after the final list of mayoral candidates was released by the city on September 14. Vision Vancouver mayoral contender Ian Campbell—who had the support of 18% of decided voters in July—withdrew from the race on September 10.

Stewart holds a 23-point lead over Sim among female decided voters (44% to 21%), while Sim is slightly ahead of Stewart among male decided voters (32% to 29%).

“The departure of Ian Campbell from the mayoral race has definitely helped Stewart, who currently has the support of 45% of Vancouverites who voted for Gregor Robertson in the last mayoral election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Sim is connecting well with the NPA’s traditional base, and is holding on to 49% of the voters who supported Kirk LaPointe in 2014.”

Across the city, two thirds of residents (67%) believe housing is the most important issue facing Vancouver, followed by transportation (9%), poverty (also 9%) and economic development (5%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 15 to September 18, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Greens, Independents Surge in Vancouver Council Election

September 11, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Almost half of residents would like to see several parties represented in City Council.

Vancouver, BC [September 11, 2018] – As Vancouverites consider their choices in the election to City Council, the parties that traditionally formed the government in the city are not particularly popular, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 46% say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for Green Party of Vancouver candidates in next month’s election to City Council, while 39% will “definitely” or “probably” cast ballots for independent candidates.

About a third of Vancouverites (32%) would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for City Council candidates from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE). The ranking is lower for Vision Vancouver (30%), the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) (also 30%), Yes Vancouver (24%), One City (19%), Coalition Vancouver (13%), Vancouver First (12%) and ProVancouver (9%).

“The Green Party is definitely outperforming all others in Vancouver when it comes to City Council,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “There is also a large component of the electorate that is currently looking into independent candidates as viable options.”

Almost half of Vancouverites (47%, -3 since April) would “definitely” or “probably” prefer to see several parties represented in City Council, while 38% (+3 since April) would prefer a single party having a majority.

The survey was conducted before Ian Campbell of Vision Vancouver announced he was dropping out of the mayoral race. Across the city, the best ranked candidate is independent Kennedy Stewart with a score of +13 (23% think he is a “good choice” for mayor, while 10% deem him a “bad choice”).

Only two other candidates currently hold a positive score: independent Shauna Sylvester at +11 (19% “good”, 8% “bad”) and Ken Sim of the NPA at +4 (18% “good”, 14% “bad”).

David Chen of ProVancouver is even (11% “good”, 11% “bad”). The remaining candidates post negative scores, including Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (-16), Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver (-2) and Fred Harding of Vancouver First (also -2).

Vancouverites were also asked how much confidence they have in each of the declared mayoral candidates to help make Vancouver housing more affordable.

Stewart is also ahead, with 33% of residents expressing “complete confidence” or “some confidence” in his ability, followed by Bremner (26%), Sylvester (also 26%), Sim (24%), Harding (22%), Chen (21%) and Young (19%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from September 4 to September 7, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Sim and Stewart Nearly Tied, Many Still Undecided in Vancouver

July 19, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Vancouverites think housing affordability and the influence of developers are worse in their city than in other Metro Vancouver municipalities.

Vancouver, BC [July 19, 2018] – With three months to go before Vancouverites select a new mayor and council, two candidates have solidified their position as early frontrunners, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 26% of decided voters say they will support Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA), while 25% will cast a ballot for independent candidate Kennedy Stewart.

Ian Campbell of Vision Vancouver is third with 20%, followed by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 11%, Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver with 8%, Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver with 5% and David Chen of ProVancouver with 4%.

The level of undecided voters in the City of Vancouver has dropped, from 47% in the June Research Co. survey, to 35% this month. The survey was conducted entirely after Patrick Condon, who was seeking the mayoral nod for the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE), announced he was withdrawing from the race.

Among decided voters, Sim is ahead among men (32%), residents of the West Side (31%) and those aged 55 and over (36%). Conversely, Stewart holds the upper hand among women (30%), residents of the East Side (29%) and Downtown (32%), and those aged 35-to-54 (31%).

“There are still many voters who are in the process of getting to know the contenders,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost two thirds (63%) feel they do not have enough information about candidates and parties to cast all their votes in the municipal election.”

When asked about specific issues, four-in-five Vancouverites (82%) think housing affordability is worse in their city than in other Metro Vancouver municipalities, and more than half (57%) feel the same way about the influence of developers.

Two-in-five Vancouverites (40%) think quality of life is better in their city, and three-in-ten (30%) believe public safety is also superior.

Only 29% of Vancouverites are satisfied with the actions taken by the federal government to deal with housing issues in their city. The satisfaction rating is higher for both the municipal government (32%) and the provincial government (38%).

Three-in-ten Vancouverites (31%) agree with the idea of all Metro Vancouver municipalities amalgamating into one, like Toronto and Montreal have, while almost half (48%) disagree with this notion.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from July 13 to July 16, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Stewart, Sim and Campbell Battle in Vancouver Race

June 14, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Almost half of Vancouverites are undecided when asked which one of eight mayoral hopefuls would get their vote this year.

Vancouver, BC [June 14, 2018] – With just over four months to go before Vancouver elects a new mayor, many of the city’s residents are undecided, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 47% of respondents are not sure who they would vote for if the mayoral election took place tomorrow.

Among decided voters, New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Parliament Kennedy Stewart is in first place with 26%, followed by Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) with 23%, and Ian Campbell of Vision Vancouver with 18%

Support is lower for current NPA councillor Hector Bremner (10%), independent Shauna Sylvester (9%), prospective Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) candidate Patrick Condon (8%), David Chen of ProVancouver (4%) and Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (3%).

Male decided voters are more likely to be supporting Sim at this stage (30% to 22% for Stewart), while Stewart is ahead among female decided voters (29%, with Campbell in second place at 18%).

Stewart is seen as a “good choice” to become mayor by 18% of residents (+8 since late April), followed by Campbell (17%), Sim (16%), Bremner (11%, =) and Sylvester (also 11%, +4). Condon (8%), Young (7%, +1) and Chen (5%) are in single digits.

When asked about specific political parties, a majority of Vancouverites (54%, +6 since early April) have a positive opinion of the Green Party of Vancouver.

The rating is lower for Vision Vancouver (31%, +5), the NPA (30%, -2), COPE (28%, +1), One City (17%, +3), Coalition Vancouver (also 17%) and ProVancouver (11%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from June 9 to June 11, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Xicotencatl

Ontario: Who Won and Why?

June 8, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Originally published in National Observer on June 8, 2018.

The 2018 Ontario provincial election has delivered a majority government for the Progressive Conservative Party, gave the New Democrats official Opposition status and raised questions about the viability of the Liberal Party, which was reduced to single digits in seats.

A Research Co. exit poll, comprising the views of 503 Ontarians who cast a ballot in this electoral process, shows the different motivations of voters, as well as the effect of the events of the final week of campaigning, which included Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Saturday concession and the $16.5-million lawsuit filed by Rob Ford’s widow.

One of the traits that made this provincial election so compelling was the answer to the “time for change” question, especially when compared to other recent ballots. In Alberta and Manitoba, we saw many voters (82 per cent and 67 per cent respectively) embrace opposition leaders and abandon sitting governments. In Saskatchewan, the incumbent premier had little trouble holding on to a massive majority. In British Columbia, three-in-five voters wanted change in an election that resulted in a tie on the popular vote.

Ontario was decidedly different. More than three-in-five voters (77 per cent) said it was time for a change in government (five points lower than the 82 per cent observed in Alberta in 2015, and eight points higher than Manitoba in 2016). The sentiment for change was astonishingly high for both PC and NDP voters (94 per cent and 92 per cent respectively). However, one third of Liberal voters (33 per cent) also thought it was time for new leadership in the province, a sign of a base that perhaps grew unenthusiastic after the sitting premier acknowledged she would lose the election in the final weekend of the campaign.

Wynne’s plea for Liberal votes without a Liberal government seemed to split the public on the concept of “strategic voting”. Across the province, 45 per cent of Ontarians said they voted for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they disliked, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference.

The proportion of “strategic voters” was highest among NDP supporters (55 per cent), who ended up becoming the official opposition. Andrea Horwath held a higher approval rating than the other three leaders in the last two weeks of the campaign, much in the same way Jack Layton posted impressive numbers on this question before the 2011 federal election. Both ended up taking their parties from third place to second place.

When it comes to the lawsuit against PC leader Doug Ford, the effect was negligible. Perceptions about the party’s leader were positive enough to facilitate a victory. When asked about six possible motivators for their vote, one-in-four PC voters (25 per cent) said the most important factor was “the party’s leader.” Among both Liberal and NDP voters, this factor was ranked lower, at 22 per cent.

Liberal voters were more likely to say the most important factor was “the party’s candidate in the riding” (20 per cent, compared to a paltry 10 per cent and seven per cent among NDP and PC voters respectively). Incumbent ministers and long-time serving legislators sought to establish a powerful connection with some of the Liberal base, especially after Wynne appealed for a balance of power.

“The party’s ideas and policies” is, by far, the most important factor for supporters of the three main parties (44 per cent for Liberals, 39 per cent for NDP and 34 per cent for PC). “Desire for change” moved 19 per cent of PC voters and 13 per cent of NDP voters, but the New Democrats also benefitted—although not enough to score an upset win—from the 15 per cent of voters who said “disgust with other contending candidates” was their main motivating factor—a far higher proportion than the PCs (10 per cent) and the Liberals (five per cent).

Finally, we look at the situation that led to Doug Ford becoming leader of the Progressive Conservatives. Among all voters in the election, 37 per cent said they would have voted for the Progressive Conservatives if Patrick Brown was still their leader. This includes 59 per cent of those who ended up casting a ballot for the Ford-led party, but also a sizeable proportion of Ontarians who ended up voting for the NDP (32 per cent) and the Liberals (27 per cent). This would suggest that Brown, even after the allegations that forced him to quit as leader, would have had a similar result as Ford.

Polling methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on June 6 and June 7, 2018 among 503 Ontario adults who voted in the 2018 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Credit: DrRandomFactor

Progressive Conservatives Hold Edge in Ontario Ballot

June 6, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Women and voters aged 18-to-34 prefer the New Democrats, while the PC Party leads with men and voters aged 35 and over.

Vancouver, BC [June 6, 2018] – The Progressive Conservative party heads to tomorrow’s provincial ballot in Ontario with a slight lead, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 39% of decided voters (+1 since a late May Research Co. survey) will cast a ballot for the PC candidate in their riding.

The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 37% (-2), followed by the governing Ontario Liberal Party with 20% (+2), and the Ontario Green Party with 4% (=).

In the 416 region, the Progressive Conservatives have a two-point edge over the NDP (39% to 37%). In the 905 region, the PCs are clearly ahead of the New Democrats (43% to 32%).

The NDP is the first choice for decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39%, compared to the Progressive Conservatives at 31%). The PCs are ahead of the New Democrats among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (40% to 36%) and voters aged 55 and over (41% to 37%).

There is a palpable gender gap in this election. Among men, the Progressive Conservatives are the first choice (42%, with the NDP a distant second at 31%). Among women, the New Democrats are ahead (36%, with the PCs at 29%).

NDP leader Andrea Horwath continues to hold the highest approval rating in the province (54%, +2), followed by Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford (36%, +3), Liberal Party leader Kathleen Wynne (29%, +2) and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (22%, +2).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from June 4 to June 6, 2018 among 661 Ontario adults, including 608 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: K.lee.

No Clear Frontrunner as Ontario Campaign Enters Final Week

June 1, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Andrea Horwath has a higher approval rating and momentum score, but Doug Ford is seen as a superior economic manager.

Vancouver, BC [June 1, 2018] – Voters in Ontario are almost evenly divided between two options to change their government, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 39% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency in this month’s provincial election, while 38% will support the Ontario Progressive Conservatives.

The governing Ontario Liberal Party is a distant third with 18%, followed by the Ontario Green Party with 4%.

Only 30% of Ontarians who voted for the Liberals in the 2014 provincial election are sticking with the party this year. The Liberals are losing more than a third of last election’s voters (37%) to the New Democrats and one-in-five (20%) to the Progressive Conservatives.

NDP leader Andrea Horwath has the highest approval rating of all contending leaders (52%), followed by PC leader Doug Ford (33%), incumbent Premier and Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne (27%) and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (20%).

Horwath also has the highest momentum score of all leaders at +9 (27% of Ontarians say their opinion of the provincial NDP leader has improved since the start of the campaign, while 18% say it has worsened). On this indicator, Ford is at -35 and Wynne at -27.

When asked who would make the best premier for the province, 28% of Ontarians select Horwath, while 23% choose Ford. Wynne is once again third with 15%, followed by Schreiner with 3%.

Ontarians regard Ford as the best person to handle the economy (32%), provincial finances (30%), hydro (also 30%), jobs (29%), crime and public safety (27%), transportation projects (25%), and energy and pipelines (also 25%), while Horwath is ahead on dealing with housing, homelessness and poverty (36%), seniors care (35%), health care (33%), child care (30%) and education (28%).

Horwath and Ford are almost even on accountability (26% and 25% respectively), while Horwath and Schreiner are practically tied on the environment (22% and 21% respectively).

The most important issue facing Ontario is heath care (24%), followed by the economy and jobs (21%), housing, poverty and homelessness (18%) and government accountability (14%).

“This election is particularly close because of the performance the two main opposition parties,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “Doug Ford has retained a sizeable proportion of voters who backed his party four years ago, while more than half of Liberal voters from 2014 currently approve of Horwath’s performance as leader of the NDP.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from May 29 to May 31, 2018, among 701 Ontario adults, including 603 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Andrijko Z.

Carr Extends Lead as Preferred Mayoral Contender in Vancouver

May 3, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

Half of Vancouverites would like to see a single mayoral candidate supported by Vision Vancouver, the Greens, One City and COPE this year.

Vancouver, BC [May 3, 2018] – Green Party of Vancouver councillor Adriane Carr remains the most popular prospective mayoral contender in the city, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, more than a third of Vancouverites (35%) think Carr would be a “good choice” for Mayor—a nine-point increase since a Research Co. poll conducted in early April.

Only four other prospective contenders reach double digits on this question: current Vision Vancouver councillor Raymond Louie (19%), independent Jean Swanson (17%, +1), current Non-Partisan Association (NPA) councillor Hector Bremner (11%, +5) and current New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Parliament Kennedy Stewart (10%).

One-in-five Vancouverites (22%) think Louie would be a “bad choice” for Mayor, while 16% (+4) feel the same way about Bremner.

Positive perceptions increased for two other prospective contenders: current Park Board commissioner John Coupar of the NPA (9%, +4) and urban geographer Colleen Hardwick (8%, +3). Simon Fraser University (SFU) professor Shauna Sylvester and activist Morgane Oger are seen as “good choices” for mayor by 7% of residents.

Half of Vancouverites (50%) would like to see a single mayoral candidate supported by Vision Vancouver, the Green Party of Vancouver, One City and the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) this year, while one-in-four (23%) disagree.

Agreement with the notion of a “unity candidate” from the centre-left is highest among women (54%), respondents aged 55 and over (52%) and residents of the East Side (54%).

Vancouverites who voted for Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson or COPE’s Meena Wong in 2014 are definitely more likely to endorse the idea of a “unity candidate” (64% and 62% respectively). Those who voted for Kirk LaPointe of the NPA four years ago are less interested (65% disagree).

The city is divided on whether it is time for the NPA to take control of City Council and the Mayor’s office, with 33% agreeing with the statement, 33% disagreeing with it, and 34% saying they are not sure. The highest level of agreement on this question is observed among men (44%), those in the highest income bracket (42%) and homeowners (41%).

Almost half of respondents (47%) say they are more enthusiastic about the upcoming municipal election than they have been in years past, while more than a third (37%) disagree. Robertson voters from 2014 are less likely to be enthusiastic about this year’s race (49%) than Wong (60%) and LaPointe (71%) voters.

When asked how they intend to vote in the 2018 election to Vancouver City Council, almost half of residents (47%) say they will “definitely” (9%) or “probably” (38%) select candidates individually, regardless of their affiliation. Conversely, almost two-in-five Vancouverites (38%) say they will “definitely” (11%) or “probably” (27%) select the most or all candidates from a specific party.

LaPointe voters from 2014 are decidedly more likely to say they’ll cast ballots on a partisan basis (68%), while Robertson and Wong voters are more likely to select candidates individually (57% and 54%, respectively).

Almost half of Vancouverites (49%) say they will “definitely” (15%) or “probably” (35%) prefer to have several parties represented in City Council when this year’s election is over. More than a third of residents (35%) say they will “definitely” (12%) or “probably” (23%) prefer a single party having a majority in Council.

Once again, LaPointe voters from 2014 are more likely to wish for a single party to have a majority (62%), while Robertson and Wong voters are more eager to have several parties in Council (56% and 64%, respectively).

The most important issues facing the City of Vancouver are housing (42%) and cost of living (36%), followed by poverty (5%) and government accountability (4%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from April 28 to April 30, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our full data set here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Kenny Louie.

Vancouverites See Carr, Swanson as Good Mayoral Options

April 12, 2018June 7, 2019By Mario Canseco

The Green Party outranks the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) and Vision Vancouver in positive perceptions.

Vancouver, BC [April 12, 2018] – In the early stages of the Vancouver mayoral race, a current councilor and a former candidate for council are regarded as worthy choices by voters, a new poll by Research Co. has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver voters, one-in- four respondents (26%) think current Green Party of Vancouver councilor Adriane Carr would be a “good choice” if she became Mayor of Vancouver, while 16 per cent feel the same way about social activist Jean Swanson—who ran unsuccessfully as an independent in last year’s by-election to council.

“The impressive issue with Carr is how well she is connecting across party lines,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “About a third of voters who supported Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson in 2014 say Carr would be a good choice for mayor, along with one-in-four of those who cast a ballot for Kirk LaPointe of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA).”

The poll, which allowed voters to rate 11 prospective candidates individually, outlines some major differences in name recognition. Almost half of respondents (47%) do not know who current NPA councilor Hector Bremner is, and larger proportions are unaware of other individuals seeking the NPA nod: current Park Board commissioner John Coupar (54%), urban geographer Colleen Hardwick (56%), financial analyst Glen Chernen (60%) and entrepreneur Chris Hasek-Watt (61%).

Across the city, six per cent of Vancouverites think Bremner is a good choice for Mayor—including 27 per cent of those who voted for LaPointe in the last mayoral election—while 12 per cent believe he would be a bad choice.

Former Conservative Party Member of Parliament Wai Young, who has launched a mayoral bid under the Coalition Vancouver banner, is regarded as a good choice by three per cent of Vancouverites, and as a bad choice by 13 per cent.

Simon Fraser University (SFU) professor Shauna Sylvester, who announced her mayoral campaign as an independent candidate last week, is seen as a good choice by eight per cent of Vancouverites—including 13% of those who voted for Robertson in the 2014 Mayoral contest.

Other prospective candidates who did not reach double digits as being “good choices” for mayor include urban planner Patrick Condon and Brette Mullins of Your Political Party.

“The absence of an incumbent and the changes to campaign financing have made this year’s Vancouver mayoral election particularly compelling,” continues Canseco. “The first battle for most of these prospective contenders will be for name recognition.”

When it comes to the political parties that currently operate in the city, almost half of Vancouverites (48%) say they have a positive opinion of the Green Party of Vancouver, while only 22% hold negative views.

Vision Vancouver, which currently holds a majority in council, is regarded negatively by 43% of Vancouverites and positively by 26%. One third of Vancouverites (32%) have negative views on the NPA, while 23% have positive ones.

Residents appear to be split on the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (27% positive, 27% negative), while smaller proportions of Vancouverites have a positive opinion of One City (14%) and Your Political Party (11%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from April 9 to April 10, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty. Find our full data set here.