Category: Elections

Stewart, Sim and Campbell Battle in Vancouver Race

Stewart, Sim and Campbell Battle in Vancouver Race

By Mario Canseco

Almost half of Vancouverites are undecided when asked which one of eight mayoral hopefuls would get their vote this year.

Vancouver, BC [June 14, 2018] – With just over four months to go before Vancouver elects a new mayor, many of the city’s residents are undecided, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, 47% of respondents are not sure who they would vote for if the mayoral election took place tomorrow.

Among decided voters, New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Parliament Kennedy Stewart is in first place with 26%, followed by Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) with 23%, and Ian Campbell of Vision Vancouver with 18%

Support is lower for current NPA councillor Hector Bremner (10%), independent Shauna Sylvester (9%), prospective Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) candidate Patrick Condon (8%), David Chen of ProVancouver (4%) and Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (3%).

Male decided voters are more likely to be supporting Sim at this stage (30% to 22% for Stewart), while Stewart is ahead among female decided voters (29%, with Campbell in second place at 18%).

Stewart is seen as a “good choice” to become mayor by 18% of residents (+8 since late April), followed by Campbell (17%), Sim (16%), Bremner (11%, =) and Sylvester (also 11%, +4). Condon (8%), Young (7%, +1) and Chen (5%) are in single digits.

When asked about specific political parties, a majority of Vancouverites (54%, +6 since early April) have a positive opinion of the Green Party of Vancouver.

The rating is lower for Vision Vancouver (31%, +5), the NPA (30%, -2), COPE (28%, +1), One City (17%, +3), Coalition Vancouver (also 17%) and ProVancouver (11%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from June 9 to June 11, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Photo Credit: Xicotencatl

Ontario: Who Won and Why?

Ontario: Who Won and Why?

By Mario Canseco

Originally published in National Observer on June 8, 2018.

The 2018 Ontario provincial election has delivered a majority government for the Progressive Conservative Party, gave the New Democrats official Opposition status and raised questions about the viability of the Liberal Party, which was reduced to single digits in seats.

A Research Co. exit poll, comprising the views of 503 Ontarians who cast a ballot in this electoral process, shows the different motivations of voters, as well as the effect of the events of the final week of campaigning, which included Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Saturday concession and the $16.5-million lawsuit filed by Rob Ford’s widow.

One of the traits that made this provincial election so compelling was the answer to the “time for change” question, especially when compared to other recent ballots. In Alberta and Manitoba, we saw many voters (82 per cent and 67 per cent respectively) embrace opposition leaders and abandon sitting governments. In Saskatchewan, the incumbent premier had little trouble holding on to a massive majority. In British Columbia, three-in-five voters wanted change in an election that resulted in a tie on the popular vote.

Ontario was decidedly different. More than three-in-five voters (77 per cent) said it was time for a change in government (five points lower than the 82 per cent observed in Alberta in 2015, and eight points higher than Manitoba in 2016). The sentiment for change was astonishingly high for both PC and NDP voters (94 per cent and 92 per cent respectively). However, one third of Liberal voters (33 per cent) also thought it was time for new leadership in the province, a sign of a base that perhaps grew unenthusiastic after the sitting premier acknowledged she would lose the election in the final weekend of the campaign.

Wynne’s plea for Liberal votes without a Liberal government seemed to split the public on the concept of “strategic voting”. Across the province, 45 per cent of Ontarians said they voted for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they disliked, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference.

The proportion of “strategic voters” was highest among NDP supporters (55 per cent), who ended up becoming the official opposition. Andrea Horwath held a higher approval rating than the other three leaders in the last two weeks of the campaign, much in the same way Jack Layton posted impressive numbers on this question before the 2011 federal election. Both ended up taking their parties from third place to second place.

When it comes to the lawsuit against PC leader Doug Ford, the effect was negligible. Perceptions about the party’s leader were positive enough to facilitate a victory. When asked about six possible motivators for their vote, one-in-four PC voters (25 per cent) said the most important factor was “the party’s leader.” Among both Liberal and NDP voters, this factor was ranked lower, at 22 per cent.

Liberal voters were more likely to say the most important factor was “the party’s candidate in the riding” (20 per cent, compared to a paltry 10 per cent and seven per cent among NDP and PC voters respectively). Incumbent ministers and long-time serving legislators sought to establish a powerful connection with some of the Liberal base, especially after Wynne appealed for a balance of power.

“The party’s ideas and policies” is, by far, the most important factor for supporters of the three main parties (44 per cent for Liberals, 39 per cent for NDP and 34 per cent for PC). “Desire for change” moved 19 per cent of PC voters and 13 per cent of NDP voters, but the New Democrats also benefitted—although not enough to score an upset win—from the 15 per cent of voters who said “disgust with other contending candidates” was their main motivating factor—a far higher proportion than the PCs (10 per cent) and the Liberals (five per cent).

Finally, we look at the situation that led to Doug Ford becoming leader of the Progressive Conservatives. Among all voters in the election, 37 per cent said they would have voted for the Progressive Conservatives if Patrick Brown was still their leader. This includes 59 per cent of those who ended up casting a ballot for the Ford-led party, but also a sizeable proportion of Ontarians who ended up voting for the NDP (32 per cent) and the Liberals (27 per cent). This would suggest that Brown, even after the allegations that forced him to quit as leader, would have had a similar result as Ford.

Polling methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on June 6 and June 7, 2018 among 503 Ontario adults who voted in the 2018 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Credit: DrRandomFactor

Progressive Conservatives Hold Edge in Ontario Ballot

Progressive Conservatives Hold Edge in Ontario Ballot

By Mario Canseco

Women and voters aged 18-to-34 prefer the New Democrats, while the PC Party leads with men and voters aged 35 and over.

Vancouver, BC [June 6, 2018] – The Progressive Conservative party heads to tomorrow’s provincial ballot in Ontario with a slight lead, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 39% of decided voters (+1 since a late May Research Co. survey) will cast a ballot for the PC candidate in their riding.

The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 37% (-2), followed by the governing Ontario Liberal Party with 20% (+2), and the Ontario Green Party with 4% (=).

In the 416 region, the Progressive Conservatives have a two-point edge over the NDP (39% to 37%). In the 905 region, the PCs are clearly ahead of the New Democrats (43% to 32%).

The NDP is the first choice for decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39%, compared to the Progressive Conservatives at 31%). The PCs are ahead of the New Democrats among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (40% to 36%) and voters aged 55 and over (41% to 37%).

There is a palpable gender gap in this election. Among men, the Progressive Conservatives are the first choice (42%, with the NDP a distant second at 31%). Among women, the New Democrats are ahead (36%, with the PCs at 29%).

NDP leader Andrea Horwath continues to hold the highest approval rating in the province (54%, +2), followed by Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford (36%, +3), Liberal Party leader Kathleen Wynne (29%, +2) and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (22%, +2).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from June 4 to June 6, 2018 among 661 Ontario adults, including 608 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Photo Credit: K.lee.

No Clear Frontrunner as Ontario Campaign Enters Final Week

No Clear Frontrunner as Ontario Campaign Enters Final Week

By Mario Canseco

Andrea Horwath has a higher approval rating and momentum score, but Doug Ford is seen as a superior economic manager.

Vancouver, BC [June 1, 2018] – Voters in Ontario are almost evenly divided between two options to change their government, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 39% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency in this month’s provincial election, while 38% will support the Ontario Progressive Conservatives.

The governing Ontario Liberal Party is a distant third with 18%, followed by the Ontario Green Party with 4%.

Only 30% of Ontarians who voted for the Liberals in the 2014 provincial election are sticking with the party this year. The Liberals are losing more than a third of last election’s voters (37%) to the New Democrats and one-in-five (20%) to the Progressive Conservatives.

NDP leader Andrea Horwath has the highest approval rating of all contending leaders (52%), followed by PC leader Doug Ford (33%), incumbent Premier and Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne (27%) and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (20%).

Horwath also has the highest momentum score of all leaders at +9 (27% of Ontarians say their opinion of the provincial NDP leader has improved since the start of the campaign, while 18% say it has worsened). On this indicator, Ford is at -35 and Wynne at -27.

When asked who would make the best premier for the province, 28% of Ontarians select Horwath, while 23% choose Ford. Wynne is once again third with 15%, followed by Schreiner with 3%.

Ontarians regard Ford as the best person to handle the economy (32%), provincial finances (30%), hydro (also 30%), jobs (29%), crime and public safety (27%), transportation projects (25%), and energy and pipelines (also 25%), while Horwath is ahead on dealing with housing, homelessness and poverty (36%), seniors care (35%), health care (33%), child care (30%) and education (28%).

Horwath and Ford are almost even on accountability (26% and 25% respectively), while Horwath and Schreiner are practically tied on the environment (22% and 21% respectively).

The most important issue facing Ontario is heath care (24%), followed by the economy and jobs (21%), housing, poverty and homelessness (18%) and government accountability (14%).

“This election is particularly close because of the performance the two main opposition parties,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “Doug Ford has retained a sizeable proportion of voters who backed his party four years ago, while more than half of Liberal voters from 2014 currently approve of Horwath’s performance as leader of the NDP.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from May 29 to May 31, 2018, among 701 Ontario adults, including 603 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Photo Credit: Andrijko Z.

Carr Extends Lead as Preferred Mayoral Contender in Vancouver

Carr Extends Lead as Preferred Mayoral Contender in Vancouver

By Mario Canseco

Half of Vancouverites would like to see a single mayoral candidate supported by Vision Vancouver, the Greens, One City and COPE this year.

Vancouver, BC [May 3, 2018] – Green Party of Vancouver councillor Adriane Carr remains the most popular prospective mayoral contender in the city, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, more than a third of Vancouverites (35%) think Carr would be a “good choice” for Mayor—a nine-point increase since a Research Co. poll conducted in early April.

Only four other prospective contenders reach double digits on this question: current Vision Vancouver councillor Raymond Louie (19%), independent Jean Swanson (17%, +1), current Non-Partisan Association (NPA) councillor Hector Bremner (11%, +5) and current New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Parliament Kennedy Stewart (10%).

One-in-five Vancouverites (22%) think Louie would be a “bad choice” for Mayor, while 16% (+4) feel the same way about Bremner.

Positive perceptions increased for two other prospective contenders: current Park Board commissioner John Coupar of the NPA (9%, +4) and urban geographer Colleen Hardwick (8%, +3). Simon Fraser University (SFU) professor Shauna Sylvester and activist Morgane Oger are seen as “good choices” for mayor by 7% of residents.

Half of Vancouverites (50%) would like to see a single mayoral candidate supported by Vision Vancouver, the Green Party of Vancouver, One City and the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) this year, while one-in-four (23%) disagree.

Agreement with the notion of a “unity candidate” from the centre-left is highest among women (54%), respondents aged 55 and over (52%) and residents of the East Side (54%).

Vancouverites who voted for Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson or COPE’s Meena Wong in 2014 are definitely more likely to endorse the idea of a “unity candidate” (64% and 62% respectively). Those who voted for Kirk LaPointe of the NPA four years ago are less interested (65% disagree).

The city is divided on whether it is time for the NPA to take control of City Council and the Mayor’s office, with 33% agreeing with the statement, 33% disagreeing with it, and 34% saying they are not sure. The highest level of agreement on this question is observed among men (44%), those in the highest income bracket (42%) and homeowners (41%).

Almost half of respondents (47%) say they are more enthusiastic about the upcoming municipal election than they have been in years past, while more than a third (37%) disagree. Robertson voters from 2014 are less likely to be enthusiastic about this year’s race (49%) than Wong (60%) and LaPointe (71%) voters.

When asked how they intend to vote in the 2018 election to Vancouver City Council, almost half of residents (47%) say they will “definitely” (9%) or “probably” (38%) select candidates individually, regardless of their affiliation. Conversely, almost two-in-five Vancouverites (38%) say they will “definitely” (11%) or “probably” (27%) select the most or all candidates from a specific party.

LaPointe voters from 2014 are decidedly more likely to say they’ll cast ballots on a partisan basis (68%), while Robertson and Wong voters are more likely to select candidates individually (57% and 54%, respectively).

Almost half of Vancouverites (49%) say they will “definitely” (15%) or “probably” (35%) prefer to have several parties represented in City Council when this year’s election is over. More than a third of residents (35%) say they will “definitely” (12%) or “probably” (23%) prefer a single party having a majority in Council.

Once again, LaPointe voters from 2014 are more likely to wish for a single party to have a majority (62%), while Robertson and Wong voters are more eager to have several parties in Council (56% and 64%, respectively).

The most important issues facing the City of Vancouver are housing (42%) and cost of living (36%), followed by poverty (5%) and government accountability (4%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from April 28 to April 30, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

 

Photo Credit: Kenny Louie.

Vancouverites See Carr, Swanson as Good Mayoral Options

Vancouverites See Carr, Swanson as Good Mayoral Options

By Mario Canseco

The Green Party outranks the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) and Vision Vancouver in positive perceptions.

Vancouver, BC [April 12, 2018] – In the early stages of the Vancouver mayoral race, a current councilor and a former candidate for council are regarded as worthy choices by voters, a new poll by Research Co. has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver voters, one-in- four respondents (26%) think current Green Party of Vancouver councilor Adriane Carr would be a “good choice” if she became Mayor of Vancouver, while 16 per cent feel the same way about social activist Jean Swanson—who ran unsuccessfully as an independent in last year’s by-election to council.

“The impressive issue with Carr is how well she is connecting across party lines,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “About a third of voters who supported Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson in 2014 say Carr would be a good choice for mayor, along with one-in-four of those who cast a ballot for Kirk LaPointe of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA).”

The poll, which allowed voters to rate 11 prospective candidates individually, outlines some major differences in name recognition. Almost half of respondents (47%) do not know who current NPA councilor Hector Bremner is, and larger proportions are unaware of other individuals seeking the NPA nod: current Park Board commissioner John Coupar (54%), urban geographer Colleen Hardwick (56%), financial analyst Glen Chernen (60%) and entrepreneur Chris Hasek-Watt (61%).

Across the city, six per cent of Vancouverites think Bremner is a good choice for Mayor—including 27 per cent of those who voted for LaPointe in the last mayoral election—while 12 per cent believe he would be a bad choice.

Former Conservative Party Member of Parliament Wai Young, who has launched a mayoral bid under the Coalition Vancouver banner, is regarded as a good choice by three per cent of Vancouverites, and as a bad choice by 13 per cent.

Simon Fraser University (SFU) professor Shauna Sylvester, who announced her mayoral campaign as an independent candidate last week, is seen as a good choice by eight per cent of Vancouverites—including 13% of those who voted for Robertson in the 2014 Mayoral contest.

Other prospective candidates who did not reach double digits as being “good choices” for mayor include urban planner Patrick Condon and Brette Mullins of Your Political Party.

“The absence of an incumbent and the changes to campaign financing have made this year’s Vancouver mayoral election particularly compelling,” continues Canseco. “The first battle for most of these prospective contenders will be for name recognition.”

When it comes to the political parties that currently operate in the city, almost half of Vancouverites (48%) say they have a positive opinion of the Green Party of Vancouver, while only 22% hold negative views.

Vision Vancouver, which currently holds a majority in council, is regarded negatively by 43% of Vancouverites and positively by 26%. One third of Vancouverites (32%) have negative views on the NPA, while 23% have positive ones.

Residents appear to be split on the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (27% positive, 27% negative), while smaller proportions of Vancouverites have a positive opinion of One City (14%) and Your Political Party (11%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from April 9 to April 10, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty. Find our full data set here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca