Carr Extends Lead as Preferred Mayoral Contender in Vancouver

Half of Vancouverites would like to see a single mayoral candidate supported by Vision Vancouver, the Greens, One City and COPE this year.

Vancouver, BC [May 3, 2018] – Green Party of Vancouver councillor Adriane Carr remains the most popular prospective mayoral contender in the city, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver residents, more than a third of Vancouverites (35%) think Carr would be a “good choice” for Mayor—a nine-point increase since a Research Co. poll conducted in early April.

Only four other prospective contenders reach double digits on this question: current Vision Vancouver councillor Raymond Louie (19%), independent Jean Swanson (17%, +1), current Non-Partisan Association (NPA) councillor Hector Bremner (11%, +5) and current New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Parliament Kennedy Stewart (10%).

One-in-five Vancouverites (22%) think Louie would be a “bad choice” for Mayor, while 16% (+4) feel the same way about Bremner.

Positive perceptions increased for two other prospective contenders: current Park Board commissioner John Coupar of the NPA (9%, +4) and urban geographer Colleen Hardwick (8%, +3). Simon Fraser University (SFU) professor Shauna Sylvester and activist Morgane Oger are seen as “good choices” for mayor by 7% of residents.

Half of Vancouverites (50%) would like to see a single mayoral candidate supported by Vision Vancouver, the Green Party of Vancouver, One City and the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) this year, while one-in-four (23%) disagree.

Agreement with the notion of a “unity candidate” from the centre-left is highest among women (54%), respondents aged 55 and over (52%) and residents of the East Side (54%).

Vancouverites who voted for Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson or COPE’s Meena Wong in 2014 are definitely more likely to endorse the idea of a “unity candidate” (64% and 62% respectively). Those who voted for Kirk LaPointe of the NPA four years ago are less interested (65% disagree).

The city is divided on whether it is time for the NPA to take control of City Council and the Mayor’s office, with 33% agreeing with the statement, 33% disagreeing with it, and 34% saying they are not sure. The highest level of agreement on this question is observed among men (44%), those in the highest income bracket (42%) and homeowners (41%).

Almost half of respondents (47%) say they are more enthusiastic about the upcoming municipal election than they have been in years past, while more than a third (37%) disagree. Robertson voters from 2014 are less likely to be enthusiastic about this year’s race (49%) than Wong (60%) and LaPointe (71%) voters.

When asked how they intend to vote in the 2018 election to Vancouver City Council, almost half of residents (47%) say they will “definitely” (9%) or “probably” (38%) select candidates individually, regardless of their affiliation. Conversely, almost two-in-five Vancouverites (38%) say they will “definitely” (11%) or “probably” (27%) select the most or all candidates from a specific party.

LaPointe voters from 2014 are decidedly more likely to say they’ll cast ballots on a partisan basis (68%), while Robertson and Wong voters are more likely to select candidates individually (57% and 54%, respectively).

Almost half of Vancouverites (49%) say they will “definitely” (15%) or “probably” (35%) prefer to have several parties represented in City Council when this year’s election is over. More than a third of residents (35%) say they will “definitely” (12%) or “probably” (23%) prefer a single party having a majority in Council.

Once again, LaPointe voters from 2014 are more likely to wish for a single party to have a majority (62%), while Robertson and Wong voters are more eager to have several parties in Council (56% and 64%, respectively).

The most important issues facing the City of Vancouver are housing (42%) and cost of living (36%), followed by poverty (5%) and government accountability (4%).

Results are based on an online study conducted from April 28 to April 30, 2018, among 400 adults in the City of Vancouver. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.


Photo Credit: Kenny Louie.