CAQ and Liberals Engaged in Tight Race in Quebec

Half of Quebecers believe health care is the most important issue facing the province.

Vancouver, BC [September 24, 2018] – The opposition Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) holds a slight edge in the lead up to Quebec’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 32% of decided voters in Quebec say they will cast a ballot for the CAQ candidate in their riding, while 30% would support the Liberal Party of Quebec on October 1.

The Parti Québécois is a distant third with 19%, followed by Québec solidaire with 16%. Three per cent of decided voters would support other parties.

The CAQ holds a three-point edge over the Liberals among male voters (32% to 29%), while the Liberals are slightly ahead among female voters (33% to 31%).

The approval rating for Premier and Quebec Liberal Party leader Philippe Couillard stands at 35%. The number is higher for both Coalition Avenir Québec leader François Legault (40%) and Parti Québécois and Official Opposition leader Jean-François Lisée (37%).

Lisée has the best momentum score f the three main party leaders (+3, with 20% of Quebecers saying their opinion of him has improved since the start of the campaign, while 17% say it has worsened). Couillard checks in at -20 and Legault at -17.

Health care is regarded as the most important issue facing the province (50%), followed by the economy and jobs (9%), the environment (also 9%), education (8%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (7%).

When asked who would make the best premier of Quebec, Couillard is first with 26% followed by Legault with 24% and Lisée with 16%.

“The race is very close heading into the final week of the Quebec campaign,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The CAQ is ahead by a small margin, but Legault has not overtaken incumbent premier Couillard as the best person to head the government.”

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 19 to September 22, 2018, among 601 Quebec adults, including 522 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Quebec. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.



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