Progressive Conservatives Hold Edge in Ontario Ballot

Women and voters aged 18-to-34 prefer the New Democrats, while the PC Party leads with men and voters aged 35 and over.

Vancouver, BC [June 6, 2018] – The Progressive Conservative party heads to tomorrow’s provincial ballot in Ontario with a slight lead, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 39% of decided voters (+1 since a late May Research Co. survey) will cast a ballot for the PC candidate in their riding.

The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 37% (-2), followed by the governing Ontario Liberal Party with 20% (+2), and the Ontario Green Party with 4% (=).

In the 416 region, the Progressive Conservatives have a two-point edge over the NDP (39% to 37%). In the 905 region, the PCs are clearly ahead of the New Democrats (43% to 32%).

The NDP is the first choice for decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39%, compared to the Progressive Conservatives at 31%). The PCs are ahead of the New Democrats among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (40% to 36%) and voters aged 55 and over (41% to 37%).

There is a palpable gender gap in this election. Among men, the Progressive Conservatives are the first choice (42%, with the NDP a distant second at 31%). Among women, the New Democrats are ahead (36%, with the PCs at 29%).

NDP leader Andrea Horwath continues to hold the highest approval rating in the province (54%, +2), followed by Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford (36%, +3), Liberal Party leader Kathleen Wynne (29%, +2) and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (22%, +2).

Results are based on an online study conducted from June 4 to June 6, 2018 among 661 Ontario adults, including 608 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.


Photo Credit: K.lee.