CAQ Edges Ahead as Quebec Voters Set to Cast Ballots

François Legault holds the upper hand when Quebecers are asked who would make the best premier.

Vancouver, BC [September 30, 2018] – On the eve of Quebec’s provincial election, the opposition Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) remains ahead of all other contending parties, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 33% of decided voters in Quebec (+1 since a Research Co. survey concluded on September 22) will support the CAQ candidate in their constituency.

The governing Liberal Party of Quebec is second with 30% (=), followed by the Parti Québécois with 18% (-1) and Québec solidaire with 16% (=).

Québec solidaire is the most popular party among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (33%). More than a third of decided voters aged 35-to-54 (36%) are favouring the CAQ, while those aged 55 and over prefer the Liberals (36%).

“There is a clear generational divide among voters in Quebec,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The election appears similar to the electoral processes of 2008 and 2012, where no party was able to reach the 40 per cent threshold.”

Almost two-in-five of decided voters who reside in the Montreal Metropolitan Community (39%) would support the Liberals tomorrow, while the CAQ is ahead in both the Quebec Metropolitan Community (43%) and the rest of the province (38%).

The incumbent Liberals are only holding on to 56% of the decided voters that supported them in the last provincial election, with 29% now choosing the CAQ. The Parti Québécois keeps 59% of its 2014 voters, with a third going to either the CAQ (20%) or Québec solidaire (12%).

When asked who would make the best premier of Quebec, 30% of respondents select Coalition Avenir Québec leader François Legault.

Premier and Quebec Liberal Party leader Philippe Couillard is second with 23%, followed by Parti Québécois and Official Opposition leader Jean-François Lisée with 12%, and Manon Massé of Québec solidaire with 11%.

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 28 to September 30, 2018, among 625 Quebec adults, including 550 decided voters in the 2018 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Quebec. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.


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