Liberal-NDP Merger Would Not Hurt Conservatives in Canada

Half of Canadians disagree with the two centre-left parties joining forces before the next election to the House of Commons.

Vancouver, BC [October 13, 2023] – A merged political organization encompassing the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) would still trail the Conservative Party in a Canadian federal campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample asked Canadians to ponder their options in a federal election if the Liberals and the New Democrats merged into a single party.

If the new party contested the election under current Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, the Conservatives would be in first place among decided voters with 42%, followed by the new party (36%), the Bloc Québécois (8%), the Green Party (also 8%) and the People’s Party (2%).

In this scenario, the merged Liberal-NDP party trails in Ontario (38% to 43%) and British Columbia (35% to 49%). In Quebec, the new party has a six-point lead over the Bloc (39% to 33%, with the Conservatives at 21%).

If the new party were headed by current NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, the Conservatives would still be ahead nationally (43%), followed by the merged Liberal-NDP party (36%), the Bloc (9%), the Greens (7%) and the People’s Party (2%).

Once again, the Conservatives have an advantage over the new party in Ontario (44% to 38%) and British Columbia (50% to 35%), but are third in Quebec (21%, with the new party at 36% and the Bloc at 35%).

“Canadians aged 35-to-54 are particularly unenthused about the prospect of a merged Liberal-NDP party contesting the next federal election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Among these voters, support for the new entity stands at 35% with Trudeau and at 31% with Singh.”

The survey also gauged three ideas that could materialize before the next federal election. Half of Canadians (50%) oppose a full merger between the Liberals and the NDP, while 36% are in favour.

Support for a true merger between the two parties stands at 56% among Liberal voters in the last federal election and at 36% among those who cast ballots for NDP candidates in 2021.

The notion of the Liberals and the NDP only running candidates from one of the two parties in every riding in Canada is backed by 35% of Canadians and rejected by 49%. Conservative voters in 2021 are particularly opposed to this idea (70%).

Just under half of Canadians (48%) would support a formal agreement between the Liberals and the New Democrats to share power in a coalition government, while 43% disagree and 10% are undecided.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 6 to October 8, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.