Elections – Page 2 – Research Co.

Liberals Remain Ahead of Conservatives in Canadian Campaign

April 8, 2025April 20, 2025By Mario Canseco

Mark Carney leads Pierre Poilievre when likely voters are asked who would be best to manage seven important issues.

Vancouver, BC [April 8, 2025] – The governing Liberal Party holds an eight-point advantage over the opposition Conservative Party as the federal election campaign continues in Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 44% of decided voters would support the Liberals (+3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in late March), while 36% (-1) would back the Conservatives.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 8% (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 5% (-2), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario (48% to 39%), Quebec (47% to 22%, with the Bloc at 19%) and British Columbia (44% to 38%). The Conservatives are first in Alberta (51%, with the Liberals at 28%).

“The retention rate continues to be stellar for both Conservatives and Liberals, who are holding on to at least four-in-five of their 2021 voters (82% and 80% respectively),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats are keeping fewer than half of their voters from the last federal election (45%).”

Just over three-in-ten likely voters (31%, +1) think Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue facing the country. Significantly fewer choose the economy and jobs (19%, -1), housing, homelessness and poverty (18%, +1), health care (11%, +2) and immigration (5%, -2).

Overall voter consideration remains higher for the Liberals (55%, +2) than for the Conservatives (48%, +2) and the New Democrats (41%, +6)

Fewer than one-in-four likely voters say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting their ballot for the Greens (24%, -1), the Animal Protection Party (21%, -2), the People’s Party (20%, -1), the Canadian Future Party (19%, -5), the Libertarian Party (18%, +1), the United Party (15%, +1), the Marijuana Party (also 15%), the Christian Heritage Party (14%, -1), the Centrist Party (13%, =), the Marxist-Leninist Party (12%, +2) the Rhinocéros Party (11%, +1) or the Communist Party (10%, =) if they ran a candidate in their riding.

Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party has the lowest approval rating among the six main party leaders (22%, -3). The numbers are higher for Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (25%, -5), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (also 25%, =), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (40%, +2), Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (44%, -2) and Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney (58%, +1).

Carney posts a positive momentum score this week (+14), with 36% of likely voters saying their opinion of him has improved since the start of the campaign and 22% saying it has worsened. The scores are in negative territory for Poilievre (-13), Pedneault (-14), Blanchet (-16), Singh (-18) and Bernier (also -18).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, more than two-in-five likely voters (43%, +4) choose Carney, while fewer than three-in-ten (29%, -4) select Poilievre. Singh is third with 9% (=), followed by Blanchet (4%, +1), Bernier (2%, =) and Pedneault (1%, -1).

More than half of likely voters (54%) say there is nothing Singh can say or do to make them vote for the NDP. The proportions are lower on this question for Poilievre and the Conservatives (51%) and Carney and the Liberals (43%).

Three-in-five likely voters (60%, +1) are comfortable with Carney being in charge of Canada’s economy, while 46% (=) would be comfortable if Poilievre were to take over.

Likely voters were asked to choose which one of the two main party leaders would be the best person to manage 10 different issues. Perceptions are particularly close on three issues: crime and public safety (Poilievre 36%, Carney 34%), energy and pipelines (Carney 38%, Poilievre 37%) and immigration (Carney 37%, Poilievre 36%).

The Liberal leader holds the upper hand over his Conservative counterpart on seven issues: housing, homelessness and poverty (41% to 31%), the environment (42% to 26%), health care (43% to 28%), accountability and leadership (44% to 32%), the economy and jobs (46% to 32%), foreign affairs (46% to 30%) and Canada-U.S. Relations (49% to 29%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on April 5 and April 6, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,007 likely voters in Canada, including 956 decided voters in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Carney Boosts Liberals as Canadian Federal Campaign Begins

March 25, 2025March 24, 2025By Mario Canseco

Canada-U.S. Relations becomes the most important issue for voters, outpacing jobs, housing, health care and immigration.

Vancouver, BC [March 25, 2025] – Support for the governing Liberal Party has significantly increased since Mark Carney was selected as its leader, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 41% of decided voters in Canada would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their constituency if the federal election took place today, up 20 points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in early January, prior to the announcement of Justin Trudeau’s departure as head of government.

The Conservative Party is in second place with 37% (-10), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 9% (-6), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (-3), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

Three regions of the country post statistical ties in the early stages of the federal campaign: Atlantic Canada (Liberals 42%, Conservatives 40%), Ontario (Liberals 43%, Conservatives 40%) and British Columbia (Liberals 41%, Conservatives 39%).

The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (56%), while the Liberals are leading in Quebec (43%, with the Conservatives and the Bloc tied at 22%).

“Practically one-in-four voters who supported the New Democrats in 2021 (24%) are voting for the Liberals in 2025,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is significantly higher for the Conservatives (85%) and the Liberals (83%).”

More than half of Canadians (53%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the Liberals if they ran a candidate in their constituency. Voting consideration is currently lower for the Conservatives (46%), the New Democrats (35%) and the Greens (25%).

Just over one-in-five Canadians (21%) would consider voting for the People’s Party, which has never elected a candidate to the House of Commons. Consideration is higher for the Canadian Future Party (24%) and the Animal Protection Party (23%) and lower for seven other political organizations: the Libertarian Party (17%), the Christian Heritage Party (15%), the United Party (14%), the Centrist Party (13%), the Rhinocéros Party (10%), the Marxist-Leninist Party (also 10%) and the Communist Party (also 10%).

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%) say Canada-U.S. Relations is the most important issue facing the country right now, followed by the economy and jobs (20%, -2), housing, homelessness and poverty (17%, -12), health care (9%, -7) and immigration (7%, -6).

There is a significant age gap on the top issue, with Canada-U.S. Relations peaking at 44% among Canadians aged 55 and over, but dropping to 30% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 17% among those aged 18-to-34. The country’s youngest adults are more likely to be concerned about housing, homelessness and poverty (24%) or the economy and jobs (23%).

More than half of Canadians (57%) approve of the way Mark Carney has handled his duties as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party. The rating is lower for Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (46%, -6), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (38%, -1), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (30%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, -2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (also 25%, +2).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, almost two-in-five Canadians (39%) select Carney, while one third (33%, -6) choose Poilievre. The remaining party leaders are in single digits on this question, where the level of undecided respondents fell from 17% in January to 12% this month.

Carney also holds the upper hand over Poilievre on a question related to financial management. Almost three-in-five Canadians (59%) say they are comfortable with the Liberal leader being in charge of Canada’s economy, a 25-point improvement from Trudeau’s last result in early January.

Fewer than half of Canadians (46%, -9) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being in charge of Canada’s economy—a proportion that rises to 62% in Alberta.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on March 23 and March 24, 2025, among 1,003 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

British Columbia’s Political Scene Remains Closely Contested

March 11, 2025March 11, 2025By Mario Canseco

The standing of the two major parties has not changed much since the October 2024 provincial election.

Vancouver, BC [March 11, 2025] – British Columbia’s main political parties hold similar levels of public support as the legislative session gets underway, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters would back the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) if an election were held today, while 42% would support the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 11%, while 3% of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates.

“More than half of decided voters aged 55 and over (54%) would back the BC NDP in a new provincial election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost half of decided voters aged 35-to-49 (49%) are with the BC Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the New Democrats are clearly ahead of the Conservatives in Vancouver Island (50% to 31%). The race is closer in Southern BC (BC NDP 49%, BC Conservatives 47%) and in Metro Vancouver (both parties tied with 44%). The BC Conservatives hold leads in the Fraser Valley (47% to 34%) and in Northern BC (44% to 39%).

The BC NDP is ahead on a separate question, with 53% of British Columbians saying they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the party in the next provincial election. Consideration is lower for the BC Conservatives (45%) and the BC Greens (39%).

More than half of British Columbians (55%) approve of the performance of Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby, up two points from the final Research Co. election survey conducted in October 2024. Satisfaction is lower with Official Opposition and Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad (40%, -2) and interim BC Green Party leader Jeremy Valeriote (34%).

A merger of the BC Green Party and the BC NDP is regarded as a “good idea” by 46% of British Columbians and a “bad idea” by 33%.

Just over a third of British Columbians (34%) think BC United merging with the Conservative Party of BC is a “good idea”, while two-in-five (40%) deem it a “bad idea”.

More than a third of British Columbians (36%, -4) say housing, poverty and homelessness is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (21%, -2), the economy and jobs (20%, +6), crime and public safety (6%, =), the environment (3%, -1) and accountability (3%, =).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from March 3 to March 5, 2025, among 802 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

How Ontario Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

March 3, 2025March 3, 2025By Mario Canseco

The governing party connected equally well on leadership and policies. The two opposition parties were unable to break through on desire for change.

The foibles of Canada’s first-past-the-post system can explain why supporters of the Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario are going through mixed feelings after last week’s provincial election. Premier Doug Ford will form a majority government once again, with his party going from 41% of the vote and 83 seats in 2022, to 43% of the vote and 80 seats in 2025.

The early election, designed to give Ford a mandate than would last longer than the second term of United States President Donald Trump, once again showed how widely vote efficiency can vary. The Ontario New Democratic Paty (NDP) will form the Official Opposition, with 27 seats secured with 19% of the province-wide vote. The Ontario Liberal Party received 30% of all cast ballots but won just 14 seats.

In our “Exit Poll”, more than three-in-five Ontarians (63%) claim to have voted strategically, defined as voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. The numbers do not sway much among supporters of specific political parties: 68% for Liberals, 63% for New Democrats and 61% for Progressive Conservatives. We are almost as likely to find a PC supporter who voted against the Liberals or New Democrats, than to find a hard-core Liberal who went for the NDP in order to ensure that a seat did not turn blue.

The main motivators for Progressive Conservative supporters were the party’s leader (33%) and the party’s ideas and policies (also 33%). The score for the leaders of the Liberals and New Democrats is slightly lower (31% and 26% respectively).

Desire for change—which usually jumps when the opposition connects well—sits at a low 14% for both opposition parties. The party’s candidate in the riding rises to 17% for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals (11%) and Progressive Conservatives (9%).

Ontarians are still divided on whether the Liberals and New Democrats should merge into a single political party, with 44% agreeing with the concept and 42% disagreeing with it. Majorities of Ontarians who cast a ballot for Liberal candidates (62%) and New Democratic candidates (52%) like the idea, but only 32% of those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives concur.

In our 2022 Exit Poll, only 39% of Ontarians welcomed a possible Liberal-NDP merger. As another election cycle goes by without a solid alternative to the Progressive Conservatives, appetite for a deal featuring centre-left parties has grown.

In addition, more Ontarians are getting behind electoral reform. More than three-in-five voters (62%) think Ontario should implement a system of proportional representation for provincial elections, up four points since 2022. What is striking about the findings this year is that voters aged 35-to-54 are more likely to desire a different system (67%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (61%) and aged 55 and over (58%). In any case, we have majorities across all age groups who openly wonder whether a party should have so much control of the legislature with fewer than 50 per cent of all cast ballots.

Ford’s latest transformation into “Captain Canada” has not gone unnoticed. Almost half of provincial voters in Ontario (47%) say they would like to see him become leader of the Conservative Party of Canada at some point. The gender gap on this question is negligible (Men 49%, Women 45%) and the idea is particularly appealing to Ontario voters aged 18-to-34 (51%), as well as residents of two seat-rich regions: the 905 (50%) and the 416 (49%) area codes.

We asked these same voters if they would like to see Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister later this year. The province-wide proportion is lower (43%), but while almost half of men are ready to see Poilievre heading the federal government (49%), only 39% of women concur.

In a troubling finding for Conservative supporters, just 36% of Ontario’s oldest adults—traditionally the most reliable voters—would like to see Poilievre supplant Justin Trudeau. This is a far cry from the state of affairs at the start of the year, when 51% of decided voters in Ontario were with the Conservatives before Trudeau announced his intention to step down. Poilievre remains popular in the 905 (47%) and the 416 (45%) regions, but his numbers are not as good as what Ford commands as a “future” federal Conservative leader.

All polls are snapshots, and this one is unique for several reasons. Poilievre is not being compared to any Liberal rival. The survey focuses only on Ontarians who cast a ballot in the latest provincial election, and we can expect turnout to be higher federally than what has been observed in the two previous Ontario provincial ballots. Still, it is clear that Ford’s decision to call an election because of what transpired in the United States has paid off. His popularity has grown, and some Ontarians are starting to wonder if he is ready for a larger job than the one he has just been re-elected to.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 27 to March 1, 2025, among 501 Ontario adults who voted in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Progressive Conservatives Headed for Fresh Term in Ontario

February 26, 2025February 26, 2025By Mario Canseco

Vancouver, BC [February 26, 2025] – Public support for the governing Progressive Conservatives has not dwindled in the final stages of Ontario’s provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 46% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-February) say they will support the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party tomorrow or have already done so.

The Ontario Liberal Party is in second place with 30% (-1), followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17% (+2) and the Ontario Green Party with 5% (+1). An additional 2% of decided voters (-2) would support other parties or independent candidates.

“More than half of decided voters aged 55 and over in Ontario (55%) are backing the Progressive Conservatives,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support for the governing party is lower among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (49%) and aged 18-to-34 (37%).”

The approval rating for Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford is unchanged at 56%. Just under half of Ontarians (47%, +4) are satisfied with the way Official Opposition and Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles has managed her duties. The numbers are lower for Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie (43%, -5) and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%, =).

The four main party leaders reach the final day of campaigning with negative momentum scores: -4 for Crombie, -3 for Ford and -1 for both Stiles and Schreiner.

Ford maintains a large lead on the “Best Premier” question, with 44% (-2). Crombie is second with 26% (+4), followed by Stiles (14%, +3) and Schreiner (5%, =).

Three-in-ten Ontarians (30%, +2) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (28%, =), health care (18%, -1), government accountability (5%, =) and crime and public safety (4%, -1).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on February 25 and February 26, 2025, among 701 Ontario adults, including 666 decided voters in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Some Canadians Take Wait-and-See Approach on Federal Politics

February 19, 2025February 18, 2025By Mario Canseco

Canadians are divided when asked to compare Pierre Poilievre to three former recent leaders of centre-right parties.

Vancouver, BC [February 19, 2025] – About one-in-four Canadians are no longer entirely convinced about voting for the Conservative Party in the next federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 23% of Canadians say they were leaning towards voting for the Conservatives, but the resignation of Justin Trudeau changed things and they need to see what the next Liberal Party leader does before deciding who to vote for.

Similar proportions of Canadians are certain that they will support Conservative candidates (30%) or vote against them (32%) in the next federal ballot, while 16% are completely undecided.

“In the last voting survey conducted in early January before Trudeau announced he was stepping down, more than half of decided voters in British Columbia and Ontario were backing the Conservatives,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now, about one-in-four voters in each of these provinces are reassessing their choices.”

Practically half of Canadians (49%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for the Conservatives in the next federal election. The rating is lower for the Liberals (43%), the New Democratic Party (NDP) (also 43%), the Green Party (32%) and the People’s Party (23%).

Canadians who are considering voting for the Conservatives were asked about their primary motivation. More than a third (36%) say the most important factor is the party’s leader, while a slightly smaller proportion (33%) mention the party’s ideas and policies.

Fewer Conservative supporters are mainly moved by a desire for change (11%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%), a desire for stability (6%) or disgust with other contending candidates (4%).

Canadians are evenly divided when comparing current Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to three of his predecessors. Similar proportions of Canadians think Poilievre is either better or worse than Stockwell Day (23% and 22% respectively), Andrew Scheer (24% and 23% respectively) and Erin O’Toole (24% and 23% respectively). About a third (32%) believe Poilievre is worse than Stephen Harper, while 20% believe he is better.

Among Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in the 2021 federal election, Poilievre is regarded as superior to O’Toole (50%), Scheer (48%) and Day (45%), but only 31% think he is better than Harper.

More than three-in-ten Canadians believe immigration (34%), the economy and jobs (33%), energy and pipelines (also 33%), crime and public safety (31%) and trade and Canada’s relationship with the United States (also 31%) would be better if Poilievre was serving as Canada’s prime minister.

Poilievre’s rating is lower on five other issues: foreign affairs (30%), accountability and leadership (also 30%), housing, homelessness and poverty (27%), health care (24%) and the environment (23%).

Canadians were also asked to select six words to describe Poilievre. Two-in-five (40%) say the Conservative leader is arrogant, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2023. At least one-in-four Canadians also used the words intelligent (33%, -1), strong (32%, +6), efficient (26%, +6), dishonest (25%, -3) and uncaring (also 25%, +2).

In the Liberal Party’s leadership race, more than two-in-five Canadians (43%) have a favourable opinion of Mark Carney—a proportion that rises to 53% among those aged 55 and over, 50% in British Columbia and 44% in Quebec.

The favourability rating is lower for four other contenders: Chrystia Freeland (38%), Karina Gould (21%), Ruby Dhalla (17%) and Frank Baylis (16%).

The new leader of the Liberal Party is expected to become Prime Minister in March. When asked which one of the five contenders is better suited to handle 10 specific issues, Carney is ahead of his rivals on all of them, with larger leads on the economy and jobs (31%), accountability and leadership (29%) and trade and Canada’s relationship with the United States (also 29%).

Sizeable proportions of Canadians—ranging from 38% to 47%—cannot select any of the five Liberal leadership candidates for the tasks at hand.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from February 3 to February 5, 2025, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Progressive Conservatives Way Ahead of Rivals in Ontario

February 14, 2025February 26, 2025By Mario Canseco

Almost half of Ontarians think Doug Ford would be the “Best Premier” for Canada’s most populous province.

Vancouver, BC [February 14, 2025] – The governing Progressive Conservative Party holds a sizeable advantage over all other contenders in Ontario’s provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 45% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their constituency in this month’s provincial ballot.

The Ontario Liberal Party is second with 31%, followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% and the Ontario Green Party with 4%. An additional 4% of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates.

The Progressive Conservatives are ahead across all areas of the province, with particularly high showings in the 905 Region (52%), Northern Ontario (51%) and the 416 Region (46%).

“At this point in the 2022 provincial campaign, the governing Progressive Conservatives were garnering the support of 34% of decided voters in Ontario,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Their lead in 2025 is markedly higher.”

More than half of Ontarians (56%) approve of the performance of Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford. The rating is lower for Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie (48%), Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Marit Stiles (43%) and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%).

More than one-in-four Ontarians (27%) say their opinion of Ford has improved since the start of the campaign. The numbers on this indicator are lower for Crombie (21%), Stiles (18%) and Schreiner (12%).

Almost half of Ontarians (46%) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province, followed by Crombie (22%), Stiles (11%) and Schreiner (5%).

Two issues are seen as the most important facing the province right now: the economy and jobs (28%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (also 28%). Fewer Ontarians are primarily concerned about health care (19%), government accountability (5%) or crime and public safety (also 5%).

Ford is seen as better suited to manage the economy and jobs (43%), energy and pipelines (also 43%), crime and public safety (42%), accountability (37%), housing, poverty and homelessness (34%), health care (32%), the environment (30%) and education (also 30%).

Crombie’s highest numbers are on health care (26%) and education (25%), while Stiles does best on housing, poverty and homelessness (18%).

More than two-in-five Ontarians (44%) believe the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP should merge into a single political party, while just over a third (36%) disagree with this idea.

Half of residents of the 416 Region (50%) are in favour of a Liberal-NDP merger. The proportions are lower in the 905 Region (48%), Eastern Ontario (45%), Southwestern Ontario (38%) and Northern Ontario (35%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from February 11 to February 13, 2025, among 702 Ontario adults, including 639 decided voters in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Rise in Canada on Eve of Trudeau’s Resignation

January 7, 2025January 22, 2025By Mario Canseco

Majorities of voters across all regions—with the exception of Quebec—would support the opposition party in an election.

Vancouver, BC [January 7, 2025] – The federal Conservative Party amassed a sizeable lead over the governing Liberal Party in Canada, on the weekend prior to Justin Trudeau’s announced resignation as prime minister, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 47% of decided voters in Canada would support the Conservative candidate in their riding if an election took place tomorrow, up seven points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in August 2024.

The governing Liberal Party is a distant second with 21% (-4), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% (-2), the Bloc Québécois with 10% (+1), the Green Party with 3% (-3) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

The Conservatives are the most popular party for decided voters in Atlantic Canada (58%, +7), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (57%, +17) Alberta (56%, +1), British Columbia (54%, +4), and Ontario (51%, +12). In Quebec, the Bloc is first (37%, +4), followed by the Conservatives (29%, +8) and the Liberals (21%, -7).

Almost three-in-ten Canadians (29%, -3) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important concern facing the country, followed by the economy and jobs (22%, -3), health care (16%, +1), immigration (13%, +3) and the environment (6%, =).

As was the case in August 2024, Official Opposition and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has the highest approval rating among all federal leaders (52%, =). The numbers are lower for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (39%, -3), Prime Minister and Liberal leader Trudeau (34%, =), Green leader Elizabeth May (32%, -3), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (27%, +2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (23%, -3).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Poilievre is first with 39% (+2), followed by Trudeau (21%, -1) and Singh (12%, -2).

A majority of Canadians (55%, +1) say they would be comfortable with Poilievre being in charge of Canada’s economy. Just over a third (34%, =) are currently comfortable with Trudeau in this position.

The survey re-asked some questions posed to Canadians in October 2023 about possible cooperation between the Liberals and the New Democrats.

Just over two-in-five Canadians (41%, -7) would welcome a formal agreement where the Liberal Party and the NDP share power in a coalition government. Fewer are in favour of two other ideas: an agreement to only run candidates from one of the two parties in every riding in Canada in the next federal election (34%, -1) or a full merger between the two parties (33%, -3).

When Canadians ponder a vote with a merged Liberal-NDP party, the Conservatives remain ahead in scenarios with Trudeau (48% to 31%) or Singh (46% to 34%) as leaders of the new political organization.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from January 3 to January 5, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

One-in-Four Canadians Flirt with Province Joining the USA

December 20, 2024January 8, 2025By Mario Canseco

More than three-in-ten Canadians think their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa.

Vancouver, BC [December 20, 2024] – The proportion of Canadians who believe their province would benefit from becoming an American state has increased over the past year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, just over one-in-four Canadians (26%) think their province would be better off joining the U.S. and becoming an American state, up eight points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in October 2023.

The notion of a province benefitting from becoming the 51st State resonates most in Alberta (30%), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (29%), Ontario (also 29%), Quebec (24%), Atlantic Canada (24%) and British Columbia (18%).

“The appeal of a province joining the United States varies greatly by age,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “While only 10% of Canadians aged 55 and over perceive benefits, the proportion rises to 27% among those aged 35-to-54 and to 40% among those aged 18-to-34.”

Just over three-in-ten Canadians (31%, +7) believe their province would be better off as its own country. More than a third of residents of Alberta (38%) and Quebec (35%) share this view.

The survey outlines a significant level of animosity towards the federal and provincial heads of government across the country. More than three-in-five Canadians (61%, +9) believe their province would be better off with a different Prime Minister in Ottawa.

Two thirds of Albertans (67%) and Ontarians (66%) think their province would benefit from having someone other than Justin Trudeau in charge of the federal government. Majorities of residents of Atlantic Canada (64%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%), British Columbia (57%) and Quebec (53%) concur.

Canadians aged 35-to-54 are more likely to think that their province would benefit from a change in Ottawa (65%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (62%) and those aged 55 and over (56%).

Most Canadians (57%) think their province would be better off with a different premier in charge. This sentiment is more prevalent in Ontario (65%), Alberta (64%) and Quebec (57%). Fewer residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51%), Atlantic Canada (48%) and British Columbia (47%) feel the same way.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from December 13 to December 15, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Almost Half in Canada and USA See Trump Followers as “Cult”

December 4, 2024December 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Residents of both countries are less critical when assessing people who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Vancouver, BC [December 4, 2024] – A significant proportion of Canadians and Americans hold a particularly negative view of followers of Donald Trump and the Republican Party, a new two-country Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative national samples, respondents in Canada and the United States were asked if it is far or unfair to refer to followers of specific people, parties and ideas as a cult.

A cult is often defined as a group which is typically led by a charismatic leader, who tightly controls its members, requiring unwavering devotion to a set of beliefs and practices which are considered outside the norms of society.

Almost half of Canadians (47%) and Americans (46%) think it is fair to refer to followers of the Republican Party and Donald Trump as a cult.

Half of Canadians aged 55 and over (50%) can describe followers of Trump and the Republicans as a cult. The numbers are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 18-to-34 (48%).

In the United States, respondents aged 55 and over are less likely to believe it is warranted for followers of Trump and the Republicans to be thought of as a cult (42%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (48%) and aged 35-to-54 (49%).

“Americans who describe themselves as Democrats (76%) and Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Paty (NDP) in 2021 (63% and 54% respectively) think it is fair to refer to followers of Trump and the Republicans as a cult,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among Republicans in the United States (41%) and Conservatives in Canada (40%).”

At least two-in-five Canadians (40%) and Americans (42%) think it is warranted to refer to people who participated in the protests and blockades against restrictions and mandates related to the COVID-19 pandemic as a cult. Slightly smaller proportions of Canadians and Americans (36% and 39% respectively) feel the same way about people who refuse to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

While 37% of Americans believe it is fair to refer to followers of the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris in the United States as a cult, the proportion drops to 30% in Canada. The results are similar for followers of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the United States (38% in the United States and 29% in Canada).

In Canada, at least a third of respondents believe it is warranted to refer to followers of the Conservative Party and Pierre Poilievre (35%) and followers of the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau (33%) as cults, The proportions are lower for followers of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Jagmeet Singh (31%), followers of the People’s Party and Maxime Bernier (also 31%) and followers of the Green Party and Elizabeth May in Canada (26%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from November 8 to November 10, 2024, among 1,000 adults in Canada and 1,001 adults in the United States. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each country. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for each country.

Find our data tables for Canada here, data tables for the United States here and download the press release here.

Americans Staunchly Divided in Close Presidential Race

November 4, 2024November 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Similar proportions of likely voters say they will be “upset” if either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win the contest.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2024] – The race for the White House is in a statistical tie at the national level, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 50% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early October) would support Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris or have already voted for her, while 48% (+1) would cast a ballot for Donald Trump of the Republican Party.

Trump leads Harris among male decided voters (54% to 44%), while Harris is ahead of Trump among female decided voters (56% to 42%).

The Democratic nominee remains ahead in the Northeast (57% to 41%) and the West (56% to 41%). The Republican contender holds the upper hand in the South (53% to 46%) and the Midwest (51% to 47%).

Harris remains the preferred candidate for decided voters who are African American (75%) or Hispanic / Latino (60%), while Trump is the first choice for white decided voters (57%).

“Whoever emerges victorious in the American presidential election will inherit an extremely polarized electorate,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Significant proportions of Americans claim they will be very upset if Trump (50%) or Harris (49%) win the election.”

The main motivator for American decided voters is the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (40%), followed by the candidate’s political party (21%), a desire for change (18%), a desire for stability (14%) and disgust with other contenders (10%).

Across the United States, 47% of likely voters expect a clear or close win for Harris in the presidential election, while 42% believe Trump will experience a clear or close win.

Just over two-in-five American likely voters (41%) expect to witness the winning candidate declare victory on Election Night (Nov. 5), but only 25% foresee a concession speech from the defeated candidate on that same night.

American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential nominees is best suited to manage 13 different issues.

Trump holds the upper hand over Harris on five issues: immigration (50% to 40%), national defense (50% to 40%), energy and oil (48% to 40%), the economy (48% to 44%) and foreign policy (47% to 42%).

Harris is ahead of Trump on four issues: health care (52% to 37%), the environment (51% to 35%), race relations (51% to 35%) and education (51% to 37%).

The two candidates are tied or virtually tied on four other issues: job creation (Harris 45%, Trump 45%), government accountability (Harris 44%, Trump 43%), managing the deficit (Trump 43%, Harris 42%) and crime (Trump 46%, Harris 43%),

President Joe Biden heads to the final stages of his term with an approval rating of 45% (+1). While just over four-in-five Democrats are satisfied with Biden’s performance (81%), the proportions are decidedly lower among Independents (36%) and Republicans (11%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2024, among 1,003 likely voters in the United States and 962 decided voters in the 2024 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here, and download the press release here.

Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race

November 4, 2024November 3, 2024By Mario Canseco

Democrats will win the Senate and Gubernatorial races in Washington; Republicans will achieve the “double” in Missouri.

Vancouver, BC [November 4, 2024] – On the eve of the 2024 United States Presidential Election, new polls conducted by Research Co. point to Republican victories in two states and Democratic wins in six others. In three battleground states, the two candidates remain within the margin of error of each other.

California

The last Republican presidential nominee to carry California was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Democrat Joe Biden defeated Republican Donald Trump in 2020, with 63% of all cast ballots. This year, Kamala Harris holds a 33-point advantage over Trump among decided voters (65% to 32%).

Voters in the Golden State are also set to send Democrat Adam Schiff to the U.S. Senate. Schiff holds commanding leads over Republican Steve Garvey (64% to 36% in the Special Election, and 62% to 38% in the Regular Election).

There is also majority support in California for two propositions that are on the ballot in 2024: Proposition 3 or “Constitutional Right to Marriage” (68%) and Proposition 36 or “Allows Felony Charges and Increases Sentences for Certain Drug and Theft Crimes” (69%).

Florida

In this century, the only Democratic nominee who carried the Sunshine State was Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump won Florida in 2016 with 49% of the vote and in 2020 with 51% of the vote.

This year, Trump is ahead of Harris in Florida (52% to 46%). In the U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Rick Scott is ahead of Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (52% to 45%).

Michigan

In 2016, Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.6% to 47.8%) to secure Michigan’s 16 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Michigan has 15 Electoral Votes.

Harris heads to Election Day with a four-point edge over Trump (51% to 47%). The lead is slightly larger for Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin against Republican challenger Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race (52% to 46%).

Minnesota

No Republican presidential nominee has carried the Great Lakes State since Richard Nixon in 1972. In 2024, Harris leads Trump by eight points (53% to 45%).

In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent democrat Amy Klobuchar is significantly ahead of Republican challenger Royce White (57% to 40%).

Missouri

Since 1968, the Democratic nominee for president has won the Show Me State three times: once under Jimmy Carter in 1976 and twice under Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. This year, Trump holds the upper hand over Harris (56% to 41%).

There is also majority support in Missouri for incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Josh Hawley against Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce (54% to 43%) and for Republican gubernatorial contender Mike Kehoe against Democrat Crystal Quade (56% to 41%).

New Jersey

In 1992, Bill Clinton ended a streak of six consecutive elections in which Republican presidential candidates carried the Garden State. The Democratic nominee has won New Jersey in every presidential election since. This year, Harris is 17 points ahead of Trump (58% to 41%).

In the race to the U.S. Senate, Democratic contender Andy Kim leads Republican candidate Curtis Bashaw (58% to 40%). Longtime U.S. Senator Bob Menendez—who resigned earlier this year following his conviction on charges of bribery, extortion, honest services fraud, obstruction of justice and conspiracy—abandoned his independent bid in August.

New York

In 1984, Ronald Reagan was the last Republican nominee to carry the Empire State in a presidential election. Trump—who was born in New York City—received 37% of the vote in 2016 and 38% of the vote in 2020, losing to Hillary Clinton (59%) and Joe Biden (61%) respectively. This year, Trump trails Harris by a smaller margin heading into Election Day (58% to 42%).

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand holds a significant lead over Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone (64% to 34%).

Pennsylvania

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush in 1988, defeating Clinton by 44,292 votes (48.2% to 47.5%).

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.0% to 48.8%) to capture Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Pennsylvania has 19 Electoral Votes.

There is no change in the perception of decided voters in Pennsylvania since our look at this race in early October. Harris remains statistically tied with Trump (50% to 49%). The lead is also small for incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. in his race against David McCormick of the Republican Party (50% to 48%).

Virginia

From 1968 to 2004, only Republican presidential candidates won the Old Dominion State. In 2008, Barack Obama began a run of four consecutive presidential ballots in which Virginia has been carried by Democrats. In 2024, Harris appears ready to extend this streak, with a six-point lead over Trump (52% to 46%).

In the U.S. Senate election, incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine is ahead of Republican contender Hung Cao (56% to 44%).

Washington

No Republican presidential nominee has won the Evergreen State since Reagan in 1984. Forty years later, Harris heads to Election Day with a significant lead over Trump (57% to 41%).

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell is ahead of Republican contender Raul Garcia (60% to 40%). Democrat Bob Ferguson leads Republican Dave Reichert in the state’s gubernatorial race (57% to 42%).

Wisconsin

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, defeating Clinton by 22,748 votes 47.2% to 46.5%).

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (49.4% to 48.8%) to win Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, Wisconsin will continue to have 10 Electoral Votes.

Compared to October, Harris has a larger advantage over Trump (51% to 47%). The U.S. Senate race is closer, with incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin slightly ahead of Republican candidate Eric Hovde (50% to 48%).

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2024, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in 11 American states: California, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Almost Half of Canadians Still Hoping for Senate Reform

November 1, 2024October 31, 2024By Mario Canseco

Only 12% of Canadians have met a sitting Senator, while at least one-in-four have met mayors, councillors or MPs.

Vancouver, BC [November 1, 2024] – A significantly low proportion of Canadians express satisfaction with the status quo related to the upper house, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, only 7% of Canadians say the country needs a Senate and the current guidelines that call for appointed senators should not be modified, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2022.

More than a quarter of Canadians (27%, +3) think Canada does not need a Senate and want all legislation to be reviewed and authorized by the House of Commons. Almost half (48%, +3) believe Canada needs a Senate, but Canadians should be allowed to take part in the process to choose senators.

Support for a type of Senate reform that would allow for the participation of Canadians is highest in Alberta (59%). More than two-in-five residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (51%), Ontario (47%), British Columbia (also 47%), Quebec (46%) and Atlantic Canada (44%) share this view.

When asked to choose between four different options for the Red Chamber, just under two-in-five Canadians (38%, +5) support reforming the Senate to allow for the direct election of senators.

Fewer than one-in-five Canadians prefer any of the other three options tested: having a selection committee that would appoint non-partisan senators (18%, +1), abolishing the Senate of Canada altogether (also 18%, +4) and the Prime Minister appointing senators (11%, +5).

“Support for the abolition of the Senate of Canada, in spite of its unique complexities, is highest among Canadians aged 55 and over (30%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer Canadians aged 35-to-54 (16%) and aged 18-to-34 (6%) feel the same way.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has only named senators that were recommended by an arm’s-length advisory body and not directly appointed by him.

Canadians are split on this decision, with 32% (+4), saying Trudeau’s changes have made the Senate “better”, 27% (-4) claiming the changes have had no effect, and 28% (+8) saying the situation is now worse.

Just over half of respondents (51%, -5) expect Canadians to one day be able to directly elect their senators, while 28% (+5) disagree with this notion.

Canadians aged 18-to-34 are more likely to believe that one day Canada will have direct elections to the Senate (62%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (55%) and aged 55 and over (37%).

Respondents were asked if they have met sitting political leaders during the course of their lives. While at least a quarter of Canadians have met a mayor (31%), councillor (27%), Member of Parliament (26%) or member of their provincial legislature (25%), only 12% have crossed paths with a sitting senator.

Residents of Quebec (17%) are more likely to have met a sitting senator than their counterparts in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (15%), Atlantic Canada (14%) British Columbia (11%), Alberta (also 11%) and Ontario (8%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 21 to October 23, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: abdallahh

Late Surge Gives Saskatchewan Its Closest Election Since 2003

October 27, 2024November 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

On the “Best Premier” question, Scott Moe and Carla Beck are separated by just four points.

Vancouver, BC [October 27, 2024] – Voters in Saskatchewan head to tomorrow’s provincial election with the two main parties locked in a statistical tie, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 48% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency, while 46% would support the governing Saskatchewan Party. Across Saskatchewan, 5% of decided voters would back other parties or independent candidates.

Since the previous Research Co. survey conducted in early October, province-wide support for the NDP has risen by five points, while backing for the Saskatchewan Party has dropped by the same margin.

Among male decided voters, the Saskatchewan Party has an eight-point lead over the NDP (52% to 44%). The NDP is now ahead of the Saskatchewan Party among female decided voters (51% to 42%).

The race is extremely close among decided voters aged 55 and over (Sask. Party 46%, NDP 45%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (49% for each party). The NDP is in first place among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (55% to 40%).

On a regional basis, the NDP holds the upper hand in Regina (59% to 37%) and Saskatoon (56% to 41%). The Saskatchewan Party remains ahead in the rest of the province (62% to 30%).

“The retention rate for the Saskatchewan Party has dropped from 85% in early October to 71% on the eve of the election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP has been stable on this indicator, with 91% of those who voted for the opposition party in 2020 saying they will remain there this year.”

As was the case in the early stage of the campaign, more than half of likely voters have a positive opinion of the performance of both Official Opposition and NDP leader Carla Beck (56%, -2) and Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe (52%, also -2).

The numbers moved drastically on the “Best Premier” question. Moe is still favoured by just over two-in-five likely voters (44%, +2), but Beck is now just four points behind (40%, +11).

Beck posts a momentum score of +16 (35% of likely voters in Saskatchewan say their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign, while 19% say it has worsened). Moe posts a score of -11 (21% “improved”, 32% “worsened”).

Three-in-ten likely voters in Saskatchewan (30%, +3) identify health care as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, -3), the economy and jobs (19%, +1), crime and public safety (9%, -1), education (6%, +1), the environment (4%, +1) and accountability (3%, +1).

The Saskatchewan Party has won the last four provincial elections with more than half of all ballots cast (51% in 2007, 64% in 2011, 63% in 2016 and 61% in 2020). The last election where a party formed the government without a majority of the vote was 2003, when the NDP secured 45% of the vote and 30 of the 58 seats at stake.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 25 to October 27, 2024, among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 474 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.5 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Tundraski

How British Columbia Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

October 21, 2024October 31, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most voters knew who they were going to vote for before the official start of the campaign.

Vancouver, BC [October 21, 2024] – The 2024 British Columbia provincial election was close all the way. In the four surveys conducted by Research Co. in September and October—after BC United suspended its campaign—the totals for the three main parties, as well as the proportion of decided voters who were considering independents or other political organizations, fluctuated by three percentage points or less.

The province is now in a scenario similar to the one experienced in 2017. Nobody has enough seats to command the Legislative Assembly. The governing party is currently slightly ahead of the opposition challengers on both seats and vote totals.

Our “Exit Poll” helps explain the lack of movement in the final stages of the democratic process. More than half of voters in British Columbia (53%) told us they made up their minds on which party or candidate to vote for prior to the official start of the campaign on September 21. This includes majorities of those who supported the ruling BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (57%) and the upstart Conservative Party of BC (54%). Placing the spotlight on specific candidates for things they said or posted online in the final days of the campaign did not matter much.

On a regional basis, the two areas with the highest proportions of “late deciders” are the Fraser Valley (25%) and Metro Vancouver (23%). In stark contrast, almost two thirds of Northern BC voters (65%) were set on their choice before the campaign began, making things significantly more complicated for independent candidates.

Similar proportions of British Columbians made their choice in the first weeks of the campaign (19%) or after the televised debate (20%). A larger proportion of voters ultimately chose the BC Greens in the final stage (27%) than the BC NDP (21%) or the Conservatives (17%).

The key motivators for BC NDP voters were the party’s ideas and policies (48%), the party’s leader (24%), the party’s candidate in the riding (10%) and a desire for stability (also 10%). Supporters of the BC Conservatives were persuaded by the party’s ideas and policies (43%), a desire for change (22%), the party’s leader (21%) and the party’s candidate in the riding (10%).

This finding explains the current state of affairs. More than one-in-five Conservatives yearned for change, and just one-in-ten New Democrats voted for stability. On change as a fundamental motivator, the BC Conservatives are just between the Manitoba New Democrats in 2023 (33%) and the Alberta New Democrats in the same year (9%). One of these parties formed a majority government, and the other did not.

The province awaits in a polarized state. Voters are more likely to say they would welcome majority (52%) or minority (48%) governments headed by the BC NDP than majority (43%) or minority (34%) administrations headed by the BC Conservatives. They are also more likely to think the BC NDP ran a positive campaign (55%) than the BC Greens (51%) or the BC Conservatives (43%).

A different type of coalescing of the “free enterprise movement” would have had other ramifications. Only 30% of voters would have backed the Conservatives if Kevin Falcon had been their leader instead of John Rustad. The proportions are lower for Christy Clark (27%), the last leader of the BC Liberals who formed a government. Falcon receives a resounding “No” from voters aged 55 and over, with 54% “strongly disagreeing” that his leadership of the BC Conservatives would have enticed them.

As was the case in 2005, 2009 and 2017, two provincial parties in British Columbia each received more than 40 per cent of the vote. When we pose the scenario of future coalitions, the reaction is mixed. Only 35% of voters think the Conservative Party of BC and BC United should consider a formal merger into a single provincial political party, including 55% of those who cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives in this year’s election. Support is higher (44%) for a merger encompassing the BC NDP and the BC Green Party, an idea backed by 67% of New Democrats and 49% of Greens.

The 2017 election ultimately ended with the resignation of Premier Clark and the formation of a government headed by BC NDP leader John Horgan, with support from the BC Greens. At this point, British Columbians are ready to see what develops in the Legislative Assembly with two familiar faces. Similar minorities believe Eby and Rustad should resign as leaders (42% and 43% respectively) if they fail to form the government. Their bases, however, are staunchly behind them. Almost two thirds of NDP voters (65%) believe Eby should stay put, and a majority of BC Conservatives (53%) want Rustad to remain at the helm of his party.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 19 and October 20, 2024, among 700 adults in British Columbia who voted in the 2024 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

No Major Movement in Final Stages of British Columbia Campaign

October 18, 2024October 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is three points ahead of the opposition Conservative Party of BC.

Vancouver, BC [October 18, 2024] – The perceptions of likely voters in British Columbia did not go through a major shift in the final week of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters—as well as British Columbians who have already voted by mail or in the advance polls—support the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding, while 41% back the Conservative Party of BC. The BC Green Party remains in third place with 12%, and 3% of decided voters would vote for independent candidates or other parties.

Compared to the previous Research Co. poll conducted in mid-October, the province-wide results see the New Democrats shedding one point and the Greens gaining one point.

On a regional basis, the New Democrats remain ahead of the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (49% to 40%) and Vancouver Island (45% to 33%, with the Greens at 20%).

The Conservatives have the upper-hand over the New Democrats in Northern BC (53% to 29%) and are three-points ahead in Southern BC (44% to 41%). The race is extremely close in the 10 Fraser Valley ridings, where the two main partes are tied with 47% each.

“The final poll of British Columbia’s provincial campaign continues to show a noticeable gender gap,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Women prefer the BC NDP over the BC Conservatives (46% to 37%), while men choose the opposition party over the governing one (45% to 41%).”

Decided voters aged 55 and over favour the BC NDP (51% to 37%), while their counterparts aged 18-to-34 give the BC Conservatives the edge (46% to 35%). The two parties are tied with 42% among decided voters aged 35-to-54.

Most decided voters who supported the BC Liberals in the 2020 election (63%) are backing the BC Conservatives in 2024. However, just one-in-four of these voters (25%) are now favouring the BC New Democrats.

Housing, homelessness and poverty remains the most important issue for likely voters in British Columbia (40%, -1), followed by health care (23%, +1), the economy and jobs (15%, -1), crime and public safety (6%, -1) and the environment (4%, =).

At the end of the campaign, the approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 53% (=). The numbers are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (50%, +5) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (42%, =).

Furstenau once again posts a positive momentum score (+12), with 24% of likely voters saying their impression of her has improved since the start of the campaign, and 12% claiming it has worsened. The momentum scores remain negative for the other two leaders (Eby at -4 and Rustad at -10).

Eby remains ahead on the “Best Premier” question, with 40% of likely voters (=) picking him for the province’s top political job, with 32% (+1) selecting Rustad. Furstenau is third with 14% (=), while 14% of likely voters (-1) are not sure.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 17 and October 18, 2024, among a representative sample of 803 likely voters in British Columbia, including 753 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

NDP Steady, Conservatives Fall Behind in British Columbia

October 15, 2024October 18, 2024By Mario Canseco

Housing, homelessness and poverty is still identified as the most important issue facing the province.

Vancouver, BC [October 15, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is ahead of the Conservative Party of BC in the final stages of British Columbia’s electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters (unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in early October) would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 41% (-3) would vote for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party is third with 11% (+2), while 3% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

The governing BC NDP has extended its lead over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (50% to 40%) and Vancouver Island (45% to 33%). The two parties are virtually tied in the Fraser Valley (BC NDP 45%, BC Conservatives 44%) and Southern BC (BC Conservatives 43%, BC NDP 42%), while the BC Conservatives remain ahead in Northern BC (52% to 34%).

“The BC Conservatives keep the upper hand among men (45%) and voters aged 18-to-34 (44%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC NDP is first among women (50%) and voters aged 55 and over (53%).”

Just over two-in-five likely voters in British Columbia (41%, +1) point to housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (22%, +3), the economy and jobs (17%, -1), crime and public safety (7%, -1) and the environment (4%, =).

More than half of likely voters in the province (52%, +1) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby is handling his duties. The rating improved for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (45%, +3) and dropped for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (42%, -3).

Furstenau posts a momentum score of +8 (23% of likely voters say their impression of her has improved since the start of the campaign, while 15% say it has worsened). The momentum scores are negative for both Eby (-4) and Rustad (-10).

There was little movement on the “Best Premier” question, with 40% of likely voters (=) selecting Eby and 31% (-1) choosing Rustad. Furstenau is third with 14% (+2), while 15% of likely voters (-2) are not sure.

On issue management, Eby is preferred over Rustad to handle nine different issues: health care (41% to 27%), housing, homelessness and poverty (39% to 30%), creating jobs (38% to 34%), transportation projects (37% to 29%), education (37% to 26%), seniors care (36% to 26%), dealing with municipal governments (35% to 30%), accountability (35% to 30%) and child care (34% to 24%).

Rustad leads Eby on crime and public safety (37% to 34%), while the two main leaders are tied or virtually tied on the economy (37% each), energy (Eby 33%, Rustad 30%) and managing the province’s finances (Eby 35%, Rustad 33%). Furstenau is the top choice to handle the environment (40%, with Eby at 24% and Rustad at 20%).

The top four traits likely voters see in Eby are being a good speaker and communicator (57%, =), having a vision for the future (51%, =), understanding the problems of residents (50%, +2) and being a strong and decisive leader (48%, +1).

The most mentioned traits for Rustad are having a vision for the future (49%, +2), being patronizing (44%, +4), being a good speaker and communicator (42%, -4), being a strong and decisive leader (42%, -3) and understanding the problems of residents (42%, -2).

The top traits for Furstenau are being a good speaker and communicator (44%, +5), being honest and trustworthy (42%, +4), having a vision for the future (41%, +3) and understanding the problems of residents (40%, +5).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2024, among a representative sample of 800 likely voters in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Ruling Party Stays Ahead of Opposition NDP in Saskatchewan

October 11, 2024October 10, 2024By Mario Canseco

The approval rating for both Carla Beck and Scott Moe surpasses 50%, but Moe is ahead on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2024] – The governing Saskatchewan Party is ahead of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in the early stages of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 51% of decided voters would support the Saskatchewan Party’s candidate in their constituency, while 43% would vote for the New Democrats. The Green Party is third with 3%, while 2% of decided voters would back other parties or independents.

“The Saskatchewan Party has a 15-point advantage over the NDP among male decided voters (55% to 40%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two parties are virtually tied among female decided voters (Sask. Party 48%, NDP 47%).”

On a regional basis, the race is very close in Saskatoon (NDP 47%, Sask. Party 46%). The governing party is ahead in Regina (51% to 45%) and in the rest of the province (61% to 35%).

Support for the Saskatchewan Party is highest among decided voters aged 55 and over (56%) and falls slightly among those aged 35-to-54 (52%) and those aged 18-to-34 (48%). Conversely. the New Democrats fare better with the youngest adults (46%) but drop among those aged 35-to-54 (43%) and those aged 55 and over (39%).

More than half of likely voters in the province approve of the performance of both Official Opposition and NDP leader Carla Beck (58%) and Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe (54%).

Fewer than two-in-five likely voters approve of five other leaders: Rose Marie Buscholl of the Progressive Conservative Party (35%), Naomi Hunter of the Greens (34%), Teunis Peters of the Saskatchewan Progress Party (33%), Jon Hromek of the Saskatchewan United Party (29%) and Phillip Zajac of the Buffalo Party (25%).

Beck posts an impressive momentum score of +14 (with 30% of likely voters in Saskatchewan saying their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign). Moe’s score on this question is even (24% of respondents say their views on him have improved, and 24% say they have worsened).

Moe holds the upper hand on Beck when decided voters are asked who would make the “Best Premier” of Saskatchewan (42% to 29%), with Hunter at 9%

Similar proportions of likely voters in Saskatchewan select two issues as the most important ones facing the province: health care (27%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (26%). Fewer respondents are primarily concerned about the economy and jobs (18%), crime and public safety (10%), education (5%), the environment (3%) and accountability (2%).

Moe leads Beck when respondents are asked about the person best suited to manage four issues: energy (40% to 30%), the economy and jobs (39% to 29%), crime and public safety (36% to 30%) and government accountability (36% to 30%).

Beck is ahead of Moe health care (38% to 32%) and education (37% to 29%). The two leaders are virtually tied on two other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (Moe 36%, Beck 34%) and the environment (Beck 32%, Moe 30%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 7 to October 9, 2024, among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 413 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.8 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Lean Blue in 2024 Race

October 8, 2024October 8, 2024By Mario Canseco

Heavy support from female decided voters pushes Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in the three battleground states.

Vancouver, BC [October 8, 2024] – A month before voters in the United States cast their ballots in the presidential election, Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Republican Party contender Donald Trump in three battleground states, according to new polls conducted by Research Co.

The surveys of American likely voters also give the upper hand to the Democratic Party candidates in the elections to the U.S. Senate that will take place in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Michigan

In 2016, Trump ended a streak of six consecutive presidential elections where the Great Lakes State was won by Democrats, defeating Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes in 2016 (47.5% to 47.3%)

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (50.6% to 47.8%) to secure Michigan’s 16 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, on account of reapportionment, Michigan has 15 Electoral Votes.

This month, Harris holds a three-point lead over Trump among decided voters (51% to 48%), with a particularly high level of support from women (57%) and likely voters aged 55 and over (55%).

In the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, Democratic Party candidate Elissa Slotkin is ahead of Republican Party contender Mike Rogers (52% to 47%).

Pennsylvania

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Keystone State since George H. W. Bush in 1988, defeating Clinton by 44,292 votes (48.2% to 47.5%).

This month, Harris is virtually tied with Trump among decided voters (50% to 49%). Trump does better with decided voters aged 35-to-54 (55%), while Harris is ahead among those aged 18-to-34 (55%) and those aged 55 and over (54%).

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr.—first elected in 2006 with 58.7% of the vote, and earning new terms in 2012 with 53.7% and in 2018 with 55.7% of the vote—leads Republican Party challenger David McCormick (51% to 48%).

Wisconsin

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican nominee to win the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984, defeating Clinton by 22,748 votes 47.2% to 46.5%).

In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump (49.4% to 48.8%) to win Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral Votes. In this year’s presidential election, Wisconsin will continue to have 10 Electoral Votes.

This month, Harris is two points ahead of Trump among decided voters (50% to 48%). Practically two thirds of decided female voters (64%) are supporting the Democratic presidential nominee.

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin—first elected in 2012 with 51.4% of the vote and re-elected in 2018 with 55.4%—is ahead of Republican Party contender Eric Hovde (52% to 47%).

“Independent voters in will be crucial in securing a victory for either of the main presidential candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than one-in-five Independents in both Wisconsin (24%) and Michigan (22%) have not made up their minds yet.”

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted from October 5 to October 7, 2024, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in three American states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Harris Leads Trump in 2024 United States Nationwide Vote

October 7, 2024November 3, 2024By Mario Canseco

The former president is the top choice for male voters, while women are more supportive of the current vice president.

Vancouver, BC [October 7, 2024] – Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris holds the upper hand over Republican Party nominee Donald Trump in the American presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 52% of decided voters would support the current vice president or have already voted for her, while 47% would back the former president.

“Harris holds a 15-point lead over Trump among female decided voters (57% to 42%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is ahead of Harris among male voters (52% to 47%).”

On a regional basis, Harris holds sizeable leads over Trump in the West (58% to 40%) and the Northeast (55% to 43%). Trump is first in the South (51% to 48%) while the two candidates are virtually tied in the Midwest (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).

Only 5% of decided voters say they could change their mind and support a different candidate in the presidential election. The proportion of undecided likely voters with four weeks to go in the campaign is 4%.

More than half of white decided voters (54%) would cast a ballot for Trump or have already done so. Harris leads among decided voters who are African American (71%) or Hispanic / Latino (61%).

Harris is the top choice for American decided voters who get their news from MSNBC / CNBC (81%), CNN (67%) or a local network (53%), while Trump is ahead among those who watch Fox News (68%).

Harris holds a five-point lead over Trump among decided voters who have a cat in their household (52% to 47%). The race is closer among decided voters who have a dog at home (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).

Decided voters in the United States cite the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (43%) as the main reason behind their choice, followed by the candidate’s political party (24%), desire for stability (14%), desire for change (also 14%) and disgust with other candidates (8%).

These findings are very similar among decided voters who are backing either Harris or Trump, with one exception. While 10% of Harris voters say their main motivator is “disgust with other candidates”, the proportion is lower (5%) among Trump voters.

American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential candidates is best suited to deal with 13 different issues.

Harris holds the upper hand over Trump on five issues: health care (52% to 36%), education (52% to 36%), the environment (52% to 35%), race relations (50% to 35%) and government accountability (47% to 41%). Trump leads Harris on two issues: immigration (50% to 39%) and national defence (48% to 41%).

The two nominees are virtually tied on six other issues: the economy (Harris 47%, Trump 45%), job creation (Harris 47%, Trump 44%), crime (Trump 45%, Harris 44%), foreign Policy (Trump 45%, Harris 43%), energy and oil (Trump 45%, Harris 43%) and managing the deficit (Trump 44%, Harris 41%).

The approval rating for U.S. President Joe Biden stands at 44% nationwide. Democrats are significantly more likely to express satisfaction with Biden’s performance at this moment (82%) than Independents (34%) or Republicans (13%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 4 to October 6, 2024, among 1,001 likely voters in the United States and 926 decided voters in the 2024 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here, and download the press release here.