Tag: Ontario

The governing party connected equally well on leadership and policies. The two opposition parties were unable to break through on desire for change.

The foibles of Canada’s first-past-the-post system can explain why supporters of the Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario are going through mixed feelings after last week’s provincial election. Premier Doug Ford will form a majority government once again, with his party going from 41% of the vote and 83 seats in 2022, to 43% of the vote and 80 seats in 2025.

The early election, designed to give Ford a mandate than would last longer than the second term of United States President Donald Trump, once again showed how widely vote efficiency can vary. The Ontario New Democratic Paty (NDP) will form the Official Opposition, with 27 seats secured with 19% of the province-wide vote. The Ontario Liberal Party received 30% of all cast ballots but won just 14 seats.

In our “Exit Poll”, more than three-in-five Ontarians (63%) claim to have voted strategically, defined as voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. The numbers do not sway much among supporters of specific political parties: 68% for Liberals, 63% for New Democrats and 61% for Progressive Conservatives. We are almost as likely to find a PC supporter who voted against the Liberals or New Democrats, than to find a hard-core Liberal who went for the NDP in order to ensure that a seat did not turn blue.

The main motivators for Progressive Conservative supporters were the party’s leader (33%) and the party’s ideas and policies (also 33%). The score for the leaders of the Liberals and New Democrats is slightly lower (31% and 26% respectively).

Desire for change—which usually jumps when the opposition connects well—sits at a low 14% for both opposition parties. The party’s candidate in the riding rises to 17% for the New Democrats, well ahead of the Liberals (11%) and Progressive Conservatives (9%).

Ontarians are still divided on whether the Liberals and New Democrats should merge into a single political party, with 44% agreeing with the concept and 42% disagreeing with it. Majorities of Ontarians who cast a ballot for Liberal candidates (62%) and New Democratic candidates (52%) like the idea, but only 32% of those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives concur.

In our 2022 Exit Poll, only 39% of Ontarians welcomed a possible Liberal-NDP merger. As another election cycle goes by without a solid alternative to the Progressive Conservatives, appetite for a deal featuring centre-left parties has grown.

In addition, more Ontarians are getting behind electoral reform. More than three-in-five voters (62%) think Ontario should implement a system of proportional representation for provincial elections, up four points since 2022. What is striking about the findings this year is that voters aged 35-to-54 are more likely to desire a different system (67%) than their counterparts aged 18-to-34 (61%) and aged 55 and over (58%). In any case, we have majorities across all age groups who openly wonder whether a party should have so much control of the legislature with fewer than 50 per cent of all cast ballots.

Ford’s latest transformation into “Captain Canada” has not gone unnoticed. Almost half of provincial voters in Ontario (47%) say they would like to see him become leader of the Conservative Party of Canada at some point. The gender gap on this question is negligible (Men 49%, Women 45%) and the idea is particularly appealing to Ontario voters aged 18-to-34 (51%), as well as residents of two seat-rich regions: the 905 (50%) and the 416 (49%) area codes.

We asked these same voters if they would like to see Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister later this year. The province-wide proportion is lower (43%), but while almost half of men are ready to see Poilievre heading the federal government (49%), only 39% of women concur.

In a troubling finding for Conservative supporters, just 36% of Ontario’s oldest adults—traditionally the most reliable voters—would like to see Poilievre supplant Justin Trudeau. This is a far cry from the state of affairs at the start of the year, when 51% of decided voters in Ontario were with the Conservatives before Trudeau announced his intention to step down. Poilievre remains popular in the 905 (47%) and the 416 (45%) regions, but his numbers are not as good as what Ford commands as a “future” federal Conservative leader.

All polls are snapshots, and this one is unique for several reasons. Poilievre is not being compared to any Liberal rival. The survey focuses only on Ontarians who cast a ballot in the latest provincial election, and we can expect turnout to be higher federally than what has been observed in the two previous Ontario provincial ballots. Still, it is clear that Ford’s decision to call an election because of what transpired in the United States has paid off. His popularity has grown, and some Ontarians are starting to wonder if he is ready for a larger job than the one he has just been re-elected to.

Find our data tables here. 

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 27 to March 1, 2025, among 501 Ontario adults who voted in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Vancouver, BC [February 26, 2025] – Public support for the governing Progressive Conservatives has not dwindled in the final stages of Ontario’s provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 46% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-February) say they will support the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party tomorrow or have already done so.

The Ontario Liberal Party is in second place with 30% (-1), followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17% (+2) and the Ontario Green Party with 5% (+1). An additional 2% of decided voters (-2) would support other parties or independent candidates.

“More than half of decided voters aged 55 and over in Ontario (55%) are backing the Progressive Conservatives,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Support for the governing party is lower among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (49%) and aged 18-to-34 (37%).”

The approval rating for Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford is unchanged at 56%. Just under half of Ontarians (47%, +4) are satisfied with the way Official Opposition and Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles has managed her duties. The numbers are lower for Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie (43%, -5) and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%, =).

The four main party leaders reach the final day of campaigning with negative momentum scores: -4 for Crombie, -3 for Ford and -1 for both Stiles and Schreiner.

Ford maintains a large lead on the “Best Premier” question, with 44% (-2). Crombie is second with 26% (+4), followed by Stiles (14%, +3) and Schreiner (5%, =).

Three-in-ten Ontarians (30%, +2) identify the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (28%, =), health care (18%, -1), government accountability (5%, =) and crime and public safety (4%, -1).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on February 25 and February 26, 2025, among 701 Ontario adults, including 666 decided voters in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Almost half of Ontarians think Doug Ford would be the “Best Premier” for Canada’s most populous province.

Vancouver, BC [February 14, 2025] – The governing Progressive Conservative Party holds a sizeable advantage over all other contenders in Ontario’s provincial election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarians, 45% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their constituency in this month’s provincial ballot.

The Ontario Liberal Party is second with 31%, followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% and the Ontario Green Party with 4%. An additional 4% of decided voters would support other parties or independent candidates.

The Progressive Conservatives are ahead across all areas of the province, with particularly high showings in the 905 Region (52%), Northern Ontario (51%) and the 416 Region (46%).

“At this point in the 2022 provincial campaign, the governing Progressive Conservatives were garnering the support of 34% of decided voters in Ontario,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Their lead in 2025 is markedly higher.”

More than half of Ontarians (56%) approve of the performance of Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford. The rating is lower for Ontario Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie (48%), Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Marit Stiles (43%) and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%).

More than one-in-four Ontarians (27%) say their opinion of Ford has improved since the start of the campaign. The numbers on this indicator are lower for Crombie (21%), Stiles (18%) and Schreiner (12%).

Almost half of Ontarians (46%) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province, followed by Crombie (22%), Stiles (11%) and Schreiner (5%).

Two issues are seen as the most important facing the province right now: the economy and jobs (28%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (also 28%). Fewer Ontarians are primarily concerned about health care (19%), government accountability (5%) or crime and public safety (also 5%).

Ford is seen as better suited to manage the economy and jobs (43%), energy and pipelines (also 43%), crime and public safety (42%), accountability (37%), housing, poverty and homelessness (34%), health care (32%), the environment (30%) and education (also 30%).

Crombie’s highest numbers are on health care (26%) and education (25%), while Stiles does best on housing, poverty and homelessness (18%).

More than two-in-five Ontarians (44%) believe the Ontario Liberals and the Ontario NDP should merge into a single political party, while just over a third (36%) disagree with this idea.

Half of residents of the 416 Region (50%) are in favour of a Liberal-NDP merger. The proportions are lower in the 905 Region (48%), Eastern Ontario (45%), Southwestern Ontario (38%) and Northern Ontario (35%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from February 11 to February 13, 2025, among 702 Ontario adults, including 639 decided voters in the 2025 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

While most voters pointed out that it was “time for change”, the two main opposition leaders never gained on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [June 8, 2022] – The Progressive Conservative Party will form a majority government once again in Ontario, after all the votes from the 2022 provincial election have been tallied. An “exit poll” conducted by Research Co. provides an opportunity to look at why the sentiment for change that was expressed by most voters never materialized.

In our final poll of the campaign, Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford had a significant advantage over his main rivals on the “Best Premier” question. While 37% of Ontarians favoured Ford for the province’s top job, the rating was decidedly lower for Official Opposition and Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Andrea Horwath (21%) and Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (19%).

The election’s outcome does not suggest an extraordinary rekindling of voters with Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, but rather a failure from the two opposition parties to entice voters. In 2018, right before Ford’s victory and the end of the tenure of Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, more than three-in-four voters in Ontario (77%) thought a new premier was needed.

In our survey of Ontarians who cast a ballot in the 2022 provincial election, 64% of respondents told us that it was “time for a change of government” in the province. The desire to make Ford a one-term premier encompassed enormous proportions of Ontarians who voted for the NDP (95%) and the Liberals (88%) this year.

Still, when Ontario voters were asked to point out their main motivation for supporting a particular party in 2022, more than two-in-five (44%) mentioned ideas and policies. This indicator is more powerful for New Democrats (48%) and Liberals (47%) than for Progressive Conservatives (40%).

On the other hand, one-in-four Ontario voters (25%) say their ballot was cast primarily on account of the party’s leader. This time, the two opposition parties lag. While 31% of Progressive Conservatives thought of the leader more than anything, the numbers drop to 21% among those who supported either the New Democrats or the Liberals.

Across Ontario, only 9% of voters said they were thinking of a desire for change when casting their ballot. This indicator usually rises in provincewide elections when incumbents are unpopular. Even among New Democrats and Liberals, the number of voters who actively yearned for a new government was small (14% and 12% respectively).

One of the biggest hindrances that centre-left supporters may point to is the electoral system. In spite of endless discussions about “strategic voting”—with some pointing to predictions in an attempt to lure voters to one party or another—only 45% of Ontarians said they cast their ballot strategically: voting for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they dislike, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. As expected, “strategic voting” was significantly more favoured by voters aged 18-to-34 (62%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (47%) and aged 55 and over (33%).

But even if “strategic voting” failed to deliver change, many Ontarians would be happy with proportional representation in provincial elections. Across the province, 58% of voters like this idea. There is no generation gap on this question, with similar proportions of voters aged 18-to-34 (58%), aged 35-to-54 (59%) and aged 55 and over (57%) welcoming a new system. As expected, those who cast ballots for the New Democrats (70%) and Liberals (64%) are more enthused about the prospect of electoral reform than those who voted for the Progressive Conservatives (53%).

Ontario voters are not entirely convinced on enacting a merger of the two centre-left parties. Just under two-in-five Ontario voters (39%) would welcome this idea, but this number includes majorities of those who cast ballots for the Liberals (58%) and the New Democrats (57%). Progressive Conservative voters, who envisioned their party coasting to a win, are significantly more skeptical: only 23% would like to see a united “Liberal Democrat” party in 2026.

Even with a majority mandate, and with severe tasks ahead for the opposition, there is a sense of dismay from voters. Practically four-in-five (79%) say they would like to see better people serving as leaders of Ontario’s main political parties. On this question, significant majorities of supporters of the New Democrats (87%), Liberals (83%) and Progressive Conservatives (72%) think these political organizations owe them better options, individually and collectively.

Find our data tables here. 

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on June 1 and June 2, 2022, among 500 Ontario adults who voted in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.