Double-Digit Advantage for Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives

Half of Ontarians (50%) approve of the performance of Doug Ford as Premier and PC leader, while 46% disapprove.

Vancouver, BC [June 1, 2022] – Public support for the governing Progressive Conservative Party has increased as the provincial election in Ontario draws near, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Ontarian adults, 39% of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for the Ontario PC candidate in their riding tomorrow or have already done so, up five points since the previous Research Co. poll completed in mid-May.

The Ontario Liberal Party remains in second place with 26% (-3), followed by the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) with 23% (=), the Ontario Green Party with 6% (-1), the New Blue Party of Ontario with 3% (=) and the Ontario Party with 1% (=).

Since mid-May, the Progressive Conservatives have improved their standing in Ontario among both male decided voters (42%, +5) and female decided voters (37%, +7).

More than two-in-five decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (also 42%) intend to back an Ontario PC candidate. The race is closer among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (PC 31%, Liberal 28%, NDP 26%).

“The Progressive Conservatives are keeping 81% of their 2018 voters, while the New Democrats are only maintaining 71% of them,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The Ontario Liberals are only attracting 52% of Ontarians who voted for the federal Liberal Party in last year’s Canadian federal election, as one-in-four of these voters (25%) are planning to vote for Ontario PC candidates tomorrow.”

Half of Ontarians (50%, +4) approve of the way Premier and Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford has handled his duties.

The rating is lower for Official Opposition and Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath (46%, -1) Ontario Liberal Party leader Steven Del Duca (42%, =), Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner (40%, +9), New Blue Party of Ontario leader Jim Karahalios (16%, +3) and Ontario Party leader Derek Sloan (16%, +4).

On the momentum question, Schreiner does particularly well, with 18% of Ontarians (+9 since mid-May) saying their opinion of the Ontario Green Party leader has improved since the electoral campaign started. The needle did not move for Del Duca (20%, =) and smaller gains are seen for Horwath (19%, +2), Ford (also 19%, +3), Karahalios (6%, +2) and Sloan (5%, +2).

More than a third of Ontarians (37%, +4) believe Ford would make the best premier of the province among the six main party leaders. Horwath is a distant second with 21% (-2), followed by Del Duca (19%, -1), Schreiner (7%, +4), Karahalios (2%, =) and Sloan (also 2%, =).

There is little movement on the issue landscape, where the top ranking belongs to housing, poverty and homelessness (26%, =), followed by health care (23%, -2) and the economy and jobs (22%, +2).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on May 31 and June 1, 2022, among 700 Ontario adults, including 659 decided voters in the 2022 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.8 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e]

Photo Credit: Josh Evnin