Tag: Manitoba

Perception of Crime Highest in Manitoba, Lowest in Saskatchewan

Perception of Crime Highest in Manitoba, Lowest in Saskatchewan

By Mario Canseco

More than half of British Columbians and Albertans believe criminal activity has increased in the past four years.

Vancouver, BC [April 12, 2024] – Residents of Manitoba are more likely to believe that crime is on the rise in their community, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative samples in five Canadian provinces, 63% of Manitobans say the level of criminal activity has increased in their community over the past four years, up nine points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in November 2020.

The proportions of residents who feel this way are lower in British Columbia (54%, -4 since 2023), Alberta (also 54%, +6 since 2020), Ontario (48%) and Saskatchewan (42%, +1 since 2020).

Fewer than one-in-four residents of Alberta (23%, -1), Saskatchewan (20%, -7), Manitoba (18%, -13), British Columbia (17%, -1) and Ontario (14%) have been victims of a crime involving the police (such as an assault or a car break-in) in their community over the past four years.

Majorities of Manitobans (54%), Albertans (also 54%) and British Columbians (51%, -1) say they fear becoming victims of a crime in their community “a great deal” or “a fair amount”. The proportions are lower in Ontario (45%) and Saskatchewan (37%).

More than seven-in-ten Ontarians (71%) say they would feel “very safe” or “moderately safe” walking alone in their own neighbourhood after dark. Majorities of respondents in Saskatchewan (65%), British Columbia (also 65%, +2), Alberta (63%) and Manitoba (57%) express the same view.

Residents of the five Canadian provinces hold differing views when asked about which factors are to blame “a great deal” for the current situation regarding crime and public safety in your community.

More than half of British Columbians (56%, -3) mention addiction and mental health issues, followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (39%, -2), poverty and inequality (36%, +2), an inadequate court system (35%, -4) and a bad economy and unemployment (29%, +7).

Albertans also place addiction and mental health issues at the top of their list (48%), followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (33%), an inadequate court system (also 33%), poverty and inequality (31%) and bad economy and unemployment (also 31%).

In Saskatchewan, at least two-in-five residents blame gangs and the illegal drug trade (43%) and addiction and mental health issues (40%), followed by poverty and inequality (30%), lack of values and improper education for youth (29%) and an inadequate court system (27%).

Most Manitobans (56%) blame addiction and mental health issues, followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (44%), an inadequate court system (35%), poverty and inequality (34%), and lack of values and improper education for youth (30%).

In Ontario, addiction and mental health issues garner the most mentions (39%), followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (35%), poverty and inequality (31%), lack of values and improper education for youth (30%) and bad economy and unemployment (29%).

“Most residents of these five Canadian provinces gravitate primarily to addiction and mental health when thinking about crime and public safety,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In no province do we see at least three-in-ten respondents blaming insufficient policing or lack of resources to combat crime for the current situation.”

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted from March 29 to March 31, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults in Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan, 600 adults in Manitoba and 600 adults in Ontario. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region for each province. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, 19 times out of 20.

Find the data tables for British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

How Manitoba Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

How Manitoba Voted: A Provincial “Exit Poll”.

By Mario Canseco

A third of NDP voters cited “change” as the main motivator behind their decision. “Stability” was important for only 19% of PC voters.

Vancouver, BC [October 6, 2023] – In the democratic processes held in Ontario and Quebec in 2022, it was apparent by the mid-way point of each campaign that the governing parties would be returned to power. Alberta in 2023 was different, as the televised debate enabled a premier who had not been tested at the ballot box to ultimately succeed in courting voters.

In Manitoba, the Progressive Conservatives also had an opportunity to re-connect with the electorate. The televised debate, however, did not help Heather Stefanson. In our final poll, we saw virtually no movement on her approval numbers from what was observed in mid-September. There was also an increase in the proportion of likely voters who regarded New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew as the “Best Premier” for the province.

It is usual for voters in a provincial election to be primarily drawn by the ideas and policies of contending parties. Manitoba was not different in this regard, with 44% of PC voters and 40% of NDP voters saying that “ideas and policies” were the most important factor in their decision.

The significant discrepancy arrives on two other indicators. One third of NDP voters (33%) say their main motivation was a “desire for change”, while just under one-in-five PC voters (19%) mentioned a “desire for stability”. Other issues, such as the party’s leader (NDP 12%, PC 10%) and the party’s candidate in their riding (NDP 6%, PC 9%) did not register as much.

The three previous provincial elections saw the same premiers returned to power. In Quebec, “desire for change” was the main motivator for 20% of Québec solidaire voters. The numbers on this indicator were decidedly lower in Ontario (14% and 12% respectively among NDP and Liberal voters) and Alberta (9% among NDP voters). Opposition voters may have been upset with the status quo, but found it difficult to imagine their respective provinces under a different head of government.

Our “Exit Poll” in Manitoba shows that almost seven-in-ten voters in the province (69%) thought it was time for a change of government. In addition, two-in-five (40%) claim to be “very upset” because the NDP will be in charge of the provincial administration once more. There is some resistance among PC voters who look at their party in opposition for the first time since 2016, but not overwhelming animosity towards the provincial NDP.

Research Co.’s province-wide prediction was within the margin of error advertised for all parties. While our final survey was correct in foreseeing a majority of voters in Winnipeg casting a ballot for the NDP, it fell short in pinpointing the final level of support the Progressive Conservatives would garner in the remaining constituencies.

Finally, more than seven-in-ten voters in Manitoba claim to have voted to support policies they like (72%) and for a candidate or party they liked (74%). The electorate appears more fractured on a separate item, in which 66% of voters claim that the province will be “in a bad place” under a specific governing party. The proportions are practically the same among PC and NDP voters. The difference lies on how many more Manitobans cast ballots for one of these parties.

Find our data tables here.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 3 and October 4, 2023, among 500 adults in Manitoba who voted in the 2023 provincial election. The margin of error — which measures sample variability — is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day

Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day

By Mario Canseco

Wab Kinew has overtaken Heather Stefanson when likely voters ponder who would make the best head of government.

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2023] – The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a significant advantage over the governing Progressive Conservative Party in Manitoba, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, 48% of decided voters in Manitoba would cast a ballot for the NDP candidate in their constituency or have already done so, up seven points since the previous Research Co. survey conducted in mid-September.

The Progressive Conservatives are second with 39% (=), followed by the Liberal Party with 10% (-4), the Green Party with 2% (-1) and other parties and independents with 1% (-1).

Majorities of decided voters aged 18-to-34 (52%) and aged 35-to-54 (55%) are currently supporting the NDP, as well as 55% of those who reside in Winnipeg. The Progressive Conservatives do better in the rest of Manitoba (48%) and are practically tied with the New Democrats among decided voters aged 55 and over (44% to 43%).

More than four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (87%) say they will not change their mind before participating in the democratic process tomorrow.

The approval rating for Official Opposition and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew stands at 51% in the final stages of the campaign (+4). The numbers are lower for Liberal Party leader Dougald Lamont (38%, +2), Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Heather Stefanson (36%, -1) and Green Party leader Janine Gibson (18%, =).

Almost two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (38%, +9) think Kinew would make the “Best Premier” of the province. Stefanson is second with 30% (=), followed by Lamont (11%, -3) and Gibson (3%, +1).

Perceptions of Stefanson have become more negative, with 38% of likely voters saying their opinion of her has worsened since the start of the campaign. This gives Stefanson a momentum score of -27, compared to -7 for Lamont, -5 for Gibson and +6 for Kinew.

Health care remains the most important issue for two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (40%, -1), followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (20%, +3), the economy and jobs (15%, +1) and crime and public safety (13%, +1).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Manitoba, including 557 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Photo Credit: Ken Eckert

Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues

Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues

By Mario Canseco

Wab Kinew seen as the best leader to handle health care, while Heather Stefanson scores well on the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 18, 2023] – There is no clear frontrunner in Manitoba’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, 41% of decided voters in Manitoba would support the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), while 39% would back the governing Progressive Conservative Party.

The Liberal Party is third with 14%, followed by the Green Party with 3%. Across the province, 2% of decided voters would cast ballots for independents or candidates from other parties.

“On two specific age groups, Manitoba’s election is remarkably close,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The New Democrats and the Progressive Conservatives are separated by two points or less among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42% to 40%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (43% to 42%).”

Fewer than one-in-four decided voters in Manitoba (23%) say they may change their mind and support a different party or candidate in this election—including 14% of those who currently plan to vote for the Progressive Conservatives and 18% of those who currently plan to support the New Democrats.

Just under half of likely voters in Manitoba (47%) approve of the way Official Opposition and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew is handling his duties. The rating is lower for Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Heather Stefanson (37%), Liberal Party leader Dougald Lamont (36%) and Green Party leader Janine Gibson (18%).

Kinew is the only leader with a positive momentum score since the start of the campaign (+2, with 24% of likely voters in Manitoba saying their opinion of him has improved). Lamont is at -4, Gibson at -8 and Stefanson at -23 (with 34% of likely voters saying their opinion of her has worsened).

Likely voters in Manitoba are profoundly divided when asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, with Stefanson practically tied with Kinew (30% to 29%), followed by Lamont (14%) and Gibson (2%).

Just over two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (41%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province—a proportion that rises to 57% among those aged 55 and over.

Housing, poverty and homelessness is second on the list of concerns in the province (17%), followed by the economy and jobs (14%), crime and public safety (also 14%) and the environment (4%).

Kinew is ahead of Stefanson when likely voters in Manitoba are asked who would be the best person to manage health care (40% to 26%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 25%). Stefanson leads Kinew on the economy and jobs (31% to 27%) and energy (30% to 26%).

The difference between the two leaders is negligible or inexistent on four other areas of concern: the environment (Kinew 25%, Stefanson 24%), government accountability (Kinew 28%, Stefanson 27%), crime and public safety (Kinew 33%, Stefanson 31%) and education (each contender at 31%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 15 to September 17, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Manitoba, including 539 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Western Canadians Support Banning Single-Use Plastics

Western Canadians Support Banning Single-Use Plastics

By Mario Canseco

Majorities of residents of the four Canadian provinces say they are relying on reusable bags when shopping for groceries.

Vancouver, BC [January 12, 2021] – The federal government’s plan to curb the use of single-use plastics in Canada is supported by most residents of the four western provinces, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 82% of British Columbians, 78% of Manitobans, 71% of Albertans and 69% of Saskatchewanians support the proposal.

The federal plan calls for as ban on grocery checkout bags, straws, stir sticks, six-pack rings, plastic cutlery and food takeout containers made from hard-to-recycle plastics.

Support for the ban on single-use plastics is highest among British Columbians who voted for the BC Green Party in the 2020 provincial election (91%), as well as those who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the most recent provincial democratic processes held in Saskatchewan (90%) and Alberta (86%).

In British Columbia, more than three-in-four respondents to this survey (77%) say they rely on their own re-usable bag when shopping for groceries—a proportion that rises to 80% among those aged 35-to-54.

Majorities of residents of Alberta (69%), Saskatchewan (64%) and Manitoba (60%) are also using their own bags when they shop for groceries, instead of bags provided by the stores.

More than half of British Columbians (54%) say they go out of their way to recycle—such as holding on to bottles and cans until they can be placed into a proper recycling bin—“all of the time”. The proportion for this particular behaviour is slightly lower in Saskatchewan (50%), Manitoba (48%) and Alberta (46%).

One-in-four British Columbians (26%) say they limit hot water usage in their home—taking shorter showers or running the washing machine or dishwasher with full loads only—“all of the time”, compared to 19% in both Alberta and Saskatchewan and 17% in Manitoba.

Other behaviours are not as widely embraced across Western Canada. While 13% of British Columbians and 11% of Albertans say they unplug electrical devices in their home—such as TVs, computers and cell phone chargers—when they are not in use “all of the time”, only 5% of Saskatchewanians and 4% of Manitobans follow the same course of action.

Fewer than one-in-ten residents of each province say they buy biodegradable products or eat organic or home-grown foods “all of the time.”

“Western Canadians aged 55 and over are more likely to be keeping an eye on hot water usage in their homes,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, those aged 18-to-34 have been quicker to adopt biodegradable products.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from January 4 to January 6, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults In Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan and 600 adults in Manitoba. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Western Canadians Perceive Increase in Criminal Activity

Western Canadians Perceive Increase in Criminal Activity

By Mario Canseco

Fewer than a third of residents of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have reported crimes to the police.

Vancouver, BC [November 24, 2020] – More than two-in-five residents of four Canadian provinces believe that unlawful activity is on the rise in their communities, even if significantly fewer have actually been victims of crime, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 54% of Manitobans say the level of criminal activity has increased in their community over the past three years.

Almost half of Albertans (48%) also feel that criminal activity in their communities has risen in the past three years. The numbers are slightly lower in British Columbia (42%) and Saskatchewan (41%).

The proportion of residents of the four western provinces who feel crime has decreased is in single digits (7% in Manitoba, 6% in Alberta and British Columbia, and 5% in Saskatchewan).

When respondents are asked if they have been victims of a crime that was reported to the police (such as an assault or a car break-in) in their community, only 20% of British Columbians answered affirmatively. The proportion is higher in Alberta (24%), Saskatchewan (27%) and Manitoba (31%).

“There is a clear divide between perceptions of crime and the reality that communities across Western Canada are reporting,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Respondents are significantly more likely to believe that unlawful activity has increased than to have personally experienced crime.”

In British Columbia, three-in-ten residents of Northern BC (31%) and one-in-five residents of Metro Vancouver (21%) say that they have been victims of a crime that was reported to the police over the past three years. 

In Alberta, residents of Edmonton are more likely to have experienced crime (26%) than those in Calgary (22%) or in the rest of the province (23%). 

A similar situation is observed in Saskatchewan, where more residents of Saskatoon (28%) say they have been victims of crime than those who live in Regina (24%) or in the rest of the province (18%).

In Manitoba, the proportion criminal activity reported to the police stands at 29% in Winnipeg and at 33% in the remaining areas of the province.

The groups that are more likely to believe that criminal activity is on the rise in their communities are British Columbians aged 55 and over (45%), Albertans aged 55 and over (56%), women in Saskatchewan (45%) and Manitobans aged 35-to-54 (58%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults In Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan and 600 adults in Manitoba. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and+/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

By Mario Canseco

Health care remains the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives are still in first place as voters in Manitoba prepare to participate in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 44% of decided voters (-2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late August) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains in second place with 31% (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 16% (+2) and the Green Party with 7% (-1).

The Progressive Conservatives hold their best numbers with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%) and men (50%). The New Democrats are ahead among voters aged 18-to-34 (33%).

While the race is tied in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (34% for each of the two main contending parties), the Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead in the rest of the province (55%, with the NDP at 28%).

“Practically four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (79%) say they will not change their mind before casting their ballot,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This proportion includes 84% of those who are planning to support the governing Progressive Conservatives.”

Three-in-ten Manitobans (30%, -4) believe incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister would make the best head of government for the province.

NDP and Official Opposition leader Wab Kinew is second with 19% (+2), followed by Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party with 16% (+6) and James Beddome of the Green Party with 8% (+4). More than one-in-four of the province’s residents (27%, -7) are undecided on this question.

Health care (38%, -10) remains the most important issue facing the province for Manitobans, followed by the economy and jobs (19%, +8), crime and public safety (10%, -4) and the environment (9%, +4).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 6 to September 9, 2019 among 536 Manitoba adults, including 483 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.5 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba

Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba

By Mario Canseco

On the “Best Premier” question, Brian Pallister leads Wab Kinew by a 2-to-1 margin.

Vancouver, BC [August 30, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives head to the final stages of the provincial electoral campaign in Manitoba as the frontrunners, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 46% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is second with 30%, followed by the Liberal Party with 14% and the Green Party with 8%.

The Progressive Conservatives are particularly popular with male voters (51%), those aged 55 and over (54%) and those who do not live in Winnipeg (58%).

“Seven-in-ten decided voters (72%) say they will not change their mind before election day in Manitoba,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This includes 83% of those who plan to support the Progressive Conservatives and 76% of those who plan to vote for the NDP.”

Almost half of Manitobans (48%) think health care is the most important issue facing the province today. Crime and public safety (14%) and the economy and jobs (11%) are the only other issues that reach double digits.

Two-in-five Manitobans (40%) approve of the way Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Brian Pallister is handling his job, while 47% disapprove.

The approval rating is lower for Official Opposition and NDP leader Wab Kinew (33%), Liberal leader Dougald Lamont (25%) and Green leader James Beddome (22%).

When asked who would make the “Best Premier” of the province, a third of Manitobans (34%) select Pallister. Kinew is a distant second with 17%, followed by Lamont (10%) and Beddome (4%). A third of the province’s residents (34%) are undecided.

All four party leaders have a negative momentum score, which is calculated by assessing the proportions of residents who say their views of each leader have improved or worsened since the start of the campaign. Beddome (-2) and Lamont (-4) fare better than Kinew (-12) and Pallister (-19), 

On issues, Pallister is seen as the best leader to handle the economy and jobs (35%), government accountability (34%), energy (33%),  crime and public safety (32%), education (30%), health care (29%) and the environment (23%). 

Kinew is ahead of the incumbent premier on managing housing, homelessness and poverty (30%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from August 27 to August 29, 2019 among 586 Manitoba adults, including 498 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.4 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca