Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day

Wab Kinew has overtaken Heather Stefanson when likely voters ponder who would make the best head of government.

Vancouver, BC [October 2, 2023] – The opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) holds a significant advantage over the governing Progressive Conservative Party in Manitoba, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample of likely voters, 48% of decided voters in Manitoba would cast a ballot for the NDP candidate in their constituency or have already done so, up seven points since the previous Research Co. survey conducted in mid-September.

The Progressive Conservatives are second with 39% (=), followed by the Liberal Party with 10% (-4), the Green Party with 2% (-1) and other parties and independents with 1% (-1).

Majorities of decided voters aged 18-to-34 (52%) and aged 35-to-54 (55%) are currently supporting the NDP, as well as 55% of those who reside in Winnipeg. The Progressive Conservatives do better in the rest of Manitoba (48%) and are practically tied with the New Democrats among decided voters aged 55 and over (44% to 43%).

More than four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (87%) say they will not change their mind before participating in the democratic process tomorrow.

The approval rating for Official Opposition and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Wab Kinew stands at 51% in the final stages of the campaign (+4). The numbers are lower for Liberal Party leader Dougald Lamont (38%, +2), Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Heather Stefanson (36%, -1) and Green Party leader Janine Gibson (18%, =).

Almost two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (38%, +9) think Kinew would make the “Best Premier” of the province. Stefanson is second with 30% (=), followed by Lamont (11%, -3) and Gibson (3%, +1).

Perceptions of Stefanson have become more negative, with 38% of likely voters saying their opinion of her has worsened since the start of the campaign. This gives Stefanson a momentum score of -27, compared to -7 for Lamont, -5 for Gibson and +6 for Kinew.

Health care remains the most important issue for two-in-five likely voters in Manitoba (40%, -1), followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (20%, +3), the economy and jobs (15%, +1) and crime and public safety (13%, +1).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 30 to October 2, 2023, among 600 likely voters in Manitoba, including 557 decided voters in the 2023 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e]

Photo Credit: Ken Eckert