Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba

Health care remains the most important issue facing the province, followed by the economy and jobs.

Vancouver, BC [September 9, 2019] – The governing Progressive Conservatives are still in first place as voters in Manitoba prepare to participate in the provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of Manitobans, 44% of decided voters (-2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late August) would support the Progressive Conservative candidate in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) remains in second place with 31% (+1), followed by the Liberal Party with 16% (+2) and the Green Party with 7% (-1).

The Progressive Conservatives hold their best numbers with decided voters aged 55 and over (53%) and men (50%). The New Democrats are ahead among voters aged 18-to-34 (33%).

While the race is tied in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (34% for each of the two main contending parties), the Progressive Conservatives have a substantial lead in the rest of the province (55%, with the NDP at 28%).

“Practically four-in-five decided voters in Manitoba (79%) say they will not change their mind before casting their ballot,” says Mario Canseco, President at Research Co. “This proportion includes 84% of those who are planning to support the governing Progressive Conservatives.”

Three-in-ten Manitobans (30%, -4) believe incumbent Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister would make the best head of government for the province.

NDP and Official Opposition leader Wab Kinew is second with 19% (+2), followed by Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party with 16% (+6) and James Beddome of the Green Party with 8% (+4). More than one-in-four of the province’s residents (27%, -7) are undecided on this question.

Health care (38%, -10) remains the most important issue facing the province for Manitobans, followed by the economy and jobs (19%, +8), crime and public safety (10%, -4) and the environment (9%, +4).


Results are based on an online study conducted from September 6 to September 9, 2019 among 536 Manitoba adults, including 483 decided voters in the 2019 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Manitoba. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.2 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 4.5 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.