Politics – Page 5 – Research Co.

On Most Pressing Issues, Eby Edges Rustad in British Columbia

September 20, 2024October 6, 2024By Mario Canseco

The BC NDP leader leads on housing and health care, while the BC Conservative leader is ahead on crime and public safety.

Vancouver, BC [September 20, 2024] – As the provincial electoral campaign is about to begin, British Columbians place Premier and BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader David Eby ahead of his rivals on the management of 10 issues, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample, 37% of British Columbians think Eby is best suited to deal with health care, while 28% select Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad and 14% choose Sonia Furstenau of the BC Greens.

Eby outranks Rustad on nine other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (35% to 29%), education (35% to 22%), creating jobs (35% to 31%), transportation projects (34% to 26%), dealing with municipal governments (34% to 28%), accountability (33% to 29%), energy (32% to 27%), child care (32% to 22%) and seniors care (32% to 25%).

Furstenau is the first choice of British Columbians to manage the environment (33%, with Eby at 26% and Rustad at 20%).

Rustad is ahead of Eby on dealing with crime and public safety (35% to 31%), while the two leaders are practically tied on the economy (Eby 34%, Rustad 33%) and managing the province’s finances (Eby 33%, Rustad 31%).

“British Columbians aged 18-to-34 prefer Rustad to Eby to be in charge of the province’s finances (34% to 27%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two leaders are practically tied among those aged 35-to-54 (33% for Eby and 32% for Rustad), while those aged 55 and over select Eby over Rustad (43% to 3%).”

When it comes to character traits, at least two-in-five British Columbians think Eby is a good speaker and communicator (58%, +6 since our previous survey conducted in June), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (51%, +7), understands the problems of BC residents (47%, +6), is a strong and decisive leader (46%, +6) and is in touch with the problems British Columbians face I their daily lives (45%, +8).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians regard Rustad as having a vision for the future (47%, +13), being a good speaker and communicator (also 47%, +14%), understanding the problems of BC residents (43%, +11), being a strong and decisive leader (42%, +12), and being in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (40%, +11).

More than three-in-ten British Columbians believe Furstenau is honest and trustworthy (39%, +5), is a good speaker and communicator (38%, +5), understands the problems of BC residents (also 38%, +6), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (also 38%, +2) and is in touch with the problems British Columbians face in their daily lives (35%, +5).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from September 9 to September 11, 2024, among a representative sample of 802 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Collapse of Official Opposition Tightens Election in British Columbia

September 17, 2024October 2, 2024By Mario Canseco

Women are more likely to say David Eby would make the “Best Premier”, while Eby and John Rustad are tied among men.

Vancouver, BC [September 17, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Conservative Party of BC are statistically tied as British Columbia awaits the official start of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters say they would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their riding, while 42% would support the BC Conservatives.

Since our July 2024 survey—conducted before Official Opposition leader Kevin Falcon suspended the BC United campaign—support for the two main parties has increased: by three points for the BC New Democrats and by four points for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party is third across the province with 10% (=), while 3% of decided voters (+1) would back other parties or independent candidates.

This month, the BC NDP remains ahead among women (47%) and voters aged 55 and over (51%). The BC Conservatives lead among men (48%) and voters aged 35-to-54 (46%). The race is close among decided voters aged 18-to-34: 40% for the BC NDP and 39% for the BC Conservatives.

The BC NDP is in first place in Metro Vancouver (50%) and Vancouver Island (44%), while the BC Conservatives are ahead in the Fraser Valley (57%), Southern BC (51%) and Northern BC (42%).

“The disappearance of BC United has propelled the BC Conservatives to first place in Southern BC, where the race was exceptionally close in July,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, 16% of decided voters in Northern BC are willing to support other parties or independent candidates—the highest proportion across all five regions of British Columbia.”

The BC NDP is keeping just over three-in-four voters (76%) who supported the party under John Horgan in the last provincial election. The BC Green Party is only holding on to 43% of its voters from the 2020 ballot, with 41% of them going to the BC Conservatives and 14% going to the BC NDP.

The BC Conservatives are the choice of three-in-five voters (60%) who cast ballots for BC Liberal candidates in 2020, while 29% of them are now with the BC NDP.

For the first time since we started tracking this question in May 2023, a majority of British Columbians say they would consider casting a ballot for the BC Conservatives (52%, +7) if they nominated a candidate in their constituency. The results on this question are higher for the BC New Democrats (55%, +4) and lower for the BC Greens (40%, +4).

Just over half of British Columbians (51%, +3) approve of the performance of Premier and BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader David Eby. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (48%, +9) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (41%, +6).

More than a third of British Columbians (36%) think Eby would make the Best Premier among the three party leaders, while 27% select Rustad and 12% pick Furstenau. One-in-four respondents (25%) are undecided on this question.

Among men, Eby and Rustad are tied on the “Best Premier” question (34% each), while Eby holds a substantial edge over Rustad among women (38% to 21%).

There has been little change on the issue landscape over the past two months. More than two-in-five British Columbians (41%, -1) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most prevalent concern facing the province, followed by health care (21%, =), the economy and jobs (14%, =), crime and public safety (6%, +1) and the environment (4%, -2).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Would Welcome New Oversight in Nomination Races

September 11, 2024September 10, 2024By Mario Canseco

Seven-in-ten would place the contests under the purview of Elections Canada and more than half support holding primaries.

Vancouver, BC [September 11, 2024] – As the activities of the Foreign Interference Commission continue, many Canadians express support for new guidelines to govern federal nomination races, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions has raised questions about foreign interference affecting federal nomination races.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, seven-in-ten Canadians (70%) think it would be a “very good” or “good” idea to place all federal nomination races under the jurisdiction of Elections Canada.

“The notion of Elections Canada overseeing federal nomination contests is very popular among supporters of all three major parties,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Sizeable majorities of those who voted for the Liberal Party (77%), the Conservative Party (72%) or the New Democratic Party (NDP) (71%) in the 2021 federal election regard this as a positive move.”

More than half of Canadians (53%) are in favour of holding open primary elections in contested federal nominations, like they do in the United States.

Support for holding this type of open primaries is highest in British Columbia (60%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 60%), followed by Ontario (57%), Alberta (55%), Quebec (52%) and Atlantic Canada (48%).

More than two-in-five Canadians (45%) are following the Foreign Interference Commission “very closely” or “moderately closely”.

Compared to a Research Co. survey conducted in February 2023—before the Foreign Interference Commission was called—there is an increase in the proportion of Canadians who think China is “very likely” or “moderately likely” to have attempted to influence electoral processes in Canada in this century, from 60% last year to 66% in 2024.

Fewer Canadians feel the United States (63%, +2), Russia (57%, +1), India (42%) and Pakistan (33%) have attempted to influence Canada’s electoral processes.

There is a noticeable jump when Canadians are asked about the type of electoral processes that have been successfully influenced by foreign governments in this century.

Almost two thirds of Canadians (64%, +6) think there has been “definite” or “probable” foreign influence on federal elections, and more than half (55%, +6) feel the same way about federal nomination contests.

This year, Canadians are also more likely to think that four other types of democratic contests have been tainted by foreign actors: provincial elections (49%, +7), provincial nomination contests (39%, +4), municipal elections (40%, +7) and municipal nomination contests (34%, +5).

More than seven-in-ten Canadians (73%, +1) are in favour of Canada introducing laws against foreign interference similar to the ones currently in place in Australia, which criminalize covert and deceptive or threatening activities.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on August 19 to August 21, 2024, among 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Mulroney Gains, Justin Trudeau Sinks as Canadians Rate PMs

September 4, 2024September 3, 2024By Mario Canseco

Canada’s 18th Prime Minister improves his standing, while the negative rating increases for the current head of government.

Vancouver, BC [September 4, 2024] – About one-in-six Canadians deem Brian Mulroney as the best Prime Minister the country has had since 1968, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 15% of Canadians pick Mulroney from a list of nine current and former heads of government, up seven points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in July 2023.

Two former prime ministers are ahead of Mulroney on this question: Pierre Trudeau (18%, -2) and Stephen Harper (16%, -1). The rating is lower for Justin Trudeau (10%, -2), Jean Chrétien (9%, -2), Kim Campbell (3%, +2), Paul Martin (2%, -1), Joe Clark (2%, =) and John Turner (1%, -1).

Among men, Harper has a four-point edge over Pierre Trudeau (21% to 17%) as the best recent prime minister. Women put Pierre Trudeau in first place (18%) with Mulroney four points behind (14%).

“Practically one-in-four Quebecers (24%) think Mulroney is the best recent Canadian prime minister,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In Ontario, Harper and Pierre Trudeau are tied for first place with 19% each.”

Almost two-in-five Canadians (38%, +8) think Justin Trudeau is the worst recent prime minister. Harper is a distant second with 14% (-4), followed by Pierre Trudeau (7%, +2), Campbell (6%, -1), Mulroney (3%, -3), Chrétien (3%, =), Clark (3%, =), Martin (2%, =) and Turner (2%, +1).

Majorities of residents of Alberta (55%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (52%) believe Justin Trudeau has been the worst recent Canadian head of government. The proportions are lower in Atlantic Canada (39%), British Columbia (also 39%), Ontario (37%) and Quebec (28%).

The survey also asked questions about 10 different people who served as leaders of the Official Opposition in Ottawa over the past five decades.

Fewer than three-in-ten Canadians believe five of these politicians would have made “very good” or “good” prime ministers: Michael Ignatieff (22%, +3), Stéphane Dion (24%, +6), Stockwell Day (26%, +7), Andrew Scheer (27%, +5) and Rona Ambrose (also 27%, +9).

The rating is slightly higher for four other former leaders of the Official Opposition: Erin O’Toole (31%, +9). Robert Stanfield (33%, +6), Preston Manning (also 33%, +5) and Tom Mulcair (34%, +7).

As has been the case in previous years, the best rated politician on this question is Jack Layton, with 52% of Canadians (+2) believing he would have made a “very good” or “good” prime minister.

Two thirds of Canadians who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the 2021 federal election (66%) think Layton would have made a very good” or “good” head of government, along with 68% of those who voted for the Liberal Party and 45% of those who voted for the Conservative Party.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Photo Credit: Bob McNeely

Photograph of President William Jefferson Clinton, Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney walking outside the University of British Columbia President’s residence in Vancouver, British Columbia Canada.

Half of Canadians Endorse UK-Style Mandatory National Service

August 28, 2024August 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Fewer than one-in-five of the country’s residents think provincial legislatures should begin their sessions with a Christian prayer.

Vancouver, BC [August 28, 2024] – A sizeable proportion of Canadians would welcome a proposal to create a mandatory national service for all 18-year-old residents of the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.

Earlier this year, the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom suggested bringing back mandatory national service. The proposal called for all 18-year-old residents of the United Kingdom to either take a full-time military placement for one year, or to volunteer one weekend a month performing community service for one year.

Half of Canadians (50%) support implementing a similar mandatory national service for all 18-year-old residents of Canada, while 41% disagree and 8% are not sure.

“More than half of Canadians aged 18-to-34 (55%) would like to see a form of mandatory national service in the country,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (47%) and aged 55 and over (48%).”

The notion of having a mandatory national service in Canada is more popular in Ontario (60%), British Columbia (58%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54%). Fewer than half of residents of Atlantic Canada (46%), Alberta (44%) and Quebec (42%) concur.

The perceptions of Canadians change when asked about the return of conscription, or the compulsory enlistment of young adults for full-time military service.

In Canada, conscription has not been practiced since the end of the Second World War in 1945. Some European and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries—including Norway, Sweden and Latvia—have recently reintroduced conscription.

Just over two-in-five Canadians (41%) are in favour of reintroducing conscription for adults of both genders aged 18-to-27 in Canada, while 50% are opposed.

Similar proportions of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party (44%), the Conservative Party (43%) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) (40%) in the 2021 federal election support the implementation of conscription for Canadians aged 18-to-27, regardless of their gender.

Public backing for the return of conscription is lower if a directive called for its implementation exclusively for men (31%) or women (25%).

In the United States, the “Pledge of Allegiance” is recited during Congressional sessions and other government meetings. Just over half of Canadians (52%) think Canada should implement a similar directive, where lawmakers and government workers state their allegiance to the country.

The creation of a “Canadian pledge” is more popular among men (55%), Canadians aged 18-to-34 (56%), Ontarians (57%) and Albertans (55%).

In Canada, some provincial legislatures begin their sessions with moments of silent reflection, non-denominational prayers, and/or Christian prayers.

Just under two-in-five Canadians (39%) would prefer to start legislative sessions in their province with a moment of silent reflection, while fewer select a Christian prayer (19%) or a non-denominational prayer (13%).

More than one-in-five Canadians (22%) believe provincial legislatures should not start sessions with moments of reflection or prayers—a proportion that reaches 28% in British Columbia and 27% in Quebec.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 24 to July 26, 2024, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Politically, Most Canadians See Themselves at or Near Centre

August 23, 2024August 23, 2024By Mario Canseco

While 44% regard the Conservatives as “right” or “extreme right”, 33% say the Liberals as “left” or “extreme left”.

Vancouver, BC [August 23, 2024] – Few Canadians look at their own political views as extreme, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, fewer than one-in-twenty Canadians place themselves in the political spectrum as extreme right (4%) or extreme left (3%).

Fewer than one-in-ten Canadians brand themselves politically as right (9%) or left (also 9%). The bulk of responses from Canadians appear in three categories: centre (33%), centre left (15%) and centre right (14%).

“Almost two-in-five Canadians aged 55 and over (39%) say their political views are at the centre,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (34%) and aged 18-to-34 (27%).”

Just under a third of Canadians aged 18-to-34 (31%) describe themselves as extreme right, right or centre right. Fewer than three-in-ten Canadians aged 35-to-54 (27%) and aged 55 and over (23%) rely on any of the same three categories.

Similar proportions of Canadians aged 18-to-34 (28%), aged 35-to-54 (27%) and aged 55 and over (also 27%) say they are centre left, left or extreme left.

When asked to place the six main federal political parties on the spectrum, more than two-in-five Canadians (44%) say the Conservative Party is extreme right or right.

One third of Canadians (33%) place the Liberal Party as extreme left or left, and a slightly higher proportion (36%) feel the same way about the New Democratic Party (NDP). The Green Party is regarded as extreme left or left by 29% of Canadians.

About a third of Canadians (32%) are undecided when asked to place both the Bloc Québécois and the People’s Party on the political spectrum. Respondents were more likely to brand each of the two parties as extreme right or right (18% for the Bloc Québécois and 26% for the People’s Party) than as extreme left or left (15% and 10% respectively).

A separate question asked Canadians to place the six main federal party leaders on the political spectrum. More than a third (35%) regard People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier as extreme right, right or centre right, while fewer (28%) use the same categories for Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet.

Elizabeth May of the Green Party and Jagmeet Singh of the NDP are regarded as centre left, left or extreme left by 40% and 41% of Canadians respectively.

Half of Canadians (50%) describe Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party as centre left, left or extreme left, while a larger proportion (55%) brands Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party as extreme right, right or centre right.

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 12 to August 14, 2024, among 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Solidly Ahead in Canada’s Federal Political Scene

August 20, 2024August 19, 2024By Mario Canseco

More than half of Canadians are dissatisfied with what the Liberals and the NDP have accomplished since their March 2022 deal.

Vancouver, BC [August 20, 2024] – The Conservative Party holds a significant advantage as Canadians ponder their options in a federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 40% of decided voters in Canada would vote for the Conservative candidate in their constituency if an election took place tomorrow, up two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2024.

The governing Liberal Party is in second place with 25% (-1), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17% (-3), the Bloc Québécois with 9% (-1), the Green Party with 6% (+3) and the People’s Party with 2% (+1).

The Conservatives are the top choice for decided voters in Alberta (55%, -5), Atlantic Canada (51%, +7), British Columbia (50%, +4), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (40%, -8) and Ontario (39%, -1). In Quebec, the Bloc remains on top (33%, -1), with the Liberals in second place (28%, =).

More than half of Canadians (54%, +5) are dissatisfied with what the Liberals and the NDP have accomplished since their March 2022 supply and confidence agreement, while 39% (-4) are satisfied.

“In October 2022, Canadians were equally split in their assessment of the Liberal-NDP deal in Ottawa,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost two years later, most are unhappy with what has been achieved so far.”

Almost a third of Canadians (32%, +5) identify housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the country at this moment, followed by the economy and jobs (25%, +1), health care (15%, =), immigration (10%, +2) and the environment (6%, -2).

For the first time in six surveys conducted since October 2022, more than half of Canadians (52%, +5) approve of the way Official Opposition and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is handling his duties.

The approval ratings are lower this month for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (42%, -6), Green leader Elizabeth May (35%, +2), Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (34%, -5), People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (26%, +4) and Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, =).

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Poilievre’s standing increased from 32% in April to 37% this month, while Trudeau dropped from 26% to 22%. Singh is in third place with 14% (-3).

Just over a third of Canadians (34%, -4) say they are comfortable with Trudeau being in charge of Canada’s economy. More than half (54%, +5) say they would be comfortable if Poilievre were in charge.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Grow Weary When Assessing Their Financial Situation

August 14, 2024August 14, 2024By Mario Canseco

More than two-in-five Canadians (42%) have worried “frequently” or “occasionally” about being able to pay their mortgage or rent.

Vancouver, BC [August 14, 2024] – More than half of Canadians are dissatisfied with the current state of their finances, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 51% of Canadians rate their own personal finances as “poor” or “very poor”, up nine points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in January 2024.

Only 46% of Canadians (-9) say their own personal finances are “very good” or “good” at the moment.

“More than three-in-five Albertans (61%) are dissatisfied with their current financial situation,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Majorities of British Columbians (52%), Ontarians (51%), Quebecers (also 51%) and Atlantic Canadians (also 51%) feel the same way.”

Almost two thirds of Canadians (64%, +3) rate the economic conditions in Canada today as “bad” or “very bad”, while about a third (32%, -3) consider them “very good” or “good.”

Just over a third of Canadians (34%, -3) believe Canada’s financial standing will decline over the next six months. Only 15% (+1) foresee a recovery, while 43% (+2) expect no changes.

Majorities of Canadians have worried “frequently” or “occasionally” in the past couple of months about two issues: the value of their investments (52%, +6) and the safety of their savings (51%, +4).

Compared to January, there are also increases on three other concerns for Canadians: being able to pay mortgage or rent (42%, +8), unemployment affecting their household (also 42%, +8) and their employer running into serious financial trouble (33%, +5).

Canadians are also more worried about inflation, with majorities expecting to pay more for gasoline (77%, +12), a week’s worth of groceries (76%, +2), a new car (68%, +5) real estate (65%, +14) and a new television set (53%, +6) in the next six months.

On the political front, more than a third of Canadians (36%, -2) trust Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to do the right thing to help the economy. The rating is similar for Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem (35%, +1) and higher for federal leader of the opposition Pierre Poilievre (41%, -2).

Poilievre’s numbers on the economic confidence question are highest in Alberta (54%), followed by Ontario (45%), British Columbia (37%) and Quebec (31%).

Trudeau does best in Quebec (44%), but his rating is lower in British Columbia (36%), Ontario (35%) and Alberta (22%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from August 5 to August 7, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Appetite for Abortion Debate Hits Lowest Point in Canada

August 9, 2024August 6, 2024By Mario Canseco

Fewer than one-in-four Canadians think the discussion about abortion should be re-opened.

Vancouver, BC [August 9, 2024] – Most Canadians remain skeptical about reigniting a debate on abortion in the country, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, almost three-in-five Canadians (58%) believe there is no point in re-opening a debate about abortion in Canada right now, up five points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2022.

Fewer than one-in-four Canadians (23%, -3) think a debate about abortion is long overdue in Canada and the discussion should be re-opened, while 20% (-1) are not sure.

“In July 2019, more than a third of Canadians (37%) were ready to have a debate over abortion,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion has fallen by 14 points since then.”

Majorities of Canadians who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (68%), the Liberal Party (63%) and the Conservative Party (58%) in the 2021 federal election believe there is no point in re-opening a debate about abortion in Canada right now.

Almost half of Canadians (46%, +2) think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, while just over a third (35%, -2) would allow the procedure only under certain circumstances. Fewer than one-in-ten Canadians (7%, -3) believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances.

Women are more likely to favour the legality of abortion in all circumstances (49%) than men (44%).

In Canada, abortions are provided on request to Canadian citizens and permanent residents, and are funded by the health care system.

Almost half of Canadians (46%) think the health care system should fund abortions whenever they are requested, while more than a third (36%) believe the health care system should only fund abortions in the event of medical emergencies. Only 7% of Canadians think the health care system should not fund abortions at all.

Majorities of Quebecers (52%) and British Columbians (51%) support the health care system funding abortions whenever they are requested. The proportions are lower in Atlantic Canada (44%), Ontario (42%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (40%) and Alberta (38%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Mail Vote, Crucial in 2020, Shunned by British Columbians in 2024

August 2, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most of the province’s residents say they will cast their ballots on Election Day in October, up significantly from four years ago.

Vancouver, BC [August 2, 2024] – Few British Columbians are thinking of relying on mail-in ballots to vote in this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample asked British Columbians how they voted in the 2020 democratic process—which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic—and how they intend to vote in 2024.

More than half of British Columbians (52%) say they plan to cast their ballot in person on Election Day (October 19). Fewer than one third of the province’s residents (28%) voted this way in 2020.

Just over one-in-five British Columbians (21%) intend to vote in person during Advance Voting, down from 32% who chose this method four years ago.

Fewer than one-in-ten British Columbians (8%) will request a mail-in ballot in 2024, down from 28% who voted this way in the last provincial election.

Once the provincial campaign begins, more than seven-in-ten British Columbians (72%) say they will “definitely” or “probably” watch, listen or read news about the campaign in the media.

More than three-in-five British Columbians also intend to read the platforms and policy positions of political parties on their websites (68%) and review the background of candidates who are running in their constituency (65%).

Fewer British Columbias plan to attend (or watch) a debate featuring the main party leaders (52%), attend (or watch) a debate featuring candidates from their constituency (48%) or meet candidates who knock on their door (29%).

“More than a third of British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (35%) will meet candidates who knock on their door during the campaign,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportions are lower among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (29%) and aged 55 and over (25%).”

When asked which feelings they have about this year’s provincial election, more than three-in-ten British Columbians (31%) mention “indifference” while one-in-four (25%) say the ballot elicits “enthusiasm”.

Other words used by British Columbians to describe this year’s provincial democratic process are “trust” (18%), “fear” (15%), “pride” (11%), “anger” (also 11%), “joy” (10%), “sadness” (8%), “disgust” (7%) and “shame” (5%).

Voters in British Columbia who are currently supporting the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) mention four specific emotions: “enthusiasm” (32%), “indifference” (29%), “trust” (26%) and “fear” (13%).

Those who plan to vote for the Conservative Party of BC rely on the same emotions, but at different levels: “enthusiasm” (33%), “indifference” (25%), “fear” (22%) and “trust” (17%).

Supporters of the BC Green Party put “indifference” at the top of their list (37%), followed by “enthusiasm” (20%), “fear” (19%) and “anger” (19%).

The top four emotions for British Columbians who plan to vote for BC United are “enthusiasm” (28%), “indifference” (27%), “trust” (19%) and “joy” (18%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from July 23 to July 25, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

BC Conservatives Rise, Governing BC NDP First in British Columbia

July 30, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Southern BC emerges as a key battleground in this year’s provincial election, with the two main parties virtually tied.

Vancouver, BC [July 30, 2024] – Public support for the Conservative Party of BC increased markedly in the past month, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 41% of decided voters (+1 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in June 2024) would support the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency if the election were held today, while 38% (+5) would cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives.

The BC Green Party remains in third place with 10% (-5), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 9% (-2). Other parties and independent candidates have the support of 2% of decided voters (=).

The BC NDP is ahead of the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (44% to 35%) and Vancouver Island (43% to 32%), while the BC Conservatives lead the BC NDP in Northern BC (57% to 31%) and the Fraser Valley (47% to 28%).

“The race has tightened considerably in Southern BC, where the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives are virtually tied (40% to 38%)” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In June, the BC New Democrats were 11 points ahead of the BC Conservatives in this region of British Columbia (44% to 33%).”

The BC NDP remains popular among women (47%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (42%) and aged 55 and over (49%). The BC Conservatives are first among men (41%) and decided voters aged 18-to-34 (45%).

Fewer than half of British Columbians (48%, -5) approve of the way Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby has handled his duties. The rating is lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (39%, -1), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -4), and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (29%, -3).

There is a significant gender gap in the rating of one of the two main party leaders. Half of women in British Columbia (50%) approve of Eby, but just 32% feel the same way about Rustad. Among men, the two leaders post practically the same numbers (Eby 46%, Rustad 47%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would consider voting for the BC New Democrats (51%, -3) or the BC Conservatives (45%, -1) if they ran a candidate in their riding. The proportions are lower for the BC Greens (36%, -2) and BC United (32%, -2).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is still the most important issue facing the province for British Columbians (42%, +2), followed by health care (21%, +1), the economy and jobs (14%, -3), the environment (6%, +1) and crime and public safety (5%, -3).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Question Effect of Proposed Sexual Education Policies

July 12, 2024July 11, 2024By Mario Canseco

Support for “SOGI-Inclusive Education” is strong among all Canadians and parents or guardians of children aged 0-to-18.

Vancouver, BC [July 12, 2024] – Practically half of Canadians endorse the use of “SOGI-Inclusive Education” in their province’s classrooms, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 48% of Canadians support this type of sexual education in schools. Just over three-in-ten Canadians (31%) are opposed to it, and 21% are undecided.

“SOGI-Inclusive Education” raises awareness of and welcomes students of all sexual orientations, gender identities and family structures. More than half of Canadian parents or guardians of children aged 0-to-18 (52%) support “SOGI-Inclusive Education”, while a third (33%) are opposed and 15% are not sure.

On average, Canadians think children should begin to learn about sexuality at the age of 12 and a half (12.51 years).

Canadians of European descent believe sexual education should start earlier (11.83 years) than their counterparts whose origins are Indigenous (12.47 years), East Asian (12.53 years) and South Asian (14.58 years).

On this question, the differences are slight in the average age provided by Canadians who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) (12.03 years), the Liberal Party (12.24 years) and the Conservative Party (12.74 years) in the 2020 federal election.

Respondents were asked to weigh in on eight different policies that were introduced this year by the Government of Alberta. At least three-in-five Canadians agree with three of these ideas: banning top and bottom surgeries for minors aged 17 and under (66%, and 70% among parents), banning hormone therapies for gender affirmation and puberty blockers for minors aged 15 and under (61%, and 67% among parents) and compelling schools to advise parents and obtain their consent if a minor aged 15 and under wishes to alter their name or pronouns (60%, and 61% among parents).

Most Canadians and parents also voice agreement with three other policies: compelling schools to advise parents if a minor aged 16 or 17 wishes to alter their name or pronouns (59%, and 62% among parents), ensuring that parents “opt-in” any minors every time topics such as gender identity, sexual orientation or sexuality are discussed in the classroom (55%, and 61% among parents) and banning transgender women from taking part in women’s sports leagues competitions (54%, and 58% among parents).

Agreement is lower for two other policies: the provincial education ministry approving all third-party teaching materials on gender identity, sexual orientation or sexuality that are used in the classroom. (48%, and 50% among parents) and allowing minors aged 16 and 17 to start hormone therapies for gender affirmation if they have the approval of their parents, a physician and a psychologist (45%, and 44% among parents).

Canadians are not convinced that the outcome of these policies will be universally positive. Just under half think it is likely that parents will be in full control of the way their children learn about sexuality (48%) and that gender-diverse youth will be placed at risk (also 48%).

More than a third of Canadians also foresee medical practitioners (such as doctors and psychologists) being unable to assess the ethical and medical implications of individual cases (43%), gender-diverse youth being unable to seek support from teachers or school staff (also 43%), an increase in sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) (40%) and an increase in teenage pregnancies (35%).

“Canadian parents are more likely to predict a negative outcome from some of Alberta’s proposed sexual education policies,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than half (51%) think their implementation will place gender-diverse youth at risk.”

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 8 to June 10, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Eby is Ahead of Rivals on Character Traits in British Columbia

June 28, 2024July 4, 2024By Mario Canseco

Most of province’s residents place themselves at or near the centre of the political spectrum.

Vancouver, BC [June 28, 2024] – British Columbians hold contrasting views on the political leanings of the four party leaders contesting this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians also asked about characteristics that people may find in politicians.

At least two-in-five British Columbians say Premier and BC New Democratic Party (NDP) leader David Eby is a good speaker and communicator (52%), has a vision for the future of British Columbia (44%), understands the problems of BC residents (41%), is a strong and decisive leader (40%) and is honest and trustworthy (also 40%).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians regard Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad as having a vision for the future (34%), being a good speaker and communicator (33%), understanding the problems of BC residents (32%) and being a strong and decisive leader (30%).

More than three-in-ten British Columbians think BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau has a vision for the province (36%), is honest and trustworthy (34%), is a good speaker and communicator (33%), understands the problems of BC residents (32%) and generally agrees with people on the issues they care about (31%).

At least three-in-ten British Columbians believe BC United leader Kevin Falcon is a good speaker and communicator (36%), is a strong and decisive leader (34%), understands the problems of BC residents (30%) and is patronizing (also 30%).

On the political spectrum, one third of British Columbians (33%) describe themselves as centre, while 16% say they are centre right and a further 16% place themselves as centre left.

The BC NDP is regarded as centre left, left or extreme left by 51% of British Columbians. More than two-in-five of the province’s residents (43%) place the Green Party in these same three categories.

The Conservative Party of BC is seen as centre right, right or extreme right by 61% of British Columbians, BC United is placed in these same three categories by 36% of British Columbians.

The answers to this question do not vary greatly for the leaders. Almost half of British Columbians (48%) perceive Eby as centre left, left or extreme left, and 41% feel the same way about Furstenau.

Almost three-in-five British Columbians (58%) brand Rustad as centre right, right or extreme right, compared to 37% for Falcon.

“Only one-in-ten British Columbians think Eby (10%) is extreme left,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Almost one-in-five (19%) believe Rustad is extreme right.”

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from June 17 to June 19, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

BC NDP Lead Narrows as British Columbians Ponder Choices

June 25, 2024July 27, 2024By Mario Canseco

Voter consideration for the Conservatives and the Greens rose since May, along with the approval ratings for their leaders.

Vancouver, BC [June 25, 2024] – The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of the Conservative Party of BC as British Columbians consider their options in this year’s provincial election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 40% of decided voters (-2 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May 2024) would cast a ballot for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding if the election were held today, while 33% (+1) would support the Conservative Party of BC.

The BC Green Party is third with 15% (+3), followed by BC United—currently the Official Opposition in the Legislative Assembly—with 11% (-1). Other parties and independent candidates are backed by 2% of decided voters (=).

“The BC NDP remains ahead of all challengers in Metro Vancouver (41%), Vancouver Island (43%) and Southern BC (44%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The BC Conservatives lead in the Fraser Valley (40%) and Northern BC (53%).”

Two parties gained momentum in the voter consideration question: the BC Conservatives (46%, +4) and the BC Greens (38%, +3). The proportion of British Columbians who would consider supporting the BC NDP remains higher (54%, -1) while just over a third (34%, +1) feel the same way about BC United.

Housing, homelessness and poverty remains the most important issue for 40% of British Columbians (=). Health care is second on the list of pressing concerns with 20% (-1), followed by the economy and jobs (17%, +2), crime and public safety (8%, +3) and the environment (5%, =).

BC United’s Kevin Falcon continues to have the lowest approval rating among the four major party leaders (32%, +1). The proportions are higher for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (39%, +4), BC Conservative leader John Rustad (40%, +3) and Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby (53%, -1).

Eby is also ahead on the “Best Premier” question (28%), followed by Rustad (14%), Falcon (13%) and Furstenau (11%). While more than half of BC NDP voters in the 2020 provincial ballot (54%) choose Eby, only 28% of those who voted for the BC Liberals in the same election select Falcon.

When asked which leader would be best suited to manage specific issues, Eby has significant leads on health care (30%), education (28%), the economy and jobs (26%), child care (also 26%), housing, homelessness and poverty (also 26%), accountability (25%), transportation projects (24%), managing the province’s finances (also 24%), crime and public safety (23%), energy (also 23%), creating jobs (also 23%) and seniors care (22%).

On the environment, Eby and Furstenau are tied with 23% each. Rustad posts his best numbers on crime and public safety (18%) and the economy and jobs (17%).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Canadians Regard Biden as Superior to Trump in White House

May 29, 2024May 29, 2024By Mario Canseco

More than a quarter of Canadians think Donald Trump was the real winner of the 2020 United States presidential election.

Vancouver, BC [May 29, 2024] – Almost half of Canadians hold positive views on the tenure of the current American president, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 48% of Canadians say having Joe Biden as President of the United States since January 2021 has been “very good” or “good” for Canada, while three-in-ten (30%) think the current White House dweller has been “bad” or “very bad”.

More than half of Quebecers (57%) and British Columbians (52%) hold positive views on Biden’s time in the White House. The proportions are lower in Atlantic Canada (49%), Ontario (45%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (44%) and Alberta (32%).

Just under three-in-five Canadians (59%) think having Donald Trump as President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021 was “bad” or “very bad” for Canada, while 29% believe Trump was “very good” or “good”.

A third of residents of Alberta (33%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (also 33%) have a positive view of Trump’s term as president. Trump’s rating is lower in Atlantic Canada (30%), Ontario (29%), British Columbia (28%) and Quebec (25%).

“In August 2020, more than seven-in-ten Canadians (73%) regarded Trump’s presidency as detrimental to Canada,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion has dropped by 14 points in just under four years.”

As was the case four years ago, Canadians are divided when asked about the behaviour of elected officials, with 46% (+3) wanting Canadian politicians to speak their mind if they are concerned about the U.S. presidential election, and 46% (=) wanting them to stay neutral and avoid public statements during the American campaign.

Canadians also have contrasting views on whether the country should have a system similar to the American one, where voters can cast a ballot for presidential candidates. Across Canada, 42% of respondents agree with this idea, while 44% disagree and 14% are undecided.

While only 37% of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party in the 2021 federal election would welcome a “presidential system” in Canada, the proportion rises slightly to 40% among those who backed the New Democratic Party (NDP) and jumps to 56% among those who cast ballots for Conservative Party candidates.

Almost two thirds of Canadians (65%) say it matters to them who wins this year’s presidential election in the United States. Canadians aged 55 and over are more likely to feel this way (74%) than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (63%) and aged 18-to-34 (57%)

Three-in-ten Canadians (30%) say they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr. in the 2024 presidential election if they lived in the United States. Support for the independent presidential candidate on this question is highest in Ontario (36%) and lowest in Alberta (14%).

More than a quarter of Canadians (27%) say Donald Trump was the real winner of the 2020 United States presidential election. More than three-in-ten British Columbians (31%), Canadians aged 18-to-34 (36%) and Conservative voters in the last federal election (39%) express this point of view.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from May 20 to May 22, 2024, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

A New Leader Would Not Make BC United More Competitive

May 24, 2024May 20, 2024By Mario Canseco

British Columbians react well to Christy Clark and Dianne Watts, but the party would still trail the NDP and the Conservatives.

Vancouver, BC [May 24, 2024] – The re-emergence of two well-known politicians would slightly help BC United in an election year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative provincial sample asked British Columbians how they would vote in an election with 14 different options leading BC United.

Christy Clark and Dianne Watts post the best numbers, attracting 18% of decided voters to BC United—a six-point increase from the current standing of the party under Kevin Falcon.

Clark, who served as Premier and BC Liberal leader from 2011 to 2017, would still position BC United in third place, behind the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (35%) and the Conservative Party of BC (26%).

Under Watts, a former Mayor of Surrey and former Member of Parliament for the Conservative Party who finished second in the 2018 BC Liberal leadership race, BC United also trails the BC New Democrats (36%) and the BC Conservatives (24%).

“Just under one-in-five British Columbians who are willing to vote for the BC Conservatives (17%) would back BC United with Dianne Watts as leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Watts would put BC United in second place, behind the BC NDP, among decided voters aged 55 and over (43% to 24%).”

Two other candidates are ahead of Falcon’s current numbers: Vancouver-Langara MLA Michael Lee, who finished third in the BC Liberal leadership races of 2018 and 2022 (14%) and Gavin Dew, who finished fifth in the 2022 BC Liberal leadership election (13%).

Three candidates who sought the leadership of the BC Liberals would have the same level of support commanding BC United that Falcon currently has (12%): sixth place leadership finisher in 2022 Renee Merrifield, fourth place finisher in 2011 Mike de Jong and sixth place finisher in 2018 Sam Sullivan.

Support from decided voters would be lower for BC United under seven other candidates: second place leadership finisher in 2022 Ellis Ross (11%), current Mayor of Vancouver Ken Sim (also 11%), former BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson (also 11%), fourth place finisher in 2018 Todd Stone (10%), seventh place finisher in 2022 Stan Sipos (also 10%), fifth place finisher in 2022 Val Litwin (9%) and Aaron Gunn, who was disqualified from participating in the 2022 BC Liberal leadership race (also 9%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from May 13 to May 15, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

NDP First, Conservatives Rise, United Plummets in British Columbia

May 21, 2024May 20, 2024By Mario Canseco

Just over a third of British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals in 2020 are staying with BC United in 2024.

Vancouver, BC [May 21, 2024] – Five months before voters in British Columbia take part in a provincial election, the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) remains ahead of the opposition Conservative Party of BC, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 42% of decided voters (-3 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in April 2024) would support the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, while 32% (+5) would cast a ballot for the BC Conservatives.

BC United—currently the official opposition in the Legislative Assembly—is tied for third place with the BC Green Party (each with 12%). Support for BC United has dropped by three points in a month, while the BC Greens have gained one point. Other parties and independent candidates are supported by 2% of decided voters (+1).

“In May 2023, a third of decided voters in British Columbia (33%) were supporting BC United,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “A year later, the proportion has fallen by 21 points.”

Only 35% of decided voters who supported the BC Liberals in the 2020 provincial election under leader Andrew Wilkinson are staying with BC United in 2024. More than two-in-five (44%) are now backing the BC Conservatives, while more than one-in-ten (12%) would cast a ballot for the BC NDP.

The BC New Democrats hold leads over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (40% to 30%) and Vancouver Island (49% to 29%). The races are closer in the Fraser Valley (NDP 40%, Conservatives 39%), Southern BC (NDP 39%, Conservatives 37%) and Northern BC (Conservatives 40%, NDP 38%).

Across the province, the BC Conservatives are ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39% to 34%). The BC New Democrats lead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (38% to 33%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (50% to 26%).

More than two-in-five British Columbians say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the BC New Democrats (53%. -1) or the BC Conservatives (42%, +1) in the provincial election. The proportions are lower for the BC Greens (35%, -2) and BC United (33%, -4).

Two-in-five British Columbians (40%, +3) say housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province, followed by health care (21%, =), the economy and jobs (15%, -3), the environment (5%, -1) and crime and public safety (also 5%, =).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 54% this month (+3). The numbers are lower for BC Conservative leader John Rustad (37%, +2), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -2) and BC United leader Kevin Falcon (31%, -5).

The notion of BC United and the Conservative Party of BC merging into a single party before the next provincial election is backed by 33% of British Columbians (-6). Fewer than half of decided voters currently supporting the BC Conservatives (49%, -5) or BC United (47%, -6) are on board.

Rustad is regarded as a better leader than Falcon to attract male voters (29% to 17%), voters aged 35-to-54 (25% to 22%), voters aged 55 and over (34% to 17%), voters in the Fraser Valley (27% to 19%), voters in Southern BC (23% to 20%), voters in Northern BC (30% to15%) and voters in Vancouver Island (24% to 17%) to his party.

The BC Conservative leader is also regarded as having a better chance to serve as opposition leader after the next provincial election (26% to 23%) or form the government (24% to 19%) than Falcon.

Falcon is ahead of Rustad on attracting female voters (21% to 17%) and voters in Metro Vancouver (24% to 21%) to BC United. The two leaders are tied (at 20% each) on attracting voters aged 18-to-34 to their respective parties.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

BC New Democrats Remain Ahead of Rivals in British Columbia

April 23, 2024April 25, 2024By Mario Canseco

The Conservative Party of BC holds the upper hand against BC United and the BC Green Party among decided voters.

Vancouver, BC [April 23, 2024] – More than two-in-five decided voters would cast a ballot for the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) if British Columbia’s provincial election were held today, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 45% of decided voters would back the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, down one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in January 2024.

The Conservative Party of BC Is in second place with 27% (+2), followed by BC United with 15% (-2) and the BC Green Party with 11% (=), while 1% of decided voters (-1) would support other parties or independent candidates.

The BC NDP is solidly ahead of the BC Conservatives in Vancouver Island (56%) and Metro Vancouver (47%). The races are tighter in the Fraser Valley (37% to 36%), Southern BC (35% to 32%) and Northern BC (38% to 33%).

The BC NDP is still the first choice across all three age groups in British Columbia. The BC Conservatives are more popular among voters aged 18-to-34 (34%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (29%) and aged 55 and over (22%).

Just over half of British Columbians (51%, -2) approve of the way David Eby has handled his duties as Premier and BC NDP leader. Fewer than two-in-five feel the same way about BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (37%, +3), BC United leader Kevin Falcon (36%, +5) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (35%, +3).

Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the province for 37% of British Columbians (-2). Health care is second on the list of concerns with 21% (-1), followed by the economy and jobs (18%, +1), the environment (6%, +2) and crime and public safety (5%, =).

“A third of British Columbians aged 55 and over (34%) think health care is the most pressing issue right now,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Those aged 18-to-34 and aged 35-to-54 are primarily concerned about housing, homelessness and poverty (42% and 40% respectively).”

Compared to January, there is no movement in the voting consideration question for the BC Conservatives, with 41% of British Columbians (=) saying they would “definitely” or “probably” consider casting a ballot for their candidates. The rating is lower for both the BC Greens (37%, +3) and BC United (also 37%, +4), and higher for the BC NDP (54%, =).

Almost half of British Columbians (48%) agree that all political parties should establish quotas to increase the number of female candidates in the provincial election. A smaller proportion (44%) would like to see quotas to increase the number of candidates from visible minorities.

More than three-in-five British Columbians (63%) believe that, when politicians show up to festivals and celebrations (such as Vaisakhi) they are just pandering for votes and not truly interested in engaging with people from different cultures and backgrounds.

Almost two thirds of British Columbians (65%) think it should be mandatory for candidates to attend at least one public debate in their constituency with the candidates from other parties—a proportion that rises to 72% among residents of Northern BC.

Just over half of British Columbians (51%) think all political parties should compel candidates to step down if they said something offensive on social media. This course of action is favoured the most by residents of Southern BC (58%), followed by those who live in Metro Vancouver (52%), the Fraser Valley (49%), Vancouver Island (also 49%) and Northern BC (45%).

Almost two-in-five British Columbians (39%, +7) would like to see a merger encompassing BC United and the Conservative Party of BC before this year’s provincial election, while 42% (-3) disagree and 20% (-3) are not sure. The creation of a merged party is backed by more than half of British Columbians who would vote for the BC Conservatives (54%) or BC United (53%) if an election took place today.

Falcon is regarded as better suited than Rustad to attract male voters (26% to 19%), female voters (20% to 17%), voters aged 18-to-34 (23% to 17%) and voters in Metro Vancouver (25% to 19%) to BC United.

Rustad is ahead of Falcon as the best leader to attract voters aged 55 and over (30% to 20%), voters in the Fraser Valley (25% to 20%) and voters in Northern BC (27% to 17%) to the BC Conservatives.

The two party leaders are virtually tied on five other categories: forming the government after this year’s election (Falcon 21%, Rustad 20%), serving as Official Opposition leader after this year’s election (Rustad 24%, Falcon 22%), attracting voters aged 35-to-54 (Rustad 24%, Falcon 22%), attracting voters in Southern BC (Rustad 22%, Falcon 21%) and attracting voters in Vancouver Island (Falcon 21%, Rustad 20%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from April 15 to April 17, 2024, among 801 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Two Years Later, Views on COVID-19 Protests Soften in Canada

April 19, 2024April 18, 2024By Mario Canseco

More than half of Canadians still think the federal government was justified in invoking the Emergencies Act.

Vancouver, BC [April 19, 2024] – The perceptions of Canadians on the series of protests and blockades against restrictions and mandates related to the COVID-19 pandemic have shifted over the past couple of years, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, just over seven-in-ten Canadians (71%) say they “very closely” or “moderately closely” followed the protests and blockades that took place in Ottawa and other parts of Canada at the start of 2022.

Half of Canadians (50%, -9 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February 2022) opposed the protests and blockades, while just over two-in-five (41%, +6) supported them and 9% (+3) are not sure.

Support for the protests and blockades is highest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (46%), followed by Alberta (45%), Ontario (44%), Atlantic Canada (42%), Quebec (38%) and British Columbia (33%).

More than half of Canadians (58%, -5) believe the federal government was justified in invoking the Emergencies Act to deal with the protests and blockades, while 32% (+4) consider Ottawa’s actions as unjustified.

Majorities of Canadians who voted for the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the 2021 election (73% and 65% respectively) endorse the use of the Emergencies Act. The proportion is decidedly lower (42%) among Conservative Party voters in the last federal ballot.

“More than three-in-five Canadians who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 (63%) think the federal government was correct in invoking the Emergencies Act in 2022,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Only 28% of unvaccinated Canadians feel the same way.”

Just over three-in-four Canadians (76%, -5) are “very concerned” or “moderately concerned” about violence breaking out at the site of protests and blockades. Majorities of Canadians are also worried about foreign money being used to fund the activities of protestors (65%, -6), the federal government relying on the Emergencies Act to end other protests in the future (also 65%, =) and Canada’s image in the world being negatively affected by the protests and the federal government’s actions (59%, -11).

A third of Canadians (34%) believe that no COVID-19 mandates and restrictions should have been implemented, while 59% disagree with this notion.

More than two-in-five Canadians (42%, +7) believe the actions of the people protesting against restrictions and mandates were justified, while 51% (-7) disagree with this assessment.

Canadians are deeply divided on whether the people protesting against restrictions and mandates were fighting for freedom: 45% (+5) agree with this view, while 47% (-7) disagree.

One third of Canadians (34%, +8) agree that the federal government should be overthrown, while a majority (54%, -11) disagree with the statement.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 8 to April 10, 2024, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.

Conservatives Maintain Double-Digit Advantage in Canada

April 16, 2024April 15, 2024By Mario Canseco

Perceptions on the tenure of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister are significantly worse now than in 2020.

Vancouver, BC [April 16, 2024] – Support for the Conservative Party remains stable and superior to that of all other federal political organizations in Canada, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 38% of decided voters in Canada would back the Conservative candidate in their riding if an election took place tomorrow, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in late November 2023.

The governing Liberal Party is second with 26% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 10% (+1), the Green Party with 3% (-1) and the People’s Party with 1% (-1).

The Conservatives are ahead among decided voters in Alberta (60%, +2), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (48%, +4), British Columbia (46%, +1), Atlantic Canada (44%, -3) and Ontario (40%, -2). In Quebec, the Bloc is now in first place (34%, +5), followed by the Liberals (28%, -6).

More than a quarter of Canadians (27%, -2) believe housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important issue facing the country right now, followed by the economy and jobs (24%, +3), health care (15%, -4), the environment (8%, +2) and immigration (also 8%, +2).

The approval rating did not change over the past few months for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (48%, =), Official Opposition and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (47%, =) and Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (39%, =). The proportions remain lower for Green leader Elizabeth May (33%, -1), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, +4) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (22%, +3).

When Canadians ponder which one of the six party leaders would make the best prime minister, Poilievre remains in first place with 32% (=), followed by Trudeau (26%, +3) and Singh (17%, -1).

Poilievre also maintains his advantage as a financial manager, with 49% of Canadians (+2) saying they would be comfortable if he oversaw the national economy. The rating is lower for Trudeau (38%, +1).

There is little movement on a question related to the March 2022 supply and confidence agreement struck by the Liberals and the NDP, with 43% of Canadians (+1) saying they are satisfied with what has been achieved so far.

“Canadians aged 55 and over are particularly skeptical of the current deal encompassing the Liberals and the New Democrats,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “More than half (53%) are dissatisfied with its accomplishments.”

Across the country, 50% of Canadians (+25 since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in May 2020) think Trudeau has performed worse than they expected since taking office in November 2015. More than a third (35%, -13) say he has performed as they expected, while 10% (-14) believe Trudeau has been better than originally envisioned.

Most Canadians (55%, +14) believe Trudeau has accomplished little since he became prime minister, while 20% (-4) say he has achieved much and 15% (-9) think it is too early to judge his accomplishments.

At least three-in-five Canadians think three issues are worse now than nine years ago: the Canadian economy (67%, +19), taxation (61%, +28) and health care (60%, +31).

More than a third of Canadians also believe seven other issues have declined since 2015: national unity (49%, +19), public safety (48%, +25), Canada’s reputation in the world (46%, +24), the environment (43%, +16), ethics and accountability (also 43%, +18), Canada’s role in global affairs (38%, +16) and national defence (37%, +20).

Find our data tables here and download the press release here.