Tag: Saskatchewan

Late Surge Gives Saskatchewan Its Closest Election Since 2003

Late Surge Gives Saskatchewan Its Closest Election Since 2003

By Mario Canseco

On the “Best Premier” question, Scott Moe and Carla Beck are separated by just four points.

Vancouver, BC [October 27, 2024] – Voters in Saskatchewan head to tomorrow’s provincial election with the two main parties locked in a statistical tie, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 48% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their constituency, while 46% would support the governing Saskatchewan Party. Across Saskatchewan, 5% of decided voters would back other parties or independent candidates.

Since the previous Research Co. survey conducted in early October, province-wide support for the NDP has risen by five points, while backing for the Saskatchewan Party has dropped by the same margin.

Among male decided voters, the Saskatchewan Party has an eight-point lead over the NDP (52% to 44%). The NDP is now ahead of the Saskatchewan Party among female decided voters (51% to 42%).

The race is extremely close among decided voters aged 55 and over (Sask. Party 46%, NDP 45%) and decided voters aged 35-to-54 (49% for each party). The NDP is in first place among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (55% to 40%).

On a regional basis, the NDP holds the upper hand in Regina (59% to 37%) and Saskatoon (56% to 41%). The Saskatchewan Party remains ahead in the rest of the province (62% to 30%).

“The retention rate for the Saskatchewan Party has dropped from 85% in early October to 71% on the eve of the election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The NDP has been stable on this indicator, with 91% of those who voted for the opposition party in 2020 saying they will remain there this year.”

As was the case in the early stage of the campaign, more than half of likely voters have a positive opinion of the performance of both Official Opposition and NDP leader Carla Beck (56%, -2) and Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe (52%, also -2).

The numbers moved drastically on the “Best Premier” question. Moe is still favoured by just over two-in-five likely voters (44%, +2), but Beck is now just four points behind (40%, +11).

Beck posts a momentum score of +16 (35% of likely voters in Saskatchewan say their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign, while 19% say it has worsened). Moe posts a score of -11 (21% “improved”, 32% “worsened”).

Three-in-ten likely voters in Saskatchewan (30%, +3) identify health care as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, -3), the economy and jobs (19%, +1), crime and public safety (9%, -1), education (6%, +1), the environment (4%, +1) and accountability (3%, +1).

The Saskatchewan Party has won the last four provincial elections with more than half of all ballots cast (51% in 2007, 64% in 2011, 63% in 2016 and 61% in 2020). The last election where a party formed the government without a majority of the vote was 2003, when the NDP secured 45% of the vote and 30 of the 58 seats at stake.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 25 to October 27, 2024, among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 474 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.5 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo Credit: Tundraski

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Ruling Party Stays Ahead of Opposition NDP in Saskatchewan

Ruling Party Stays Ahead of Opposition NDP in Saskatchewan

By Mario Canseco

The approval rating for both Carla Beck and Scott Moe surpasses 50%, but Moe is ahead on the “Best Premier” question.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2024] – The governing Saskatchewan Party is ahead of the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) in the early stages of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 51% of decided voters would support the Saskatchewan Party’s candidate in their constituency, while 43% would vote for the New Democrats. The Green Party is third with 3%, while 2% of decided voters would back other parties or independents.

“The Saskatchewan Party has a 15-point advantage over the NDP among male decided voters (55% to 40%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The two parties are virtually tied among female decided voters (Sask. Party 48%, NDP 47%).”

On a regional basis, the race is very close in Saskatoon (NDP 47%, Sask. Party 46%). The governing party is ahead in Regina (51% to 45%) and in the rest of the province (61% to 35%).

Support for the Saskatchewan Party is highest among decided voters aged 55 and over (56%) and falls slightly among those aged 35-to-54 (52%) and those aged 18-to-34 (48%). Conversely. the New Democrats fare better with the youngest adults (46%) but drop among those aged 35-to-54 (43%) and those aged 55 and over (39%).

More than half of likely voters in the province approve of the performance of both Official Opposition and NDP leader Carla Beck (58%) and Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe (54%).

Fewer than two-in-five likely voters approve of five other leaders: Rose Marie Buscholl of the Progressive Conservative Party (35%), Naomi Hunter of the Greens (34%), Teunis Peters of the Saskatchewan Progress Party (33%), Jon Hromek of the Saskatchewan United Party (29%) and Phillip Zajac of the Buffalo Party (25%).

Beck posts an impressive momentum score of +14 (with 30% of likely voters in Saskatchewan saying their opinion of her has improved since the start of the campaign). Moe’s score on this question is even (24% of respondents say their views on him have improved, and 24% say they have worsened).

Moe holds the upper hand on Beck when decided voters are asked who would make the “Best Premier” of Saskatchewan (42% to 29%), with Hunter at 9%

Similar proportions of likely voters in Saskatchewan select two issues as the most important ones facing the province: health care (27%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (26%). Fewer respondents are primarily concerned about the economy and jobs (18%), crime and public safety (10%), education (5%), the environment (3%) and accountability (2%).

Moe leads Beck when respondents are asked about the person best suited to manage four issues: energy (40% to 30%), the economy and jobs (39% to 29%), crime and public safety (36% to 30%) and government accountability (36% to 30%).

Beck is ahead of Moe health care (38% to 32%) and education (37% to 29%). The two leaders are virtually tied on two other issues: housing, poverty and homelessness (Moe 36%, Beck 34%) and the environment (Beck 32%, Moe 30%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 7 to October 9, 2024, among a representative sample of 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 413 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.8 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Perception of Crime Highest in Manitoba, Lowest in Saskatchewan

Perception of Crime Highest in Manitoba, Lowest in Saskatchewan

By Mario Canseco

More than half of British Columbians and Albertans believe criminal activity has increased in the past four years.

Vancouver, BC [April 12, 2024] – Residents of Manitoba are more likely to believe that crime is on the rise in their community, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative samples in five Canadian provinces, 63% of Manitobans say the level of criminal activity has increased in their community over the past four years, up nine points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in November 2020.

The proportions of residents who feel this way are lower in British Columbia (54%, -4 since 2023), Alberta (also 54%, +6 since 2020), Ontario (48%) and Saskatchewan (42%, +1 since 2020).

Fewer than one-in-four residents of Alberta (23%, -1), Saskatchewan (20%, -7), Manitoba (18%, -13), British Columbia (17%, -1) and Ontario (14%) have been victims of a crime involving the police (such as an assault or a car break-in) in their community over the past four years.

Majorities of Manitobans (54%), Albertans (also 54%) and British Columbians (51%, -1) say they fear becoming victims of a crime in their community “a great deal” or “a fair amount”. The proportions are lower in Ontario (45%) and Saskatchewan (37%).

More than seven-in-ten Ontarians (71%) say they would feel “very safe” or “moderately safe” walking alone in their own neighbourhood after dark. Majorities of respondents in Saskatchewan (65%), British Columbia (also 65%, +2), Alberta (63%) and Manitoba (57%) express the same view.

Residents of the five Canadian provinces hold differing views when asked about which factors are to blame “a great deal” for the current situation regarding crime and public safety in your community.

More than half of British Columbians (56%, -3) mention addiction and mental health issues, followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (39%, -2), poverty and inequality (36%, +2), an inadequate court system (35%, -4) and a bad economy and unemployment (29%, +7).

Albertans also place addiction and mental health issues at the top of their list (48%), followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (33%), an inadequate court system (also 33%), poverty and inequality (31%) and bad economy and unemployment (also 31%).

In Saskatchewan, at least two-in-five residents blame gangs and the illegal drug trade (43%) and addiction and mental health issues (40%), followed by poverty and inequality (30%), lack of values and improper education for youth (29%) and an inadequate court system (27%).

Most Manitobans (56%) blame addiction and mental health issues, followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (44%), an inadequate court system (35%), poverty and inequality (34%), and lack of values and improper education for youth (30%).

In Ontario, addiction and mental health issues garner the most mentions (39%), followed by gangs and the illegal drug trade (35%), poverty and inequality (31%), lack of values and improper education for youth (30%) and bad economy and unemployment (29%).

“Most residents of these five Canadian provinces gravitate primarily to addiction and mental health when thinking about crime and public safety,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “In no province do we see at least three-in-ten respondents blaming insufficient policing or lack of resources to combat crime for the current situation.”

Methodology: Results are based on online surveys conducted from March 29 to March 31, 2024, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults in Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan, 600 adults in Manitoba and 600 adults in Ontario. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region for each province. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, 19 times out of 20.

Find the data tables for British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

What Is Saskatchewan?

What Is Saskatchewan?

By Mario Canseco

Canada’s first crowdsourced poll reveals a province divided, deadlocked and potentially disengaged.  

Vancouver, BC [February 25, 2022] – Last week, Saskatchewan residents, hungry for a new way to inform themselves about their government, community and province, crowdsourced Vancouver’s Research Co. to conduct a poll on their behalf.  

The answer to the question “What is Saskatchewan?”, however, remains fairly elusive.  

An online study conducted from February 19 to February 23, 2022, among a representative sample of 808 adults in Saskatchewan, with a focus on the present and future of the province’s politics, COVID-19 pandemic response and economic conditions, revealed consensus opinion on very little.  

For example, one of the most consistent answers, 1 in 4, was “Not sure”, in response to questions on the necessity of new or rebranded political parties to replace the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Saskatchewan Party. More than a third of residents (37%) agreed with the statement that “neither of the two major political parties in Saskatchewan truly represent my views.”  

“While support for the Saskatchewan Party amongst all voters remains strong, a significant number of residents feel disengaged when it comes to Saskatchewan’s political future,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Premier Scott Moe’s approval rating stands at 50%, yet 54% of residents agree that his government is not doing enough to deal with the suicide crisis in northern Saskatchewan.”  

Tammy Nicklas-Robert, a Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based researcher and communications’ consultant, used the GoFundMe platform to crowdsource the Research Co. study as one potential solution to what she sees as mounting frustration in her province due to a collective sense of isolation and powerlessness.  

“When I first floated the idea on social media, I was overwhelmed by the volume and intensity of the response,” says Nicklas-Robert. “What I heard is after two years of the pandemic, Saskatchewan people are feeling isolated, disheartened by what they perceive to be a lack of trustworthy data and facts related to their province’s social, economic and political reality, but also ready to reconnect with like-minded collectives.”  

She points to the result on mask-wearing in Saskatchewan after the mandate drops as evidence that those collectives will emerge. More than three-in-five Saskatchewanians (63%) say they plan to continue wearing a mask or face covering when entering businesses and public venues, even if this is no longer a requirement.  

“When we know how much anger can be triggered in others when they see someone wearing a medical mask, even during a pandemic, those who plan to continue to wear one in public after February 28 will hopefully find some comfort in knowing that they are well within the majority planning to do the same,” she continued.    

More highlights from this study:    

COVID-19  

A majority of Saskatchewan residents (58%) consider COVID-19 as a real threat to them and their family’s health and safety. More than a third (36%) think COVID-19 is not a real threat.  

Most of the province’s residents (53%) are satisfied with the way their municipal government has dealt with COVID-19. The rating is lower for the Saskatchewan government (48%) and the federal Liberal government (37%).  

While a majority of Saskatchewanians trust their provincial government to respond to a natural disaster (57%), the trust-level drops on all other issues tested, such as managing the provincial budget (49%), ensuring the sustainability of the health care system (46%) and collaborating with public health and medical professionals to establish health guidelines and restrictions (44%).  

Just over two-in-five residents trust their provincial government to release accurate (43%) and complete (41%) information about COVID-19 cases and hospitalization rates to the media and the public.  

More than half of Saskatchewanians (55%) agree with the provincial government’s decision to cancel “Proof of Vaccination” or negative test requirement in order to enter specific businesses and public venues, while two-in-five (40%) disagree with it.  

Residents are evenly divided on the provincial government’s decision to end the indoor mask mandate on February 28 (Agree 48%, Disagree 47%).    

The Economy  

Residents are also evenly divided on the state of Saskatchewan’s economy, with 43% considering it “very good” or “good” and 45% deeming it “bad” or “very bad.”  

One-in-four Saskatchewanians (26%) expect the provincial economy to improve over the next six months, while 43% foresee no change and one-in-five (19%) predict a decline.    

Politics  

Half of the province’s residents (50%) approve of Scott Moe’s performance as Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader, while two-in-five (40%) disapprove. The rating is lower for departing Saskatchewan NDP leader Ryan Meili (34%), Progressive Conservative Party leader Glen Leson (17%), Green Party leader Naomi Hunter (15%) and Liberal Party leader Jeff Walters (13%).  

More than half of decided voters in the province (53%) would support the Saskatchewan Party if a provincial election were held today, with the Saskatchewan NDP a distant second with 37%. Support is in single digits for the Buffalo Party (3%), the Green Party (2%), the Progressive Conservative Party (also 2%) and the Liberal Party (1%).  

Almost half of residents (47%) say they would vote for the Saskatchewan Party if Moe is no longer its leader in the next provincial election—including 86% of those who voted for the party in 2020.  

A third of Saskatchewanians (34%) say they plan to vote for the NDP even with a leader other than Meili—including 84% of those who cast ballots for NDP candidates in the last provincial election.  

More than three-in-ten residents believe the province needs a new centre-right political party that is not the Saskatchewan Party (33%) or a new centre-left political party that is not the NDP (32%). More than a third (37%) feel that neither of the two major parties in Saskatchewan truly represent their views.  

A majority of residents (55%) believe the NDP should consider a re-brand before the next election—a proportion that rises to 61% among those who voted for the New Democrats in 2020.  

Just under half of Saskatchewanians believe that the provincial government is doing enough to deal with two pending concerns: the discovery of residential school grave sites (49%) and the future of the oil and gas industry (46%).  

Fewer residents think the provincial government is paying enough attention to the impact of climate change (42%), the use of prescription and non-prescription opioid drugs (30%) and the suicide crisis in northern Saskatchewan (27%).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from February 19 to February 23, 2022, among 808 adults in Saskatchewan. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

One-in-Four Albertans Support Becoming an Independent Nation

One-in-Four Albertans Support Becoming an Independent Nation

By Mario Canseco

The idea of independence is more appealing to the province’s residents if Saskatchewan and British Columbia join in.

Vancouver, BC [February 16, 2021] – Support for the formation of a country independent of Canada grows in both Alberta and Saskatchewan if British Columbia is included in the territory, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of Canadians in the three western provinces gauged support for sovereignty under various scenarios.

The idea of an independent country that would encompass British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan is appealing to 29% of both Albertans and Saskatchewanians, but only to 12% of British Columbians.

Almost half of Albertans who voted for the United Conservative Party (UCP) in the 2019 provincial election (47%), more than a third of men in Saskatchewan (35%) and almost three-in-ten residents of Northern BC (28%) voice support for an independent country encompassing the three western provinces.

In this survey, one-in-four Albertans (25%) are in favour of their province becoming a country independent from Canada. This level of support is consistent with what was observed in similar questions asked by Research Co. in December 2018 (25%) but lower than the numbers registered in July 2019 (30%).

Fewer than one-in-six residents of Saskatchewan (16%) and British Columbia (12%) are in favour of their respective provinces becoming sovereign on their own.

When asked about the possibility of an independent nation encompassing Alberta and Saskatchewan, one-in-four Albertans (26%) and one-in-five Saskatchewanians (21%) are in favour.

Only 13% of British Columbians agree with the prospect of forming a sovereign nation with Alberta. While 18% of Albertans support their province joining the United States, only 7% of British Columbians concur.

Residents of the three provinces were also asked about their perceptions of specific levels of government. At least three-in-five Saskatchewanians (62%) and British Columbians (60%) consider their own provincial government as “very responsive” or moderately responsive” to their needs and the needs of other residents. In Alberta, only 43% of respondents feel the same way.

“In Alberta, the criticism towards the provincial government is not coming exclusively from supporters of opposition parties,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Half of those who voted for the UCP in 2019 (50%) believe that the current administration is responsive, but two-in-five (41%) do not.”

The responsiveness of local governments was rated positively by majorities of residents in each of the three provinces (64% in Saskatchewan, 60% in British Columbia and 58% in Alberta). 

While more than two-in-five British Columbians (45%) believe the federal government is responsive to their needs, the proportion drops to 32% in Alberta and 26% in Saskatchewan.

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from February 7 to February 9, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults in Alberta and 600 adults in Saskatchewan. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta and Saskatchewan, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables for British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Western Canadians Support Banning Single-Use Plastics

Western Canadians Support Banning Single-Use Plastics

By Mario Canseco

Majorities of residents of the four Canadian provinces say they are relying on reusable bags when shopping for groceries.

Vancouver, BC [January 12, 2021] – The federal government’s plan to curb the use of single-use plastics in Canada is supported by most residents of the four western provinces, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 82% of British Columbians, 78% of Manitobans, 71% of Albertans and 69% of Saskatchewanians support the proposal.

The federal plan calls for as ban on grocery checkout bags, straws, stir sticks, six-pack rings, plastic cutlery and food takeout containers made from hard-to-recycle plastics.

Support for the ban on single-use plastics is highest among British Columbians who voted for the BC Green Party in the 2020 provincial election (91%), as well as those who voted for the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the most recent provincial democratic processes held in Saskatchewan (90%) and Alberta (86%).

In British Columbia, more than three-in-four respondents to this survey (77%) say they rely on their own re-usable bag when shopping for groceries—a proportion that rises to 80% among those aged 35-to-54.

Majorities of residents of Alberta (69%), Saskatchewan (64%) and Manitoba (60%) are also using their own bags when they shop for groceries, instead of bags provided by the stores.

More than half of British Columbians (54%) say they go out of their way to recycle—such as holding on to bottles and cans until they can be placed into a proper recycling bin—“all of the time”. The proportion for this particular behaviour is slightly lower in Saskatchewan (50%), Manitoba (48%) and Alberta (46%).

One-in-four British Columbians (26%) say they limit hot water usage in their home—taking shorter showers or running the washing machine or dishwasher with full loads only—“all of the time”, compared to 19% in both Alberta and Saskatchewan and 17% in Manitoba.

Other behaviours are not as widely embraced across Western Canada. While 13% of British Columbians and 11% of Albertans say they unplug electrical devices in their home—such as TVs, computers and cell phone chargers—when they are not in use “all of the time”, only 5% of Saskatchewanians and 4% of Manitobans follow the same course of action.

Fewer than one-in-ten residents of each province say they buy biodegradable products or eat organic or home-grown foods “all of the time.”

“Western Canadians aged 55 and over are more likely to be keeping an eye on hot water usage in their homes,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, those aged 18-to-34 have been quicker to adopt biodegradable products.”

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from January 4 to January 6, 2021, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults In Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan and 600 adults in Manitoba. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and +/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Western Canadians Perceive Increase in Criminal Activity

Western Canadians Perceive Increase in Criminal Activity

By Mario Canseco

Fewer than a third of residents of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have reported crimes to the police.

Vancouver, BC [November 24, 2020] – More than two-in-five residents of four Canadian provinces believe that unlawful activity is on the rise in their communities, even if significantly fewer have actually been victims of crime, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of representative provincial samples, 54% of Manitobans say the level of criminal activity has increased in their community over the past three years.

Almost half of Albertans (48%) also feel that criminal activity in their communities has risen in the past three years. The numbers are slightly lower in British Columbia (42%) and Saskatchewan (41%).

The proportion of residents of the four western provinces who feel crime has decreased is in single digits (7% in Manitoba, 6% in Alberta and British Columbia, and 5% in Saskatchewan).

When respondents are asked if they have been victims of a crime that was reported to the police (such as an assault or a car break-in) in their community, only 20% of British Columbians answered affirmatively. The proportion is higher in Alberta (24%), Saskatchewan (27%) and Manitoba (31%).

“There is a clear divide between perceptions of crime and the reality that communities across Western Canada are reporting,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Respondents are significantly more likely to believe that unlawful activity has increased than to have personally experienced crime.”

In British Columbia, three-in-ten residents of Northern BC (31%) and one-in-five residents of Metro Vancouver (21%) say that they have been victims of a crime that was reported to the police over the past three years. 

In Alberta, residents of Edmonton are more likely to have experienced crime (26%) than those in Calgary (22%) or in the rest of the province (23%). 

A similar situation is observed in Saskatchewan, where more residents of Saskatoon (28%) say they have been victims of crime than those who live in Regina (24%) or in the rest of the province (18%).

In Manitoba, the proportion criminal activity reported to the police stands at 29% in Winnipeg and at 33% in the remaining areas of the province.

The groups that are more likely to believe that criminal activity is on the rise in their communities are British Columbians aged 55 and over (45%), Albertans aged 55 and over (56%), women in Saskatchewan (45%) and Manitobans aged 35-to-54 (58%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from November 14 to November 16, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia, 600 adults In Alberta, 600 adults in Saskatchewan and 600 adults in Manitoba. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in each province. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for British Columbia and+/- 4.0 percentage points for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Saskatchewan Party Keeps Sizeable Edge in Provincial Election

Saskatchewan Party Keeps Sizeable Edge in Provincial Election

By Mario Canseco

More than three-in-five likely voters in the province approve of the way Premier Scott Moe has handled his duties

Vancouver, BC [October 25, 2020] – The Saskatchewan Party remains ahead of all challengers in the Prairie Province’s election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 56% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Saskatchewan Party candidate in their constituency or have already done so in Advance Voting or through the mail, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted earlier this month.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 38%, up two points since the start of the campaign. There was no movement for the other contending parties, with the Green Party at 2%, the Progressive Conservative Party also at 2%, the Liberal Party at 1% and the Buffalo Party also at 1%.

On a regional basis, the New Democrats have a four-point edge over the Saskatchewan Party in Regina among decided voters (50% to 46%). The Saskatchewan Party leads in Saskatoon (53% to 42%) and in the rest of the province (68% to 23%).

About one-in-five decided voters who will be casting their ballot tomorrow in Saskatchewan (18%) say they may change their mind about which party or candidate to support, while 82% are certain of their choice.

At the end of the campaign, almost half of decided voters in Saskatchewan (47%) acknowledge that their main motivation is a party’s ideas and policies. The party’s leader is a distant second with 24%, followed by a desire for change (10%), the party’s candidate in the riding (9%), a desire for stability (7%) and disgust with other contending candidates (3%).

More than three-in-five likely voters (61%, -4) approve of the performance of Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe, while one third (33%, +5) disapprove. 

The rating for Official Opposition and NDP leader Ryan Meili improved by three points to 48%. The numbers are significantly lower for Green leader Naomi Hunter (22%), Progressive Conservative leader Ken Grey (17%), Liberal leader Robert Rudachyk (16%) and Buffalo leader Wade Sira (15%).

The leaders of Saskatchewan’s two main parties reach the end of the campaign with a negative momentum score: -9 for Moe (17% say their opinion of the incumbent premier has improved, while 26% say it has worsened) and -4 for Meilli (23% say their opinion of the opposition leader has improved, while 27% say it has worsened).

On the “Best Premier” question, Moe remains in first place with 51% (+2), followed by Meilli with 29% (+8). The other party leaders are in single digits.

As was the case at the start of the campaign, more than a third of likely voters (35%, =) say the economy and jobs is the most important issue facing Saskatchewan, followed by heath care (31%, +3), crime and public safety (7%, +2), housing, poverty and homelessness (also 7%, +2) and COVID-19 (also 7%, +2).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 23 to October 25, 2020, among 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 456 decided voters in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca

Saskatchewan Party Ahead of NDP in Provincial Election

Saskatchewan Party Ahead of NDP in Provincial Election

By Mario Canseco

Practically half of likely voters in the province say Scott Moe is their preferred leader to serve as head of government.

Vancouver, BC [October 11, 2020] – The Saskatchewan Party holds a sizeable advantage in the electoral campaign currently underway in the Prairie Province, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 58% of decided voters in Saskatchewan would cast a ballot for the candidate of the governing party in their constituency.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 36%, followed by the Green Party with 2%, the Progressive Conservative Party also with 2%, the Liberal Party with 1% and the Buffalo Party also with 1%.

The race is currently tight in Regina, where the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP are virtually tied among decided voters (49% and 47% respectively). The governing party is ahead in Saskatoon (54% to 41%) and in the rest of the province (65% to 25%).

Practically four-in-five decided voters in Saskatchewan (79%) say they are certain of their current choice, while 21% say they may change their mind before Election Day on Oct. 26.

The primary motivation for decided voters in Saskatchewan is a party’s ideas and policies (38%), followed by the party’s leader (32%), the candidate in the riding (10%), a desire for stability (also 10%), a desire for change (7%) and disgust with other contending candidates (3%).

“Decided voters who plan to support the Saskatchewan Party are more likely to say that their main motivation is the leader (41%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Conversely, those who plan to cast a ballot for the NDP are more likely to cite ideas and policies (42%).”

Almost two thirds of the province’s likely voters (65%) are satisfied with the way Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe has handled his duties, while 28% are not and 7% are undecided.

Likely voters are divided in their assessment of Official Opposition and NDP leader Ryan Meili (Approve 45%, Disapprove 44%). The rating is lower for Progressive Conservative leader Ken Grey (35%), Green leader Naomi Hunter (32%), Liberal leader Robert Rudachyk (31%) and Buffalo leader Wade Sira (25%).

On the “Best Premier” question, Moe holds a commanding lead over Meili (49% to 21%). The other four party leaders are in single digits.

More than a third of likely voters in Saskatchewan (35%) believe the economy and jobs is the most important issue facing the province, followed by heath care (28%), the environment (8%) and crime and public safety (5%).

Moe holds the upper hand over Meili as the best leader to handle eight issues: energy (46% to 19%), the economy and jobs (45% to 24%), crime and public safety (42% to 19%), accountability (41% to 22%), the environment (40% to 19%), health care (39% to 30%), education (39% to 24%) and housing, poverty and homelessness (38% to 23%).

Methodology:
Results are based on an online study conducted from October 8 to October 10, 2020, among 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 447 decided voters in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

Photo by Tintaggon.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca