Saskatchewan Party Keeps Sizeable Edge in Provincial Election

More than three-in-five likely voters in the province approve of the way Premier Scott Moe has handled his duties

Vancouver, BC [October 25, 2020] – The Saskatchewan Party remains ahead of all challengers in the Prairie Province’s election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 56% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Saskatchewan Party candidate in their constituency or have already done so in Advance Voting or through the mail, down two points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted earlier this month.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is in second place with 38%, up two points since the start of the campaign. There was no movement for the other contending parties, with the Green Party at 2%, the Progressive Conservative Party also at 2%, the Liberal Party at 1% and the Buffalo Party also at 1%.

On a regional basis, the New Democrats have a four-point edge over the Saskatchewan Party in Regina among decided voters (50% to 46%). The Saskatchewan Party leads in Saskatoon (53% to 42%) and in the rest of the province (68% to 23%).

About one-in-five decided voters who will be casting their ballot tomorrow in Saskatchewan (18%) say they may change their mind about which party or candidate to support, while 82% are certain of their choice.

At the end of the campaign, almost half of decided voters in Saskatchewan (47%) acknowledge that their main motivation is a party’s ideas and policies. The party’s leader is a distant second with 24%, followed by a desire for change (10%), the party’s candidate in the riding (9%), a desire for stability (7%) and disgust with other contending candidates (3%).

More than three-in-five likely voters (61%, -4) approve of the performance of Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe, while one third (33%, +5) disapprove. 

The rating for Official Opposition and NDP leader Ryan Meili improved by three points to 48%. The numbers are significantly lower for Green leader Naomi Hunter (22%), Progressive Conservative leader Ken Grey (17%), Liberal leader Robert Rudachyk (16%) and Buffalo leader Wade Sira (15%).

The leaders of Saskatchewan’s two main parties reach the end of the campaign with a negative momentum score: -9 for Moe (17% say their opinion of the incumbent premier has improved, while 26% say it has worsened) and -4 for Meilli (23% say their opinion of the opposition leader has improved, while 27% say it has worsened).

On the “Best Premier” question, Moe remains in first place with 51% (+2), followed by Meilli with 29% (+8). The other party leaders are in single digits.

As was the case at the start of the campaign, more than a third of likely voters (35%, =) say the economy and jobs is the most important issue facing Saskatchewan, followed by heath care (31%, +3), crime and public safety (7%, +2), housing, poverty and homelessness (also 7%, +2) and COVID-19 (also 7%, +2).

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 23 to October 25, 2020, among 500 likely voters in Saskatchewan, including 456 decided voters in the 2020 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Saskatchewan. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 4.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.