Most Albertans—and those who voted to stay in Canada—think a new referendum on sovereignty would be unwise.
Vancouver, BC [October 21, 2026] – The result of Question 10 in the Alberta provincial referendum ended up being similar to what was projected both in August and last weekend: a 3-to-1 margin in favour of the side that wants the province to remain in Canada over the side that sought to hold a binding referendum at a later date.
In our “Exit Poll”, almost four-in-five Albertans who cast a ballot over the past few days (78%) say they are “happy” with the outcome: a clear win for “Alberta should remain a province in Canada.” A majority of referendum voters (69%) would also have been happy with a close win for “Remain”, while fewer than a third would have enthusiastically welcomed two other scenarios: a close win (30%) or a clear win (28%) for “New Referendum”.
More than three-in-five referendum voters in Alberta (64%) express full confidence in Elections Alberta to oversee the entire voting process. For those who cast a ballot to have a binding vote on independence—who were indubitably exposed to some sorely misguided social media posts before and during the democratic process—trust in Elections Alberta stands at 51%.
Almost three-in-five voters in Alberta (59%) are convinced that foreign governments attempted to influence this year’s referendum. “Remain” voters are slightly more certain when pondering these efforts (62%) than “New Referendum” supporters (56%).
More than half of Albertans describe three referendum campaigns as “very positive” or “moderately positive”: Forever Canadian (66%), Vote to Stay (60%) and Lead, Not Leave (55%). The rating is lower for the actions of the Confederacy of Treaty No. 6 First Nations (46%) and Alberta’s Voice (44%).
In stark contrast, the messaging emanating from the campaigns assembled to advocate for separation was not universally well received. The largest proportion of positive mentions is for Let’s Talk Alberta (46%), followed by Let Alberta Decide (44%), Stay Free Alberta (37%) and Take Back Alberta (31%).
In May 2025—more than a year before the referendum was held—Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet suggested that separation for a Canadian province requires “a culture of their own”.
When asked directly is Alberta—like Quebec—has a unique culture that is different from the rest of Canada, 44% of referendum voters concur. This sentiment is more pronounced among “New Referendum” voters (75%) than “Remain” voters (33%).
In a separate question, almost two thirds of referendum voters (65%) say they are “Canadians first, Albertans second”, while just over one-in-five (22%) claim to be “Albertans first, Canadians second.” This is very different from what we found after the latest Quebec provincial election, where more than half of voters (52%) branded themselves as “Quebecers first, Canadians second.”
Our Exit Poll also found that 43% of referendum voters think the views from Albertans are different from the rest of Canada, while 27% believe Albertans have more in common with Americans than with those in other parts of Canada.
The appetite for a new vote on sovereignty—one Quebec had to wait 15 years for after its first attempt in 1980—is low. Just under three-in-ten Albertans (29%) would welcome holding another referendum on whether Alberta should remain a province in Canada in the next two to 10 years, while 58% would simply not hold a new vote on this matter.
As expected, those who voted “New Referendum” would prefer to cast a ballot again before 2036 (71%), while 75% of “Remain” supporters do not think a new democratic process related to independence is warranted.
What made this campaign different from the experience of Canadians in 1980 and 1995 in Quebec can be boiled down to two factors: experience and intellectual gravitas. Alberta’s separatist leaders were trusted by fewer than 15% of likely voters in August and October, due to a combination of rowdiness and unsophistication. The vote would have been much closer if the voices calling for sovereignty had actually governed something—anything—at some point.
Find our data tables here.
Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted on October 19 and October 20, 2026, among 601 Alberta adults who voted in the 2026 provincial referendum. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.0 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca