Stephen Harper and Mark Carney are the most trusted sources on the issue of Alberta seceding from Canada.
Vancouver, BC [August 31, 2026] – The upcoming referendum in Alberta would see a high level of support for the questions related to immigration, but the idea of holding a binding vote on separation is not resonating with the public, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Alberta, 74% say they would vote for the province to remain in Canada, while 22% would cast a ballot in favour of the Government of Alberta commencing the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.
“Support for a binding referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada is highest among Albertans aged 35-to-54 (27%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Fewer Albertans aged 55 and over (20%) and aged 18-to-34 (18%) concur.”
The survey also outlines a drop when the questions used in a January 2026 Research Co. poll are revisited, with 26% of Albertans (-5) supporting the idea of Alberta becoming a country independent from Canada and 16% (-8) welcoming the notion of Alberta joining the United States.
The province-wide referendum scheduled for October 19 also includes questions on immigration and constitutional issues.
Majorities of likely voters in Alberta say they will vote “Yes” on the five questions related to immigration:
- The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election (66%).
- The Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities (65%).
- The Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially-funded social support programs, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now (60%).
- The Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family’s use of the health care and education systems, assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now (also 60%).
- The Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially-funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services (58%).
Public support is decidedly lower on the four questions related to constitutional issues:
- The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province’s laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province’s laws and federal laws conflict (46%).
- The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King’s Bench and Appeal courts (45%).
- The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs (41%).
- The Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate (39%).
Likely voters in Alberta think that the validity of the referendum as a true representation of the wishes of the public hinges on voter turnout. Majorities believe a level of participation that ranges from 51% to 60% of registered voters (58%), from 61% to 70% of registered voters (75%) or of more than 70% of registered voters (80%) would be sufficient.
Conversely, most likely voters in Alberta believe turnouts ranging from 41% to 50% of registered voters (55%), from 31% to 40% of registered voters (69%) or fewer than 30% of registered voters (72%) would not be enough to deem the referendum as a true representation of the wishes of Albertans.
Likely voters in Alberta were asked if they trust 15 different individuals on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.
More than half say they “definitely” or “probably” trust former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper (51%) and current Canadian prime minister Mark Carney (also 51%). The rating is lower for current federal Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (47%), current provincial Official Opposition leader Naheed Nenshi (46%), former Alberta premier Rachel Notley (40%), current Alberta premier Danielle Smith (37%) and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney (32%).
Fewer than a third of likely voters in Alberta trust professional hockey player Connor McDavid (26%), leader of the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) Avi Lewis (20%), Progressive Tory Party of Alberta leader Peter Guthrie (17%), Wildrose Loyalty Coalition leader Paul Hinman (13%), Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder and lawyer Jeffrey Rath (also 13%), Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre (also 13%), social media personality Marty Belanger (11%) or Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies (10%) on the issue of Alberta separating from Canada.
Respondents to this survey were presented with potential scenarios in the event Alberta secedes from Canada.
Likely voters are evenly divided on whether they would stay put (45%) or move out of the province (44%) if separation happens.
Residents of the Calgary Metropolitan Area are more likely to say they would leave a sovereign Alberta (49%) than those who live in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (44%) or in other parts of the province (38%).
Just over half of likely voters in in Alberta (51%) think a sovereign Alberta should keep a parliamentary system (where the leader of the party with the most seats in the legislature becomes the head of government), while 19% would prefer to adopt a presidential system (with a head of government that is directly elected).
More than two-in-five likely voters in Alberta (43%) believe an independent Alberta should rely on the Canadian dollar as its currency. Fewer would prefer to establish a new currency (22%) or adopt the American dollar (16%).
Just over four-in-five likely voters in Alberta (81%) think a sovereign Alberta should maintain a publicly funded universal health care system, while half (50%) would like a sovereign Alberta to reintroduce the death penalty for murder.
Fewer likely voters in Alberta would welcome other ideas after independence, such as maintaining a Goods and Services Tax (GST) (43%), allowing Albertans to own and carry handguns for self-defence (36%), making marijuana illegal (31%), making same-sex marriage illegal (27%) or making abortion illegal (24%).
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from August 24 to August 26, 2026, among 750 likely voters in Alberta. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Alberta. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.6 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca