A sovereigntist party emerges victorious, but voters are not overwhelmingly embracing the idea of becoming an independent nation.
Vancouver, BC [October 6, 2022] – In the mid-way point of the provincial election campaign in Quebec, the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) seemed ready to re-assemble supporters after the televised debates, as one of three parties—along with the Liberal Party of Quebec and the Conservative Party of Quebec—trying to wrestle first place from the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ).
In the final week, support for the CAQ fell to fourth place, just above Québec solidaire (QS), and the possibility of a new party taking over the provincial government became clearer.
The CAQ—which dominated in 2018 and 2022 under leader François Legault—was unable to win a third consecutive election. When we asked voters in Quebec about six possible outcomes for the 2026 provincial election, the ones that provoked the least happiness where a CAQ majority (25%) and a CAQ minority (28%). Fewer than two-in-five voters welcomed the Liberal Party of Quebec assembling minority (37%) or majority (38%) governments. The rating was higher for a PQ majority (40%) or a PQ minority (45%).
Almost half of Quebecers (47%, +13 compared to the 2022 “Exit Poll”) say the most important factor in their support this year was the party’s ideas and policies, with the party’s leader a distant second consideration (27%, -8). This question outlines some key differences. CAQ voters—just like they did in the previous election—were more likely to gravitate towards the leader (48%), while PQ voters were primarily guided by ideas and policies (53%).
Half of Quebec voters (50%) think the PQ campaign was “positive” while 38% consider it “negative”. A favourable campaign assessment is lower for the Liberals (47%), the Conservatives (44%) and Québec solidaire (43%). The CAQ—which spent ample time discussing the province’s relationship with the United States and hinted at foreign interference in the electoral process—checks in at a paltry 31%, with 57% of voters thinking its campaign was “negative”.
Once again, about half of Quebecers (49%, =) admit to having voted strategically, or supporting the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they disliked, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference. This course of action was particularly popular with voters aged 18-to-34 (61%) and more likely to have moved English speakers (58%) than French speakers (47%).
The “Exit Poll” shows that this was a campaign about change, but devoid of a significant increase in the overall appetite for sovereignty. We still see voters people identifying themselves as “Quebecers first, Canadians second” (52%, =) than as “Canadians first, Quebecers second” (44%, =). More than two thirds (68%) really think the views of Quebecers are different from the rest of Canada.
Just over two-in-five voters in the 2026 provincial election (42%) think Quebecers have more in common with the people of France than with those in other parts of Canada. However, only 35% believe Quebec would be better off as its own country (56% disagree). When asked directly what they would choose if a new referendum on sovereignty were held today, only 27% would cast a ballot for Quebec to become a nation independent from Canada, while 58% would stay put.
In the end, the efforts of CAQ leader Christine Fréchette to turn the election into a referendum on which leader is best to manage Donald Trump were misguided. The incoming PQ government now faces the task of connecting with a population that remains concerned primarily about health care, housing, and jobs.
Sizeable proportions of Quebec voters think it is important for the new provincial government to have good relationships with Mark Carney and the federal government (88%) and with Doug Ford and the Ontario government (84%). More than three-in-five (61%) also say it is important to take steps to abolish the office of the lieutenant-governor and cancel its funding—a pledge made by PQ leader and incoming premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon that zeroes in on the traditionally low level of adherence to the monarchy that Quebecers have outlined in national surveys.
The lowest item on this question is establishing a timeframe for a new referendum on sovereignty. This idea is regarded as “very important” or “moderately important” by 36% of voters in Quebec—and rising to 63% among those who backed the PQ. Plamondon will need to balance the current wishes of his base with a government that establishes a contrast with the final months of Fréchette’s tenure.
Find our data tables here.
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 4 and October 5, 2026, among 500 Quebec adults who voted in the 2026 provincial election. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.4 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca