Equal proportions of likely voters say they would be “very upset” is either of the two main parties form the next government.
Vancouver, BC [October 13, 2026] – The opposition Conservative Party of BC has a slight edge over the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) in the provincial snap election campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided likely voters would support the BC Conservatives (+4 since a similar poll conducted in August), while 42% (-2) would cast a ballot for the BC New Democrats.
The BC Green Party is in third place with 8% (-2), followed by Centre BC with 2% (-3) and OneBC also with 2% (+1).
“At this point in the 2024 campaign, the level of undecided likely voters stood at eight per cent province-wide,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Today, 15% of likely voters in British Columbia are undecided.”
The BC Conservatives hold a large lead over the BC NDP among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (47% to 41%, with the BC Greens at 14%) and are slightly ahead among voters aged 35-to-54 (43% to 41%). The BC New Democrats hold the upper hand among voters aged 55 and over (52% to 41%).
On a regional basis, the BC Conservatives are first in Northern BC (55% to 39%) and the Fraser Valey (49% to 43%), while the BC NDP leads on Vancouver Island (52% to 34%). The BC Conservatives are slightly ahead in Southern BC (44% to 40%) and Metro Vancouver (45% to 43%)
The BC Greens are only holding on to 51% of their voters from the 2024 election, with 25% of them going to the BC NDP, 12% to the BC Conservatives and 10% to CentreBC. The retention rate is superior for both the BC Conservatives (83%) and the BC NDP (81%).
The BC Conservatives can count on the support of 85% of decided voters who cast ballots for Conservative candidates in the 2025 federal election. The BC NDP is being backed by 78% of federal NDP and 71% of federal Liberal voters from last year.
Just over four-in-five decided voters in British Columbia (81%) say they are certain of their choice, while 19% could change their mind between now and election day.
The proportion of possible “vote switchers” stands at 15% among BC Conservative decided voters and 17% among BC NDP decided voters, but rises to 29% among BC Green decided voters.
The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby remains at 49% (=). BC Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson debuts at 45%, 11 points higher than the last number posted by previous leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay in August.
The approval ratings are lower for BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan (39%, +4), new Centre BC leader Elenore Sturko (26%) and OneBC leader Dallas Brodie (also 26%, +8).
Doerkson and Lowan are the only leaders with a positive momentum score by the mid-way of the campaign (+2 and +1 respectively). Just under one-in-four likely voters (23%) say their opinion of the BC Conservative leader has improved since the start of the campaign, while just over one-in-five (21%) say it has worsened.
The momentum scores are currently negative for Sturko (-10), Brodie (also -10) and Eby (-19, with 36% saying their opinion of him has worsened).
More than a third of likely voters (36%) think Eby would make the Best Premier out of the five party leaders. Doerkson is second on this question (25%), followed by Lowan (7%), Brodie (4%) and Sturko (also 4%).
One-in-four British Columbians (25%, +1) name the economy and jobs as the most important issue facing the province, followed by housing, poverty and homelessness (23%, -6), health care (21%, =), crime and public safety (9%, +1) and government accountability (7%, +4).
Likely voters prefer Eby to Doerksen to manage 11 issues: dealing with the federal government (33% to 23%), health care (32% to 24%), education (31% to 23%), the economy and jobs (31% to 27%), housing, poverty and homelessness (30% to 24%), government accountability (28% to 23%), dealing with municipal governments (28% to 24%), creating jobs (30% to 26%), transportation projects (29% to 23%), seniors care (28% to 22%) and child care (26% to 19%).
The two main party leaders are tied on managing the province’s finances (27% each), while Doerkson is ahead on crime and public safety (28% to 26%) and trails Eby by one point on energy (28% to 29%). Eby is tied with Lowan on the environment (24% each, with Doerkson at 18%).
More than three-in-five likely voters in British Columbia (64%) say they are happy that Kerry-Lynne Findlay is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of BC. This includes majorities of likely voters who supported the BC NDP (76%), the BC Conservatives (60%) and the BC Greens (58%) in 2024.
More than two-in-five likely voters (42%) say Doerkson is a premier-in-waiting. Fewer British Columbians expressed the same feelings for John Rustad in March 2025 (34%) or for Findlay in June 2026 (30%).
More than a third of likely voters in British Columbia (37%, +4 since June) think the Conservative Party of BC is a “free enterprise coalition”, while almost two-in-five (39%, -2) believe it is time to bring back the BC Liberals as a provincial political party.
Half of likely voters (50%) think the Conservative Party of BC is more “right wing” now that it was two years ago under John Rustad, while 42% (-5) believe British Columbia needs a centre-right party to serve as an alternative to the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives.
Three-in-five likely voters (60%)—and 66% of both BC NDP and BC Conservative voters in 2024—say they are unhappy that we are having an early provincial election.
Almost half of likely voters (46%) acknowledge feeling confused with the municipal elections and a provincial election taking place in the same month.
Equal proportions of likely voters say they would be “very upset” if the BC NDP (49%) or the BC Conservatives (also 49%) form the government after this month’s provincial election.
A televised debate featuring Eby, Doerkson and Lowan will take place this week.
Just over two-in-five likely voters (41%) support including the leaders of both CentreBC and OneBC in the televised debate, even though they are not running candidates in more than half of the province’s constituencies.
Fewer likely voters would like to see the leaders of five other parties in the televised debates: the BC Libertarian Party (25%), the Christian Heritage Party of BC (24%), the CanWest Party (23%), the Freedom Party (21%) and the Communist Party of BC (also 21%).
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 9 to October 11, 2026, among 808 likely voters in British Columbia, including 687 decided voters in the 2026 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 3.7 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca