Biden Will Capture Popular Vote Win in U.S. Presidential Election

Almost three-in-five decided female voters in the United States would support, or have voted for, the Democratic nominee.

Vancouver, BC [November 2, 2020] – Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden stands to win a majority of the votes cast in the United States presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters, 53% of decided voters would vote for Biden tomorrow or have already done so—unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in mid-October.

Republican incumbent Donald Trump is a distant second with 44%. Support is lower for both Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party (1%) and Howie Hawkins of the Green Party (also 1%).

While Trump is barely ahead among male decided voters (48% to 47%), Biden holds a 20-point advantage among female decided voters (59% to 39%). 

Biden holds large leads among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (53% to 42%) and decided voters aged 55 and over (54% to 44%). The race is closer among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (Biden 50%, Trump 47%). 

“More than half of decided voters who identify as Independent (54%) will support Biden in the presidential election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is 13 points behind (41%) among this group.”

Sizeable majorities of decided voters in the Northeast (59%) and the West (59%) are voting for Biden. The Democratic nominee holds a three-point edge in the Midwest (50% to 47%), while Trump leads by the same margin in the South (50% to 47%).

The race remains tight among White decided voters (50% for Biden, 48% for Trump), while Biden is still ahead among African Americans (88%) and Hispanic / Latino decided voters (61%).

Only 29% of decided voters who watch Fox News will support Biden in the election. The Democratic nominee fares better among decided voters who get their news from CNN (70%) and MSNBC/CNBC (88%).

The primary motivation for decided voters in the United States (43%) continues to be the candidate’s ideas and policies, followed by a desire for stability (17%), the candidate’s political party (14%), disgust with other candidates (also 14%) and a desire for change (13%).

The approval rating for Donald Trump on the eve of the election stands at 46%, up three points since mid-October. More than half of Americans (52%, -2) disapprove of his performance as president.

The groups that provide the highest marks to Trump are men (51%), Americans aged 35-to-54 (49%), residents of the South (52%) and Fox News watchers (72%).

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 31 to November 2, 2020, among 1,100 American adults, including 1,025 likely voters in the United States and 974 decided voters in the 2020 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.9 percentage points for American adults, +/- 3.0 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.1 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and here and download the press release here.

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.