Housing (43%, up eight points) remains the most important issue for likely voters in the city, followed by crime (14%, up five points).
Vancouver, BC [October 14, 2022] – The outcome of the mayoral election in Vancouver is uncertain, with the two main contenders tied and about one-in-seven likely voters still undecided about who they will support tomorrow, a new Research Co. poll has found.
The online survey of a representative sample of likely voters in Vancouver finds both incumbent Kennedy Stewart of Forward Together and challenger Ken Sim of A Better City (ABC) garnering the support of 33% of decided voters. The numbers represent a two-point drop for Stewart and a three-point gain for Sim since a Research Co. survey conducted in early September.
Colleen Hardwick of TEAM for a Livable Vancouver remains in third place with 16% (-1), followed by Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver with 8% (-5) and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) also with 8% (+4). Two per cent of decided voters say they will cast a ballot for one of the other ten mayoral candidates.
Among male decided voters, Stewart has a three-point edge over Sim (37% to 34%). The race is closer among female voters, with Sim one point ahead of Stewart (31% to 30%), and Hardwick at 21%.
Stewart is the top choice for voters on both the East side of Vancouver (37%) and Downtown (35%), while Sim holds the upper hand on the West side (35%).
Among likely voters who own their primary residence, Sim has a five-point lead over Stewart (38% to 33%), while Stewart is ahead of Sim among likely voters who rent their primary residence (33% to 25%).
“On the eve of the election, 14% of likely voters in Vancouver are still undecided about which mayoral candidate to back,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion of undecided voters is higher among women (17%), likely voters aged 35-to-54 (17%), residents of the West Side (16%) and renters (18%).”
More than two-in-five likely voters in Vancouver (43%, +8) identify housing is the most important issue facing the city—a proportion that rises to 47% among women and to 49% among likely voters aged 55 and over.
Crime is second on the list of pressing concerns for likely voters in Vancouver at 14% (+5), followed by property taxes (10%, +1), poverty (8%, -1) and drug overdoses (8%, -6).
Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 13 and October 14, 2022, among a representative sample of 400 municipal likely voters in the City of Vancouver, including 344 decided voters in the 2022 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 5.3 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.