Liberals and Conservatives Gain in Canadian Federal Campaign

Justin Trudeau holds a nine-point advantage over Andrew Scheer in the “Best Prime Minister” question.

Vancouver, BC [September 28, 2019] – The two main federal parties in Canada increased their level of voter support over the past couple of months, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 36% of decided voters (+2 since a Research Co. survey conducted in July) would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their riding in next month’s federal election.

The Conservative Party remains in second place with 33% (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15% (-2), the Green Party with 9% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 5% (+1) and the People’s Party with 2% (-1).

The two main parties hold the same level of support among male decided voters (36% for each), while the Liberals have a six-point lead over the Conservatives among women (36% to 30%).

Voters aged 18-to-34 currently prefer the Liberals (35%, with the Conservatives at 22% and the NDP at 20%). The Liberals are barely ahead among voters aged 35-to-54 (36% to 34%), while the Tories hold the same edge among voters aged 55 and over (38% to 36%).

“The Conservatives are keeping more than four-in-five decided voters (84%) who supported the party in 2015,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The retention rate is not as respectable at this point for the NDP (71%) and the Liberals (68%).”

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau remains at 41%, with more than half of Canadians (54%, +4) disapproving of his performance.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh improved his standing by seven points and is now at 42%. The approval rating is higher for Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, +2) and lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, +2). Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party dropped to 17% (-4).

Trudeau posted the lowest momentum score at -34, with 46% of Canadians saying their opinion of the incumbent prime minister has worsened since the start of the campaign. Bernier (-24) and Scheer (-17) also had negative numbers. Singh is the only leader with a positive momentum score (+3), while May is even.

On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Trudeau is first with 33%, followed by Scheer with 24%, Singh with 13% and May with 9%.

The environment is now the top issue facing Canada at 22% (+6), followed by the economy and jobs (21%, +2), health care (18%, -1) and housing, homelessness and poverty (17%, +4).

Health care is identified as the top issue in Atlantic Canada (33%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (23%), while the environment is top among Quebecers (33%). Housing, homelessness and poverty is the most important matter for British Columbians (24%), while the economy and jobs is first in Alberta (38%) and Ontario (23%).

Trudeau is the preferred leader to handle foreign affairs (32%)  health care (28%), and housing, homelessness and poverty (25%). May is clearly ahead on the environment (28%, with Trudeau at 21%)

The Liberal and Conservative leaders are tied or virtually even on four issues: crime and public safety (Scheer 26%, Trudeau 25%), economy and jobs (Trudeau 28%, Scheer 27%), energy and pipelines (Trudeau 25%, Scheer 25%) and accountability and leadership (Scheer 25%, Trudeau 24%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 24 to September 26, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca