Liberals Barely Ahead Three Months Before Canadian Election

Elizabeth May and Justin Trudeau are the only party leaders with an approval rating higher than 40% in Canada.

Vancouver, BC [July 24, 2019] – The governing Liberal Party has a slight edge over its competitors as the next Canadian federal ballot approaches, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 34% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their constituency if the election were held tomorrow.

The Conservative Party is second with 31%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17%, the Green Party with 10%, the Bloc Québécois with 4% and the People’s Party with 3%.

“The two main contending parties are locked in a tight generational race,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The Liberals have a three-point advantage over the Conservatives among decided voters aged 18-to-34 and those aged 55 and over.”

Green Party leader Elizabeth May has the highest approval rating of all five contenders (42%, with 34% disapproving), followed by Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau (41%, with 50% disapproving).

Just over a third of Canadians approve of Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (36%) and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (35%). The rating is lower for Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (21%).

The economy and jobs (19%) and health are (also 19%) are regarded as the most important issues facing Canada today, followed by the environment (16%), housing, homelessness and poverty (13%) and immigration (11%).

Fewer Canadians mentioned accountability and leadership (6%), energy and pipelines (also 6%), crime and public safety (4%) and foreign affairs (2%).

When asked what is the most important issue that will define their vote in this year’s federal election, one-in-five Canadians (20%) mention health care, including 34% in Atlantic Canada, 

Other issues mentioned by voters are the economy and jobs (18%, and 33% in Alberta), the environment (also 18%, and 28% in Quebec), housing, homelessness and poverty (12%, and 20% in British Columbia), accountability and leadership (8%) and immigration (also 8%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from July 15 to July 17, 2019, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca