The governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) is three points ahead of the opposition Conservative Party of BC.
Vancouver, BC [October 18, 2024] – The perceptions of likely voters in British Columbia did not go through a major shift in the final week of the provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 44% of decided voters—as well as British Columbians who have already voted by mail or in the advance polls—support the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate in their riding, while 41% back the Conservative Party of BC. The BC Green Party remains in third place with 12%, and 3% of decided voters would vote for independent candidates or other parties.
Compared to the previous Research Co. poll conducted in mid-October, the province-wide results see the New Democrats shedding one point and the Greens gaining one point.
On a regional basis, the New Democrats remain ahead of the Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (49% to 40%) and Vancouver Island (45% to 33%, with the Greens at 20%).
The Conservatives have the upper-hand over the New Democrats in Northern BC (53% to 29%) and are three-points ahead in Southern BC (44% to 41%). The race is extremely close in the 10 Fraser Valley ridings, where the two main partes are tied with 47% each.
“The final poll of British Columbia’s provincial campaign continues to show a noticeable gender gap,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Women prefer the BC NDP over the BC Conservatives (46% to 37%), while men choose the opposition party over the governing one (45% to 41%).”
Decided voters aged 55 and over favour the BC NDP (51% to 37%), while their counterparts aged 18-to-34 give the BC Conservatives the edge (46% to 35%). The two parties are tied with 42% among decided voters aged 35-to-54.
Most decided voters who supported the BC Liberals in the 2020 election (63%) are backing the BC Conservatives in 2024. However, just one-in-four of these voters (25%) are now favouring the BC New Democrats.
Housing, homelessness and poverty remains the most important issue for likely voters in British Columbia (40%, -1), followed by health care (23%, +1), the economy and jobs (15%, -1), crime and public safety (6%, -1) and the environment (4%, =).
At the end of the campaign, the approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader David Eby stands at 53% (=). The numbers are lower for BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (50%, +5) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad (42%, =).
Furstenau once again posts a positive momentum score (+12), with 24% of likely voters saying their impression of her has improved since the start of the campaign, and 12% claiming it has worsened. The momentum scores remain negative for the other two leaders (Eby at -4 and Rustad at -10).
Eby remains ahead on the “Best Premier” question, with 40% of likely voters (=) picking him for the province’s top political job, with 32% (+1) selecting Rustad. Furstenau is third with 14% (=), while 14% of likely voters (-1) are not sure.
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted on October 17 and October 18, 2024, among a representative sample of 803 likely voters in British Columbia, including 753 decided voters in the 2024 provincial election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in British Columbia. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.5 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.6 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca