The former president is the top choice for male voters, while women are more supportive of the current vice president.
Vancouver, BC [October 7, 2024] – Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris holds the upper hand over Republican Party nominee Donald Trump in the American presidential election, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample of likely voters in the United States, 52% of decided voters would support the current vice president or have already voted for her, while 47% would back the former president.
“Harris holds a 15-point lead over Trump among female decided voters (57% to 42%),” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Trump is ahead of Harris among male voters (52% to 47%).”
On a regional basis, Harris holds sizeable leads over Trump in the West (58% to 40%) and the Northeast (55% to 43%). Trump is first in the South (51% to 48%) while the two candidates are virtually tied in the Midwest (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).
Only 5% of decided voters say they could change their mind and support a different candidate in the presidential election. The proportion of undecided likely voters with four weeks to go in the campaign is 4%.
More than half of white decided voters (54%) would cast a ballot for Trump or have already done so. Harris leads among decided voters who are African American (71%) or Hispanic / Latino (61%).
Harris is the top choice for American decided voters who get their news from MSNBC / CNBC (81%), CNN (67%) or a local network (53%), while Trump is ahead among those who watch Fox News (68%).
Harris holds a five-point lead over Trump among decided voters who have a cat in their household (52% to 47%). The race is closer among decided voters who have a dog at home (Harris 50%, Trump 49%).
Decided voters in the United States cite the presidential candidate’s ideas and policies (43%) as the main reason behind their choice, followed by the candidate’s political party (24%), desire for stability (14%), desire for change (also 14%) and disgust with other candidates (8%).
These findings are very similar among decided voters who are backing either Harris or Trump, with one exception. While 10% of Harris voters say their main motivator is “disgust with other candidates”, the proportion is lower (5%) among Trump voters.
American likely voters were asked which of the two main presidential candidates is best suited to deal with 13 different issues.
Harris holds the upper hand over Trump on five issues: health care (52% to 36%), education (52% to 36%), the environment (52% to 35%), race relations (50% to 35%) and government accountability (47% to 41%). Trump leads Harris on two issues: immigration (50% to 39%) and national defence (48% to 41%).
The two nominees are virtually tied on six other issues: the economy (Harris 47%, Trump 45%), job creation (Harris 47%, Trump 44%), crime (Trump 45%, Harris 44%), foreign Policy (Trump 45%, Harris 43%), energy and oil (Trump 45%, Harris 43%) and managing the deficit (Trump 44%, Harris 41%).
The approval rating for U.S. President Joe Biden stands at 44% nationwide. Democrats are significantly more likely to express satisfaction with Biden’s performance at this moment (82%) than Independents (34%) or Republicans (13%).
Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from October 4 to October 6, 2024, among 1,001 likely voters in the United States and 926 decided voters in the 2024 presidential election. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.
Find our data tables here and here, and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca