Conservative Party Holds Six-Point Lead Over Liberals in Canada

Pierre Poilievre is tied with Justin Trudeau when Canadians are asked who would make the “Best Prime Minister.”

Vancouver, BC [September 7, 2023] – The popularity of the opposition Conservative Party has increased markedly in Canada over the past six months, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their constituency, up four points since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in February.

The governing Liberal Party is in second place across the country with 31% (-3), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17% (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 8% (=), the Green Party with 3% (=) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals in Ontario (40% to 35%) and British Columbia (42% to 31%). In Quebec, the Bloc is now in first place (34%), followed by the Liberals (30%) and the Conservatives (20%).

“About two-in-five decided voters aged 35-to-54 (39%) and aged 55 and over (40%) would support the Conservatives in a Canadian federal election,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The race is closer among decided voters aged 18-to-34.”

This month, the approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau stands at 41% (-5). Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre posts the same number (41%, =), while NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is at 48% (-1).

Fewer Canadians hold positive views on the way Green Party leader Elizabeth May (32%, =), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (20%, -2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (also 20%, +4) are handling their duties.

When asked which federal party leader would make the “Best Prime Minister”, Trudeau and Poilievre are tied at 28%, followed by Singh with 17%. On this particular question, Trudeau has lost five points since February, while Poilievre has gained three.

More than two-in-five Canadians (44%, -3) are satisfied with what the Liberals and the NDP have accomplished since they established a supply and confidence agreement in March 2022.

The Liberal-NDP deal is popular in Ontario (51%), but garners lower support in Atlantic Canada (45%), Quebec (also 45%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (41%), Alberta (35%) and British Columbia (33%).

Practically equal proportions of Canadians say they would be comfortable with Trudeau (44%, =) or Poilievre (42%, +2) being in charge of Canada’s economy.

One-in-four Canadians (25%, +4) identify housing, homelessness and poverty as the most important issue facing the country, followed by health care (24%, -2), the economy and jobs (20%, -6) and the environment (10%, +3).

Methodology: Results are based on an online study conducted from September 2 to September 4, 2023, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e]