Florida and Ohio Are Red States in U.S. Midterm Election

Democratic incumbents in Illinois and New York head to Election Day with significant leads. 

Vancouver, BC [November 7, 2022] – The U.S. Senate contests in the states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are remarkably close on the eve of the midterm election in the United States, according to a series of new polls conducted by Research Co. in ten American states.

The surveys of Americans who have already participated in the democratic process or plan to do so tomorrow also show Republican candidates dominating the Senate and Governor’s races in Florida and Ohio, and their Democratic counterparts with healthy leads in California, Illinois and New York


In 2020, Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Martha McSally in a U.S. Senate special election with 51,2% of the vote. In this month’s contest, Kelly holds a four-point lead over GOP challenger Blake Masters (51% to 47%), with Libertarian Marc Victor at 2%.

In the Grand Canyon State’s gubernatorial election, Republican Kari Lake has a two-point edge over Democrat Katie Hobbs (51% to 49%).


Voters in California will take part in two U.S. Senate elections: a special contest to fill a seat until January 2023 and a regular contest to choose a Senator for a six-year term. In each election, Democrat Alex Padilla holds a sizeable advantage over Republican Mark Meuser (63% to 37%).

Incumbent Gavin Newsom of the Democratic Party has a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Brian Dahle in the gubernatorial election (60% to 40%).

Practically seven-in-ten decided voters in the Golden State (69%) say they will vote “Yes” on Proposition 1 which seeks to amend the California Constitution to expressly include an individual’s fundamental right to reproductive freedom.


In the Sunshine State, incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of the Republican Party has a double-digit advantage over Democratic challenger Val Demmings (54% to 44%).

Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis is also heavily favoured to win a new term in office in his contest against former governor Charlie Crist (56% to 42%).


The U.S. Senate election in the Peach State may have to be decided in a run-off, with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver garnering the support of 1% of decided voters. Challenger Herschel Walker of the Republican Party and incumbent U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock of the Democratic Party are tied with 49% each.

In the gubernatorial election, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp has a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams (53% to 46%).


Democrat Tammy Duckworth appears headed to a new six-year term in the U.S. Senate, with a sizeable advantage over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi (58% to 40%).

In the Prairie State’s gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat J. B. Pritzker is 20 points ahead of Republican rival Darren Bailey (59% to 39%).


Democratic U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, first elected in 2016, is trailing GOP challenger Adam Laxalt by a single point (48% to 49%).

In the Silver State’s gubernatorial election, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak is also slightly behind Republican contender Joe Lombardo (47% to 49%).

New York

Voters in the Empire State give incumbent U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer of the Democratic Party a substantial lead over GOP challenger Joe Pinion (59% to 39%).

In the gubernatorial election, former Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul of the Democratic Party has a double-digit lead over Republican candidate Lee Zeldin (55% to 45%).


In the Buckeye State’s election to the U.S. Senate, J.D. Vance holds an eight-point advantage over Democrat Tim Ryan (54% to 46%).

Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine has a larger lead over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley (61% to 39%).


In the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Pat Toomey, Democratic candidate John Fetterman is barely ahead of Republican contender Mehmet Oz (49% to 48%).

The contest for the governor’s office in the Keystone State is not as tight. Democrat Josh Shapiro has a 12-point lead over Republican Doug Mastriano (55% to 43%).


Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson, first elected in 2010, has a six-point lead over Democratic rival Mandela Barnes in the Badger State (53% to 47%).

In the race for governor, incumbent Tony Evers of the Democratic Party and challenger Tim Michels of the Republican Party are tied with the support of 50% of decided voters each.

Results are based on online surveys conducted from November 4 to November 6, 2022, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in ten American states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.

778.929.0490 [e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca