Fewer Canadians Are Happy with Liberal Minority than in 2019

The NDP ran a “positive” campaign for 54% of Canadian voters, but only 24% feel the same way about the People’s Party.  

Vancouver, BC [September 27, 2021] – Canadians who cast a ballot in the 44th federal election are not as enthused about the plausible formation of the government as they were two years ago, a new Research Co. “exit poll” has found.  

In the online survey of a representative national sample of Canadians who voted in this year’s federal election, 42% say they would be happy with a minority government led by the Liberal Party, while 49% would be upset.  

In the Research Co. “exit poll” released after the 2019 federal election, 49% of Canadian voters were happy with a Liberal minority mandate, while 45% were upset.  

Canadian voters are divided when assessing the prospect of a formal governing agreement between the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP). Across the country, 44% say they would be happy if this scenario ultimately materializes, while 45% would be upset.  

“Compared to 2019, there is a significant shift in the way Canadian voters look at formal cooperation between the Liberals and New Democrats,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Two years ago, more than half of voters (56%) welcomed such a deal, but the proportion has fallen by 12 points after the most recent federal election.”  

Almost half of Canadian voters (48%) say they made up their minds about which party to support in the federal election before the campaign began—a proportion that rises to 55% among those aged 55 and over, 55% in Atlantic Canada and 52% in Ontario.  

Across the country, 14% of Canadian voters say they decided which party to support on the final week of the campaign. This finding is fairly consistent across most contending parties, from a high of 17% among those who voted for the Greens to a low of 10% among those who cast ballots for the Conservatives.  

More than half of Canadian voters (54%) describe the NDP’s electoral campaign as “very positive” or “moderately positive.”  The results on this question are lower for the Liberal Party (44%), the Conservative Party (43%), the Green Party (31%) and the People’s Party (24%).  

While only 21% of Canadian voters feel the campaign of the Bloc Québécois was positive, the proportion rises to 42% in Quebec.   Practically half of Canadian voters (49%) say they voted for the candidate in their riding who had the best chance of defeating a party they disliked, even if the candidate they voted for was not their first preference.  

“Strategic voting” was more prevalent among Canadian voters aged 18-to-34 (66%) than among their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (49%) and aged 55 and over (40%).  

More than half of Canadians who voted for the Bloc Québécois (56%) and the Conservatives (53%) say they cast their ballots strategically. The numbers are lower among those who supported the Liberals (49%), the Greens (48%), the People’s Party (also 48%) and the New Democrats (38%).

Results are based on an online study conducted from September 18 to September 21, 2021, among 1,900 adults in Canada who voted in the 2021 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 2.3 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.