Liberals Stay Ahead as Conservative Support Falls in Canada

Two-in-five Canadians think Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister, as Erin O’Toole drops to 15% on this question.

Vancouver, BC [March 18, 2021] – Public support for the governing Liberal Party remains stable in Canada since the end of last year, while fewer voters are willing to cast a ballot for the Conservative Party, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 37% of decided voters in Canada would back the Liberal candidate in their constituency if a federal election were held tomorrow, unchanged since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in December 2020.

The Conservatives are in second place with 28% (-3), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (=), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (=), the Green Party with 6% (+3) and the People’s Party with 1% (=).

The Liberals hold a three-point edge over the Conservatives among male decided voters (34% to 31%). Among female decided voters, the Liberals are also first (40%), with the Conservatives and New Democrats tied at 24%.

Support for the Liberal Party is strongest among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (41%, with the NDP in second place with 27%). The governing party is also ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (35%, with the Conservatives at 30%) and aged 55 and over (37% to 29%).

More than two-in-five decided voters in Atlantic Canada (46%), Quebec (43%) and Ontario (42%) are currently backing the Liberals, while the Conservatives are leading in Alberta (46%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (41%). In British Columbia, the New Democrats are slightly ahead of the Liberals (31% to 29%), with the Conservatives in third place (26%).

The approval rating for Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau stands at 56% this month (+1) and is higher among women (60%) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (67%).

A third of Canadians (33%, -2) are satisfied with the performance of Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, a proportion that jumps to 47% among Albertans.

“In September 2020, Canadians were divided in three identical groups when assessing O’Toole’s performance as leader,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Since then, disapproval has risen by 12 points to 46%, and the level of undecideds has fallen from 33% to 21%.”

Since December, the approval rating for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh remains stable (46%, =). The numbers improved for Green Party leader Annamie Paul (30%, +5) and fell slightly for People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (15%, -2).

Trudeau maintains a sizeable advantage over his rivals when Canadians are asked who would make the best prime minister of the country (40%, +1). O’Toole is a distant second on this question with 15% (-7), followed by Singh (12%, -1), Paul (3%, +1), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (2%, =) and Bernier (2%, -1).

A third of Canadians (33%, +5) believe health care is the most important issue facing the country today, followed by the economy and jobs (24%, -3), COVID-19 (11%, -4), housing, homelessness and poverty (9%, =) and the environment (7%, +1).

Results are based on an online study conducted from March 13 to March 15, 2020, among 1,000 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error – which measures sample variability – is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our data tables here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.