Half of British Columbians Expect an Early Provincial Election

Residents aged 18-to-34 are more likely to say they would like to vote this year than their older counterparts.

Vancouver, BC [February 5, 2020] – A sizeable proportion of British Columbians believe the province will hold an early election to the Legislative Assembly this year, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 51% of British Columbians expect to have an early provincial election this year, while one third (32%) do not and 16% are undecided.

British Columbians aged 18-to-34 (62%) are more likely to expect an early election in 2020 than their counterparts aged 35-to-54 (47%) and aged 55 and over (35%).

When asked if they would like to have an early provincial ballot in 2020, a slim majority of British Columbians (52%) said they would, while 32% answered that they would not. The next provincial election in British Columbia is tentatively scheduled for October 2021.

On a regional basis, the appetite for an early election is strongest in Northern BC (75%), followed by Southern BC (52%), Metro Vancouver (also 52%), the Fraser Valley (50%) and Vancouver Island (49%).

“Almost two thirds of British Columbians who voted for the BC Liberals in 2017 (65%) say they would like to hold an early election this year,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The proportion is lower among those who voted for the BC Green Party (55%) and the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (42%) in 2017.”

Across the province, three-in-five British Columbians (60%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the BC NDP in the next provincial election. The voter pool is lower for the BC Liberals (54%), the BC Conservative Party (46%) and the BC Green Party (45%).

The BC NDP holds the edge over the BC Liberals on currently having a definite or probable consideration from voters in Metro Vancouver (62% to 53%). Conversely, the BC Liberals have a higher commitment from voters than the BC NDP in Southern BC (61% to 50%).

In Vancouver Island, the Green Party is slightly ahead with 53%, with the BC NDP and the BC Liberals both at 51%.

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from January 21 to January 24, 2020, among 800 adults in British Columbia. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:

Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca