Stewart Keeps Lead as Vancouver Mayoral Election Looms

More than half of voters are considering independent candidates for City Council.

Vancouver, BC [October 16, 2018] – Independent candidate Kennedy Stewart remains ahead as Vancouver’s mayoral campaign enters its final days, a new Research Co. poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of City of Vancouver voters reproduced the ballot that will be used in the mayoral election, with the names of all 21 candidates listed in the order that was drawn last month.

In the survey, 36% of decided voters (+2 since early October) said they will vote for Stewart or have already voted for him in the advance polls.

Ken Sim of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is second with 23% (+3), followed closely by independent candidate Shauna Sylvester with 19% (+3).

Support is currently lower for Hector Bremner of Yes Vancouver (6%, -4), Wai Young of Coalition Vancouver (6%, -1), Fred Harding of VANCOUVER 1st (2%, -2) and David Chen of ProVancouver (2%, -5).

One third of voters in the City of Vancouver (33%) are undecided, including 41% of those aged 18-to-34 and 43% of women.

“Many Vancouver voters are still making up their minds about the candidates and parties they will support on October 20,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “This group includes three-in-ten of those who voted for Kirk LaPointe in the last mayoral election, and more than a quarter of those who cast a ballot for Gregor Robertson.”

Sim and Stewart are virtually tied among male decided voters (32% and 31% respectively), while Stewart leads among female decided voters (42%, followed by Sylvester at 25%).

When it comes to the election for City Council, more than half of voters in Vancouver (53%) say they are “definitely” or “probably” considering voting for independent candidates.

The parties with the highest level of consideration for City Council from Vancouver voters are the Greens (47%), the NPA (35%), the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) (34%), Vision Vancouver (29%) and OneCity (27%).

Consideration is currently lower for City Council candidates representing YES Vancouver (18%), VANCOUVER 1st (also 18%), Coalition Vancouver (also 18%) and ProVancouver (16%).

Methodology:

Results are based on an online study conducted from October 12 to October 14, 2018, among 401 voters in the City of Vancouver, including 265 decided voters in the 2018 mayoral election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in the City of Vancouver. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.9 percentage points for the entire sample and +/- 6.0 percentage points for the sample of decided voters, nineteen times out of twenty.

Find our full data set here and download the press release here. 

For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
[c] 778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca