In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Vancouver, BC [November 3, 2025] – The candidates for the Democratic Party head to tomorrow’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey in different circumstances, according to two new polls conducted by Research Co. in Virginia and New Jersey.
The surveys of voters who have already cast their ballot in the elections or plan to do so tomorrow show a significant advantage for the Democrats in the Old Dominion State, and a closer race in the Garden State.
Virginia
Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the 2021 gubernatorial race in Virginia (51% to 49%). The Old Dominion State does not allow incumbent governors to serve consecutive terms.
More than half of decided voters in Virginia (54%) would back Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger in this year’s gubernatorial election, while 46% would cast a ballot for Republican contender Winsome Earle-Sears.
Earle-Sears has her best showing among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (53% to 47%), while Spanberger is ahead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (58% to 42%) and aged 55 and over (55% to 45%).
About one-in-six decided voters who supported the GOP’s Youngkin in 2021 (15%) are backing Spanberger in 2025.
New Jersey
In the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election, incumbent Democratic Party governor Phil Murphy defeated Republican Party candidate Jack Ciattarelli (51% to 48%). The Garden State has a two consecutive term limit for governors.
The 2025 gubernatorial race in New Jersey is very similar to the previous one, with Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill holding a three-point edge over Republican Ciattarelli among decided voters (51% to 48%), with 1% going to Libertarian candidate Vic Kaplan.
Ciattarelli does particularly well with decided voters aged 55 and over (57% to 43%), while Sherrill holds the upper hand with decided voters aged 35-to-54 (52% to 46%) and aged 18-to-34 (58% to 41%).
More than half of decided voters who are Independent (54%) would support Sherrill tomorrow, while 43% would back Ciattarelli and 3% would support Kaplan.
Methodology: Results are based on online studies conducted on November 2 and November 3, 2025, among representative samples of 450 likely voters in two American states: New Jersey and Virginia. The data has been statistically weighted according to U.S. census figures for age and gender in each state. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 4.6 percentage points for each state.
Find our data tables here and download the press release here.
For more information on this poll, please contact:
Mario Canseco, President, Research Co.
778.929.0490
[e] mario.canseco@researchco.ca